- Amidst the considerable amount of Julio Teheran chatter, one Braves source tells Heyman, “I don’t see the Braves trading Teheran.” That’s a less-definitive statement than the one Heyman received regarding Freddie Freeman, as a source told him the first baseman is “totally off limits,” which lines up with GM John Coppolella’s offseason comments. Heyman adds that the Braves have “tried to dangle” Erick Aybar in trade talks, but he has no value at this point and could simply end up being released, creating an opportunity for one of Atlanta’s top-tier shortstop prospects (Dansby Swanson and Ozhaino Albies).
Braves Rumors
Simmons' Tommy John Comeback Slowed By Shoulder Tendinitis
- MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes that Braves right-hander Shae Simmons, who is recovering from 2015 Tommy John surgery, still doesn’t have a target date to return to the Atlanta bullpen after a pair of setbacks in his rehab. Simmons has had two bouts of shoulder discomfort, and while an MRI has revealed that the shoulder is structurally sound, he’s been diagnosed with tendinitis in his right lat muscle. The 25-year-old Simmons last pitched for the Braves in 2014 when he logged a 2.91 ERA with a 23-to-11 K/BB ratio in 21 2/3 innings.
Braves Favored To Land July 2 Int'l Star Kevin Maitan
- With the next international signing window opening on July 2, Baseball America’s Ben Badler profiles (in two separate pieces) 10 youngsters likely to receive seven-figure bonuses. Kevin Maitan is perhaps the mostly highly-touted player of the entire 2016-17 class, as the 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop is rumored to be in line for a bonus north of $4MM, most likely from the Braves. “Nobody is a can’t miss but it’s hard to see him missing,” one scout says of Maitan. As always, it’s well worth getting a BA subscription to read the full scouting reports and news, including how the Braves, Padres and A’s are connected to two players each, with others rumored to be signing with the Nationals, Astros, Rockies and Mariners.
Cafardo: Braves Split On Moving Teheran
- Opinions are split within the Braves organization as to whether they should trade 25-year-old right-hander Julio Teheran or build around him. The Braves have fielded inquiries on Teheran, but it would cost a significant haul to acquire him, notes Cafardo. In 82 innings this year, Teheran has recorded an excellent ERA (2.85) and put up strong strikeout and walk rates of 8.45 and 2.52, respectively. He’s also controllable through 2020 on an eminently reasonable contract.
[SOURCE LINK]
Braves Release Dale Thayer
Less than two weeks after signing reliever Dale Thayer to a minor league contract, the Braves have announced the release of the right-hander. Prior to his brief stint in the Braves organization, Thayer spent a month with the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate before opting out of his deal with Los Angeles on May 3. He’ll now look for work again after totaling just 1 1/3 innings with the Braves’ Triple-A team.
In his latest taste of big league action, the 35-year-old logged 37 2/3 innings with a 4.06 ERA, 5.97 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9 as a member of the Padres last season. That was Thayer’s fourth year with the Friars, whom he joined in 2012. He previously racked up major league experience with the Rays and Mets. All told, Thayer has pitched to a respectable 3.47 ERA, with a 7.62 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9, in 251 1/2 major league innings.
With just over four years of MLB service time on his ledger, Thayer will still be controllable through arbitration if he lands elsewhere.
MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Julio Teheran
Earlier today, I laid out a high-level overview of the cases both for and against the Braves trading Julio Teheran. While there are certainly some gray areas in making a decision — every player, no matter how good, becomes tradeable once the value received in exchange reaches a certain point — we’ve asked the entire staff at MLBTR to offer its thoughts on whether the Braves should be open to making a move or should hang onto their best starting pitcher.
You can read the above-linked post for more info on the 25-year-old righty. Or, skip right ahead to the opinions of the MLBTR team:
Tim Dierkes: As the saying goes, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.” Teheran has been in the Braves’ organization for nearly a decade, and they know him better than anyone. It was that familiarity that led them to sign him to a deal guaranteeing $32.4MM back in 2014, a fairly aggressive extension for a pitcher with less than two years of Major League service time. Research from Matt Swartz has shown that it is hard to avoid lemons when signing away free agent pitchers from other teams. The Braves may have good money to spend this winter in advance of their new stadium opening, but in addition to the issue of the “Other People’s Players” premium Swartz discovered, the free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bad. Even with Teheran, the Braves will need to add significant starting pitching if they hope to contend in 2017. Verdict: Retain him.
