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Zack Greinke Undecided On Future

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Six-time All-Star Zack Greinke is still mulling whether he’ll continue his career in 2024, Royals general manager J.J. Picollo told Jon Morosi of MLB.com at this week’s GM Meetings. The former Cy Young winner and likely Hall of Famer turned 40 in October.

Greinke has spent the past two seasons pitching with Kansas City — the same team that drafted and developed him. It’s been a full-circle homecoming and feel-good story for a lot of Royals fans, though the 2023 season didn’t go nearly as well as the 2022 campaign. In Greinke’s return to K.C. back in ’22, he tossed 137 innings of 3.68 ERA ball. That earned run average spiked to 5.06 over the life of 142 1/3 innings in 2023 — a season that saw Greinke post a 2-15 record. That mark has as much to do with a dismal Royals roster as it does with Greinke’s overall performance, but it surely wasn’t what Greinke envisioned heading into the year.

A return for his age-40 season afford Greinke the chance to reach at least one major milestone. He’s currently sitting at 2979 strikeouts in his career, and while he’s not the prolific strikeout artist he once was, he’d have no issue getting to 3000 if he returned for another full season. He’d become just the 20th pitcher in Major League history to reach that esteemed mark.

At this stage of his career, it’s not clear whether Greinke would have an appetite for pitching anywhere other than in Kansas City. He reportedly turned down similar, if not larger offers from the Twins and Tigers in the 2021-22 offseason, preferring to go back home to where his career began. He wasn’t connected to any other teams last offseason before returning to the Royals on another one-year deal. Greinke earned a $13MM base salary with the Royals in 2022 and an $8.5MM base last year — though he picked up another $4.5MM of incentives based on his innings total. Presumably, he’d be in line for a lesser base salary if he opts to return, though an agreement could have a similar incentives package based on starts and/or innings pitched.

From a team vantage point, bringing Greinke back to soak up some innings and give fans a few more memories could make sense. The Royals have struggled immensely to develop pitchers. Their vaunted crop of college arms from the 2018-20 draft classes simply hasn’t panned out to date, with only Brady Singer finding a full season’s worth of above-average production at any point. That came in 2022, but Singer took a pronounced step back in 2023. Fellow highly touted college picks like Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic and Asa Lacy have yet to emerge as viable big league starters.

Kansas City does look to have unearthed a gem in plucking Cole Ragans from the Rangers in this past summer’s Aroldis Chapman trade. The former first-rounder turned in a 2.64 ERA and 31.1% strikeout rate in 12 starts following the trade. In doing so, he locked up a 2024 rotation spot. Singer and Lynch also figure to get looks, and Kansas City still has Jordan Lyles under contract through the ’24 season as well. Greinke could eat up some innings beyond that quartet while taking pressure off some still-developing starters — if he chooses to continue his career, of course.

D-Backs, Reds, Angels Interested In Jeimer Candelario

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The Angels, Diamondbacks and Reds are among the teams that have expressed early interest in Jeimer Candelario, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Giants are also in the third base mix, per Heyman, although it’s not clear if they’re targeting Candelario specifically.

Arizona is the most straightforward of the three teams. Evan Longoria hit free agency, leaving the Snakes with a third base group headlined by Emmanuel Rivera, Jace Peterson and rookie Jordan Lawlar. The latter is one of the sport’s most talented prospects but has only 30 games above the Double-A level. Neither Rivera nor Peterson bring much to the table offensively, with both having particularly poor second halves.

Candelario would be a clear offensive boost. The switch-hitter combined for a .251/.336/.471 line with 22 home runs in 576 plate appearances between the Nationals and Cubs this year. While a dismal year in 2022 led to a non-tender from the Tigers, Candelario has been an above-average hitter in three of the last four seasons. Going back to 2020, he sports a .254/.329/.437 mark. If Lawlar steps into an everyday role at third base or shortstop (pushing Geraldo Perdomo to the hot corner), Candelario could see action at designated hitter.

That production would also be welcome for the Angels, although their internal options have lengthier track records than do Arizona’s players. The Halos owe Anthony Rendon $114MM over the next three seasons. That could lead the organization to shy away from a notable free agent investment for another third baseman (although Candelario obviously won’t come close to Rendon’s $245MM contract). The Halos have Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo to split time between second and third base, perhaps taking extra at-bats if Rendon again misses time to injury.

