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Archives for September 2024

Latest On Anthony Rizzo

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TODAY: The Yankees didn’t place Rizzo on the injured list, instead optioning Scott Effross to Triple-A to call up Rice.  Boone described Rizzo’s chances of playing in the ALDS as a “long shot,” in speaking with Hoch and other reporters today.

SEPT 28: Manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) following today’s loss to the Pirates that first baseman Anthony Rizzo sustained two fractured fingers when he was struck by a pitch from Pittsburgh lefty Ryan Borucki. Hoch later added that, per Boone, the first baseman had actually fractured both his fourth and fifth fingers on his right hand. Rizzo exited the game following the incident, and it’s not yet clear when he’ll be able to return to the diamond. As noted by Hoch, Boone did not rule Rizzo out for the club’s upcoming postseason push.

“We’ll see what we have as the week moves forward,” Boone said. “It doesn’t totally rule him out. It’s a pain tolerance thing.”

It’s the latest injury-related setback for Rizzo in what has become a series of frustrating injuries during his tenure with the Yankees. After an eight-season stretch in Chicago where Rizzo was rarely injured, appearing in 94% of the Cubs’ regular season games from 2013 to his trade to the Bronx in 2021, the veteran first baseman has been far less available throughout his tenure with the Yankees. While he managed 130 games in his first full season with the club in 2022, his past two years have been marred with post-concussion syndrome and a fractured forearm that both set him down for multiple months, leaving him to appear in less than 60% of the club’s contests over the past two years.

Those injury issues have coincided with a downturn in performance for the 35-year-old, who this year is slashing just .227/.298/.334 through 91 games. It’s his worst showing in a season since the 49-game cup of coffee with San Diego that kicked off his lengthy big league career, and a far cry from the production the Yankees were surely hoping to get from him when they signed him to a two-year deal that guaranteed him $40MM prior to the 2023 season. With that being said, even losing a diminished version of Rizzo is still a blow to the Yankees’ lineup headed into the postseason.

After all, the club got lackluster production from a combination of Ben Rice and DJ LeMahieu at first base in Rizzo’s absence; only the Rockies posted a lower wRC+ at first base than the 76 the Yankees put up in Rizzo’s absence, and the club’s -1.1 fWAR at the position put them ahead of only the Astros among all AL clubs. It should also be noted that while Rizzo has hardly been the middle-of-the-lineup force he was earlier in his career since returning to the lineup on September 1, he has hit better overall with a .247/.345/.315 slash line in 84 plate appearances. That’s good for a wRC+ more than 15 points higher than the figures put up by Rice and LeMahieu’s combined efforts in his absence.

If Rizzo is healthy enough to take the field for the Yankees when the ALDS begins on October 5, it seems likely that he’ll be the best option the club has available at first base. Failing that, however, Hoch notes that Boone did confirm that Rice would be an option for the club’s postseason roster. A 25-year-old rookie, Rice is a bat-first catcher that has begun to move over to first base in recent years in part to accommodate the rapid advance of his offense. The youngster has slashed a sensational .294/.428/.661 in 30 games at the Triple-A level this year after posting similarly excellent numbers in 97 career games at the Double-A level, but he’s hit just .174/.269/.356 in a 49-game cup of coffee over the summer.

That figure includes a somewhat stronger .184/.265/.395 slash line in 132 trips to the plate against righties at the major league level. That could make him an excellent choice for a lefty-mashing platoon partner, but with LeMahieu on the IL amid a career-worst season that saw him hit just .164/.235/.206 against southpaws there aren’t many good options for that role. One possibility would be utility man Jon Berti, who sports a decent .250/.328/.384 career slash line against lefty pitching, but it would be a bold choice for the club to put Berti at first base with zero experience at the position in the middle of the playoffs, even considering his exceptional positional versatility. Switch-hitter Oswaldo Cabrera has some experience at first base and even replaced Rizzo there following his exit today, but he’s hit just .206/.251/.306 against southpaws to this point in his career.

