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Archives for January 2025

Yankees, Dominic Smith Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees are in agreement with first baseman Dominic Smith on a minor league contract, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network. Presumably the Roc Nation Sports client will get a non-roster invite to MLB camp.

Smith will vie for a big league roster spot for a ninth consecutive season. He has spent more than half that time in New York as a member of the Mets. Smith was a top prospect who posted huge offensive numbers in a limited sample between 2019-20. His bat has markedly tailed off since that point. Smith struggled between 2021-22, leading the Mets to move on. He had a middling .254/.326/.366 showing over a career-high 586 plate appearances with the Nationals the following year.

The 29-year-old divided last season between the Red Sox and Reds. He got a decent amount of run as Boston’s starting first baseman while Triston Casas was injured. Smith hit .237/.317/.390 through 278 plate appearances with the Sox. Boston released him in mid-August when Casas made his return from the injured list. Smith inked a big league contract with Cincinnati shortly thereafter. He only got into nine games, hitting .192 without a home run over 29 trips before the Reds cut him loose. He finished the season with a cumulative .233/.313/.378 slash.

New York signed Paul Goldschmidt to take over as the primary first baseman. They’ve got Giancarlo Stanton penciled in at designated hitter. That gives Smith an uphill battle to cracking the MLB roster out of camp, though Stanton has a lengthy injury history. Ben Rice is on the 40-man roster as a lefty-hitting first baseman, so Smith would probably need to outperform him during Spring Training to have a shot at an Opening Day job.

Orioles Designate Blake Hunt For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that catcher Blake Hunt has been designated for assignment. The move opens a roster spot for right-hander Andrew Kittredge, who has now been officially signed to a one-year deal.

Hunt, 26, still hasn’t made his major league debut. Drafted by the Padres in 2017, he went to the Rays as part of the December 2020 trade that brought Blake Snell to San Diego. He had emerged as an intriguing prospect prior to that deal but his stock dropped after joining the Rays. In November of 2023, rather than add him to the roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, the Rays traded him to the Mariners. The M’s gave him a roster spot but flipped him to the Orioles in May for Mike Baumann and Michael Pérez.

Around all those transactions, Hunt has generally produced middling offensive numbers in the minors. Over the past four years, he has a combined batting line of .231/.302/.395, which translates to an 82 WRC+. That includes a rough .218/.273/.364 line and 60 wRC+ in 2024.

After that performance, Hunt has lost his roster spot. The Orioles will now have a week to figure out what’s next for him, whether that’s a trade or a fate on the waiver wire. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any trade would need to come together in the next five days.

Despite his down season at the plate, it’s possible some club takes a shot on him based on past prospect pedigree. Going into 2021, FanGraphs listed him just outside the top 100 on that year’s top prospects list. His stock has fallen since then but he still has a couple of option years, meaning he could be an intriguing depth option for a club with a roster spot and a plan for getting him back on track.

Mariners Sign Donovan Solano

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The Mariners announced that they have signed infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year contract. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that the ACES client will make $3.5MM this year, with $1MM in performance bonuses also available to him. Left-hander Austin Kitchen was designated for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Solano, 37, has somewhat quietly been one of the better utility players in the league in recent years. Earlier in his career, he spent time with the Marlins and Yankees but didn’t hit enough at the major league level. He languished in the minors in 2017 and 2018 but got back to the big leagues in 2019 and has been hitting almost non-stop since then.

Over the past six years, Solano has played for the Giants, Reds, Twins and Padres. He got into 546 games over that stretch, stepping to the plate 1,838 times. He has managed to produce a batting line of .294/.353/.413 in that time, which translates to a wRC+ of 112, indicating he’s been 12% above league average overall.

For those years, he has a combined .360 batting average on balls in play. That would normally be a concern, since the league average is usually below .300, but he’s been maintaining high BABIPs for several years now. Of the six most recent seasons, his BABIP bottomed out at .321 in 2021. He was at .346 or higher in the other five seasons. That suggests the numbers are more a reflection of his swing than mere luck.

Solano won’t provide huge power, with last year’s eight home runs actually marking a career high. His walk rates aren’t especially strong either. However, his style of offense could be a good fit for Seattle, as that club has been wary of its strikeout problems for a while now.

