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Rangers Unlikely To Trade Martin Perez

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The Rangers sit seven games back in the Wild Card race, sporting a 42-49 record. While they’ve outscored opponents by seven runs on the year and have shown some signs of progress after back-to-back last place finishes, they’re unlikely to reach the postseason in 2022. Impending free agents on non-playoff teams are straightforward trade candidates at every trade deadline, making a Martín Pérez swap viable on paper.

However, both the left-hander and Texas general manager Chris Young have expressed a desire to extend their relationship beyond this season. Talks have not yet gotten underway, but the mutual interest in a long-term contract could keep the Rangers from flipping him to a contender. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Pérez is indeed “unlikely to be traded” this summer. Grant suggests the sides could delay the start of extension talks until after the August 2 trade deadline in recognition of the front office’s more pressing need to address other trade possibilities before circling back to try to hammer out an extension next month.

For the front office to forgo the opportunity to deal Pérez this summer before even opening extension talks with his representatives, they’d have to be confident in their ability to work out a long-term deal. Whether the qualifying offer system will remain in place is to be determined over the coming days — the union and league have until next Monday to agree on an international draft that would eliminate the QO — but Pérez would be a longshot QO candidate anyhow. While he’s fresh off a first career All-Star selection and owns a sparkling 2.68 ERA through 111 innings this season, he’d allowed more than four earned runs per nine in each season between 2014-21. He’s demonstrated strong control and induced lofty ground-ball rates, but he’s still missing bats and striking batters out at a lower than average rate.

If the club doesn’t (or is unable to) issue him a QO, Texas would run the risk of losing Pérez for nothing in free agency (barring some other form of draft compensation under a new system attached to the international draft). At the same time, the veteran hurler has gone on record a few times in recent weeks about his desire to stick in Arlington. It’s understandable if Young and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels are bullish on their chances of keeping him around beyond 2022.

It could be an interesting deadline in general for the Rangers, as if the intent is to keep Perez, they’re lacking in obvious trade candidates despite their record and long-shot playoff odds. Rental relievers like Matt Moore and Garrett Richards could be available — Richards has struggled of late but was quite sharp until his past two appearances — but the majority of the Texas roster seems likely to remain in place. If anything, given the team’s desire to push into a win-now mindset and return to contention as soon as 2023, the Rangers could look to gear up for that post-2022 run and add pieces that are controllable beyond the current season, much as they did over the winter when inking Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray to long-term deals.

Carlos Rodon Reaches 110 Innings Pitched, Vests Right To Opt Out After This Season

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Giants All-Star hurler Carlos Rodón tossed five frames tonight against the Dodgers, reaching the 110-inning threshold for the season. That’s a notable marker for the southpaw. Rodón’s two-year, $44MM contract with San Francisco affords him the right to opt out after this year upon reaching 110 innings.

Rodón has clearly been trending towards the mark for a while, as he’s stayed healthy and taken the ball 19 times. While not unexpected, his getting to that point nevertheless has key ramifications for next winter’s free agent class. Rodón is dominating opponents for a second straight season, and he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation seem all but certain to test the market over the offseason. Barring injury or an out-of-nowhere performance downturn in the second half, Rodón is a lock to handily surpass the one year and $22.5MM that’ll remain on his deal with San Francisco.

Indeed, the former third overall pick is trending towards reaching the market as one of the best, if not the best, arms in the class. He won’t turn 30 years old until December, and he owns a sub-3.00 ERA for a second straight season. Rodón provided the White Sox with 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball last season, striking out an incredible 34.6% of batters faced against a career-low 6.7% walk rate. He looked on his way to Cy Young consideration before spending a couple weeks on the injured list in mid-August with shoulder fatigue. He remained effective upon his return but did so with diminished velocity, sitting in the 91-94 MPH range with his heater after working in the 95-98 MPH territory for the bulk of the year. His slider saw a similar dip in speed from 85-87 MPH to 82-84.

Rodón’s breakout came on the heels of two injury-ruined seasons. He made just 11 combined appearances between 2019-20, losing significant chunks of those respective campaigns with elbow and shoulder problems. Paired with his late-2021 yellow flags, the market devalued Rodón enough he didn’t find a long-term pact to his liking. The White Sox elected not to make him an $18.4MM qualifying offer, and he lingered on the open market until after the lockout. Rodón and agent Scott Boras expressed an early desire for a multi-year guarantee. The Giants put one on the table, but the two-year term with the vesting player option served as more of a modified pillow contract than a lengthy commitment. Rodón is making $21.5MM this year and has now earned the right to explore the market next offseason.