Vinnie Pasquantino Ahead Of Schedule, Could Return For Wild Card Series

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Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino saw his regular season come to an end a month ago when he suffered a broken right thumb. It was a devastating blow to Kansas City’s offense, and the initial timeline provided at the time left him set to miss the next six-to-eight weeks, not only ending his regular season but likely keeping him out for most if not all of the postseason. Flash forward to today, however, and things are looking far more optimistic. As noted by Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star, Pasquantino is under consideration to be activated from the injured list to join the club’s roster for the AL Wild Card series, which begins on Tuesday.

The move would be something of a shock just four weeks after his injury, but Thompson notes that the 26-year-old has resumed taking batting practice and even faced live pitching yesterday. In an interview during the team’s broadcast of last night’s game, GM J.J. Picollo noted that Pasquantino “felt good” after the session but that the club will need to evaluate him today before deciding whether to activate him or have him continue rehabbing in hopes of impacting the club deeper into the playoffs, should they make it that far. Per MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, the club plans for Pasquantino to face live pitching again tomorrow before they make a decision on whether or not to activate him for Tuesday’s Wild Card Series.

If Pasquantino is truly healthy enough to return early, it would be a major boost to Kansas City’s offense. In 131 games with the Royals this year, the 26 year old has hit a respectable .262/.315/.446 with 19 homers in 554 trips to the plate and a 108 wRC+. That makes him just one of four Royals hitters with a better than league average wRC+ alongside second baseman Michael Massey, veteran backstop Salvador Perez, and MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. For a Royals club that has primarily made it to the postseason off the back of an excellent starting rotation (as well as the offensive heroics of Witt), adding another reliable bat to the lineup could be a game changer for the Royals as they head into their first postseason series since winning the 2015 World Series nearly a decade ago.

While the first baseman could return to action for the series, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be playing first base. Thompson notes that the club activated Massey back in June before he was ready to return defensively, instead using him exclusively as a DH and pinch hitter for two weeks before eventually being eased back into defensive duties at the keystone. Should the Royals follow a similar path with Pasquantino, it’s possible he wouldn’t retake his role at first base until late in the playoffs, if at all.

That would leave Yuli Gurriel, who has slashed .260/.361/.320 (96 wRC+) across 17 games with the Royals this year, in place as the club’s first baseman, while Pasquantino is installed as the club’s everyday DH during the postseason. In recent weeks, the Royals haven’t had a set DH and have instead used that spot in the lineup to rest players but Pasquantino’s return would seem likely to cost Freddy Fermin playing time by causing the club to start Perez behind the plate more frequently. That said, it’s also possible that Perez could be used as the club’s regular first baseman, leaving Fermin behind the plate and pushing Gurriel to the bench.

Astros Select Ryan Gusto

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The Astros announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Gusto. Gusto will make his big league debut in today’s regular season finale, starting this afternoon’s game against the Guardians. To make room for Gusto on the 40-man and active rosters, outfielder Ben Gamel was transferred to the 60-day IL while right-hander Shawn Dubin was optioned to the minor leagues.

Gusto, 25, was Houston’s 11th-round pick in the 2019 draft. He’s enjoyed something of a breakout over the past two seasons, as he impressed in 61 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level last year with a 2.93 ERA and a 24.9% strikeout rate in his first taste of action at the level. That earned him a promotion to the Triple-A level to start the 2024 season, and while he struggled badly in his first taste of Pacific Coast League action this year (8.03 ERA in his first two months) he’s turned things around a big way since then. In 108 innings of work since the start of June, Gusto has dominated opponents with a 2.08 ERA and 23.2% strikeout rate while walking just 6.4% of opponents.

Now, Gusto will get the opportunity to show off what he can do against big league hitters. With both Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi ticketed for free agency this winter, it’s easy to imagine Gusto working his way into consideration for the club’s rotation mix next year as one of the club’s few upper-level arms who have not yet been integrated into the big league rotation. The club figures to have Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti as rotation options headed into next year with plenty of other players due back from the IL sometime next season but Gusto could be an important depth piece for the club come Spring Training, particularly if the club doesn’t make additions to the rotation over the winter.