Going back to the 2023 club, guys like Mike Ford, Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Tom Murphy were not brought back after posting strikeout rates north of 27%. But Seattle didn’t find the improvements it was looking for in that category last year, with guys like Luis Urías, Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Randy Arozarena striking out more than 28% of the time after being brought aboard. Solano has a career strikeout rate of 18.9% and has never had that number finish higher than 22.2% in any individual season.

The Mariners have clearly been looking for infield help this winter. Justin Turner hit free agency. Josh Rojas was non-tendered. The M’s turned down a club option on Polanco. That left them with J.P. Crawford at shortstop and question marks elsewhere.

Solano has played all four infield spots in his career but hasn’t played shortstop since 2021. He has more experience at second base than anywhere else but has spent more time at the corners in recent years.

That flexibility gives the Mariners some options in terms of how Solano is deployed. Reporting this winter has suggested the club may feel it has enough in-house options to cover second base, with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss potentially covering there until prospect Cole Young seizes the job. Luke Raley is an option to be the strong side of a platoon at first, since he’s a lefty swinger with notable splits. Guys like Austin Shenton, Tyler Locklear, Samad Taylor and Leo Rivas are also capable of playing various infield positions and on the 40-man roster.

The M’s are likely not done adding to that group, so Solano’s role could well be determined by what other moves are forthcoming. He could take some playing time at second or third, while his right-handed bat could also allow him to shield Raley from lefties at first base. Solano has fairly neutral platoon splits for his entire career, with a 101 wRC+ against lefties and 98 wRC+ otherwise. However, he’s been a bit more extreme in his recent resurgence. Over the past six years, he has slashed .310/.361/.444 against lefties for a 122 wRC+, compared to a .285/.349/.395 line and 107 wRC+ against righties.

It has been reported this offseason that the M’s were working with about $15-16MM of payroll space. Solano will use up a small portion of that while strengthening the infield group. That still leaves with them with some powder dry for another infield addition. It was previously reported that they were interested in bringing back Turner, though it’s possible the Solano signing makes that harder to put together.

It’s also possible that the M’s make a bold move to totally remake the picture, as there have been rumors they could trade Luis Castillo as a means of freeing up some spending capacity. Whether they go that route or simply find another modest infield addition remains to be seen. Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training in about a month.

Kitchen, 28 next month, has limited big league experience. A prospect in the Rockies’ system, he was selected to the big league roster in June but was designated for assignment the next day without getting into a game. He went to the Marlins via waivers and made four appearances for that club, allowing 11 earned runs in seven innings. A second DFA in September put him back on waivers, which led the Mariners to put in a claim.

Though Kitchen has an ugly 14.14 earned run average, it’s a tiny sample of major league work. His minor league track record has generally been solid, with the lefty keeping the ball on the ground. In 2024, pitching for three organizations, he logged 52 1/3 innings in the minors. In that time, he had a 3.78 ERA, 15.1% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 55.1% ground ball rate.

The M’s will now have a week to figure out what’s next for Kitchen, whether that’s a trade or another trip to the waiver wire. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any trades would have to come together in the next five days. Kitchen still has a couple of option years and minimal service time, so a club willing to give him a roster spot could keep him as cheap depth for the foreseeable future.

Roki Sasaki Reportedly Informs Several Teams They Are Out Of Running

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3:10pm: The Rangers have also been informed that they are out of the running, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Diamondbacks never got a meeting with Sasaki and won’t be the destination either, per John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix.

2:56pm: The Mets have also been informed that they are out of the running, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

2:35pm: The Yankees have been told that right-hander Roki Sasaki will not be signing with them, reports Jack Curry of Yes Network. That’s the second team that is reportedly out, with the Giants having also been told that they won’t be Sasaki’s destination. Andy Martino of SNY adds that the Mets aren’t expected to sign him either, though it’s unclear if they have been given a clear denial like the Giants and Yankees. As for teams that are still in the mix, Sasaki reportedly met with the Padres in San Diego recently, per a report from Dennis Lin, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. This was after his recent meeting with the Blue Jays in Toronto.

Sasaki has been on the radar of MLB clubs for years, but his situation became very interesting once it became clear that he would be coming over to North America this winter. Since he is not yet 25 years old, he is considered an amateur under MLB’s international signing rules. That makes a massive difference in his earning power and opens him up to potentially sign with any club.

Per the international bonus pool system, each club has a limit on how much signing bonus money they can give to international amateurs, with this year’s pools ranging from $5-8MM. Broadly speaking, the large-market clubs have the smaller pools and vice versa. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t add more than 60% of their initial pool allotment.

