Stark’s Latest: Zimmermann, Scherzer, Tigers
Only three free agents make Jayson Stark’s list of the top 10 players to watch during the Winter Meetings, reflecting the feeling from several baseball executives that the trade front could be much busier than the free agency front in the coming days. Jon Lester is the key domino in the process, as in the words of one NL executive, “he sets the free-agent market and kick-starts the trade market. Depending on when he signs, he could create the greatest Winter Meetings in decades or the most boring.” Here’s some more from ESPN’s Stark…
- “The most widespread front-office conspiracy theory” sees the Nationals trading Jordan Zimmermann and then signing Max Scherzer. This scenario is “so obvious it makes me question if it’s real,” one GM said. Clearly a lot of factors would have to fall into place for the Nats to pull this off, though they’re known to be listening to offers for Zimmermann, who will be a free agent after the 2015 season. Scott Boras, Scherzer’s agent, is known for waiting until deep into the offseason to find a preferred deal for his clients, which could give Washington more time to line up a Zimmermann trade.
- Beyond Zimmermann, the Nationals are also listening to offers for Ian Desmond, Doug Fister, Denard Span and Tyler Clippard. All of these players can hit free agency after 2015, making Washington the “team with the potential to make the biggest deal of the offseason. And maybe not just one,” Stark writes.
- The Tigers are “listening intently” to offers for David Price and Rick Porcello, though they’ll only deal one of the two, and Detroit would only move Price if they can re-sign Scherzer. “The Tigers have made it clear they aren’t subtracting any starting pitchers unless they have a replacement lined up,” Stark writes. I’d note that the newly-acquired Shane Greene could be such a potential replacement for Porcello, who Stark says is the more likely to be traded than Price.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has told teams interested in Cole Hamels to make an offer if they wish, but the Phils are waiting to see where the big free agent arms go before they seriously start exploring a Hamels trade. Several teams have said the Phillies’ asking price for Hamels is far too high, and one rival official tells Stark that the pitching market is too deep for the Phillies to expect both top prospects and Hamels’ entire contract to be absorbed in a deal.
- Jeff Samardzija is likelier to be dealt before Hamels, one executive predicts, since the Athletics are more aggressively shopping their right-hander. We’ve already heard that the White Sox, to name one team, have discussed a Samardzija trade with the A’s. One exec warns that the A’s could have trouble finding their desired return for Samardzija, since “it’s just hard to give up a lot of value for a one-year pitcher.”
- The Red Sox are open to trading any position player except for Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rusney Castillo and Christian Vazquez, Stark writes. It also goes without saying that David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia won’t be dealt, not to mention the newly-signed Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.
Details On The Pursuit And Signing Of Andrew Miller
Southpaw reliever Andrew Miller is headed to the Yankees. GM Brian Cashman addressed the signing in a conference call, and his comments will appear shortly in a separate post.
Here are some notable links regarding the signing:
- The Astros and Red Sox appear to have been the other finalists for Miller. Houston was in it “to the end,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. In fact, the Astros were the high bidder, and were the team that had a $40MM offer out for the lefty, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter.
- There are conflicting reports on just how high Boston was willing to go. The team made a four-year offer that Miller “strongly considered,” according to Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com. On the other hand, GM Ben Cherington left Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) with the impression that his club was not willing to bid up to the level of the Yankees and Astros, and may not have offered a fourth year. And Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald tweets that the Sox were not willing to guarantee the final year of the pact.
- UPDATE: The Red Sox were willing to go to four years at a lower AAV, with more incentives involved, per a tweet from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. And indeed a four-year offer was on the table, Cafardo tweets.
- The Dodgers were not willing to add a fourth year, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Contract length also played a role in the team’s decision not to push for Zach Duke, though Los Angeles had interest in him, Rosenthal adds.
- One reason that the Yankees upped their bid for Miller was that the team found other possible upgrades to be too expensive, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Cashman told reporters that the team added $4MM to its offer upon learning that Miller had $40MM on the table.
- In an interview with Rosenthal, Miller explained that the Yankees were able to offer a total package that no other team could. Specifically, Miller said that he placed a high value on the fact that the Yankees train in the Tampa area, where he lives. He also feels comfortable staying in the AL East. “Money wasn’t everything,” Miller explained. “The teams that negotiated with us were fully aware of that as well. In the total package, the Yankees had the best offer for me personally.” Miller added that the Astros made a very appealing overall bid.
