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Eduardo Tait

Twins Deadline Notes: Phillies, Duran, Jax, Paddack, Reds

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It wasn’t really a shock that the Twins became deadline sellers, as the club’s downturn in June and July pretty much closed the door on Minnesota’s chances of contending.  However, the sheer scope of the Twins’ selloff was eye-opening, as the club swung nine different trades within four days of the July 31 deadline and sent 11 different players to eight separate clubs.  Several behind-the-scenes details about the trades the Twins both did and didn’t make have filtered out since July 31, and Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Minnesota Star Tribune adds a few more notes about the front office approached this pivotal four-day period.

Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax were both pursued by several teams, though “the Dodgers didn’t show much interest in” either reliever, Nightengale writes.  This runs somewhat contrary to a pre-deadline report that linked Los Angeles to the duo, though it could be that the Dodgers simply weren’t interested in paying what ended up being a high price tag for either pitcher.  Though the Dodgers were known to be considering pretty much every reliever on the market, the reigning World Series champs’ biggest bullpen splash ended up being another Twin in Brock Stewart.  Though Stewart is arbitration-eligible through 2027, his “trade value was more commensurate with a rental reliever because of his injury history,” according to Nightengale, which is why Minnesota obtained outfielder James Outman (something of a spare part in L.A.) rather than prospects.

The Twins wanted two top-100 prospects for Duran, an asking price commensurate with the closer’s quality and the fact that he is arb-controlled through 2027.  It was a big enough ask to dissuade the Mariners, who “were deep into talks with the Twins” and may have been the runners-up in the Duran talks.  The Phillies refused to give up Andrew Painter for Duran or anyone, and ended up landing Duran for catching prospect Eduardo Tait and young starter Mick Abel.

Technically, this trade package didn’t meet Minnesota’s ask, since Abel was no longer part of top-100 rankings heading into the 2025 season.  Still, Abel has been a regular on such rankings for the previous four years, was selected 15th overall by the Phils in the 2020 draft, and is a big league-ready starter after making his MLB debut this season.

Tait and Leo De Vries (acquired by the A’s from the Padres in the Mason Miller blockbuster) were the only consensus top-100 prospects who changed teams at this year’s deadline, speaking to the high value that clubs place on these top prospects.  Nightengale writes that Minnesota felt Tait “had the highest upside” of any of the players that the Mariners offered for Duran, and preferred Tait to another top Phillies prospect in shortstop Aidan Miller.  This would seem to imply that Philadelphia was also willing to include Miller as the top prospect in the package, which tracks with past reports indicating that Painter and perhaps Justin Crawford were the only real untouchables within the Phils’ minor league system.

Duran was dealt on July 30 and the Twins then swung another trade with the Phillies the next day, moving Harrison Bader for two lower-level prospects (outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria).  The Twins and Phillies had previously talked about combining Duran and Bader into a single deal, but Nightengale writes that Minnesota wanted to move Duran separately.

This left Bader as one of the seven trades Minnesota swung on the July 31 deadline day itself, including the deal that sent Jax to the Rays for Taj Bradley.  Since Jax is also arb-controlled through 2027, the Twins initially wanted a prospect package “similar to the one they received in the Duran deal.”  This could explain why “Jax’s market didn’t pick up until the last day,” Nightengale notes, and perhaps why teams like the Dodgers were balking.  Rather than getting a prospect back for Jax, the Twins instead got an experienced MLB starter who is controlled through 2029, and as the club is betting that Bradley has a higher ceiling of performance.

Minnesota’s trading flurry began when Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak were sent to the Tigers on July 28 in exchange for catching prospect Enrique Jimenez.  Paddack was known to be receiving interest from the Rays and Yankees, and Nightengale adds that the Reds were another club at least exploring the right-hander’s market.  With Paddack off the board, Cincinnati pivoted to land another rental starter in Zack Littell as part of a three-team trade involving the Rays and Dodgers.

Phillies Acquire Jhoan Duran

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The Phillies have acquired closer Jhoan Duran from the Twins in exchange for catching prospect Eduardo Tait and right-handed pitcher Mick Abel. Both teams have officially announced the deal.