The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s Nippon Professional Baseball club, will also be owed a posting fee. However, the value of that fee will be a percentage of his signing bonus and won’t be a large number either. Per the NPB posting rules, the fee is 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. Since Sasaki will be capped by the pool system, his deal will lead to a modest bonus, with the posting fee adding 20%.

Had Sasaki waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional and could have signed a deal for any amount. That’s the route Yoshinobu Yamamoto took, eventually securing a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.

It can be debated as to who is the better pitcher between Yamamoto and Sasaki, but the point is that there’s tremendous upside in getting Sasaki aboard for such a small investment. Teams that normally don’t sign top free agents can become theoretical fits, while the larger clubs have big payrolls and competitive balance tax concerns, making them very interested as well.

By coming to North America now, Sasaki has seemingly illustrated that maximizing his short-term earnings is not his top priority. Since each club has roughly the same ability to offer him a bonus now, he should be focused on non-financial criteria for making his decision. It could come down to geography, a club’s reputation developing pitching or perhaps a team’s long-term competitive outlook. His agent, Joel Wolfe, said the plan was for teams to make pitches before the holidays. Sasaki would then travel to visit the home cities of certain clubs after the holidays.

A decision needs to come soon. Sasaki can’t officially sign until January 15 when the new pool year starts, but he also has to be signed by January 23, when his posting window closes. Now that there’s only a handful of days left, it seems he is narrowing the field.

The Yankees and Mets both reportedly met with Sasaki in December but it seems that he won’t be coming to New York to join either club. Both teams already have plenty of rotation options, though they surely would have welcomed the problem of adding Sasaki into the mix and further crowding things. The Yankees are already feel good enough about their pitching depth that they are reportedly shopping Marcus Stroman.

Perhaps signing Sasaki wouldn’t have added too much to the urgency to trade Stroman. MLB teams often use six-man rotations when folding in a Japanese pitcher, as the NPB usually sees starters throw once a week as opposed to the five-day rotation in North America. It’s a moot point now but the Yanks still project to start the year with a strong group that includes Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, which is why Stroman’s available.

The Mets have more uncertainty in their rotation but still have plenty of arms to potentially fill out their rotation. Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill are all possibilities. There are question marks with many of those names but that’s eight viable candidates of varying degrees for five rotation spots.

Many observers have considered the Dodgers and the Padres to be the two most likely landing spots, so it’s not especially surprising that San Diego is still in the mix. No one can be sure what Sasaki’s priorities are, but it’s been suggested that the club’s West Coast location and strong performance in recent years are points in their favor, as well as Sasaki’s friendship with Yu Darvish.

As pointed out by The Athletic and others, the Padres could probably use Sasaki more than any other club. They have known financial constraints but plenty of holes to fill, which is why players like Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease, Jake Cronenworth and Robert Suarez have been in trade rumors this winter. Adding a pitcher of Sasaki’s caliber at such a discounted rate would be tremendously helpful for them.

As of right now, the rotation projects to include Darvish, Cease and Michael King, with plenty of question marks beyond that. Adding Sasaki would give the Padres a very strong front four, but it could also perhaps increase the chances of the Friars trading Cease for players that are cheaper and more controllable but less proven.

It’s still anyone’s guess what team will be chosen by Sasaki and why. As mentioned, the Jays are still a possibility, based on Sasaki’s recent trip to Toronto. The Padres are obviously in there as well. The Athletic mentions the Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Mariners are clubs that are thought to be in the mix. It’s unknown if Sasaki will visit with any of those other clubs but resolution is coming soon, with more information perhaps trickling out in the coming days.

Orioles Sign Andrew Kittredge

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January 13: The O’s officially announced their signing of Kittredge today.

January 9: The Orioles and free agent reliever Andrew Kittredge are in agreement on a one-year, $10MM guarantee, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Paragon Sports International client receives a $9MM salary for the upcoming season and is guaranteed a $1MM buyout on a $9MM club option for 2026. Baltimore has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a move when the contract is finalized.

Kittredge will step into a setup role in front of star closer Félix Bautista, who is making his return from Tommy John surgery. The veteran joins Seranthony Domínguez, Yennier Cano and Keegan Akin as potential high-leverage pieces in Brandon Hyde’s bullpen. Kittredge has plenty of seventh and eighth inning experience. He led the National League and finished second in MLB (behind Houston’s Bryan Abreu) with 37 holds for the Cardinals last season.

