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Anthony Rendon

What If The Mariners Had Drafted Anthony Rendon?

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It could have easily been Anthony Rendon.  The media certainly believed the Mariners would draft Rice’s star third baseman with the second overall draft pick in 2011, despite injury concerns.   Former Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik recently told Corey Brock of The Athletic, “We liked Rendon…a lot.  Going into the draft, he was probably the player a lot of people thought we were going to take…and we did, too.” 

Most observers expected the Pirates to use the first overall pick on UCLA righty Gerrit Cole, and indeed they did.  That scenario left two strong possibilities for the Mariners: Rendon, and University of Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen.  Rendon was considered by some to be the top talent in the 2011 draft even with recent ankle and shoulder injuries.  But those injuries loomed large for the Mariners, with Zduriencik telling Brock, “Anthony had some physical issues. He’d been hurt the year before and was limited somewhat. There were a few things that were concerning.”

You can debate whether it’s fair to criticize the Mariners’ choice of Hultzen in hindsight.  Zduriencik told Brock, “Danny was the guy who everyone loved. It made a lot of sense.”  But while Hultzen was by no means a reach or a bad pick at the time, he was considered the “safe” choice.  After Day 1 of the draft, Keith Law (then of ESPN) said the Mariners “shock[ed] everyone,” elaborating, “I’m not criticizing Hultzen in the least here, but I think drafting at No. 2 overall is a rare chance to go for ceiling, and the Mariners didn’t do that. They took a very safe, very good college pitcher who will move quickly but doesn’t have No. 1 starter upside.” Unfortunately, even the safest pitchers carry extreme risk, and Hultzen’s career was all but wiped out by shoulder issues.

No one could have foreseen that the draft’s best player would turn out to be Mookie Betts, as the Red Sox landed him 172nd overall.  But the draft gurus were correct on Rendon, who ultimately has been the second-most productive member of his draft class by measure of Baseball-Reference WAR.  And that was a draft that included Cole, Francisco Lindor (also of interest to the Mariners), George Springer, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, and many other excellent players.

Anthony Rendon

To the surprise of the baseball world, the Pirates, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Royals all decided to pass on Rendon.  Maybe it was the ankle and shoulder injuries, maybe it was adviser Scott Boras, but whatever the reason, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was “pleasantly surprised” when Rendon fell all the way to the sixth spot.  The Nationals went with who they considered to be the best player available, even with Ryan Zimmerman entrenched at third base.  That choice paid off in a huge way for the Nationals.  But with apologies to Mariners fans, let’s consider an alternate universe where Zduriencik called Rendon’s name instead of Hultzen’s on June 6th, 2011.

Rendon reached the Majors in 2013 and had his first highly productive season in 2014.  By that point, Kyle Seager was already established as the Mariners’ third baseman.  Seager’s 18.4 fWAR run from 2013-16 was actually much better than what Rendon did, albeit with a slightly lower ceiling.  As with the Nationals, Rendon would have likely been shifted to second base as a rookie to accommodate the incumbent third baseman.

The Mariners had used the second overall pick in the 2009 draft on Dustin Ackley, whom they decided to shift to second base the following year.  Ackley never hit like the Mariners (and everyone else) expected him to, nor did he take to playing second base, so the club gradually shifted him to the outfield starting in 2013.  Second base would have been the primary infield opening for a top prospect, since Brad Miller came up around the same time to take over at shortstop.  In real life, the Mariners had a quality middle infield prospect coming in Nick Franklin.  Franklin was capable of playing shortstop but seen as more of a second baseman.  Even with Ackley in the outfield and Miller at shortstop, Seager’s success at the hot corner would likely have left Rendon and Franklin to battle for the Mariners’ second base job as rookies in 2013.

Franklin was a top 50 prospect prior to 2013 and he had an OK showing as a rookie that year, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the Mariners from signing Robinson Cano to a franchise-altering ten-year, $240MM free agent contract that offseason.  Rendon’s real-life rookie showing was similarly mediocre, though he was more highly-regarded than Franklin.