Candelario also has experience at first base, where things are a little unsettled for the Halos. Nolan Schanuel held the job for the final couple months of the season. That he managed a .402 on-base percentage against MLB pitching within weeks of being drafted out of Florida Atlantic is remarkable. Yet Schanuel has all of 22 career minor league games and didn’t provide any kind of power in his first big league look. It’s not out of the question he could require additional time against minor league pitching. The Halos’ outlook at DH, of course, is dependent on the Shohei Ohtani decision.

A match with the Reds would likely be conditional on Cincinnati making a trade. The Reds already have an infield glut. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte are all in the corner infield mix. Jonathan India and Matt McLain project as the starting middle infield. Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall cited a lack of playing time at first base as a factor in declining their option on Joey Votto, although the $13MM difference between the option value and the buyout was surely the biggest factor.

Starting pitching is the top priority for the Cincinnati front office. That could be accomplished by dealing away a position player. Speaking in generalities, Krall told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic that the Reds have had conversations about dealing from their talented collection of bats.

Giants Exploring Center Field, Shortstop Markets

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi identified a pair of areas the team could look to address this offseason. Speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings, he acknowledged that “center field is going to be a priority” (link via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). Zaidi added the club could look for depth at shortstop.

A desire for center field help is natural, considering Zaidi has already spoken of a goal of becoming more athletic in the outfield. Bringing in a center fielder is the most direct way of doing that, as it’d allow new skipper Bob Melvin to keep Mike Yastrzemski in a corner. Rookie Luis Matos had below-average defensive marks in his first 438 innings at the position.

Cody Bellinger is the prize of the center field market. Players like Harrison Bader, Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Kiermaier are glove-first options who’d improve the defense — albeit with a significantly lower offensive ceiling than Bellinger provides — at a much lower price.

Zaire’s stance on shortstop walks back comments from last month a little bit. At the time, the front office leader said that 22-year-old Marco Luciano would get “the chance to be the everyday guy.” While Zaidi reiterated the organization is hopeful that Luciano seizes the job, he acknowledged yesterday “it makes sense for us to have some insurance.”

That could point more towards a depth addition than a rebound flier on Tim Anderson or Amed Rosario. It’s a thin free agent class, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Ahmed and Kevin Newman among available glove-first options. Longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford is also a free agent and indicated this week that he is still deciding whether to continue his career.

Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Giants are considering an upgrade at third base. J.D. Davis played reasonably well in 2023, hitting .248/.325/.413 across 546 plate appearances. Statcast credited him with above-average defense at the hot corner, although Defensive Runs Saved was far more bearish.

Matt Chapman has ties to Melvin from their time in Oakland. He’d be a marked upgrade over Davis with the glove. Free agency’s top third baseman may not be that much better than Davis offensively, however. Chapman struggled down the stretch and finished the season with a .240/.330/.424 slash through 581 plate appearances for the Blue Jays.

Cherington: Pirates Have Focused On Starting Pitching

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Pirates general manager Ben Cherington is among the many executives who spoke with the media at the GM Meetings this week. The fifth-year baseball operations leader indicated the rotation has been the focus in the early going.

“We’ve been mostly focused on starting pitching, both in free agency and trade,” Cherington said of the offseason’s first few days (link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “We would like to add to our position player group, too. But more of our energy has gone to the pitching market early on.”

Bringing in a starter or two seems an obvious goal for the front office. Pittsburgh had five starters log 50+ innings this past season. None had an ERA better than Mitch Keller’s 4.21 mark. Rich Hill was traded and is now a free agent. Roansy Contreras had a disastrous season that saw him optioned to the minors on a couple occasions. Luis Ortiz allowed nearly five earned runs per nine with almost as many walks as strikeouts.

Despite a disappointing second half, Keller has one rotation spot secure as the current staff ace. Johan Oviedo logged 177 2/3 innings over a full slate of 32 starts. The results — a 4.31 ERA with a 20.2% strikeout percentage and lofty 10.6% walk rate — were serviceable enough that Oviedo likely goes into Spring Training with a job in hand. JT Brubaker could return midseason after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April.