The righty earned the trust of St. Louis manager Oli Marmol as the top setup arm in front of star closer Ryan Helsley. He worked 70 2/3 innings with a 2.80 earned run average. Kittredge punched out a league average 23.3% of batters faced while limiting walks to a modest 7% clip. He missed bats on an above-average 13.7% of his pitches while doing a reasonable job keeping the ball on the ground.

Kittredge, who turns 35 shortly before Opening Day, isn’t a flamethrower. He worked in the 94-95 MPH range with both his sinker and four-seam fastball. That’s solid velocity but by no means exceptional for a modern late-inning reliever. Kittredge’s specialty is beating hitters with a plus slider. He turned to the breaking ball around half the time.

Opponents hit .177 against the pitch while swinging through it more than 40% of the time that they offered at it. He particularly excelled at getting hitters to go out of the zone. Opponents swung at nearly 42% of the pitches that Kittredge threw outside the strike zone. Among pitchers with 50+ innings, only Arizona left-hander Joe Mantiply got chases at a higher rate.

The one knock against Kittredge last season was a problematic platoon split. Pitchers who lean on a slider-sinker mix often struggle with opposite-handed hitters. That was certainly the case for Kittredge. He stifled right-handed batters to a .188/.247/.291 line in 183 plate appearances. Lefties teed off at a .296/.337/.571 clip with six homers in 104 trips. His career platoon splits aren’t as drastic, but lefties have managed a solid .244/.320/.455 slash in more than 400 plate appearances against him. Baltimore has a trio of southpaws who are locks for bullpen spots if healthy: Akin, Gregory Soto and Cionel Pérez. That gives Hyde some options if he wants to shield Kittredge from opposing lineups’ best lefty bats.

Despite the vulnerability to southpaws, Kittredge has a strong multi-year track record. He debuted with the Rays in 2017 and spent parts of seven seasons in Kevin Cash’s bullpen. Kittredge worked in middle relief for the first few years but had a breakout showing in ’21. He fired a career-best 71 2/3 innings of 1.88 ERA ball to earn an All-Star selection. Kittredge injured his elbow early the following year and required Tommy John surgery. The timing of that procedure limited him to 31 appearances between 2022-23.

Tampa Bay flipped him to St. Louis last winter for outfielder Richie Palacios. Kittredge picked up where he’d left off pre-surgery during his only season with the Cardinals. He owns a 2.48 ERA across 162 appearances going back to the start of the ’21 season. That made him one of the better relievers in this year’s free agent class, though his age limited the contractual upside.

MLBTR ranked Kittredge the offseason’s #40 free agent. We predicted a two-year, $14MM pact covering his age 35-36 seasons. He falls short of the multi-year deal and that overall guarantee but secures a solid salary for the upcoming campaign. Kittredge is the third pitcher and the fourth free agent whom the O’s have signed to a one-year deal this winter. Baltimore has added Charlie Morton ($15MM), Tomoyuki Sugano ($13MM), and Gary Sánchez ($8.5MM) alongside their biggest acquisition — outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year, $49.5MM contract that allows him to opt out after the first season.

The five free agent expenditures have added $63MM (including Kittredge’s option buyout) to next year’s payroll. Baltimore has certainly been a bigger player under first-year owner David Rubenstein than they were in recent years under John Angelos. The O’s have shied away from any significant long-term commitments, instead adding shorter-term veteran pieces around their prized position player core. RosterResource calculates their ’25 player payroll around $156MM, which would be their highest figure since 2017. O’Neill is their only player on a guaranteed contract that stretches beyond this year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Walked Away From Jeff Hoffman Deal Due To Physical

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1:50pm: Bowman further reports that the Braves’ offer to Hoffman was a five-year pact valued between $45-48MM total. The idea would have been for Hoffman to get an opportunity to pitch out of the rotation in the season’s first few years before a potential move to the ’pen down the road. The lengthy nature of the pact suggests that part of the aim was to tamp down the annual value of the contract and thus reduce the luxury hit.

1:25pm: Right-hander Jeff Hoffman signed with the Blue Jays on Friday, a three-year deal with a $33MM guarantee. Shortly after the Jays announced that signing, it was reported that the Orioles had agreed to give Hoffman $40MM over three years but backed out after flagging a shoulder issue in his physical. The saga continues today, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that the Braves also walked away from a deal with Hoffman.

