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Free Agent Profile: Ivan Nova

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In July, Ivan Nova was nearly a forgotten man. He’d started the season in the Yankees bullpen, then struggled after heading to the rotation in May. Leave it to the Pirates and their pitcher-fixing ways to change that, however. Nova excelled down the stretch after heading to Pittsburgh in a low-profile deadline trade, and he now looks like one of the top starting pitchers available in a paper-thin free agent market.

Pros/Strengths

If we had to edit this section down to six words, it would read, “everything he did with the Pirates.” In 64 2/3 innings with the Bucs, Nova posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 7.2 K/9, a 52.3% ground ball rate and an astounding 0.4 BB/9. (Or, to put that differently, he walked three batters in a span of more than two months.) With the Bucs, Nova focused on throwing first-pitch strikes and improving his release point, and the results speak for themselves. If he’s able to retain the improvements he made, he’ll make a strong addition to pretty much any rotation, and at the relatively young age of 29, there’s hope that he’ll be able to continue contributing for years to come, especially since his ability to get ground balls gives him something of a floor.

Ivan NovaAs I noted in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece in late August, Nova also has precedent on his side. Other pitchers the Pirates have fixed (either in perception or reality) have continued to pitch at least reasonably well elsewhere, including J.A. Happ, Edinson Volquez and Mark Melancon. The Jays are surely happy with their $36MM investment in Happ, whose situation parallels Nova’s in many ways — the Bucs acquired Happ in an under-the-radar deadline deal in 2015, and he immediately transformed from a forgettable back-of-the-rotation type to a strike-throwing stopper. He maintained much of that improvement this year in Toronto, posting a 3.18 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 195 innings and attaining a level of sustained success he’d never experienced before. His contract, seemingly at least somewhat of a risk at the time, now looks like a bargain. Nova’s representatives at the Legacy Agency can point to Happ’s example to show that Nova’s success is unlikely to turn out to be a fluke, or a temporary benefit of working with Ray Searage and the rest of the Pirates’ coaching staff.

Cons/Weaknesses

Again in six words: “everything he did before the Pirates.” There is nothing in Nova’s pre-August track record — besides, perhaps, his consistent ground-ball ability — to suggest he’s worthy of the kind of contract he seems likely to command this winter. The relatively high prospect price the Bucs paid to get Nova (they gave up outfielder Tito Polo and lefty Stephen Tarpley as players to be named) suggests Nova did have value on the trade market. Still, if Nova’s Pirates numbers speak for themselves, his pre-trade numbers do too — before the deal, he’d posted a 4.90 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 97 1/3 innings with the Yankees. His statistics before that (he had a career 4.33 ERA, 6.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 before 2016, only topping 170 innings in a season one time) are fine but likewise uninspiring. The team that signs Nova will be taking a very expensive gamble that his excellent two months with the Pirates represent his real talent level going forward. That’s a dicey proposition for a number of reasons. Two months is a small sample, and it’s easy to imagine Nova having walked a few more batters in his Pirates tenure and posting a line that looked distinctly less impressive.

Nova had also allowed 19 home runs in 2016 before the trade. Home-run rate isn’t the best indicator of future performance for a pitcher, but Nova also allowed hard contact at a high 35.6% rate. It’s possible to argue that Nova’s success with the Pirates was largely a result of his feeling free to throw more strikes due to the generally homer-unfriendly context in which the Bucs play. (It’s hard to throw as many strikes as Nova did with the Pirates without worrying about the ball flying out of the park every so often.) He might therefore be less attractive target for teams in homer-happy ballparks or divisions.

Personal

Nova was born in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, and as a child, he initially played shortstop and outfield. In 2004, after a growth spurt landed him on the prospect radar, he signed for $80K with the Yankees, the team he’d rooted for as a youngster. He is married to former Miss Dominican Republic Ada de la Cruz.