That still leaves multiple vacancies, as none of Quinn Priester, Bailey Falter nor Osvaldo Bido pitched well in smaller samples. No one will expect the Bucs to make a run at Blake Snell or Aaron Nola, but they have the payroll room to add a third or fourth tier free agent. Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes are the only two players with guaranteed contracts totaling a combined $17MM next season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the arbitration class to earn roughly $16MM. The Pirates opened 2023 with a player payroll around $73MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Cherington and his group thus have the ability to consider mid-level free agent options like Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty or Michael Wacha. If they prefer the one-year route — a tack they’ve taken in prior offseasons — someone like Wade Miley or Hyun Jin Ryu could be a possibility.

They’ll need to weigh any rotation investment against what they hope to accomplish on the position player side. Cherington said the club would like to add at first base. Pittsburgh traded Carlos Santana at the deadline and relied mostly on Connor Joe and Alfonso Rivas down the stretch. Joe’s production was mostly concentrated against left-handed pitching; Rivas was waived and lost to Cleveland.

With Santana back on the open market, a reunion could be an option. Brandon Belt, Rhys Hoskins and longtime division rival Joey Votto join him in the free agent class. Rowdy Tellez and Dominic Smith are non-tender candidates.

It seems first base is the most pressing infield need for the Bucs. Cherington expressed more confidence in their internal second base options, which are headlined by Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales. None of the group had much success this year — they were 26th in OPS at the position — but it doesn’t seem an addition is a priority, even if Cherington added that they’re “not ruling out adding someone.” A middling free agent market led by Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Tim Anderson could play a role in that.

One free agent who seems likely to wind up in Pittsburgh is franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. The veteran outfielder has been clear about his desire to finish his career in the Steel City. Cherington has reciprocated that interest on multiple occasions, something he reiterated yesterday. The GM told reporters that he has had multiple conversations with McCutchen’s camp since the season ended (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).

If McCutchen returns, he’d rejoin Reynolds and Henry Davis among the corner outfield/designated hitter options. Davis, a former #1 overall pick, saw the bulk of his time in right field as a rookie. Cherington stressed the organization still views the Louisville product as a viable option at catcher, though, even if their playing time share in 2023 suggested they viewed fellow first-year backstop Endy Rodríguez as a better defender behind the plate.

Yankees Have Discussed Kevin Kiermaier

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The Yankees are in the market for multiple outfielders this winter, and one name they’ve discussed as a possibility is free agent Kevin Kiermaier, per Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. The longtime division rival has spent his entire career to this point with the Rays and the Blue Jays.

Although he’s now squarely in his mid-30s, the 34-year-old Kiermaier remains one of the preeminent defensive center fielders in baseball. He signed a one-year deal with Toronto last offseason after undergoing season-ending hip surgery with Tampa Bay in 2022 and showed minimal ill effects, posting gaudy marks of 18 Defensive Runs Saved and 13 Outs Above Average in 981 innings of center field work. He also turned in an above-average line at the plate, batting .265/.322/.419. Kiermaier added 14 steals (in 15 attempts), popped eight home runs and tallied 21 doubles and six triples.

It’s a tantalizing package of talent, but Kiermaier’s durability — or rather, his lack thereof — has limited his career to this point. He avoided any notable injuries in 2023, missing time only due to an elbow laceration, but he’s averaged just 105 games per 162-game season dating back to 2017. Overall, he’s played in just 65.7% of his team’s possible games in that time, owing to a litany of injuries. That includes not only the aforementioned hip surgery, but also a wrist sprain, a torn ligament in his thumb, a hip fracture and a broken hand.

While some of the injuries have been standard-fare bad luck, the devil-may-care level of reckless abandon with which Kiermaier plays center field also leaves him prone to injury. He’s a clear-cut elite defender, but his willingness to dive for balls and crash into the outfield wall at full speed have been to the detriment of his health at times.

That said, Kiermaier’s left-handed bat would be a nice fit with the Yankees’ short porch. He’s long had roughly average power output — career .159 ISO, career-high 15 home runs — but it’s easy to see Yankee Stadium producing a few extra long balls for him if he can remain healthy. That’s far from a guarantee, given his track record, but Kiermaier would give the Yanks a left-handed bat and premium defender — something they’ve recently lacked in the outfield. In the likely event that he misses time, Aaron Judge has shown himself capable of sliding over to center field.

Kiermaier signed a one-year, $9MM contract last winter coming off hip surgery. It stands to reason that he ought to command a notably larger deal coming off a healthy and productive season — particularly given the lack of quality outfielders on the free agent market. Whether he’ll command a guaranteed multi-year deal with such a lengthy injury history remains an open question, but he certainly has the case to push for one after a strong all-around ’23 campaign in Toronto.

