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Lance McCullers Jr. To Begin Rehab Assignment

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Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Friday, reports Mark Berman of Fox 26 (Twitter link). He’s scheduled to throw two innings for Double-A Corpus Christi.

Pitchers can spend up to 30 days on rehab assignments, so the start of his work suggests an early-mid August timetable for his return to the big leagues if all goes as expected. McCullers has yet to pitch this year as he’s rehabbed from the flexor tendon forearm strain that cut short his 2021 postseason. While the club initially expressed hope he’d be ready for Opening Day, McCullers’ offseason rehab didn’t progress as quickly as expected. He returned to mound work by late May and has spent the past six weeks gradually building back towards game readiness.

Getting McCullers back in mid-August should afford him time to round into shape for the postseason. The Astros lead the Mariners by nine games in the AL West, and they’re even further clear of the Twins for the league’s #2 seed (and associated first-round bye). They’re a virtual playoff lock, and a healthy McCullers will only add to the team’s embarrassment of riches on the mound. The right-hander was arguably the team’s best pitcher last year, tossing 162 1/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball while punching out 27% of opponents.

Most teams would struggle to overcome the loss of an arm of that caliber, but the Astros have sported one of baseball’s top rotations. Houston’s starting staff trails only the Yankees in ERA (3.15) and the Padres in innings pitched (522 2/3). They’re seventh in strikeout rate (23.9%) and 11th in walk percentage (7%). Aside from McCullers, Houston’s rotation has stayed mostly healthy. Jake Odorizzi missed around six weeks with a heel injury, but each of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy has avoided the injured list. That sextet has combined to make all of the team’s starts, and Urquidy is the only member of the group with an ERA north of 3.76.

If everyone remains healthy, the Astros could consider kicking any of Odorizzi, Javier or Urquidy into relief. Houston’s bullpen has been similarly excellent, leading baseball with a 2.66 ERA. Their strong division lead should allow manager Dusty Baker to keep an eye on the innings totals for McCullers and Verlander (who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery) to ensure they hit the postseason at peak form.

Pre-Break Sweep Raises Questions About Marlins’ Deadline Outlook

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With the trade deadline two weeks away, a good portion of the league has a general idea of how they plan to approach things. 16 teams either occupy or are within two games of a playoff spot. Barring a massive losing streak coming out of the All-Star Break, those clubs figure to explore ways to improve the 2022 roster. 11 more teams are six or more games out of the playoff race, and with the exception of the Rangers, they’ve all been outscored by 30+ runs on the year. How aggressively they’ll sell will vary, but there’s little reason for those teams to not at least explore the possibility of dealing some impending free agents.

That leaves three teams in a somewhat nebulous middle ground. The Orioles and White Sox each sit 3 1/2 back in the AL Wild Card standings, while Chicago is three out in the division race. MLBTR examined the Orioles’ deadline dilemma last week, while the White Sox seem likely to stay the course and hope for better second halves from some key players. The final team between two and six games out is the Marlins, whose deadline approach figures to be tied quite heavily to how they perform in the first week out of the break.

Miami was within 2 1/2 games of a playoff spot as recently as last Friday. A weekend sweep at the hands of the Phillies, who moved into a tie for the NL’s third Wild Card spot in the process, dropped the Fish to 43-48 and 5 1/2 out. It was a brutal three games that dealt a real hit in the standings — the club’s playoff probability fell from 7.6% to 2.7% over the weekend, according to FanGraphs’ estimates — but the Marlins will have an opportunity to salvage their postseason hopes before the August 2 trade deadline. Miami kicks off the unofficial second half with a standalone game against Texas before hosting Pittsburgh (three games) and going to Cincinnati (four games). If the Marlins can take six of those eight contests, they’d be back around .500 heading into their pre-deadline series against the NL East-leading Mets. Going 4-4 or even 5-3 over those relatively soft first two series probably wouldn’t be enough to deter general manager Kim Ng and her group from dealing some near-term talent.

Another full teardown seems unlikely. Earlier this month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Miami owner Bruce Sherman didn’t want to orchestrate a deadline sell-off “barring a collapse” from the team. Exactly what constitutes a “collapse” in Sherman’s and Ng’s eyes obviously isn’t clear, but it seems unlikely one sweep would cause Miami to totally reevaluate whether they want to move a controllable star like Pablo López. Yet even if Miami isn’t willing to part with their most valuable trade pieces this summer, they could make a few decent role playing types available.

