The Opener

As the early days of MLB’s offseason continue, here are three things for MLBTR readers to look out for today…

1. Cy Young Awards to be announced:

MLB’s awards season continues this evening as the results of Cy Young award voting in both leagues are set to be announced at 5pm CT tonight on MLB Network. In the American League, Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole is widely considered the favorite for the award after leading the AL in ERA (2.63), Games Started (33), Innings Pitched (209), ERA+ (165), and WHIP (0.981). Twins veteran Sonny Gray, who posted a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings across 32 starts this season, and Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman, who led the AL with 237 strikeouts to go along with his 3.16 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 185 innings of work over 31 starts, are the other finalists in the AL.

The race for the NL award is somewhat murkier. Left-hander Blake Snell, who pitched for the Padres in 2023 before hitting the open market earlier this month, is considered by most to be the favorite for the award. Snell led the majors with an excellent 2.25 ERA in 180 innings of work across 32 starts, with an excellent 182 ERA+ that also led the majors. That said, Snell’s eye-popping 13.3% walk rate and ten starts where he failed to record an out in the sixth inning are both blemishes that could dissuade some voters. Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen, who helped lead Arizona to the World Series this year with a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP across 34 starts and 210 innings of work, and Giants righty Logan Webb, who led the majors with 216 innings of work across 33 starts and posted an NL-best 3.6% walk rate, are the other finalists in the NL this year.

2. Will Quantrill reach free agency?

The Guardians designated right-hander Cal Quantrill for assignment yesterday rather than pay him a raise in arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a 2024 salary of $6.6MM. It was a somewhat unexpected move; while Quantrill struggled badly in 2023 amid shoulder issues, he combined for a 3.16 ERA and 4.10 FIP across 336 innings of work across the 2021-22 campaigns while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen. Now the Guardians will have a final opportunity to attempt to work out a trade involving Quantrill or expose him to outright waivers.

That being said, it’s possible the widespread need for starting pitching around the league and the increase to the price of pitching in recent years could spur additional interest in Quantrill’s services. It would hardly be a shock if a club preferred two years of team control over Quantrill at an arbitration-level rate to the pricier commitments bounce-back starters like Noah Syndergaard (one year, $13MM) and Sean Manaea (two years, $25MM) received on the open market last offseason.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

As we prepare for one of the first major deadlines of the offseason, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Rule 5 draft protection deadline:

This evening marks one of several deadlines in the early part of the offseason: the deadline for protecting prospects from next month’s Rule 5 draft. Though the Rule 5 draft won’t take place until the Winter Meetings, today at 5pm CT is the deadline by which teams must add prospects they wish to protect from the draft to their 40-man rosters. The deadline typically sparks plenty of movement as teams look to clear space on their 40-man rosters for prospects in need of protections, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggests that this year will be no different, reporting that trade talks are picking up all around baseball in advance of today’s deadline.

2. Qualifying Offer deadline:

The Rule 5 draft protection deadline isn’t the only deadline scheduled for today, however. At 3pm CT this afternoon, the seven players who received qualifying offers earlier in the offseason will have to decide whether to accept the one-year, $20.35MM offer or reject it and test the open market. All seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, and Sonny Gray — are expected to decline the QO and test free agency. Players that do so will attached to draft pick compensation, providing their previous team with an outgoing draft pick should they sign elsewhere while forcing their new club to give up draft capital and international bonus pool space. The details on what teams stand to lose or gain from the signing of qualified free agents were covered by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk last month.

3. Manager of the Year announced:

Awards season around MLB continues at 5pm CT this evening with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards set to be announced. In the AL, Bruce Bochy of the Rangers, Kevin Cash of the Rays, and Brandon Hyde of the Orioles are the three finalists for the award. Cash skippered the Rays to a 99-win season that saw them win their first 13 games of the season, tying the modern record, while Hyde and Bochy both guided their clubs to a postseason appearance despite the Orioles and Rangers both entering the season expected to be little more than fringe contenders. It would be Hyde’s first time winning the award, while Cash has won the award twice previously. Bochy, meanwhile, has never won in the AL but won in the NL with the Padres back in 1996.

