Poll: Who Will Sign An Extension This May?
Let's start the weekend up with a poll. As MLBTR's Steve Adams noted recently, two young stars (Adam Jones and Miguel Montero) signed significant extensions during May of 2012. While there have not been significant rumblings about any similar deals recently, the Jones and Montero deals both sprung up with relatively little advance buzz: Jones said he was not aware of any talks with the Orioles just a month before his six-year, $85.5MM deal was inked. And the build up to Montero's five-year, $60MM extension consisted largely of the Diamondbacks' acknowledgement that the team was open to in-season negotiations.
Jones had one year of arbitration eligibility remaining when he signed, while Montero would have become a free agent at the end of the year. Both were relatively young (26 and 28, respectively) and fairly well established as above-average players at premium defensive positions. And each had been with their teams for all or virtually all of their big league careers.
With those deals in mind, let's take a look at some generally comparable position players who could be positioned for similar deals. We will not include Robinson Cano, as he is at a different level of performance and contract extension, along with being somewhat older. Anyhow, we already asked MLBTR readers what they think about the likelihood of a Cano extension. Likewise, we'll leave out Chase Headley, given his recent comments. (Also, MLBTR readers just weighed in on a possible Headley extension, with the majority believing a trade was more likely than an extension.)
The Nationals' Ian Desmond, 27, has continued to build off of his emergence last year. He sports a .296/.311/.530 line, although he has also registered seven early errors. The shortstop has spent his entire career in the former-Expos organization, and is poised to hit the open market in 2016. We know the Nats are open to negotiating an extension with Desmond, and the Elvis Andrus signing provides a relevant (albeit imperfect) point of reference.
Orioles' catcher Matt Wieters is another obvious candidate. He will turn 27 later this month, and is looking at free agency in 2016. Ongoing negotiations between Wieters and the O's are seemingly at a simmer, but could pick up at any time. While Wieters is off to a bit of a slow start, slashing just .224/.297/.388 to date, he also probably had less to prove this season than Desmond.
Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, 29, is similarly situated to Montero. He has played his entire career in Boston, but is set to become a free agent after the season. While the center fielder has not returned to his MVP-level 2011 season, when he exploded for 32 home runs, he has bounced back from his injury-shortened 2012. Thus far, his batting line (.286/.338/.405) and league-leading steal totals (11) are right in line with his strong 2008-2009 seasons. While both player and team appear interested in discussing an extension, Ellsbury's representation by Scott Boras — and the possibility that he could significantly raise his value with an injury-free 2013 — could make a deal unlikely.
Jason Heyward of the Braves is two years from free agency at just 23 years old, but as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes notes, the cost-conscious Braves could look to extend him. Heyward is currently on the DL after undergoing an appendectomy, and has had a poor start to the year. Nevertheless, he has established himself as few big leaguers have at his age.
Austin Jackson, the Tigers' center fielder, is a young 26 and still two years from free agency. He is also a client of Scott Boras. But his strong early track record could make him a target for Detroit to try and lock up early. With so many big-money free agent deals on the books, it could make sense for the Tigers to try and save on Jackson by guaranteeing him money in advance. Jackson is off to another good start, putting up a .293/.356/.407 line to go with five steals.
Poll: Who Will Sign An Extension This May?
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Matt Wieters 21% (1,577)
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Nobody 20% (1,461)
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Austin Jackson 20% (1,447)
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Jason Heyward 16% (1,202)
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Jacoby Ellsbury 8% (613)
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Someone Else 8% (597)
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Ian Desmond 7% (504)
Total votes: 7,401
Quick Hits: Blue Jays, Rangers, Yankees, Brewers, Upton
Here are a few notes from around baseball:
- The Blue Jays are already looking at an uphill battle to achieve a postseason berth, so much so that Dave Cameron of Fangraphs says it is not too early to wonder whether they will be trade deadline sellers. In particular, Cameron notes that the team may be forced to consider dealing soon-to-be free agent starter Josh Johnson. He adds in an audio chat, however, that there is little likelihood that a hypothetical Johnson trade would happen before mid-June. Cameron expanded upon the article in the chat, including discussion of the way that baseball's current rule system will continue to impact teams' trade incentives (beginning at around the 8:57 mark).
