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Make Or Break Year: How Are They Doing?

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Before the season, we identified 11 players who were entering "make or break" years. These guys had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for nice paydays in the future. Now that we're into August, let's take a second to check in each player (all links go to MLBTR posts)…

  • Scott Baker, Twins — Baker, 30, had elbow surgery in April and will miss the entire season. Minnesota will likely decline his $9.25MM option for 2013 (no buyout).
  • Phil Hughes, Yankees — The 26-year-old right-hander owns a 4.10 ERA in 131 2/3 innings this year, including a 3.40 ERA since mid-May. He's a safe bet to be tendered a contract for 2014, his final year as a arbitration-eligible player.
  • Jair Jurrjens, Braves — Jurrjens, 26, pitched so poorly earlier in the season that he had to be sent to the minors. He's since resurfaced and owns 6.89 ERA in 48 1/3 innings, cementing his status as a non-tender candidate.
  • Adam Lind, Blue Jays — Lind has battled back problems and also been demoted to Triple-A this season, and he's hit .227/.298/.394 while with the big league team. The 29-year-old continues to disappoint since signing his four-year, $18MM extension prior to 2010.
  • Francisco Liriano, White Sox — It's been another up and down season for the 28-year-old southpaw, who owns a 5.03 ERA in 111 innings. The Twins traded Liriano to the ChiSox at the deadline.
  • James Loney, Dodgers — Loney, now 28, hasn't helped himself at all this season, hitting just .251/.301/.330 in 327 plate appearances. He might have to settle for a minor league contract this coming offseason.
  • Kendrys Morales, Angels — The 29-year-old is hitting .282/.327/.455 with 14 homers on the year, well below the level he established prior to his leg injury in 2010. Morales figures to be both a trade and non-tender candidate after the season.
  • Mike Pelfrey, Mets — Pelfrey pitched to a 2.29 ERA in three starts before needing Tommy John surgery. The Mets are expected to non-tender the 28-year-old after the season.
  • Geovany Soto, Rangers — The 29-year-old backstop has continued to deal with injuries in 2012 and is hitting just .201/.289/.356. Soto is an obvious non-tender candidate.
  • Kevin Youkilis, White Sox — Youkilis lost his starting job with the Red Sox and was traded to the White Sox, who are likely to decline his $13MM option after the season. The 33-year-old has dealt with nagging injuries and is hitting .238/.339/.427 overall.
  • Delmon Young, Tigers — Young, 26, has had a below-average season at the plate (.266/.298/.402) and has dealt with some off-field problems. He hasn't helped his free agent stock any.

2013 Vesting Options Update

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With a little less than one-third of the season left to go, let's check in on the various vesting option situations from around the league…

  • Jason Bartlett, Padres — $5.5MM option vests with 432 plate appearances. Bartlett came to the plate just 98 times before being placed on the disabled list with a knee injury. He won't return to the lineup anytime soon, so this option will not vest.
  • Kevin Gregg, Orioles — $6MM option vests with 50 games finished. Gregg has finished just 12 of the team's 113 games, so this one is very unlikely even though it's still mathematically possible.
  • Brett Myers, White Sox — $10MM option vests with 45 games finished or based on a points system. Myers has finished 33 games this season, and he has finished four of the ten games he's appeared in with Chicago despite not being the closer. This is one worth monitoring.

Chipper Jones has an option worth $9MM+ that will vest with 123 games played, but he's already rendered the option moot by announcing his plans to retire after the season. He recently said that he won't change his mind about retirement despite his strong play as well. Chipper has played in 71 of the Braves' first 112 games.

Alex Gonzalez has an option worth $4MM that will vest with 525 plate appearances, but he is expected to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Gonzalez came to the plate just 89 times before the injury, so the Brewers do not have to worry about this one kicking in.

Quick Hits: Padres, Cubs, Bourn, Sheets, Braves

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Earlier today, the Indians released right-hander Derek Lowe after designating him for assignment earlier this month.  The veteran is willing to start or relieve and there's reportedly a sense that he'll return to the National League.  While we keep an eye on where the veteran might land, here's tonight's look around baseball..