Who might be attainable if the Marlins do decide to sell?

Garrett Cooper, 1B/DH

Cooper has been frequently mentioned as a trade candidate on MLBTR’s pages over the past couple years. The 31-year-old is a consistently good hitter when healthy, but he’d missed notable time each season from 2018-21. Cooper has avoided the injured list this season (aside from a very brief stint for virus symptoms) and played his way to an All-Star Game for the first time. He owns a .283/.349/.434 line with seven home runs and 21 doubles through 327 plate appearances. Throughout his career, he’s shown a knack for running strong batting averages on balls in play. He makes a lot of hard contact, hits plenty of line drives and generally uses the whole field to hit for gap power, even as he’s never hit more than 15 homers in a season.

Miami has resisted trading Cooper to this point, but he’s down to his final season and a half of club control. He’s only making $2.5MM this year, but that’s likely to jump to the $5MM range for his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s certainly not onerous but the Marlins annually run a bottom ten payroll and this could be the best chance to recoup decent prospect value while Cooper’s healthy. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this month that the Dodgers could have interest.

Jon Berti, INF/OF

Berti’s a versatile speedster who’s having a career-best season. He’s hitting .271/.365/.375 with a pair of home runs and an excellent 12.2% walk rate across 222 plate appearances. That plate discipline has allowed Berti to reach base quite frequently, and he’s wrecked havoc once there. He has swiped 28 bases on the year, six more than anyone else in MLB despite only playing in around 64% of the team’s games. Berti’s slash-and-dash approach is rare, but he’s making it work and had earned a role at the top of the Miami lineup before going on the 10-day injured list late last week with a mild left groin strain.

The team hasn’t provided a timetable on his return, and perhaps the injury will rule him out as a trade candidate. If it’s minor enough he returns before the deadline and looks no worse for wear as a runner, though, it stands to reason he’ll draw interest from contenders. In addition to his baserunning acumen, he’s started multiple games at each of third base, second base, shortstop, and in left field this year. Miami can control him through 2025, so they don’t have to make a deal even if they move some other players, but he’s already 32 years old and having perhaps a career season. This’ll probably be the apex of his trade value, particularly since this year’s infield market is very thin.

Brian Anderson, 3B/COF

It’s unlikely the Marlins deal both Berti and Anderson, but they may have enough infield depth to feel comfortable parting with one of the two. Miami acquired Joey Wendle from the Rays over the winter, intending to supplant Anderson at third base after he underperformed in 2021. Wendle has been solid when healthy but missed a notable stretch between May and June with hamstring troubles. That afforded Anderson more playing time at the hot corner than anticipated, and he’s bounced back with a solid .262/.358/.393 showing across 193 plate appearances.

Anderson, 29, is controllable through the end of next season via arbitration. He’s already making $4.475MM this year and will earn a bit of a bump during his final season of arb-eligibility. As with Cooper, it’s possible Miami sees this as an opportunity to bring in some young talent while reallocating the projected 2023 salary elsewhere. Anderson is a good player, a well-rounded everyday third baseman. Yet Miami already has Wendle and Berti as options at the position, and they signed Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler to multi-year deals over the winter to plug the corner outfield. It’s a deep collection of corner players that might squeeze Anderson out of the mix.

Elieser Hernández, RHP

Hernández would be more of a change-of-scenery candidate than a solution for a contender. Throughout his big league tenure, he’s shown a strong combination of strikeouts and walks but given up far too many home runs. He’s taken that to a particular extreme in 2022, serving up a staggering 18 longballs in 53 innings (3.06 HR/9). That’s far and away a career-worst mark for a pitcher who was already one of the league’s most homer-prone arms. Unsurprisingly, Hernández has an ERA above 6.00 and lost his spot in the rotation in May.

Perhaps the home run troubles are so pronounced there won’t be much interest. Hernández hasn’t been able to keep the ball in the yard even in one of the game’s more spacious home parks. Still, we’ve seen teams place bets on pitchers like Andrew Heaney and Yusei Kikuchi over the years, valuing strikeout stuff and betting that tweaks to a pitcher’s repertoire and/or simple home run rate regression will even things out. Perhaps some team feels the same way about Hernández and will look to buy-low on a pitcher making just $1.325MM and arb-eligible through 2024.