Steve Adams: There’s virtually no scenario in which trading Teheran makes the Braves better in 2016, and they’d be hard-pressed to find a deal that makes them definitively better in 2017 — the year in which they supposedly aim to contend in a new stadium. The Braves have stocked their farm with pitching depth, but Teheran is their best pitcher in the Majors right now, and his $32.4MM contract has enough surplus value that the asking price could (and should) reasonably rival the Shelby Miller haul. A return of that magnitude strikes me as extremely unlikely, and given the backlash they’ve had from fans in John Coppolella’s first season as general manager, moving the team’s clear top starter for more young pieces wouldn’t sit well with their audience. Verdict: Retain him.
Jeff Todd: As things stand, Teheran has had great results in three of his four full seasons in the majors. He’s young, he racks up innings, and he has an appealing contract. On the other hand, he doesn’t have elite swinging strike rates, isn’t much of a groundball pitcher, and has always outperformed ERA estimators — yes, even in 2015 — which have recently viewed him as a ~4.00 (and change) performer. In large part, then, his value is dependent upon whether one believes that’s sustainable. He’s still a nice piece regardless, and at worst he provides Atlanta with a sturdy mid-rotation piece as it exposes its top prospects to the majors, but I’m actually in favor of looking to sell while the gettin’ is good. Teheran’s value is up, especially with a mediocre set of fellow trade targets and a seemingly barren free agent starter crop coming this winter, and frankly I’m not bullish on Atlanta’s 2017 outlook. Too many things need to go right, and the lackluster overall free agent class may not be conducive to building out a competitive roster for a reasonable price. PR considerations aside, a deal that includes at least a high-quality, advanced position-player prospect makes sense to me, even if a truly premium youngster can’t be had. Verdict: Shop him.
Mark Polishuk: The Braves’ long-stated plan was to return to contention when their new ballpark opens in April 2017. While that timeline may have been pushed back a bit thanks to their terrible record this season, the organization obviously still wants to be competitive sooner rather than later. Even if they wait until 2018 to make a push, that’s still well within the life of Teheran’s contract and the prime of his career. If I’m the Braves, I hang onto Teheran now (barring a Godfather offer from another team, of course) since I’d find myself looking for a Teheran-type of pitcher within a year or two anyway. Verdict: Retain him.
Charlie Wilmoth: Not to straddle the fence, but I think the Braves should strongly consider trading Teheran but keep him if they don’t get a return they like. A rebuilding team should consider trading any veteran starter in the midst of a good year. You never know when a pitcher might lose velocity, get hurt, or decline for other reasons, so keeping Teheran to pitch for a bad team is risky asset management. Teheran and Shelby Miller are different types of pitchers, but Miller’s case demonstrates that principle. Even leaving aside the terrific return the Braves wouldn’t have received if they hadn’t dealt Miller, how bad would it have been for Atlanta if the Braves had kept him and then he had a 2016 season like the one he’s having now with the Diamondbacks? On the other hand, Teheran is only 25 and is under control and cheap through 2020, so he could easily be part of the next good Braves team. Add in that the Braves would surely like to play well next season for the opening of their new ballpark, and there are compelling reasons to keep Teheran around. I’d try to deal him, but if the offers are underwhelming, holding on is reasonable too. Verdict: Hung jury!
