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Exploring A Potential Pablo Lopez Trade

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It's been a quiet offseason for the Twins as the front office faces payroll constraints for a second straight offseason. Minnesota's signing of Carlos Correa and extension for Pablo Lopez in the 2022-23 offseason -- among other moves -- pushed the club's payroll up into the $150-160MM range. Both deals came just months after owner Jim Pohlad took a step back as his nephew, Joe Pohlad, took on a far more prominent role. That ownership shuffle, coupled with the long-term nature of those deals, made it look like there'd be a lasting bump in payroll.

Clearly, that hasn't been the case. Amid uncertainty regarding the team's television broadcast rights, ownership slashed payroll back down to the $130MM range for the 2024 season. The Twins largely sat out the 2023-24 offseason, with their largest moves coming via the trade market (dealing Jorge Polanco to Seattle) and in the bargain aisle of free agency (a $5.25MM deal for Carlos Santana being their most expensive). At the end of the 2024 season, Joe Pohlad announced his intent to explore a potential sale of the team.

That's led to even more uncertainty and inflexibility with the budget this offseason, as evidenced by the Twins' complete lack of activity. RosterResource projects the Twins' payroll at about $142MM. Ownership would like that back into the $130MM range again. It's expected that at some point they'll trade righty Chris Paddack, whose $7.5MM salary looks quite affordable when juxtaposed with the aggressive market for starters this winter. They'll shop Christian Vazquez but would need to eat some of his $10MM salary. A trade of their excellent utilityman, Willi Castro, could also be explored.

Speculation regarding the possibility of larger-scale deals was inevitable, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that the team views Correa, Lopez and Byron Buxton as "key" players to the team's 2025 outlook. Falvey has emphasized that the Twins are intent on contending in 2025, even as it looks like he'll be forced to find ways to trim player payroll before making a single addition.

A Correa trade always seemed far-fetched. He's owed $128MM over the next four years and has a full no-trade clause. Buxton also has full no-trade protection. However, the recent report from ESPN's Jeff Passan that the Twins have at least listened to offers on Lopez presents a far more compelling thought exercise. Lopez's contract is teeming with surplus value in a way that isn't true -- or isn't as true, anyway -- of the Twins' other most expensive players.

Trading Lopez would ignite swift backlash from an already frustrated and put-off fanbase. At the same time, the huge return and the potential avenues for restructuring the team in the wake of such a surprising deal are compelling enough that it's understandable if the Twins perform due diligence to at least see what the market might bear.

Let's dive into an admittedly very hypothetical look at why a Lopez trade could actually appeal to the Twins, who could be involved, and how the Twins could proceed (and possibly improve) in the aftermath.

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The Largest Contracts In MLB History

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Below is our list of the 24 largest contracts in MLB history.  Please note that if a player was already under contract and signed an extension, only the new money counts.

1. Juan Soto, Mets: 15 years, $765MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2024

2. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: 10 years, $700MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2023.  97.1% of the total is deferred and will be paid from 2034-43.  For luxury tax purposes, MLB calculated the value of the contract to be $460,767,685.  The MLBPA’s calculation is $437,830,563.

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays: 14 years, $500MM.  Extension signed April 2025

4. Mookie Betts, Dodgers: 12 years, $365MM.  Extension signed July 2020.  Present-day value due to deferrals: $306,657,882

t-5. Mike Trout, Angels: 10 years, $360MM.  Extension signed March 2019

t-5.  Aaron Judge, Yankees: 9 years, $360MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2022

7.  Francisco Lindor, Mets: 10 years, $341MM.  Extension signed March 2021.  Present-day value due to deferrals: $332,394,479

8.  Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres: 14 years, $340MM.  Extension signed February 2021

9.  Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330MM.  Free agent contract signed March 2019

t-10.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers: 12 years, $325MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2023

t-10.  Corey Seager, Rangers: 10 years, $325MM.  Free agent contract signed November 2021

t-10. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325MM.  Extension signed November 2014

13. Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 9 years, $324MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2019

14.  Rafael Devers, Red Sox: 10 years, $313.5MM.  Extension signed January 2023

t-15.  Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300MM.  Free agent contract signed February 2019

t-15.  Trea Turner, Phillies: 11 years, $300MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2022

17.  Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: 11 years, $288,777,777.  Extension signed February 2024