Anthony Bass/Steven Okert/Dylan Floro, RP

Miami has a handful of capable if unexciting middle relief arms who should draw some attention from contenders. Bass, 34, is a prototypical journeyman but has posted an ERA below 4.00 in each of the past five seasons. He throws in the mid-90s, pounds the strike zone and misses bats at a slightly above-average rate. He’s making $3MM this year and has a matching club option for 2023.

Okert isn’t yet arbitration-eligible, while Floro is making $3MM and arb-eligible for one more season. A former minor league signee, Okert is a 31-year-old southpaw who has posted swinging strike rates north of 13% in each of the last two years. He’s fanned nearly 30% of batters faced as a result, and he’s handled hitters from both sides of the plate. Okert struggles with walks and home runs, but a southpaw who misses bats is always likely to attract some amount of interest. Floro is essentially the polar opposite. The 31-year-old righty doesn’t throw hard or generate many whiffs, but he’s a volume strike-thrower who consistently induces grounders at a strong clip.

Longer shot possibilities

Ng and her staff could also try to find a taker for first baseman Jesús Aguilar, who is set to hit free agency at the end of the year (assuming the team declines its end of a 2023 mutual option). Interest figures to be modest for a defensively-limited player who’s hitting just .252/.299/.401 while making $7.5MM, however. It’s possible they could flip Wendle or catcher Jacob Stallings, but Miami acquired both over the winter to upgrade the lineup. With each controllable for at least another season (and Stallings having a down year), that seems unlikely.

Coming out of the All-Star Break, the team will try to play its way out of any sort of sell-off. They’ll have a stretch of below .500 teams to start off, giving them an opportunity to get back into the playoff periphery. Getting swept heading into the break digs them a significant hole, though, and the Miami front office figures to field a number of calls on their veteran complementary players with dwindling windows of control.

Stephen Strasburg Not Expected To Return This Season

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Stephen Strasburg hasn’t pitched in over a month, and the Nationals transferred him to the 60-day injured list last week. That officially ruled him out until mid-August, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that he’s likely to miss the remainder of the 2022 season dealing with a nerve issue.

It’s not a huge surprise, as the Nats have previously suggested they feared he’s suffered a recurrence of the thoracic outlet syndrome that cut his 2021 campaign short. That necessitated surgery last July, although Heyman writes that Strasburg fortunately will not need to undergo another procedure. Nevertheless, it seems even a non-surgical rehab won’t afford the veteran righty an opportunity to make it back to the mound this year.

It’s the third consecutive lost season for Strasburg, who has been limited to eight appearances since the 2019 campaign wrapped up. He missed most of the abbreviated 2020 season due to carpal tunnel syndrome. After pitching just twice that year, he made five starts before being shut down by TOS last season. Strasburg spent about 11 months working his way back to the big leagues, returning for a 4 2/3-inning against the Marlins on June 9. While he came out of that start feeling fine, he suffered renewed rib discomfort during a bullpen session a few days later.

Injuries to Strasburg are among the reasons the past three seasons have played out disastrously for the Nationals. The three-time All-Star was in peak form in 2019, tossing 209 innings of 3.32 ERA ball during the regular season. He continued to shine during the postseason, helping the Nats to a championship and winning World Series MVP honors. Washington kept him around on a seven-year, $245MM free agent contract the ensuing winter.

While it was easy to understand the Nationals’ desire to keep Strasburg around coming off such an excellent season, that signing looks like an unfortunate major misstep in retrospect. Not only have the injuries generally kept him off the mound, he’s looked nothing like his old self during his limited action. Strasburg averaged north of 94 MPH on his fastball in 2019, but he’s worked in the 90-92 MPH range over the past three years. Coupled with the Max Scherzer trade and Patrick Corbin’s massive performance downturn, the excellent top-end starting pitching that anchored the Nats perennial contenders of the last decade has abandoned them. Washington’s rotation has an MLB-worst 5.74 ERA through the season’s unofficial first half.

Strasburg, 34 on Wednesday, remains under contract for another four years. He’s due $35MM annually through 2026, although a good portion of that salary is deferred with interest.

Frankie Montas To Start For A’s On Thursday

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Frankie Montas will make his return to the mound on Thursday, as the A’s announced him as the scheduled starter for the second game of a doubleheader against the Tigers. It’ll be the righty’s first appearance since he left his July 3 start due to what the team later announced as shoulder inflammation.

Oakland never placed Montas on the injured list, even as he missed more than what would’ve been the 15-day minimum. The injury wound up costing him a couple starts, but that he’ll be back this week is the most important thing for the A’s. Montas is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates, and the July 21 return should position him to take the ball twice or three times before the August 2 deadline.