That late-offseason move has paid off brilliantly for San Francisco. Not only has he stayed healthy, Rodón has more or less doubled down on last year’s breakout. He carries a 2.86 ERA while fanning 30.8% of opponents with an 8.3% walk rate. That’s slightly worse rate production than he managed on Chicago’s south side, but it’s still top-of-the-rotation caliber and far better than any year he’d had before 2021. He’s also regained last year’s peak velocity, averaging 96 MPH on his four-seam while throwing his slider at 85.4 MPH.

Rodón’s work has been instrumental for a San Francisco club hanging right around the edges of the Wild Card race. The Giants entered play tonight half a game back of the National League’s final playoff spot. Rodón and Logan Webb have dazzled, helping to compensate for the loss of Anthony DeSclafani to a season-ending ankle issue. While various clubs would surely have interest in snagging Rodón for the stretch run, San Francisco seems likelier to add to the roster in hopes of snagging a playoff berth.

That’s all the more true because the Giants would likely be in line for draft compensation were Rodón to depart in free agency. Because Chicago elected not to tag him with a qualifying offer last year, he’d be eligible for a QO this winter — assuming the system remains in place. MLB and the Players Association are negotiating an international draft that, if implemented, would result in the removal of the QO system. How they’d compensate teams for free agent departures under a new arrangement is unclear. If no draft is agreed upon and the existing setup remains, Rodón would be a lock for a QO if he opts out. He’s not going to forfeit a $22.5MM salary to accept a subsequent one-year offer that’s likely to check in somewhere in the $18MM-20MM range.

Rodón’s place in next winter’s market will be influenced by how he performs over the second half, of course. He seemed trending towards a long-term deal at this point on the calendar last year, but the August shoulder concerns sidetracked that. That Rodón has continued to excel lends more faith to the idea he’s truly broken out as one of the game’s best arms. Should he surpass 150 innings and finish this season healthy, he’ll be one of the game’s marquee free agents.

Joe Musgrove looks as if he’ll be Rodón’s biggest competition for the title of top pitcher on the market, unless extension talks with the Padres culminate in a deal. Jacob deGrom has continued to maintain he plans to opt out of his deal, but he’s gone more than a year between MLB appearances and will hit free agency in advance of his age-35 season. deGrom, the sport’s best pitcher when healthy, looks likely to receive the loftiest average annual salary if he holds up down the stretch, but Rodón’s and Musgrove’s comparative youth could land them a larger guarantee over a longer term. Mike Clevinger, Zach Eflin, Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw and Nathan Eovaldi are among the other starters who are slated to hit the open market as part of a deep class.

Rangers Agree To Overslot Deal With Fourth-Rounder Brock Porter

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The Rangers have agreed to terms with fourth-round pick Brock Porter on a deal for just under $4MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Levi Weaver of the Athletic first reported earlier in the week that Porter was likely to sign for a bonus around $3.7MM. Wherever the number precisely checks in, it’s well overslot for the fourth round. The 109th overall pick, with which he was selected, comes with a slot value of just $560.2K. Porter’s deal will land seven-to-eight times north of that mark.

That Porter’s bonus shattered the slot value isn’t a coincidence, of course. While he didn’t hear his name called until well into the draft’s second day, he was unanimously regarded by public prospect evaluators as a first-round talent. He placed between 11th and 24th on the pre-draft rankings at each of Baseball America, ESPN, The Athletic, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs. On talent, Porter fit in the middle of the first round. His reported bonus, which is commensurate with the slot values of the picks in the 15-18 range, more accurately reflects his regard than does his draft position.

Porter, 19, is a right-hander out of a Michigan high school. He’s among the top arms in this year’s class, with both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline slotting him as their #1 pitcher in a draft that skewed position player heavy. The 6’3″ hurler can run his fastball into the upper-90s and draws strong marks for his secondary offerings. Evaluators suggest both his changeup and slider should be above-average to plus offerings. He’s physically projectable and has a solid strike-throwing track record, giving him mid-rotation or better upside.