Connor Byrne: The crop of starters who are expected to be available prior to the trade deadline looks mostly unappealing, as does the upcoming class of free agents, so the rebuilding Braves should at least shop Teheran. The next several months could serve as the perfect time frame for the Braves to get more for Teheran than he’s worth. If they put Teheran on the block and don’t get a palatable enough offer, then keeping him wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. With his team-friendly contract, Teheran won’t have to perform like much more than a back-end starter to provide value over the next few years, meaning the Braves won’t be in a negative position if they retain him. However, by no means should John Coppolella be so intent on acquiring a young, established major league hitter in return for Teheran that he summarily spurns other offers. Teheran’s only a year removed from a 4.00 ERA season with a below-average 2.34 K/BB ratio. We’re not talking about a Jose Fernandez-esque superstar here; rather, Teheran’s contract and durability are arguably the two best things he has going for him. The Braves shouldn’t need to be “overwhelmed” to trade him, then, even though Coppolella said otherwise last month. Verdict: Shop him.
That’s where we stand, but we’ll also open this one up to our readers with a poll (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):
The Cases For And Against A Julio Teheran Trade
We’re firing up another new series here at MLBTR in which we’ll take one oft-discussed topic each week and present the high-level cases both for and against the move in question. Following that, we’ll present a roundtable of opinions from the MLBTR staff in a separate post and ask our reader base to weigh in on the matter with a poll.
With the Braves in full rebuild mode and their stated willingness to listen to offers for anyone not named Freddie Freeman, it’s only natural that Julio Teheran’s name has come up frequently early in the summer. Last week, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne examined the difficulties in identifying a trade partner that had both the need to add Teheran and the ability to part with the MLB-ready types of young talent which Atlanta is said to covet in a theoretical deal.
Teheran is off to an incredible start to his 2016 season, having pitched to a 2.85 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate in 82 innings out of the Atlanta rotation. He also looks to be well on his way to a third straight season of 200+ innings in just his age-25 season. He’s benefited from some good fortune in terms of BABIP (.228) and strand rate (83 percent), but Teheran has posted a BABIP lower than the league average throughout his career and also posted strand rates that are above the league norm, so while some regression can be expected, it probably shouldn’t be assumed that those numbers will trend all the way back to the league averages.
We’re a good seven and a half weeks away from this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, and Teheran is pitching brilliantly for a last-place club in the midst of a rebuild, expect to hear his name floated with some degree of regularity between now and Aug. 1. However, does the very fact that he’s an appealing asset on a rebuilding club mean that Teheran should be traded? Let’s look at both sides of the coin.
The case for trading Julio Teheran
The case for the Braves to trade any player on their big league roster always starts at the same place: they’re a team that wasn’t good in 2015 and has been significantly worse in 2016. Atlanta is currently on a course for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and they’ll be among the few teams that are definitive sellers leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trading deadline. The Braves will probably field calls on any and all pieces that could help a contending club, and Teheran, as noted above, more than fits that bill.
Given his strong start to the season, his highly affordable contract and the utter dearth of impact arms not only on the summer trade market but also on the upcoming free-agent market, there’s a chance that the Braves could coerce a team into parting with a potentially exorbitant package of young talent to pry Teheran from their hands. Atlanta reached that nexus of frenzied demand and willingness to surrender elite talent in the offseason’s Shelby Miller blockbuster, and there’s a case to be made that Teheran could, or at least should, be worth more. The D-backs, after all, were acquiring three years of Miller at arbitration prices, whereas a team dealing for Teheran would be taking on the remainder of this season’s salary ($2.06MM as of this writing) and three more years at $26.3MM. That’s three and a half years of Teheran for roughly $28.14MM plus a club option for $12MM in 2020 — his age-29 season. Last summer, the Rangers surrendered a package of Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Alec Asher in the Cole Hamels/Jake Diekman trade. Teheran’s entire contract is worth barely more than a season of Hamels, financially speaking.
Moving Teheran this summer could net the Braves an MLB-ready asset (as Eickhoff gave the Phillies or as Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair gave the Braves in the Miller deal) as well as multiple high-ceiling, top 100 range prospects. The 2016 product is bad, and moving Teheran right now could net them two or more pieces that would help in 2017, when more of their vaunted farm system is at the Major League level.