Franklin became a popular trade chip once Cano signed in Seattle.  The Mariners ultimately parted him at the 2014 trade deadline in the deal that netted them center fielder Austin Jackson and landed David Price in Detroit.  With Cano in the fold, would the Mariners have traded Franklin, Rendon, or both?  And when?  The Mariners may have been more willing to part with at least one of them during the offseason rather than at the trade deadline, and were known to have interest in Price.

Or, would the presence of two promising second basemen have led the Mariners to spend their money elsewhere?  Though Cano was the biggest fish that winter, that was also the point where the Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury and the Rangers signed Shin-Soo Choo.  The Mariners never seemed to be in play for Ellsbury despite his Northwest roots, but Tanaka or Choo would have been viable financially if not for the Cano signing.  In the end, Cano performed well in his five seasons with the Mariners, and though they had to include Edwin Diaz and a lot of cash, Cano was part of the reason the Mets were willing to part with Jarred Kelenic in December 2018 (more on that here).  In a roundabout way, if the Mariners had drafted Rendon, they might not have Kelenic now … though they might have other appealing players instead.

If the Mariners’ hypothetical second base surplus would have prevented them from trying to upgrade the position in the 2013-14 offseason, what would have become of Cano?  A return to the Bronx was the prevailing guess in November of 2013, yet the Yankees reportedly topped out at a $175MM offer for Cano despite going on a spending spree on other players.  Would Cano have swallowed that alleged lack of respect and remained a Yankee?  Or would some other team have stepped up to fill the void?

The Dodgers sat out the Cano bidding that winter.  The Mets took a meeting with Cano’s agent Brodie Van Wagenen, their future GM, but the team might have just wanted the chance to meet Jay-Z.  Beyond the Yankees and Mariners, there was never another serious suitor for Cano that winter, at least as it was known to the public.  If somehow the hypothetical presence of Rendon would have reduced the Mariners’ interest in Cano, the logical conclusion is that he would have returned to the Yankees — at much less than $240MM.

But the Mariners went into that winter intending to make a big splash, and it’s quite possible they would have traded Franklin for pitching, kept Rendon, and signed Cano.  In reality the Cano signing mostly tapped out the Mariners’ budget, and they traded for the affordable Logan Morrison to split time at first base with Justin Smoak in 2014.  Though it would been a waste of his defensive talents, might the Mariners have found a temporary home for Rendon at first base?  The 2014 Mariners fell one win shy of a Wild Card berth, a season in which Rendon was worth 6.4 fWAR while Morrison and Smoak combined for 0.6.  It’s not too hard to picture a 2014 Mariners club with Rendon, Cano, and a pitcher acquired for Franklin overtaking the Royals in the Wild Card game and maybe even making a deep playoff run.

Even a 2014 playoff run might not have been enough to save Zduriencik’s job, given all the things that went wrong in 2015.  So even in our alternate Mariners universe, Jerry Dipoto still takes over as GM in 2015 and remakes the team in his image.  Rendon might have been enough to put the Mariners in the playoffs in 2016 and/or ’18, changing the trajectory of the franchise.  In reality, the Mariners continue to suffer through the longest postseason drought in the sport.

The implications of the Mariners choosing Hultzen over Rendon nine years ago can make your head spin, and we didn’t dive into the hypothetical consequences of the Yankees keeping Cano, the Nationals drafting someone else sixth overall, or the Diamondbacks, Orioles, or Royals drafting Hultzen instead of Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, and Bubba Starling.  Feel free to do so in the comments or let us know how you think things might have played out had the Mariners drafted Rendon.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Cubs, Bryant, Heyward, Reds, Mahle, Nationals, Castro