High school pitching is a particularly risky draft demographic, but Porter has among the higher ceilings of anyone in the class. It’s easy to see why the Rangers prioritized buying him out of his commitment to Clemson. Texas made the surprising decision to take Kumar Rocker with the third overall pick, agreeing to terms with the former Vanderbilt star on a $5.2MM bonus that was nearly $2.5MM below slot. Those savings and then some were reallocated to Porter, whom the Rangers took in the fourth round but with their second pick of the draft. Texas forfeited their second and third-round selections as payment for signing qualified free agents Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last offseason. Other teams were apparently unwilling to match the Rangers bonus offer to Porter in the middle rounds, which is why Texas was able to get him in the fourth.

Rocker and Porter add another pair of high-upside arms to a Rangers system that also placed last year’s #2 overall pick Jack Leiter and Owen White among Baseball America’s recent Top 100 prospects. Former first-rounder Cole Winn was ranked among the league’s top arms heading into this season, although his stock has dipped a bit as he’s been hit hard at Triple-A. There’ll surely be some ups and downs amongst that group, but it’s a collection of potential quality starters whom the club hopes will progressively bolster the position player core that has started to emerge at the big league level.

Nationals Listening To Offers On Kyle Finnegan

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With Juan Soto on the market, the Nationals will find themselves in plenty of headlines over the next two weeks. Soto is the crown jewel of this year’s potential trade candidates, and the Nats are also expected to part with impending free agent hitters Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz before the August 2 trade deadline.

While that trio (Soto in particular) will be the group that most intrigues fans of rival teams, they’re not the only trade candidates on the roster. The Nats are likely to be open to moving virtually any of their veteran role players, and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports they’re prepared to field offers on reliever Kyle Finnegan. One of Washington’s higher-leverage arms, Finnegan should hold some appeal to bullpen-needy contenders.

Signed to a major league contract over the 2019-20 offseason after a lengthy stint in the A’s farm system, Finnegan has spent the past few years in the nation’s capital. The right-hander has posted an ERA below 4.00 in all three big league seasons, and he’s generally been a durable arm for manager Dave Martinez. Aside from a two-week injured list due to a minor hamstring strain last year, Finnegan has avoided the IL as a big leaguer.

As for his appeal to rival clubs, that’s rather straightforward. Finnegan throws in the mid-90s, and he’s averaging a career-best 96.6 MPH on his sinker this season. Throughout his time in the big leagues, he’s posted slightly above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks, and he’s missing bats at a personal-best rate in 2022. Finnegan has punched out 28.3% of batters faced this year, a solid uptick over the 23.7% career mark he carried into the season. He has generated swinging strikes on 13.1% of his offerings, a bit above the 11.7% league average for relievers. His 47.9% grounder rate is also a few points higher than the typical mark.

While Finnegan has flashed the swing-and-miss and grounder upside in prior years, he’d been plagued by control issues from 2020-21. Finnegan doled out free passes to around 12% of opponents in each of his first two seasons, but he’s shown much improved strike-throwing through this season’s first few months. The Texas State product owns an 8.6% walk rate, a hair below the league average. A spike in home runs has resulted in a career-worst 3.93 ERA across 36 2/3 innings, but Finnegan’s combination of arm strength and solid underlying numbers make him an intriguing target for contenders.

His value is also buoyed by his affordability. Finnegan is making barely more than the league minimum salary, having not yet qualified for arbitration. He’ll reach arbitration for the first time at the end of the year and remains controllable through 2025. That window means the Nationals aren’t going to be as motivated to deal him this summer as they’ll be for some of their rental players, but there’s also little reason for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff not to discuss him with other teams. Finnegan’s late-blooming status means he’s soon to turn 31 years old. That the Nats are discussing Soto with other clubs suggests they’re open to a multi-year rebuild — and a Soto trade, if it happens, would formally signify they’re embarking on that course — and a good but not elite reliever isn’t going to be the kind of player the franchise prioritizes as a building block.

That would’ve also been true of fellow high-leverage arm Tanner Rainey, a hard-throwing righty who’s likewise arbitration-eligible through 2025. Rainey’s trade candidacy was dashed last week when he landed on the 60-day injured list with a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow. Dougherty writes that the Nationals had been preparing to shop Rainey this month, but he’s not expected to return this season and could require Tommy John surgery. That saps virtually all of his trade value, making Finnegan the undisputed top player in the Washington bullpen.

Presumably, the Nationals will also make their other late-game arms available. Víctor Arano has excellent strikeout and walk numbers but a 5.01 ERA. Steve Cishek, who’s playing this season on a $1.75MM salary, looks likely to move for a modest return. He’s missing bats, holding right-handed hitters to a .212/.307/.313 line, and will hit free agency at the end of the year. Carl Edwards Jr., who cracked the roster after signing a minor league deal, has a solid combination of strikeouts and grounders and could draw a bit of interest himself.