The case against trading Julio Teheran
On the flip side, the Braves are aiming to contend in 2017, and Teheran helps them tremendously in that vein. Matt Wisler’s solid start to the season aside, Teheran is the Braves’ best pitcher. He misses more bats, generates more grounders and has displayed better control over the course of his career than Wisler has in his. Trading Teheran almost certainly makes the Braves a worse team in 2016, and there’s a very real chance that doing so would make them worse in 2017 as well. Acquiring MLB-ready assets is always a plus, but prospects aren’t guaranteed, no matter how highly regarded they may be. Teheran is performing well in the Majors right now and has done so since 2013, posting a cumulative 3.30 ERA in 689 1/3 innings.
The contract, as mentioned above, gives the Braves the best years of a pitcher that may not be a definitive ace but can clearly pitch near the top of a Major League rotation at an exceptionally affordable rate. Teheran is in his fourth season of big league service and would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the second time this coming winter. He’s earning salaries of $3.3MM, $6.3MM and $8MM for his arbitration seasons and can be controlled for just $23MM total for his first two would-be free-agent seasons. His arb years are cheaper than the likes of Wade Miley and Lance Lynn, and Teheran’s free-agent seasons are priced somewhere in the range of 50 to 75 percent of what they’d command on the open market (as is the case with most pre-arbitration extensions). There’s an enormous amount of value to the Braves themselves in that deal.
Beyond the on-field and financial reasons for keeping Teheran, the Braves have been aggressively working to fight the notion that they’re “tanking” in order to continue to build up the farm through the draft. General manager John Coppolella has repeatedly stressed that his hope for the 2016 season was an improvement over 2015’s record and strides toward a competitive product in 2017 — the opening season of the Braves’ new stadium, Sun Trust Park. Trading away their best pitcher for even more young, controllable pieces would only further fuel the tanking narrative, even if the return brought the potential for multiple contributors to the 2016-17 roster. The Braves would also face continued backlash from a fanbase that has been particularly vocal about its thoughts on the current rebuild, and while fan reaction shouldn’t be the deciding factor in a move, it’s certainly something of which the Braves’ brass must be mindful as it approaches the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL East Notes: Braves, Draft, Johnson, Mets, Bourjos
Multiple draft outlets have noted the possibility that the Braves could cut a deal with high school right-hander Ian Anderson at No. 3 overall in tonight’s draft with an eye toward over-spending on the No. 40 selection. ESPN’s Keith Law noted as much in this morning’s final mock draft (subscription required and recommended), and Eric Longenhagen or ESPN and Fangraphs tweets that the team could do so with an eye on getting former No. 1 overall candidate Jason Groome at No. 40, though their willingness to do so is dependent on who comes off the board with the first and second selections. D1Baseball.com’s Frankie Piliere tweeted earlier today that Groome’s asking price is extremely high and connected him to the Braves while adding that he’s in a somewhat of a “freefall” as a result of his price tag. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com wrote in today’s draft buzz column wrote that Groome has floated an asking price of $4MM, which could cause some teams to shy away from him. Notably, the MLB.com pair also adds that Groome has now committed to Chipola Junior College in Florida after having previously been committed to Vanderbilt. In doing so, Groome would allow himself to be eligible for next year’s draft if he elects not to sign.
More from the NL East…
- The Mets could have promoted either Dilson Herrera or T.J. Rivera to the Majors instead of swinging yesterday’s trade for utilityman Kelly Johnson, writes Newsday’s Marc Carig, but assistant GM John Ricco explained that the club wasn’t interested in asking a player to make a notable position switch, as it would’ve had to do with either Rivera, Herrera or Neil Walker (who would move off of second base if Herrera were to slide into his natural position at the MLB level). Skipper Terry Collins lauded the front office for bringing back Johnson, whom he described as an excellent clubhouse presence and a veteran that has been through the rigors of a postseason chase before. Ricco added that while the team waited out some injuries last season, New York’s aspirations of winning it all in 2016 prompted earlier action. Johnson and James Loney, the two players acquired recently, aren’t exactly impact players that would push a team over the edge, of course, but adding role players to plug gaps on the roster in June as opposed to July can indeed make a difference in a tight division race.