There are no details on Hoffman’s agreement with Atlanta. It’s unclear if this was before or after the agreement with Baltimore. It’s also not publicly known what sort of financials details were worked out between Atlanta and Hoffman. Bowman doesn’t specifically mention what issue Atlanta found in the physical, though it’s presumably the same shoulder problem that the O’s flagged.

It’s a notable development on a couple of fronts. For fans of the Jays, this will perhaps add to the level of concern that already developed out of the report about the deal with the O’s. All teams have different thresholds for what is or is not a concern during a physical, but the fact that two clubs were scared away from Hoffman will understandably be a bit nerve-wracking for fans of the club he is now a member of.

It bears repeating that the Orioles didn’t want to walk away from Hoffman completely. Per last week’s reporting, Baltimore continued negotiating with Hoffman after nixing the $40MM agreement. That suggests that whatever they found in his shoulder wasn’t a dealbreaker, but rather something that lowered the amount of money they were willing to commit to him. It’s unknown how much the shoulder issue knocked off of their offer, but it presumably dropped below the $33MM figure that Hoffman got from Toronto.

Time will tell if the shoulder becomes a problem for Hoffman during the next three years, but it’s a situation that has precedents. Carlos Correa is the most notable recent example, as he originally had a 13-year, $350MM agreement with the Giants before they flagged an ankle issue in his physical. That led to a 12-year, $315MM agreement with the Mets, though that was also quashed by the ankle issue. That led Correa back to the Twins on a six-year, $200MM guarantee with four vesting options that can eventually lead to Correa earning $270MM over ten years. Since then, Correa’s results have been mixed. He got into 135 games in 2o23 with tepid offense, followed by excellent numbers in 2024 but in just 86 games, heading to the injured list due to a right oblique strain and plantar fasciitis in his right foot.

There have been other examples of disagreements about health lately. The Yankees reportedly had a deal in place to acquire Jack Flaherty at last year’s deadline but walked away due to concerns about his back in the medical reports. The Dodgers seemingly had less concern, as they swooped in to get him. Flaherty went on to stay healthy, forming a key part of the club’s rotation down the stretch and through the playoffs as the Dodgers won the World Series.

This Hoffman situation also has some parallels to Toronto’s signing of Kirby Yates a few years ago. Going into 2021, the Jays gave Yates a $5.5MM guarantee with performance bonuses but he required Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season. In the wake of that surgery, it was reported that Atlanta had walked away from giving Yates a $9MM deal while the Jays also reduced their guarantee from $8.5MM, both due to concerns with the physical.

The Jays reportedly believed that Yates’s upside was worth the risk on that modest investment, which didn’t work out. In this instance, it’s unclear if the concern is as high as it was with Yates, though the investment is far larger. Though as mentioned, the O’s were still willing to make some kind of investment in Hoffman as well, to an unknown degree.

For Atlanta, while the details of their engagement with Hoffman aren’t known, this can perhaps tell us a bit about what’s next for them. If they had an agreement with Hoffman, it was likely somewhere in the $35-45MM range. That suggests both that they have some money to spend and a willingness to use it on upgrading the pitching staff.

Hoffman reportedly got some interest as a starting pitching earlier in the offseason. It’s unknown which role Atlanta had in mind, though they did do the reliever-to-starter conversion thing with Reynaldo López last year. They signed López to a three-year, $30MM deal and then moved him to the rotation for the 2024 season. That has worked out very well so far, as López posted a 1.99 earned run average in his 25 starts last year.

A rotation addition seems to be on the to-do list for Atlanta again this winter. They lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton to other clubs via free agency and were connected to Nathan Eovaldi earlier this winter, though he later re-signed with the Rangers. On the other hand, the bullpen lost A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez and others to free agency, while knee surgery is going to possibly keep Joe Jiménez on the IL for the whole 2025 season.

Atlanta has been fairly quiet this winter, mostly making cost-cutting moves. That includes jettisoning Jorge Soler’s contract, non-tendering Ramón Laureano, turning down an option on Travis d’Arnaud and restructuring the deals for López and Aaron Bummer. It’s unclear exactly where they want the payroll to be but RosterResource currently projects it at $201MM, about $22MM below last year’s $223MM Opening Day figure listed at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. RR also has Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number at $217MM, which is $24MM shy of the $241MM base threshold of the tax.

