Reds Claim Liván Soto From Orioles
The Reds have claimed infielder Liván Soto off waivers from the Orioles, per announcements from both clubs. The O’s had recently designated him for assignment. The Reds transferred Tejay Antone to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move and optioned Soto to Triple-A Louisville. The O’s also announced that catcher David Bañuelos, also recently designated for assignment, has cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk.
Soto, 24 in June, has been riding the roster carousel all year. He began the year with the Angels but went to the Orioles via waivers in February. The Angels claimed him right back shortly thereafter but the O’s claimed him a second time last week. But when Tyler Wells suddenly developed some elbow inflammation earlier this week and the O’s didn’t have time to get a fresh arm from the minors, they added Bañuelos, who was already on hand as part of the taxi squad. But doing so required bumping Soto off his roster spot yet again.
He continues to garner interest based on his speed and defensive versatility. He has racked up a decent number of steals in the minors while playing the three infield positions to the left of first base, as well as a very brief stint in the outfield.
Offensively, he’s hit .375/.414/.531 in his major league career, though in a tiny sample of 71 plate appearances. His larger body of work in the minors hasn’t been as impressive, as he’s hit .246/.340/.355 for a wRC+ of 86 in 1,505 plate appearances since the start of 2021. Nonetheless, the defense and speed are attractive, especially since he has two options and doesn’t require an active roster spot.
The Reds came into this year with a surplus of infield talent, so much so that Spencer Steer and Jonathan India were seemingly ticketed for either outfield work or multi-positional roles. However, Noelvi Marté was given an 80-game PED suspension and then Matt McLain required shoulder surgery, subtracting two of their planned everyday options. The club acquired Santiago Espinal for a bit of extra infield depth and now Soto can give them a bit more.
The Reds effectively had a roster spot to burn since Antone required season-ending surgery last week. That made him destined to be transferred to the 60-day IL at some point, which has now come to pass and allowed the club to add Soto to the system.
As for Bañuelos, as mentioned, he was hastily added to the O’s roster when they had an open spot and he was already with the club. They put him into the game late, allowing him to make his major league debut when he hit for Colton Cowser and flied out. Bañuelos described it as “one of the coolest moments of my life,” though the O’s designated him for assignment the next day. Now that he’s cleared waivers, he will return to his previous role, providing the O’s with non-roster depth in the catching position.
White Sox Sign Cody Sedlock To Minor League Deal
The White Sox have signed right-hander Cody Sedlock to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to the Complex League for now but will presumably move up to a higher affiliate after ramping up.
Sedlock, 29 in June, has a tiny amount of major league experience, more like a sip of coffee than a cup of coffee. He appeared in one game for the Orioles in 2022, tossing three innings. He allowed five earned runs that day while issuing one walk and striking out three opponents. After that one outing, he was outrighted off the roster and traded to the Tigers. He become a free agent at season’s end and didn’t sign anywhere for the 2023 season.
Prior to that major league debut and gap year, the righty was a notable prospect for the Orioles. Selected 27th overall in 2016, he was considered the #2 prospect in that club’s system by Baseball America in 2017. However, injuries have largely gotten in the way since then, something that Keith Law of The Athletic attributes to a heavy workload during Sedlock’s college years.
The righty tossed 101 1/3 innings for Illinois in his draft year and then another 27 frames at Low-A after being selected, but he hasn’t been able to reach 100 innings pitched in any season since then. Along the way, he had forearm and shoulder injuries and also required surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. He has a combined 4.46 earned run average in the 422 minor league innings that he’s thrown over the years, striking out 21.6% of batters while walking 10.7%.
It’s hard to know what to expect from Sedlock at this point. There will likely be some rust after sitting out all of last year but it’s also possible the rest allowed his body to recover in some way. For the Sox, there’s little harm in taking a flier on a former first-rounder to see what happens.
If Sedlock looks good after getting into game shape, he’ll give the staff some non-roster depth. The Sox have recently traded away most of the best pitchers as part of their ongoing rebuild and are likely to make make even more trades this summer since they are currently the worst team in the league at 3-15. If Sedlock gets into good form in the next few months, there could be a path for him to get back to the big leagues.