As for Gamel, the move to place the 32-year-old on the 60-day IL is largely procedural. The outfielder was already on the shelf due to a fractured fibula and considered likely to miss the entire postseason, though today’s roster move confirms that he won’t play again this year. Gamel hit a decent .247/.384/.333 with the Mets and Astros this year and figures to enter free agency this winter as an interesting bench option for clubs in need of outfield depth.

Orioles Designate Tucker Davidson For Assignment

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that they’ve designated left-hander Tucker Davidson for assignment. Right-hander Colin Selby was recalled to the big league roster in Davidson’s place, and the club’s 40-man roster now stands at 39.

Davidson, 28, came to the Orioles last year when the club claimed him off waivers from the Royals. He was promptly outrighted off the 40-man roster later in the offseason and remained with the club in the minor leagues throughout 2024, putting up a decent 3.89 ERA in 115 2/3 innings of work during that time while swinging between Norfolk’s rotation and bullpen.

Those results are generally much better than the ones he’s garnered in the majors throughout his career. The lefty surrendered a 5.11 ERA in 37 innings of work for the Braves from his debut in 2020 until his departure at the 2022 trade deadline, when he was traded to Anaheim as part of the trade that brought Raisel Iglesias to Atlanta. He spent parts of two seasons with the Angels and struggled badly. In 68 1/3 innings of work spread between 18 relief appearances and eight starts, Davidson was shelled to the tune of a 6.72 ERA with a 4.93 FIP. That led the Angels to part ways with the lefty, and he finished the 2023 campaign with the Royals. He posted a 5.03 ERA in Kansas City before the aforementioned waiver claim that brought him to Baltimore last offseason.

Going forward, the Orioles will have one week to pass Davidson through waivers. While he’s likely to clear waivers, he’ll become a minor league free agent this winter if not added back to the 40-man roster before free agency opens in November. Should he reach the open market, Davidson could garner some attention as a minor league depth option from the left side thanks to his ability to pitch both out of the bullpen and in the starting rotation.

Report: Cardinals Open To Offers On Sonny Gray

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After a second consecutive season where they’ll miss the playoffs, the Cardinals organization appears to be in flux. With a presser scheduled for early in this coming week, rumors have swirled that the club is set to make some notable organizational changes to kick off their offseason. Those changes figure to be headlined by former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom stepping into a larger role with the club’s baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports this morning that this offseason’s changes could carry over to the big league roster as well. Per Nightengale, the Cardinals are willing to listen to offers on veteran right-hander Sonny Gray just one year after signing him to a hefty three-year, $75MM deal as the team hopes to cut payroll entering next year.

The notion of St. Louis looking to trim down its payroll isn’t exactly a shocking one. Cardinals attendance dropped below 3 million this year for the first time since 2003 (ignoring the pandemic-impacted seasons of 2020 and 2021), leaving the club with less gate revenue than expected. Meanwhile, the TV revenue side of things isn’t much rosier as the Cardinals are one of the teams impacted by the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. While MLB and the Players’ Association agreed back in July to redirect funds towards clubs that have lost TV revenue amid Diamond’s troubles, it would hardly be a surprise if the club’s budgets going forward were impacted by this revenue uncertainty.

Even if the overall baseball operations budget isn’t reduced, it’s still possible to imagine the club’s player payroll dropping heading into 2025. After all, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported on the state of the Cardinals organization earlier this week and described a situation where the club has begun to prioritize major league payroll over investing in the organization’s development infrastructure, resulting in cuts to key areas of player development in order to sustain an ever-growing payroll at the big league level. With changes to the front office seemingly on the horizon, it’s certainly plausible that the club could pare back its payroll in order to invest in a more robust player development apparatus.

