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Cubs Notes: Caissie, Assad, Shaw

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Cubs outfielder Owen Caissie has been shut down, per manager Craig Counsell, as relayed by Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. The outfield prospect is battling left groin tightness. Lee mentions that Caissie underwent offseason core muscle surgery, though it’s unclear if his current issue is related to that procedure.

Caissie, 22, is on the 40-man roster but was unlikely to earn an Opening Day roster spot. That’s more to do with the overall roster picture than anything about Caissie in a vacuum. He’s a top 100 prospect who hit .278/.375/.472 for a 121 wRC+ in 127 Triple-A games last year. He was added to the 40-man in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

The Cubs’ big league outfield is slated to be crowded, with Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker in three spots. Seiya Suzuki will likely be in the designated hitter spot with regularity but could tag in for those others on occasion. Alexander Canario was designated for assignment earlier today but Jon Berti and Vidal Bruján are likely to be on the bench in utility roles.

Tucker is slated for free agency after this season and both Happ and Suzuki will hit the open market the following winter. That should open more long-term playing time but Caissie and fellow outfield prospect Kevin Alcántara appear slated for more Triple-A work in 2025, at least to start the year. Alcántara has just one option year remaining, perhaps giving him a slight edge in terms of earning a major league chance if an injury opens up some big league playing time. For as long as Caissie is shut down, the Cubs will have a bit less outfield depth but shouldn’t be in trouble unless a few more injuries pop up in the outfield mix.

Turning to the pitching staff, it was revealed last week that right-hander Javier Assad was out with some oblique soreness. That was later diagnosed as a mild strain, per Lee last week. Counsell relayed today that Assad has resumed playing catch.

That hopefully indicates that Assad is more or less on schedule, as he projects to be in the Opening Day rotation as long as he avoids the injured list. He will slot in at the back of a starting mix that includes Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon. If Assad were out of action, then perhaps swingman Colin Rea would step up. But that may not be necessary, allowing Rea to serve as a long reliever out of the bullpen. Assad has a 3.40 earned run average in 294 innings for the Cubs over the past three years, mostly as a starter.

On the infield, Counsell says Matt Shaw has been hitting in the cage and throwing. Like Assad, he had been slowed by an oblique issue but it appears both are making progress. Assuming Shaw stays healthy for the next few weeks, he’s the favorite to earn the third base job out of camp. However, the Cubs have been clear that he will have to earn the job and it won’t just be handed to him.

He will therefore have to be healthy enough to get on the field in the next few weeks and show the Cubs he’s worthy of the gig. The timeline is a little tighter than some other teams, as the Dodgers and Cubs are heading to Japan soon for the Tokyo Series. Those two clubs will be playing exhibition games against Japanese clubs on March 15th and 16th, before playing regular season contests against each other on March 18th and 19th.

Shaw slashed .284/.379/.488 for a wRC+ of 146 between Double-A and Triple-A last year. If he doesn’t secure the job out of camp, then some combination of Berti, Bruján, Justin Turner and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman would likely be the fallback options. Nicky Lopez and Dixon Machado are non-roster invitees with some big league experience in camp.

ESPN, MLB Opt Out Of TV Deal For 2026-28

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Major League Baseball and ESPN each opted out of their broadcasting contract covering the 2026-28 seasons. Barring a renegotiation, the upcoming season will be the final year of their partnership. Evan Drellich and Andrew Marchand of The Athletic reported the news before either MLB or ESPN announced it.

MLB released a statement reading in part:

“We have had a long and mutually beneficial partnership with ESPN that dates back to its first MLB game in 1990. Unfortunately in recent years, we have seen ESPN scale back their baseball coverage and investment in a way that is not consistent with the sport’s appeal or performance on their platform.

Given that MLB provides strong viewership, valuable demographics, and the exclusive right to cover unique events like the Home Run Derby, ESPN’s demand to reduce rights fees is simply unacceptable. As a result, we have mutually agreed to terminate our agreement. … The positive energy around the sport has also led to significant interest from both traditional media companies and streaming services who would like to obtain rights to MLB games. We will be exploring those opportunities for a new agreement which would start in the 2026 season following the conclusion of ESPN’s agreement at the end of this year.”

ESPN said in a statement of its own that it “applied the same discipline and fiscal responsibility that has built ESPN’s industry-leading live events portfolio. … As we have been throughout the process, we remain open to exploring new ways to serve MLB fans across our platforms beyond 2025.”

