Notable International Prospect Signings
With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).
We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.
Onto some of the more notable signings…
Injury Notes: Tommy John Surgeries, Sanchez, Thornburg, Sandoval
Tommy John surgeries have become alarmingly common in today’s baseball climate, but the most disturbing trend is the age at which the bulk of these procedures are performed. Craig Davis of the Sun Sentinel sheds some spotlight on a recent study showing that teens between the ages of 15 and 19 account for 75% of all Tommy John surgeries. Davis cites the words of Dr. Tommy John (son of the former major league pitcher and the procedure’s namesake), who bluntly says, “The success rate after Tommy John surgery is not good. You don’t want this surgery, especially if you have it in your teenage years.” One possible reason for the dramatic increase in youth Tommy John surgeries is single-sport specialization; Dr. Randolph Cohen of Joe DiMaggio Children’s Hospital in Hollywood seems to believe it’s a big issue. “There’s an overall kind of irrational push by parents on children who are playing sports for such long hours and such long durations and such great repetition that we’re seeing an increase in the injuries in children than say we saw 20 years ago, where injuries like that were much more rare,” he said.
A few injury-related notes from around major-league baseball…
- Though injured Yankees star Gary Sanchez hasn’t begun running drills yet, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that his recovery is going well. The Bombers are apparently hopeful he’ll be able to return around the All-Star break. Though he’s currently batting below the Mendoza line, the young Sanchez leads all MLB catchers with 14 homers to this point in the season.
- The Red Sox are set to add a valuable reliever even before the July 31st trade deadline hits, as Chris Cotillo of masslive.com reports that Tyler Thornburg is expected to return to the club this week. The 29-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in a game for the Red Sox since being acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Travis Shaw and a pair of minor-leaguers. There wouldn’t appear to be a great chance of salvaging the trade at this point, but if Thornburg can return to post something close to the 2.15 ERA and 12.06 K/9 he posted with Milwaukee back in 2016, he could be of great help to an already-strong bridge to Craig Kimbrel.
- The Giants got some good news today, as it appears Pablo Sandoval has avoided any serious injury. Panda’s x-rays showed no fractures (according to a tweet from Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic), so his diagnosis is simply an elbow contusion after being hit by a Zack Godley pitch during today’s matchup against the Diamondbacks.
Latest On Manny Machado
Manny Machado will be the most oft-discussed player in baseball from now until the point that he’s ultimately traded, and Orioles general manager Dan Duquette said for the second time this month that interest in the free-agent-to-be is greater than it was when the O’s made him available in the offseason (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).
“There are some teams that are in the market for help on the left side of the infield and some are looking for a shortstop and some are looking for a third baseman,” said Duquette. The asking price on Machado, of course, figures to be fairly steep — and the sheer volume of teams who could show interest can only help the Orioles. Kubatko notes that controllable starting pitching is a known priority for the Orioles, as is finding a potential replacement for Machado.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that, among the teams with interest in Machado, the Dodgers are perceived by some in the industry as the favorites to land Machado. Los Angeles has gone 26-10 to surge back up the ranks in the National League West, and they’ve done so without the benefit of star young shortstop Corey Seager, whose season ended back in May when he required Tommy John surgery. Machado could step into that void, of course, and provide a massive upgrade at the plate while freeing Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez to bounce around the diamond.
Per Nightengale, the O’s have placed a heavy focus on scouting the Dodgers’ minor league system. However, there are numerous other clubs at least keeping tabs on Machado, per the report, including the Phillies, the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals. There’s also industry speculation that the NL Central-leading Brewers could jump into the mix, given their aggressive offseason, an expected tight race in the division and the struggles of Orlando Arcia. And, of course, other clubs could yet emerge as potential suitors. The Angels, for instance, learned today that they’ve likely lost Zack Cozart for the rest of the year due to a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will require surgery.
