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Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

Which of these hot starts are for real?
Orioles 50.39% (4,587 votes)
Yankees 24.18% (2,201 votes)
Brewers 10.41% (948 votes)
Royals 9.70% (883 votes)
Mets 5.32% (484 votes)
Total Votes: 9,103
Which of these cold starts are for real?
Marlins 38.92% (3,900 votes)
Cardinals 21.01% (2,105 votes)
Twins 13.57% (1,360 votes)
Giants 10.24% (1,026 votes)
Astros 10.16% (1,018 votes)
Mariners 6.11% (612 votes)
Total Votes: 10,021

Kyle Hendricks’ Tough Start

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Few players have had a more difficult start to 2024 than Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs righty has been rocked for 24 runs over his first 17 innings. He has surrendered an MLB-high seven home runs. Hendricks has allowed more than a run per inning in each of his first four appearances, only completing five innings once.

That’s a far cry from his resurgent showing last season. After consecutive seasons with an ERA near 5.00 in 2021-22, the veteran sinkerballer rebounded with a strong 3.74 mark. Aside from a six-week stint on the injured list, Hendricks had a strong year. It was a fairly easy call for the Cubs to exercise a $16.5MM team option for 2024. While it didn’t always seem as if things were trending in that direction, Hendricks’ platform showing was impressive enough that the option was a straightforward decision by the time it was up for consideration.

There’s still plenty of time for him to turn things around, but this clearly isn’t the opening the former ERA champ and the Cubs were expecting. Hendricks’ starts have come against the Rangers, Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks. They’re all above-average to excellent offensive teams, so it isn’t as if the Cubs have faced an easy set of opponents. Still, this is the worst four-start stretch of Hendricks’ 11-year MLB career in terms of run prevention. He has typically been a slow starter — his career ERA in March/April is more than a run and a half higher than in any other month — but this is an especially rough few weeks.

It’s difficult to know how much emphasis to place on any player’s first couple weeks of the season, especially ones at an extreme. The Cubs surely don’t want to overrate what amounts to a 17-inning sample. Hendricks is a particularly tough pitcher to evaluate because he’s an anomaly in the modern game. He had an excellent seven-year run to start his career behind top-of-the-scale command and an elite changeup to overcome well below-average velocity. Over the past three-plus years, his results have been less consistent.

The velocity and movement profile on Hendricks’ pitches this year isn’t much different than where it was in 2023. His changeup isn’t missing quite as many bats, but his game has never been built on swing-and-miss totals. The far bigger issue has been the damage Hendricks is allowing on contact. Beyond the homers, opponents are hitting almost .400 on balls in play — nearly .100 points higher than the league average.

Both the home runs and BABIP will come down to some extent. Hendricks certainly isn’t going to continue running an ERA above 12.00. Yet it also seems that last year’s sub-4.00 mark was probably anomalous. Hendricks surrendered just 0.85 home runs per nine last season but was in the 1.6 HR/9 range in both 2021 and ’22. Maintaining last year’s success keeping the ball in the yard was always going to be a tough task. Even if his home run rate settles back into the 2021-22 range, Hendricks would project for an ERA approaching 5.00.

That could eventually force the coaching staff to consider moving him out of the rotation. They’re not at that point yet. The Cubs list Hendricks as their probable starter for Sunday’s series finale with the Marlins. That’ll be by far the weakest lineup against which he’s gotten the ball this year. Manager Craig Counsell indicated yesterday the Cubs weren’t considering skipping that start.

“I think frankly, all of our pitching stuff is we’ve got to get through every day,” Counsell told reporters (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). “And then we’re in a tough enough spot, right? We’ve just got to get through the day and then reevaluate it and make an assessment going forward. We’re going to need Kyle’s innings in his next start.”