Market

Nova’s future appears especially bright given the quality of his free agent competition. The only starting pitcher who decisively looks like a better buy is Rich Hill, and even that might be debatable, since Hill is 36. Jeremy Hellickson is the same age as Nova and has a better track record, but lacks the upside Nova demonstrated in his strong finish. Also, since Nova was traded this season, he can’t be extended a qualifying offer, unlike Hellickson.

The Pirates need pitching help and attempted to extend Nova before season’s end, although they reportedly balked at Nova’s asking price of five years and $70MM. They could get involved again this winter, and Nova appears amenable to returning. Signing Nova will almost certainly require the Pirates to make their largest-ever commitment to a free agent, and their recent dumping of Francisco Liriano (whose last free agent contract is the Bucs’ current largest ever) in a dubious salary-shedding trade might indicate they won’t be willing or able to pay Nova what he might be able to get elsewhere. The Angels, Rangers, Twins and Braves also stand out as teams that could have interest.

Expected Contract

Ian Kennedy got five years and $70MM from the Royals last offseason, and Nova’s identical reported asking price seems to have been determined with that deal in mind. It seems unlikely Nova will actually get that much, even in a weak market, since Kennedy had a much longer track record both in number and quality of innings pitched. Nova could get close, though, perhaps receiving a similar average annual value to Kennedy with a slightly shorter commitment. There’s plenty of precedent for free agent starting pitchers in the upper middle of a typical market getting four years at an AAV of $12MM-$14MM. We’re guessing Nova will receive four years and $52MM, which would put his contract in line with recent deals for Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Rangers are coming off a 95-win season, and they’ll return plenty of impact players to a 2017 team that could be strong yet again. This offseason will be a challenge for GM Jon Daniels, though, as he attempts to augment a roster that has a number of glaring needs.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Prince Fielder, 1B: $96MM through 2020 (Fielder will remain on disabled list, with an insurance policy covering $9MM per year and the Tigers covering $6MM per year for the rest of his contract)
  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $88MM through 2022 (plus 2023 club/vesting option)
  • Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $82MM through 2020
  • Cole Hamels, SP: $51MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout on 2019 club/vesting option)
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B: $36MM through 2018
  • Yu Darvish, SP: $11MM through 2017
  • Martin Perez, SP: $6.85MM through 2017 (includes $2.45MM buyout on 2018 club option)
  • Tony Barnette, RP: $2MM through 2017 (includes $250K buyout on 2018 club option)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • Derek Holland, SP: $11MM or $1.5MM buyout (should the Rangers exercise the option, they’ll also have an option for 2018)
  • Jonathan Lucroy, C: $5.25MM or $250K buyout

Free Agents

Rangers Depth Chart; Rangers Payroll Information

For a very successful team, the 2016 Rangers had more than their share of problems. Their bullpen was a disaster early in the season. Their starting rotation was very weak beyond Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and (when he was healthy) Yu Darvish. And, of course, 2016 saw the sad end of the career of Prince Fielder, in whom the Rangers had made a significant investment. Overall, the team scored 765 runs and allowed 757, for a Pythagorean record of just 82-80. The Rangers certainly could contend again in 2017, and they’ll surely approach their offseason with that in mind. But their roster currently looks a bit closer to that of a problematic 82-80 team than a 95-win juggernaut.

Following a midseason trade for Jonathan Lucroy, the Rangers have plenty of catching help. Lucroy’s $5.25MM option was a trivially easy decision after Lucroy batted .276/.345/.539 for them down the stretch. (That Lucroy, who is now 30 and has nearly seven years of service time, will still be paid just $5.25MM next season is one of the game’s great mysteries.) Lucroy will have a capable backup in Robinson Chirinos, who still will only receive a projected $2.1MM despite producing 2.3 fWAR in less than a season’s worth of at bats over the last two years.

Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre will man the leftmost three infield positions, with the still-youthful Jurickson Profar available to back up any of those three spots as needed. Those positions will require little attention this offseason. But the same can’t be said of first base, where the Rangers are set to lose Mitch Moreland. Moreland is now 31, is coming off an underwhelming .233/.298/.422 season, and has merely been a good complementary player even in his best years. The Rangers would probably be best served simply to let him walk.