One of those clubs, the Diamondbacks, has a particularly compelling case to add Machado to its ranks, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic explores. With A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin up for free agency following the season and Paul Goldschmidt only controlled through 2019, Piecoro argues that the Diamondbacks will never have a better chance to win with this core of players than they do right now. The front office has already been aggressive in acquiring Brad Boxberger, Jon Jay and Steven Souza Jr. (even if that move has yet to pay dividends), and it would indeed seem curious to take the metaphorical foot off the gas pedal now.
The Machado sweepstakes, clearly, will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow this summer and again in free agency. There’s no clear timetable for when a trade might come together, but Duquette didn’t mince words when acknowledging that his club has “declared as sellers” and suggesting that there’s a “more defined” market for Machado this time around. Nightengale does note, though, that one Orioles exec predicted that based on the manner in which the market is coming together, it’s possible that Machado could be moved before the All-Star break.
NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich
There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).
Here’s more from the National League:
- Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta‘s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
- The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
- Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.
Diamondbacks To Activate Robbie Ray; Latest On Pollock, Souza
The Diamondbacks have seen some positive developments in a variety of health situations. After activating Shelby Miller earlier today, the club decided it’ll also activate fellow starter Robbie Ray on Wednesday, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports (Twitter links).
Ray, who is coming off of an outstanding 2017 season, hit the shelf with an oblique strain after six outings this year. He was due to make at least one more rehab start before returning, but evidently feels good enough to jump into the MLB rotation. As Buchanan notes, Ray’s pitch count will likely be limited a bit for at least his first start back.
There’s good news in the outfield, too. Steven Souza Jr. is set to begin a rehab assignment, though he’ll initially work only as a designated hitter as he is still building up his throwing ability. Souza’s pectoral injury has limited him to just 14 games this season, his first with Arizona.
Even more importantly, perhaps, center fielder A.J. Pollock has finally resumed baseball activities. Pollock has been sidelined since mid-May with a broken thumb, which has healed a bit more slowly than the team surely preferred. If he can avoid any setbacks, though, perhaps it won’t be too long before Pollock is able to provide a major boost to the Snakes’ lineup.
Despite these significant injuries, the Snakes have managed to keep winning games. After a lull, the club has bounced back and kept its edge in the NL West. The D-Backs will surely need all hands on deck to hold off the Dodgers and other division contenders over the second half of the season.
D-backs Activate Miller, Place Buchholz On DL, Release Crichton
The D-backs announced a series of roster moves Monday, activating right-hander Shelby Miller from the 60-day disabled list, placing fellow righty Clay Buchholz on the 10-day disabled list due to a strained left oblique muscle and releasing right-hander Stefan Crichton, who’d been on the minor league disabled list due to a shoulder injury.
For Miller, this will mark his return from a 14-month absence due to Tommy John surgery. He ramped up for his return with four minor league rehab starts between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, working to a combined 4.66 ERA with a much more impressive 28-to-6 K/BB ratio.
While Miller’s first season with the D-backs following the infamous Ender Inciarte/Dansby Swanson trade was an unequivocal disappointment, the righty was displaying some signs of a rebound last season at the time of his injury. Miller only made four starts last season and pitched just 22 innings, but he notched a solid 4.09 ERA with 20 strikeouts against 11 unintentional walks. More heartening, perhaps, was the fact that the lost life on his fastball had been rediscovered; after averaging a career-low 93 mph on his heater in 2016, he averaged 94.9 mph in 2017 prior to undergoing surgery.
[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks depth chart]
Miller’s return could prove to be critical for a D-backs rotation that has lost Taijuan Walker for the season and is currently without left-hander Robbie Ray (who, like Buchholz, is dealing with an oblique injury). Ray is on a minor league rehab assignment right now, and a starting five that includes him, Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin, Zack Godley and a healthy Miller could prove formidable if Miller is closer to the pitcher who notched a 3.57 FIP in 2017 than he is to his 2016 form (6.15 ERA, 4.87 FIP).