That could lead the Cubs to proceed with a six-man rotation for the time being. Jameson Taillon has been reinstated from his season-opening injured list stint and will take the ball Friday. He slots back into a starting staff that also includes Shota Imanaga and Jordan Wicks. If the Cubs wanted to go back to a five-man rotation, swingman Javier Assad and rookie Ben Brown would be the straightforward candidates for a move to the bullpen or (in Brown’s case) back to Triple-A Iowa. Yet they’ve each pitched well in the early going. Assad has allowed only four runs through 16 2/3 innings. Brown has allowed eight runs — six of them in a rocky first start — over his first 16 1/3 frames with a solid 23.4% strikeout rate.

The Cubs have been without ace Justin Steele since he left his Opening Day start with a hamstring strain. He’s coming off a recent 25-pitch bullpen session but won’t be back in an MLB game until sometime next month. That could buy the coaching staff time to stick with a six-man rotation or temporarily bump Brown out of the mix. If everyone else is healthy by the time Steele comes back, they might face a tougher decision on whether to continue giving Hendricks the ball every fifth day.

Chicago is midway through a stretch of 10 consecutive game days. They’re off next Monday, their only reprieve before they play 19 in a row through May 8. After his start against Miami, Hendricks would be in line for matchups against the Red Sox and Brewers if the Cubs stay on a six-man trajectory.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox To Select Cam Booser

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Left-hander Cam Booser is joining the Red Sox in Pittsburgh tomorrow, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. The lefty will be added to the club’s 40-man roster, per Andrew Parker of Beyond the Monster, who adds that lefty Joe Jacques will be optioned to open a spot on the active roster. The Sox will also need to open a 40-man roster spot but could do so easily by transferring Trevor Story to the 60-day injured list, since he will miss the rest of the year due to shoulder surgery.

Booser will crack a major league roster for the first time at an usually old age, as his 32nd birthday is just a few weeks away. It’s a testament to his determination that he will make it to the show after all these years, as he made his minor league debut over a decade ago, playing Rookie ball in the Twins’ system in 2013. After a few years in the minors, he topped out at High-A in 2017, not pitching in any official capacity for the next few years.

He resurfaced with the Chicago Dogs, an indy ball team, in 2021. He tossed 23 1/3 innings with a 1.93 earned run average for the Dogs that year and showed enough promise to get a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks for 2022. He tossed 25 innings in Double-A but struggled with a 6.48 ERA and got released. He then joined the Lancaster Barnstormers, another indy ball club, and tossed 11 2/3 innings with a 4.63 ERA.

He was able to secure himself a minor league contract with the Red Sox for 2023 and made 48 Triple-A appearances last year. He had a 4.99 ERA in his 57 2/3 innings, striking out 26.7% of batters faced while walking 9.7%. He received an invite to major league camp in 2024 and seemed to impress manager Álex Cora, as the skipper mentioned him to reporters last month, highlighting his high-90s fastball and ability to throw offspeed pitches in the zone.

It was around that same time during Spring Training that Ian Browne of MLB.com profiled the lefty. Booser apparently retired at the end of the 2017 season following several injuries, a marijuana suspension and “self-admitted attitude problems.” He then turned his attention to a carpentry career but stumbled back onto the mound by doing lessons with kids and rediscovering his past form.

“After the kiddos would leave, I would stay in the dark and throw into a net by myself for a couple of months. And through that process, I found out that my arm felt better than it ever had with that time off. One day, I got on the mound and my fastball was pretty good, 97-98 [mph]. So we figured, ‘Let’s give it a shot.’ I met with a trainer back home the next day and went out there to [independent] ball in 2021, and it’s been a great journey ever since.”

Booser didn’t break camp with the Sox but reported to Triple-A and has thrown 6 2/3 innings over four appearances this year, allowing two earned runs while striking out 15 opponents against just one walk. Though he obviously didn’t take the traditional path, Booser has found his way to the big leagues in amazingly unique fashion. The Sox have Brennan Bernardino and Joely Rodríguez in their bullpen but Booser will give them a third southpaw option.

Yankees Claim Taylor Trammell, Designate Kevin Smith

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed outfielder Taylor Trammell off waivers from the Dodgers, the latter club having designated him for assignment earlier this week. To open a roster spot for Trammell, the Yankees designated infielder Kevin Smith for assignment.