Duran was one of the biggest names on this summer’s trade market. He came in at no. 34 on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 trade candidates, but he surely would have ranked higher if it seemed more likely that he’d be dealt. The flamethrowing right-hander is one of the undisputed best closers in the game, with a career 2.47 ERA, 2.48 SIERA, and 74 saves in 83 chances over the past four seasons. Dating back to his rookie season in 2022, he has thrown 233 2/3 innings in 223 games, racking up 292 strikeouts (seventh-most among relievers) with an elite 63.2% groundball rate. His 9.10 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks third in that same span, trailing only Devin Williams and Félix Bautista. The 1,284 pitches he’s thrown at or above 100 miles an hour (per Statcast) are easily the most in the majors; Mason Miller ranks second with 819. Only 27 years old and arguably pitching better than ever – he’s on pace for career-highs in both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference versions of WAR – Duran remains under team control via arbitration through the 2027 campaign.

The possibility of the Twins trading Duran began to seem more and more realistic over the past couple of days, with the 51-57 Twins looking to take advantage of a seller’s market and a bevy of contending teams seeking late-inning bullpen help. It was no secret the Phillies were one such club. A few weeks ago, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported that Duran (and teammate Griffin Jax) would be “prized targets” for Philadelphia, noting that, in contrast to past deadlines, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was prioritizing “controllable big leaguers” and, in particular, a controllable “shutdown, late-inning reliever.” Since Gelb’s initial report, several more sources linked the Phillies to Duran, including Nightengale and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, but the most recent reporting indicated that their refusal to part with top prospect Andrew Painter would ultimately prevent them from landing Duran, with both Nightengale and Rosenthal and Gelb suggesting as much. Evidently, the Twins softened their demands, although there is no doubt the Phillies still paid a high price to acquire their new bullpen ace.

Tait is widely considered a top-100 prospect, ranked 50th by Baseball America, 51st by Baseball Prospectus, and 56th by MLB Pipeline. As BA notes, he is their first top-100 prospect to be traded ahead of the deadline since 2023, and the highest ranked since 2022. Whether or not the Twins achieved their reported goal of landing two top-100 prospects in exchange for Duran depends on which lists you’re looking at; Abel is currently no. 92 on MLB Pipeline’s list, but he dropped off BA’s most recent post-draft rankings and fell off BP’s list after 2023. For what it’s worth, neither Tait nor Abel was included on FanGraphs’ latest top 100 update.

Looking beyond the arbitrary “top 100” cutoff, however, what matters is that the Twins received a pair of highly talented young players, of a caliber rarely seen moved in deadline deals. Tait is a bat-first catcher with big power and a strong throwing arm, but the rest of his defensive game needs significant work. Still, the bat has enough potential that he could succeed in the majors (presumably at first base or DH) even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate. He lit up the competition in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League in his first two professional seasons, but he hasn’t looked quite as powerful in Single-A and High-A this year. That said, he’s only 18 years old, which is young for his level, and scouting reports matter far more than his numbers right now. Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes that the Twins have “very good” internal grades on Tait.

Abel might not have quite as much upside as he once did, but he has looked much better this year than he did in 2023 or ’24. He has a 2.31 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 13 Triple-A starts, both his best numbers at any level in any year of his professional career. While he looked overmatched at times in his first six MLB starts for the Phillies, his mediocre overall numbers are the combination of three strong starts and three disappointing outings. He’s not there quite yet, but he showed signs that he could soon become a capable big league starting pitcher. Whether that’s a mid-rotation or back-end starter is now up to the Twins, but he has good raw stuff and a deep arsenal for their development and coaching staffs to work with.

Heading into play today, the Phillies ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.33 bullpen ERA and 15th with a 3.82 bullpen SIERA. Their strong starting rotation has helped to limit the bullpen’s workload (their bullpen ranks last in innings pitched), but still, it’s not hard to understand why Dombrowski was looking for a significant upgrade. Philadelphia’s longest tenured reliever, hard-throwing lefty José Alvarado, will be out until mid-August serving a PED suspension, and he won’t be eligible to pitch in the playoffs. Jordan Romano, the team’s primary bullpen acquisition of the offseason, has struggled to a 6.81 ERA. No one knows what to expect from David Robertson, who did not sign with a team until earlier this month. He remained one of the best relievers in baseball at age 39 in 2024, but he essentially started his spring training last week. Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm have provided manager Rob Thomson with a couple of reliable back-end options, but as the Phillies battle with the Mets for the NL East crown and look to contend for a World Series, it’s clear to see why they identified Duran as a major difference-maker.