Buccholz’s injury is hardly insignificant itself. After the Royals decided not to give him a look in the Majors earlier this year, he signed a minor league pact with the D-backs and has been something of a savior to their injury-plagued staff. Through seven starts and a total of 38 2/3 innings, Buchholz has compiled an outstanding 2.56 ERA with a 31-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate.
As for Crichton, the D-backs acquired him back on April 2, sending a player to be named later or cash to the Orioles. He ultimately never pitched in the Majors for the D-backs, and he was hit exceptionally hard in Triple-A before landing on the disabled list. In 16 innings there, Crichton logged a disastrous 10.13 RA with 17 strikeouts against eight unintentional walks and four home runs. That said, the 26-year-old was nothing short of excellent in Triple-A last year. In 47 2/3 there last season, a healthier Crichton notched a tidy 3.02 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9.
Trade Chatter: Machado, Tepera, Braves, Padres
The Diamondbacks have once again checked in with the Orioles on Manny Machado, primarily as a matter of due diligence, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. There’s little surprise there, given that the Snakes were oft-linked to Machado in the offseason and were reportedly one of the more interested parties in obtaining his services. Beyond that, Arizona has received limited offensive contributions from both the third base (.216/.313/.394) and shortstop (.232/.296/.442) positions so far in 2018. The D-backs are currently hanging onto a 1.5 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West, and adding someone of Machado’s caliber would be reminiscent of last season’s J.D. Martinez acquisition, though Machado has more defensive value even with poor ratings at shortstop so far in 2018.
More trade talk from around the league…
- Morosi also tweets that Blue Jays righty Ryan Tepera is generating trade interest. It stands to reason that virtually every player of even modest value on Toronto’s roster will draw inquiries, of course, considering that the team is 16 games out of first place in the AL East and is facing a similarly bleak outlook in the Wild Card standings. Morosi notes Tepera’s career-best K/9 rate in 2018, though in this instance, that hardly seems like a reason to expect his value to increase; Tepera’s 9.5 K/9 mark is only nominally higher than last year’s 9.4 K/9, and his overall 26.8 strikeout percentage compares favorably to last year’s 25.4 percent mark. Tepera has made modest gains across the board in terms of fastball velocity (95.3 mph), swinging-strike rate (13.9 percent) and chase rate (34.2 percent), but his greater appeal is simply one of club control. He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and controlled cheaply through the 2021 season. Tepera will turn 31 this winter, which won’t enhance his appeal, but he’s a hard-thrower with a 3.27 ERA and 137 strikeouts against 51 walks in his past 132 MLB innings.
- The Braves didn’t make a strong effort to acquire Kelvin Herrera before he was traded to the division-rival Nationals, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. While the Atlanta front office liked Herrera’s arm very much, O’Brien notes that assuming his remaining $4.4MM salary (which the Nats were willing to do) would’ve burned through the majority of the funds the team has available to upgrade via trade this summer. That would seem to suggest that the Braves may struggle to land any big-budget players as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. Certainly, given the team’s place atop the NL East standings, they’ll look to improve to whatever extent possible, but it appears that finances will be a fairly notable factor in any moves the team does make.
- There’s a widespread expectation that the Padres will sell some pieces this summer, but Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link) takes a deeper look at a factor that could push the Friars into activity: the Rule 5 Draft. San Diego has more than a dozen prospects who’ll be Rule 5 eligible this offseason, Lin observes, which could create further motivation to open some spots on the 40-man by moving assets that are controlled beyond the 2018 season. Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen all fit that bill and have all already drawn trade interest, Lin writes, and the Padres could also shop outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Travis Jankowski to other clubs as well. Lin speaks with general manager A.J. Preller at length about the upcoming roster crunch in a thorough look at some of the decisions the club will face in the not-too-distant future.