Dodgers Claim Ryan Lavarnway, Designate Drew Butera
The Dodgers announced that they have claimed catcher Ryan Lavarnway off waivers from the Red Sox and designated fellow backstop Drew Butera for assignment (Twitter link).
The 27-year-old Lavarnway has seen MLB action in parts of four seasons with the Red Sox but failed to establish himself at the plate, having posted a combined .201/.249/.315 batting line in 301 plate appearances. Formerly ranked as a Top 100 prospect by both Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com, Lavarnway has a strong minor league track record, including a .284/.377/.448 triple-slash in 1102 Triple-A plate appearances. He comes with more upside at the plate than the defense-first, though Lavarnway has caught just 10 of 63 potential base-stealers in the Majors (16 percent) and didn’t stand out in terms of pitch-framing in his two longest Major League stints.
Butera, 31, is a glove-first catcher that has never hit much at any level and owns just a .183/.239/.268 batting line in the Majors. However, his reputation behind the plate has led to him receiving 733 plate appearances between the Twins and Dodgers (192 with L.A. in 2014) in spite of his deficiencies with the bat.
The Dodgers’ catching situation remains in flux, as the team was in hard on Russell Martin earlier this offseason and has recently been linked to Yasmani Grandal in trade rumors. A.J. Ellis typically steady bat took a large step backwards in 2014, and improving the production behind the plate appears to be a priority for the new front office regime.
Jon Lester Rumors: Thursday
Here’s the latest on Jon Lester, whose market appears to be heating up dramatically after the Dodgers joined the sweepstakes yesterday:
- The Dodgers could blow the Red Sox out of the water if they wanted to, writes Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. With their financial resources, it’s hard to outbid L.A. for a player they really want. That said, the Dodgers reportedly hired their All-Star executive team to help trim costs. Of course, a Lester signing could also serve as protection for when Zack Greinke exercises his opt out clause following the season.
- Barring any additional mystery teams, the Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants appear to be the final bidders for Lester. While the Giants tend to be viewed as an also-ran, don’t count them out, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy has met with Lester, and the club has the necessary money after missing out on Pablo Sandoval. All four clubs have a lot to offer.
- Lester is unlikely to sign prior to the Winter Meetings, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. With four clubs vying for his services, it makes sense to take time making a decision.
Andrew Miller Nearing Decision
TODAY, 7:59am: Miller is expected to make a decision today or tomorrow, an executive who had been involved with the bidding tells Sherman (Twitter link).
YESTERDAY, 10:00pm: The Astros appear unlikely to land Miller, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports.
9:40pm: New York appears to be willing to give Miller a fourth year, Heyman adds on Twitter.
8:08pm: The Yankees appear to be one of two or three finalists, Heyman writes. He says that the Dodgers seem to be back in the pack now, while the Astros remain a “possible threat.” The Red Sox, meanwhile, “seem to be out on Miller at the moment,” according to Heyman.
2:25pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Yankees do have serious interest in Miller, but their stance is much the same as it is regarding David Robertson: they’ll give three guaranteed years but are hesitant to lock in the fourth season.
1:38pm: Andrew Miller is moving closer to a contract that will guarantee him close to $40MM over a four-year term, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, and the Yankees and Dodgers are two of the teams in play. Heyman writes that the Red Sox appear to be out of the bidding at this point, and Miller could reach an agreement within the next 48 hours.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently indicated that the Red Sox are still showing strong interest, and he also listed the Astros as a club with serious interest. The 29-year-old Miller is coming off an elite season in which he posted a combined 2.02 ERA with 14.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 62 1/3 regular season innings between the Red Sox and Orioles. He added 7 1/3 scoreless frames with an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio in the postseason as well.
The proposed figures would shatter the record for a non-closing reliever. Scott Linebrink previously signed a four-year, $19MM with the White Sox, which stands out as the largest guarantee. Tim Dierkes made a fairly aggressive four-year, $32MM projection back in late October, and it seems that Miller is poised to top that number.
NL Notes: Upton, Ross, Hundley, Lackey, Cards
The Braves have already received attractive trade proposals for outfielder Justin Upton, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. With several free agents off the board, a deal could come together soon, per Sherman, possibly during the upcoming Winter Meetings. The team’s addition of free agent Nick Markakis would appear to increase the odds of the club dealing Upton and/or Evan Gattis, though its final course remains unclear.
More from the National League:
- The Braves, Cubs, and Padres are among the teams pursuing free agent catcher David Ross, along with the incumbent Red Sox, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The 37-year-old Ross rates among the game’s most respected veterans.