That’s assuming the A’s hold onto Montas right until the deadline, although there’s little reason for the Oakland front office not to be open to moving him at any point. At 32-61, they’re likely headed for a last place finish in any event. Montas has a season and a half of arbitration-eligibility remaining, and the team’s abysmal first half makes it difficult to envision them contending next season either. With no chance the low-spending club signs Montas to a long-term extension, he’s a virtual lock to be flipped before the deadline assuming he’s healthy. The 29-year-old is apparently ready to retake the mound, and pitching-needy contenders will certainly keep a close eye on the quality of his stuff over his next start or two.

Before the minor shoulder flare-up, Montas was off to a second straight excellent season. Through 17 starts, he owns a 3.26 ERA with an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate. He’s walked only 6.2% of opponents and induced grounders on 47.1% of batted balls. Montas has been above-average at virtually everything, missing bats at a 12.9% clip while averaging north of 96 MPH on his fastball.

Over the next two weeks, a trio of controllable starters figure to generate plenty of headlines. Montas joins the Reds’ Luis Castillo as the top two arms likely to change hands. Castillo’s teammate, Tyler Mahle, is also a decent bet to be traded, although he’s dealing with a shoulder issue of his own. The Reds placed Mahle on the injured list on July 6, but indications are that he’ll join Montas in shortly returning to the rotation coming out of the Break.

The Cubs’ Second All-Star Trade Candidate

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Much of the focus in Wrigleyville over the next two weeks will be on Willson Contreras. That’s perfectly understandable. A career-long member of the organization, Contreras is set to don a Cubs uniform in the All-Star Game for the third (and very likely final) time tomorrow. He’s both one of the few remaining ties to the 2016 World Series-winning team and perhaps the game’s top trade candidate. An impending free agent whom the club hasn’t seemingly made much effort to sign long-term, he’s a virtual lock to be dealt by the August 2 deadline.

Contreras’ trade candidacy is so self-explanatory it has been discussed extensively for months. Yet the future of the other Cub headed to the Midsummer Classic will be equally fascinating to follow. Ian Happ is a first-time All-Star, a deserved National League representative amidst another productive year at the plate. The switch-hitting Happ carries a .274/.364/.443 line across 368 plate appearances through the season’s unofficial first half. By measure of wRC+, that production is 25 percentage points better than league average.

Happ had fared similarly in two of the past three years. He posted respective wRC+ marks of 126 and 130 in 2019 and 2020. Both those showings were in limited playing time, however. Happ spent a good chunk of the former season in Triple-A, where his .242/.364/.432 line was less impressive than his .264/.333/.564 work in a smaller MLB sample. The 2020 campaign, of course, was truncated because of the pandemic. Last year was Happ’s first full season of major league action since 2018, and he put together a .226/.323/.434 showing that was only marginally above average.

With Happ having held onto his 2019-20 rate production over a three-plus month stretch, one could argue he’s already had a career year in 2022. Perhaps even more importantly, the 27-year-old (28 next month) is getting to those results in a manner that appears more sustainable than he has in prior seasons. Happ’s game has featured quite a bit of swing-and-miss throughout his big league career, but he’s made notable strides in that department. He’s made contact on just under 76% of his swings this year. That’s four points higher than he has in any previous season, and he’s pulled just shy of league average in that regard. He’s paired that with a slightly more aggressive approach, particularly with regards to attacking pitches inside the strike zone.

Even slightly below-average bat-to-ball skills is workable for Happ, who does most other things well offensively. He’s always had solid strike zone awareness, and this season’s 11.4% walk rate is right in line with his career mark. That patience has consistently been paired with above-average power, with Happ posting higher than typical rates of hard contact in each of his six big league seasons. Traditionally, Happ’s power impact has skewed towards his time in the left-handed batters box. That hasn’t been the case this year, though, as he’s collected eight extra-base hits in 85 plate appearances as a right-handed hitter.

A switch-hitter with above-average patience and power and serviceable contact skills, Happ’s a well-rounded and valuable offensive player. He’s not elite, but he’s certainly a good hitter who’d upgrade plenty of teams’ corner outfield situations. Happ is miscast in center field (and on the infield, where he’d logged sporadic innings earlier in his career), but he’s a solid defender in left field. Statcast has pegged him as roughly league average at that position, while Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have him a touch above. Left field is far down the defensive spectrum, but Happ’s work at the plate has been plenty sufficient to clear the loftier bar necessary to be a productive regular.