Braves Select Luke Williams
The Braves announced that they have selected the contract of infielder/outfielder Luke Williams, with outfielder Forrest Wall optioned in a corresponding move. The club had an open spot on the 40-man roster.
Williams, 27, is a versatile player who has bounced around the league in recent years. He was drafted by the Phillies and made his debut with that club in 2021. But in 2022, he went to the Giants, Marlins and Dodgers via small trades or waiver claims. The Dodgers non-tendered him after that season and re-signed him to a minor league deal. He made their roster during the 2023 campaign but then went to Atlanta via waivers. For a second straight year, he was non-tendered and then re-signed a minor league deal with the club that cut him.
While collecting all those jerseys, he also found time to play all four infield positions and all three outfield slots. He even threw one inning on the mound for the Dodgers last year. His 263 major league plate appearances have led to a batting line of .225/.281/.295, wRC+ of 60. That’s obviously subpar offense but he’s also stolen 17 bases in 23 tries and provides the aforementioned defensive versatility.
His offense has naturally been better in the minors. Going back to the start of 2022, he has hit .267/.356/.435 for a wRC+ of 97. That’s still a bit below average but it’s not bad for a guy who can swipe a bag from time to time while also wearing multiple different gloves. The combination is clearly appealing to teams, based on how many of them have acquired him in the past few years.
Atlanta recently lost Ozzie Albies to the injured list due to a broken toe, so their needs on the infield are a little higher than in the outfield. They have Luis Guillorme and David Fletcher on hand to cover second base but Williams can give them some extra cover there, while also potentially moving to the outfield.
Wall has been with the club all year but has barely played, as he’s been put into two games as a late substitution, only taking one plate appearance. The club has Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall taking regular playing time on the grass, with Marcell Ozuna as the designated hitter.
Rather than have Wall sit on the bench, it seems the club will send him to Triple-A for regular playing time down there. Williams can take over as the occasional pinch runner or defensive replacement while also giving the club a bit more infield depth. Williams still has an option so the club can decide to send him back down to the minors later without being exposed to waivers.
The Opener: Montgomery, Verlander, Yankees
As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. Montgomery to debut:
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery is slated to make the first start of his Diamondbacks career tonight after two starts at the Triple-A level to help the southpaw build up after he missed Spring Training while lingering on the free agent market. Montgomery will take the ball opposite fellow late-signing lefty Blake Snell and the Giants in San Francisco, with first pitch scheduled for 7:15pm local time. The lefty is already on the 40-man roster, but Arizona will have to make a corresponding move to clear space for Montgomery on the active roster before tonight’s game.
The 31-year-old enjoyed an excellent season with the Cardinals and Rangers last year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA in 32 regular season starts before going on to post a 2.90 ERA with Texas in the postseason en route to the first World Series championship in franchise history. Now with the Diamondbacks on a short-term deal, Montgomery will look to avoid the slow starts to the season other late signers such as Snell (12.86 ERA), Cody Bellinger (75 wRC+), and Matt Chapman (82 wRC+) have suffered so far this season.
2. Verlander to be activated:
Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander has been sidelined to this point in the 2024 season amid nagging shoulder fatigue that cost him virtually all of Spring Training. The veteran righty has since made two rehab starts in the minor leagues and built up to 78 pitches, which was enough for the Astros to decide he was ready to make his season debut tonight against the Nationals in D.C. opposite young lefty MacKenzie Gore. Verlander, 41, took a bit of a step back last year from the dominant form he had shown since first joining Houston in 2017 but was still a well above average starter, posting a 3.22 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.86 FIP in 27 starts between the Mets and Astros. The 510th start of Verlander’s illustrious career is expected to begin at 6:45pm local time this evening.
3. Yankees broadcaster to be honored:
John Sterling has been the radio voice of the Yankees since first joining the club’s booth in 1989 more than three decades ago, but a press release from the club earlier this week announced that the longtime play-by-play man has retired after calling his final game earlier this month. The 85-year-old called more than 5,000 games for the Yankees in total and saw them make the postseason in 24 of his 36 years as the club’s radio voice, including their World Series championships in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2009. Sterling will be recognized for his lengthy tenure in the Bronx tomorrow, prior to the Yankees 1:05pm local time game against the Rays.