Trammell, 26, was only with the Dodgers for a couple of weeks. They claimed him off waivers from the Mariners in early April and he only got six hitless plate appearances, striking out three times, before getting bumped off the roster and put right back on waivers.

The Yankees are likely interested based on Trammell’s past status as one of the top prospects in the game. Selected 35th overall by the Reds in 2016, he was on Baseball America’s top 100 lists in three straight years starting in 2018.

But his results started to dip as he began to be passed around the league a bit. He was flipped to the Padres in the 2019 deal that sent Trevor Bauer to the Reds and Yasiel Puig to Cleveland, then was traded again, going to the Mariners in the 2020 deal that also sent Ty France and Andrés Muñoz to Seattle.

The Mariners gave him sporadic playing time in the majors over the past few years but he didn’t live up to his previous prospect hype. He currently has a line of .165/.266/.361 in 357 plate appearances, having struck out in 37.3% of those. His 10.9% walk rate is strong but the overall output has obviously not been good. He is now out of options, which is why the Mariners and Dodgers have each had to designate him for assignment in recent weeks.

Reasons for optimism can be found on Trammell’s Triple-A performance. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has 812 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He struck out in 24% of those but also drew walks at a 14% rate and hit 38 home runs. That’s to be taken with a grain of salt since those homers were all in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but his .274/.381/.506 batting line nonetheless translated to a 116 wRC+, indicating he was 16% above league average. He also stole 33 bases in 40 tries in that time.

The Yanks will give Trammell a roster spot to see if he can finally have his long-awaited breakout in pinstripes. While that’s a sensible decision in a vacuum, it seems less than ideal in terms of roster construction.

The Yankees already have a pretty loaded group in terms of outfielders, with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo getting the regular playing time. Giancarlo Stanton is in the designated hitter slot most days while Trent Grisham is on hand as a glove-first backup.

Smith was added to the roster on the weekend with the club’s infield injuries mounting. Oswald Peraza and DJ LeMahieu both started the season on the injured list, which prompted the Yanks to trade for Jon Berti. But then Berti himself landed on the IL a few days ago, which is what led the club to select Smith’s contract.

Swapping in Trammell for Smith will seemingly give the club a surplus of outfielders but leave them a bit shorthanded on the dirt. Oswaldo Cabrera has taken over as the regular third baseman amid all those injuries, taking a spot next to Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo. The Yankees have Jahmai Jones on hand as a depth infielder but he’s been given just one plate appearance so far this year and only has major league experience at second base and in left field.

LeMahieu is starting a rehab assignment this week but a bench of catcher Jose Trevino, Jones, Grisham and Trammell will leave the club a bit thin on the infield until LeMahieu is ready to rejoin the big league club. Someone will have to lose their roster spot when LeMahieu gets back and time will tell who that is. If Trammell hangs onto his spot, he can be retained well into the future. He has less than two years of service time, meaning he has four years of club control beyond the current campaign.

As for Smith, the Yankees will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He got into one game as a pinch runner during his time on the roster but didn’t get sent to the plate. He has hit .173/.215/.301 in his 333 career plate appearances at the major league level.

He seemed to have a Triple-A breakout in 2021 when he hit .285/.370/.561 for the top minor league affiliate of the Blue Jays. But since then, his Triple-A performance has been an average-ish .280/.340/.497, which translates to a 101 wRC+. He also struck out in  29.9% of his plate appearances in that time. Like Trammell, he’s out of options but comes with years of potential club control. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Yankees as depth but without occupying a roster spot.

Guardians Notes: McKenzie, Lively, Curry, Martinez

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Triston McKenzie has had a rough start to the season, allowing 11 runs over his first 13 innings. The lanky righty has issued 12 walks with just five strikeouts. His swinging strike rate has plummeted to 5.6% while his velocity has backed up. McKenzie’s average fastball has sat at 90.9 MPH, down from its standard 92-93 range.

