Cubs righty Adbert Alzolay has been on the injured list since May 13 due to a flexor strain, and it seems a return in the near future isn’t likely. Manager Craig Counsell told the team’s beat yesterday that Alzolay, who recently received a second opinion on the injury, will be shut down entirely for at least two more weeks (X link via Meaghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). A lengthier shutdown is possible, but he’ll be reevaluated in 14 days to gauge any progress. For the time being, surgery is not a consideration.
The 29-year-old Alzolay was easily the Cubs’ top reliever in 2023, pacing the team with 22 saves and leading their qualified relievers with a 2.67 earned run average. The former top prospect punched out 26.5% of his opponents against a sharp 5.1% walk rate. Alzolay got out to a much rockier start in 2024, logging a 4.67 ERA in 17 1/3 innings as his strikeout and walk rates swung dramatically in the wrong direction (17.3% and 8%, respectively).
Given those struggles and what increasingly looks like a lengthy stay on the injured list, it’s fair to presume Alzolay wasn’t pitching at full strength prior to his IL placement. His sinker lost a full mile per hour from last year (95.3 mph to 94.3 mph), and his four-seamer is down just over a half mile as well, checking in at 94.7 mph in ’24 after sitting 95.3 mph in ’23, per Statcast.
It’s tough for any team to lose its top reliever, of course, but it’s particularly troublesome for a Cubs bullpen that has ranked in the bottom half of MLB in most categories. Chicago relievers are 20th in baseball with a 4.15 ERA, and fielding-independent metrics grade them similarly (17th in FIP at 3.92, 15th in SIERA at 3.63). The bullpen does collectively have the eighth-best strikeout rate of any relief corps in MLB (24.4%) … but also the eighth-highest walk rate (10.3%).
Further complicating matters is the fact that righty Julian Merryweather, one of the team’s top setup men and top strikeout arms last season, is already on the 60-day injured list due to a stress fracture in his ribcage. Counsell indicated this week that Merryweather has been cleared to resume throwing but also noted that his IL stint will exceed the 60-day minimum (X link via Ryan Herrera of CHGO Sports). That’ll push him into mid-June in a best-case scenario. However, with Merryweather only just starting a throwing program and needing to build toward facing live hitters before an eventual minor league rehab assignment, it’s feasible his IL stint could stretch to late June or even into July.
With Alzolay and Merryweather shelved, Hector Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. are the only two members of the Cubs’ bullpen with any late-inning experience of note in the majors. Neris signed a one-year, $9MM deal over the winter and currently sports a 2.50 ERA but also a career-worst 17% walk rate. Leiter has been excellent, continuing to make good on the jackpot the Cubs hit in minor league free agency a few years back. Beyond that pairing, things get far murkier.
The only other member of the Cubs’ bullpen with even two years of MLB service is Kyle Hendricks, who was just dropped to a relief role after struggling immensely in the rotation. Righties Hayden Wesneski and Jose Cuas are the next-most “senior” members of the unit. Each entered the season with just over a year of service time, and both have been optioned at least once this season. The Cubs are hopeful that recently reacquired Tyson Miller can fill a late-inning role, and they’re giving looks to homegrown rookies like Porter Hodge and Luke Little as well. But the bullpen as a whole is quite light on established arms, exacerbating the impact of losing two of last year’s top relievers.
The Cubs still find themselves just 1.5 games back of the Brewers from the division lead. They’re 3.5 games up on a surging Cardinals club, with Pittsburgh only a half-game behind St. Louis. The Reds sit eight games back of the division lead — a notable but also hardly insurmountable deficit with so much of the season yet to play out. Given Chicago’s active offseason — bringing in Shota Imanaga, re-signing Cody Bellinger, signing Neris, trading for Michael Busch — the front office will likely be looking to add to the roster so long as the team remains within striking distance in what’s currently a wide-open division. Every postseason hopeful tends to be on the lookout for relief pitching come deadline season, but the Cubs’ need is shaping up to be more acute than most contenders.
Lack of good bullpen arms lack of power hitters and a very overrated farm system leaves the Cubs in a bad situation.. I will be amazed if they make the playoffs anytime soon
Probably October.
With the lack of decent NL teams (currently, only 5 teams are better than .500) — the bar is low.
The Cubs are 4 games above .500 with a ton going wrong for them. This team will be in playoffs this season and likely will be the division winners.
Counsell is doing what Ross couldn’t, which is preventing the prolonged losing streaks which is keeping them near the top of the division. Eventually, Swanson and Happ will start hitting and then the team will get hot. Not too many teams would have survived what the Cubs have so far.
Yes, dras—need to let the back of the baseball card normalize a little bit. Tuesday was the first time in over five weeks that Seiya, Belli, Dansby, and Nico were all in the lineup together.