As for the Twins, there is now no question they are in full sell mode, having dealt Duran and Chris Paddack, whom they sent to the Tigers on Monday. This makes it seem all the more likely that they will soon trade Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe, all of whom are set to hit free agency at the end of the season. However, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes that Minnesota is now far more likely to hold on to Jax, their other controllable relief ace. Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune echoed Feinsand’s statement, writing that the Twins have not “ruled out” trading Jax, but their asking price could now be astronomical – perhaps too high for anyone to meet.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report that the two sides were closing in on a trade, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the Twins would receive Tait and Abel in exchange for Duran. ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to confirm the agreement.

Photo in article courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images.

Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

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The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.

As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.

The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.

Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.

Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.

Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.

For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.

But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.

Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.

That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.

Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.

Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.

Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.

Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.

Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.

That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.

If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.

It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.

Photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images

NL Notes: Padres, Phillies, India

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The Padres saw four members of their rotation mix department for free agency back in November, led by reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Along with their ace southpaw, San Diego parted ways with right-handers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez, each of whom has found a new club. At least in the case of Lugo, however, it appears San Diego hoped to continue the relationship into 2024 and beyond. According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres made a four-year offer to Lugo before he landed in Kansas City on a three-year, $45MM deal last month. Lin adds that while San Diego was willing to beat the Royals’ offer in terms of years, their offer came at a lower average annual value than that of Kansas City.

That the Padres would want to reunite with Lugo is hardly a surprise given his successful 2023 with the club. After spending his entire career with the Mets prior to hitting free agency last winter, Lugo signed on with San Diego on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. After spending most of his time in Queens as a reliever, Lugo stepped into the Padres’ rotation and made 26 starts for the club last year with a 3.57 ERA (115 ERA+) and 3.83 FIP in 146 1/3 innings of work. San Diego entered the winter with just Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish locked into the 2024 rotation, and the return of Lugo would have greatly improved the club’s rotation even after the Padres managed to add Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to their Opening Day rotation mix in the Juan Soto trade.

Ultimately, of course, Lugo chose to head to Kansas City. Still, that the Padres felt they had enough room in the budget to make an offer to Lugo could be a positive sign for the club’s ability to fill the remaining holes on their roster before Opening Day. Adding at least one more starter to slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside King figures to be a priority for the Padres, particularly after they’ve addressed the bullpen by landing Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go in recent weeks. Beyond the rotation, the club’s lineup is in dire need of an overhaul after the club parted ways with Soto, Trent Grisham, and Matt Carpenter in trade this offseason. A left-handed bat such as Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario would make plenty of sense to occupy either left field or DH, and the club was also recently reported as being among the teams interested in center fielder Michael A. Taylor.

More from around the National League…

  • As the Phillies look to augment their club with pitching and outfield depth this winter, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that they’ve received interest in a package of shortstop prospect Bryan Rincon and catching prospect Eduardo Tait from at least three clubs, though Philadelphia has rebuffed the advances of rival clubs on the duo to this point. Rincon, in February, was a 14th-round pick by the Phillies in the 2022 draft and sports strong defense along with a switch-hitting bat and a 14.8% walk rate for his career in the minor leagues against a strikeout rate of just 17.8%. Tait, meanwhile, signed with the Phillies out of Panama last year and slashed an impressive .333/.400/.517 during his first taste of affiliated ball in the Dominican Summer League.
  • Among the 22 arbitration-eligible players who did not agree to a contract with his club for the 2024 season by yesterday’s deadline was Reds second baseman Jonathan India, who filed at $4MM against the club’s $3.2MM counteroffer. Reds GM Nick Krall recently spoke regarding the dispute between player and club, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. As relayed by Wittenmyer, Krall emphasized that he doesn’t consider the impending arbitration hearing to be “adversarial” and explained the $800K gap in negotiations by saying that there was a “fundamental issue” between the sides that prevented the deal from getting done. Clubs often take strict stances in arbitration negotiations because both settlements and arbitration decisions can be used as precedent for salaries not for the player in question as he advances through the arbitration process but also by future players around the league. That at times leads to tension between players and their clubs, with right-hander Corbin Burnes’s spat with the Brewers last year standing as a recent example.
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