McKenzie entered the season hoping for a rebound after his 2023 campaign was mostly lost to injury. He began last year on the shelf with a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder. He returned in June, made two starts, and then was shut back down after spraining the UCL in his throwing elbow. That initially led to concern that he might go under the knife, but he opted for non-surgical rehab. McKenzie made it back for a pair of appearances in the final week of the season.

While he was able to get back to the mound, McKenzie clearly hasn’t been operating at peak form. The 26-year-old candidly admitted to Zack Meisel and Jason Lloyd of the Athletic that he’s still unsure whether his decision not to undergo surgery was the correct one. McKenzie told The Athletic that he’s not pitching through pain but conceded the possibility of a serious injury is “always in the back of (his) head.” While he said that hasn’t changed his approach or effort level on the mound, he clearly hasn’t found his best stuff.

Meisel’s and Lloyd’s piece is worth a full perusal, as they also speak with former Cleveland reliever Bryan Shaw and Guards starter Shane Bieber about the health and contractual considerations a player weighs when deciding whether to undergo surgery. Bieber, of course, opted for non-surgical rehab for elbow inflammation last season. After two excellent starts this year, he required Tommy John surgery — a brutal development six months before his first trip to free agency. McKenzie has three seasons of remaining arbitration control and won’t get to the open market until the 2026-27 offseason.

Bieber’s absence makes it all the more significant that McKenzie is able to get back on track in short order. The Guardians have also been without Gavin Williams thus far after the second-year righty experienced elbow discomfort of his own this spring. McKenzie has been joined Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee and Carlos Carrasco in the rotation. Of that quartet, only Carrasco has an ERA below 4.82 so far.

The Guardians have nevertheless gotten out to a great start behind an excellent bullpen and a surprisingly potent offense. They enter today’s series finale against the Red Sox with a 12-6 record. Still, the rotation will feel tenuous — at least until Williams’ return — if McKenzie’s struggles continue.

In the short term, it seems journeyman righty Ben Lively will hold down the #5 spot. He somewhat surprisingly landed a major league contract from Cleveland after being waived by the Reds last winter. Lively started the season on the IL after being delayed by an illness, but he was activated for his team debut last night. The 32-year-old worked five innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts in a loss to Boston.

Lively is out of options, so the Guardians need to keep him on the big league club or put him on waivers. That perhaps gave him the edge over Xzavion Curry, who was optioned back to Triple-A Columbus as the corresponding move for Lively’s reinstatement. Curry had returned from his own virus-related IL stint to make his season debut on Monday. He worked five scoreless frames with a trio of strikeouts and could be the top depth option if anyone from the current rotation suffers an injury.

In other Guardians news, the team placed infield prospect Angel Martínez on the 60-day injured list yesterday. According to the MLB.com injury tracker, Martínez is undergoing surgery to repair a hamate fracture in his wrist. The 22-year-old has yet to make his MLB debut. He split last season between the top two levels of the minors, hitting .251/.321/.392 with 14 homers.

Brewers Outright Kevin Herget

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Right-hander Kevin Herget has cleared waivers and been outrighted by the Brewers to Triple-A Nashville, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The Brewers had designated the righty for assignment on the weekend.

Herget, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Brewers in the offseason. He had his contract selected April 9 and was bounced off the roster five days later without making an appearance. Prior to joining the big league club, he made four scoreless appearances in Triple-A, striking out five batters while only issuing one walk. He also had two scoreless appearances in Spring Training.

Though he didn’t get into a big league game with the Brewers, he has 31 1/3 innings of major league experience with the Rays and Reds. He has a 5.74 earned run average in that time, striking out just 12.6% of batters faced but limiting walks to a tiny rate of 4.4%. His work in the minors has naturally been more intriguing. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has tossed 230 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.86 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate.

Herget has been outrighted before in his career, which gives him the right to reject this outright assignment and elect free agency. It’s not yet clear whether he’s chosen to report to Nashville or head back out to the open market.

Red Sox Place Tyler O’Neill On Injured List

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The Red Sox announced they’ve placed Tyler O’Neill on the seven-day concussion injured list, retroactive to April 16. Rob Refsnyder was reinstated from the IL to take the active roster spot.