Clearly, the contract’s collapse stems from a disagreement on rights fees. Drellich and Marchand write that ESPN would have paid roughly $550MM annually had it not triggered an opt-out by March 1. The broadcast company sought to renegotiate, pointing to the much lower fees paid by Apple and Roku on its own deals. Apple pays $85MM annually for a pair of Friday night games that are carried on Apple TV+. Roku is paying $10MM per season for the right to broadcast one game on Sunday mornings.

ESPN’s television package was much more robust. The network carried the Sunday night game each week of the regular season (the only game in that time slot), the Home Run Derby, and the Wild Card round of the playoffs. That’s far more valuable than Apple’s pair of non-exclusive Friday night games or Roku’s Sunday morning slot. It’s not clear how far ESPN wanted to cut fees on a new deal, but that wasn’t of interest to the league.

Drellich and Marchand relay a memo that MLB commissioner Rob Manfred sent to the league’s owners explaining the decision. In addition to differentiating between ESPN’s package and those of Apple and Roku, Manfred wrote that MLB has “not been pleased with the minimal coverage that MLB has received on ESPN’s platforms over the past several years outside of the actual live game coverage.” The commissioner wrote that he did “not think it’s beneficial for us to accept a smaller deal to remain on a shrinking platform.”

Manfred indicated that MLB has begun discussions with other platforms. ESPN had carried Sunday Night Baseball since 1990 and the Home Run Derby since ’93. The current contract was negotiated in 2021.

Blue Jays To Sign Ryan Yarbrough To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Excel Sports Management client also receives an invite to spring training.

Yarbrough, 33, finished out the 2024 season with the Jays. Toronto flipped outfielder Kevin Kiermaier and cash to the Dodgers at last year’s deadline, with Yarbrough heading the other way in that deal. The southpaw filled a long relief role for the Jays after that swap, logging 31 1/3 innings over 12 appearances, allowing just 2.01 earned runs per nine.

The lefty doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 86.5 miles per hour on his fastball last year, but has carved out a big league career as a swingman mostly based on engineering soft contact from opponents. Over the past seven seasons, he has spent time with the Rays, Royals, Dodgers and Jays. He has appeared in 196 games, with only 68 of those technically being starts, though many of his relief outings have been lengthy appearances behind an opener.

Overall, he has a 4.21 ERA in 768 big league innings. His 18.7% strikeout rate is subpar but his 5.5% walk rate is very good. He has allowed an average exit velocity of 85.1 miles per hour, which is more than three ticks better than average. Statcast has put him in the 97th percentile or better in that category in each season of his career. His 28% hard hit rate is more than eight percentage points better than par. In that category, Statcast has put him in the 94th percentile in each season of his career.

The Blue Jays have four veterans locked into their rotation, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt each having spots. It seems likely that Bowden Francis will get a shot to be the fifth starter after he posted a 1.53 ERA in his final nine starts of the 2024 season. That could push Yariel Rodríguez, who started for the Jays last year, into a bullpen role. The Cuban righty previously had success as a reliever in Japan. However, Francis still has an option and could technically be sent to Triple-A to start the year.

In terms of depth, the Jays have Jake Bloss and Adam Macko on the 40-man roster, but Macko just underwent arthroscopic knee surgery and will be out for an undetermined amount of time. Eric Lauer and Adam Kloffenstein are in camp as non-roster invitees. Yarbrough will give the club a bit of extra non-roster depth for its staff and could perhaps earn a role as a long reliever out of the bullpen if his contract is selected.

Yarbrough is an Article XX(b) free agent since he has at least six years of major league service and finished the previous season on a 40-man roster or 60-day injured list. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, players in that camp who sign minor league deals more than ten days prior to Opening Day get uniform opt-outs. Those opt-out chances are five days before Opening Day, as well as May 1st and June 1st.