That possibility of a lower big league payroll next year leads back to Gray, who will see his back-loaded salary rise from $10MM this year to $25MM in 2025. While RosterResource at Fangraphs suggests St. Louis has just $108MM in guaranteed commitments for next year, that doesn’t include an increasingly expensive arbitration class including key players like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Ryan Helsley. Nor does it include the possibility of the club deciding to exercise its club option on one or both of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, each of which are $12MM options with $1MM buyouts. With Gray’s $15MM raise this year and those possible additions to the payroll, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals may need to trade salary away in order to address the roster’s needs this winter even after shedding Paul Goldschmidt’s $26MM salary when he reaches free agency in November.

With that being said, losing Gray would be a major blow to St. Louis’s hopes of contending next year. The veteran right-hander had something of a down season in his first year with the Cardinals, posting a 3.84 ERA that’s just 9% better than league average by ERA+. Even so, Gray’s 3.12 FIP was nothing short of excellent and he remains just one year removed from a dominant season with the Twins that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young award voting behind Gerrit Cole. The 34-year-old hurler would likely be an improvement to just about any club’s rotation next year, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals themselves finding an adequate replacement for the right-hander internally coming off a season where the club’s starters collective posted a 4.36 ERA that ranks 21st in the majors and a 4.08 FIP that ranks 15th even with Gray in the fold.

What’s more, the hefty salary that could lead the Cardinals to consider dealing Gray could prove to be an anchor that makes him surprisingly difficult to trade. Between his salary for the next two years and a $5MM buyout on his option for 2027, Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum for any club to take on, and it could be especially problematic for clubs at or near the luxury tax. Upon being traded, contracts are recalculated for luxury tax purposes based on the remaining dollars and years on the deal, meaning that an acquiring team would be accepting a hit of nearly $32.5MM to their luxury tax ledger over the next two years by trading for Gray. Even if the Cardinals can find a trade partner willing to stomach that cost, Gray’s full no-trade clause could further complicate things by allowing him to block any deal if so chooses.

That’s not to say a deal would be completely impossible, of course. Plenty of players with no-trade clauses and even larger contracts than Gray have been dealt over the years, and if the Cardinals are sufficiently motivated to get a deal done there will surely be suitors for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber. Nightengale suggests that the Reds, for whom Gray pitched from 2019-21 and made his second career trip to the All-Star game, could have interest in a reunion if the veteran is made available this winter.

The Reds have had a disappointing season in 2024 but nonetheless sport an exciting young core of talent led by right-hander Hunter Greene and shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Adding Gray as an experienced, front-of-the-rotation veteran would be a huge boost for a Cincinnati rotation that appears likely to lose Nick Martinez to free agency this year but still has a number of interesting young arms behind Greene such as Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Graham Ashcraft. Any of those young arms would surely be attractive to St. Louis as a potential return for Gray’s services given their own rotation needs, though it seems likely that the Cardinals would need to retain some money in order to facilitate such a deal given the Reds’ typically low payrolls and Gray’s large contract.

Twins Select Randy Dobnak

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The Twins announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Randy Dobnak. In a corresponding move, right-hander Diego Castillo was designated for assignment.

Dobnak, 29, signed an ill-fated extension with the Twins prior to the 2021 season on the heels of a 2020 campaign where he showed promise as a potential mid-rotation starter with a 4.05 ERA and 3.96 FIP through ten starts. After a strong rookie campaign in 2019, that gave Dobnak a career 3.12 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 75 innings of work in the majors at the time of the deal. Unfortunately, things quickly went off the rails for the right-hander as he surrendered a ghastly 7.64 ERA in 50 2/3 innings of work during the first year of his extension. Those lackluster results led to the club outrighting him off the 40-man roster in September of 2022.

Since then, Dobnak has remained in the Twins organization while primarily pitching at Triple-A. He’s done fairly well for himself in the minors this year, with a 4.25 ERA in 133 1/3 innings of work that earned him another look at the big league level. That stint back in the majors earlier this year didn’t go over very well, however, as Dobnak surrendered a 5.87 ERA in 7 2/3 frames before being shipped back to the minors. He’ll now finish the season in the Twins bullpen and on the 40-man roster. He remains under contract with the club through the end of the 2025 season, and does not yet have enough service time to reject an outright assignment without also forfeiting the remainder of his contract.