Mets Looking To Add Multiple Starting Pitchers This Offseason

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The Mets want to add multiple starting pitchers this winter, president of baseball operations David Stearns tells Tim Healey of Newsday. However, that may not involve pursuing the top guys available. “You always love to bring in top-flight talent and top-flight pitching,” Stearns said. “Do I think we need one? No. You can compile pitching staffs in a variety of different ways. Certainly any time you have horses at the front of the rotation, it makes everything else a little bit easier. But it’s not impossible to do it without that.”

The fact that the club is looking to make a number of additions is fairly sensible. Last year, they traded away their co-aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the deadline. At the end of the season, Carlos Carrasco became a free agent and David Peterson underwent hip surgery that will keep him out of action until the middle of next year.

That leaves the rotation with Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots, with Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto options for the back end. Megill had a 4.70 earned run average in 2023 but with subpar strikeout and walk rates of 18.5% and 10.2%, respectively. Lucchesi had a strong 2.89 ERA in his nine starts but with just a 16.4% strikeout rate, likely helped by a strand rate of 80.1%. Butto has just 46 innings of major league work and he just posted a 5.93 ERA at Triple-A in 2023.

Given the state of things, it’s understandable that the club will be looking to bring in multiple arms in order to improve the rotation for 2024. Exactly how aggressive they will be is an open question. The club had the highest payroll in baseball history in 2023 but that didn’t work out and it seems 2024 might be something of a transitional year. It’s tough to know exactly what it looks like for owner Steve Cohen to take a step back from record-setting spending, as that could still lead to the club forking out plenty of money. Agent Scott Boras was asked about this and phrased it thusly: “When you have the bigger jet, and you say you’re going slower, you’re still going faster,” Boras said, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.

That perhaps suggests the club is still indicating a certain level of aggression in its conversations with player agents, but the comments from Stearns also imply they might be happy to spread money around to various mid-level guys as opposed to targeting aces. At the top of the free agent market, pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are likely to land nine-figure deals. There should also be sizeable eight-figure deals available to pitchers like Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga. Then there will be guys like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Hyun Jin Ryu that should be attainable on low-cost bounceback deals. Time will tell how the Mets plan to assess these options but making a long-term investment would make sense even if they are pumping the brakes a bit. Quintana has just one year left on his deal and most of the club’s top prospects are position players, meaning there’s even more rotation uncertainty in the long term.

Stearns was also asked about first baseman Pete Alonso, per Sammon, and reiterated his previous position that he doesn’t expect a preseason trade. “I think I do not anticipate him getting traded,” Stearns said. “I don’t draw lines in the sand. And I’m never gonna say never. But I absolutely think it’s fair that I don’t anticipate him being traded.” Alonso is going into his final arbitration season before reaching free agency, so the club will have to pick a lane at some point. But with a good deal of uncertainty about the 2024 club, it seems they are leaning towards holding. If the club has another poor season in 2024, they could always pivot to a deadline deal.

Another option would be to pursue an extension. It doesn’t sound like anything is imminent there but it also doesn’t seem like the lines of communication are dead. “When it comes to the Polar Bear, we’re not in contract hibernation,” Boras said. He added that he follows the instructions given to him by his clients and Alonso has told him to listen to whatever the Mets have to say.

Sammon also rounds up a few other bits of Mets’ news from a busy week in the baseball world, including the fact that pitching coach Jeremy Hefner is going to stay on as pitching coach. With the club adding a new manager in Carlos Mendoza, it wasn’t known if he would then bring in someone from the outside for that job but Hefner will apparently stick around. Meanwhile, the club won’t hire a general manager this winter. Billy Eppler was going to be in that role before stepping aside amid an investigation into the club’s misuse of the injured list. Front offices are generally composed of dozens of decision makers, from assistant GMs to vice-presidents and so on, meaning the lack of someone with that specific GM title won’t mean much with Stearns the primary decision maker.