Athletics Sign Dylan Floro To Minor League Deal

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5:03pm: The A’s announced that they have signed Floro to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

1:50pm: Veteran right-hander Dylan Floro has a locker set up in the Athletics’ clubhouse, reports Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. It’s not clear whether he’s come to terms on a major league or minor league contract, but some type of deal between the two sides is in place. Floro is represented by Pro Edge Sports Management. If the A’s need to add him to the 40-man roster, they can do so easily by sliding Ken Waldichuk to the 60-day injured list while he continues rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Floro, 34, split the 2024 season between the Nationals and D-backs, combining for 68 innings of 3.80 ERA ball. Those solid end-of-year numbers don’t tell the full tale of his season, however. The nine-year MLB veteran excelled in D.C., logging a pristine 2.06 earned run average through 52 1/3 innings. Floro’s 19.6% strikeout rate was well below average, but his 6.4% walk rate was excellent and his 47.6% grounder rate was sharp. However, the big driver of his success was a 2.2% homer-to-flyball ratio (one homer in 52 1/3 innings).

The rate stats painted Floro as a regression candidate, and while the Snakes surely weren’t expecting him to continue on with a rough 2.00 ERA pace, the extent to which the pendulum swung in the opposite direction with Arizona was nonetheless shocking. Floro was shelled for 17 earned runs — five more than he allowed in his entire Nationals tenure —  in 16 1/3 innings. After surrendering just one homer through 204 batters faced as a National, Floro served up round-trippers to four of the 75 opponents he faced wearing a D-backs uniform. Arizona wound up designating Floro for assignment and releasing him in late September.

Though Floro’s home run suppression in Washington last year was clearly unsustainable, the veteran righty has demonstrated throughout his big league career that he’s better at keeping the ball in the yard than quite literally any pitcher in MLB. Outside of the 2017 season, when he logged only 9 2/3 MLB innings, Floro has never averaged even one homer per nine innings pitched. Opponents have mustered only 0.54 homers per nine frames against Floro throughout his 402 2/3 big league innings. Since his 2016 debut, 259 pitchers have tossed 400 or more innings. None has a lower HR/9 mark than Floro (making his Arizona struggles all the more surprising).

It should be noted that Floro’s struggles with the Diamondbacks weren’t simply a function of poor luck, however. The right-hander also worked with significantly diminished stuff in 2024. He’s never been a flamethrower, but Floro sat 92.9 mph with his heater from 2020-23 — including a 92.3 mark in ’23. Last year, that average velocity plummeted to 89.8 mph, per Statcast. His sinker (93.1 mph from 2020-23) followed suit, tumbling to 89.9 mph on average. Floro’s slider and changeup both sat 85-86 mph in 2020-23 but landed at 83.3 mph and 83.5 mph, respectively, in 2024.

If Floro can restore some of that lost velocity or simply pitch more effectively with reduced stuff, he has the track record to suggest he can be a valuable piece in manager Mark Kotsay’s bullpen. Since solidifying himself as a big league reliever with the Reds and Dodgers in 2018, Floro boasts a 3.38 ERA, 32 saves and 53 holds. His 21.1% strikeout rate in that time is a couple percentage points worse than average, but his 7.2% walk rate is more than a percentage point better than par and his 50.4% ground-ball mark is quite strong.

The Athletics’ bullpen is anchored by star closer Mason Miller and free agent signee Jose Leclerc. Miller, Leclerc and lefty T.J. McFarland are the only three members of the A’s bullpen with even one full year of service. Floro would add a fourth experienced veteran who could help with setup duties and take pressure off minor league free agent pickups Tyler Ferguson and Michel Otañez, both of whom found their way into late-inning roles last season despite debuting as 31-year-old and 27-year-old rookies, respectively.

The Mariners’ Second Base Competition

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The Mariners spent most of the offseason looking to address the infield. They eventually made a pair of relatively small free agent pickups. Donovan Solano was brought in as a right-handed platoon partner for Luke Raley at first base. Seattle surprisingly re-signed last year’s second baseman Jorge Polanco after the worst season of his career. The M’s are attributing that dip mostly to knee issues that required postseason surgery.

Polanco is moving to third base. That’s an effort to reduce how much he’ll move laterally to hopefully put less stress on his knees. The Mariners needed to do something at third base. Josh Rojas, who’d provided very little offensively after the first month of last season, was non-tendered. Polanco’s return will hopefully provide a boost at the hot corner, but it leaves second base open. There’ll likely be a camp battle between a veteran utilityman, a couple players with limited big league experience, and perhaps one of the organization’s top prospects.