Meanwhile, the NL features a relatively unusual bit of drama; alongside Brian Snitker of the Braves and Skip Schumaker of the Marlins, Craig Counsell is nominated for the award for his work with the Brewers this season despite having departed the organization for the division rival Cubs last week. For all his accolades as one of the league’s finest managers, Counsell has never won a Manager of the Year award. Schumaker, of course, hasn’t either as a rookie skipper who just concluded his first season in the role. Snitker, on the other hand, won the award previously in 2018. His work with the Braves that year led him to finish just ahead of Counsell, who was the runner-up for the award.

Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for on Monday…

1. Rookie of the Year winners announced:

Rookie of the Year winners in each league will be announced tonight at 6pm ET. The American League’s three finalists in 2023 include Orioles third baseman/shortstop Gunnar Henderson, Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee and Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas. Henderson, 22, smacked 28 home runs and posted a .255/.325/.489 batting line with 10 steals, 100 runs scored and 82 knocked in. Bibee seized a spot in the Cleveland rotation, making 25 starts and posting a 2.98 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate over the life of 142 innings. Casas shook off a slow start to finish out the year at .263/.367/.490 with 24 home runs, 21 doubles, 66 runs and 65 RBIs.

In the National League, D-backs outfielder Corbin Carroll, Dodgers outfielder James Outman and Mets righty Kodai Senga are finalists. Carroll erupted with a .285/.362/.506 batting line, 25 home runs and 54 steals. He became the first rookie in MLB history to deliver a 20-50 season. Outman slashed .248/.353/.437 with 23 homers, 16 steals and standout glovework Senga’s 29 starts of 2.98 ERA ball and impressive 29.1% strikeout rate over 166 1/3 innings firmly cemented his role in the Mets’ rotation and more than justified their original five-year, $75MM investment in the former NPB star.

2. Korean Series ends:

The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization won their first Korean Series title in 29 years over the weekend, bringing an end to the 2023 KBO season. That’ll be significant for MLB fans, as with the KBO season now in the books, it won’t be long before we begin to see traction on the international free agent front. The general expectation is that star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee will be posted for MLB teams, likely some time after Thanksgiving. There could well be other Korean-born players interested in a move to MLB, and there will certainly be plenty of former big leaguers eyeing a return to North American ball.

Former first-round pick and Nationals top prospect Erick Fedde likely headlines that list after pitching to a flat 2.00 ERA with 29.5% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate and 70% ground-ball rate in 180 1/3 innings for the NC Dinos. The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty profiled Fedde’s changes to his pitch repertoire and to his offseason program back in September. On the flipside of things, expect several fringe big leaguers — as Fedde was during his time in MLB — to make the jump to the KBO as they seek both notable seven-figure paydays and perhaps changes of scenery that could improve their stock and pave the road back to a big league roster.

3. MLBTR Free Agent Prediction contest picks due TONIGHT:

This year’s MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest is open through 11pm CT tonight. If you haven’t made your picks yet or want to make some changes to the slate you submitted, you can do so before that time! The contest is free to enter, and the top three finishers will receive cash prizes of $500, $300 and $100, respectively. The top 15 finishers will also receive a free yearlong subscription to our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which in addition to ad-free viewing also comes with access to weekly email content, a weekly subscriber-only chat, access to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. Once the contest is closed, we’ll launch a leaderboard so you can see how you’re faring both against other entrants and the MLBTR staff! You can read more about the contest here and click here to enter/edit your picks!

As the early days of the offseason continue, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on…

1. When will Yamamoto be posted?

Earlier this week, the Orix Buffaloes announced shortly after their loss in Game 7 of the Japan Series to the Hanshin Tigers that they have approved the posting of star right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the club’s approval secured, the final step before Yamamoto is officially a free agent available to MLB clubs is for him to be officially posted, after which point he will have a 45-day window during which he can sign with any club in the majors. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi recently suggested that Yamamoto’s posting window is expected to open in the near future, likely sometime next week.