  • As first reported by Jim Callis of Baseball America, Padres scouting director Jaron Madison is leaving the organization to join the Cubs.  The 36-year-old will take over as Chicago's scouting director while Tim Wilken has been reassigned to the role of Special Assistant to president Theo Epstein, the team announced.
  • One Braves official believes that if Michael Bourn had an agent other than Scott Boras he might already have a new contract with the club, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com.  People who know Nationals GM Mike Rizzo believe that Bourn has always been at the top of his wish list and the Phillies, Reds, and Marlins are also potential suitors this winter.
  • Ben Sheets wasn't entirely confident about his return to the big leagues, but the veteran has looked tremendous so far, Knobler writes.  The 34-year-old isn't sure how long he'll continue pitching but he says that he wants to leave on his own terms as opposed to being forced out by injury.

Non-Tender Candidate: Jair Jurrjens

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Jair Jurrjens entered the 2012 season with a career ERA of 3.40 and a sparkling 50-33 record. He had just obtained a substantial raise through the arbitration process and seemed to have established himself as an All-Star caliber pitcher.

Jair Jurrjens - Braves (PW)

But he has pitched ineffectively this season, struggling as a Braves starter and getting a demotion to the minor leagues. He’s now on the disabled list and he’s not getting any more affordable, so the Braves will have to consider removing him from their roster by the December deadline for tendering contracts to arbitration eligible players.

The Tigers signed Jurrjens back in 2003 and traded him and Gorkys Hernandez to Atlanta four years later for Edgar Renteria. In 2008, his first season with the Braves, Jurrjens started 31 games and finished third in the Rookie of the Year balloting. By 2009 he had reached the 200-inning plateau and posted a 2.60 ERA with twice as many strikeouts as walks. And in 2011, he made the National League All-Star team, posting a 2.96 ERA with 5.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 42% ground ball rate in 152 innings.

Yet the 2012 season has consisted of one disappointment after another. Jurrjens struggled through four April starts and, after losing his rotation spot and being demoted to the minor leagues, posted a 5.18 ERA with 4.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in ten forgettable starts at Triple-A. The Braves recalled him in late June, and he made seven more appearances before hitting the disabled list with a strained right groin. In total, he has a 6.89 ERA with about as many strikeouts (19) as walks (18) in 48 1/3 innings at the MLB level this year.

Given that stat line, it’s not surprising to learn that Jurrjens’ stuff appears to be in decline. His average fastball velocity has declined for the fifth consecutive season and now sits at 88.6 mph, according to FanGraphs. And among pitchers with at least 40 innings this year, only Burke Badenhop, Bartolo Colon and Aaron Cook generate a lower percentage of swings and misses than Jurrjens, who induces swinging strikes on fewer than five pitches for every 100 thrown (4.6%). Simply put, hitters aren’t have any trouble connecting with his offerings. 

Jurrjens earns $5.5MM this year and is on track to go to arbitration for the third and final time this coming offseason. He projects to earn $5.9MM in 2013 if he continues pitching at the MLB level and the Braves tender him a contract, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz estimates. That would be a major commitment for a player who might not even make the Braves’ 2013 rotation, so the possibility of a non-tender looms despite his past contributions.

Though Jurrjens seems headed for free agency this winter, another option exists. There could be a team looking for pitching — the Royals, Rockies, Astros or Twins, perhaps — that would be willing to take a chance on a 26-year-old one year removed from an All-Star season. The Braves, who were said to be willing to listen on Jurrjens last offseason, wouldn’t get much in return this time. But it’s a possibility general manager Frank Wren will surely consider if it would allow the Braves to obtain something of value in return.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

NL East Notes: Bourn, Reyes, Stanton

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The Braves and Nationals have positioned themselves as likely playoff teams for 2012 with less than two months to go before the end of the regular season. Baseball Prospectus calculates that the Nationals have a 96.4% chance of making the postseason and gives the Braves a 78.5% chance of being in the playoffs. Here are today's NL East links…