Dylan Moore

A six-year major league veteran, Moore has easily the most experience of anyone in the competition. He has been a productive role player for Seattle. Moore typically plays in over 100 games per season while bouncing around the diamond. He takes a lot of walks and brings some right-handed pop, but his batting averages have hovered around the Mendoza line. He’s a career .206/.316/.384 hitter. He posted a .201/.320/.367 line with 10 homers and 32 stolen bases across a career-high 441 plate appearances last year.

Park-adjusted metrics like wRC+ and OPS+ had his overall offensive output right around league average — a reflection of how difficult it is to hit at T-Mobile Park. Moore’s splits are stark. He hit .249/.362/.478 away from Seattle but mustered only a .144/.269/.234 slash line at home. He was also far better against left-handed pitching. Moore hit .229/.352/.410 when he held the platoon advantage, compared to a .183/.299/.339 mark against righties.

Daniel Kramer of MLB.com wrote last night that Moore was the frontrunner for the starting job, though the M’s haven’t made a final decision. The 32-year-old has never had one settled position. He played all four infield spots and in left field last year. Moore has logged over 100 career innings at every position aside from catcher. He’s miscast at shortstop and in center field but plays solid defense everywhere else. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have credited him as an above-average defender in his nearly 1100 career innings at the keystone.

Ryan Bliss

Bliss, 25, is a former second-round pick by Arizona whom the Mariners acquired in the Paul Sewald trade. He’s coming off a strong year at Triple-A Tacoma. The Auburn product hit .269/.377/.456 with 12 homers and 50 stolen bases (albeit with 13 times caught stealing) over 93 games. He drew walks at an excellent 14.1% clip against an average 22.4% strikeout rate. The Mariners called him up in late May.

Over his first 33 MLB contests, the righty-swinging Bliss hit .222/.290/.397. He hit a couple homers and swiped five bases, but he had a tough time making contact. Bliss struck out in 22 of his 71 plate appearances (a 31% rate) with a huge 16.5% swinging strike rate. That was a small sample in his first look at MLB pitching, so some struggles are to be expected, but the M’s optioned him back to Triple-A for the final two months of the season.

Listed at 5’7″ and 165 pounds, Bliss isn’t going to be a prototypical slugger. His average exit velocity and hard contact rate at both the Triple-A and MLB levels were solid, though. He has more power than it might seem at first glance. He’s a good athlete with decent strike zone discipline. The biggest question is whether the bat-to-ball skills will develop enough to make him a regular.

While Moore provides a ton of defensive flexibility, Bliss has a more limited profile. He played exclusively second base in the majors. Bliss has played on the left side of the infield (mostly shortstop) in the minors, but his arm strength is a question. He’s fast enough that the Mariners could eventually get him some work in the outfield, though his professional experience there consists of two minor league games in left field. Bliss still has a pair of options, so he’s likelier to end up back in Triple-A if he doesn’t win the second base job.

Cole Young

Young, 21, was Seattle’s first-round pick in 2022. He has ranked among Baseball America’s Top 100 overall prospects in all three professional seasons. Young has primarily played shortstop in the minors, but he started 37 games at second base with Double-A Arkansas last season. Barring injury to J.P. Crawford, Young figures to break into the majors as a second baseman.

Could that be as soon as Opening Day? President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has left the door open. “We are open to the idea that if any of our young players — if we feel like they have the ability to impact us in a meaningful way — show us that this is their time, we’re just going to let them run,” Dipoto said (via Kramer).

Young is coming off a strong Double-A season. He hit .271/.369/.390 with a robust 12.1% walk rate and a modest 15.8% strikeout percentage. While he only hit nine homers, he has an advanced hit tool and plate discipline. BA credits him as a potential plus hitter with fringe power who could play an above-average second base.

The lefty hitter has no Triple-A experience. The conventional path would be for him to begin the season in Tacoma with an eye towards a midseason promotion. That’s the likeliest outcome, but a big performance in Spring Training might accelerate the timeline.

Leo Rivas/Miles Mastrobuoni

Rivas, a switch-hitter, is likelier to wind up as a depth infielder than a regular. He reached the majors last year for the first time as a 26-year-old, hitting .233/.333/.274 in 43 games. Rivas posted big numbers in Triple-A. He turned in a .296/.441/.424 slash behind a massive 20.7% walk rate. He’ll work plenty of free passes but has limited power. Rivas can play shortstop and is better suited as a utility player. With two minor league options, he’ll likely bounce on and off the active roster.