18.  Xander Bogaerts, Padres: 11 years, $280MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2022

19.  Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2007

20.  Alex Rodriguez, Rangers: 10 years, $252MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2000

21. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 8 years, $248MM.  Extension signed March 2014

t-22. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: 7 years, $245MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2019.  Present-day value due to deferrals: $228.9MM

t-22.  Anthony Rendon, Angels: 7 years, $245MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2019

t-24.  Albert Pujols, Angels: 10 years, $240MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2011

t-24.  Robinson Cano, Mariners: 10 years, $240MM.  Free agent contract signed December 2013

The Largest MLB Contracts By AAV

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Below is our list of the 32 largest contracts in MLB history by average annual value (AAV). Please note that if a player was already under contract and signed an extension, only the new money counts.  For our list of the largest contracts in total dollars, click here.

1.  Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: $70,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2023.  97.1% of the total is deferred from 2034-43.  As a result, for luxury tax purposes, MLB calculated the AAV at $46.06MM.  The MLBPA calculated the AAV at $43,783,056.30.

2.  Juan Soto, Mets: $51,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2024.  Given the lack of deferred money, this should be treated as the true AAV record.

3.  Max Scherzer, Mets: $43,333,333.33.  Free agent contract signed November 2021

4.  Justin Verlander, Mets: $43,330,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2022

5.  Zack Wheeler, Phillies: $42,000,000.  Extension signed March 2024

t-6.  Aaron Judge, Yankees: $40,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2022

t-6. Alex Bregman, Red Sox: $40,000,000.  Free agent contract signed February 2025.  Considering deferrals, the AAV is considered $31.7MM for CBT purposes.

8.  Jacob deGrom, Rangers: $37,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2022

9.  Blake Snell, Dodgers: $36,400,000.  Free agent contract signed November 2024.  Considering deferrals, the MLBPA calculated the AAV as $31,735,498

t-10.  Mike Trout, Angels: $36,000,000.  Extension signed March 2019

t-10.  Gerrit Cole, Yankees: $36,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2019

12.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays: $35,714,285.71.  Extension signed April 2025

13.  Carlos Correa, Twins: $35,100,000.  Free agent contract signed March 2022

t-14.  Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: $35,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2019

t-14.  Anthony Rendon, Angels: $35,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2019

t-14.  Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks: $35,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2024

17.  Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: $34,416,667.  Free agent contract signed December 2015

18.  Francisco Lindor, Mets: $34.1MM.  Extension signed March 2021

19.  Trevor Bauer, Dodgers: $34,000,000.  Free agent contract signed February 2021

20.  Nolan Arenado, Rockies: $33,428,571.  Extension signed February 2019

21.  Carlos Correa, Twins: $33,333,333.33.  Free agent contract signed January 2023

22.  Justin Verlander, Astros: $33,000,000.  Extension signed March 2019

23.  Corey Seager, Rangers: $32,500,000.  Free agent contract signed November 2021

24.  Rafael Devers, Red Sox: $31,350,000.  Extension signed January 2023

t-25.  Blake Snell, Giants: $31,000,000.  Free agent contract signed March 2024.  Considering deferrals, the MLBPA calculated the AAV as $29,698,347

t-25.  Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: $31,000,000.  Extension signed March 2014

t-25.  David Price, Red Sox: $31,000,000.  Free agent contract signed December 2015

t-25.  Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: $31,000,000.  Extension signed November 2018

29.  Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: $30,714,286.  Extension signed January 2014

30.  Mookie Betts, Dodgers: $30,416,667.  Extension signed July 2020

31.  Jacob deGrom, Mets: $30,125,000.  Extension signed March 2019

t-32.  Manny Machado, Padres: $30,000,000.  Free agent contract signed February 2019

t-32.  Max Scherzer, Nationals: $30,000,000.  Free agent contract signed January 2015.  Counted as $28,689,376 for purposes of luxury tax.

Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team

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Here’s our list of the largest contract each of the 30 MLB teams has ever signed. Each contract is linked to its MLBTR post, with the exception of those that predate the site’s existence.  The amounts denote the amount of new money guaranteed to the player, which is why they might differ from what you’ve seen in public reports.

2024-25 MLB Free Agents

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The following players are currently eligible for free agency.  Each player’s 2025 age is in parentheses.  Generally, our cutoff for this list is 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors in 2024.