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The Cubs aren’t yet sure how David Ross’ style as a tactician will differ from his predecessor, but Ross’ decisions are starting to trickle in and lend some clarity to the Cubs’ 2020 season. For starters, Kris Bryant as the leadoff man does not feel like an experiment – it’s happening. Ross likes Bryant’s speed and baserunning ability, and to his credit, there’s really nothing to dislike about Bryant in the leadoff spot. It does create questions further down the order, but coming off a season in which their leadoff men were last in the league with a .294 OBP, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make, per Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. The other major decision passed down today was that Jason Heyward would remain in right field as often as possible. Given Heyward’s tremendous defensive abilities and a wRC+ that’s been at league average over the last two years, and it makes some sense to profile Heyward as a centerfielder. He’s more comfortable in right, however, and his glove does play as a genuine asset there. Let’s check in on a couple other National League clubs…

  • Tyler Mahle will be more than okay coming out of the bullpen for the Reds if that means staying in the big leagues, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In the rotation last year, Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA/4.66 FIP across 129 2/3 innings in 25 starts. According to Mahle, his biggest problem was the lack of an effective put away breaking ball, something he’s working on by adding a slider. There might be something to Mahle’s analysis, as his curveball induced a 26.6 whiff%. More to the point might be his 7.11 ERA against left-handed hitters, though it’s part and parcel of the same issue, likely.
  • Starlin Castro is energized by the opportunity to play for a contender again, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. Between the changes that Castro made to his approach in the second half of last year, and his excitement over playing in games of consequence again, the Nationals are finding reasons to believe in Castro’s potential to make up for some of the offense lost in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s departure. Castro’s a difficult player to pin down in terms of ability, but he is a four-time All-Star entering his age-30 season, and before the terms of his current two-year deal run out, he may even cross the 2,000 hit threshold.

Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

NL Notes: Cubs, Morrow, Nationals, Turner, D’Backs, Hazen, Bryant

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Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow is healthy, which has rarely been the case throughout his Cubs tenure. Morrow should be on schedule for the spring, though the Cubs are keeping open the possibility of bringing him along more slowly than the other pitchers in camp. A different schedule would be purely precautionary, however, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Morrow arrived in Chicago as the heir apparent to Wade Davis, who had been the heir apparent to Aroldis Chapman before him. When healthy, Morrow has been nothing short of elite, but after just 35 appearances in 2018 followed by an entire season in absentia, Morrow enters 2020 in no better position than the many other arms the Cubs have collected on minor league deals.

  • The Nationals are entering another year of uncertainty in their lineup. Manager Dave Martinez is weighing a move for powerful leadoff man Trea Turner into the middle of the order, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Turner certainly has enough oomph to man the middle of the order. A full season of the .298/.353/.497 line he put up last year would ably fill the 3-hole recently vacated by his bromance partner Anthony Rendon. Adam Eaton remains a viable top-of-the-order presence after putting up a .365 OBP mostly out of the 2-hole, who could presumably move up a slot into the leadoff vacancy. Putting Turner’s speed directly in front of the ever-patient and fear-inducing cleanup presence of Juan Soto might not be the most natural pairing, however. Martinez will have some big decisions to make, largely dependent upon who wins the third base job and what kind of jump Victor Robles can make at the plate.
  • In an interview with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says he doesn’t envision the team making a blockbuster deal like trading for Kris Bryant this far into the offseason. Major roster decisions have largely been made, and it’s more the time for fine-tuning. Hazen left open the possibility of adding a bullpen arm or another body for the bench, but a blockbuster is less likely. That said, the Diamondbacks never found the centerfielder they were seeking, which would push Ketel Marte back into the outfield and open starter’s minutes somewhere in the infield. The Diamondbacks have already taken more big swings this offseason than Hazen anticipated, so one more – even at this stage – can’t be entirely ruled out.

Cardinals’ Talks For Arenado “Haven’t Gone Anywhere”

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1:30pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that while the Rockies and Cardinals have indeed exchanged some names, their talks on Arenado “haven’t gone anywhere” and the exchange of names “hasn’t been productive.”

