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Rays Claim Tyler Alexander From Tigers

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The Rays have claimed left-hander Tyler Alexander off waivers from the Tigers, according to announcements from both clubs. The Tigers had designated the lefty for assignment earlier this week.

Alexander, 29, will join a new organization for the first time in his career. He was selected by the Tigers in the second round of the 2015 draft and has been with that club in some fashion for close to a decade now. He pitched for the big league club in a swing capacity over the past five years, making 120 appearances since the start of 2019, including 43 starts. He logged 341 1/3 innings in that time with a 4.38 earned run average, 18.9% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.

In 2023, he was moved to the bullpen on essentially a full-time basis, making just one start that lasted three innings. He threw 44 innings over 25 appearances in total with a 4.50 ERA, though perhaps deserved better. His 24.3% strikeout rate and 2.8% walk rate were both better than average, the latter number especially so. His 65.3% strand rate was a bit on the unlucky side, leading to ERA estimators looking at him through a relatively rosier lens, such as a 4.10 FIP and 3.48 SIERA.

In early July, Alexander landed on the injured list due to a left lat/shoulder strain and wasn’t able to return. There’s no injured list during the offseason, so the Tigers opted to cut him loose instead of adding him back onto the roster. It was effectively an early non-tender, with Alexander set to go through that process for a second time. He made $1.875MM in 2023 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a salary of $2MM in 2024.

It appears the Rays are willing to add Alexander at something near that price point, otherwise there would be little point in claiming him just before next week’s non-tender deadline. Assuming they plan to keep utilizing him out of the bullpen, he will join Colin Poche and Garrett Cleavinger as the club’s southpaw relief options. Alexander is still optionable and has another potential year of arb control remaining, perhaps allowing him to serve as a long-term depth piece for the Rays.

Twins Could Pursue First Base Addition

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The Twins snapped the longest postseason losing streak in North American sports this year when they swept the Blue Jays out of the Wild Card round before falling 3-1 in an ALDS loss to the Astros. They’ll head into the offseason facing the potential loss of Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, but there are also other areas of need on the roster. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated to Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that his club could also be in the market for an addition to their first base mix.

“With [Alex Kirilloff] and with potential external additions, it’ll probably be an area we do spend some time this offseason from free agent or trade perspective,” Falvey said of his team’s first base outlook.

Kirilloff, a longtime top prospect whose career trajectory has been altered by persistent wrist and shoulder injuries, served as the Twins’ primary first baseman when healthy in 2023. Free agents Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo also logged significant time at first base. There’s yet to be any indication the Twins plan to re-sign either. Gallo, in particular, seems likely to depart.

The 26-year-old Kirilloff turned in a very sound .270/.348/.445 batting line with 11 home runs in 319 plate appearances, but he also had multiple shoulder-related IL stints before ultimately undergoing surgery at season’s end. That procedure, Nightengale writes, was actually less invasive than the Twins originally anticipated, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

That said, it’s hard to bank on Kirilloff assuming the position on a full-time basis next year. The Twins thought highly enough of the former first-round pick to give him his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason, and he’s now spent parts of three seasons on the MLB roster. However, this past campaign’s 88 games and 319 plate appearances are both career-highs. Kirilloff’s 2021 and 2022 seasons ended with wrist surgery.

There’s little doubting Kirilloff’s raw abilities. He was the 15th overall draft pick in 2016 and hit a combined .324/.381/.525 in the minors — including a gaudy .366/.458/.673 in 53 Triple-A games. Prior to his MLB debut, he peaked as the game’s No. 15 overall prospect at Baseball America and climbed as high as ninth on MLB.com’s top 100 rankings. Even with the past wrist issues and ongoing shoulder troubles in ’23, he was a well above-average hitter. But his ability to remain on the field and the extent to which he can recover from a third notable surgery in three years are both open questions.

The Twins have alternatives at the position. Rookie infielder Edouard Julien, a top-100 prospect in his own right, hit the big league scene with a .263/.381/.459 batting line and 16 home runs as a rookie in 408 plate appearances this season. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there are questions about his ability to handle that spot long term and Julien already logged some time at first base. With Jorge Polanco entrenched at second base, slotting Julien in at first base and designated hitter could get his bat into the lineup more regularly. Of course, the Twins’ wealth of young infield talent makes Polanco an obvious trade candidate, and if he’s moved, that’d clear a spot for Julien at second base and Kirilloff and/or an external acquisition at first base.