- The Post’s Ken Davidoff was also on hand to talk to Ricco and Collins about the Mets’ acquisition of Johnson, with Ricco stating that the enhanced play of the 2016 Nationals (as compared to last season’s squad) didn’t prompt earlier action. Collins, meanwhile, noted that the addition of a player in an early trade is important in sending a message to the clubhouse that the front office is committed to winning in the current season. Per Collins, last season’s acquisition of Johnson and Juan Uribe “completely” changed the clubhouse atmosphere. Davidoff adds that striking early allows the Mets to reassess later in the summer if Johnson isn’t able to right the ship at the plate.
- While the Mets are clearly in the need for infield help, as evidenced by the Johnson trade, Carig checked in with a team source in regards to recently released Dodgers infielder Alex Guerrero and was told that the 29-year-old is not on the Mets’ radar at this time (Twitter link).
- The Phillies have informed Peter Bourjos that he is now a bench player, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. Manager Pete Mackanin called the situation “unfortunate” and noted that Bourjos “has got to make a drastic change in his approach offensively.” Mackanin stressed that he “loves” Bourjos’ defensive work, but the 29-year-old’s .195/.226/.282 batting line and near-28 percent strikeout rate aren’t cutting it in the lineup. In his place, extra at-bats figure to be given to Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel, Cody Asche and Jimmy Paredes, writes Gelb, though he notes that the Phils are also hopeful of seeing names like Nick Williams and Roman Quinn impact the outfield alignment later in the season. For Bourjos, the loss of a starting job with free agency so close around the corner is disheartening, though his defensive prowess should land him an opportunity elsewhere this coming winter.
Mets Acquire Kelly Johnson
4:38pm: The Braves sent about $450K to the Mets in the trade as well, tweets the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff. That will help offset the remaining $1.268MM on Johnson’s 2016 contract. The Braves, then, are saving about $818K in the trade.
10:56am: The Mets have officially struck a deal to acquire utilityman Kelly Johnson from the Braves, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com first reported on Twitter. Minor league righty Akeel Morris heading back in return.
New York and Atlanta are division rivals, but that didn’t stop them from linking up last summer on a deal that brought Johnson and fellow veteran Juan Uribe to the Mets. Johnson returned to Atlanta after playing a limited but important role for the eventual National League champs, only to be sent north once again.
The contending Mets have seen some holes open up this year due to injuries. In particular, first baseman Lucas Duda, third baseman David Wright, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud are in various stages of lengthy absences, while outfielder Juan Lagares is limited by a thumb injury.
Johnson, 34, figures to provide a stopgap at any number of positions. Over 11 years with eight organizations, he’s lined up at second base, all four corner infield and outfield spots, and even shortstop (albeit only for one game). The left-handed-hitting Johnson looks like a particularly good fit at third base, where he could share time with Wilmer Flores, though it’s fair to note that Johnson has never carried much of a platoon split.
At his best, Johnson is a reasonably solid defender and an average or better hitter with some pop. The question is how much is left in the bat. Over 132 plate appearances this year, he’s slashed a meager .215/.273/.289 with a single home run. That’s a good ways off of his lifetime .250/.330/.420 slash and double-digit annual long ball output.
In Morris, the Braves are getting a 23-year-old reliever who has just a single MLB appearance under his belt. Heading into 2016, he had posted three straight seasons of sparkling results while steadily climbing the ladder. Over his first 25 1/3 innings this year, all coming at the Double-A level, Morris has surrendered 13 earned runs and issued 16 free passes — though he’s also allowed only 19 hits while racking up 36 strikeouts.
Jon Morosi of FOX Sports first reported that a trade between the teams was close (Twitter link).
Braves Lacking In Power, Organization-Wide
- The Braves’ 23 homers is easily the lowest of any team in baseball, and Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (subscription required) notes that the team also doesn’t have any burgeoning slugging prospects in the farm system. This lack of power is why Bradley feels the Braves will keep Hector Olivera once his domestic violence suspension is up, as Olivera at least displayed some home run-hitting ability in Cuba (though not yet in his brief MLB career).