Updated 4-4-25

Catchers

Yan Gomes (37)
Yasmani Grandal (36)

First Basemen

Jose Abreu (38)
Anthony Rizzo (35)
Jared Walsh (31)

Second Basemen

Whit Merrifield (36)

Shortstops

None

Third Basemen

Danny Mendick (31)
Miguel Sano (32)
Cole Tucker (28)

Left Fielders

David Dahl (31)
Adam Duvall (36)
Robbie Grossman (35)
Whit Merrifield (36)

Center Fielders

Aaron Hicks (35)

Right Fielders

Adam Duvall (36)
Avisail Garcia (34)
Whit Merrifield (36)
David Peralta (37)

Designated Hitters

Matt Carpenter (39)
Robbie Grossman (35)
J.D. Martinez (37)

Starting Pitchers

Ty Blach (34)
Aaron Brooks (35)
Anthony DeSclafani (35)
Domingo German (32)
Marco Gonzales (33)
Jordan Lyles (34)
Sixto Sanchez (26)
Spencer Turnbull (32)
Alex Wood (34)

Right-Handed Relievers

Chase Anderson (37)
Daniel Bard (40)
Adam Cimber (34)
Jose Cisnero (36)
Domingo German (32)
Brent Honeywell Jr. (30)
Joe Kelly (37)
Keynan Middleton (31)
David Robertson (40)
Touki Toussaint (29)
Spencer Turnbull (32)

Left-Handed Relievers

Ty Blach (34)
Brooks Raley (37)
Will Smith (35)
Drew Smyly (36)

Rangers Interested In Chris Martin

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As the Rangers continue to rebuild their bullpen, their list of targets includes a local product, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that the team has interest in Arlington native Chris Martin.  The veteran reliever said in September that he is “95%” certain that 2025 will be his last season, and since Martin is thought to be prioritizing teams closer to his home in Texas, a return to the Rangers would make a lot of logical sense for both sides.

Though Martin turns 39 in June and is likely entering his farewell season, his recent results indicate that the right-hander has plenty left in the tank.  Martin posted a 3.45 ERA in 44 1/3 innings for the Red Sox last season, with a 2.43 SIERA that is more reflective his performance level.  His ability to generate grounders (46.3% groundball rate) was undermined by Boston’s poor infield defense, leading to a .353 BABIP that fueled Martin’s misleading ERA.

The rest of his metrics ranged from above-average to elite, including a 27.8% strikeout rate, strong soft-contact numbers, and Martin’s typically brilliant control.  Long one of baseball’s best control pitchers, Martin’s 1.7% walk rate in 2024 was the lowest of any hurler with at least 40 innings pitched.  Perhaps the only question mark clouding Martin last year was his health, as he had three different trips to the 15-day injured list due to anxiety, right elbow inflammation, and an issue with his left shoulder.

Martin is a late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until age 28 when he was pitching for the Rockies in 2014.  After posting a 6.19 ERA in 36 1/3 innings with the Rockies and Yankees in 2014-15, he went to Japan and posted outstanding numbers over the next two seasons with the Nippon-Ham Fighters.

This success led to a two-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers during the 2016-17 offseason, as Martin made his return to North American baseball pitching for his hometown team.  The stint in Texas saw Martin show flashes of his future self, and his success early in the 2019 season led Atlanta to swing a deal for him at the 2019 trade deadline.  Over five years later, Martin could now be considering a return to Arlington with a World Series ring (with the 2021 Braves) and $34MM more in career earnings in tow, as well as an earned reputation as a steady high-leverage reliever.

Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young told Grant and other reporters that “the bullpen is the primary focus” for the team in the remainder of the offseason and during the season, and Texas has gotten a start on that work already his winter.  Robert Garcia, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong, and Hoby Milner have all been acquired to date, but a more proven late-innings reliever like Martin would greatly stabilize things.  Kirby Yates and A.J. Minter are two of the other still-unsigned relievers linked to the Rangers on the rumor mill this offseason.

Ehire Adrianza Announces Retirement

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Veteran utilityman Ehire Adrianza has decided to retire after 12 Major League seasons.  The 35-year-old Adrianza made the official announcement on his Instagram page, thanking the many people who contributed to his success.

