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Fantasy Baseball: Prospect Fever

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Hello friends.

Unfortunately, we have to start with some bad news - I have a fever. And judging by the questions coming in during our weekly Monday chats, a lot of you have one too. But good news! The only prescription for the aforementioned fever is more prospects and we have those in spades. Or even bells*, one might say.

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The Jesus Luzardo Alternative Who *Should* Be Available Next Month

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Find virtually any primer for the 2024 trade deadline and you'll see Jesus Luzardo's name at or near the top of the discussion. He's probably even the feature image on many of those pieces. It's not hard to see why. A hard-throwing 26-year-old lefty with two seasons of club control beyond the current campaign and big strikeout abilities is always going to be in demand. And the Marlins, sitting at 23-48 on the season, have effectively been out of postseason contention since the second week of the season. A 1-12 start to the year will do that to you.

Luzardo might be the most talked-about name on the trade market this summer and has a far better chance to move than your standard prime-aged starting pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control. The Marlins already traded Luis Arraez in early May, after all. They're clearly open for business.

Nearly everything I just said about Luzardo applies to another lefty on the opposite coast. And yet for all the Luzardo chatter we've already heard and will continue to hear, the trade buzz between the two southpaws doesn't align.

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Mike Tauchman Out Roughly Four Weeks With Groin Strain

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The Cubs will be without Mike Tauchman for a few weeks. Chicago placed their right fielder on the 10-day injured list this evening with a strained left groin. Miles Mastrobuoni is up from Triple-A Iowa to take the active roster spot.

Manager Craig Counsell told the Chicago beat that Tuchman’s strain is of the Grade 2 variety (relayed on X by the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro). Counsell suggested it’ll be around a month before the injury is fully healed. That could take Tuchman’s rehab close to the July 30 trade deadline.

The lefty-swinging Tauchman has emerged as a surprising contributor for Chicago. He hit .252/.363/.377 over a career-high 401 plate appearances a season ago. As MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored last month, the lefty-hitting Tauchman has hit his way to regular playing time in the Wrigley Field outfield. Tauchman carried a .257/.375/.407 line at the time of Nick’s post. His production has tailed off a bit since then, as he ran a .263/.330/.338 slash in 88 plate appearances over the past month. That hadn’t changed his standing, as Counsell has continued to pencil him in atop the lineup.

That’ll be on hold after Tauchman came up limping beating out an infield single. Nico Hoerner jumps to the top of the order for tonight’s game. The Cubs moved Cody Bellinger from center to right field with Pete Crow-Armstrong taking over in center. Seiya Suzuki is serving as the designated hitter. Crow-Armstrong will probably see the biggest uptick in playing time with Tauchman on the shelf.

The Cubs enter tonight’s game with a 34-39 record. Chicago washed away a strong April with a 16-27 showing going back to May 1. They’ve dropped into 13th place in the National League, but everyone in the NL besides the Marlins and Rockies is still in the playoff picture. Chicago is only two games back of the Giants, who currently hold the last Wild Card spot. They’re among 8-10 teams in the Senior Circuit whose approaches to the trade deadline will be determined by how well they play over the next six weeks.

Cubs Acquire William Simoneit From Phillies

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The Cubs have acquired catcher William Simoneit from the Phillies, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The backstop has been assigned to Double-A Tennessee for now. He wasn’t on Philadelphia’s 40-man roster and therefore won’t require a spot with the Cubs. The Phils receive cash considerations in return.

Simeonit, now 27, signed with the Athletics as an undrafted free agent in 2020. From 2021 to 2023, he got into 244 minor league games from High-A to Triple-A. He produced a combined batting line of .259/.359/.408 in that time, which led to a 108 wRC+.

The Phils nabbed him away from the A’s in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 draft. His results have fallen off since the organizational switch, as he’s hit .145/.286/.306 between Double-A and Triple-A this year, striking out in 39% of his trips to the plate. The Phillies recently lost some catching depth with J.T. Realmuto requiring knee surgery but still decided they would rather have the cash than Simoneit.