I’m not overly optimistic on Merryweather or Alzolay coming back any time soon, and certainly not at last year’s level—-so the need of Wicks, Smyly, Palencia, Almonte are really paramount. They’ve gone about 18 deep with the staff (not overrated farm system), but that number really does shorten if Merryweather and Alzolay are completely off the radar.
Unlike some Cubs’ fans, I definitely was a big Adbert supporter. Great guy, excellent pitcher. But my guess is this injury is serious and he will not be adding value or maybe even pitching anymore this season. Leiter is better than Neris but while Hector gets saves he will stay as closer no matter how much luck is involved. Shota will come down to Earth but Justin will get better. Easy to see the Cubs, a just slightly better than average team, making the playoffs. If the Cubs are on a playoff pace, they can add a reliever at the trade deadline.
Agree Manny—not exactly good news that after almost two weeks they get a second opinion and shut him down, it’s probably not good and in reality he probably never bounced all the way back from the shutdown last September. All kinds of tweaks and additions possible with 100+ games left. No doubt still a lot of roster movement possible.
Goodness, I wish someone would explain to Counsell how to utilize a bullpen.
Was it just me or did Counsell just go look Jed, You’re making me play with your pet on my staff so I’m going to put him in a game and prove how bad he is? Because otherwise in a 1-0 game you bring in Leiter Jr. and Neris to try and hold the fort. Or better yet, Why did he take out Little? He might as well have waived a White Flag instead of the stupid W sign .
If Brown and Little both learn to be more aggressive in the zone the pen should be fine without Alzolay for a little while.
The biggest problem with the Cubs bullpen is they walk the world. Cuas for some unknown reason thinks he is effective down in the zone and Little keeps trying to pitch up where he has zero control. Hopefully Hendricks does well in relief, he always has been cool in high pressure situations, could be a solid high leverage guy if used properly.
Teams cycle through relievers like crazy anyway and I’m sure they will add arms throughout the season. What’s crazy is how good Imanga has been
If Hodge turns out to be anything close to his single inning debut, it could be a huge asset.
If he turns out anything close to the debut, they better start making the statue now. This is some of the biggest ninth inning, 9-2 ball game optimism in a long, long time. That said, Luis Vazquez is in for a rough career. He did look good, though…agreeing with you there.
I love Hodge’s potential. Like I said he has Major League stuf just like Little, Palencia and Brown. If Brown can pitch just like he has he could be the closer. Hodge is just as likely to walk 3 straight guys in his next appearance as strike them out. Who knows, Maybe he loves the big stage and everything clicks. But I’m guessing he’ll have some growing pains along the way. The idiot who said the Farm System is over rated is either a Sox fan with a name like that and jealous or a troll. The Farm System has delivered at every turn and will do so for a while but eventually the Pro ready arms and players will be gone unless some people get healthy soon. Cubs are in a stretch of like 40 games in 42 days. Brutal. Manfred sucks.
So Vasquez strikes out in his first AB and he’s over. Nice to see you’re a man of infinite patience. Sweet.
Come on uncle, you know me better than that. I’m the one always trying to get you out of the moment and into the big picture. I’m the back of the baseball card guy here.
My Vazquez comment is obviously the anti–Porter Hodge comment that started the thread. “if Hodge turns out…” For every ying there is a yang….thus, if Hodge is what he was last night, so must be Vazquez.
You were very correct in saying that based on his history Hodge just might walk three guys today….
Hang with em—it’s a long season. Chat with you soon.
What was refreshing was to see a young Cubs P come up and just say, Here’s my best stuff see if you can hit and not try to nibble constantly. A 9-2 deficit makes that possible of course though. Hopefully he sees that the score really doesn’t matter that it’s all in the plan. That should be all the young guys plan and adjust accordingly if that doesn’t work.
That was a great low pressure spot for Hodge to make his debut. Now let’s see how he does when the score is close.
Porter Hodge looked very impressive last night. Struck out Ozuna, Albies and Olson on 10 pitches in his ML debut.
Jed will make a move or two in effort to tighten that bullpen-Eventually. It won’t be Mason Miller due to the asking price. But that offense is abysmal. Far too often there are 3-4 automatic outs in that lineup. Swanson, Happ the catchers need to start hitting. Calling out Happ. He’s typically deadpan to begin with. But this season he looks like he prefers to be anywhere else but on the baseball field. Please keep Miles Mastrobouni away from the ML team.
How can a team with 5 hitters in a line up hitting under .220 and bad pitching sustain any kind of lasting momentum? Over rated at 3rd, LF, 1b, horrid pen and no catching. IF the farm system is all that what do they have to lose by bringing up young players? This team currently has no superstar position players. I just don’t see it getting any better.
Could you at least try to hide your hater just a little bit better? What a ridiculous take on that team.
“Over rated farm system”
The Cubs graduated PCA, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Michael Busch off their top prospect board and still have a major league leading 7 top 100 prospects.
He went from cubs permanent closer to cubs permanent loser