O’Neill suffered the injury on Monday when he collided with Rafael Devers while tracking a shallow fly ball. O’Neill’s forehead hit the back of Devers’ head. Devers stayed in the game but O’Neill came out. While he initially cleared concussion protocol, he hasn’t played in either of the last two games. He’s evidently still not ready to return and will be out for at least another five days. MassLive’s Christopher Smith tweets that O’Neill was diagnosed with a mild concussion.

Acquired in something of a buy-low offseason trade, O’Neill has been off to a scorching start to his Red Sox tenure. He’s hitting .313/.459/.750 and is third in the majors with seven homers. O’Neill showed impact ability intermittently throughout his time with the Cardinals, but he’d produced at a roughly league average level from 2022-23. He’ll be a free agent for the first time at the end of this season.

In other injury news, manager Alex Cora said the Sox are sending Devers for an MRI on his left knee (relayed by Sean McAdam of MassLive). The two-time All-Star has played through some discomfort in the joint in recent days, although there’s nothing to suggest it’s related to Monday’s collision. He was the designated hitter yesterday but is out of the lineup for this afternoon’s contest with the Guardians.

It seems the current round of imaging is mostly precautionary. The Sox surely want to rule out any possibility that Devers is playing through some kind of structural issue that would necessitate a shutdown. He’s still day-to-day pending the MRI results.

Devers has gotten off to a slow start. He’s hitting only .188 through his first 13 games. A massive 15.5% walk rate has kept his on-base percentage at a respectable clip, but Devers clearly hasn’t found his typical form. His hard contact percentage has been well below his normal level. It’s likely that playing through discomfort — he also battled shoulder soreness around Opening Day — has contributed to the slump. Assuming there’s nothing significantly wrong with his knee, Devers shouldn’t have much issue recapturing his groove offensively.

There’s nevertheless added uncertainty to an already shaky Boston infield. Devers and Triston Casas flank a much less imposing middle infield group. Injuries to Vaughn Grissom and Trevor Story have pushed the likes of Enmanuel Valdez, Pablo Reyes and David Hamilton into meaningful roles. Story is out for the season, so shortstop will remain a question all year unless the Sox go outside the organization.

Grissom, who started the year on the shelf with a hamstring strain, will take over second base within two weeks. He began a minor league rehab assignment last Friday, opening a 20-day window for his activation to the MLB roster. Cora said this morning that the Sox aren’t likely to reinstate Grissom before their forthcoming week-long road trip (X link via The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey). Grissom didn’t get any game action in March, so he’s using the rehab period as something of an abbreviated Spring Training.

Latest On Padres, Diamond Sports Group

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11:38am: The second payout is evidently not all that significant. Sanders reports (on X) that the Padres will receive roughly $17MM in total from the settlement, indicating the remaining-asset value is roughly $6.5MM.

10:06am: There were minor developments in the long-running Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy proceedings this week. Most notable is the revelation of a deal that the broadcasting conglomerate struck with the Padres last summer.

As Daniel Kaplan of Awful Announcing first reported, Diamond agreed in July to a deal that could pay the San Diego organization as much as $78.9MM to resolve breach of contract claims which the Padres made after Diamond dropped the team’s TV deal last spring. The Padres initially sought a $162MM award as compensation for the lapsed television contract before agreeing to the lesser sum in mediation.

That money has not yet been paid. The settlement calls for an initial payment of roughly $10.5MM, followed by a second payout worth a maximum of $68.3MM that’ll be determined by calculating the remaining assets of that contract’s value after the Diamond/Padres RSN network is officially liquidated. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Diamond will owe the approximate $10.5MM payment by the middle of May. The timeline for the second sum is still not clear.

As part of the agreement, the Padres and Diamond agreed to drop all litigation against one another. The Friars have proceeded without an RSN deal since Diamond abandoned the contract. MLB has handled in-market broadcasting in San Diego via MLB.tv. The league covered 80% of what the Padres would’ve received — Sanders writes that the deal was valued around $60MM annually — for the 2023 season. Commissioner Rob Manfred has said that the league would not cover lost rights fees for this year and beyond.