The Cubs have received very little from their catching position this year, something that manager Craig Counsell recently discussed. As of today, Miguel Amaya is hitting .185/.248/.267 on the season while Yan Gomes has a line of .154/.179/.242. Neither of those two can be optioned and the club doesn’t have another catcher on the 40-man.

Alí Sánchez is in the system as non-roster depth but Simoneit will now join him in that capacity. It’s obviously been rough going to start this year for Simoneit but perhaps he can get back to into his pre-2024 form.

Yankees Place Ian Hamilton, Cody Poteet On Injured List

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The Yankees announced a series of roster moves today. First baseman Anthony Rizzo was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right forearm fracture, an injury that was reported yesterday. They also placed right-handers Ian Hamilton and Cody Poteet on the 15-day injured list. Hamilton’s move is due to a right lat strain and retroactive to June 17. Poteet’s is due to a right triceps strain and retroactive to June 15. In corresponding moves, they recalled left-hander Clayton Andrews and also selected the contracts of left-hander Anthony Misiewicz and catcher/infielder Ben Rice. The moves for Misiewicz and Rice were previously covered on MLBTR.

In terms of the 40-man roster, the Yankees had one vacancy for Misiewicz/Rice but opened another by transferring righty Clarke Schmidt to the 60-day injured list. The 40-man is now full but the club is planning to reinstate righty Gerrit Cole from the 60-day IL tomorrow and will need to open a spot for him.

Poteet was recalled a few weeks ago to take a rotation spot when Schmidt landed on the injured list. Poteet has made four good starts since then, currently sitting on a 2.14 earned run average for the year. Despite that strong work, he was likely going to be optioned back to the minors to make way for Cole, since each of Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman have been in good form this year.

But instead of going back down to the minors, Poteet is now on the IL. He won’t throw at all for the next week or two, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic on X, before taking things from there. The Yanks have the strongest rotation in the league this year, even before accounting for Cole’s return, as their collective 2.90 ERA leads the majors at the moment. But having both Schmidt and Poteet on the IL at the same time leaves their depth a bit thinned out.

Clayton Beeter is on the 40-man roster but seems to be injured as well, since he hasn’t pitched at Triple-A since May 15. Yoendrys Gómez is also on the roster and has a 3.13 ERA in Triple-A, but is working around a high walk rate of 13.9%. If they suffer another rotation injury, that depth situation could be a factor, though perhaps Schmidt and/or Poteet can return to health before it becomes an issue.

As for Hamilton, his injury seems to be even more significant as he won’t throw for three to four weeks, per Kirschner on X. He’ll likely have to build back up after such an absence so he might end up missing a couple of months, depending on how things develop in the interim.

The righty emerged as a key piece of the Yankee bullpen last year, tossing 58 innings with a 2.64 ERA. His 10.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 28.9% of batters faced while getting grounders on 55.3% of balls in play.

His ERA has jumped to 4.55 this year but perhaps the injury has played a role in that. He had a 2.81 ERA after his June 6 appearance but has allowed seven earned runs in four innings since then. If the lat issue started bugging him in that time, perhaps that explains the recent struggles. In his absence, pitchers like Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle, Caleb Ferguson and Michael Tonkin will help set up closer Clay Holmes. Most contending clubs look for bullpen additions prior to the trade deadline and the Yankees will surely be in the market since they currently have the best record in baseball.

As for Schmidt, he was placed on the injured list May 27 with a right lat strain and will now be ineligible to be reinstated until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which would be July 26. Shortly after he was placed on the IL, the Yanks announced that he would be shut down for four to six weeks. Even if he starts throwing in early July, he’ll surely need a few weeks of rehab to build back up to a starter’s workload.