11:29am: The Rockies and Cardinals “have begun exchanging names” of players of interest as they attempt to structure a potential deal that would send third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. The Colorado organization is said to want both MLB and minor-league players to move their franchise cornerstone.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of this latest update. On the one had, it’s presented as a step forward. Morosi reported over the weekend that the sides had struck up “preliminary trade negotiations.” He now states that the chatter has “advanced beyond a preliminary stage.”

On the other, it seems hard to imagine that the sides had really been engaged in dialogue of much substance if no names of players other than Arenado even came up. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently explained, the Cards have had “longstanding interest” in Arenado but have “found the Rockies’ asking price prohibitive.” So, it would appear the sides are only now returning to a level of discussion at which they’ve previously engaged without seeing eye to eye.

The real question here remains how motivated the Rockies are about taking advantage of the opportunity to move Arenado’s contract and get something in return. If so, then perhaps it is indeed notable that they are back to swapping possible names with the Cards. It’s obviously not the Rockies’ preference to move their biggest star, but there’s huge risk in holding pat given the roster’s 2019 backslide and a slate of contractual commitments that is straining the payroll that the organization has established.

Morosi does go on to name a few names, though again it is not clear how the information is best interpreted. The Rox have both interest and some misgivings in Dakota Hudson, says Morosi, who echoes Goold’s characterization of the Cards being utterly unwilling to discuss Jack Flaherty. In addition to contemplating Hudson, who certainly has his warts but also has thrown over 200 MLB innings of 3.25 ERA ball and won’t turn 26 until September, the Rox are said to be eyeing up the Cards’ top prospects as well.

This is where the skepticism really enters the picture, because that’s quite a haul of talent. Arenado is obviously well worth it from an on-field perspective, but his contract — which, as already written to death, gives him huge downside protection ($234MM guaranteed) with the upside of opting out after 2021 — is less than a straightforward asset to price. It would be a bit odd to see the Cardinals part with that kind of surplus value for the right to take over such a deal, particularly since the team wasn’t notably connected to free agent Anthony Rendon.

Morosi’s report takes a curious turn when he gets to Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. While the highly compensated veteran is said to be under consideration in talks, Morosi writes that “the Rockies don’t appear to be mandating his inclusion.” That’s a befuddling way to characterize a 34-year-old player who just wrapped up a subpar season and is owed a hefty $39MM over the next two years (including a buyout on an option). Clearly, the Rox would rather not have that contract; Carpenter would be included to help offset the Arenado obligations.

Once more, it’s tough to know what to make of that curious bit. There’s no chance the Rockies are clamoring for Carpenter, but it’s equally true that the club wouldn’t want the deal to seem publicly like a salary dump. So, perhaps this strained characterization constitutes evidence that the Colorado organization is preparing to sell an all-but-assuredly unpopular trade to a skeptical fan base. Or maybe that’s just reading into things.

Two things seem safe to say at this point: First, that there are reasonably serious discussions involving Arenado, with the Cardinals at least one of the teams engaged with the Rockies. (The Rangers and perhaps others are also seemingly still at least kicking around the periphery.) And second, that there remain a number of significant obstacles that must still be cleared to move an Arenado trade scenario from the realm of hypothetical plausibility to one approaching actualization.

Rangers Have Interest In Nolan Arenado

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5:15PM: The Rangers’ calls about Arenado are more “due diligence” for now, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports (Twitter link), though Texas is legitimately interested in the third baseman.

4:21PM: The Rangers missed out on Anthony Rendon, and reportedly have stepped back from the race to sign Josh Donaldson.  However, Texas is still on the lookout for a big-ticket addition at third base, and the club has been in talks with the Rockies about Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required).