NL West Notes: Pollock, Miller, Hand, Kershaw, Cingrani
Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock is not healing quite as quickly as might have been hoped, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports, though there has been some progress made. Given that he still hasn’t been cleared to swing, and will need some time on rehab assignment thereafter, it seems reasonable now to expect that Pollock won’t return until some time in early-to-mid-July. He’s set for a CT scan Monday. The slow progress, clearly, is not great news for the Snakes, though the club has halted an earlier slide in the standings. and played better baseball of late. They’re currently leading a resurgent Dodgers club by 1.5 games for the division lead.
Here’s more from Arizona and the rest of the NL West:
- As Piecoro further covers (both in that article and on Twitter), it seems that D-backs righty Shelby Miller is nearly ready to be activated from the 60-day DL. He has managed only a 4.66 ERA in four rehab outings, but is carrying an excellent 28:6 K/B ratio over his 19 1/3 minor-league frames thus far. Miller isn’t listed as one of the four starting pitchers for the upcoming weekend series against the Pirates, however, and manager Torey Lovullo didn’t provide an update on what is next for the right-hander just yet. Fellow righty Matt Koch allowed at least five runs for the fourth time in seven starts last night, though, so logically speaking, the D-backs could bump him from the starting five to accommodate Miller’s return.
- Much as we’ve heard in prior periods of trade interest, the Padres seem disinclined to offer up closer Brad Hand for less than a compelling return. Per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, via Twitter, the “likely asking price” on Hand will be a “young everyday player.” Morosi gives the example of Rafael Devers, should the Red Sox come calling, but there’s no evident reason to read that as more than a hypothetical. If anything, it seems the report stands for the proposition that the Friars are not going to be particularly amenable to considering packages consisting of multiple, far-off prospects. We recently rated Hand as one of the top ten players to watch at the trade deadline, but noted that the San Diego organization has little reason to simply take what it can get for a player who is under affordable control for a few more seasons after signing an appealingly priced extension over the winter.
- Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is slated to return after one single rehab start, manager Dave Roberts told reporters, including Ken Gurnick of MLB.com (via Twitter). There’s more uncertainty surrounding Kershaw than ever before, just as he prepares for an offseason decision as to whether to opt out of the $65MM guarantee left on his contract, as Tim Dierkes discussed in his latest version of MLBTR’s 2018-19 free agent power rankings. Whatever Kershaw ultimately decides — to head onto the open market, work something else out with the Dodgers, or simply not opt out — will be dictated in no small part by his health the rest of the way. His showing over the next few weeks will also have a major influence over the club’s deadline efforts.
- Meanwhile, there’s less promising news on Dodgers lefty Tony Cingrani, also via Gurnick (on Twitter). Cingrani felt something in his shoulder last week and has had his rehab efforts slowed down for the time being. There’s no timetable on his return to the L.A. bullpen, creating even further uncertainty on the Dodgers’ pitching staff. Cingrani was lights-out for the Dodgers following a trade from the Reds last season, and while he’s been less effective thus far in 2018, his overall body of work since donning Dodger Blue has resulted in a 3.89 ERA and an impressive 64-to-12 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 innings.
Quick Hits: Kikuchi, Sugano, BoSox, JBJ, Rangers, D-backs
Japanese starting pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Tomoyuki Sugano have been garnering attention from major league scouts, according to Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Several teams sent representatives to see the left-handed Kikuchi (Seibu Lions) and the right-handed Sugano (Yomiuri Giants) square off last Friday. The belief is that the 26-year-old Kikuchi will be the first of the pair to immigrate to the majors, perhaps as early as the upcoming offseason, per Coskrey. Notably, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported in March that Kikuchi could end up with a contract in the $100MM vicinity if he does head to North America. Kikuchi would be posted, whereas Sugano may have to wait until he becomes an international free agent in 2021 because Yomiuri doesn’t post players, Coskrey explains. By then, he’ll be 32.