“This journey has been incredibly challenging, filled with ups and downs, but every step along the way has been a blessing that I cherish immensely,” Adrianza said.  “Since my childhood, I dreamed of the possibility of winning a World Series, a goal that once seemed so distant and almost unattainable.  However, thanks to my effort, dedication, and the unwavering support of each one of you, that dream has become a reality.  I still find it hard to believe that I have had the honor of playing more than a decade in the Major Leagues.  I never imagined I would achieve so much, and it’s astonishing to reflect on this experience.”

Adrianza has been part of six different organizations over his career, and he saw big league action in the form of 624 games with the Giants, Twins, Nationals, Braves, and Angels from 2013-24.  His long career saw Adrianza play roles on World Series-winning teams in San Francisco (in 2014) and Atlanta (2021), with Adrianza getting 10 pinch-hit at-bats during the Braves’ postseason run.

Hitting .237/.307/.352 in 1578 career plate appearances, Adrianza was able to consistently latch onto MLB rosters due to his ability to play almost anywhere on the diamond.  He made at least 16 career starts at six different positions (all four infield positions plus the two corner outfield slots) while also making a few cameos as a center fielder and pitcher.  The Outs Above Average and UZR/150 metrics gave Adrianza plus grades over his career at shortstop and third base, his two most frequent positions.

Adrianza was usually a part-timer or bench player who was only pressed into more regular duty in the event of an injury, though this happened often enough that he was a useful player to have on hand.  His 114 games with Minnesota in 2018 was a career high, followed by his 109 games with the Braves in 2021.  In the latter season, his ability to come off the bench and make the odd spot start made him a valuable member of an Atlanta team that had to overcome some significant injuries on its way to the championship.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Adrianza on a fine career, and we wish him all the best in the next phase of his life.

Marlins Notes: Payroll, Alcantara

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The rebuilding Marlins have continued to subtract from their big league roster this winter, trading Jake Burger to the Rangers and Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies.  Since Burger wasn’t yet arbitration-eligible and Luzardo was projected for a modest $6MM in his second arb year, the trades were more about adding young talent than cutting payroll, yet losing even Luzardo’s estimated $6MM salary has an additional impact on a bigger-picture question facing Miami’s finances.

As observed by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (using estimates from RosterResource), the Marlins have a luxury tax number of roughly $82.8MM.  This leaves the Fish some ground to cover before they reach the $105MM threshold estimated as the figure representing 150 percent of the club’s reported $70MM or so in revenue-sharing funds.  As stipulated by the league’s collective bargaining agreement, teams who receive revenue-sharing funds must spend at least 150 percent of those funds on player payroll, at the risk of facing a grievance from the players’ union.

It wouldn’t be the first time that the Marlins faced this consequence, as the MLBPA filed a grievance against the Marlins, Rays, Pirates, and Athletics in February 2018 based on the union’s stance that the clubs were simply pocketing a good deal of their revenue-sharing money, rather than reinvesting those funds towards player payroll.  Rosenthal and his Athletic colleague Evan Drellich recently noted that that grievance was still pending in an adjusted form, though the most recent CBA saw the minimum spend rise from 125 percent to its current 150 percent figure.

The revenue-sharing minimum drew more of a spotlight this winter when the A’s started to increase their payroll, which was viewed as the team trying to hit that $105MM tax number and avoid any heat from the players’ union.  The Athletics’ situation is a little different since their revenue-sharing status was reduced in the earlier years of the CBA while the team was looking for a new ballpark, and they are now back to receiving a full-fledged share of revenue-sharing funds in 2025.

The Marlins have generally been among the lowest-spending teams in baseball for most of their history, and spanning multiple ownership groups.  Bruce Sherman’s purchase of the Marlins in 2017 was initially viewed as a possible light at the end of the payroll tunnel, though the sudden departure of CEO Derek Jeter prior to the 2022 season threw a wrench into that perception, especially since payroll expenditures were reportedly one of several sources of disagreement between Sherman and Jeter.

Miami did elevate spending a bit under GM Kim Ng and the team made the playoffs in 2023, but Sherman’s desire for a better farm system led to Ng’s departure after that season, and the hiring of Peter Bendix as the Marlins’ new president of baseball operations.  Taking a page from Bendix’s former team in Tampa Bay, the Marlins seem to be moving towards a Rays-esque model of relying on a strong minor league pipeline to build their rosters, while only modestly spending on payrolls.  Bendix’s arrival kickstarted yet another rebuild, as the Marlins have dealt several of their more experienced and higher-priced players over the last year.