Best Fits For A Whit Merrifield Trade

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For the past few seasons, there’s been loose deadline speculation around the possibility of the Royals dealing Whit Merrifield. To this point, Kansas City has resisted that possibility. A career-long member of an organization that is generally among the game’s most loyal, Merrifield was a late-bloomer who signed an affordable early-career extension. That allowed the Royals to keep him at little cost through his prime seasons, which included consecutive MLB-leading hit totals in 2018-19 and a pair of All-Star appearances.

As recently as last season, Merrifield participated in the Midsummer Classic. He went on to appear in all 162 games, led baseball with 42 doubles and swiped an AL-best 40 bases. The Royals hoped he’d be a top-of-the-order sparkplug for a more competitive team in 2022, but that hasn’t panned out. Not only has the team found itself 20 games below .500 at the All-Star Break, Merrrifield is having a career-worst season. He owns a .240/.292/.343 line through 373 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 percentage points below league average by measure of wRC+.

Merrifield is signed through the end of next season. The Royals restructured his deal during Spring Training, so he’s making $7MM this year (about $2.73MM of which will be paid out after the August 2 deadline) and $6.75MM next season. The deal also contains a $500K buyout on a 2024 mutual option. With the affordable control and Merrifield’s trade value at a low ebb, the Royals don’t have to force a trade over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last month the club was more amenable to dealing him than they’ve been in years past.

Even during a down year, Merrifield should draw attention from other clubs. He remains a high-contact bat and an excellent baserunner, having stolen 14 more bags while being caught just twice. He’s typically a solid defender at both second base and in the corner outfield, although public metrics are down a bit on his first-half performance in that regard. Merrifield has also looked more like himself of late, hitting .269/.322/.392 with 15 doubles and 11 steals in 65 games since the start of May. His April was abysmal, but he’s been productive for the past two and a half months and has a quality career body of work.

If the Royals were to seriously market Merrifield over the next two weeks, which teams stand out as the best fits? With a season and a half of remaining control, it’ll have to be a team that realistically feels it can compete by 2023. The Pirates, Reds, A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Nationals can probably be ruled out on that alone. The Rockies and Rangers have their sights set on competing next year, but neither is likely to preemptively acquire a second baseman this summer. The Tigers are perhaps a bit more plausible given the tough season they’ve gotten from Jonathan Schoop, but they’re going to be more focused on dealing some players than acquiring a notable veteran from a division rival with an eye towards 2023.

Of the remaining two-thirds of the league’s teams, which seem likeliest to be in touch with Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Piccolo?

Best Fits

Mariners — Seattle has won 14 in a row to go into the All-Star Break owners of a 51-42 record. It’s still an uphill battle to catch the Astros in the AL West, but they’re firmly in the Wild Card mix and likely to look for ways to upgrade over the next two weeks. No position stands out more than second base, where Seattle has gotten a collective .212/.279/.299 line. Offseason acquisition Adam Frazier has underwhelmed, as has last year’s deadline pickup Abraham Toro. The M’s could move Ty France to second base, but he’s better suited for first base/designated hitter duty. Frazier’s headed towards free agency after this season anyhow, and Merrifield could be an affordable upgrade for both the remainder of this season and next.

White Sox — The White Sox have had a generally underwhelming season, but they’re coming out of the Break just three games back in the AL Central. The second base tandem of Leury García and Josh Harrison hasn’t panned out, although Harrison has been alright over the past month. Merrifield would still be a definitive upgrade there, and his relatively modest salary should be particularly appealing to a team already sporting a franchise-record payroll. Would the Royals be willing to deal Merrifield inside the division? They’d surely like to compete next season, so perhaps that’ll give them some hesitance, but he’d only be under contract for one season of plausible contention.

Dodgers — Heyman reported last week that the Dodgers have already been in touch with the Royals. Second base isn’t really a need for L.A., with former top prospect Gavin Lux enjoying his awaited breakout season. Lux has seen some time in left field of late while the Dodgers have been without Chris Taylor, though, and their offseason pickup of Hanser Alberto as a righty-hitting utilityman hasn’t worked. Landing Merrifield may lead to a bit of a position player surplus once Taylor returns from the injured list, but the Dodgers haven’t been deterred by having “too much talent” in recent years.