Here’s more from around the game:
- In the event the Red Sox upgrade their offense this summer, it will probably come at center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s expense, Chad Jennings of The Athletic writes (subscription required). For the most part, Boston’s offense is well positioned, Jennings observes, but Bradley hasn’t helped matters with a .184/.280/.301 line in 236 plate appearances. Barring a turnaround, then, he may be head to the bench or even another team via trade. Speculatively, the Red Sox could seek a solid-hitting corner outfielder on the market and have left fielder Andrew Benintendi take over for JBJ in center.
- The Rangers’ Jurickson Profar has easily outperformed teammate Rougned Odor this year. Despite that, the Rangers’ second base job will continue to belong to Odor, in part because of his contract, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram. Odor still has four and a half years remaining on the six-year, $49.5MM guarantee he landed prior to 2017, and because of that, it seems Texas would rather have him try to figure things out as its starting second baseman than on its bench or in the minors. That’s not to suggest Odor will keep Profar off the diamond, though, as manager Jeff Banister said that the latter could see action five times a week at second, third and short. Profar may even emerge as the Rangers’ full-time shortstop in 2019 if Elvis Andrus opts out of his contract after this season and leaves as a free agent, Wilson points out.
- Both Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. and right-hander Shelby Miller are progressing in their injury recoveries, according to Richard Morin of AZCentral.com. Souza, out since May 22 with a strained right pectoral, is close to embarking on a rehab assignment. And Miller, who’s working back from May 2017 Tommy John surgery, looked great in his fourth rehab appearance Saturday. Pitching at the Single-A level, Miller threw 81 pitches and struck out 10 (with just three hits allowed and no walks) over 6 1/3 innings. He also saw his fastball top out at 95 mph. It’s not yet clear whether Miller will make another rehab appearance, nor is it known if he’ll work as a starter or in relief upon his return to the majors, manager Torey Lovullo suggested. Regardless, the D-backs are “very encouraged” by his progress, Lovullo said.
Diamondbacks Notes: Lackey, Shipley, Souza
The Diamondbacks made a minor league offer to right-hander John Lackey this offseason, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but the veteran righty passed on the opportunity. Coincidentally, Lackey’s friend and former teammate, Clay Buchholz, ultimately wound up in the D-backs organization on a similar deal and is now thriving in a rotation that has been hit hard by injuries. “I don’t bring that up to him now,” joked Buchholz, who still keeps in touch with Lackey, “because he’s a lot bigger than me. I don’t want to make him mad. But Lackey is a bulldog. I fully expect him to be with some club at some point this year. I know for a fact that he still works out and keeps his body ready.” Both Lackey and Buchholz, of course, are known commodities to D-backs GM Mike Hazen and assistant GMs Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter, each of whom has previously worked in the Boston front office.
More out of Arizona…
- Braden Shipley is being asked to work as a reliever for the time being, writes Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link), but the organization hasn’t closed the door on him as a rotation option. Shipley had actually been set to step into the rotation last month when an elbow injury sent him to the disabled list. In the interim, Buccholz stepped up and seized that spot, however. Shipley acknowledged some frustration at how the scenario unfolded, though he took a positive approach to his new role, viewing it as a chance to ease up on his arm and get some experience at the big league level before hopefully getting another starting opportunity down the line. A former first-round pick, Shipley has just a 5.23 ERA in 98 Major League innings, though the 26-year-old is still just two years removed from ranking among the game’s top 100 prospects and could yet thrive in the big leagues — especially in a new role.
- Steven Souza Jr. began a throwing program Wednesday as he works back from a recurrence of the pectoral injury he incurred during Spring Training, writes Katherine Fitzgerald of the Arizona Republic. Souza threw from 45 feet today and will play catch again Friday before a Monday MRI to determine the progress he’s made in his recovery. He’ll return to a different outfield mix than the one he left, of course, as the Snakes have since acquired Jon Jay in a trade with the Royals. The presence of Souza, Jay, David Peralta, Jarrod Dyson, Chris Owings and, eventually, a healthy A.J. Pollock will lead to some decisions for the D-backs, although that’s a theoretical situation that may or may not present itself, depending on the health of that group as a whole.