Also in the mix is Jose Miranda — yet another former top prospect who broke through with a terrific rookie showing in 2022 before regressing in 2023 and eventually requiring a shoulder surgery of his own. Miranda batted .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs in 125 games as a rookie in ’22 but limped to a .211/.263/.303 line in 40 big league games this past season. His work in Triple-A wasn’t any better, and he wound up being diagnosed with a shoulder impingement that resulted in September surgery. Still just 25 years of age, a healthy Miranda could work his way back into the mix as well.

Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t short on in-house options. The looming possibility of a Polanco trade (thus opening second base for Julien), uncertainty surrounding the health/durability of Kirilloff and Miranda, and the hopeful opening of some at-bats at the designated hitter position could all pave the way for Minnesota to bring in a bat, though. Byron Buxton spent the bulk of the 2023 season as a designated hitter due to lingering complications from last winter’s knee surgery, but the Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to return to center field in 2024, per Falvey. That’d be a boon both offensively and defensively, if he’s able to do so.

The offseason market at first base isn’t exactly deep in terms of star power, though Rhys Hoskins stands as a prominent name on the open market (assuming his own recovery from a torn ACL progresses as expected). Brandon Belt is also available, though he’s a strict platoon option and bats from the same side of the plate as the left-handed Kirilloff. Buy-low options include Garrett Cooper and old friend C.J. Cron. Pete Alonso’s name has been kicked around the trade market, but Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said this week that he does not anticipate trading the star slugger (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic).

The Twins are expected to reduce payroll this coming season, albeit not drastically so. Revenue losses stemming from the collapse of their television deal under Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy create uncertainty in Minnesota, where Roster Resource currently projects them for a $125MM payroll. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the team’s payroll would likely settle between $125-140MM. Trading Polanco ($10.5MM), Max Kepler ($10MM) and/or Christian Vazquez ($10MM) would create some breathing room, as could a trade or non-tender of utility infielder Kyle Farmer (projected $6.6MM arbitration salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

Nationals Add Gerardo Parra, Chris Johnson To Coaching Staff

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The Nationals announced their coaching staff for the 2024 season on Friday, confirming their previously reported hiring of bench coach Miguel Cairo and also revealing that former big leaguers Gerardo Parra and Chris Johnson will be on manager Davey Martinez’s staff next year. Parra, who played a key role with the Nationals in their World Series Championship 2019 season, will be the team’s first base coach. Johnson, who spent the 2023 season as an assistant hitting coach with the White Sox, will hold the same role in Washington.

Parra, 36, spent parts of a dozen seasons in the big leagues between the D-backs, Rockies, Nats, Brewers, Giants and Orioles in addition to one season with Japan’s Yomiuri Giants in 2020. He spent half the 2019 season with the Nats but played a significant role in their Cinderella run to a World Series title, operating as a key bench piece for Martinez and endearing himself both to the fanbase and in the clubhouse as a veteran leader. Parra famously co-opted “Baby Shark” as his walkup music and as a celebration/rallying cry for the Nats that year. He returned for a second stint with the Nats in ’21 before calling it quits as a player and joining the team’s front office as a special assistant.

Johnson, 39, retired as a player after the 2019 season. He spent parts of eight years in the Majors between Houston, Atlanta, Arizona, Cleveland and Miami, batting a combined .275/.313/.404 with 63 homers in just shy of 3000 plate appearances. His last contract was a minor league deal with the White Sox, who hired him as their Triple-A hitting coach prior to the 2021 season. He served in that role until joining the big league staff this past season. The Sox opted not to bring Johnson back for the 2024 campaign, with Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writing at season’s end that the team’s hitters were “torn between multiple hitting voices” on the team’s coaching staff. Presumably, Johnson’s philosophies better align with those of Coles — the veteran hitting coach who’ll be entering his third season with the Nationals.

Returning to the Nats’ staff in 2024 will be hitting coach Darnell Coles, pitching coach Jim Hickey, catching coach Henry Blanco and bullpen coach Ricky Bones. Ricky Gutierrez, who served as the team’s run prevention coordinator in 2023, will be the club’s new third base coach.

Luis Severino Drawing Widespread Interest

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Free agent right-hander Luis Severino is drawing plenty of attention around the league, reports Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. As many as eight teams have made their interest known, though Kuty says the Yankees aren’t believed to be one of them.

Severino will be an interesting bounceback candidate in this winter’s market since he previously was one of the best pitchers in the game but his recent struggles should significantly hamper his market. Over 2017 and 2018, he made 63 starts and logged 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He struck out 28.8% of batters faced and walked just 6.2% of them, while also keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, with only four pitchers ahead of him in that category: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.