Giants — The Giants are in a similar boat as their archrivals. They have a handful of second base-caliber players, and righties Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada are playing well. Tommy La Stella is off to a rough start after opening the year on the injured list, and the Giants have already been tied to Brandon Drury.  That suggests they’re open to adding another righty-swinging versatile infielder. Merrifield doesn’t have Drury’s power, but his high-contact game may be a better fit for Oracle Park.

Brewers — The Brewers are expected to look for another bat this summer as they battle the Cardinals at the top of the NL Central. Kolten Wong has been a slightly below-average hitter this year, and his public defensive metrics have tumbled. That’s not too dissimilar from Merrifield, and perhaps Milwaukee will feel he’s not much (if any) of an upgrade over Wong. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently wrote that the Brew Crew could listen to offers on Wong even as they look for other ways to add to the offense.

Longer Shots

Orioles — The Orioles are within 3 1/2 games of a Wild Card spot despite their second basemen hitting only .196/.269/.363. Rougned Odor is just a stopgap, and the O’s are likely to look for a better second baseman this offseason. Actually reaching the playoffs this year is unlikely, but Merrifield is affordable and would be a good fit for a 2023 team that could more earnestly compete. With the 2022 club at least hanging around, there’s an argument for GM Mike Elias and his staff to strike a little early for a controllable player.

Angels — It’s a similar argument for the Angels, although their involvement in the bidding would be strictly about 2023. The Halos have gotten nothing from second base this year, one of the reasons they’re set to miss the playoffs again. Next season will be a turning point, with Shohei Ohtani slated to reach free agency after the year. They’re going to have to aggressively address the roster’s flaws over the next eight months. Nothing stops them from adding controllable players this summer while still dealing rentals like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen.

Rays — The Rays haven’t gotten much out of second base this year, but that’s largely because Brandon Lowe missed more than a month. With Lowe back, the keystone is no longer a concern, although Tampa Bay’s myriad outfield injuries could cause them to look at a versatile infield/outfield type.

Braves — Atlanta hasn’t gotten much from Orlando Arcia since Ozzie Albies broke his foot. They acquired Robinson Canó as a stopgap and anticipate Albies returning late next month. That probably reduces the urgency to add a second baseman, although they’re in a tight battle with the Mets and could work Merrifield into the corner outfield once Albies returns.

Phillies — Continuing the theme of “contenders whose second basemen got hurt,” the Phils have been without Jean Segura since May. He’s expected back this year, though, and the presence of top prospect Bryson Stott gives Philadelphia some cover until then. Bullpen or center field help seems likelier.

No Pressing Second Base Need

Each of the Yankees, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox have everyday second basemen locked into the lineup. Merrifield’s ability to play the corner outfield could make him an option for some of this group — the Yankees and Padres, in particular, could look into outfield additions — but they seem less likely to be motivated than teams searching for a second baseman. Much of Merrifield’s appeal lies in his defensive flexibility, and pigeon-holing him into the corner outfield reduces a good bit of his value. Contenders looking for an impactful corner bat to upgrade the middle of the order seem likely to find cleaner fits elsewhere.

Merrifield’s vaccination status also impacts some teams’ pursuits, most notably the Blue Jays. He was not permitted to travel to Canada for the Royals series in Toronto last week, and similar concerns reportedly diminished the Yankees’ interest in teammate Andrew Benintendi. Merrifield told reporters he’d be open to reconsidering his stance on getting vaccinated if dealt to a playoff contender that could have to travel across the border for meaningful games. He stopped short of firmly declaring he’d do so, however, and questions about his availability for those games could be of concern for some teams.

There’s no guarantee the Royals will actually follow through on a Merrifield trade. This is far from the first time his name has made the rounds on the rumor circuit, and Kansas City has yet to pull the trigger on a deal (or seemingly come close). If the front office takes a different approach this summer, teams like the Mariners, White Sox, Dodgers, Giants and Brewers feel like the most plausible suitors.

No Extension Talks Yet Between Rangers, Martin Perez

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With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, the Rangers will have to make a decision on how to proceed with Martín Pérez. Signed to a one-year deal over the offseason, the left-hander is an impending free agent on a team that currently sits 7 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. That makes him a fairly obvious trade candidate, although both the hurler and Texas general manager Chris Young have expressed interest in working out an extension.

Pérez reiterated his interest when speaking with Robert Murray of FanSided, but he indicated that talks had yet to get underway. “We haven’t talked anything about an extension,” Pérez told Murray. “I signed with Texas again. That was my home for a long time. I feel great there. But I don’t know what their plans are. … I’d like to stay. It’s the same when you go back home and you always want to stay.”