They have an obvious replacement for Moreland, too, in Joey Gallo, a prolific minor league slugger who played 32 games at first base at Triple-A Round Rock last season. (Gallo recently injured his hamstring playing winter ball in Venezuela, but there’s no indication that injury will affect his 2017 season.) Gallo’s power is tantalizing — he’s hit at least 26 home runs in all of the last four seasons. He does, however, come with significant downside risk, since he only batted .240 for Round Rock last year, has struck out a ton even in the minors, and has hit just .173 through 153 plate appearances in the big leagues. It’s perhaps no surprise, then, that the Rangers have indicated that they’d prefer to have him start 2017 in the minors. Ryan Rua provides the Rangers with another option at first, and could come in particularly handy since he bats righty while Gallo is a lefty. But his track record is somewhat limited as well. Profar is another possibility at first base.

The Rangers are also thin at DH, since Carlos Beltran is set to depart. Re-signing Beltran (who wants to keep playing next season) would be an obvious move to improve at DH, but it wouldn’t have the benefit of also providing insurance at first. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests one solution would be a reunion with Mike Napoli, who bats right-handed and has had a solid year with Cleveland. A more up-market target could be Edwin Encarnacion, whose big bat would be an exciting fit in Texas and who has already been connected to the Rangers. In any case, acquiring one player for first base or DH would seem to be nearly mandatory.

Ian DesmondWith Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara, the corner outfield appears set. But it’s unclear who will stand between them, with both Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez eligible for free agency. Either of them could return. Desmond appears to be the higher priority of the two, although the team has expressed interest in re-signing Gomez as well. The Rangers extended Desmond a qualifying offer, and he would be wise to decline it, his misadventures with the qualifying offer last offseason notwithstanding. He’s still just 31 and produced 3.3 fWAR while earning praise for his clubhouse presence, so he seems like a good bet to land a hefty multi-year deal this winter. Gomez, too, should be sought after on the free agent market, thanks to his turnaround following his release by the Astros. Expect the Rangers to be in touch with both players until or unless they sign elsewhere.

Texas will need to balance its issues in center field and 1B/DH with its needs in the rotation. Hamels, Darvish and Perez will be back, but there’s flux beyond that. The Rangers paid Derek Holland a $1.5MM buyout rather than exercising his $11MM option. Holland’s last strong, healthy season was 2013, and he’s a different player than he was then — his fastball velocity has dropped about two MPH, and his offspeed stuff isn’t nearly as effective. He only recently turned 30, but he produced just a 4.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in yet another injury-riddled season in 2016. While he could theoretically return, the Rangers surely hope to do better.

They also face the departure of 37-year-old Colby Lewis, who’ll return to the open market. Like Holland, Lewis had health problems this season, missing two months due to a lat issue. Perhaps the Rangers could bring Lewis back on another cheap one-year deal, but he’s showing serious signs of decline, despite a 3.71 ERA last season. His strikeout rate fell for the third straight season to 5.6 K/9, coinciding with a velocity drop to around the 87-MPH range. He also remains a fly-ball pitcher, making him somewhat of an awkward fit for the Rangers’ home ballpark.

The Rangers’ other rotation options are dubious. A.J. Griffin deserves congratulations for pitching 119 innings in 2016 after missing two years to injury, but he also produced just a 5.07 ERA, with peripherals to match; he’ll likely be non-tendered. Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez likewise showed little in their limited opportunities. Top prospect Yohander Mendez looks like he could eventually develop into a solid lefty rotation option, but given his very limited experience above Class A+, he should probably start 2017 in Triple-A.

That means the Rangers will head into this offseason looking for at least one starter. As has been amply discussed here at MLBTR, the free agent market for starting pitching is weak. That doesn’t mean the Rangers won’t pursue higher-ranked pitchers in a market topped by Rich Hill, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson, and surprising entrant Jason Hammel. But they’ll also likely check out the trade market, which they might favor anyway, since their current 2017 payroll (including Lucroy and several key arbitration-eligible players) already amounts to somewhere around $130MM.