There haven’t yet been substantive reports linking any contenders with Happ, but it stands to reason there have already been clubs in touch with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. The Red Sox, Braves, Twins and Dodgers are among the contenders that have gotten average or worse production out of their left fielders this year. Minnesota and L.A. are currently without their top preferred options (Trevor Larnach and Chris Taylor, respectively) due to injury.

The Blue Jays, Yankees and Padres have gotten solid work from left field but are looking for ways to upgrade their outfields generally. That’s perhaps also true of the Rays, who have Randy Arozarena in left but are expected to be without each of Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramírez for the foreseeable future. Other clubs like the Mariners, Mets and Guardians have solutions in left field but could look into adding another productive bat with question marks at designated hitter. That’s a broad range of possibilities Hoyer and his staff should be able to explore if they make Happ available this summer.

How motivated will the Cubs be to deal him? Trading Happ isn’t as urgent as moving Contreras will be. The latter is headed to the open market two months from now, while Happ is controllable for 2023 via arbitration. He’s playing this season on a $6.85MM salary, around $2.7MM of which will remain owed after the deadline. He’s sure to land a decent arbitration raise — likely putting next year’s tally in the $10-12MM range — before his first trip to the open market. That’s not an insignificant sum, but it’s still a strong bargain for a player of his caliber. Accordingly, the return package the Cubs receive for Happ is unlikely to ever be better than it will be this summer, when the club can market two playoff pushes to contenders. He’s young enough the Cubs could kick around extension possibilities, but there’s been no public indication that’s on the table.

One way or another, it feels like the appropriate time for the front office to pick a longer-term course of action regarding the former ninth overall pick. Merely holding onto Happ via arbitration doesn’t align with the club’s contention window. The Cubs may not intend to punt on 2023 entirely, but it’s hard to see a path to competitiveness. The team is 22 games under .500 at this season’s All-Star Break, and there are enough holes both at the bottom of the lineup and in the starting rotation they’re unlikely to be completely plugged in one offseason. 2024 feels like the more realistic target for a return to respectability, and Happ is slated to be a free agent by that point.

Unless the Cubs are particularly confident about the chances of getting a long-term deal done with his representatives at WME Baseball, the front office should actively explore the trade market over the next couple weeks. The possibility of dealing him next offseason means Hoyer and his staff don’t need to simply accept the top offer presented, but this feels like the best opportunity for the Cubs to land a marquee return. Happ’s remaining window of club control probably makes him a more valuable trade asset than Contreras, so dealing him may be the organization’s clearest path towards adding another Top 100-caliber prospect to the farm system.

Seeing Contreras and Happ depart in rapid succession would be disappointing to some members of the fanbase, but the organization’s massive sell-off last summer firmly signified this is the direction they’re headed. Plenty more change will be afoot in the next couple weeks, with a host of relievers and the franchise catcher all but assured to be moved. Happ very well might join that group in departing the North Side for a near-term contender as the Cubs continue to restock the minor leagues as part of an ongoing retooling effort.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Select Caleb Hamilton

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July 16: Scans have revealed a slight fracture in Jeffers’ thumb, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). The Twins backstop will require 6-to-8 weeks for the thumb to heal. The Twins will forge ahead with Sanchez and Hamilton as their catching tandem for the time being.

July 15: The Twins announced they’ve selected catcher/infielder Caleb Hamilton onto the big league roster, just minutes before tonight’s game against the White Sox. Ryan Jeffers lands on the 10-day injured list due to a right thumb contusion in a corresponding move. Minnesota already had a 40-man roster vacancy.

Hamilton, 27, reaches the major leagues for the first time. He entered pro ball as a 23rd-round draftee out of Oregon State University in 2016. Hamilton has spent six-plus seasons progressing up the minor league ladder, first reaching Triple-A in 2019 and logging the past few years in the upper minors. He’s spent this season with their top affiliate in St. Paul, hitting .252/.387/.491 with a massive 18% walk rate. He’s already set a personal-high with ten home runs across 194 plate appearances.

That breakout showing has come with a fair bit of swing-and-miss, as Hamilton has gone down on strikes in 27.8% of his trips to the dish. That’s been a concern throughout his professional tenure. Still, his combination of plate discipline, catching ability and this season’s improved power output will get him a look behind Gary Sánchez on the big league club.