Seattle acquired the 29-year-old Mastrobuoni in a DFA trade with the Cubs last month. He’s a .219/.279/.263 hitter over parts of three seasons. He’s unlikely to play regularly but could get occasional work around the infield if he holds onto his 40-man roster spot. He still has an option remaining.

Padres Re-Sign Tim Locastro To Minor League Deal

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Outfielder Tim Locastro is returning to the Padres on a minor league contract, Locastro himself tells Robert Harding of the Auburn Citizen. The Warner Sports client is on the mend from shoulder surgery performed last July and will head to minor league camp.

Locastro, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Padres last offseason as well. He hit well, putting up a line of .333/.449/.479 in Triple-A, but in just 33 games. As he himself tells Harding, he landed awkwardly during a steal attempt in the middle of May and dislocated his right shoulder. He tried to rehab this injury but was unsuccessful, undergoing the aforementioned July surgery to repair damage in that shoulder, including to his labrum. He tells Harding that he’s now healthy and ready to go for the 2025 season.

Though he didn’t make it to the majors last year, Locastro did appear in the previous seven campaigns. He’s never been a full-time player but his tremendous speed has made him an attractive bench piece. He has stolen 45 bags in 50 attempts at the big league level. Statcast ranked him as having 100th percentile sprint speed from 2019 to 2021, dropping slightly to 99th and 93rd percentile in 2022 and 2023.

He has stepped to the plate 616 times in the majors, with a line of .228/.327/.337. That translates to a wRC+ of 85, indicating he’s been about 15% below league average. He’s generally been better in the minors, with a career line of .289/.387/.457 in Triple-A, but hasn’t been able to put up that kind of performance in the show. Despite his speed, reviews on his defense are mixed. He has been graded as worth five Outs Above Average but Defensive Runs Saved has him at -5 in his 1,218 2/3 innings.

The Padres have two outfield spots spoken for, with Jackson Merrill in center and Fernando Tatis Jr. in right. Jason Heyward and Connor Joe will seemingly form a platoon in left. Players like Tirso Ornelas and Brandon Lockridge are on the 40-man and could earn some playing time, but they also have options and could get regular action in the minors instead.

If Locastro can play his way onto the roster, he’ll provide the Friars with a speedy bench outfielder. For now, he’ll join Oscar González and Forrest Wall as notable minor league signees in the outfield mix. Locastro has less than five years of service time but is out of options.

Cubs Sign Justin Turner

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The Cubs are bringing one of the game’s most experienced veteran hitters into the fold, announcing Thursday that they’ve signed Justin Turner to a one-year contract. Outfielder Alexander Canario has been designated for assignment (as was reported earlier today). Turner, a VaynerSports client, is reportedly guaranteed $6MM with incentives also available. The guarantee breaks down as a $4MM salary and $2MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for 2026. As for the incentives, Turner would get $125K for getting to 350, 375, 400, 425, 450 and 475 plate appearances. He’d get $250K for getting to 500, 525 and 550 plate appearances. There’s also $250K for 120 and 150 days on the active roster, as well as a $500K bonus every time he’s traded.

Despite his age, the now-40-year-old Turner remained a productive bat for the Blue Jays and Mariners in 2024. He hit 24 doubles and 11 home runs while continuing to make the most of his plate discipline and contact skills en route to a .737 OPS and 117 wRC+. The righty batter was particularly productive for Seattle in September, slashing .295/.396/.449 with a 143 wRC+. In other words, there is little reason to doubt that he can still be a valuable contributor to a team with postseason aspirations.

Turner has qualified for the batting title in each of the past four seasons, but he will take on more of a part-time role with the Cubs. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers notes that Turner is expected to fill a backup role at first and third base. Chicago reportedly considered many options for such a job but ultimately settled on Turner after missing out on star third baseman Alex Bregman (per Rogers). The Cubs were a finalist to sign Bregman before he joined the Red Sox instead. The team also reportedly considered trading for Nolan Arenado, although it comes as no surprise that the Cardinals weren’t interested in trading Arenado to a division rival (per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney).

Primarily a third baseman in his younger days, Turner has only played a handful of games at the hot corner in each of the past two seasons. Instead, he has transitioned to a first base/DH role. Both of those jobs are already spoken for in Chicago, with promising sophomore Michael Busch at first base and Seiya Suzuki, arguably the team’s second-best hitter after Kyle Tucker, penciled in at DH. Still, the Cubs plan to use Turner primarily at those two spots, per Mooney; Turner won’t be lining up at third base with any regularity.