As he suggested, Pérez is plenty familiar with the organization. He began his career as a Ranger, developing into one of the game’s top pitching prospects and reaching the majors for the first time in 2012. He spent six-plus seasons in Arlington before heading to Minnesota in advance of the 2019 campaign. After a year with the Twins and two seasons with the Red Sox, he returned to his original stomping grounds on a buy-low $4MM deal coming out of the lockout.

The Rangers have gotten well beyond their money’s worth on that pact. Pérez pitched his way to the All-Star Game for the first time, tossing 111 innings of 2.68 ERA ball through 18 starts. He hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 in any season since 2013, but he appears on his way to achieving that mark this year. That should draw him some attention from pitching-needy contenders over the next couple weeks, particularly given the underwhelming recent runs from some of the other rental arms available.

That said, it’s unlikely that rival teams will view Pérez as the middle or top of the rotation arm that sterling ERA would suggest. He owns a career-best strikeout percentage, but it’s still a couple ticks below average at 20.7%. This year’s 8.4% swinging strike rate isn’t much different than his marks of prior seasons. He’s inducing ground-balls at a greater than 51% clip, but he’s done so in years past without the same kind of run prevention success. Indeed, a minuscule 6.7% home run per fly ball rate looks to be a key catalyst for his better results. A pitcher’s home run rate tends to fluctuate, and clubs will surely be skeptical he can keep the ball in the yard at this extent.

It’s not fair to chalk Pérez’s better numbers up entirely to luck, however. He’s working with career-best control, only walking 6.6% of opponents. He’s also tweaked his repertoire, ramping up the usage of his sinker while scaling back a cutter that had been a particularly homer-prone offering last season. That change has been most dramatic against right-handed batters, who gave Pérez fits last season. After being tattooed at a .308/.368/.514 clip without the platoon advantage, he’s holding righties to a manageable .242/.302/.359 line in 2022. He’s gotten better results against lefty hitters as well, but his improvement against righties has been starker.

There aren’t many recent precedents for pitchers coming off seasons similar to the one Pérez is having. Between 2019-21, only five pitchers (minimum 100 innings) even posted an ERA under 4.00 with strikeout, walk and grounder rates in the realm of those Pérez has posted this season. Brett Anderson hit free agency after the 2019 campaign and signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Brewers. Anderson, though, had a spottier durability track record than Pérez has had and had an even more extreme low-strikeout approach.

Wade Miley’s 2021 numbers — 3.36 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk percentage, 49.3% ground-ball rate — are probably the closest recent parallel. Miley wasn’t a free agent last winter. He was, however, waived by the Reds and claimed by the Cubs, who promptly exercised a $10MM club option. That kind of annual salary could be a reasonable range for Pérez, but he and his representatives are likely to seek a multi-year deal. Miley’s salary came without the benefit of open market bidding, after all, and he’s playing this season at age 35. Pérez, on the other hand, won’t turn 32 until shortly before Opening Day in 2023.

Texas’ 2023 rotation outlook is largely unclear. Jon Gray will have one spot after signing a four-year deal last offseason. Dane Dunning looks like a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm. The Rangers haven’t gotten much else beyond that duo and Pérez, with each of Taylor Hearn, Glenn Otto and Spencer Howard struggling mightily. The organization would love if top prospects Cole Winn and Jack Leiter proved ready for the majors early next year, but both righties are scuffling in the upper minors. For the Rangers to contend for a playoff spot next season, they’ll probably need to add at least one starter from outside the organization even if they re-sign Pérez.

Presumably, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and Young will be in touch with the southpaw’s camp shortly. Assuming there’s truly mutual extension interest, it behooves the club to have an idea of the kind of contract that could be necessary to keep him off the free agent market before August 2. How far the gap is to be bridged in extension talks will surely play a role in the front office’s decision whether to shop him to contenders for the stretch run.

Twins, First-Rounder Brooks Lee Agree To Terms

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The Twins are in agreement with first-round pick Brooks Lee, reports Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily (Twitter link). The former Cal Poly star will receive a $5.675MM signing bonus.

Lee, 21, fell to the Twins at eighth overall on Sunday, a bit of a surprise. He placed among the draft’s top six prospects in the estimation of Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN, FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline. All but ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel slotted Lee as the top college prospect in the class (McDaniel had him second behind Kevin Parada), with unanimous praise for his hit tool projection. Baseball America suggests the switch-hitting infielder could develop into a plus-plus hitter (a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale) at his peak. Other outlets weren’t quite so bullish, but they all project him as an above-average hitter at minimum while raving about his awareness of the strike zone.