- The Rangers have used thirteen pitchers this season, ten of whom have never appeared in another MLB uniform, notes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Team CEO Nolan Ryan explains: "What you're seeing is a philosophy of pitching in our system and we've stayed the course and we are committed to developing pitching within our system." The current and future flow of pitching talent has enabled the team to pursue top line free agents like Zack Greinke without feeling compelled to overpay.
- With their solid start coming in spite of bad health, the Yankees could continue to tinker with their roster, writes Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues. In particular, Axisa says players like Casper Wells, Chris Nelson, and Humberto Quintero could all be easy ways to make small, but still-important upgrades.
- The Brewers are hoping to acquire a corner infielder/outfielder in the mold of Mark Kotsay, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. In 2011, Kotsay played in 104 games for the Brewers at all three outfield spots as well as first base.
- Neither the Braves nor Diamondbacks will end up as the loser of the deal that sent Justin Upton to Atlanta, Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com opined last week. Ringolsby says that Upton needed a change of scenery to an environment where he did not have to be "The Guy." With the Braves able to fully realize Upton's value, says Ringolsby, the Diamondbacks in turn were able to open playing time for other outfielders (specifically, Adam Eaton and Gerardo Parra) while impacting the team's clubhouse and building farm depth.
NL Notes: Gattis, Quintero, Nelson
The emergence of Evan Gattis as a power threat could soon create a logjam at catcher for the Braves, MLB.com's Mark Bowman writes. Brian McCann is nearly set to return from the disabled list, but the Braves don't want to demote Gattis (who has six home runs), and it's too early to get rid of Gerald Laird, in part because the Braves signed him to a two-year contract over the winter. (Laird has also hit well in limited time so far.) Jason Heyward's recent appendix surgery could create a temporary opportunity for Gattis in the outfield, but as the season progresses, it could be interesting to watch Atlanta's catching situation. McCann is a free agent after the season, and as Jeff Todd noted last week, Gattis' emergence, if it continues, could make the Braves feel better about McCann's likely departure. Here are more notes from around the National League.
- The Phillies recently designated catcher Humberto Quintero for assignment, but they want him to clear waivers, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. Now that Carlos Ruiz is returning from his suspension, the Phillies have settled on Erik Kratz to be his backup. But they want more veteran catching depth in their organization, and they value Quintero's big-league experience. "There's a chance he could still be with us, and selfishly, we hope he is," says assistant GM Scott Proefrock.
- The Rockies are waiting to see what happens to infielder Chris Nelson, who they designated for assignment on Sunday, according to MLB.com's Thomas Harding. Nelson was the Rockies' first-round pick in the 2004 Draft. "It's important to honor Nellie and what he's meant to this organization," says Rockies manager Walt Weiss. "Personally, my relationship goes beyond player-manager. They brought him in and worked him out before the Draft, and I was out there taking ground balls with him in front of our entire scouting department, and I was with him in our Minor League system."
NL Notes: Mets, Lincecum, Cardinals, Upton
Let's start the last weekend in April with some notes from the National League:
- As expected, offseason acquisition Shaun Marcum has been activated to make his first start for the Mets today, the team announced via Twitter. In a corresponding move, the team optioned 26-year-old lefty Josh Edgin to the minors, where he will try to sort out his poor start to the year. The Mets hope that Marcum, who came to New York on a one-year, $4MM deal, can stabilize the back of the team's rotation. While Matt Harvey has been lights out and Jon Niese has been solid, the remaining Mets starters have combined to allow well over five earned runs per nine innings.
