Minor Moves: Braves Select Tony Sanchez’ Contract
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league.
- The Braves announced today that they selected the contract of catcher Tony Sanchez. It’s been an eventful few weeks for Sanchez — at the end of August, he headed from the Angels to the Braves in the Brandon Phillips swap, then spent less than two weeks on the Braves’ roster (striking out in his only plate appearance) before being outrighted. The Braves didn’t call on him while Tyler Flowers was out for a week with a bruised hand, but now Flowers is back and available, and Sanchez is as well. It seems unlikely Sanchez will play much with Flowers, Kurt Suzuki and David Freitas all available, and after a season in which Sanchez batted .272/.355/.374 in the minors, he seems like a good bet to come off the Braves’ 40-man when the season ends. Once the fourth overall pick in the draft, the 29-year-old Sanchez has now played for four organizations in the last two seasons.
Coppolella On Snitker, Acuna, Dickey, Flowers, 2018 Plans
Here’s the latest from out of Atlanta, via a highly informative column from Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
- The Braves are “believed to be leaning toward” keeping Brian Snitker to manage in 2018, Bradley writes. Snitker met with Braves brass yesterday. While the team hasn’t made a final decision, and while it seems likely the team will make coaching changes even if it doesn’t dismiss its manager, GM John Coppolella characterizes the meeting as a “productive” one. Snitker’s status has been a subject of speculation over the last week, as it has looked at various points like the Braves could aim to replace Snitker with special assistant Bo Porter or third base coach Ron Washington, both of whom have MLB managerial experience. The Braves have an option on Snitker’s services for 2018.
- Looking forward to 2018, Coppolella believes the Braves will get younger. “We’ve got arguably the best prospect in the game (Ronald Acuna) pushing his way up to Atlanta. He’s going to be given every opportunity in Spring Training,” Coppolella says. “When he’s ready, nobody’s going to stand in his way. I said the same thing about Ozzie Albies this spring, and it’s the same way.” Elsewhere, Coppolella notes that it’s possible the team could trade Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis to clear space, although that acknowledgement seems to have come in response to a direct question from Bradley.
- Coppolella says the team “needs to make a decision” on R.A. Dickey‘s club option for 2018. Other than that, the team “won’t be playing in big free-agent pitching waters,” preferring instead to give opportunities to younger pitchers. Dickey’s option is worth $8MM or a $500K buyout. He’s posted a 4.32 ERA, 6.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 while eating 183 1/3 innings this season and would seem to be an asset at that price, although he’ll turn 43 next month. Dickey’s option is a team option, although Coppolella notes that Dickey too “needs to make a decision on whether he’s coming back,” perhaps referring to the possibility Dickey could retire. (About 70% of MLBTR readers believe the Braves should exercise Dickey’s option, via a recent poll by Jeff Todd.)
- The Braves’ biggest priority this winter will be relief pitching Coppolella says. The team will look for one reliever or “preferably two.” The Braves’ bullpen’s 4.62 ERA this season has ranked fourth worst in the Majors.
- The Braves have already extended Kurt Suzuki, and Coppolella repeats they’re likely to exercise fellow catcher Tyler Flowers‘ $4MM option as well (rather than paying him a $300K buyout). That the Braves would plan to exercise such a cheap option comes as little surprise after Flowers’ strong .286/.378/.445 season. Also unsurprisingly, Coppolella indicates that he’s happy about the Braves’ catcher position for 2018.
- The Braves, of course, haven’t contended in 2017, although with 70 wins, they’re already topped their 2016 total. “We’re going from 67 wins to 68 wins to 70-something wins,” says Coppolella, who emphasizes the contributions of young players (including, one assumes, rookies like Albies, Johan Camargo and Sean Newcomb, along with even newer arrivals like September callup Luiz Gohara). “We’re seeing us do it with young players. A big point for me is that you’re not seeing starts go to Joel De La Cruz. You’re not seeing innings go to Jake Brigham or Ryan Kelly. We’re doing it with kids.”
NL East Notes: Conforto, Harper, Braves
The latest from the NL East:
- Mets outfielder Michael Conforto suggested Saturday that he’s unsure if he’ll be able to slot into the team’s lineup on Opening Day next year, according to James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter link). Conforto suffered a torn capsule in his left shoulder in late August, ending his season, and then underwent surgery earlier this month. The 24-year-old noted that the procedure should help stave off future shoulder dislocations, which would certainly be optimal for him and the Mets. Conforto emerged as a breakout performer and one of the few bright spots for the woebegone Mets before the injury, hitting .279/.384/.555 with 27 home runs in 440 plate appearances. Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said on the heels of Conforto’s surgery that the club’s optimistic he won’t have to alter his swing upon returning. He’s roughly six months away from resuming baseball activities.
- Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper is “very close” to making his highly anticipated return, manager Dusty Baker told Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com and other reporters Saturday. Harper, out since Aug. 13 with injuries to his left knee and calf, could be back in Washington’s lineup as early as Monday, per Zuckerman. That would give the superstar a week to readjust to game action before the Nationals’ NLDS matchup against a to-be-determined opponent (likely the Cubs).
- The Braves’ previously reported agreement with Korean shortstop prospect Jihwan Bae became an official signing Saturday, according to Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Braves have high hopes for the 18-year-old Bae, whom special assistant Chad MacDonald heaped praise on Saturday. “It’s an elite runner, top-of-the-scale runner,” MacDonald said. “He’s very athletic. He stays at shortstop, he’s going to be a solid to plus defender there. His bat-to-ball skills are really good. There’s more power in the bat. If everything clicks, we have a left-handed version of Trea Turner, who I signed in San Diego. Again, maybe not that much power, but certainly the impact speed and defense, with bat-to-ball skills and a left-handed hitter.” As MacDonald mentioned, he was in the Padres’ front office when they inked Turner after selecting him 13th in the 2014 draft. Turner has since blossomed into a star with the Nats.
Braves Likely To Exercise Tyler Flowers’ Option
The Braves’ catcher tandem will remain intact next season. After re-signing backup Kurt Suzuki to a one-year contract on Saturday, general manager John Coppolella told Mark Bowman of MLB.com and other reporters the Braves are “strongly leaning toward” exercising starter Tyler Flowers‘ $4MM club option for 2018. Buying out the O’Connell Sports Management client would cost the team $300K (Twitter link).
“This has worked great this year and we want to see if it can work as well in 2018 too,” Coppolella said of the Flowers-Suzuki tandem (via David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, on Twitter).
Retaining Flowers should be an easy call for the Braves, who have witnessed the 31-year-old turn into a quality all-around backstop in their uniform. Flowers took an unusual route to do so, as he first joined the Braves as a 33rd-round pick in 2005 before heading to the White Sox in a 2008 trade (one that saw Javier Vazquez go to Atlanta) and then returning to his native Georgia as a free agent in December 2015.
During his two seasons as a Brave, Flowers has mixed above-average offensive production – including a .283/.377/.444 line in 345 plate appearances this year – with brilliant work as a receiver. While Flowers threw out a mere 5 percent of attempted base stealers last year and has caught only 19 percent this season, ranking well below the 27 percent league average, both Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner have placed him among the game’s very best pitch framers in the same time period.
All told, Flowers and Suzuki have been worth 4.5 fWAR this year, making them one of the top backstop duos in the majors in their first season together. Even if there’s some regression from the Braves’ catchers in 2018, they should still form a cost-effective pairing at a combined $7.5MM.
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Braves Extend Kurt Suzuki Through 2018
The Braves have signed catcher Kurt Suzuki to a one-year deal. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman initially reported (Twitter link) that the two sides were finalizing a new contract, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reporting that the deal will pay Suzuki $3.5MM in 2018. Suzuki is represented by the MVP Sports Group.
Suzuki, who turns 34 in October, came to Atlanta last winter on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM in guaranteed money. He more than delivered on that agreement, producing a career-high 18 homers as well as a .271/.343/.525 slash line over 287 plate appearances. Remarkably, Suzuki has an .868 OPS both at home and on the road, so his unexpected breakout at the plate can’t be entirely chalked up to the Braves’ move into hitter-friendly SunTrust Park.
Suzuki has markedly improved his hard-hit ball rate and his contact rate for pitches outside the strike zone, and his .255 Isolated Slugging mark is the third-best of any catcher with at least 275 PA this season (just one percentage point ahead of fourth-place Gary Sanchez). Suzuki’s defense continues to garner below-average grades as per StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus, though that is a tradeoff the Braves are willing to make given Suzuki’s bat; it also doesn’t hurt that battery-mate Tyler Flowers is one of the league’s top defensive catchers.