Despite paying fairly hefty prospect prices in recent trades (particularly the pair of deals that netted Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Hamels and Jake Diekman in return for Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Ryan Cordell, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher, Jake Thompson and Matt Harrison), the Rangers have more than enough prospect depth to make a trade, thanks in part to their heavy spending in Latin America in recent years. One wonders, then, if there might be a trade match with the Padres — Friars GM A.J. Preller was previously a Rangers exec who played a key role in the franchise’s Latin spending, and he has Tyson Ross (who is currently recovering from surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome) to deal.

There are, of course, other interesting pitchers potentially available, including many with less problematic health records. And the Rangers could certainly aim to acquire a high-grade arm if they are open-minded about who they’re willing to deal. There have been no specific indications that the Rangers might consider trading Profar (and Daniels has said he envisions keeping him), but a willingness to include Profar in potential deals would surely pique the interest of clubs considering trading starting pitching who’d prefer major league pieces in return.

The Rangers’ bullpen wasn’t a strength in 2016, and the team was especially poor in the first half of the season, when Tom Wilhelmsen, Cesar Ramos, closer Shawn Tolleson and others struggled greatly. Texas relievers mostly recovered in the second half, though, and the bullpen looks to be in reasonably good shape going forward. Tolleson, long ago replaced at closer by Sam Dyson, has already been outrighted. Dyson, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio, Jake Diekman and Tony Barnette all pitched well this season and are slated to return, and Jeffress (an underrated part of the Lucroy trade) provides the Rangers with another controllable bullpen asset. Keone Kela, Dario Alvarez and Jose Leclerc also all showed at least some potential to blossom into reliable bullpen cogs at some point. As with many contending teams, the Rangers surely would not mind adding a bit of relief depth, and could reasonably consider pursuing some of the top-available closers. (If they were to add someone, they would probably prefer a righty.) But they now have enough talent that it doesn’t need to be a top priority.

Nonetheless, the Rangers appear headed toward a tricky offseason. They have plenty of talent, and figure to contend in 2017 yet again. But they also have a number of key positions yet to fill, and will face a tough free agent market with some apparent payroll constraints. Their offseason will be defined by how they navigate those choppy waters as they attempt to find center field, first base and starting pitching help.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Marlins To Decline Fernando Rodney’s Option

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The Marlins will decline reliever Fernando Rodney’s 2017 option, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter) — and as various reporters, including MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, have previously suggested would occur. Previous reporting had indicated the Marlins were interested in trading Rodney, but it appears they couldn’t find a deal they like, and Rodney will become a free agent. The Marlins will pay Rodney a $400K buyout.

Rodney’s contract, originally signed with the Padres, called for the option to carry a base salary of $2MM, but he cleared bonuses in 2016 that brought the value of the option to $4.5MM. That was, evidently, more than the Marlins were willing to pay, which perhaps is understandable — Rodney will be 40 before the start of the 2017 season, and he struggled in Miami, posting a 5.89 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 36 2/3 innings there after arriving in a June trade for prospect Chris Paddack. He eventually lost the closer role to A.J. Ramos, the same pitcher he had originally displaced.

Nonetheless, Rodney pitched very well for the Padres at the start of the season, and his overall numbers for the year (3.44 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 in 65 1/3 innings) suggest he’ll attract real interest on the open market this winter, particularly given his experience closing. He still gets grounders, too, with a 55.2% groundball rate on the year. If teams believe that the veteran can tamp down his home run susceptibility — 16.1% HR/FB rate in 2015, 13.5% last year — then he ought to hold quite a bit of appeal, particularly with his average fastball still averaging better then 95 mph.

Yankees Already In Communication With Aroldis Chapman

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Already at this early point in the offseason, Yankees exec Brian Cashman confirms that the team has been in touch with former closer Aroldis Chapman, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes. Cashman has been in contact with representatives of other players as well, and seems to be focusing on pitching this offseason.