Making room for Dobnak on the club’s 40-man roster is Castillo, who signed with Minnesota on a minor league deal over the offseason and was first selected to the roster at the end of May. Since then, he’s posted a solid enough 2.70 ERA in 10 innings of work but hasn’t been able to stick on the Twins roster due to shaky peripherals, including more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six) in the majors. When at Triple-A with the Twins this year, Castillo has struggled badly with a 5.59 ERA in 40 appearances.

Despite those deep struggles, however, it’s not impossible to imagine the right-hander continuing to draw attention from clubs as a minor league depth option this winter. After all, Castillo excelled with the Rays and Mariners earlier in his career with a 3.12 ERA and 3.69 FIP in 250 appearances from 2018 to 2022. Any club that believes they can unlock that form in Castillo will surely have interest in bringing him into the fold and seeing what he has next spring. Of course, before Castillo can officially reach free agency he’ll need to clear waivers sometime in the next week.

Justin Turner Plans To Continue Playing In 2025

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Mariners infielder Justin Turner’s 40th birthday is just around the corner this November, but that’s not stopping the veteran from planning to keep going next year. The pending free agent told reporters, including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer, after Seattle’s win over the A’s last night that he wants to continue his playing career in 2025:

“100 percent. I still feel good, still feel like I have a lot to contribute.”  Turner said, as relayed by Kramer. “And I absolutely love spending time around these guys and the conversations and questions and helping guys.”

Even as he enters his 40s, it’s not necessarily a shock that Turner would plan to continue playing. After all, the veteran remains quite productive on the field. In 138 games split between Toronto and Seattle this year, the veteran has slashed .258/.353/.380 with a wRC+ of 115. While Turner’s 11 home runs and .122 isolated slugging percentage are both the lowest he’s posted in a full season since becoming a regular with the Dodgers back in 2015, his overall production remains exactly in line with what he produced for the Red Sox last year and not far off from the 123 wRC+ he posted in his final year as a Dodger.

Turner has largely been restricted to first base an DH since departing Los Angeles, with just six total appearances at the hot corner this year after logging 17 appearances between second and third base with the Red Sox last year. That dwindling versatility will surely restrict his market this winter, but there should still be plenty of suitors for Turner even in a strictly 1B/DH role. After all, just nine teams got a 115 wRC+ or higher out of first base this year, while 11 clubs matched or exceeded that figure at DH. Only the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Diamondbacks got better numbers than Turner provided out of both positions this year, and Arizona figures to lose both Christian Walker and Joc Pederson to free agency this winter.

Of course, it’s unlikely that Turner would really garner interest from every club he would be an on-paper upgrade for, but it’s still easy to imagine him as a fit for a number of teams. The Astros could benefit from a right-handed complement to Jon Singleton at first base and someone capable of plugging in at DH on days where Yordan Alvarez plays the outfield, for one example. Meanwhile, the Royals, Nationals, Tigers, and Pirates are all young up-and-coming teams who not only got below average production from either first base or DH this year but could also benefit from adding a well-respected veteran like Turner as a mentor figure for young hitters.

Turner has also signed one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, which could make him a particularly attractive candidate for a team like the Tigers that has a possible regular in Spencer Torkelson but may not want to rely on the 25-year-old finally taking a long-anticipated step forward after making the playoffs for the first time since 2014 this year. That flexibility could also benefit a team like the Yankees that has a potential heir to first base in Ben Rice at Triple-A but is unlikely to fully commit to a youngster with just 49 big league games under his belt.

A return to Seattle also can’t be ruled out. As Kramer noted last night, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated to reporters yesterday that the club’s payroll is likely to increase this winter. While Dipoto cautioned that much of that increase figures to be accounted for with the increasing arbitration costs of a large class of key players like Randy Arozarena, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Cal Raleigh, it’s not hard to imagine the club being able to fit a one-year deal for Turner into their budget if they decide they’d prefer to use him in the first base/DH mix alongside Luke Raley rather than rely on youngster Tyler Locklear.