Alex Lange To Undergo Lat Surgery

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Tigers reliever Alex Lange will undergo surgery to repair an avulsion in his right lat next week, the team informed reporters (X link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). The club didn’t provide any kind of return timetable, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll make it back this season.

Making matters worse, the right-hander suffered the injury while he was pitching in Triple-A. The Tigers had optioned him in late May. He left his appearance on Friday — his ninth minor league outing — in obvious pain. That’ll send Lange to the minor league injured list The Tigers could decide to recall him and place him on the MLB 60-day injured list if they need to open a spot on the 40-man roster, but Lange won’t collect an MLB salary or service time while he’s on the minor league IL.

It’s the toughest blow in an absolute nightmare of a season for Detroit’s former closer. Lange saved 26 games a year ago. He turned in consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings with plus strikeout and ground-ball rates between 2022-23. Yet the LSU product’s success always felt a little tenuous because of scattershot control. That came back to bite him through the first couple months this season.

Lange walked more than 18% of the hitters he faced over 21 big league appearances. His strikeouts and grounders each dropped to around league average. That’s clearly not a great combination. Lange allowed 16 runs across 18 2/3 innings. While only nine of those runs were earned, his underlying numbers were concerning enough for Detroit to send him down in an effort to back on track. Lange had seemed to be doing just that, striking out 12 with only one walk in 8 2/3 Triple-A frames.

The injury could have an impact on the former first-rounder’s service trajectory. Lange entered the 2024 campaign with two years and 112 days of MLB service. The 172-day threshold marks a full year, meaning he needed 60 days on the MLB roster (or MLB injured list) to reach the three-year threshold in 2024. Detroit optioned Lange after 56 days, leaving him a couple days shy of the three-year mark.

That didn’t seem like much of an issue when the club expected to recall him in relatively short order. It’s more of a concern now, particularly if his season is over. If Lange spends the rest of the season on the minor league injured list, he’ll come up short of the three-year mark. That’d push back his path to free agency by a year and, probably more significantly, prevent him from reaching arbitration next winter as initially expected. (Lange would not qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player, which only applies to players who had at least 86 days of service time in the preceding season.) That could impact whether the Tigers decide to put Lange on the major league 60-day IL at any point this year.

Twins Place Alex Kirilloff On Injured List

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June 18: Kirilloff’s option was rescinded on Tuesday. He is instead going on the MLB 10-day injured list with a back issue (X link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). The first baseman had evidently been playing through the injury which occurred before the Twins made the decision to send him down — thereby negating the option. Kirilloff will continue to pick up MLB service and be paid a major league salary while he recovers.

June 13: The Twins announced that first baseman/outfielder Alex Kirilloff has been optioned to Triple-A St. Paul. Utility player Austin Martin was recalled from Triple-A St. Paul as the corresponding move.

Kirilloff, now 26, has long been seen as a key piece of the future for the Twins. Selected 15th overall in the 2016 draft, he was seen as one of the top prospects in the system and even in the entire league. Baseball America ranked him as one of the 35 best prospects in the majors in three straight years, starting in in 2019.

He made his debut back in 2021 but injuries have prevented him from cementing himself as the big league level. He underwent surgery on his right wrist in July of 2021 and then again in August of 2022. At the end of the 2023 campaign, it was his right shoulder that required surgical treatment.

Those medical issues kept him from sticking with the club for an extended stretch, but he still showed plenty of potential. He hit .270/.348/.445 in 88 games last year, production that translated to a wRC+ of 120.

Ideally, with a clean bill of health, Kirilloff could have finally had his long-awaited breakout over an extended stretch. He has managed to avoid the injured list so far in 2024 but the results haven’t been there. He currently sports a slash line of .201/.270/.384 for the year, which leads to an 85 wRC+.

It’s possible that the baseball gods are being unkind to him, as he has a .245 batting average on balls in play, well below this year’s .288 league average. And that’s despite some decent Statcast metrics, as his barrel rate and average exit velocity are both around the 80th percentile of league hitters while his hard hit rate is 56th. But he’s also striking out 26.4% of the time and has a 47.8% ground ball rate, less than ideal for a left-handed hitter with 37th percentile sprint speed.