“I am a very blessed human being,” Sterling said in a statement earlier this week. “I have been able to do what I wanted, broadcasting for 64 years. As a little boy growing up in New York as a Yankees fan, I was able to broadcast the Yankees for 36 years. It’s all to my benefit, and I leave very, very happy. I look forward to seeing everyone again on Saturday.”
Max Scherzer Ahead Of Schedule, Could Return In Early May
When Max Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back in December, the Rangers announced that he would likely be on the shelf into late June. A few weeks ago, GM Chris Young indicated the team wasn’t going to place Scherzer on the 60-day injured list, however, as his rehab had progressed to the point that there was optimism he could return at some point in late May. That timetable has been pushed up even further now, it seems.
Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News wrote this week that Scherzer will throw 40 pitches against live hitters Friday — his second session against live hitters this week. McFarland spoke with Scherzer following his first session, wherein he faced Ezequiel Duran, Andrew Knizner and Davis Wendzel. The three-time Cy Young winner said he threw all his pitches and “stepped on it” in that first session. In a video piece for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal reports the Rangers are hoping Scherzer will be ready as soon as early May.
It’s a fairly remarkable recovery and a welcome bit of good news for a Rangers club that opened the year with Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle on the injured list — only to lose lefty Cody Bradford to an IL stint of his own after an excellent three-start run to begin his season. Texas called former No. 2 overall pick Jack Leiter to the big leagues today, but his debut effort didn’t go as hoped; Leiter was tagged for seven runs in just 3 2/3 innings. The Rangers have also seen veteran lefty Andrew Heaney yield nine runs in a dozen innings with particularly worrying command issues: seven walks and three hit batters.
The ostensible hope among Rangers brass for much of the offseason was that in-house arms like Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and the aforementioned Bradford could help patch things together until veterans deGrom, Scherzer and Mahle returned. Though lefty Jordan Montgomery was hopeful of a return to the Rangers in free agency, ownership never seemed inclined to dole out a contract matching the magnitude of his asking price — either in total length/dollars or on a per-year basis once it became clear he was amenable to shorter-term arrangement. Texas did make a late move to add Michael Lorenzen at a bargain $4.5MM price point, and he’s recently joined the rotation after building up in Triple-A.
For now, the quartet of Eovaldi, Gray, Dunning and Lorenzen seem set in stone. It’s not clear whether Leiter will get another start or was merely called up for a one-off appearance. Regardless of the short-term plans, if Scherzer is indeed able to return in the first week or two of May, that could push both Leiter and Heaney out of the rotation mix, barring injuries elsewhere on the staff.
Scherzer, 39, is in the final season of a three-year, $130MM contract originally signed with the Mets. He’s owed $43.333MM this season, though the Rangers are only on the hook for $12.5MM of that sum as part of last July’s trade sending him from Queens to Arlington. Though not the clear-cut No. 1 starter he once was, Scherzer wasn’t far off vintage form following that deadline swap. In eight starts with the Rangers, he pitched to a 3.20 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He also missed the final three weeks of the season with a teres major strain, however, and struggled in three postseason starts upon returning (seven runs, 11 hits, five walks, seven strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings).
Red Sox Acquire Vladimir Gutierrez
The Red Sox announced Thursday evening that they’ve acquired right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez from the Brewers in exchange for cash and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester. Milwaukee designated Gutierrez for assignment earlier in the week. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Boston transferred injured shortstop Trevor Story from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Story underwent season-ending shoulder surgery last week. The Sox also announced that lefty Joe Jacques was optioned to Worcester following today’s game.
The 28-year-old Gutierrez originally signed with the Reds on a hefty $4.75MM bonus (plus a 100% tax on that bonus) in 2016 after defecting from his native Cuba. He profiled as one of Cincinnati’s top pitching prospects for a few years before making his MLB debut in 2021. The 6’1″, 205-pound righty pitched 150 2/3 innings for the Reds from 2021-22, turning in a 5.44 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate that were both worse than league-average.