Between Suzuki and Flowers, the Braves have generated 4.4 fWAR from the catcher position this season, more than any other team in baseball save the Buster Posey-powered Giants. Atlanta has a $4MM club option on Flowers that seems like a no-brainer to be exercised, so the Braves head into next season looking very strong behind the plate.
Rosenthal notes that talks between Suzuki and the Braves had been ongoing “for weeks” about a new contract, so the catcher was seemingly pretty unlikely to ever hit the open market. Still, teams looking for catching help this winter now have one less ‘plan B’ type of option behind the three backstops (Jonathan Lucroy, Welington Castillo, Alex Avila) who are bound to attract the most attention amongst free agent catchers.
NL East Notes: Kelley, Ausmus, Mets, Teheran, Braves
Shawn Kelley left during the eighth inning of last night’s Nationals game due to an arm injury that left him with a badly-swollen right hand. “Just on that last pitch I felt something go down through my arm and my hand swelled up a bit,” Kelley told media, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. “I just didn’t feel like I could pitch another pitch honestly. I couldn’t really grip the ball. I motioned for somebody to come out because I knew it wasn’t good.” Kelley will meet with doctors today to evaluate the problem, which is particularly ominous given that Kelley has twice undergone Tommy John surgery. The veteran right-hander has had two separate DL stints due to a bad back and a trap strain, and these injury issues have very likely impacted Kelley’s subpar performance. Kelley has a 7.27 ERA over 26 innings this season, with huge spikes in his homer rate and hard-hit ball rate. As Janes notes, Kelley may not have made the Nats’ playoff roster even if healthy, though the team will have one less bullpen option to choose from if Kelley is indeed hurt.
Here’s more from around the NL East…
- Brad Ausmus won’t be returning as the Tigers’ manager next year, though Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reports that some in the Mets front office are interested in speaking with Ausmus. New York has also been rumored to be making a managerial change, and will likely look into several different candidates if it does indeed move on from the Terry Collins era. It’s also possible that the Mets’ interest in Ausmus may not necessarily involve managing; Ausmus also worked as a special assistant in the Padres’ baseball ops department before taking the Tigers job.
- Also from Gammons’ piece, he expects the Braves to be listening to offers for Julio Teheran during the GM Meetings in November. Teheran drew some trade buzz this past summer, with Atlanta reportedly holding onto Teheran since it was unable to land another top-tier arm to replace the right-hander as the rotation’s ace. Teheran has struggled to a 4.52 ERA over 175 1/3 IP this season, though that inflated number has been due to a lack of success at SunTrust Park — Teheran has a 6.23 ERA at home this season and a 2.84 ERA on the road. While Teheran’s swinging-strike and contact rates have also gone in the wrong direction, between his controllable contract and the idea that he would rebound in another ballpark, the Braves would certainly garner quite a bit of interest in trade talks.
- Braves CEO and chairman Terry McGuirk told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and other media that the team won’t make any management decisions until after the season is over, though McGuirk did praise manager Brian Snitker and president of baseball operations John Hart. McGuirk expects Hart, whose deal is up after the season, to return in 2018. The Braves hold a club option on Snitker’s services for next year, though there has been speculation that the team could be exploring a change in the dugout, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman hearing from a source that the Braves are currently “leaning toward” hiring a new manager. Snitker will meet with the front office to learn about his future, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that this meeting could take place as soon as today.
NL Notes: Goldschmidt, Cozart, Snitker, Panik
There are “hints” that the D-backs plan to try locking up MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt to a longer-term deal, writes Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports in his latest NL Notes column. However, the team’s below-average revenues (in part due to the league’s lowest ticket prices) could make it difficult. Goldschmidt will earn $11MM in 2018 and has an easy-call $14.5MM club option ($2MM buyout) for the 2019 campaign on his contract as well. He’ll turn 32 years old at the end of that 2019 campaign, though he’s shown no signs of slowing down to this point in his career; Goldschmidt is hitting .305/.410/.576 with 35 homers and 18 steals in what has been a roughly 6-WAR season thus far. Of course, any long-term deal with Goldschmidt would have to be able to mesh with Zack Greinke‘s considerable contract and could also impact the team’s ability to re-sign slugger J.D. Martinez.
Elsewhere in the National League…
- Heyman also reports that the Reds may try to retain Zack Cozart in 2018 and beyond after holding onto him in July and August. Per Heyman, the Reds set an extremely high asking price on Cozart, asking the Orioles at one point for top outfield prospect Austin Hays in return. That’s a steep ask for a Cozart rental, considering Hays broke out with a .329/.365/.593 slash and 32 homers in 128 games between Double-A and Triple-A this season before making his MLB debut in September.