Whatever the reasons, that kind of offensive output isn’t acceptable for Kirilloff. He isn’t considered a strong defender, either at first base or in the outfield, and needs the bat to carry his profile. With the results not coming so far this year, the Twins have decided he needs to work on things in St. Paul.

It’s the third time this year that the club has decided to send down a guy they were hoping to be a lineup mainstay, as Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien have also been optioned this year after some struggles. With the club clinging to the final Wild Card spot, their lack of patience is certainly understandable.

Carlos Santana has been getting the bulk of the playing time at first base, with José Miranda in the mix as well. The outfield corners should be manned by some combination of Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Manuel Margot, Willi Castro and Martin for the time being, though Wallner or Kirilloff could work their way back into the mix if they post good results in Triple-A or if an injury opens up a need.

Kirilloff came into this year with one of his three option years remaining. A player needs to spend 20 days on optional assignment in order to use one up. He’ll be optionable for the rest of 2024 regardless but will be out of options next year if he doesn’t get recalled in the next three weeks.

He also began this campaign with his service time clock at two years and 141 days. He qualified for arbitration at the end of last season as a Super Two player and is earning $1.35MM here in 2024. He’ll be due a modest raise in arbitration this coming winter. The Twins will likely tender him a contract based on his potential and past prospect status, but he’ll have a tenuous hold on a roster spot given his struggles, especially if he is out of options.

A’s Outright Seth Brown

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The A’s announced they’ve selected Tyler Nevin onto the MLB roster. To open space on the active roster, they sent outfielder Seth Brown through outright waivers. Oakland also confirmed their previously-reported recall of outfielder Lawrence Butler and designation of veteran infielder J.D. Davis for assignment. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.

There’d been no prior indication that Brown had been removed from the 40-man roster. The A’s evidently placed him on waivers after Sunday’s game without announcing the move. The 31-year-old has already gone unclaimed and will almost certainly stick in the organization with Triple-A Las Vegas.

Brown has upwards of three years of service time, which gives him the right to decline the Triple-A assignment in favor of free agency. He has yet to reach five years in the majors, though, so testing free agency would require him to forfeit what remains of this year’s $2.6MM arbitration salary. He wouldn’t match that sum on the open market, making it an easy call to report to the Aviators and try to play his way back to the big leagues later in the season.

The lefty-hitting Brown has had a sharp drop in production over the last couple seasons. He slumped to a .222/.286/.405 slash across 378 plate appearances a year ago. The past couple months have been among the worst of his career. Brown has punched out more than a third of the time while hitting just .189/.251/.306 across 195 trips to the dish. He owns a .210/.274/.371 line going back to the start of the 2023 campaign.

That’s well below the form he showed in the preceding two seasons. While Brown has never hit left-handed pitching, he was a solid power threat against righties from 2021-22. The former 19th-round pick took 737 plate appearances versus right-handers over that stretch. He popped 41 home runs, 35 doubles and four triples en route to a .483 slugging percentage. An elevated strikeout rate kept his on-base percentage at a modest .304 clip, but the power made him an above-average hitter when he carried the platoon advantage.

While that once looked like it’d make Brown a potentially intriguing trade target for teams seeking an affordable lefty bat, his performance over the past year and a half sapped any trade value. It now seems likely the A’s won’t find a taker for Brown at all. Even assuming he sticks in the organization for now, he’d be a minor league free agent next offseason if he’s not first reselected onto the 40-man roster. Brown would still be eligible for arbitration for two more seasons if the A’s were to call him back up, but they presumably wouldn’t tender him a contract to match or exceed this year’s salary.