Atlanta has paid the tax in each of the past two years. Back in December, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the club could pay the tax again in 2025, though without firmly declaring that they would do so. Given the wiggle room they currently have, it’s possible for them to make a notable investment or two while still staying south of the line.

Hoffman could have been a part of their plans, either for the rotation or the bullpen, though they will now have the chance to redirect that money to someone else. The free agent market still features starters like Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and others, as well as relievers including Tanner Scott, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson and more. The trade market may feature names like Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo as rotation options, while Ryan Pressly and Erick Fedde are some relievers who could be available in trade talks.

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GM: Giants Have Been Informed They’re Out Of Running For Roki Sasaki

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The Giants are currently introducing future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander at a press conference, but there’s some other headline news coming out of that media session as well. Giants general manager Zack Minasian revealed during his comments that while his team met with Roki Sasaki’s camp, they’ve now been informed that Sasaki will not be signing there (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).

There are no further details on the matter than that. It’s not fully clear whether Sasaki visited Oracle Park in San Francisco or whether the meeting being referenced was conducted in Los Angeles, at the headquarters for Sasaki’s agency, Wasserman. That’s moot at this juncture anyhow, though, as the Giants’ elimination from the process is the latest step in narrowing the field.

Agent Joel Wolfe detailed at last month’s Winter Meetings that the plan for Sasaki’s free agency was for teams to submit initial presentations and pitches prior to the holidays. Sasaki and Wasserman hosted interested teams for meetings at a central location — Wasserman’s L.A. headquarters — and the plan was for the 23-year-old righty to then visit some finalists in their home locales after the holidays.

A full list of teams with which he’s visited isn’t publicly known, though Sasaki did travel to Toronto to meet with the Blue Jays recently. Presumably, with Wasserman being based in Los Angeles, Sasaki has met with the Dodgers and nearby Padres — the two long-presumed favorites in the bidding. Other clubs that have been prominently linked to Sasaki include the Rangers, Yankees, Mets, Cubs and Mariners.

With Sasaki not coming to San Francisco and Verlander’s deal now official, the Giants’ rotation appears all but set. Verlander will join Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks in rounding out a quintet that’s quite talented but has a handful of question marks (Verlander’s age, Ray’s health, Hicks’ workload). In-house depth options with at least some big league experience include Tristan Beck, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black and Landen Roupp.

Giants Sign Justin Verlander

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January 13: The Giants made the deal official over the weekend and introduced Verlander to the media today. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, in addition to the $15MM salary, Verlander’s deal also contains awards bonuses and a full no-trade clause.

January 7: The Giants are in agreement with Justin Verlander on a one-year deal, pending a physical. Verlander, a client of ISE Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $15MM.

The future Hall of Famer will play his age-42 season in San Francisco. Verlander has previously suggested he hopes to pitch until he’s 45. There was never any doubt that he’d be back on a one-year contract somewhere. It always seemed unlikely to continue in Houston. Verlander had an illustrious run with the Astros around his first half stay with the Mets in 2023. He’s coming off a challenging season, though, leading Houston to let him walk.

Verlander took the ball 17 times and turned in a 5.48 earned run average through 90 1/3 innings. He had a pair of injured list stints — first in April for shoulder inflammation, then a two-month stretch between June and August related to a neck issue. Opponents tagged him for an ERA north of 8.00 over his seven starts after he returned from the latter injury. Verlander conceded after the season that he had come back too soon as he tried to contribute to Houston’s playoff push.

San Francisco believes there’s more in the tank with a healthy offseason. Verlander is only one year removed from an excellent season. He combined for a 3.22 ERA across 162 1/3 innings with New York and Houston in 2023. That came with a 21.5% strikeout rate that was well below Verlander’s prior level. That pointed to regression from his Cy Young form, but he still found plenty of success with diminished swing-and-miss stuff that year.

Verlander averaged 93.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball last season. That’s down slightly from the 94-95 MPH range in which he sat between 2022-23 but hasn’t completely fallen off the table. Pitching at less than full strength could account for that dip. If Verlander is fully healthy in 2025, it’s not outlandish to expect his velocity to rebound.

Health is an obvious caveat for a 42-year-old pitcher. Verlander has already defied expectations once, coming back from Tommy John surgery to win his third Cy Young at age 39 in 2022. Even if he’s not likely to repeat that kind of performance, he could be an asset as a mid-rotation arm and veteran presence in a staff that lost Blake Snell.