- The Rockies have expressed interest in free agent backstop Nick Hundley, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. Were the team to add Hundley or another option, it would likely deal Wilin Rosario, Crasnick adds.
- Though John Lackey is under contract at league minimum for 2015, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak will meet with his representatives at the upcoming Winter Meetings to discuss “possibly reworking” that deal, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports on Twitter. It is not entirely clear what manner of modification could be contemplated, though one would expect that St. Louis would only be interested in a proposal that added a reasonably priced season or two to the 36-year-old’s deal.
- The Cardinals have promoted Chris Correa to become the club’s new scouting director, Langosch reports. The club had an opening arise recently when Dan Kantrovitz left to become an assistant GM with the Athletics.
Free Agent Notes: Melky, Ervin, Headley, Miller, Soto
The Royals have reached out to a familiar name in the form of Melky Cabrera, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. It’s not clear if the Royals are able to afford Cabrera, who is said by Heyman to be seeking “at least” a five-year deal. He notes that the Reds have also contacted Cabrera’s camp. Additionally, Heyman lists the Mariners, Orioles and White Sox as speculative fits. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that the Blue Jays are still in touch with Cabrera as well. As many have pointed out, Toronto has just three outfielders on its 40-man roster at present. I profiled Cabrera in early October and projected a five-year deal worth just over $66MM.
Some more notes from the free agent market…
- Also seeking a five-year deal is right-hander Ervin Santana, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. Santana is among the best of the bunch in the second tier of free agent starters, and he’s been rumored to have mutual interest with the Royals. However, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star tweets that the Royals’ comfort level is at three years with Santana. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected a four-year, $56MM contract for Santana.
- Continuing on the theme of five-year contracts, Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York reports that the Yankees aren’t willing to give Chase Headley a five-year deal, and it’s believed by some that five years is now his asking price in the wake of both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez signing in Boston. An alternative for the Yankees, Matthews writes, is to play Martin Prado at third base regularly and give prospect Rob Refsnyder a chance to be the everyday second baseman.
- The Yankees, Red Sox and Astros are all continuing to show strong interest in free agent lefty Andrew Miller, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Miller is believed to be headed for a four-year deal, and the Astros have been somewhat surprisingly linked to him and fellow top reliever David Robertson.
- Geovany Soto is currently talking to five or six teams, tweets Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. A reunion between Soto and the Rangers is a definite possibility, per Cotillo. The free agent market for catchers has few options remaining, putting Soto in a relatively good spot.
- Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports that 10 teams, including the Tigers, have reached out to free agent righty Ronald Belisario after he was designated for assignment by the White Sox and chose to elect free agency (Twitter link). Belisario has a track record of success but struggled in 2014 despite maintaining his velocity and ground-ball rate.
- Nyjer Morgan is eyeing a return to the Majors and has drawn interest from both MLB and Asian clubs, tweets Cotillo. The 34-year-old spent a bit of time with the Indians last season but had his Cleveland tenure cut short by injury.
2014-15 American League Non-Tenders
Major League clubs have until 11pm CT tonight to tender contracts to players for the 2015 season. We’ll run down the list of American League non-tenders here, and update it as reports come in. Remember that you can track all of the action using MLBTR’s Non-Tender tracker, and we offer a full list of non-tender candidates (in the estimation of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes). Also important for reference is the set of arbitration salary projections from MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. Click here for an explanation of the process, and be sure to check out this piece featuring some interesting observations from Tim regarding non-tender considerations.
- Slade Heathcott, Jose Campos, and David Huff have all been non-tendered by the Yankees, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter.
- The Twins have tendered contracts to all arb-eligible players, per MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (Twitter link).
- Third baseman Carlos Rivero is the only non-tender for the Mariners, the club announced. Rivero was not yet arbitration eligible.
- The Astros have tendered contracts to all arb-eligible players, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports on Twitter.
- The Royals have non-tendered lefty Francisley Bueno, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports on Twitter. He was not yet eligible for arbitration.
- As expected, the Tigers have offered arbitration to all eligible players, Anthony Fench of the Detroit Free Press tweets.
- The Athletics have declined to offer arbitration to Kyle Blanks and Andrew Brown, the team announced. Both had previously been designated for assignment. Oakland will retain control over the remainder of its eligible players, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- As with several other clubs, the Rays will proceed without any non-tenders, the club announced (per a tweet from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).
- Likewise, the Orioles have tendered contracts to each of their eleven arb-eligible players, the team announced.