Yamamoto, of course, is perhaps the most exciting pitching free agent on the market. Set to hit free agency at just 25 years old, he’s dominated NPB hitters to the tune of a 1.42 ERA in 557 2/3 innings of work the past three seasons. While scouts and teams are often uncertain about how foreign stars will adjust to stateside ball, Yamamoto is something of an exception to that; he’s widely regarded as a potentially ace-caliber arm and a clear front of the rotation starter for an MLB club. That combination of youth and talent secured Yamamoto the #3 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top-50 free agents list, where we projected him for a nine-year, $225MM deal.

2. MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest:

This year’s MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest will remain open through Monday evening at 11pm CT. If you haven’t made your picks yet but still want to enter, you can take some time this weekend to do so! The contest is free to enter, and the top three finishers will receive cash prizes of $500, $300 and $100, respectively. The top 15 finishers will also receive a free yearlong subscription to our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package, which in addition to ad-free viewing also comes with access to weekly email content, a weekly subscriber-only chat, access to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. Once the contest is closed, we’ll launch a leaderboard so you can see how you’re faring both against other entrants and the MLBTR staff! You can read more about the contest here and click here to enter your picks!

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the offseason ramping up, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1pm CT to tackle questions about free agency, trades and more. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and to read a transcript after the chat is complete.

As the offseason continues to kick into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Silver Sluggers to be announced:

The Silver Slugger award winners for the 2023 season are set to be announced this evening. Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez, and Astros DH Yordan Alvarez will all have the opportunity to win the award in back-to-back seasons after winning the award in 2022 and being finalists this season. In the National League, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado, Phillies shortstop Trea Turner, Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts, Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber, Padres outfielder Juan Soto, and Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto will each have the chance to repeat as winners. The awards will be announced at 5pm CT this evening on MLB Network.

2. How will Harper’s position change impact the Phillies?

Phillies superstar Bryce Harper is set to take over first base for the club on a regular basis, per comments from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski yesterday, with Schwarber set to continue in his second-half role as the club’s everyday DH in 2024. The confirmation regarding how the Phillies will fill out their lineup card next year raises questions about how the club will look to supplement the lineup headed into next season. Not only does the decision seemingly close the door on a reunion with longtime first baseman Rhys Hoskins, but it leaves both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas likely to play on an everyday basis next year barring an addition to the club’s outfield mix. Should the Phillies look to add a bat to the outfield corners, the class is headlined by Teoscar Hernandez, with the likes of Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario, and Adam Duvall among the other options available.

3. Which managerial seat will be filled next?

The Angels filled their managerial vacancy yesterday by hiring Ron Washington to replace Phil Nevin in the dugout. It’ll be the first time Washington, 71, has managed since departing Texas back in 2014. With the Angels now having joined the Giants, Mets, Guardians, and Cubs in hiring new managers this offseason, three vacancies remain around baseball in Houston, San Diego, and Milwaukee.

All three remaining vacancies are fairly recent; Dusty Baker retired only after the Astros lost Game 7 of the ALCS last month, while the Padres and Brewers are replacing managers Bob Melvin and Craig Counsell who were hired away by their division rival Giants and Cubs, respectively. The Padres appear to have made the most progress in their search, with internal candidates Ryan Flaherty and Mike Shildt widely seen as favorites for the role. That being said, the club is reportedly pondering a run at recently-dismissed Cubs manager David Ross for the role. If the Padres delay their decision to meet with and consider Ross, could the Astros or Brewers wind up the next team off the board?