- Even with the mixed results from the team's starting staff, the Mets have gotten off to a fairly promising start. Meanwhile, the Nationals and Phillies have failed to live up to expectations in the early going. While acknowledging it is a long shot, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks at what it would take for the Mets to seize any opening should the Nats and Phils continue to underperform. Many variables would have to break right for the Mets, says Davidoff. The club must hold things together and hope that Travis d'Arnaud and Zack Wheeler arrive mid-summer, ready to contribute. (Of course, the d'Arnaud side of this already looks unlikely given his approximately two-month injury timetable.) If that happens, the Mets will face a test of their asserted willingness to take on salary — and/or even deal young talent — to make a run at a postseason appearance.
- In the midst of what MLBTR's Mark Polishuk calls a make or break year, Giants starter Tim Lincecum has put together two consecutive quality starts. As Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com writes, last night Lincecum struck out nine Padres over seven innings, allowing just two runs. Lincecum, who currently stands ninth in Tim Dierkes's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, had struggled mightily in his first three outings. While he still ranks among baseball's worst in BB/9 (5.16), Lincecum has raised his strikeout rate to 9.71 K/9.
- The Cardinals are not currently looking outside the organization to supplement their bullpen, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. While the club waits to learn the fate of injured closer Jason Motte, it has been rewarded for handing larger roles to Edward Mujica and Joe Kelly. GM John Mozeliak says that, while he is open to looking at the trade market, "that would not be in the near future."
- Morosi also addressed the subject of Braves outfielder Justin Upton, wondering why exactly the Diamondbacks decided to trade him. While Diamondbacks managing general partner Ken Kendrick publicly called Upton "an enigma," and manager Kirk Gibson purportedly did not see eye-to-eye with the young slugger, Morosi says there was no single moment that apparently caused a rift. In case you missed it, Upton is off to something of a solid start for his new ballclub.
Minor Moves: Hoey, Curtis, Colon
On Tuesday, Corky Miller played in his first Major League game since 2010 and he didn't have to wait long for another, starting at catcher for the Reds tonight against the Nationals. The veteran backstop was added to the Reds' 40-man roster earlier this week, as noted by Baseball America's Matt Eddy in his roundup of the week's minor league transactions.
Here are the minor moves that took place today, with the latest at the top of the page…
- The Brewers released right-hander Jim Hoey earlier this week, Eddy reports. Milwaukee signed Hoey to a minor league deal in December. Hoey last pitched in the Majors with the Twins in 2011 and he owns a 7.02 ERA in 59 career innings with the Twins and Orioles.
- The Cardinals have purchased the contract of infielder Jermaine Curtis from Triple-A, the team announced. Curtis, a fifth round pick in the 2008 draft, has a .279/.384/.360 slash line over 1861 career PA in the Cardinals' system and he has spent most of his career playing second and third base. Curtis takes the roster spot of Matt Adams, who was placed on the 15-day DL in a corresponding move.
- On Wednesday, the Braves acquired Roman Colon from the Pirates in exchange for cash considerations. SB Nation's Talking Chop blog appears to have been the first to report the move. Colon, 33, has a 5.19 ERA in 187 1/3 career big league innings. In 1080 1/3 minor league innings, he's posted a 3.92 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Colon, who was originally signed by the Braves in 1995, was assigned to Triple-A Gwinnett and struggled in his first outing with the club.
GM Notes: Future Candidates, Zduriencik
ESPN's Jim Bowden, a former GM of both the Reds and Expos/Nationals, recently took a look at Frank Wren's rise to general manager of the Braves. Within his ESPN Insider piece, Bowden identifies three front office executives who, like Wren, are being groomed as successors to their current GMs. He also identifies three candidates who will likely become GMs in other organizations. Here are some highlights from the piece and other GM news…
- Bowden feels that Rockies senior VP Bill Geivett, Tigers VP/assistant GM Al Avila and Athletics assistant GM David Forst are all next in line to become the GM of their respective franchises. Geivett, in particular, is already handling the day-to-day operations, and Bowden feels it's just a matter of time before he's given the official title of general manager.