That was on full display at Cal Poly, where Lee dominated mid-major pitching. After barely playing in 2020 due to the combination of an early-season injury and the pandemic season cancelation, he spent the following two seasons as the Mustangs everyday shortstop. He posted an OPS north of 1.000 in each year, combining to hit .351/.426/.647 with 64 walks and 63 strikeouts through 538 collegiate plate appearances. The Big West hasn’t been one of the country’s better conferences in recent seasons, but Lee also raked over a 21-game stint in the Cape Cod League last summer and drew strong visual evaluations from scouts for his offensive upside.

Lee isn’t a great runner, and most outlets project he’ll move off shortstop either before or shortly after reaching the majors. He’s a fluid defender with good hands, however, so the general expectation is that he’ll remain on the infield at either second or third base.

The eight overall pick comes with a slot value of $5.4424MM, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com. Lee’s bonus comes in a bit above that mark, although it’s a touch lower than the slot value of the preceding pick. Minnesota’s overall bonus pool is just north of $10MM.

Guardians Should Be In The Market For Another Hitter

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The Guardians hit the All-Star Break on a high note, sweeping the Tigers in a weekend series to pull to 46-44. Coupled with a slump from the Twins, Cleveland moved within two games in the AL Central standings and pulled to within 2 1/2 in the Wild Card race. They’ve outscored opponents by five runs over the course of the year, about what one would expect from a team that’s two games above .500.

Slightly above-average play is enough to hang around the playoff picture, particularly for a team in the sport’s weakest division. The team has done enough the front office is likely to explore ways to add over the coming weeks, particularly if they hold their own during the next three series. Cleveland comes out of the break with sets against the White Sox, Red Sox and Rays — each of whom is a direct competitor in the Wild Card race (with Chicago obviously also a division threat).

The Guardians have been a middle-of-the-pack team in most areas. They rank 17th with a 99 wRC+, with their .249/.314/.384 slash line checking in a percentage point below average. They’re a matching 17th in runs scored (391) and in rotation ERA (4.00) and strikeout/walk rate differential (13.4 percentage points). The bullpen and defense each check in around the back half of the top ten by most metrics.

Despite their generally well-rounded nature, a few positions stand out as areas for possible upgrade. Like most contenders, they could look to add some help at the back-of-the-rotation. Aaron Civale has been hit hard and went on the injured list last week after spraining his wrist; sixth starter Konnor Pilkington has struggled, and Zach Plesac has been just alright over the past two seasons after his excellent 2020 showing. There’s room for a back-end pickup, particularly if Civale is set to miss an extended stretch, but the Guardians have an abundance of pitching prospects and a strong developmental track record that could reduce their urgency to play for a top-of-the-market arm.

On the position player side, both center field and catcher have been offensive black holes this year. Neither seems like an area the Guardians will feel they have to address, though. Myles Straw signed a long-term extension just last winter. He’s not hitting, but he’s at least playing excellent defense that’ll keep him towards the bottom of the order on a regular basis. That’s even more true of Austin Hedges, but Cleveland has long prioritized a catcher’s work behind the plate than what he does at it. They’d probably be interested if the A’s made controllable defensive stalwart Sean Murphy available. A deal for the top rental, bat-first Willson Contreras, feels less characteristic, although one can make an argument for the Guardians to make an earnest pursuit of the Cubs backstop.

Even if they sit out the center field and catcher markets, the Guardians should be in on the top corner bats available this summer. They’ve gotten decent production out of the corner outfield, with rookies Steven Kwan, Óscar González and Nolan Jones all hitting the ground running. Cleveland doesn’t have to push any of them out of the lineup immediately, but there’s enough uncertainty with each that regression in any case wouldn’t be a huge surprise. Kwan has settled in as an average hitter after an otherworldly first week. González, who has missed the past three weeks with an intercostal strain, has solid numbers and obvious physical tools but has chased over 40% of pitches he’s been thrown outside the strike zone through his first 32 MLB games. Jones has an excellent minor league track record but just ten games of big league experience thus far.