As the opening act of MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. GM Meetings continue:

The GM Meetings in Arizona are now in full swing, with the Yankees, Mariners, and Giants among the teams to address their offseason needs and plans yesterday. The meetings are set to continue today as GMs and agents around the game continue laying groundwork for future trades and free agent deals. While the GM Meetings are usually not a time of year where teams are already looking to make moves, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated yesterday that the trade market is more advanced than usual this time of year, particularly on the position player side of things. Morosi suggests that this could be due to the weaker positional free agent class this offseason.

2. How will the Twins balance their budget?

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey discussed the club’s plans regarding payroll for 2024 yesterday, and the update was a disappointing one for fans in Minnesota. Falvey suggested that the club’s payroll next season will likely be lower than their 2023 mark, with current indications that the club hopes to pare down payroll to a figure in the $125MM-$140MM range. The payroll in Minnesota already projects to be in that range, with RosterResource estimating a $125MM payroll for 2024 as things stand.

With that being said, the payroll constraints could make replacing or retaining the club’s outgoing free agents difficult as right-handers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda as well as center fielder Michael A. Taylor are depart for free agency, among others. One way the club could free up payroll space is by dealing infielder Jorge Polanco, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last month, or outfielder Max Kepler. Both players had their options picked up by the Twins for $10.5MM and $10MM, respectively, and come from areas of significant depth for the Twins, who feature a glut of young position players all around the diamond.

3. Could the Angels be nearing a managerial decision?

The Angels are reportedly making progress in their efforts to replace Phil Nevin as manager, with recent indications suggesting the club could finalize their decision by the end of the week. Recently-dismissed Mets manager Buck Showalter is known to be among the finalists for the position, which is hardly a surprise given the club has seemed to prefer an experienced manager for the role throughout their search. That trend continued yesterday as reports indicated Braves third base coach Ron Washington, who led the Rangers to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011, has interviewed for the position. The club has also looked into less experienced options, including Benji Gil and Gary DiSarcina.

On the heels of a hectic day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. GM Meetings begin:

MLB’s annual General Manager Meetings are set to begin today, though many executives were already in Scottsdale, AZ yesterday. White Sox GM Chris Getz, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, and Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix all are headed to the meetings as heads of a baseball operations department for the first time in their respective careers, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand indicates that a review of the 2023 season’s rule changes and discussion of the postseason format are both issues that figure to be addressed over the coming days. While major free agent signings and trades are fairly rare at this point in the offseason calendar, the meetings serve as a first opportunity for agents and clubs to begin discussion of free agents and for front offices to gauge rival teams’ early interests on the trade market.

2. Yankees pressers scheduled:

Yankees leadership will be addressing the media today, with Greg Joyce of the New York Post among those to relay that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is set to meet with the media, followed by GM Brian Cashman later in the day. The pair’s comments will mark the first public words from Yankees brass after the club failed to make the postseason for the first time since 2016. The club finished just 82-80, their worst record since 1992, despite making a splash this past offseason by not only retaining reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge on a $360MM pact but also landing left-hander Carlos Rodon on a $162MM deal. With Judge, Rodon, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gerrit Cole all under contract for at least the next four seasons and set to combine for $128MM annually, Cashman’s front office faces the difficult task of looking to improve the club for 2024 despite already having four deals in excess of $100MM on the books.

3. Counsell fallout:

The Cubs shocked the baseball world yesterday by hiring longtime Brewers manager Craig Counsell away from their division rivals yesterday, beating out the perceived frontrunners in Milwaukee, Queens, and Cleveland for Counsell’s services. The Mets and Guardians pivoted away from Counsell fairly quickly, hiring Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza and Mariners bullpen coach Stephen Vogt to take over in the dugout respectively, but plenty of questions remain in the wake of Chicago’s shocking move. Beyond the obvious question of who the Brewers will install to replace Counsell in the Milwaukee dugout, it’s fair to wonder what’s next for David Ross, who the Cubs dismissed in order to hire Counsell. Ross is already drawing interest from the Padres in their managerial search, while Houston and Anaheim are both also still looking for a manager. Will Ross, who was a finalist for the NL Manager of the Year award during his rookie season as manager in 2020, find a new seat in this offseason’s game of managerial musical chairs?