Turner could potentially platoon with Busch at first if the lefty batter struggles against same-handed pitching. On top of that, Turner will offer the club insurance in the case of an injury to Busch, Suzuki, or a corner outfielder; if Tucker or Ian Happ gets hurt, Suzuki could play the outfield with Turner taking over as the primary DH. Even if everyone is healthy, the Cubs could give Happ or Tucker the occasional breather and plug Turner in at designated hitter on such days.

With regard to third base, top prospect Matt Shaw seems to be the most likely choice to win the job out of camp, but the 23-year-old has yet to play a game at the big league level. Thus, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made it clear that Shaw is not yet guaranteed the starting job. However, the Cubs don’t exactly have a ton of other options. Jon Berti and Vidal Brujan both have MLB experience at third, but neither is a starting-caliber player at the position. Meanwhile, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is himself an unknown quantity; he has not played a game above Double-A. Turner isn’t an everyday solution, but he’ll at least improve the team’s depth at third while providing a quality bat to deepen the team’s offense.

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic was first to report that the Cubs and Turner were finalizing a one-year, $6MM deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed there was an agreement in place and reported the performance bonuses, as well as the full breakdown.

Marlins Claim Seth Martinez

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The Marlins announced that they have claimed right-hander Seth Martinez off waivers from the Diamondbacks. The latter club had designated him for assignment earlier this week. To open a roster spot, the Marlins transferred right-hander Eury Pérez to the 60-day injured list. Pérez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected back until around the All-Star break.

It’s the second waiver claim of the offseason for the 30-year-old Martinez. The Astros put him on waivers at the start of November, just as the offseason was getting going. The Snakes claimed him and kept him for a few months, but he got nudged off their roster when they signed Kendall Graveman a few days ago.

His entire big league track record has been with the Astros thus far. That club added him to their roster late in 2021. He got a cup-of-coffee MLB debut that year, then spent the past three seasons as an up-and-down depth arm for Houston. From his initial selection to the 40-man until being put on waivers, the Astros optioned him 12 times.

In between those trips to Sugar Land, he threw 137 1/3 major league innings for the Astros, allowing 3.93 earned runs per nine. He struck out 20.7% of opponents and gave out walks 9.2% of the time, marks just a bit worse than league average.

His minor league numbers have been a bit more intriguing. He logged 105 innings on the farm over the past four years with a 2.66 ERA. His 10% walk rate in that sample was still a tad high but he paired it with a strong 31.5% strikeout rate.

However, he exhausted his final option year in 2024, meaning he could no longer be freely shuttled to Triple-A and back. That’s why he has twice been put on waivers in the past few months and why he has been claimed today.

The Astros and Diamondbacks are clubs with competitive aspirations, so keeping Martinez in a big league spot would be a bit more tricky. The Marlins should find it far easier, however. As part of their rebuild, they have aggressively sent out players with big league experience, with the bullpen being no exception. Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, Bryan Hoeing, Huascar Brazobán and JT Chargois were traded at last year’s deadline. Anthony Bender is now the only reliever on the roster with even three years of big league experience.

Before this move, Andrew Nardi was the only other guy over the two-year service mark, but Martinez now joins him in that camp. Though he’s out of options, Martinez could hang onto a spot in Miami’s bullpen if he’s pitching semi-effectively, given the lack of proven options. Most of the other guys in the relief mix are optionable. He should get a chance to post numbers more in line with his minor league track record. If he holds a spot all season, he can theoretically be retained via arbitration through 2028.

Poll: Do The Mets Need Another Starter?

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The Mets undeniably made the single biggest splash of the entire winter when they brought superstar slugger Juan Soto into the fold on a record-shattering $765MM deal back in December. Along with the club’s reunion with Pete Alonso and some complementary additions like Jesse Winker and Jose Siri, the Mets’ offense appears to be in a very strong place as they look to build off their NLCS appearance last year.

The same cannot be said for the rotation. Despite rumors that connected the Mets to top starters on the trade market like Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease (as well as plenty of early speculation about the Mets as potential suitors for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried), the club took a far more measured approach to its starting staff. With Kodai Senga and David Peterson already in the fold, the club reunited with southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency while bringing in Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning to replace Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Joey Lucchesi on the depth chart.