The Padres are one of two teams which Diamond had covered but abandoned midseason. The company did the same with the Diamondbacks a few weeks after dropping the San Diego deal. It is not known if Diamond has agreed to any kind of settlement with the Arizona franchise.

Diamond continues to hold local broadcasting rights for 12 teams: the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Royals, Tigers and Twins. While it initially seemed as if Diamond would disband after the 2024 season, an influx of cash as part of a streaming partnership with Amazon has given the company confidence about its viability beyond this year. That’s not entirely shared by MLB, which continues to express skepticism about Diamond’s long-term prospects. The Atheltic’s Evan Drellich writes that the bankruptcy court has scheduled a hearing for June 18 on the company’s specific plans for its $450MM in financing from the Amazon deal.

Rangers Promote Jack Leiter

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April 18: Texas officially selected Leiter’s contract on Thursday morning. The Rangers optioned Grant Anderson to Triple-A in a corresponding move. To create space on the 40-man roster, they transferred lefty reliever Brock Burke to the 60-day injured list. Burke broke his non-throwing hand last week and will now be out of action until at least the middle of June.

April 16: The Rangers announced this morning that top pitching prospect Jack Leiter will have his contract selected to the major league roster and make his big league debut Thursday against the Tigers. Texas has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to accommodate the right-hander, whom they drafted with the No. 2 overall pick in 2021.

It’s an early birthday present for Leiter, who’ll turn 24 just three days after making his long-awaited debut. The second-generation talent is the son of two-time World Series champion and two-time All-Star Al Leiter, the nephew of 11-year MLB veteran Mark Leiter, and the cousin of current Cubs setup man Mark Leiter Jr.

The fourth Leiter to reach the majors, Jack hasn’t had the most straightforward path to the show despite his considerable draft and prospect pedigree. He annihilated hitters in college ball at Vanderbilt, fanning 41% of his opponents in two seasons prior to being drafted, but struggled with command following an aggressive assignment to Double-A right out of the gate.

Leiter walked more than 13% of his opponents and posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his first two seasons at the Double-A level but has been an absolute monster in his first three Triple-A appearances this season. In 14 1/3 innings, he’s punched out 25 of his 57 opponents (43.9%), walked only three (5.3%) and surrendered just 11 hits. Four of those, unfortunately, have left the yard and saddled Leiter with a 3.77 ERA that’s far less impressive than his overpowering K-BB profile would otherwise suggest, but it’s hard not to be encouraged by the strikeout and walk trends. That’s especially true given that Leiter also pitched 12 2/3 innings for Texas this spring and posted a much-improved 9.6% walk rate in that short time as well.

Texas’ rotation has been hammered by injuries. Jacob deGrom, signed to a five-year contract in the 2022-23 offseason, opened the year on the 60-day injured list after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June. Max Scherzer, acquired at least year’s trade deadline, required offseason back surgery to repair a herniated disc. Twenty-six-year old southpaw Cody Bradford was a godsend through three starts to begin the season (1.40 ERA) … until he suffered a lower back strain of his own and was subsequently placed on the 15-day IL.

Leiter will step onto a starting staff that’s in flux. Veteran righty Michael Lorenzen, who inked a one-year deal late in spring training, made his Rangers debut yesterday with five shutout frames over his former Tigers teammates (albeit with five walks against four strikeouts). Veteran lefty Andrew Heaney would’ve been on tap for Thursday’s start, but he’s yet to last five innings in any of his three starts while pitching to a 6.75 ERA. It seems Leiter will overtake that spot, at least for the time being.

That all points to a rotation that’ll include Lorenzen, Leiter, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Wednesday’s starter Dane Dunning — at least for the time being. It’s not clear how long a leash Leiter will be given if he struggles out of the gate, though one would imagine the Rangers are planning to give him multiple starts following his initial call to the big leagues. Manager Bruce Bochy and/or general manager Chris Young will presumably expand on the team’s plans for their young righty in the days to come.