Going into 2019, the Yankees locked him up with a four-year, $40MM contract with a $15MM option for 2023. Unfortunately, he was injured for most of the next three seasons. In 2019, he was only able to make three starts due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and most of his 2021 season. In 2022, he again dealt with lat issues but was able to throw 102 innings over 19 starts with a 3.18 ERA, then a couple more starts in the postseason.

The Yanks felt good enough with that return to trigger the option but 2023 didn’t go well. Another lat strain kept him out of action until May and an oblique strain ended his season in September. In between, he tossed 89 1/3 innings with a 6.65 ERA. His strikeout rate dropped to 18.9%, after being at 27.7% last year, which was pretty close to his peak.

Despite that rough season, it’s understandable that teams would still be intrigued, though it appears the Yankees may not be one of them. They will likely pursue some kind of starting pitcher, based on their current rotation. Gerrit Cole is likely to grab a Cy Young next week based on his excellent campaign, but there’s little certainty beyond that. Both Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes are coming off injury-marred seasons. Michael King showed promise in his move from the bullpen to the rotation but he’s still fairly inexperienced as a starter. Clarke Schmidt could be in the back end after posting a 4.64 ERA this year. The Yanks aren’t likely to be satisfied with that group and could perhaps circle back to Severino later but he may not be the first name on the list.

This winter’s market has some less risky pitchers to bank on, but guys like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will likely require nine-figure guarantees. Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga might come in just under the nine-figure line. Not every team will be willing to shop on Main Street and some will be combing the beach looking for buried treasure.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted a contract of one year and $14MM for Severino this winter. Assuming his market is indeed in that range, plenty of teams will be willing to take the risk, particularly if they have a plan of how to get the best results out of him. Despite the injuries, Severino’s fastball averaged 96.5 mph in 2023. That’s a bit down from 2018, when he was at 97.6, but not by much. It’s also higher than the 96.3 mph he averaged in 2022, when he was still quite effective. His slider saw a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in 2023 whereas it would sit 88-89 prior to his lengthy injury absences. But again, he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider averaging 85.1 mph.

Kuty relays that Severino is back to throwing, having rehabbed from the oblique strain that ended his most recent campaign. His recent track record makes him a significant wild card, but one that will surely be played at some point in the coming months.

The Opener: Yamamoto, Free Agent Contest, MLBTR Chat

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As the early days of the offseason continue, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on…

1. When will Yamamoto be posted?

Earlier this week, the Orix Buffaloes announced shortly after their loss in Game 7 of the Japan Series to the Hanshin Tigers that they have approved the posting of star right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the club’s approval secured, the final step before Yamamoto is officially a free agent available to MLB clubs is for him to be officially posted, after which point he will have a 45-day window during which he can sign with any club in the majors. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi recently suggested that Yamamoto’s posting window is expected to open in the near future, likely sometime next week.

Yamamoto, of course, is perhaps the most exciting pitching free agent on the market. Set to hit free agency at just 25 years old, he’s dominated NPB hitters to the tune of a 1.42 ERA in 557 2/3 innings of work the past three seasons. While scouts and teams are often uncertain about how foreign stars will adjust to stateside ball, Yamamoto is something of an exception to that; he’s widely regarded as a potentially ace-caliber arm and a clear front of the rotation starter for an MLB club. That combination of youth and talent secured Yamamoto the #3 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top-50 free agents list, where we projected him for a nine-year, $225MM deal.

2. MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest:

This year’s MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest will remain open through Monday evening at 11pm CT. If you haven’t made your picks yet but still want to enter, you can take some time this weekend to do so! The contest is free to enter, and the top three finishers will receive cash prizes of $500, $300 and $100, respectively. The top 15 finishers will also receive a free yearlong subscription to our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which in addition to ad-free viewing also comes with access to weekly email content, a weekly subscriber-only chat, access to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. Once the contest is closed, we’ll launch a leaderboard so you can see how you’re faring both against other entrants and the MLBTR staff! You can read more about the contest here and click here to enter your picks!

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the offseason ramping up, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1pm CT to tackle questions about free agency, trades and more. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and to read a transcript after the chat is complete.

White Sox Not Expected To Match Franchise-Record Payroll

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After a dismal season, the White Sox enter the winter with weaknesses throughout the roster. First-year general manager Chris Getz is tasked with turning things around. He may have to do so with a tighter budget than was afforded to the front office last offseason.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the ChiSox opened 2023 with roughly $181MM on the books. That’s around $12MM shy of their ’22 figure, the highest in franchise history. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reports that the Sox are unlikely to match the franchise-record mark and suggests they could scale back relative to their ’23 spending level as well.