Texas isn’t the only interested party, as the Rockies have spoken to multiple teams about Arenado’s services.  While the Cardinals and Dodgers aren’t specifically cited as two of those other clubs, Rosenthal notes that St. Louis and Los Angeles each “have a longstanding interest in Arenado,” though the Dodgers are doubtful that Arenado would be sent to one of Colorado’s division rivals.

Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has unofficially confirmed that he has been listening to offers for Arenado, though of course, that is markedly different from actively exploring trades of the franchise player.  As Rosenthal observes, “many in the industry are skeptical it [an Arenado trade] will happen this offseason” due to several complicating elements — Arenado has a full no-trade clause, he is owed $234MM over through the 2026 season, and Arenado has the right to opt out of that deal following the 2021 campaign.

It doesn’t make for a long list of teams that could potentially fit as a trade partner, especially since “Arenado effectively controls the process” via his no-trade clause.  It can’t hurt for Bridich to listen to offers for the sake of due diligence, especially since the third base market will shift again once Donaldson comes off the board.

In the Rangers’ case, much of their offseason work has been focused on upgrading their pitching staff, adding Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, and Jordan Lyles to join incumbents Mike Minor and Lance Lynn.  More work still needs to be done on the position player side, however, and Texas has created some room by moving Nomar Mazara and Delino DeShields from its crowded outfield mix.  If the Rangers are indeed no longer pursuing Donaldson, it stands to reason that they could be looking for a lower-key solution at third base (an in-house option like Nick Solak or a stopgap free agent) and instead be looking to spend on another outfield bat.  Nicholas Castellanos is reportedly been on the Rangers’ list of targets, and the team also had interest in Marcell Ozuna earlier in the offseason.

Rangers Notes: Globe Life Field, Rendon, Rodriguez

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We’ll check in on some news coming out Arlington over the past 24 hours.

  • Globe Life Field, the new ballpark slated to open in 2020, caught fire yesterday afternoon (reported with video by Anthony Andro). Fortunately, no one was injured, relays Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, who notes that the blaze was quickly contained by the Arlington Fire Department. A team spokesperson confirmed to Wilson that work will continue on the facility while an investigation into the fire’s cause is underway. Globe Life Field is slated to host its first exhibition game March 23. Texas’ regular-season home opener is March 31. Whether the incident will delay completion of the facility is not yet clear.
  • Texas put forth a six-year, $192MM offer to Anthony Rendon, which fell well shy of the seven-year, $245MM bid that wooed him to Anaheim. That figure, though, may not have been as high as Texas was willing to go for the superstar third baseman. The club viewed their $192MM proposal as a “starting point,” per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, but Rendon’s camp seemingly never reengaged with them before he signed with the Angels. Whether and to what extent the Rangers would have gone further is unclear.
  • Having missed out on Rendon and seemingly not in play for Josh Donaldson, the Rangers may now pivot to the trade market to address holes on the roster, Grant further reports. Among those drawing interest from other teams are catching prospect Sam Huff and reliever Emmanuel Clase, in addition to the previously-reported José LeClerc.
  • Rendon pursuit notwithstanding, the Rangers didn’t come away from San Diego empty-handed. One executive tells the Athletic’s Peter Gammons (via Twitter) that Texas’ signing of left-handed reliever Joely Rodríguez to a two-year, $5MM deal was “the most underrated move of the Winter Meetings.” Rodríguez hasn’t had much success in affiliated ball, but he thrived in Japan, working to a 1.85 ERA with a 103:28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87.2 innings in NPB. Interestingly, Gammons notes that Rodríguez is now reportedly sporting a 97-99 MPH fastball. In his most recent MLB action, he averaged just 94.07 MPH on his four-seamer, per Brooks Baseball.

Latest On Angels’ Pitching Pursuits

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Saturday brought a celebratory mood to Anaheim, as the Angels conducted a press conference welcoming their newest second-best player, Anthony Rendon. While the presser included several interesting quotes on the part of Rendon–including his preference for Anaheim over LA due to its family-oriented atmosphere–the most interesting takeaway from the day may have been GM Billy Eppler’s statements indicating that the club remains “actively engaged” in the market for pitching. Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register passes along Eppler’s quotes, which indicate that Rendon’s signing will not preclude the club from going after impact pitching.