Turning back to the roster, neither outfielder Starling Marte nor infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil are expected to require offseason surgery. Marte had groin surgery last offseason and never seemed to be fully healthy in 2023, finishing the year on the injured list due to ongoing issues with his groin. McNeil, meanwhile, was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his left elbow. He throws with his right arm anyway but it appears both he and Marte are making good progress and can perhaps return without going under the knife this winter. As for designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach, the club is still undecided on whether or not they will tender him a contract for 2024. The non-tender deadline is November 17, giving them just over a week to pick a path with him. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Vogelbach for a salary of $2.6MM.

Orioles Seeking Additions For Top Half Of Rotation, Back Of Bullpen

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The Orioles’ rebuild came to a definitive end with this year’s 101-win season, and general manager Mike Elias is already speaking accordingly as he enters his sixth offseason with the team. Elias tells Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that adding a starting pitcher who “projects for the front half of the rotation would be wonderful” and that he also hopes to add a late-inning reliever — ideally someone with closing experience.

The free-agent market isn’t short on either type of pitcher. Playoff-caliber starters in free agency include Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman, to say nothing of incoming NPB stars like 25-year-old righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto and 30-year-old lefty Shota Imanaga.

Currently, the Orioles’ rotation is set to include Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Assuming he’s back to health after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, southpaw John Means should slot into the group. Other options include Tyler Wells, DL Hall, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and prospect Cade Povich (who’s not yet on the 40-man roster but will surely be added by next week). Baltimore starters ranked 11th in the Majors with a 4.14 ERA this year — a mark that includes results from current free agents Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty.

As far as relievers go, former O’s prospect Josh Hader tops the class and could set a record for largest contract ever given to a reliever. Beyond him, former closing options on the market include David Robertson, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel.

The trade market, of course, will feature prominent names in both regards, but the Orioles’ payroll is practically a blank slate, which gives them the opportunity to pursue just about any pitcher — assuming ownership is willing to commit to a long-term free agent for the first time in Elias’ tenure. Incredibly, James McCann and Felix Bautista — owed a combined $3.5MM in 2024 — are the only two players guaranteed any money this coming season.

Of course, the Orioles also have a deep and talented arbitration class. Each of Anthony Santander, John Means, Danny Coulombe, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Ryan O’Hearn, Dillon Tate, Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle, Cionel Perez, Cole Irvin, Keegan Akin, Jacob Webb, Ramon Urias, Tyler Wells, Ryan McKenna and recent waiver claim Sam Hilliard is eligible for arbitration. That whopping group of 17 players projects to combine for $56.17MM in arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Some from the bunch will be non-tendered or traded, but the most expensive names among the bunch (Santander, Mullins, Hays, Means, Mountcastle) seem likely to stay put.

Not long ago, a reliever with closing experience might not have seemed like a dire need for the O’s, but All-Star Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October and is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign as a result. The O’s have another All-Star, Yennier Cano, as a potential alternative option in the ninth inning, though he was far more successful in the season’s first three months (1.14 ERA) than in the second three (3.24 ERA). That’s not at all to suggest he can’t be an effective endgame option for the Birds, but rather to simply point out that as the year progressed, Cano didn’t quite look to be Bautista’s equal (as he did in the earlygoing).

The Orioles’ ability to add to the pitching staff (and payroll in general) is only buoyed by the fact that so much of the team’s excellent young core is not yet even into arbitration. Each of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Bradish, Rodriguez and Cano will make league minimum or only slightly more in 2024. The same is true of prospects like Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday, each of whom could play a significant role for the ’24 club.

It’ll likely become a rather expensive core at some point, but for the time being, their minimal financial commitments give the O’s considerable flexibility to creatively pursue just about any pitcher they like. High-profile arms seeking short-term rebound deals could fit into the payroll for a year or two without issue, and if the Orioles want to pursue a longer-term fit, they could always frontload the contract to pay out more of the guarantee in 2024-25, when the so much of the roster is still in its pre-arbitration years.

White Sox Eyeing Short-Term Veterans At Shortstop

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For the first time in seven years, the White Sox appear likely to head into a season with someone other than Tim Anderson penciled in as their primary shortstop. The Sox bought out Anderson’s $14MM club option, and while a potential reunion isn’t entirely off the table, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that new GM Chris Getz is looking for a veteran option with good defensive skills who can be signed on a short-term deal. The idea would be for that veteran pickup to serve as a bridge to top prospect Colson Montgomery, who’s on track to make his MLB debut at some point in 2024.