As much as the Athletics’ winter moves were made with the revenue-sharing number in mind, acquiring Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, and Gio Urshela are also sensible from an on-field standpoint, given the club’s needs in the rotation and at third base.  Considering that the A’s played solid baseball over the last three months of the 2024 season, the West Sacramento team might even have some darkhorse potential as a wild card contender if everything breaks right and the Athletics get another breakout or two from younger players.

The Marlins are in a different situation.  While there is some interesting talent on the roster, it is very hard to imagine Miami contending in 2025, nor does contending seem to be in the front office’s plans within the near future as Bendix focused on overhauling the player development system.

Spending $22.2MM to get up to the $105MM threshold likely won’t translate, therefore, in any additions that will help Miami win ballgames in 2025.  The Marlins could add a couple of lower-cost veterans on one-year deals, with an eye towards potentially trading those players at the deadline once the majority of their salaries have been officially tallied onto the team’s tax bill.  With a nod towards the Marlins’ goal of restocking the farm system, Bendix could potentially look into trading for a bad contract or two from another team, with that other team adding some prospects as a sweetener to further entice Miami into absorbing most or all of the money owed.

Unsurprisingly, Bendix didn’t provide many details on the Marlins’ spending plans, telling the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and other reporters this week that “I’m not going to comment on what we might or might not do.  Bruce continues to give us all the resources we need to build this franchise for sustainable success.”

Bendix also didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Sandy Alcantara could be traded, saying that “We never rule out anything.  We listen to everything.”  That said, Alcantara was told back in August that he probably wasn’t getting dealt this offseason, and Bendix noted that “Sandy is a really important piece for our organization.  I’m really excited to see him pitch on Opening Day.”

Alcantara is the highest-paid player on Miami’s roster, as the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons, plus there is a $21MM club option ($2MM buyout) on his services for 2027.  This salary has naturally made Alcantara the subject of continued trade rumors, even though Alcantara didn’t pitch in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.

Obviously the Marlins wouldn’t be trading the right-hander for a maximum return in the wake of this injury, which is why a deal this winter remains unlikely.  If Bendix was to sell low on Alcantara now only to see him rebound to ace form in the early part of the 2025 season, that’ll count as a missed opportunity to gain the biggest possible trade package for the Marlins’ biggest remaining trade chip.  Miami’s payroll might also factor into the equation here, as Rosenthal notes that trading Alcantara would leave the Marlins even further away from the $105MM revenue-sharing threshold.

Just as Bendix isn’t likely to openly state that Alcantara is available in trade talks, the PBO also isn’t likely to entirely shut down any offers because of basic due diligence.  Bendix surely doesn’t want to limit options just in case a pitching-needy team actually is willing to part with a premium return for a pitcher coming off a lost season.

Red Sox Acquire Jovani Moran From Twins For Mickey Gasper

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The Red Sox and Twins have lined up on a Christmas Eve trade that will see left-hander Jovani Moran head to Boston in exchange for catcher/first baseman Mickey Gasper.  Hunter Noll of Beyond The Monster was the first to report the deal, and both teams have officially announced the trade.

Moran underwent Tommy John surgery last offseason, leading to the Twins to non-tender him before re-signing the southpaw to another minor league deal.  Moran naturally didn’t pitch at all in 2024 while rehabbing, and he’ll now look to return to the mound in Boston, as the 27-year-old is changing organizations for the first time in his career.

A seventh-round pick for the Twins in the 2015 draft, Moran also missed full minor league seasons in 2016 (due to injury) and in 2020 (the pandemic-canceled season).  Moran finally made his MLB debut in the form of eight innings for the Twins in 2021, and he then seemingly broke out with a 2.21 ERA over 40 2/3 relief innings for Minnesota in 2022.  Moran supported that strong ERA with a 32.9% strikeout rate and 48.9% grounder rate, yet both his peripherals and his bottom-line results went backwards the next year.