“We will continue to look at pitching,” Eppler is quoted as saying in Fletcher’s article. “I’m still actively engaged in that marketplace.” Eppler allowed that the club could have payroll space for two possible pitching acquisitions. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, and Dallas Keuchel represent the high-end remaining options on the open market, and we’ve already heard the club connected to Indians hurler Corey Kluber today–even if a later report characterized the Halos as “out” in the Kluber trade race.

Regarding the trade market on pitching in general, Eppler said that asking prices are a bit too aggressive for LA’s liking at the moment. “The prices are a little rich right now,” Eppler said of the market. “I’m not sure I’m going to engage at the level clubs are asking right now, but I know I can play if I want to.” As for whether the free agent options available will prove too rich as well, we’ve already heard that Bumgarner is seeking to surpass the nine-figure mark with his next contract, although price estimates have been murkier in regard to Ryu and Keuchel. But Ryu’s old team, the Dodgers, don’t seem to be chomping at the bit at this stage to retain the Korean lefty–perhaps the chance to draw away both Rendon and Ryu from their rivals to the north would be an added delight for Eppler and Co.

As for the added appeal Rendon represents for Anaheim as a free agent destination, agent Scott Boras opined that the third baseman “absolutely” makes the Angels a more desirable club for pitchers–a statement noteworthy in that Boras represents both Keuchel and Ryu. “I think the Angels, in the pitching community, are viewed as a team that is very different than the team that entered the offseason,” Boras said. “No question.” As it stands now, the club projects to enter 2020 with Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria, Shohei Ohtani, and the recently acquired Dylan Bundy as starting pitching options.

Rangers Notes: Rendon Offer, Lyles

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The Rangers were in on free agent Anthony Rendon to the tune of $32MM per year for six years, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. The total 6-year, $192MM package landed a year and $53MM short of the winning bid. Heyman points out that the lack of an income tax in Texas put the dollar value of the Rangers’ offer more-or-less in-line with the contract Rendon ultimately signed. The extra year made the difference for both player and team in this case. Rendon will turn 37-years-old in June of his seventh contract year with the Angels.

Though they’ve yet to land a big bat (and reportedly will not push to sign Josh Donaldson), the Rangers have made strides to improve their rotation with the additions of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. While reliable rotation arms don’t equate to a star signing like Rendon, for the Rangers, they are critical additions. Of course, part of this gambit assumes Lyles pitches more like he did in Milwaukee (2.45 ERA) and less like he did in Pittsburgh (5.36 ERA).

The sky is the ceiling when pitchers switch teams nowadays, however, as the reworking of arsenals and usage patterns has rapidly become the norm. For Lyles, much of the improvement his experienced in Milwaukee can be attributed to moving from a sinker to a four-seamer and swapping out a slider for a curveball, per Evan Grant of the Dallas News. The Rangers also see Lyles as a sort of developmental descendent of Lance Lynn, who made a similar switch to a four-seamer in Texas. The Rangers believe Lynn will be a positive influence for Lyles as he tries to perform with more consistency.

For his part, Lyles credits the urgency of a playoff push and his chemistry with catcher Yasmani Grandal as a driving factor of his late-season success. The Rangers’ catching situation is far from settled, with Jeff Mathis the closest defensive equivalent to Grandal in terms of pedigree. It will be an uphill battle for the Rangers’ to put themselves in the playoff race, though Gibson and Lyles raising the floor of the rotation goes a long way to fixing the issues of 2019. Still, the Astros, A’s, and Angels are all pushing for contention, while the Mariners are gearing up for a push in 2021.