It’s an interesting group of names, and it’s not hard to see the potential upside in those moves. Holmes becomes the latest well-regarded reliever to try his hand at starting, and success stories like Crochet, Seth Lugo, and Reynaldo Lopez offer a tantalizing glimpse at what Holmes could provide the Mets with should the move work out. Meanwhile, Montas was a well-regarded No. 2 starter as recently as three years ago, and Canning is just one year removed from being a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Angels.

Still, there’s plenty of very real risk involved with each of the club’s additions. Holmes could instead follow in the footsteps of less-successful rotation converts like Jordan Hicks or even A.J. Puk. Montas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and struggled to remain effective even when he is on the mound, and Canning was arguably the single worst qualified starter in baseball last year. Even Manaea is coming off a career year that he may not be able to repeat in his age-33 season this year.

The question marks in the rotation came to a head earlier this week when it was revealed that Montas is currently suffering from a lat strain that was expected to shut him down for six to eight weeks. The veteran righty has since suggested that he’s set for just four to six weeks of no-throw, but that still suggests he may not have even begun throwing when Opening Day rolls around, at which point he’ll still need to make up for the lost preparation time caused by him missing a full spring training. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest that the Mets will be without Montas until sometime in May. If they still intend to use a six-man rotation, that would likely mean that Senga, Manaea, Peterson, and Holmes will be joined by Canning and Paul Blackburn.

Naturally, questions have arisen about whether the club should make another addition. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued that the Mets hadn’t done enough with the rotation even before news of Montas’ injury.) A number of veteran starters are still available in free agency, including four who made MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list at the outset of the offseason. A recent MLBTR Poll suggested that fans views Quintana as the best of those remaining arms, though the Mets have not been involved in his market despite interest in a reunion from the veteran southpaw’s side.

Even if the Mets aren’t enamored with the possibility of a Quintana reunion, both Andrew Heaney and Spencer Turnbull are still available and could be used either in the rotation or out of the bullpen depending on the club’s needs, affording the Mets flexibility when Montas returns. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are among the other veteran arms still available in free agency.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the club’s rotation already runs six names deep even without Montas. Neither Canning nor Blackburn can be optioned — both have five-plus years of service — but righties Tylor Megill and Justin Hagenman are both on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Top prospect Brandon Sproat will likely make his debut at some point in 2025 as well.

If the Mets don’t add anyone right now, they could look for rotation help closer to the trade deadline if it proves necessary. That would allow them to find out more about their offseason rolls of the dice on guys like Montas and Canning before deciding if they need another arm. There will also likely be a larger supply of arms available in July, as the number of sellers will increase relative to spring training, where optimism abounds throughout the league. Perhaps the risk of having to surrender an exciting young piece from their farm system to add an arm this summer makes adding depth now for nothing but money a more attractive option. Each side has its pros and cons.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the issue? Are the Mets too light on talent in the rotation to compete with the Braves and Phillies for the NL East crown this year without another arm? Or should they stick with their internal options to open the season and reassess their starting depth at the trade deadline this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Fantasy Baseball: Regression Is A Cruel Mistress

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Hello friends.

The Gauts remain buried in Midwest snow and single-digit temps, but the good news is I've become super proficient in virtual learning/hiding from my kids to sneak away to write fantasy nerd stuff. They always find me, though...Always.

Regardless, let me warm up my fantasy soul with some regression-fueled hate. Wait! Hold on; just wait. I know "regression" can be a dirty word for some, as it's too often used as a crutch to explain both the good and the bad. Its disciples can go too heavy with their reliance while the detractors get set against all things analytical and too often throw out all the good with the bad.

Like most things, an extreme path is rarely best. Regression can be good and regression can be bad; it's all relative, baby. Just like we shouldn't assume that a 3.00 xFIP will translate to a 3.00 ERA in the future, we also shouldn't assume a 4.00 xFIP will equal a 4.00 ERA.

No individual number tells the whole story in baseball, but they can serve as markers, good or bad, pointing out areas that may warrant further examination. And while one bad flag doesn't necessarily mean disaster, worry should pile up as the number of red flags mounts.

Let's look at three starters who were excellent last season but have more red flags than a Turkish semaphore team. That's right -- a flag-signaling joke. Deal with it.

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