Anderson turned in some strong defensive seasons early in his career, but metrics like Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved have soured on his glovework in recent years. He’s seemingly acknowledged as much, expressing a willingness to move to second base if need be. In all likelihood, Anderson no longer fits the description of what Getz is targeting for this role.

[Related: Previewing the 2023-24 Free Agent Class — Shortstops]

It’s a bleak crop of free-agent shortstops, though there are certainly a fair number of glove-first options who’d fit this billing. Longtime D-backs shortstop Nick Ahmed has been one of the sport’s premier defenders at the position since making his big league debut a decade ago. He’s never been a big threat at the plate — although he hits lefties fairly well — and shoulder injuries have tanked his past couple seasons. He missed almost the entire 2022 season due to surgery and hit just .212/.257/.303 in 210 plate appearances before being released by Arizona.

That said, Ahmed did manage a .257/.319/.428 batting line from 2019-20. He’s a career .257/.309/.430 hitter against southpaws. He also ranks eighth among all big leaguers, regardless of position, with 79 Defensive Runs Saved since 2015. Statcast is even more bullish, crediting him with a sensational 111 Outs Above Average in that time — second among all Major Leaguers, trailing only Francisco Lindor.

Elsewhere on the market, Paul DeJong has a long track record of quality glovework at shortstop, though his bat has wilted after a strong three-year run to begin his career in 2017-19. Since 2020, he’s turned in a grisly .200/.273/.352 batting line in 1213 trips to the plate. He was traded from the Cardinals to the Blue Jays at this year’s deadline but cut loose both in Toronto and later by San Francisco. DeJong was hitting .233/.297/.412 at the time of the trade but posted a disastrous .129/.128/.183 output between the Jays and Giants.

Speaking of the Giants, longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford’s contract expired at season’s end. He’s a free agent for the first time in his career and would certainly provide the Sox with a plus glove on a short-term deal, though he hasn’t yet made up his mind on whether he’ll continue his career into the 2024 season, tweets Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. Even if Crawford doesn’t retire, the soon-to-be 37-year-old might prefer to join a team with a clearer path to the postseason, if such an opportunity presents itself.

There are other options to consider. A reunion with Elvis Andrus could make some sense, and there are buy-low options like Amed Rosario to consider. Perhaps the Sox could pursue a multi-position option with some shortstop experience; Gio Urshela, Joey Wendle and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all available. Urshela and Wendle have played more third base than shortstop, however, while Kiner-Falefa logged just eight innings there in ’23 and Rosario hasn’t turned in particularly strong defensive grades overall.

Whoever takes the reins, he’ll do so knowing that one of the sport’s top prospects is breathing down his neck. Montgomery, 21, posted a .287/.456/.484 batting line across three minor league levels in 2023 and ranks among the game’s top 20 prospects at FanGrahps (No. 12), Baseball America (No. 14) and MLB.com (No. 17). He climbed as high as the Double-A level in 2023 and will open the 2024 season either back at that level (presumably for a brief stint) or in Triple-A. Montgomery was the No. 22 overall pick in the 2021 draft, and he’ll get the opportunity to prove he can be the South Siders’ shortstop of the future before long.

Nationals Hope To Add Pitching This Offseason

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo spoke this week about the upcoming offseason, with Andrew Golden of The Washington Post relaying some the details. Rizzo stated that the club is looking to bolster both its starting and relief pitching, as well as mentioning a middle-of-the-order bat.

That the club is open to additions all over the roster is hardly surprising since they have been aggressively rebuilding for a while now. The past few years have seen Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Juan Soto and many others flipped for prospects, leading to the Nats finishing last in the National League East three years running. The 2023 club won 71 games, a jump of 16 from the dismal results of 2022, but there were also some less-encouraging signs. The club had a run differential of -145, second-worst in the National League, ahead of just the Rockies. They outpaced their expected win-loss record of 66-96 thanks to some help from a record of 28-21 in one-run games and a 6-2 mark in extra innings.

On the pitching side, the club had a collective earned run average of 5.02, a mark that topped just the Royals, Athletics and Rockies. The starting staff and the relief corps were equally ineffective, as both groups had matching ERAs at that 5.02 figure.