Angels Sign Anthony Rendon

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FRIDAY: The signing is now official, per an announcement from the Angels.

WEDNESDAY: Yet another superstar free agent has come off the board in what has turned into the fastest-moving offseason in recent memory. The Angels reached a seven-year, $245MM agreement with free-agent third baseman Anthony Rendon on Wednesday, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The deal includes a full no-trade clause, but there are no opt-outs, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The contract doesn’t include any deferrals, according to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that it’s “slightly” backloaded. The value checks in just above the seven-year, $235MM prediction MLBTR made for Rendon entering the offseason.

Rendon’s the third Scott Boras client to land a $200MM-plus contract this week. He, Gerrit Cole ($324MM) and Stephen Strasburg ($245MM) will combine for a jaw-dropping $814MM in guarantees. Rendon’s now leaving Strasburg and the Nationals, with whom he won a World Series in 2019. Despite the Nationals’ deep pockets, though, owner Mark Lerner expressed doubt last week about the team’s chances of re-signing both of its marquee free agents. Once Strasburg re-signed, the likelihood was that Rendon would leave.

Other teams, including the Dodgers and Rangers, aggressively pursued Rendon over the past few days. However, he has chosen to team with the game’s foremost player, Angels center fielder Mike Trout, to make up one of the premier tandems in baseball. At $35MM per season, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Rendon is now second only to Trout in average annual value for position players.

Rendon earned his enormous payday – one that outdoes the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado signed last winter – with a superb tenure in Washington. The 2011 sixth overall pick debuted two years later and proceeded to post four seasons with upward of 6.0 fWAR as a member of the Nationals. Somehow, though, he didn’t earn an All-Star nod until 2019. That will go down as his best and most memorable Nats campaign, as he slashed a remarkable .319/.412/.598 with a personal-high 34 home runs and a career-best 7.0 fWAR during the regular season. Rendon carried his excellence into the postseason, where he was an integral part of the team’s improbable run to a championship. On the game’s biggest stage, Rendon logged a 1.003 OPS with three homers. His Game 7 World Series HR against the Astros woke up the Nationals in the seventh inning, helping lead to a title-winning comeback.

As was the case when outfielder Bryce Harper left D.C. to accept the Phillies’ mega-offer last winter, Rendon’s departure no doubt stings for the Nationals. If it’s any consolation to the club, though, it will receive some compensation for his exit because it issued him a qualifying offer after the season. The Nats will collect a 2020 draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3. They now figure to turn their attention toward replacing Rendon at third base, where they’ve been connected to Josh Donaldson – now the No. 1 free agent left in an ever-shrinking marketplace. They’ll have plenty of competition in that regard, though, with various reports linking the Rangers, Dodgers, Phillies, Twins and Braves to Donaldson.

The Angels, meanwhile, will surrender their second-highest pick next year and lose $500K of their international bonus pool for adding Rendon. But that’s a small price to pay for the Halos, a team desperately seeking a return to the playoffs after five straight failed seasons. Owner Arte Moreno and general manager Billy Eppler entered the offseason looking to make an enormous splash, evidenced previously by their interest in Cole, Strasburg, Donaldson and now-Phillie Zack Wheeler, and they pulled it off by reeling in Rendon.

With Rendon, Trout, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, second baseman David Fletcher, left fielder Justin Upton and designated hitter/right-hander Shohei Ohtani making up the majority of their lineup, the Angels have a strong core of hitters in place. However, there remain obvious need areas on the club, including in its rotation (which should benefit from Ohtani’s return from Tommy John surgery and the acquisition of Dylan Bundy) and at catcher.

The Angels still seem poised to patch both of those holes, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (Twitter links) that they remain focused on finding “significant” starting help and adding a new backstop. Even with Rendon’s salary factored in, the Angels appear to have the money to pick up at least one more high-end contributor and stay under the $208MM luxury-tax line in 2020, with Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimating their current CBT payroll at $177MM-plus.

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