- Bowden asked present GMs around the game who the top GM candidates outside of their own organizations were. The results, in order, were Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine, Cubs VP of scouting and player development Jason McLeod and Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings. Bowden notes that each is blocked for one reason or another but would have plenty of interest from other clubs seeking a new GM.
- Jack Zduriencik's time as GM of the Mariners may be running out, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Mariners once again find themselves last in the American League in runs scored — the same place they've been for the previous four years under Zduriencik's watch. Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero have yet to establish themselves as big leaguers, and the trades of Cliff Lee and Doug Fister look poor in hindsight. Rosenthal notes that Hisashi Iwakuma is a coup for Zduriencik, and that help is close with Mike Zunino, Nick Franklin, James Paxton and Danny Hultzen at Triple-A. A breakthrough is needed soon, however, and Zduriencik conceded that he knows it.
Quick Hits: Maholm, Royals, Shields, Martin
Earlier today, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) looked at five early season surprises and wondered if they'd be able to sustain it across the entire year. The list begins with Paul Maholm of the Braves and Bowden notes that he wound up there only after Ryan Dempster used his no-trade clause to block a deal to Atlanta. The Braves instead traded prospects for another Cubs starter in Maholm and it worked out for them in a big way. The Braves later used the prospects offered in the Dempster trade to acquire Justin Upton from the D'Backs and Maholm has been more successful since the deal. Here's more from around baseball..
- Royals General Manager Dayton Moore spoke with ESPN's Buster Olney (audio link) on his latest podcast about his moves this winter. Moore explained that he pulled the trigger on the December deal for James Shields because he felt that the club needed to win through pitching. Meanwhile, he expects big things out of Wade Davis once he gets back into the flow of being in the rotation.
- While Russell Martin's offense hasn't shown up yet in 2013, the club's biggest free agent acquisition of the winter has shown something very important in Pittsburgh, writes Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs.
- In his latest mailbag, a reader asked Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star if the Blue Jays should look to sign someone in the wake of injuries to Jose Reyes and Brett Lawrie. In Griffin's eyes, there's no one on the open market right now that could step in and make a difference right away.
Minor Moves: Lillibridge, Lewis, Hamren, Weglarz
Here are Friday's minor moves from around the league…
- Brent Lillibridge has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Iowa by the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (on Twitter).
- The Cubs have also released right-hander Jensen Lewis, according to Muskat (Twitter link). The 28-year-old Lewis hasn't appeared in the Majors since 2010. He has a 3.68 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 198 Major League innings — all coming with the Indians.
- The Braves have signed right-hander Erik Hamren and first baseman Nick Weglarz to minor league deals, tweets Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Hamren, 26, threw 12 1/3 innings for the Padres in 2011 and posted a 4.38 ERA. Weglarz at one point ranked 58th on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list, but his stock has fallen since that 2009 list. He has a career .252/.375/.439 batting line in the minors.
NL East Notes: Wheeler, D’Arnaud, Simmons, Nolasco
The day after he was rocked for six earned runs in 1 2/3 innings, the Phillies placed lefty John Lannan on the DL with a strained quadriceps in his left knee. There's no word yet on who will replace him in the rotation, but he could be out six-to-eight weeks. Tonight, the fourth-place Phillies and Cole Hamels host Adam Wainwright and the first-place Cardinals. Elsewhere in the NL East:
- "Let's just say if this continues, certainly we've gotta start visiting that here pretty soon," Mets manager Terry Collins told Mike Francesa of WFAN in regard to a question about quality reinforcements including top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. The Mets' rotation has struggled beyond Matt Harvey and Jon Niese. GM Sandy Alderson was noncommittal, telling Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News, "It was always a case that it would be Zack’s sufficiency and the major-league team’s need. If those two things merge, the need and the performance converge, then it is a possibility. That could happen sooner or it could happen later." Ackert hears that people within the organization privately do not feel Wheeler is ready, plus the Mets would like to avoid the pitcher achieving Super Two status after the 2015 season (necessitating a promotion in mid-June or later).