Stephen Strasburg is still on the roster, although he won’t be a factor going forward. It’s been known for some time that his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome isn’t going to allow him to compete at the major league level anymore. He and the Nats were discussing a retirement deal last year, even though his contract runs through 2026, but the club walked away and he was activated from the IL earlier week. Both Rizzo and Scott Boras, Strasburg’s agent, admit that the righty’s pitching days are done. “Medically, it’s going to be difficult to see him pitching again at the big league level,” Rizzo said, per Golden. “We understand where he’s at physically. We have understood it since last year, so that hasn’t changed.” While coming to some sort of agreement about his retirement would allow the club to free up a roster spot, that doesn’t seem imminent. “The roster spot is important,” Rizzo says. “But there’s certain rules and protocols that have to be met within the CBA to conclude these types of things when [players] are under contract.” He didn’t clarify which parts of the CBA are currently standing in the way of Strasburg’s retirement.

Without Strasburg, the rotation currently consists of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. Corbin hasn’t been terribly effective lately, with his strikeout rate having dropped in each of the past four years. But he will likely continue to hold a place based on his contract. He’s set to make $35MM next year, the final year of his deal. Since he’s a fairly reliable innings eater, the Nats will likely give him the ball every fifth day as they manage the workloads of their younger pitchers.

Gray had a 3.91 ERA last year but may have been lucky to do so. His 20.5% strikeout rate, 11.5% walk rate and 37.8% ground ball rate were all worse than league average. An 80.4% strand rate likely helped to keep some runs off the board, which is why he had a 4.93 FIP and 5.08 SIERA. Gore had better peripherals but allowed more home runs, leading to a 4.42 ERA. Both of them are still fairly young, Gray going into his age-26 campaign and Gore his age-25, and neither has reached arbitration yet. They will be in the rotation again next year as the Nats hope they take a step forward in 2024.

Williams signed a two-year deal with the Nats last offseason but the first season of that contract didn’t go especially well as he posted a 5.55 ERA over 30 starts. Similar to Corbin, he could serve an innings-eating role but the club is likely less committed to Williams. He’s only making $7MM in 2024 so his deal would be easier to walk away from. Irvin had a 4.61 ERA in 2023 with fairly uninspiring peripherals.

The Nats also have Joan Adon, Thaddeus Ward, Jackson Rutledge and Roddery Muñoz on the roster, though each of those guys is likely stuck in a depth role until they have better results. Given the current options, it’s fair to see how Rizzo could find room for an external addition or two.

It’s unclear who the Nats would target but they kept things fairly modest last year. Apart from the two-year contract for Williams, they stuck to one-year deals for bounceback candidates like Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith. If they set similar targets this winter, they could perhaps look to pitchers like Wade Miley, Martín Pérez, Kyle Gibson, Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and others.

On the bullpen side of things, there are plenty of arms available they could look to add, but it also sounds like subtraction is possible. Rizzo says other clubs have been asking about righties Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s not a surprise to hear that the two are drawing interest, both because of their strong results and because they also were in trade rumors at the deadline a few months back.

Both players stayed and Finnegan finished the year with a 3.76 ERA, racking up 28 saves in the process. Harvey’s ERA was almost a full run better at 2.82, striking out 28.5% of batters while notching 10 saves and 19 holds. The Nats don’t need to move either, since they are both controllable via arbitration through 2025. However, performance from relievers can be volatile and an injury can happen at any time. The Nats could open their next competitive window in the next two years but there would be some sense to flipping these guys for players that could be more meaningful pieces of that window.

As for the middle-of-the-order bat Rizzo referenced, there are plenty of options available, depending on how aggressive they are willing to be. First baseman Dominic Smith and third baseman Carter Kieboom are both non-tender candidates. If Smith were out of the picture, Joey Meneses could take on some extra first base time, or the club could look outside. In the outfield, Lane Thomas is coming off a solid season but did most of his damage against lefties. Stone Garrett also had a good year but finished it on the injured list due to a fractured leg. Victor Robles is coming off another frustrating season.

If the Nats wanted to make a splash, they could target players like Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Rhys Hoskins, but other options include Tommy Pham, Jason Heyward, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson.

Astros Notes: Payroll, Rotation, Maldonado, Neris

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The Astros advanced to their seventh consecutive League Championship Series in 2023 but fell shy of a third straight World Series bid when the division-rival and eventual World Series Champion Rangers knocked them off in a thrilling seven-game series. They’ll head into the winter with a trio of notable relievers hitting free agency (Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek) and with a rotation that’s a bit thinned out by to injuries of Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor tendon surgery) and Luis Garcia (Tommy John surgery). Veteran Michael Brantley is also returning to the open market.