Leiter’s 2022-23 struggles were enough to drop him off prospect rankings, meaning he’s ineligible for MLB’s prospect promotion incentives. He won’t accrue a full year of service time, given the lack of sufficient time remaining on the calendar, nor can he net the Rangers a draft pick based on his Rookie of the Year voting. As it stands, he’ll be controllable through the 2030 season and is set up on pace to reach Super Two status, granting him four trips through the arbitration process rather than the standard three. The first of those arb-eligible offseasons would come in the winter of 2026-27, though future optional assignments could yet impact both his free agent timeline and arbitration status.

The Opener: Leiter, Taillon, Rehab Assignments

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Leiter to make MLB debut:

The second overall pick of the 2021 draft is set to make his MLB debut today, as the Rangers announced earlier this week that right-hander Jack Leiter will be promoted to make today’s start against the Tigers in Detroit, where he’ll be matched up against veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda. Leiter, who will celebrate his 24th birthday on Sunday, was a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport after being drafted out of Vanderbilt three years ago but has struggled in professional ball with ERAs north of 5.00 in each of the last two seasons.

That being said, the righty has looked good three appearances into his 2024 season, posting a 3.72 ERA at the Triple-A level while striking out an incredible 43.9% of batters faced against a walk rate of just 5.3%. If Leiter has recaptured the form that made him the most dominant pitching prospect on the planet during his college days, that would be a huge boost to a Rangers club that started the season without veteran aces Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Leiter’s debut is scheduled for 1:10pm local time in Detroit and 12:10pm CT for fans in Texas.

2. Taillon to make season debut:

The Cubs have weathered plenty of key injuries early in the 2024 campaign, ranging from staff ace Justin Steele suffering a hamstring strain on Opening Day to right fielder Seiya Suzuki being placed on the shelf with an oblique strain earlier this week. The club is slated to move closer to full strength later today when right-hander Jameson Taillon, who is set to be activated from the injured list today, makes his first start of the 2024 campaign. Taillon, 32, is in the second year of his four-year, $68MM contract with the Cubs and posted slightly below average results (93 ERA+) last year after a brutal first half that saw him post a 6.93 ERA and 5.14 FIP in his first 14 starts.

He’ll look to turn the page on that rough performance starting today, when he’ll face off against left-hander A.J. Puk and the Marlins at Wrigley Field in a game schedule to begin at 6:40pm local time this evening. Taillon’s return could see the Cubs push youngster Ben Brown, who has dominated with a 1.23 ERA in 14 2/3 innings of work since joining the club’s rotation, into a relief role, though it’s possible the club could make another move like optioning young lefty Jordan Wicks or going with a six-man rotation if they want to keep Brown in a starting capacity.

3. LeMahieu, Lowe to begin rehab assignments:

A pair of key players in the AL East are on the road to their season debuts today, as MLB.com indicates that veteran Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu is set to begin a rehab assignment as soon as today, while reporting earlier this week indicated that Rays outfielder Josh Lowe is also slated to begin a rehab assignment today. LeMahieu, 35, suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right foot during Spring Training and figures to get the majority of his reps at third base, where Oswaldo Cabrera is off to a hot start, upon his return to action. The veteran was roughly league average at the plate in a down season last year but has a strong .285/.358/.430 slash line since joining the Yankees prior to the 2019 season.

As for Lowe, the 26-year-old missed virtually all of Spring Training due to hip inflammation and an oblique strain. The former top prospect enjoyed a breakout season at the plate with Tampa last year, slashing an excellent .292/.335/.500 in 501 trips to the plate. In 2024, the Rays appear poised to rely on Lowe as their primary right fielder with Randy Arozarena and Jose Siri manning left and center field. Its been an injury-riddled start to the season for the Rays, particularly on the positional side where Lowe is joined by Jonny DeLuca, Taylor Walls, Brandon Lowe, and Jonathan Aranda on the shelf. Despite those injury woes, the Rays have managed to keep their heads above water with a 10-9 record to this point in the season, though that’s only been good enough for a three-way tie for last place in a highly competitive AL East.

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