Despite those struggles, Gutierrez would likely have received a longer look with the Reds — had he remained healthy. His elbow had other ideas, as a torn ulnar collateral ligament in ’22 led to Tommy John surgery. Gutierrez returned to the mound to toss a handful of minor league innings last September but didn’t get back to the big leagues. He was removed from Cincinnati’s 40-man roster and became a free agent following the season. After a few showcases for big league scouts, he signed a minor league deal with the Marlins.
It’s been a whirlwind three weeks for Gutierrez, who was selected to the Marlins’ 40-man roster and pitched four innings of long relief to help spare their taxed bullpen. That four-inning appearance meant he’d be unavailable for several days, so the Fish designated him for assignment to clear space for another fresh arm in the ‘pen. Miami surely hoped to be able to pass Gutierrez through waivers and keep him as a depth option, but the Brewers scooped him up off waivers on April 5. He was rocked for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone Triple-A start with Milwaukee, who designated Gutierrez themselves in order to bring fellow righty Tobias Myers up to the MLB roster.
Now with his third team in a span of three weeks, Gutierrez will hope to get into a groove in Worcester and pitch his way into a big league opportunity. The Red Sox lost Lucas Giolito for the season before Opening Day, and they’ve more recently placed Garrett Whitlock (oblique strain) and Nick Pivetta (flexor strain) on the injured list. That leaves the Sox with a rotation including Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Cooper Criswell. Veteran Chase Anderson is on hand as a long man in the ‘pen and could move into the rotation following Whitlock’s IL placement just yesterday. Gutierrez joins lefty Brandon Walter and righty Naoyuki Uwasawa as a rotation depth option on the 40-man roster.
Rangers Sign Shaun Anderson, Collin Wiles To Minor League Deals
The Rangers have signed righties Shaun Anderson and Collin Wiles to minor league pacts, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Both pitchers have been assigned to Triple-A Round Rock.
This will mark the 29-year-old Anderson’s second stint in the Rangers organization. Texas claimed him off waivers from the Twins in 2021, but he lasted less than a month in the organization before being designated for assignment and claimed by the Orioles.
A former third-round pick by the Red Sox, Anderson has pitched in parts of four big league seasons, totaling 135 2/3 frames with an unsightly 5.84 ERA. Fielding-independent marks like FIP and SIERA are only a bit more favorable, at 5.00 and 5.24, respectively. The 6’6″ Anderson doesn’t throw especially hard (career 93 mph average fastball) but has excellent extension and tantalizing spin rates that have at times resulted in plus swinging-strike rates. He hasn’t been consistent enough at inducing whiffs, however, as evidenced by a career 17.1% strikeout rate. He’s walked 9.9% of his opponents in the big leagues.
Anderson opened the 2023 season with the KBO’s Kia Tigers and pitched reasonably well, tossing 79 innings with a 3.76 ERA, 19% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 61.7% ground-ball rate. That run preceded a Triple-A look with the Phillies, where he pitched to a 4.85 ERA in 52 innings with diminished strikeout and grounder rates. In a total of 249 Triple-A innings, Anderson has a 3.90 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate.
Wiles, also 29, reached the majors with the A’s in 2022 but has just 9 2/3 innings of big league experience. He allowed five earned runs on 11 hits and two walks with nine punchouts in that brief cup of coffee. This minor league deal marks a return to the organization that originally selected him with the No. 53 overall pick of the 2012 draft. Wiles was in the Rangers’ system from 2012-21 before departing as a minor league free agent and signing with Oakland. He racked up 143 1/3 innings in their Triple-A rotation and made four relief appearances in the majors.
Wiles doesn’t have standout run-prevention numbers (career 4.57 ERA) or strikeout rates (17%) in parts of 10 minor league seasons. He sports plus command though, as evidenced by a career 5.3% walk rate that’s actually improved as he’s climbed the minor league ladder (4.8% walk rate in both Double-A and Triple-A). Wiles signed the Brewers on a minor league deal in the 2022-23 offseason but wound up requiring shoulder surgery and didn’t pitch in 2023.
Both right-handers will give the Rangers some bullpen depth at a time when Brock Burke, Josh Sborz and Jonathan Hernandez are all on the injured list.
Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?
The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.
Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.
Orioles
The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.
Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday‘s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.
The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.
Royals
The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.
An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.
They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.
Yankees
The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.
Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.
The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.
They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.
Brewers
The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.
There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.
They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.
Mets
After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.
They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.
They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.
Giants
The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.
Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.
They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.
Cardinals
Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.
Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.
They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.
Mariners
The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.
The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.
Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.
The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.
Marlins
The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.
Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk‘s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.
They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.
Astros
The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.
Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)
With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.
The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.
Twins
The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.
Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.
In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.
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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)
Which of these hot starts are for real?
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Orioles 50% (4,587)
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Yankees 24% (2,201)
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Brewers 10% (948)
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Royals 10% (883)
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Mets 5% (484)
Total votes: 9,103
Which of these cold starts are for real?
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Marlins 39% (3,900)
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Cardinals 21% (2,105)
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Twins 14% (1,360)
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Giants 10% (1,026)
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Astros 10% (1,018)
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Mariners 6% (612)
Total votes: 10,021
Kyle Hendricks’ Tough Start
Few players have had a more difficult start to 2024 than Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs righty has been rocked for 24 runs over his first 17 innings. He has surrendered an MLB-high seven home runs. Hendricks has allowed more than a run per inning in each of his first four appearances, only completing five innings once.
That’s a far cry from his resurgent showing last season. After consecutive seasons with an ERA near 5.00 in 2021-22, the veteran sinkerballer rebounded with a strong 3.74 mark. Aside from a six-week stint on the injured list, Hendricks had a strong year. It was a fairly easy call for the Cubs to exercise a $16.5MM team option for 2024. While it didn’t always seem as if things were trending in that direction, Hendricks’ platform showing was impressive enough that the option was a straightforward decision by the time it was up for consideration.
There’s still plenty of time for him to turn things around, but this clearly isn’t the opening the former ERA champ and the Cubs were expecting. Hendricks’ starts have come against the Rangers, Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks. They’re all above-average to excellent offensive teams, so it isn’t as if the Cubs have faced an easy set of opponents. Still, this is the worst four-start stretch of Hendricks’ 11-year MLB career in terms of run prevention. He has typically been a slow starter — his career ERA in March/April is more than a run and a half higher than in any other month — but this is an especially rough few weeks.
It’s difficult to know how much emphasis to place on any player’s first couple weeks of the season, especially ones at an extreme. The Cubs surely don’t want to overrate what amounts to a 17-inning sample. Hendricks is a particularly tough pitcher to evaluate because he’s an anomaly in the modern game. He had an excellent seven-year run to start his career behind top-of-the-scale command and an elite changeup to overcome well below-average velocity. Over the past three-plus years, his results have been less consistent.
The velocity and movement profile on Hendricks’ pitches this year isn’t much different than where it was in 2023. His changeup isn’t missing quite as many bats, but his game has never been built on swing-and-miss totals. The far bigger issue has been the damage Hendricks is allowing on contact. Beyond the homers, opponents are hitting almost .400 on balls in play — nearly .100 points higher than the league average.
Both the home runs and BABIP will come down to some extent. Hendricks certainly isn’t going to continue running an ERA above 12.00. Yet it also seems that last year’s sub-4.00 mark was probably anomalous. Hendricks surrendered just 0.85 home runs per nine last season but was in the 1.6 HR/9 range in both 2021 and ’22. Maintaining last year’s success keeping the ball in the yard was always going to be a tough task. Even if his home run rate settles back into the 2021-22 range, Hendricks would project for an ERA approaching 5.00.
That could eventually force the coaching staff to consider moving him out of the rotation. They’re not at that point yet. The Cubs list Hendricks as their probable starter for Sunday’s series finale with the Marlins. That’ll be by far the weakest lineup against which he’s gotten the ball this year. Manager Craig Counsell indicated yesterday the Cubs weren’t considering skipping that start.
“I think frankly, all of our pitching stuff is we’ve got to get through every day,” Counsell told reporters (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). “And then we’re in a tough enough spot, right? We’ve just got to get through the day and then reevaluate it and make an assessment going forward. We’re going to need Kyle’s innings in his next start.”