Ha-Seong Kim To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) this evening that shortstop Ha-Seong Kim’s season is over. Kim later told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The shortstop has been on the IL for over a month due to inflammation in his shoulder, and Shildt revealed yesterday that Kim might ultimately need to go under the knife to repair the labrum in his shoulder.

It’s a huge blow for a Padres club that has leaned heavily on the 28-year-old since he enjoyed a breakout season back in 2022. That year, Kim stepped in to replace troubled star Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop amid a lost season caused by off-the-field injuries and a PED suspension. He excelled in the role, hitting an above-average .251/.325/.383 (105 wRC+) in 150 games while playing strong defense at shortstop. Kim was pushed back to second base by the addition of Xander Bogaerts last year but took yet another step forward with the bat while playing slick defense across not only the keystone but also shortstop and third base as needed.

Last year, Kim slashed .260/.351/.398 with a wRC+ of 110 while swiping 38 bags in 47 attempts. That overall package was enough to earn Kim his first career Gold Glove award and even some downballot MVP votes. Coming off that strong season and a lackluster season defensively from Bogaerts, the Padres elected to switch the two entering this year to return Kim to shortstop. That seemingly set him up for what could be his third straight career year, but things didn’t play out quite that way as the infielder took a slight step back at the plate. In 121 games for the Padres this year, Kim posted a wRC+ of 101 while stealing 22 bases in 27 attempts. That down season has been further exacerbated by his shoulder woes, which have kept him from participating in the stretch run and now will remove him from San Diego’s postseason plans entirely.

Looking ahead for the Padres, it seems likely that the club will now stick with Bogaerts at shortstop headed into the postseason, as they’ve done since moving him back to the position earlier this month in response to Kim’s injury. It’s been a down season for Bogaerts overall as he’s been limited to just 110 games so far by injuries while posting a 94 wRC+ that’s his worst since 2014, but he’s managed to turn things around since returning from the injured list back in July with a solid .295/.336/.430 slash line across 259 plate appearances that’s good for a 116 wRC+. That’s opened second base up for regular starts from Jake Cronenworth, leaving first base available for a timeshare between Donovan Solano and Luis Arraez, the latter of whom also factors into the club’s DH mix alongside David Peralta on days he isn’t playing first base.

As for Kim himself, the shortstop will now head into free agency facing a new layer of uncertainty. While he’s still all but certain to decline his $8MM mutual option for next season in favor of a $2MM buyout, it’s possible that teams could be more hesitant to offer the versatile infielder a sizable multi-year deal this winter due to concerns about how his shoulder issues could impact him on both sides of the ball going forward. Kim appeared likely to be a consensus top infield option in free agency this winter behind Alex Bregman and Willy Adames, making it easy to imagine him landing a significant contract. Between his down 2024 season at the plate and now his impending surgery, however, Kim’s future seems a bit murkier than it did even a few days ago.

Red Sox Notes: Refsnyder, Whitlock, Pivetta

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Back in August, Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder seemed uncertain about whether he wanted to continue his playing career in 2025 or begin working towards his post-playing goal of moving into a front office role somewhere in the sport. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported this evening, however, that Refsnyder now appears to have made up his mind to continue playing in 2025.

“I’ll be 34 in spring training. I could see myself playing for a couple more years honestly, if the situation is right,” Refsnyder said, as relayed by Cotillo. “Especially if I’m here.”

Refsnyder has made his desire to remain in Boston abundantly clear, and it seems all but certain his wish will be granted at least for next season. The Red Sox hold a $2MM club option of the 33-year-old for next year, a bargain price considering his excellent production with the club this season. In 307 trips to the plate across 93 games played this year, Refsnyder has slashed an excellent .283/.359/.471 (130 wRC+) in his part time role as a backup outfielder and platoon bat against left-handed pitching. Overall, Refsnyder has posted a solid .278/.367/.427 slash line (121 wRC+) with 18 homers and 10 steals in 727 plate appearances since he first donned a Red Sox uniform back in 2022.