- The Braves are still weighing whether to retain manager Brian Snitker beyond the 2017 season, as Heyman notes in his column and as Ken Rosenthal details at greater length for The Athletic (subscription required and strongly recommended). Per Rosenthal, the Braves don’t need to make a decision on Snitker’s 2018 option until five days after the World Series, so they still have some time to mull things over. Snitker tells Rosenthal that he’d like to continue managing for “a while,” though he says he’s not sweating the decision as it’s largely out of his control. Heyman cites a source in reporting that Atlanta is “leaning toward” making a change, though nothing’s been set in stone yet, and it’s possibly that Snitker’s option is simply exercised without any extension being issued. Rosenthal, meanwhile, takes a deeper dive into some of the reported tensions in the Braves organization and how they impact the managerial decision.
- Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wonders whether Giants second baseman Joe Panik is part of the team’s future or will instead be an offseason trade chip. Panik, Baggarly reasons, is one of the Giants’ most desirable big league pieces given his lack of a long-term contract and the fact that he’s only just reaching arbitration eligibility. However, the Giants also didn’t see Christian Arroyo take the step forward that they hoped, making it perhaps tougher to deal from their more proven infield depth. Giants fans and those interested in the offseason trade market are encouraged to check out Baggarly’s well-reasoned take on the situation in full.
NL East Notes: Harvey, Syndergaard, Prado, Braves
Mets righty Matt Harvey turned in another abysmal start last night, leaving him with a 13.19 ERA in his four outings since returning from the DL. As Marc Carig of Newsday writes, Harvey seemed rather dejected after the game, calling his work “terrible all the way around” — though, perhaps, there’s at least some cause for hope in the fact that he is working in the mid-nineties with his fastball. Of course, that’s hardly sufficient in and of itself, and the results have been sobering. “Everybody’s watching,” said Harvey. “I don’t really know what there is to say except for there is nothing to say. It’s terrible. It’s not fun. There’s really nothing to say. There’s no reason for questions. There’s no answers.”
- Meanwhile, the Mets are still waiting to see just how fellow righty Noah Syndergaard will look when he returns to the majors after a long layoff for a partial lat tear. As Mike Puma of the New York Post reports, though, it’s likely at this point that Syndergaard will only be allowed to make two appearances. It had been hoped at one point that he’d be able to make a much more significant return to end the year, but the club has understandably exercised caution. The young ace, after all, is a critically important member of a pitching staff that possesses many questions heading into the offseason.
- It’s now unlikely that Marlins third baseman Martin Prado will make it back for any significant playing time before the end of the 2017 season, Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel reports. The veteran has been trying to return from knee surgery, but his rehab efforts were interrupted by Hurricane Irma. Whether or not he can suit up, it seems promising at least that the 33-year-old seems to have bounced back fairly well from the procedure. After all, he’s still promised another $28.5MM over the next two seasons.
- The Braves appear to be closing in on yet another stadium deal with significant taxpayer money involved. As Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, construction on a new Spring Training facility in North Port, Florida will begin in short order — if the deal is approved today by the city’s commissioners. In addition to the well-documented move to SunTrust Park for the major-league club, the Braves have found accommodating local governments to help build stadiums for several team-owned minor-league affiliates in recent years. This latest project, in Sarasota County, has already ballooned to just over $100MM in projected costs — just over half of which will be the responsibility of the ballclub.
Should The Braves Exercise Their Option Over R.A. Dickey?
As he closes in on his 43rd birthday, Braves knuckler R.A. Dickey has shown no signs of slowing down. He has settled in as an average starter, sure, but he’s not your average “average starter,” either.
Dickey is no longer close to being the Cy Young winner he was in 2012. Since then, though, he has emerged as the game’s preeminent provider of league-average innings. From 2013 through the present, Dickey has averaged 200 frames annually. And he has not strayed more than five percentage points in either direction from the mean ERA in any of those years.
That’s what Atlanta thought it was signing up for when it inked the Tennessee native to a one-year, $7.5MM deal with a $8MM club option ($500K buyout) for 2018. And that’s just what the club got. Until a few rough outings in September, Dickey was allowing less than four earned per nine; now, though, he’s right back at a 4.41 ERA through 175 1/3 frames on the year — nearly identical to his results last year and good for a 101 ERA-. Dickey carries 6.6 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 on the season, right in line with his recent work.