Jeffers is having a decent third season in the majors. The 25-year-old backstop owns a .214/.291/.375 line across 214 plate appearances. That isn’t eye-popping offensive output, but it’s a bit better than this season’s .224/.293/.363 league average for catchers. Jeffers’ greater value is in what he’s provided behind the dish, as he’s a well-regarded defender who has rated favorably by Statcast’s pitch framing metrics this year.

Padres Targeting Outfield Help Before Deadline

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The Padres have long been expected to look for ways to bolster the offense this deadline season. The outfield looks like a particular area of concern, and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes that the club is indeed scouring the market for help on the grass.

San Diego has had a middle-of-the-pack offense overall, entering play Friday with a .241/.317/.374 team slash line. That includes a monster .307/.381/.525 showing from star third baseman Manny Machado, though, and the Friars’ production has been a bit top-heavy. Five players (Trent Grisham, Austin Nola, C.J. Abrams, José Azocar and Wil Myers) have taken 100+ plate appearances and been at least 15 percentage points worse than league average with the bat, by measure of wRC+. That leads to some areas rife for possible upgrades, particularly in an outfield that has been a bottom-ten unit with a .220/.303/.346 showing.

Few outfielders are more obvious trade candidates than Royals left fielder Andrew Benintendi. An impending free agent on a last place club, the 28-year-old looks like a virtual lock to change uniforms over the next few weeks. He’ll be a priority target for multiple outfield-needy teams, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Padres are among the clubs with interest.

Benintendi is hitting .317/.386/.401 through 363 plate appearances. He’s only connected on a trio of longballs, but he owns a strong 10.2% walk rate and has punched out in a career-low 14% of his trips. While he’s not making much impact from a power perspective, he brings a disciplined plate approach and makes plenty of contact. Benintendi has also rated well in left field in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved since landing in Kansas City, and he collected a Gold Glove and finished second in Fielding Bible Award voting at the position last season.

The Friars welcomed back left fielder Jurickson Profar from the concussion injured list this evening, just a week after he suffered the scary injury in a collision with Abrams. Profar will pair with Nomar Mazara in the corner outfield, with Grisham likely to continue as the regular center fielder. Each of Profar and Mazara is having a nice season, but they own more inconsistent career track records. Grisham has had a rough year, carrying a .192/.295/.334 line into play tonight.

Cassavell suggests a center field-capable player might be a target given Grisham’s struggles, although the market for center fielders is quite thin. Oakland’s Ramón Laureano is the top center fielder with a decent chance to be dealt, but he’d require a very strong return with three seasons of club control remaining. Benintendi’s teammate Michael A. Taylor would be a more affordable fallback, although he’s had a generally up-and-down track record at the plate for his career. Benintendi has a bit of experience in center field himself, but he hasn’t logged an inning there since 2019.

Payroll limitations loom over the Padres’ deadline outlook. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, San Diego’s luxury tax ledger is just underneath the $230MM base threshold. The organization hasn’t shown much appetite for surpassing that mark for a second consecutive season, raising questions about what kind of acquisitions president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff may be able to make. Benintendi, for instance, is playing on an $8.5MM salary. Around $3.4MM of that tab will still be owed come the August 2 trade deadline, and assuming that money would push San Diego into luxury tax territory if all else remained equal. Of course, the Padres could try to offload money of their own and/or only deal with teams willing to pay down the salary of traded players if they’re intent on avoiding the CBT.

No player the Padres add from outside the organization will be a more impactful addition than Fernando Tatís Jr. The star shortstop has yet to play this season after being diagnosed with a wrist fracture in Spring Training. He’s set for a step forward, though, as Preller told Ben & Woods on 93.7 The Fan that Tatís was set to begin his hitting progression today (Twitter link). He’ll continue to be reevaluated on a week-to-week basis, but it’s a notable development as he’d long awaited clearance to begin swinging a bat.

Tatís will certainly still need a fair bit of time to build back into game shape, and he’ll then have to embark on a minor league rehab assignment to get his timing down. In the interim, the Friars will continue to split shortstop time between Ha-Seong Kim and Abrams. The former has been the primary shortstop for most of the year. He’s played excellent defense throughout the season, and he’s caught fire of late at the dish. After hitting only .232/.327/.295 in June, Kim owns a .344/.421/.531 mark through the first couple weeks of July.