Refsnyder’s likely return will place him in the midst of what is sure to be a very crowded outfield mix next season. While Tyler O’Neill figures to become a free agent this winter, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu both appear poised to return to the club. Meanwhile, Ceddanne Rafaela has split time between the outfield and infield this year but is best suited to playing center field, where he excels defensively. That leaves the club with a full outfield before even considering the fact that top prospect Roman Anthony is banging on the door to the majors and figures to be ready for big league action as soon as early 2025, and it’s even possible that the club could look to re-sign O’Neill or a similarly capable right-handed slugger this winter. The DH offers little help in breaking up the logjam in Boston either due to the presence of Masataka Yoshida, who remains under contract through the end of the 2027 season.

Given the glut of outfield talent available to the Red Sox for the moment, it would hardly be a shock to see the club pursue a trade this winter, perhaps leveraging that outfield depth in order to bolster the club’s pitching staff. The rotation in Boston has been quite good with a 3.77 ERA that ranks top five in the majors this year, but a bullpen that posted a lackluster 4.44 ERA this year and figures to lose both Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin in free agency is an obvious place for potential improvement. With that being said, it’s also possible the bullpen could get some internal reinforcements headed into next year.

Right-hander Garrett Whitlock underwent an internal brace surgery on his right elbow back in May and has been working his way back to the mound ever since, with Cotillo among those to note that he threw a baseball for the first time since going under the knife recently. As Whitlock works his way back in hopes of a healthier 2025 season, Cotillo notes that after years of both the righty and the Red Sox believing he was a long-term rotation piece for the club, Whitlock is now more focused on staying healthy.

“Honestly, I’ve told them, whatever can keep me healthy (is the best role),” Whitlock said yesterday, as relayed by Cotillo. “That’s where I’m at. We’re going to dive in with medical and see where that goes.”

If Boston brass and Whitlock believe that a move to the bullpen could help keep the righty healthier going forward, that would add a potential high-leverage arm to the club’s mix that could help them to make up for the impending losses of Jansen and Martin. The right-hander sports a strong 3.39 ERA overall for his career, but that figure plummets to a sparkling 2.65 when looking only at his 132 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen. Combined with his 28.1% career strikeout rate out of the bullpen, it’s easy to imagine Whitlock becoming one of the game’s most fearsome relievers if he fully committed to the role.

A move to the bullpen for Whitlock would leave the club with a hole in the rotation, however, and that would only be further exacerbated by the impending departure of veteran righty Nick Pivetta. It’s been a solid year for the 31-year-old hurler, as he’s posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.06 FIP in 145 2/3 innings of work that should make him an attractive option for clubs in need of help towards the back of their rotation this winter. That’s a description that fits the Red Sox, who currently have only Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello penciled into their rotation. Lucas Giolito figures to return from elbow surgery at some point next year, and the club has solid depth options like Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell available as well, but there’s plenty of room in the club’s starting mix another addition.

Even so, it’s unclear if a return to Boston is in the cards for Pivetta next year. The right-hander told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe recently that there have been no talks between he and the front office about extending their relationship beyond this season, though he did express an openness to returning to Boston next year. With that being said, after a disappointing season that’s seen the club finish in the vicinity of .500, it’s possible that the club could look to improve its rotation by signing a more impactful free agent than Pivetta. Former Red Sox hurler Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Sean Manaea are among the mid-rotation arms that figure to be available this winter who would likely represent an upgrade over Pivetta for Boston.

Dipoto: No Plans To Deal From Mariners Rotation

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Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto spoke to reporters (including Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times) prior to the club’s game against the Athletics today about the upcoming offseason and the club’s plans after coming up just short in the postseason race for the second season in a row. Of note is the fact that Dipoto told reporters that they club has no intention of dealing from its rotation this winter in order to upgrade other areas of the roster, with Divish quoting Dipoto as having referred to the notion as “Plan Z” for the club as they head into the offseason.