While that’ll be disheartening news for the fanbase, it’s worth noting that could still leave Getz and his front office with a decent amount of leeway. Chicago has around $84.5MM in guaranteed commitments for 2024. The arbitration class is projected for around $17MM. There’s a significant gap between the roughly $101MM they have committed for next season and the $180-190MM range. Even if ownership is unwilling to push back to those levels, there could be room for Getz to make multiple free agent acquisitions.

How advisable attacking the middle tiers of free agency would be for the organization is another matter. Getz flatly acknowledged the roster is “not a well-rounded club” at this week’s GM Meetings. Dylan Cease is the team’s lone above-average starting pitcher. Michael Kopech is the only other in-house option who seems likely to occupy a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Chicago offloaded a few veteran relievers at the trade deadline. While a sensible course of action, they’re left without much beyond Gregory Santos, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet.

The position player group is similarly top-heavy. Luis Robert Jr. is a star center fielder. Andrew Benintendi is locked into left field for the second season of a five-year contract. Andrew Vaughn figures to get another crack at first base. Eloy Jiménez and Yoán Moncada have had productive seasons in the past but are coming off disappointing campaigns. Chicago could use multiple middle infielders after buying out Tim Anderson. Rookie right fielder Oscar Colás struggled in his first big league action. Korey Lee isn’t likely to provide much offensively if the Sox give him an opportunity at catcher.

Addressing that all in one offseason would be difficult regardless of the budget. It doesn’t appear as if the club will orchestrate a complete teardown and rebuild, although Getz has pushed back against categorizing anyone as truly untouchable. The first order of business was reshuffling the coaching staff under second-year manager Pedro Grifol. With that complete, the front office takes on the much more challenging task of reshaping a very flawed roster.

Cubs Will Give Christopher Morel Reps At First Base

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The Cubs are planning to get slugger Christopher Morel some work at first base in winter ball this offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at this week’s GM Meetings (link via Meaghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). The 24-year-old Morel has impressed the club with his power through his first season-plus in the big leagues but has yet to settle into a defensive home. Hoyer noted that Morel is a “very capable second baseman,” but the presence of Nico Hoerner there and Dansby Swanson at shortstop clouds Morel’s positional outlook.

Morel made his big league debut with the Cubs in 2022, appearing in 113 games and taking 425 plate appearances while bouncing all over the field. He logged a nearly identical amount of playing time in a similar role this past season. On the whole, he’s played in 220 games, taken 854 plate appearances, and posted a combined .241/.311/.471 slash with 42 home runs and 16 steals.

The power Morel has to offer is obvious, but it comes with some red flags as well; Morel has fanned in 31.6% of his plate appearances. Though he draws walks at a roughly average 8.7% clip, the frequent punchouts lead to low batting averages and drag down his overall on-base percentage. Couple that with sub-par defensive grades at every position other than second base, and he’s been something of a square peg in a round hole on the Cubs’ roster.

Looking to the 2024 season, however, Chicago doesn’t have an obvious solution at first base. Free agent Cody Bellinger manned that position frequently in 2023 after a head-scratching run with Eric Hosmer didn’t pan out and after prospect Matt Mervis failed to hit the ground running. Mervis is still just 25 and has posted video game numbers in two Triple-A seasons, but he batted only .167/.242/.289 in 99 big league plate appearances during his debut. He could get another look this season, but Morel has already produced at the plate in the big leagues, so there’s plenty of sense in taking the offseason to see if he can handle the position to get his bat into the lineup.

Of course, given the lack of a clear fit on the Cubs’ roster, it’s only natural to wonder whether Morel might end up being utilized as a trade chip. Montemurro suggests such a path is possible for the Cubs, and Hoyer himself followed his comment about Morel being a capable second baseman by noting that “another team might be able to put him [at second base].” That said, Hoyer also noted that finding a defensive home for Morel on the Cubs’ roster “would be really valuable,” noting that first base specifically fits the Cubs’ needs.

There’s no definitive declaration that Morel will be shopped this winter, but it’s easy enough to see the appeal. Questions about his hit tool notwithstanding, when Morel does make contact, it’s typically quite loud. Beyond the raw home run numbers, he was in the 91st percentile or better in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Statcast. He also boasts 81st percentile sprint speed and 99th percentile arm strength on his throws (which would seem something of a waste at first base).