That could lead the Cubs to proceed with a six-man rotation for the time being. Jameson Taillon has been reinstated from his season-opening injured list stint and will take the ball Friday. He slots back into a starting staff that also includes Shota Imanaga and Jordan Wicks. If the Cubs wanted to go back to a five-man rotation, swingman Javier Assad and rookie Ben Brown would be the straightforward candidates for a move to the bullpen or (in Brown’s case) back to Triple-A Iowa. Yet they’ve each pitched well in the early going. Assad has allowed only four runs through 16 2/3 innings. Brown has allowed eight runs — six of them in a rocky first start — over his first 16 1/3 frames with a solid 23.4% strikeout rate.
The Cubs have been without ace Justin Steele since he left his Opening Day start with a hamstring strain. He’s coming off a recent 25-pitch bullpen session but won’t be back in an MLB game until sometime next month. That could buy the coaching staff time to stick with a six-man rotation or temporarily bump Brown out of the mix. If everyone else is healthy by the time Steele comes back, they might face a tougher decision on whether to continue giving Hendricks the ball every fifth day.
Chicago is midway through a stretch of 10 consecutive game days. They’re off next Monday, their only reprieve before they play 19 in a row through May 8. After his start against Miami, Hendricks would be in line for matchups against the Red Sox and Brewers if the Cubs stay on a six-man trajectory.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Red Sox To Select Cam Booser
Left-hander Cam Booser is joining the Red Sox in Pittsburgh tomorrow, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. The lefty will be added to the club’s 40-man roster, per Andrew Parker of Beyond the Monster, who adds that lefty Joe Jacques will be optioned to open a spot on the active roster. The Sox will also need to open a 40-man roster spot but could do so easily by transferring Trevor Story to the 60-day injured list, since he will miss the rest of the year due to shoulder surgery.
Booser will crack a major league roster for the first time at an usually old age, as his 32nd birthday is just a few weeks away. It’s a testament to his determination that he will make it to the show after all these years, as he made his minor league debut over a decade ago, playing Rookie ball in the Twins’ system in 2013. After a few years in the minors, he topped out at High-A in 2017, not pitching in any official capacity for the next few years.
He resurfaced with the Chicago Dogs, an indy ball team, in 2021. He tossed 23 1/3 innings with a 1.93 earned run average for the Dogs that year and showed enough promise to get a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks for 2022. He tossed 25 innings in Double-A but struggled with a 6.48 ERA and got released. He then joined the Lancaster Barnstormers, another indy ball club, and tossed 11 2/3 innings with a 4.63 ERA.
He was able to secure himself a minor league contract with the Red Sox for 2023 and made 48 Triple-A appearances last year. He had a 4.99 ERA in his 57 2/3 innings, striking out 26.7% of batters faced while walking 9.7%. He received an invite to major league camp in 2024 and seemed to impress manager Álex Cora, as the skipper mentioned him to reporters last month, highlighting his high-90s fastball and ability to throw offspeed pitches in the zone.
It was around that same time during Spring Training that Ian Browne of MLB.com profiled the lefty. Booser apparently retired at the end of the 2017 season following several injuries, a marijuana suspension and “self-admitted attitude problems.” He then turned his attention to a carpentry career but stumbled back onto the mound by doing lessons with kids and rediscovering his past form.
“After the kiddos would leave, I would stay in the dark and throw into a net by myself for a couple of months. And through that process, I found out that my arm felt better than it ever had with that time off. One day, I got on the mound and my fastball was pretty good, 97-98 [mph]. So we figured, ‘Let’s give it a shot.’ I met with a trainer back home the next day and went out there to [independent] ball in 2021, and it’s been a great journey ever since.”
Booser didn’t break camp with the Sox but reported to Triple-A and has thrown 6 2/3 innings over four appearances this year, allowing two earned runs while striking out 15 opponents against just one walk. Though he obviously didn’t take the traditional path, Booser has found his way to the big leagues in amazingly unique fashion. The Sox have Brennan Bernardino and Joely Rodríguez in their bullpen but Booser will give them a third southpaw option.