“There are certainly some names out there that are pretty good,” Cashman says. “It’s probably a thin starting pitching market, there are a number of different relievers in the market; certainly more relievers in this free agency than there are starters of quality. The trade route is obviously an area we’ll see what develops over time.”

The Yankees, of course, traded four players to the Reds for Cashman last offseason, and he posted a 2.01 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 20 saves in 31 1/3 innings with New York before heading to Chicago for a package headlined by top infield prospect Gleyber Torres. Chapman was then even more dominant for the Cubs, becoming a key part of their route to the World Series.

The Yankees finished the season with Dellin Betances as their closer, and Betances struggled in the last few weeks of the season (although, like many players who started the 2016 campaign in the Yankees’ bullpen, he had a very strong year overall. Cashman says his interest in Chapman (and, perhaps, in other top relief targets) is not closely related to Betances’ performance as closer. Rather, Cashman says he just wants to add more good players. Last year’s excellent bullpen headed by Chapman, Betances and Andrew Miller perhaps shows that it’s hard to have too much of a good thing.

“I just want to bring in more talent,” Cashman says. “It’s too early to say who’s going to do what; it depends how the winter goes. [Betances] finished the season as our closer, so until or unless I find something better — which is pretty hard to do — he would be the closer if the season started today. But it’s not.”

Cashman also says he would like to add to the Yankees’ existing rotation talent, which includes Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia alongside a long list of less established possibilities.

“I’d rather have certainty,” says Cashman. “I’d rather feel like we have one of the best rotations in the game and I’d like to have one of the best bullpens in the game. It’s going to take some time, and in some cases, some growing pains.”

Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees Among Teams Set To Watch Greg Holland Showcase

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SATURDAY: The Yankees will also send representatives to watch Holland on Monday, according to George A. King III of the New York Post.

FRIDAY: The Red Sox are also showing some interest and will attend the showcase, which is scheduled for Monday, per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Likewise, the Rangers will be on hand, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets.

THURSDAY: The Giants are “legitimately intrigued” by former Royals closer Greg Holland and will scout his upcoming showcase, Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group tweets. Holland’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said Holland was throwing in the low 90s and would hold a showcase within the next week.

Holland missed the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery near the end of the 2015 season. He understandably struggled somewhat that year while pitching through a UCL tear, posting a 3.83 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and a too-high 5.2 BB/9 while throwing his fastball an average of about two MPH slower than the mid-90s heater he’d thrown previously. Before that, though, he was dominant, posting a combined 1.86 ERA, 12.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 from 2011 through 2014.

If Holland is now mostly or fully healthy, it’s for the first time in awhile. But it’s easy to see why the Giants (and, surely, many other teams) would have significant interest. He has an extremely impressive track record, and he’ll be far enough removed from surgery by next March that it’s easy to imagine he could reemerge as an effective, or even terrific, reliever if everything goes well. The Royals have also been connected to Holland, and it seems likely other teams besides San Francisco and Kansas City will enter the fray too.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Matheny, Lyons, Padres

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This offseason’s Yoenis Cespedes sweepstakes could come down to the Mets, Nationals, Giants and Blue Jays, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. A return to New York makes sense, but only if the Mets are willing to make a commitment long enough to lure Cespedes back, Puma writes. The Nats competed for Cespedes last year, but this winter, signing Cespedes would require them to move Bryce Harper back to center field. The Giants, meanwhile, have an outfield opening with Angel Pagan set to depart, and the Blue Jays have a number of key offensive free agents, although it’s unclear whether they’ll seek to add a new talent as expensive as Cespedes will likely be. Here’s more from around the game.