Each of Kwan, Jones and González (when healthy) has done enough to stay in the lineup, but adding a complementary veteran with a longer track record would still fit. In the near term, that player could step in at designated hitter and cut into the playing time of Franmil Reyes, who is having by far the worst season of his career. Through 243 plate appearances, Reyes owns a .216/.259/.357 line. He’s hit eight home runs but is striking out at a 39.9% clip that ranks as the highest rate of any player with 200+ trips to the plate. That’d be insufficient production even were he bringing other value to the table, but it’s particularly striking for a player who’s primarily limited to designated hitter duties.

There are reasons for the Guardians to hold out some hope for Reyes to get back on track. He’d been an above-average hitter during each of his first four big league seasons, including a 37-homer campaign back in 2019. He’s still posting huge exit velocities and hard contact numbers, no surprise for a player of his strength. Reyes is swinging and missing more than ever this season, but he’s never been a good contact hitter. He’s thrived in the past in spite of strikeouts based on his power, and his numbers have ticked up since he returned from a three-week injured list stint. After hitting .195/.255/.278 through mid-May, Reyes owns a .245/.265/.468 showing over the past month.

He’s still struck out in 40 of his 98 plate appearances since returning, however, drawing only three walks over that stretch. With the Guardians right on the fringes of contention, they may not be able to afford him too much leeway to cut his swing-and-miss to more manageable levels. Adding a veteran bat would allow manager Terry Francona to reduce Reyes’ immediate playing time while guarding against regression elsewhere around the diamond. An outfield-capable player may be ideal given the limited track records of González and Jones, but were the team to add a DH/first base-only type, Reyes himself could be a corner outfield option if he can get on track. Josh Naylor has been excellent at first base this season, but he entered 2022 with an inconsistent MLB track record. As with the outfielders, there won’t be any thought of replacing Naylor right now, but some insurance in case he tails off in the second half could be welcome.

As far as potential targets, Josh Bell is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates. The Nationals are sure to move him, although the Guardians could balk at taking on the approximate $3.9MM remaining on his salary from the deadline onwards. Trey Mancini is having a nice year and would draw interest if the Orioles deal him, but Baltimore’s recent run of solid play at least raises a question about his availability. The Marlins could fall far enough out of the picture to deal Garrett Cooper, who’ll only make around $1MM for the stretch run and is arbitration-eligible for a final time next winter. The D-Backs are willing to trade Christian Walker. He’s not much costlier than Cooper and can be kept around for two more years via arbitration.

None of that group is likely to require an overwhelming prospect return, and the Guardians abundance of pitching prospects and upper minors infielders could allow them to part with an interesting player or two from the middle tier of the farm system. None would burden the long-term payroll outlook, and they’d go a long way towards fortifying a solid 2022 roster that finds itself right in the thick of the playoff race with two and a half months left.

Giants, Kyle Tyler Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants recently signed right-hander Kyle Tyler to a minor league contract, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com. He elected free agency after being outrighted off the Padres roster for the second time earlier this month.

Tyler, 25, has had a tumultuous past few months. A former Angels draftee, he reached the big leagues with the Halos late last season. Los Angeles designated him for assignment coming out of the lockout, kicking off a series of transactions. Tyler went to the Red Sox, Padres, back to the Angels then back to the Padres on waivers within a span of three weeks. He finally stuck on the Friars 40-man roster for a couple months, but he was again designated for assignment in early June.

After passing through waivers unclaimed, Tyler was assigned outright to Triple-A El Paso. San Diego reselected him to the majors a few days later but eventually DFA him again. Tyler again cleared waivers, and the second outright afforded him the right to head to free agency rather than return to El Paso. He did so and will now try to pitch his way back to the big leagues in San Francisco.

Tyler has seven MLB appearances under his belt: five with last year’s Angels, two with the Padres this season. He’s allowed only four runs through 16 1/3 innings, but he owns a mediocre 8:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has averaged just 91 MPH on his fastball in that time. To his credit, Tyler has typically posted excellent numbers in the minors, a big reason he reached the majors only three-plus years after falling to the 20th round in the draft. He posted a 3.38 ERA with a solid 24.3% strikeout rate and a modest 7.3% walk percentage through 15 appearances (12 starts) in Double-A last season.

This year, Tyler has run into some uncharacteristic control woes at the minors’ top level. He’s walked more than one-fifth of opponents through 21 2/3 frames in El Paso. Strike-throwing had been a strength before this season, however, and the Giants will see if he can get on track in a new environment. Tyler has worked mostly in relief this season but has a fair bit of pre-2022 starting experience, so San Francisco can keep him as a depth option in either role.

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