  • One MLB official told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney that the Phillies would like to re-acquire a player they once drafted and developed. "You know who they want, right?" the official asked Olney. "They love Michael Bourn." Bourn also figures to draw interest from the Nationals when he hits free agency this offseason, and the Braves will likely have some interest in retaining him. Bourn and agent Scott Boras might have tremendous leverage as the three NL East teams bid for his services. Olney suggests Bourn figures to get a multiyear deal in the $16-22MM per season range, and I agree.
  • Both Jose Reyes and the Marlins seem happy with the six-year contract they agreed to last offseason, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports. "I'm happy in Miami," Reyes said. "No regrets for me." The Marlins seem satisfied with Reyes and are unlikely to trade him, Knobler reports. 
  • Though they have a policy of listening to trade offers for any player, the Marlins seem to like the idea of building their lineup around Reyes and Giancarlo Stanton, according to Knobler.

Chipper Jones Won’t Reconsider Retirement

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Chipper Jones told reporters, including David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, he is not having any second thoughts about his plan to retire at the end of the season, despite posting good numbers this year.

“I thought I was fully capable of doing what I’m doing,” Jones said. “In fact, I told my agent [B.B. Abbott] in spring training. He told me, ‘You can’t back-track on this [retirement decision]. If you’ve got 20 homers and you’re hitting .300 and you’ve got 80 or 90 RBIs, you can’t second-guess yourself.’ And I said, well, I’m going to have those numbers, and I’m ready to leave. I’m ready to move on.”

Jones is ready to move on from his age-40 season where he leads the Braves with a slash line of .320/.394/.513 plus a team-leading .907 OPS (only two points lower than Prince Fielder and just nine points lower than Josh Hamilton).

O'Brien writes that some around baseball have suggested Jones could play at least another season or two in the NL and possibly more in the AL, as being a designated hitter would save wear and tear on his surgically repaired knees. But, Jones isn't having any of it.

"It’s nice to have people saying that,” Jones said. “It’s nice that people aren’t saying, ‘You should have done it two or three years ago.’ The fact that people are saying I should stay, that I could still be effective, that’s kind of what I was shooting for. No matter what you do you’re not going to make everybody happy. I’ve got two wives that will attest to that.”

Jones reiterated his intention to retire prior to the Braves' 6-1 win over the Astros, a game in which he scored the 1,600th run of his career while going 2-for-4 including a run-scoring double.

Quick Hits: Sheets, Braves, Phillies, Royals

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Saturday afternoon linkage..

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recaps the unusual story of how Ben Sheets wound up hooking on with the Braves.  The 34-year-old, who had interest from a number of clubs, told Rosenthal that the situation in Atlanta fit him perfectly even though the offer wasn't necessarily the best.  The veteran prefers the National League, likes the pitcher's advantage in Turner Field, and enjoys the humidity of the Southeast.  Sheets' deal is for the prorated portion of $2.25MM and includes up to $1.4MM in incentives.
  • While Ruben Amaro Jr. & Co. are staying positive about the 2012 season, the Phillies should be making moves with 2013 and beyond in mind, opines Marc Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
  • We could see familiar August trade subjects such as Jeff Francoeur go through the process once more this year, writes Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated.  Other top candidates to be moved include Carlos Lee of the Marlins, Jose Lopez of the Indians, and Scott Hairston of the Mets.
  • Dominican third baseman Juan Carlos Arias failed his age investigation, a major league source told Ben Badler of Baseball America.  The 6-foot-3, 220 pound prospect stood out for his raw power and strength but will now have to wait until June 12, 2013 to sign.