- The Indians have tendered contracts to all five eligible players, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Cleveland had a fairly straightforward group. Indeed, Dierkes did not list any players as reasonable NT candidates.
- Scott Snodgress and Scott Carroll have been non-tendered by the White Sox, Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com tweets. Both players were pre-arbitration eligible, meaning that Chicago could have renewed them at the MLB minimum.
- The Red Sox have non-tendered third baseman Juan Francisco but will otherwise tender contracts to all eligible players, the club announced (h/t to Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com, via Twitter). Francisco had already been designated for assignment, making this one of the day’s least surprising moves.
Trade Notes: Hamels, Fowler, Cespedes, Murphy
In the midst of a run of arbitration information, there were a few interesting reports on some trade situations percolating around the game. Let’s have a look …
- The Phillies are conducting “intensive homework” on the Dodgers‘ minor league system in anticipation of trying to work out a deal involving Cole Hamels, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. The trade market for Hamels still seems to be in a holding pattern, along with much of the rest of the non-Jon Lester pitching market.
- Dexter Fowler‘s name has come up in trade talks between the Blue Jays and Astros, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports (Twitter link). Fowler, who projects to earn $9MM through arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) in his final year of team control, would be an interesting potential add for Toronto. The 28-year-old switch-hitter is capable of playing center but could also line up in the corner. He has been a consistently solid performer at the plate, though defensive metrics have wavered on his value in the field.
- Reds GM Walt Jocketty says that his club has not discussed Yoenis Cespedes with the Red Sox, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports via Twitter. There has been some speculation recently about a possible match, fueled in part by a recent spate of rumors, but it appears that nothing is in the works in that respect.
- There has not been much of any action surrounding Daniel Murphy of the Mets, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The second baseman may have a “greater perceived value” to his current club, and their fans, than to outside entities, Sherman suggests. New York may prefer to try other means of opening payroll flexibility now, holding onto Murphy and reassessing at the trade deadline.
East Notes: Peavy, Scherzer, Miller, Mets, Rasmus
Jake Peavy acknowledges that he had an up-and-down season and tells Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com that he feels he has a lot to prove in free agency. However, the 33-year-old righty tells Crasnick that he actually enjoys the skepticism surrounding him after his struggles in Boston and in the postseason with San Francisco. “I need to have people doubting me, because that’s when you dig deep and find out what you’re made of,” Peavy explains. Crasnick spoke to a number of scouts and executives that all feel Peavy is a perfectly capable fourth starter at this point in his career, even if he’s not capable of being the ace he once was. “He’s not a No. 1 or a 2 by any stretch,” a scout tells Crasnick. “But if you have a deep team and you can give him a [Tim] Hudson type of deal and plug him into the 4 or 5 spot, I think he’s worth that.” (Hudson signed for two years and $23MM.) Crasnick hears that the Marlins have already had discussions with Peavy’s camp this offseason. Crasnick’s article has several excellent quotes from scouts and execs on Peavy’s current free agent stock and abilities on the mound.
Here’s more from baseball’s Eastern divisions…
- John Harper of the New York Daily News still isn’t convinced that the Yankees won’t make a run at Max Scherzer, and he spoke with one executive (that he describes as “friendly” with GM Brian Cashman) who shares that view. The exec noted that while Cashman would love to build from within and hates the idea of surrendering a first-round pick, turning to Scherzer and Andrew Miller while letting David Robertson sign elsewhere would net the Yankees a fairly similar selection to their No. 19 overall pick. Harper also wonders if the leak of the Yankees’ interest in Miller was, to some extent, a deliberate tactic to put extra pressure on Robertson to re-sign.
- Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the Yankees are currently more likely to sign Miller than Robertson, though he eventually notes that the Bombers haven’t ruled out signing both relievers to pair with the electric Dellin Betances as a dynamic bullpen trio. Heyman, too, notes that the Yankees likely see some merit in the idea of pursuing the slightly cheaper Miller while letting Robertson walk to earn a compensatory draft pick.
- Though much has been made about the Cubs, Rockies, D’Backs and Mariners as a potential trade partner to fill the Mets‘ hole at shortstop, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes that the Red Sox are an interesting partner as well. Prospect Deven Marrero is said to be available in trades, Martino writes, and the Red Sox have a well-documented need for starting pitching, making the two sides a good fit on paper.
- The Orioles have lost Nelson Cruz to free agency and are facing the possibility of losing Nick Markakis as well, prompting Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports to list a short-term deal with Colby Rasmus as a possibility for the O’s should Markakis land elsewhere (Twitter link).