In the short term, the A’s will take their second look at Nevin. Oakland outrighted the righty hitter a couple weeks ago. Nevin quickly hit his way back, running a .296/.365/.667 line in 14 Triple-A contests. Claimed off waivers from the Orioles at the start of the season, Nevin appeared in 40 games for Oakland before being designated for assignment. He hit .220/.307/.341 with four homers while splitting his defensive work between all four corner spots.

Nevin steps into Davis’ place as a right-handed bench bat. He could take a few at-bats from the switch-hitting Abraham Toro at third base and/or the lefty-swinging Butler, who is likely to step into Brown’s spot as the primary right fielder. Nevin is out of options, so the A’s would again need to pass him through waivers if they want to take him off the MLB roster at any point.

Astros Place Justin Verlander On Injured List

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The Astros announced that they have placed right-hander Justin Verlander on the 15-day injured list due to neck discomfort, retroactive to June 16. Right-hander Nick Hernandez has been recalled from Triple-A as the corresponding move.

Verlander, 41, was supposed to start for the Astros on Saturday but was scratched due to the discomfort in his neck. The pitcher told Chandler Rome of The Athletic that the issue has been bothering him for weeks. “When I was out there, I felt like it wasn’t really bothering me, but when I go home and sit down and really think about it, I think it’s too much of a coincidence that my mechanics were really thrown off at the same time I was dealing with this,” Verlander said Saturday afternoon.

The hope seemed to be that Verlander would recover with a few days of extra rest. “If this was playoff time, I’d like to think I’d be out there,” Verlander said. “But that pattern where it’s every day getting a little bit better, I think with the off days, it’s best to let it fully resolve itself and I hope it does.”

Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to pass. Earlier today, Rome relayed on X that manager Joe Espada told Matt Thomas of SportsTalk 790 that Verlander’s progress has been “slower than we expected.”

It seems that the decision has been made to let him rest up and get the issue taken care of. Verlander had a 3.26 earned run average on the year before his last two starts each resulted in four earned runs allowed over five innings, bumping him up to 3.95. Perhaps there’s good sense in giving him a quick breather to get healthy as opposed to continuing to send him out there when he’s not at his best.

Though it may end up just being a brief stint on the injured list, it’s still notable for the Astros, as rotation health has been the unfortunate top story of their poor season to this point. They have known since last year that they would be without Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. for most of this season, as they both underwent significant surgery last year. Since the season started, they have lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery.

Verlander has also been away from that group, as he started the season on the IL due to right shoulder inflammation. He was reinstated in the middle of April but is now back on the shelf again. That leaves the Astros with a rotation consisting of Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Valdez and Blanco have been good and Brown has recovered from a rough start, but Arrighetti is currently an ERA of 6.37.

The larger concern may be the lack of exciting options to step up and join that group while Verlander is out. J.P. France is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t pitched since late April due to a shoulder injury. Blair Henley is also on the 40-man but has uninspiring results in Triple-A this year and was lit up in his major league debut earlier this season. Eric Lauer is in the system on a minor league deal but has a 6.30 for Sugar Land at the moment.

Thanks in part to the ongoing rotation problems, the Astros are 33-39, their worst start in years. They are seven games out of a playoff spot and still have time to turn things around but Verlander’s absence will exacerbate a problem that has been going on all year.

Blue Jays Place Bo Bichette On Injured List, Recall Orelvis Martinez

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The Blue Jays announced a series of roster moves today, with shortstop Bo Bichette placed on the 10-day injured list with a right calf strain, retroactive to June 15. Infielder Orelvis Martinez was recalled and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. They also made a bullpen swap, with left-hander Brandon Eisert optioned as right-hander Ryan Burr was recalled.

Bichette hasn’t played since Friday due to this calf issue. The Jays didn’t place him on the IL right away as they monitored the development of the injury, but it seems it didn’t heal up as hoped and the determination was made to place him on the shelf. Since the move is backdated, he could be back in as soon as a week’s time if he feels better. Manager John Schneider says that is indeed the hope, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X.