Despite a plethora of needs up and down the roster, general manager Dana Brown openly acknowledged at this week’s GM Meetings that his team doesn’t “have a ton” of financial flexibility heading into the offseason (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). That’s unwelcome news for ’Stros fans, though Brown suggested that if the right situation presented itself, owner Jim Crane might push beyond his current comfort levels.

As it stands, strong rookie performances from the likes of Hunter Brown and J.P. France give Houston a quality group of six starters on which to lean. Reacquired ace Justin Verlander, lefty Framber Valdez and righties Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy round out the rotation options.

Verlander will pitch next season at 41, however, while Valdez and Javier faltered a bit as the year wore on; Javier’s rotation spot was skipped a couple times over the summer as he labored through mixed results, while Valdez turned in a pedestrian 4.64 ERA over his final 99 innings before being rocked for 12 earned runs in 12 postseason frames. Urquidy spent several months on the injured list and turned in 73 innings of 5.30 ERA ball between the regular season and playoffs combined.

The depth beyond those six is more concerning. Righties Shawn Dubin and Brandon Bielak both had rough showings in Triple-A. The latter tossed 80 innings of 3.83 ball in the big leagues but did so with a 10.2% walk rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and too many home runs allowed (1.35 HR/9) to necessarily bank on a repeat. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, also on the 40-man roster, posted a 5.70 ERA in 30 Triple-A frames.

Brown indicated to reporters that he’d be open to opportunities to add “a legit third starter or better.” Logically speaking, doing so without radically increasing the payroll would likely require operating on the trade market rather than in free agency. It sounds as though that’s viewed more as a luxury than a priority anyhow; McCullers and Garcia are expected back sometime in July, and Brown instead called the bullpen and backup catcher “priorities.”

To that end, it’s perhaps not surprising to hear that the ’Stros and longtime catcher Martin Maldonado could continue their relationship. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that the two parties have mutual interest in a reunion, adding that Brown has already met with Maldonado’s agent, Dan Lozano, during this week’s GM Meetings. The Astros have publicly declared that Yainer Diaz will be their primary catcher in 2024, but as Brown himself spelled out, adding an experienced backup is a goal.

Houston has stuck with Maldonado for four and a half years despite the fact that he’s perhaps been MLB’s least-productive hitter during that time. Over the past three seasons in particular, Maldonado has been a liability at the dish. In 1212 plate appearances since 2021, he’s turned in a .183/.260/.333 — about 34% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. However, the Astros are enamored of Maldonado’s game-calling, game-planning and broad defensive skills. Maldonado ranks among the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt over the past four years, although his framing skills fell off a cliff in 2023 and his caught-stealing rate has steadily declined.

Houston clearly loves Maldonado’s work with their pitching staff, however, and the organization would surely welcome him working in a mentor role to Diaz, whom they hope can cement himself as the catcher of the future. Add in that a new deal with Maldonado in a reduced role would undoubtedly be a low-cost arrangement, and it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see them hammer something out. Maldonado earned $5MM in 2022 and $4.5MM last year.

Maldonado isn’t the only former Astro who’s on the radar. Via Rome, Brown acknowledged that he’s also spoken with Neris’ representatives at Octagon about a new deal, though there’s no indication a new deal is close to fruition. Neris turned down an $8.5MM player option and although he’s 34 years old will quite likely be able to secure a multi-year pact on the open market this winter after turning in a sub-2.00 ERA in his second season with Houston.

Turning to a pair of Astros icons, both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are entering the final year of their contracts. Brown has been forthcoming about his desire to make the pair lifelong Astros, but agent Scott Boras — who represents both players — said at this week’s meetings that contract talks have not yet begun (link via Kawahara).

Astros fans will want to check out the pieces from both Kawahara and Rome in full, as they’re rife with refreshingly straightforward answers from Brown — the type of candor that many of his peers throughout the league generally shy away from offering. Beyond acknowledging priorities in the bullpen and behind the plate as well as interest in bolstering the rotation, Brown suggested that outfield won’t be a primary focus this offseason, given the presence of Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon and Jake Meyers. That doesn’t expressly rule out an addition — unexpected opportunities on the trade market, for instance, could always arise — but it doesn’t seem that’s a hot-button issue for the Astros at the moment.

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