MLB Makes Counterproposal To MLBPA On International Draft

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10:08pm: In a follow-up piece, Drellich and Rosenthal report a host of additional specifics on each side’s proposals to date. Among the most notable aspects under consideration: the union has proposed to extend the posting window for players coming from Asian professional leagues from the current 30 days to 45 days. Both sides are also proposing the creation of prospect leagues to operate in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela (contingent on U.S. government regulations in the latter nation). MLB’s proposed draft would begin in 2024, while the union has offered to start at some point later in 2023.

Under the MLBPA proposal, teams would be unable to sign players for below slot value but would have the discretion to go above slot. That addresses any concerns the union would’ve had about teams not spending at least their minimum bonus pool. The league’s hard-slotted proposal would prevent teams from going over the allotment, capping overall spending while eliminating the cutting of pre-draft deals.

The Athletic’s piece is worth a read for many more details for those interested in the subject.

9:05pm: Major League Baseball made its latest counterproposal to the Players Association as the sides negotiate the possibility of a draft for international amateurs, report Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. It’s the league’s response to an offer put forth by the MLBPA last week. For the first time, the union showed a willingness to implement an international draft but only with certain conditions such as a higher bonus pool and the exemption of players from Japan.

The league’s proposal calls for a $181MM signing bonus pool for drafted players, according to the Athletic. That’s the same as the league’s previous offer, while Drellich and Rosenthal note the union has been seeking a $260MM pool. There is also a gap between the parties on the maximum signing bonus that would be available for undrafted players. The league is proposing a $20K cap, while the union’s proposal called for a $40K limit.

Additionally, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN reports there’s a discrepancy in slotting between the two sides. MLB is proposing fixed, hard-slotted bonuses for players depending on with which pick they’re selected. That’d differ from the domestic amateur draft, which features a set overall pool of money teams are freely allowed to spread around to draftees. The domestic draft comes with recommended slot values per pick, but teams can and do ignore those recommendations to pay certain players overslot while cutting below-slot deals with other selections. (Teams are permitted to exceed their bonus pool in the domestic draft, but doing so by more than 5% comes with future pick forfeitures no club has been willing to take on). The union, according to Gonzalez, is pushing for a similar soft-slotting system in the international draft.

Of course, the prospects involved are not perfectly analogous. International players would likely be draft-eligible at age-16, while domestic draft prospects must have graduated high school. Domestically, many high school prospects have the ability to play at a major college if they don’t sign with their drafting team. In contrast, most international amateurs won’t have that fallback.

Hard-slotting would keep teams from not offering to spend their entire allotment to take advantage of the players’ comparative lack of leverage, and it’d eliminate the possibility for teams to cut pre-draft deals with prospects. Yet it’d also reduce the ability to go over-slot for top players in the class. The league’s proposals during negotiations in March came with a $5.5125MM value for the first overall pick, for instance. The #1 pick in the 2022 domestic draft comes with an $8.842MM slot value, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com. Last year’s top selection, Henry Davis, signed for $6.5MM.

The union’s desired bonus pool would close the gap between the slot values of the selections between the international and domestic drafts. According to Gonzalez, MLB counters their proposed bonus pool would pay international players $23MM more collectively than what they received during the 2020-21 signing period, making it an economic improvement over the status quo. Of course, one of the trade-offs would be the forfeiture of players’ abilities to choose their first employer. If no draft is agreed upon, the existing system would remain in place. That features hard-capped bonus pools to limit overall team spending, but players are permitted to negotiate with all 30 clubs.

Gonzalez reports some movement the league made in more minor areas than the overall bonus allotment. The league has withdrawn its push for a mandatory one-year suspension for prospects who test positive for performance-enhancing drugs. MLB also proposed that any prospect who submitted a pre-draft physical would have to be offered the full slot value of their selection. Both sides are in agreement that a draft, if implemented, would last 20 rounds.

The parties have until July 25 to come to an agreement, with the draft likely to go into effect in 2024 if implemented. If a draft is agreed upon, the qualifying offer system would be removed, and teams would no longer have to forfeit selections for signing free agents.

Interestingly, there’ll also be a small change for the upcoming domestic draft. Bonuses for undrafted free agents have been capped at $20K in each of the past two seasons, but Kyle Glaser of Baseball America reports that’ll no longer be the case. Any expenditures north of $125K on a non-drafted player would count against a team’s pool limit, however. That’s a return to the pre-2020 setup.