  • Extending Mike Matheny (which the Cardinals did on Thursday) was a logical choice, Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cards have had five straight winning seasons to begin Matheny’s tenure, and his previous three-year deal would have made him a lame duck for the 2017 season. Many Cardinals fans aren’t sold on Matheny, but Hochman thinks Matheny could improve his reputation by being more open with the press, the way Joe Maddon or Terry Francona are.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says lefty Tyler Lyons’ knee injury is “not responding as quickly as we hoped,” via Hochman. Lyons spent the previous three seasons bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. He pitched 2016 entirely as a reliever was in the midst of a solid campaign (3.38 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 in 48 innings) before he missed the last two months with a stress reaction. He is out of options in the spring.
  • The Padres have “some interest” in retaining Adam Rosales, Jon Jay, Clayton Richard and Edwin Jackson, but will not be extending qualifying offers to any of them, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. That comes as no surprise, since none of them profile as the kinds of upper-echelon players who typically get qualifying offers. Nonetheless, several of them were useful for the Padres in 2016. Rosales and Jay were both solid complementary pieces — Rosales hit a surprising 13 home runs in 248 plate appearances while playing six positions, and Jay produced a fine .339 OBP, although he missed two months with a fractured forearm. Richard, too, helped after arriving as a free agent in August, posting a 2.52 ERA in 53 2/3 innings down the stretch, although with underwhelming peripherals. Of the four, only Jackson clearly struggled, with a 5.89 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings. Jackson has voiced interest in returning to the Padres next season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/5/16

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Here are today’s minor moves from around the game.

  • The Astros have announced that they’ve selected the contract of Dominican lefty Reymin Guduan, preventing him from hitting minor league free agency. The 24-year-old struggled at Triple-A Fresno in 2016 and has a long history of control problems, with an extremely high career 7.1 BB/9. He did, however, have a brilliant stretch at Double-A Corpus Christi last season (with 19 strikeouts and three walks over 13 innings), and he can apparently touch 100 MPH, a very rare quality in a lefty.
  • The Pirates have announced that they’ve added righty Dovydas Neverauskas and 1B/OF Jose Osuna to their 40-man roster, protecting them from the Rule 5 Draft. In 2009, the Bucs signed Neverauskas as a 16-year-old, and he made his way through their system slowly — perhaps unsurprisingly, given that his home country of Lithuania isn’t exactly a baseball hotbed. He transitioned from starting to relieving in 2015, and emerged as a hard-throwing relief prospect in a fine 2016 season in which he represented the Bucs in the Futures Game and posted a 3.10 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 58 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A. His year was sullied when he was arrested in a bar fight in Toledo in August, but the Pirates still appear to believe in his potential. The 23-year-old Osuna also spent the season at Double-A and Triple-A and held his own, hitting .279/.331/.457. He’s never had an exceptional minor league season and does not rate among the Bucs’ top prospects, but he’s been reliably productive and hit lefties very well last season.

Royals Decline Luke Hochevar’s Option

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The Royals have announced they’ve declined Luke Hochevar’s $7MM 2017 mutual option. That means they’ll owe him a $500K buyout. He is now a free agent.

The move was expected. Hochevar underwent surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome in August, and it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to return to game action. There have, however, been indications that the Royals could attempt to sign Hochevar to a cheaper deal for 2017.

Hochevar generally pitched well in 2016 when healthy, posting a 3.86 ERA, 9.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 37 1/3 innings. The 33-year-old former No. 1 overall pick struggled for years as a starter and missed the 2014 season after having Tommy John surgery, but he’s now had three relatively successful seasons as a hard-throwing reliever, including with the Royals’ 2015 World Series team.

Red Sox To Look For Setup Man, Designated Hitter

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Last offseason, the Red Sox made big moves to acquire Craig Kimbrel and David Price. This year, Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the team doesn’t necessarily expect those sorts of blockbusters, Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports. Dombrowski does, however, have some positions in mind that the team will target.

“Last year, I thought all along that we really needed two big moves, which was a No. 1 starting pitcher and a closer,” says Dombrowski. “Those are two, I guess, what you’d consider headline moves. This winter I wouldn’t say that you put the same thought process on it. But again, you start talking to clubs, you never could tell what happens. But I would say philosophically, that’s probably the case.”