AL West Notes: Iwakuma, Rangers, Dempster

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The Athletics and Angels are currently positioned as the American League's two Wild Card teams. Both clubs made trades with the Brewers in anticipation of the non-waiver trade deadline, but the Angels' acquisition (Zack Greinke) led to considerably more headlines than the player the A's obtained (George Kottaras). Here's the latest on the other two AL West teams…

  • Sosnick Cobbe Sports no longer represents Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (on Twitter). Agent Paul Cobbe said it made sense for the sides to end their business relationship because of some personal differences.
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels will look out for possible August trade targets this month, Bryan Dolgin of ESPNDallas.com writes. "It's unusual to find an everyday player, a starting pitcher, but you can find some quality role players or relief pitchers out there," Daniels said.
  • Recently-acquired Rangers starter Ryan Dempster said on ESPN 1000's The Waddle & Silvy Show that he never turned down a trade to Atlanta (link via ESPNChicago.com). "All I asked for was more time on one particular trade," the right-hander said. The Cubs sent Dempster to Texas for minor league third baseman Christian Villanueva and minor league right-hander Kyle Hendricks.

NL Central Notes: Sutton, Soriano, Cubs

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The latest from the NL Central, as the Reds, Pirates and Cardinals look to improve their rosters for the season's final two months…

  • The Pirates announced that they designated outfielder Drew Sutton for assignment to create roster space for Daniel McCutchen. Travis Snider has joined the team in Chicago, the Pirates announced. Sutton, 29, posted a .243/.278/.419 batting line in 79 plate appearances with the Pirates, who claimed him from the Rays last month.
  • The Pirates are focused on adding bench and bullpen help after trading for Travis Snider, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). 
  • Alfonso Soriano has provided the Cubs with a list of teams to which he would accept a trade, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter). The Giants aren’t on it. Soriano was interested in waiving his no-trade clause to join the Dodgers, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports (on Twitter). However, the Shane Victorino trade likely reduces Los Angeles' interest in Soriano.
  • The Cubs did well to acquire Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman for Reed Johnson and Paul Maholm, ESPN.com's Keith Law writes. Atlanta will be better in 2012 as a result of the trade, but the Cubs did well to obtain Vizcaino, a top pitching prospect when healthy, in Law's estimation.

Braves Acquire Reed Johnson, Paul Maholm

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The Cubs have traded left-hander Paul Maholm, outfielder Reed Johnson and cash considerations to the Braves in a four-player trade that provides Atlanta with reinforcements for the season's final two months and bolsters Chicago's minor league system. The Cubs obtain right-handers Jaye Chapman and Arodys Vizcaino in the trade, which the teams have announced. 

Paul Maholm - Cubs (PW)

Maholm has a 3.74 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 49.9% ground ball rate in 120 1/3 innings for the Cubs this year. The 30-year-old has never thrown particularly hard; his average fastball checks in at 87.6 mph this year, according to FanGraphs. He earns a $4.75MM salary in 2012 and his contract includes a $6.5MM club option for 2013. The Royals and Pirates appeared to have interest in Maholm earlier this month.

Johnson, 35, has a .307/.361/.452 batting line in 180 plate appearances this year. The right-handed hitter has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and owns a career .313/.370/.469 line against left-handed pitching. He's signed to a one-year, $1.15MM contract and will hit free agency after the season. Four teams made offers for Johnson today, including the Pirates and Tigers, according to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.

Vizcaino, who entered the 2012 season ranked by Baseball America as the 40th-best prospect in MLB, had Tommy John surgery this spring. The 21-year-old posted a 3.06 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 97 innings for three Braves affiliates as he made his way through Atlanta's minor league system in 2011. The right-hander reached the Major Leagues last year, posting a 4.67 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 17 relief appearances.

Chapman, a 25-year-old right-hander, has a 3.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings of relief for Atlanta's Triple-A team so far in 2012. The Braves selected him in the 16th round of the 2005 draft.

Maholm joins a Braves rotation that includes Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor, Ben Sheets and, as of tomorrow, Kris Medlen. The Braves nearly traded for Ryan Dempster this month, but the sides don't appear to have obtained the right-hander's permission. 

Geovany Soto has been traded to the Rangers in a separate move.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com first reported that Johnson had been traded (on Twitter). Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports first reported Maholm's role in the trade and first reported that the Braves were the other team involved (Twitter link). ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick first reported that the Cubs were getting two minor league pitchers, including Chapman. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Cubs were getting Vizcaino. Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

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