MLB To Pay $185MM To Settle Class Action Minor League Suit

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Major League Baseball is set to pay $185MM to settle the class action lawsuit brought by minor league players nearly a decade ago, as Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report. Evan Drellich of the Athletic adds (Twitter link) that the league will lift any “contractual prohibitions against (teams) paying minor league players wages” for work outside of regular season play. The agreement is pending final approval from the court.

It’s the culmination of a suit first filed in 2014. Among other aspects of minor league pay, the litigation was concerned with the process of unpaid spring training. MLB came under public fire for arguing for players to remind unpaid for Spring Training as recently as February. That proved unsuccessful, however. The following month, the trial court rejected the league’s argument that minor leaguers were seasonal employees exempted from minimum wage laws.

The case was set for trial on June 1, but the parties came to a settlement agreement in mid-May. Terms were unreported at the time, but the league has apparently agreed to dole out $185MM in backpay. Passan notes that more than $120MM of that figure will be distributed among the class of players involved (with the rest presumably going to court costs and attorneys fees). One of the plaintiffs’ attorneys, former minor leaguer Garrett Broshuis, tells Drellich more than 20,000 players are expected to share those funds.

“This settlement is a monumental step for minor league players toward a fair and just compensation system,” Broshuis said (via Passan). “As a former minor league baseball player, I’ve seen first-hand the financial struggle players face while earning poverty-level wages — or no wages at all — in pursuit of their major league dream. For the better part of a decade, it has been my honor to help lead this fight and to shine a light on the unfair labor practices that have long plagued America’s pastime.”

MLB released a statement of its own. “We are only in the second year of a major overhaul of the 100-year-old player development system and have made great strides to improve the quality of life for minor league players,” a league spokesperson told Passan, referencing a 2021 uptick in minor league salaries and this season’s requirement for teams to provide housing to players. “We are proud that minor league players already receive significant benefits, including free housing, quality health care, multiple meals per day, college tuition assistance for those who wish to continue their education and over $450 million in annual signing bonuses for first-year players. We are pleased we were able to come to a mutually agreeable resolution but are unable to comment on the details until the agreement is formally approved by the Court.”

The proposed lifting of the ban on payment outside of regular season play, meanwhile, has the potential to impact countless of players moving forward. Whether and how many teams will begin to pay minor leaguers for things like Spring Training and instructional league is unclear. Nevertheless, the removal of the ban has to be viewed as a win for groups fighting for better pay for minor leaguers, most of whom are not part of the Major League Baseball Players Association and do not have a union of their own.

Rays Activate Luis Patino, Transfer Mike Zunino To 60-Day IL

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The Rays reinstated right-hander Luis Patiño from the 60-day injured list, optioning Tommy Romero to Triple-A Durham in a corresponding move. In order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, catcher Mike Zunino has been transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

Patiño missed around three months after straining his oblique during his first start of the season. The 22-year-old returns to action with a start tonight against the surging Orioles. Acquired as part of the Blake Snell swap over the 2020-21 offseason, Patiño started 15 of his 19 appearances during his first year in Tampa Bay. He worked to a 4.31 ERA across 77 1/3 innings, striking out a roughly average 22.2% of opponents against a serviceable 8.7% walk rate. Patiño was a bit home run prone, but it was still a promising showing for a pitcher who won’t turn 23 years old until October.

Tampa Bay has been navigating a brutal stretch of health issues on the pitching side. They still have eight pitchers on the 60-day injured list, and three more (Jeffrey Springs, Josh Fleming and Shane Baz) have landed on the 15-day IL within the past week. Fleming and Baz are each set to miss significant time; the former is likely to lose upwards of a month due to an oblique strain of his own, while the latter won’t even throw for at least four weeks after spraining his elbow.

It hasn’t been much rosier on the position player side, as Zunino is one of five regulars on the shelf. The veteran backstop has been out since June 10 with left shoulder inflammation. The club has expressed concern he could be dealing with a thoracic outlet issue, although he’s undergone Botox treatment in hopes of avoiding season-ending surgery. In either event, Zunino doesn’t seem close to a return to the field, so his IL transfer isn’t much of a surprise. He’ll be ineligible to return to the big leagues before the second week of August.

Zunino had struggled before his IL stint, hitting a career-worst .148/.195/.304 through 36 games. That’s particularly disappointing on the heels of a 33-homer 2021 campaign, and he’s headed towards free agency on the heels of what looks like a mostly lost season. The Rays have turned to Francisco Mejía and the recently-acquired Christian Bethancourt as their pairing behind the dish in his absence.

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