- Meanwhile, another top Mets prospect won't be seeing Citi Field anytime soon. Catcher Travis D'Arnaud, acquired from Toronto in the R.A. Dickey trade, fractured a bone in his left foot yesterday in a Triple-A game.
- The Nationals' depth is on display, explains James Wagner of the Washington Post, with Kurt Suzuki seamlessly taking over as the starting catcher after Wilson Ramos suffered a hamstring injury.
- Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons is now represented by SFX, MLBTR has learned. He'd previously been with The Sparta Group, up until the August switch. A few new additions to our agency database include Jonathan Gray (advised by Jay Franklin of BBI Sports Group), Oswaldo Arcia (Martin Arburua), and Tony Cingrani (Curtis Dishman).
- "He's decent for a club that needs a starter. There are worse No. 5 starters in the big leagues right now, but he's not the pitcher he used to be," a scout told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in reference to the Marlins' Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco, Miami's highest-paid player by a long-shot at $11.5MM, is a strong candidate to be traded this summer.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Paul Maholm
Braves lefty Paul Maholm is off to an amazing start this season. He's begun the season with 20 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 20 and walking five. The 30-year-old has nice timing — he's eligible for free agency after the season.
Maholm was a free agent once before, when the Pirates chose a $750K buyout over his $9.75MM club option after the 2011 season. He was good that year, but his season ended in August due to a shoulder strain. Not only did the Cubs get him on a one-year deal, but they were also able to tack on a club option. That improved Maholm's trade value, and the Braves gave up a notable arm in Arodys Vizcaino to acquire him last July. Maholm finished strong with Atlanta, improving his strikeout rate over his final 11 starts. His $6.5MM club option was an easy decision to exercise last October.
Assuming the Braves do not extend Maholm during the season, they'll be faced with the question of whether to make a qualifying offer. The qualifying offer process had its first run last offseason, and the Braves were one of seven teams to make one (to Michael Bourn). That worked out well, and I think there's a good chance they'll make one to Maholm – even if the qualifying offer comes in near my projection of $14MM. Maholm does not generally feel worthy of a one-year offer in the $14MM range, though Hiroki Kuroda did better than that last winter. And while I don't know that Maholm's nice start in 2013 should change our perception of him, if he pitches at a 3.90 ERA from this point forward, his season ERA should come in below 3.50. Plus, if some of the increased strikeout rate sticks, Maholm can shake the stigma of being a pitch-to-contact guy.
So if Maholm enters free agency at age 31, coming off a sub-3.50 ERA campaign, he'll be expecting a multiyear deal this time. That means he should turn down the qualifying offer. Kyle Lohse is the cautionary tale: he was coming off 399 1/3 innings of 3.11 ball over two seasons, and faced a slow market due in part to being attached to a draft pick. But as many have pointed out, Lohse also entered the market with the standard Boras-inflated price tag, and teams shied away for that reason too. Maholm and agent Bo McKinnis might consider Lohse's three-year, $33MM contract to be close to fair value.
Lohse's contract was the fourth-largest signed by a pitcher last offseason, and the biggest for one who received a qualifying offer. Maholm will enter free agency as a 31-year-old, while Lohse was 34. A fourth guaranteed year could prove elusive for Maholm if he turns down a qualifying offer. Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez were able to get it, but both pitchers were under 30 and did not require forfeiture of a draft pick. Perhaps Maholm could at least top Lohse's $11MM average annual value.
The "best free agent starter" label goes a long way, however. Just ask C.J. Wilson, a good, 31-year-old pitcher who received a five-year, $77.5MM deal after the 2011 season, with draft pick compensation attached. There is a lot of baseball left to be played — most of it, actually — but if Maholm keeps rolling while Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum remain inconsistent, the Braves lefty is a dark horse candidate for the title of best free agent starter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.