All told, it seems mostly reasonable to anticipate that Dickey will produce similar results next year. Fielding-independent pitching metrics have long suggested good fortune, but Dickey has consistently outperformed them and generated low batting averages on balls in play. It doesn’t take much imagination to view him as an outlier whose value isn’t appropriate measured by those metrics and who can also be expected to defy aging curves.
Dickey can be retained for the same rate of pay. So, do the Braves still want and need him?
Atlanta has already parted with the two other veterans it acquired last winter, Jaime Garcia and Bartolo Colon, though both were set for free agency regardless. The team probably has identified three younger starters to carry in the rotation next year, with Sean Newcomb joining holdovers Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz. None of that trio has been consistently excellent, though all have had their moments and ought to retain their roles. (Newcomb owns the best ERA of the bunch at 4.32, but he has only been asked/able to throw 89 2/3 innings over 17 starts.) Otherwise, the Braves could give a bigger opportunity to Lucas Sims or hope that Max Fried and/or Luiz Gohara win jobs in camp.
There are other arms coming behind this group, too, and Atlanta is rumored yet again to be eyeing more established but still-controllable starters on the trade market. In honesty, though, the club needs reliable innings — if for no other reason than to avoid a situation where the club is forced either to press its young arms too hard or instead find marginal big leaguers to plug any rotation gaps that may arise (as they are wont to do). If the organization really hopes to move toward true contention, then it’s hard to imagine it relying on what’s available in-house.
While other short-term free agent targets may offer more upside, even the best bounceback targets are just that — pitchers with talent but injury or other questions that weigh down their value and appeal. If the Braves prefer to roll the dice, they can send Dickey packing and try their luck on someone else. Or, perhaps, they can bid adieu to the grizzled veteran and aim much higher in trade and/or free agency — though the roster arguably isn’t ready enough for the club to take the kinds of long-term financial risks that led to the most recent rebuild.
Ultimately, there are some pretty compelling reasons for Atlanta to retain the steady veteran. But it’s not quite a slam dunk, with some imaginable scenarios in which the team might simply prefer to take a different course. Some may consider the possibility that the Braves could pick up the option and trade Dickey; while that’s not out of the question, it seems unlikely a team would do that with a veteran whose contract doesn’t carry significant surplus value and who signed with that team due in no small part to geographical considerations. So, that option won’t be broken out in the poll.
How do you think the Braves ought to proceed? (Link for app users.)
Should the Braves Pick Up R.A. Dickey's Option?
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Yes 69% (4,766)
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No 31% (2,122)
Total votes: 6,888
NL East Notes: Markakis, Kemp, Ichiro, Marlins
Some news from around the NL East…
- The Braves know they’ll have to eat most of Matt Kemp‘s remaining salary to facilitate a trade this winter, though the team is less willing to kick in money in a potential Nick Markakis deal, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman writes. Markakis is set to earn $10.5MM in 2018 (the last year of his contract), which the Braves see as “fair value” for the veteran outfielder, so they aren’t likely to cover “much or any” of that salary. Of course, Atlanta’s stance could change depending on what another team is willing to offer for Markakis. Over three seasons with the Braves, Markakis has 3.4 fWAR and is hitting .276/.357/.390 with eight homers over 616 PA in 2017. Earlier today on MLBTR, Connor Byrne listed the Braves’ corner outfield situation as one of the Three Needs the club must address this winter.
- It wouldn’t be surprising to see Ichiro Suzuki back with the Marlins next season given the respect Derek Jeter has for his former teammate, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Suzuki, who turns 44 in October, has indicated that he intends to play in 2018. The veteran has a .260/.325/.345 slash line over 195 PA for the Fish this season while providing backup at all three outfield spots.
- Also from Jackson’s piece, he hears from an investor connected to the Jeter/Bruce Sherman ownership group that there was discussion earlier this summer about the possibility of Casey Close, Jeter’s longtime agent, joining the Marlins front office. It isn’t known if this idea is still being considered, or if Close even has interest in a career change. Jackson speculates that Close could oversee the Marlins’ business operations, while Jeter handles the baseball ops department. Close currently heads Excel Sports Management’s baseball division, and it would send some major ripples through the agent world if he did depart for a new job given the number of players (including some of the game’s biggest names) represented by Excel.