Moran had a 5.31 ERA, 41.9% grounder rate, and 26.1% strikeout rate in 42 1/3 frames in 2023, and after being optioned to Triple-A at the start of his August, his season was prematurely ended by a forearm strain in September that led to his eventual TJ surgery.

Despite the lack of a big fastball, Moran’s ability to miss bats and his knack for inducing grounders has helped him achieve success in the minors and (in limited fashion) at the big league level.  Control is his biggest question mark, as Moran has a 13.5% walk rate over his 91 career MLB innings and a 12.36BB% in 257 2/3 innings of minor league ball.

Moran joins Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson as left-handed additions to the Red Sox bullpen mix this offseason, though Moran is more of a depth option at this point depending on his health and his form after the long layoff.  While he probably won’t be ready for the Opening Day roster, some time in the minors might help Moran fully recover and get some innings under his belt before the Red Sox consider him for any possible role in their big league bullpen.

The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman writes that Moran received some attention from teams heading into the Rule 5 Draft, and in fact it was Gasper who came to the Red Sox from the Yankees organization in the minor league version of the 2023 Rule R5.  The selection resulted in Gasper’s first taste of big league action, though he didn’t record a hit in his 23 plate appearances over 13 games for the Sox this season.

Gasper played first and second base during his brief time in the Show, but the majority of his career has come behind the plate.  Gasper’s ability to both catch and play other positions (primarily first and second, with a handful of games as a third baseman and left fielder) adds to his versatility, not to mention his switch-hitting bat.  This creates a possible opening for Gasper to win a bench job in Minnesota, as a third catcher and general utilityman behind the Twins’ catching tandem of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez.  It remains to be seen if the Twins will be able to trade Vazquez and get any of his contract off the books, yet if so, Gasper could be a candidate as Jeffers’ backup.

Gasper was a 27th-round pick for the Yankees in the 2018 draft, but he carved a path for himself through New York’s farm system with some strong numbers at every step of the minor league ladder.  Over an even 1600 minor league PA, Gasper has hit .275/.392/.449 with 48 homers, and those numbers include nine home runs and a .317/.422/.498 slash line in 282 PA at the Triple-A level.

Yankees Interested In Tim Hill

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Starters Max Fried and Carlos Rodon are the only left-handed pitchers on the Yankees’ 40-man roster, leaving the Bronx Bombers in clear need of some southpaw depth for the bullpen.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the team is considering a few left-handed relief options, including a possible reunion with Tim Hill.

After posting a 5.87 ERA in 23 innings with the White Sox, Hill was released by Chicago in June and quickly scooped up by the Yankees on a new contract.  The change of scenery worked wonders for Hill in terms of bottom-line results, as he posted a 2.05 ERA in 44 frames with New York during the regular season and then a tiny 1.08 ERA over 10 appearances and 8 1/3 innings in the playoffs.

Hill’s status as an extreme groundball pitcher can lead to such big swings in performance, as one often needs to look behind just the ERA to fully gauge the veteran lefty’s effectiveness.  Hill had an enormous .436 BABIP with the White Sox and then a .238 BABIP with the Yankees, perhaps explaining why the gap in SIERA (3.33 with New York, 4.04 with Chicago) isn’t quite as large as Hill’s ERAs would suggest.  The biggest change was improved control, as Hill had an 8.5% walk rate with the Sox and then only a 5.2% walk rate in the Bronx.

Now entering his age-35 season, Hill has a 3.99 ERA over 322 1/3 career innings across seven MLB seasons, with a 61.8% grounder rate helping overcome only a 17.3% career strikeout rate.  Those numbers naturally include a lot of success against left-handed batters, as Hill has held same-sided hitters to a .614 OPS (while right-handed hitters have a .788 OPS).  The home run ball has been an issue for Hill in the past, though he allowed just two homers over his 75 1/3 total frames in the regular season and postseason in 2024.

It was almost exactly a year ago that Hill signed a one-year, $1.8MM contract with the White Sox, on the heels of being non-tendered by the Padres.  His late-season success in the Yankees very likely means that Hill will land another guaranteed deal this winter, though his age and somewhat inconsistent track record will limit him to a one-year pact.  This limited price tag is surely a plus for a Yankees team already projected to be over the highest level of luxury tax penalization.  From Hill’s perspective, one would imagine he would also have interest in returning to the Yankees given his post-trade success, and getting another crack at winning a World Series ring.

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