On top of the loud tools, Morel has less than two years of big league service time. Any club acquiring him would be picking up five years of control over him. Morel probably won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2025 season, although he’s on track to finish the 2024 campaign right on the cusp of Super Two eligibility, so there’s some chance that’ll come after the 2024 campaign. Regardless, he’s under team control through the 2028 season.

Padres Interview Phil Nevin In Managerial Search

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The Padres interviewed former Angels manager Phil Nevin yesterday, report Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (X link). San Diego continues to search for Bob Melvin’s replacement in the dugout.

Nevin managed a season and a half in Anaheim. He took over on an interim basis when the Angels dismissed Joe Maddon in June 2022. The Halos signed Nevin to a one-year extension at the beginning of last offseason. After a second consecutive 73-89 finish, the Angels declined an option to retain him for 2024. They tabbed Ron Washington as their new skipper yesterday.

In addition to that managerial stint in Orange County, Nevin has a long track record as a coach. He spent a year as the third base coach for the Giants, held the same position with the Yankees for five seasons, and was the Halos’ third base coach before replacing Maddon. The Fullerton product has plenty of ties to the San Diego organization. He played for the Padres between 1999-2005, twice securing down-ballot MVP votes during that run.

While Nevin’s interview indicates he’s a legitimate candidate for the San Diego job, he may be behind a pair of internal options. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt interviewed early in the process. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this evening that Shildt is the favorite for the position.

Latest On Brewers’ Offseason Approach

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The Brewers are open to trade offers on the majority of their roster, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While that’s standard procedure for most teams — especially smaller-market franchises — Rosenthal suggests that Milwaukee could be more amenable than they had been in previous offseasons to moving notable players.

Around this time last offseason, Milwaukee was reportedly telling teams they weren’t interested in dealing Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames. It doesn’t seem they’re being quite so definitive this time around. At the same time, that doesn’t guarantee any of those players will be on the move.

Woodruff doesn’t hold much trade value at this point anyhow. The All-Star righty underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the bulk of next season. He’s on track to hit free agency after that year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $11.6MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract. There’s a chance Milwaukee cuts him loose for nothing before next Friday’s non-tender deadline.

Burnes would have immense trade appeal, while Adames would be a valuable asset in his own right. The former is one of the sport’s best pitchers and would likely be the best starter available if the Brewers seriously considered dealing him. The 2021 Cy Young winner worked to a 3.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings this year. He reached the 200 strikeout mark for a third straight season, fanning 25.5% of opponents. While a less impressive showing than Burnes’ three consecutive sub-3.00 ERA years between 2020-22, that’s still very strong production.

Swartz projects him for a salary just above $15MM in his final season of team control. The projected outlay on Adames checks in at $12.4MM. The 28-year-old shortstop is coming off a relative down season. He hit .217/.310/.411 across 638 trips to the plate. That’s well below the .256/.325/.483 line he’d posted between his acquisition from the Rays in May 2021 and the end of the ’22 season.

Despite the dip in offense, Adames would have strong trade appeal. He’s an excellent defender at the infield’s most demanding position. He still connected on 24 home runs and has topped 20 longballs in each of the last four full seasons. A dismal free agent shortstop class leaves other teams without many alternatives.

It is generally expected that Burnes and Adames will price themselves out of Milwaukee when they reach free agency. The Brewers could expect a stronger trade return this offseason than they would if they shopped either player at the deadline — an acquiring team would not only get a full year of their services, they’d be able to make them a qualifying offer next winter.

Moving either player would deal a notable blow to Milwaukee’s hopes of repeating as NL Central champions, though. Between Woodruff’s injury and Wade Miley hitting free agency, the Brew Crew are already thin on the rotation front. The aforementioned middle infield shortage would make it difficult to effectively replace Adames on a low-cost free agent pickup.

The Brewers have made one trade this offseason, sending Mark Canha to the Tigers in lieu of an $11.5MM club option. Moving either Burnes or Adames would be a much tougher decision. Milwaukee has around $36MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class is projected for nearly $65MM, although non-tenders of Woodruff and Rowdy Tellez would trim almost $18MM from that estimate. The Brewers opened the 2023 season with a player payroll in the $119MM range, so retaining Burnes and Adames should be financially viable.

Various others on the Milwaukee roster are sure to be the subject of interest from rival teams. Devin Williams would be one of the most in-demand relievers, while Adrian Houser could hold appeal to clubs looking for starting pitching. It’s hard to envision the Brewers orchestrating a full teardown — the organization has instead sought perpetual contention by moving select players as they get closer to free agency — but there are various options on the table for GM Matt Arnold over the coming months.

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