Logan Webb will be back to take the mantle as the team’s #1 starter. Verlander and Robbie Ray slot in the middle of the rotation as high-upside veterans who are trying to rebound from injuries. Former top prospect Kyle Harrison should be the fourth starter. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said last month that the Giants intend to give hard-throwing sinkerballer Jordan Hicks another chance at a rotation spot. Younger arms Landen Roupp, Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong could push Hicks for the fifth starter role.

This is the second free agent move of Posey’s first winter atop baseball operations. His big splash was a seven-year deal to install Willy Adames at shortstop. Posey has publicly suggested that continuing to strengthen the offense was a bigger priority than the rotation, but they evidently liked the value of a one-year roll of the dice on Verlander.

San Francisco had roughly $208MM in luxury tax obligations coming into today, as calculated by RosterResource. This will push them to around $223MM, a little less than $20MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. Verlander’s deal matches the $15MM salaries which veteran starters Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton also landed earlier this winter.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the Giants and Verlander had agreed to a one-year deal. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the $15MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

What Could Pete Alonso’s Market Look Like On A Short-Term Deal?

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As the offseason wears on, talk about a potential short-term deal for Pete Alonso only intensifies. The slugger is one of the sport's most prolific home run hitters, second only to Aaron Judge dating back to Alonso's 2019 MLB debut. He's a consistent 30- or 40-homer presence who's anchored the middle of the Mets' lineup from the moment he set foot in the majors. The "Polar Bear" is a former Home Run Derby winner who's leaned into the spectacle of that summer showcase, participating in the event for five straight years and taking home the trophy on two different occasions.

Alonso is a marketable, star-caliber player who'd improve any lineup -- even on the heels of a downturn in performance (relative to his lofty standards). After slashing .261/.349/.535 through his first four MLB campaigns, Alonso has dipped to "only" .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons. He's still corked 80 homers in that time and been 21% better than average at the plate by measure of wRC+, but it's a notable departure from Alonso's first four seasons, when wRC+ pegged him 37% better than the average hitter.

For a player who just turned 30 and doesn't bring much to the table with the glove or on the bases, any dip in production is worrying. Alonso's strikeout rate has also crept back up. After falling from 26.4% to 25.5% to 19.9% and 18.7% from 2019-22, he's punched out at a 22.9% rate in 2023 and a 24.7% rate in 2024. It's not necessarily an alarming trend yet for a player with Alonso's prodigious power -- especially since he's also boosted his walk rate in consecutive seasons, reaching 10.1% in '24 -- but there's still some reason to be concerned.

Alonso thrived at making contact on pitches off the plate in 2021-22 when his strikeout rate was at its lowest, doing so at a 59.4% clip that was well north of the 56.5% league average across those two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Alonso's contact rate outside the strike zone has dipped to 54.6%. He's offset that by cutting down on the rate at which he chases -- hence the improved walk rate -- but when he does chase, he's swinging through the pitch more often.

Those red flags (of varying severity), Alonso's age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer all surely combine to tamp down some interest in him. He never seemed that likely to reach the heights that Freddie Freeman did in free agency (six years, $162MM), but there was some thought that a five-year deal (or six at a lower rate) could be there.

That said, the short-term developments were also foreseeable. We've kicked ourselves for moving off the prediction of a three-year, $90MM deal with multiple opt-outs for Alonso, which for awhile was our unofficial prediction for MLBTR's annual Top 50 free agent list. The market hasn't rewarded this skill set in recent years, and it felt very possible that Alonso would go out looking for Freeman money -- if not more -- and find himself in a situation similar to that of last offseason's quartet of fellow Boras clients who lingered on the market into spring training. We ultimately opted to bet that the market -- or at least just the Mets -- would show out for Alonso and predicted five years and $125MM. Maybe he'll still get there, but the likelihood seems much lower now.

ESPN's Jeff Passan, The Athletic's Will Sammon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio and a host of others have all reported on the possibility of Alonso taking a short-term deal in recent weeks. It's hard to imagine such an arrangement would happen anywhere other than Queens. But, if the Mets simply don't want to bring Alonso back on a premium annual salary -- they're nearly into the third luxury penalty tier; Alonso would catapult them to the fourth and highest tier -- others could certainly enter the mix.

Let's run through some potential landing spots under the assumption that Alonso has indeed softened his stance on a short-term arrangement...

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