It’s been a rough season overall for Bichette, who is hitting just .237/.286/.342 on the year, a far cry from the .299/.340/.487 line he carried into the season. It’s possible that some of that is batted ball luck, as he had a .349 batting average on balls in play coming into the year but has a .271 BABIP in 2024, but he also has just four home runs this season and a 4.7% barrel rate that’s roughly half of the 9.2% rate he has for his entire career.

He may have been turning things around after a really rough start, as he slashed .280/.321/.410 in the month of May for a 108 wRC+. His numbers in June ticked down again, though it’s possible that the calf had started nagging at him before it actually took him out of the lineup. Regardless, he’ll have at least a week to rest up and take a breather.

His injury will allow Martinez to come up to the majors for the first time. Now 22 years old, he was a fairly high-profile international signing out of the Dominican Republic, securing a bonus of $3.51MM from the Jays in 2018. As he has climbed the minor league ladder, he has made good on that strong bonus by becoming a top 100 prospect, with his home run power standing out as his most exciting tool.

In 2021, he got into 98 games between Single-A and High-A, hitting 28 home runs in that time. He was promoted to Double-A in 2022 and there was a bit of concern with his early results there. He struck out at a 28.5% clip and slashed just .203/.286/.446 that year. But the Jays still didn’t want him exposed in that year’s Rule 5 draft and added him to their 40-man roster.

He returned to Double-A to start 2023 and the results were much better. He cut his strikeout rate to 20.5% and also drew walks at a huge 14% clip. He hit 17 home runs in 70 games and slashed .226/.339/.485 for a wRC+ of 122. He was promoted to Triple-A in July of last year and now has 118 games for the Bisons under his belt with 27 home runs. His 25.4% strikeout rate in that time is a bit high but he’s also drawn walks at a 9.7% clip.

There is some slight platoon concern, as Martinez has hit .321/.406/.661 against lefties this year but just .240/.324/.480 the rest of the time, but he’s also still quite young and has shown an ability to adjust when challenged.

Defense is also a bit of question mark for Martinez. He spent a lot of time at shortstop in previous seasons but hasn’t played there in 2024, mostly lining up at second base with a bit of time at third base also mixed in. Despite the flaws, Martinez has enough upside at the plate that he’s considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America currently lists him #54 overall, FanGraphs #71 and MLB Pipeline #68. Coming into the season, Keith Law of The Athletic put him in the #57 spot, though Kiley McDaniel of ESPN didn’t have Martinez on his list.

Since Martinez hasn’t been playing shortstop this year, he won’t be a direct replacement for Bichette. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been holding down that spot with Bichette out of action in recent days and will likely continue in that role, with Ernie Clement and Addison Barger capable of chipping in as well.

Martinez will be in the mix for some playing time at second and third alongside Clement, Barger, Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz. The club has also experimented with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting some time at third and he could be in the mix there as well.

The Jays have been struggling to find offense this year and recently cut both Daniel Vogelbach and Cavan Biggio from the roster, calling up Horwitz and Barger in an attempt to find some extra runs. The recall of Martinez was more motivated by Bichette’s injury but could perhaps help in that regard as well, though it’s possible it’s just a brief stay on the roster if Bichette is indeed back quickly.

The Jays are currently sporting a record of 35-37, not completely buried in the standings but they’re five games back of a playoff spot at the moment. They are reportedly going to wait until after the All-Star break to decide on how they approach the July 30 deadline.

If the recent roster shakeup can help them climb in the standings, then perhaps they can avoid a summer selloff. If not, the rumors on players nearing free agency will grow louder. That’s particularly true of Guerrero and Bichette, who are each set to hit the open market after 2025. Though with Bichette struggling this year and now injured as well, the Jays may have concerns about selling low, compounded by the public relations hit of selling a player who has been such a key part of the franchise for years. That will make the coming weeks very interesting for the club and Bichette, with the trade deadline on July 30, six weeks from today.

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