For all of Seattle’s faults this year, the rotation can’t be considered among them. Seattle starters led the league with a collective 3.39 ERA this year, ranked third with a 3.63 FIP, racked up the most strikeouts with 879, and with 931 2/3 innings of work provided more volume than any other MLB rotation this year. The team’s top quintet of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, and Bryan Woo will finish the year having made 149 of the club’s 162 starts, with just one start made by a pitcher other than the aforementioned group and sixth starter Emerson Hancock.

It’s a remarkable level of both dominance and durability from the club’s top starters that entirely justified their decision to part ways with Marco Gonzales and Robbie Ray over the offseason, sacrificing rotation depth in order to increase flexibility to address other areas of the roster. Even so, it’s easy to understand why the club wouldn’t be interested in returning to such a strategy this winter. It would be reckless for Seattle to assume its top starters will again be able to take the mound for more than 90% of the club’s starts. If anything, the club is lacking in depth options for the rotation beside Hancock, with Jhonathan Diaz standing as the only other starter on the club’s 40-man roster.

Fortunately, it seems the club also expects less turnover on the positional side this winter, when compared to last year’s overhaul of the lineup. The 2023-24 offseason saw the Mariners part ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic, and Mike Ford with Ty France following them out the door during the 2024 season. After spending much of last winter looking to replace Kelenic and Hernandez’s production in the outfield, Jude relays that Dipoto believes the club’s outfield mix to be fairly set headed into 2025 with Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles as the club’s starting options.

It’s hard to argue with that assessment. Despite a second straight season where he started off sluggishly, Rodriguez is still the club’s $200MM+ player who provides a four-win floor when healthy with his stellar center field defense and offense that ranges from solid to spectacular. Meanwhile, Arozarena was the club’s top acquisition over the summer with a 120 wRC+ since joining the Mariners. Robles being assured of a starting job with Seattle next year would’ve been a shock a few months ago, but he’s looked like a different player than the one who struggled to live up to the hype as a former top prospect with the Nationals since joining the Mariners: In 75 games with his new club, he’s slashed .327/.395/.464 with 29 stolen bases in 30 attempts as the regular leadoff hitter in Seattle.

With that being said, Dipoto did leave the door open to acquisitions in other areas of the roster. As Jude notes, Dipoto suggested that the Mariners’ strong finish to the season (they’ve gone 19-13 since firing manager Scott Servais in late August) leads him to believe the club isn’t far from returning to the postseason, but they’ll explore upgrades to their infield mix this winter nonetheless. That should be fairly doable for a club that struggled to put up even league average numbers at second base, third base, and shortstop this year while relying on a position change for Luke Raley and a deadline rental in Justin Turner to shore up first base.

Between the steady production of Cal Raleigh and the looming presence of top prospect Harry Ford at Double-A, it’s hard to imagine the club looking to upgrade behind the plate this winter. It’s also easy to imagine the club staying internal at first base with a platoon of Raley and prospect Tyler Locklear, though that would likely be a step backwards from the production Turner provided down the stretch against lefties. Dylan Moore remains a solid utility option for the club off the bench, and it would be something of a surprise to see the club move on from shortstop J.P. Crawford with two guaranteed years left on his contract.

That leaves second and third base as the easiest places for the club to upgrade, with Jorge Polanco’s $12MM club option unlikely to be picked up and Rojas fairly easy to move into a part-time role. Given the club’s general avoidance of significant contracts for position players in free agency under Dipoto, it’s hard to imagine them going big for a top infield option like Alex Bregman, or Willy Adames. Even so, there could be upgrades to be found in lower tiers of free agency or on the trade market. Brandon Lowe of the Rays and Nico Hoerner of the Cubs are among the infield options who could see their names come up in trade talks this winter, while Gleyber Torres or Ha-Seong Kim could be available to the Mariners in free agency, though they’d likely have to go outside of their typical comfort zone to land either player.

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