With the offseason on the verge of kicking into high gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Option decisions come due:

Today is the deadline for option decisions around the league. Many of the most significant option decisions were resolved over the weekend, including veteran righty Marcus Stroman’s decision to hit the open market and the White Sox’s decision to decline their option on shortstop Tim Anderson. That being said, there are a handful of option decisions that have been left to the final day before the deadline. Some of them seem fairly certain, such as the likelihood that shortstop Javier Baez will opt into the final four years and $98MM remaining on his contract with the Tigers, but other decisions provide more intrigue. Giants outfielder Michael Conforto, Tigers catcher Carson Kelly, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green are among the players whose option decisions still appear to be up in the air headed into the day.

2. Qualifying Offer decisions:

By 4pm CT this afternoon, teams will have to decide whether or not to extend pending free agents a one-year, $20.325MM qualifying offer. If a player receives a QO, he’ll have until November 14 to decide whether to accept or reject the offer. If rejected, the player’s former team will receive draft pick compensation in the event the player signs anywhere else this offseason. Players traded mid-season such as Lucas Giolito and Jeimer Candelario are ineligible to receive a QO, as are players who have already been extended the QO previously such as Marcus Stroman and Justin Turner. Many QO decisions are fairly cut-and-dry; it’s all but certain, for example, that the Angels will extend Shohei Ohtani a qualifying offer, which he in turn is all but certain to reject. That being said, some decisions aren’t so certain, such as that of the Dodgers regarding veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently previewed today’s pitching QO decisions, while MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed today’s decisions regarding position players.

3. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents:

With the 2023-24 class of free agents on the verge of being mostly set in stone this afternoon, we here at MLBTR are excited to unveil our annual Top 50 Free Agents list later today. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Joc Pederson would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have separate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the events of an unpredictable offseason.

With the offseason ramping up, here are three things we’re monitoring heading into the weekend…

1. Parade in Arlington:

The first World Series title in Rangers’ history will be celebrated with a parade taking place today in Arlington. It’s set to kick off at 12:15 pm Central time, but local reporting indicates that some fans started lining up last night. If you’re planning on heading down, don’t delay.

2. Mets’ managerial vacancy:

Reporting from yesterday indicates that the Mets are narrowing the field in their managerial search with a hire perhaps being made soon. Craig Counsell, Carlos Mendoza and Mark Kotsay are thought to still be in the running at this point. Could the club have a new skipper by the time Monday rolls around?

3. Free agent pool growing:

The pool of available free agents grew by huge numbers yesterday as players and clubs began making decisions on contract options and opt-outs. Outfielder Jorge Soler, infielder/outfielder Whit Merrifield and right-hander Seth Lugo were some of the bigger names to hit the open market, but there were dozens of others. November 6 is the deadline for these decisions and for qualifying offers, with plenty of choices still to be made in the coming days.

With the World Series now over, here are three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball today…

1. Rangers win it all:

The Rangers finally have their first World Series title, defeating the Diamondbacks last night. Now it’s time to celebrate, with a parade already planned for Friday. After that, the attention will turn to the offseason. After being extremely aggressive in recent years, will they take their foot off the gas or continue pressing forward?

2. Diamondbacks Outlook and chat:

It was a great season for the Diamondbacks, who made it all the way to the final showdown on the heels of three straight losing campaigns. How can they build on this year and reload for 2024? MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series will head to Arizona later today, with a chat to follow at 2:00 pm Central. Click here to ask a question in advance.

3. The offseason begins:

With the 2023 season now in the can, it’s time for the 2023-24 offseason! There will be plenty of rumors, signings and trades, with much attention focused on the most unique free agent of all time. Eligible players can become free agents today but won’t be able to sign with a new club for five days. They can sign with their 2023 club, however, as Joe Jiménez has already done. There’s also a five-day window for decisions on contract options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. Keep checking MLBTR for all the latest!