The Red Sox will have a big hole to fill at DH, given David Ortiz’s retirement, and they’ve been widely connected to Edwin Encarnacion. But Dombrowski says he remains open to the possibility that the Sox could fill the position with talent already in the organization.

“[W]e’ll just kind of wait to see what happens in David’s situation as far as filling that is concerned. Can deal with that internally, externally (too) I think,” Dombrowski says.

Signing someone like Encarnacion would be costly, of course. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy, meanwhile, says he doesn’t know what the team’s 2017 payroll will be, Drellich reports. Kennedy adds that the Red Sox will have to be “prepared” to adjust after Ortiz’s departure.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen with payroll, truthfully,” says Kennedy. “I think the consistent theme of the John Henry, Tom Werner ownership group, going all the way back to 2002, has been to not sort of set a hard and fast payroll each and every year.”

Dombrowski does say the Red Sox will look for a setup man. WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes that the team is planning to attend former Royals closer Greg Holland’s upcoming showcase. He would potentially fit the bill, although it appears there will be considerable interest from other teams as well. Bradford also suggests re-signing 41-year-old free agent Koji Uehara could be a possibility.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals remain in a strong position despite missing the playoffs in 2016, and they’ll enter the offseason hoping to add an outfielder and to sort through their starting pitching depth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Club Options

  • Matt Holliday, OF: $17MM or a $1M buyout (the Cardinals are expected to decline the option)
  • Jaime Garcia, SP: $12MM or a $500K buyout (the Cardinals have exercised the option)
  • Jordan Walden, RP: $5.25MM or $250K buyout (the Cardinals have declined the option)
  • Seung-hwan Oh, RP: $2.75MM (option already vested because Oh finished more than 30 games in 2016)

Free Agents

Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information

In 2016, the Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010, winning only (or “only”) 86 games. The team said goodbye to Matt Holliday after the season, beginning what’s likely to be an organizational transition from a core of Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter to one that’s much younger.

Of course, this seems to be a common refrain for the Cardinals, who have had winning seasons in 16 of the last 17 years, transitioning from their previous core of Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen without a hitch. Among the Cardinals’ younger players, there were positive signs in 2016, as Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes and Randal Grichuk all contributed solid value. The Cardinals will therefore keep trying to do what they always do, replacing good players with more good ones while making perhaps one big acquisition each winter. They’ll face an uphill battle as the divisional rival of a brilliant Cubs team, but they have way too much talent not to strive for the postseason.

With Molina and Brayan Pena (who returned from the DL in September after missing much of the season to knee issues) under contract for next season, the catcher position is mostly set. It wouldn’t hurt the Cardinals to find a solid third backstop in case of another DL stint for Molina or Pena, however, since both have significant injury histories and aren’t getting any younger. (22-year-old Carson Kelly is currently the Cardinals’ next man up, and he could benefit from a bit more seasoning at Triple-A.) A lucrative minor league deal (along the lines of the one the Red Sox gave Sandy Leon last offseason) to lure a solid third option might be a good move.

Likewise, the Cardinals won’t need much infield help. Jedd Gyorko — who swatted 30 home runs after being acquired in what amounted to a salary dump by the Padres — was a revelation for the Cards last season, and with Carpenter, Diaz and Peralta flanking him and other capable situational options at various positions (including Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and Greg Garcia), the Cards have significant depth.

If the Cardinals are going to make a big move to add offense, they’ll probably grab an outfielder. The loss of former top prospect Oscar Taveras in a tragic offseason accident two years back still looms large for the franchise. Piscotty can be counted on for everyday at-bats, and Grichuk has probably shown enough to warrant everyday play as well, even though his on-base percentages will likely continue to underwhelm. Tommy Pham has proven as least modestly useful as well. With both Holliday and Brandon Moss coming off the payroll, though, the Cardinals are probably short a big bat, and the outfield is the only obvious place to put one.

The Cardinals are reportedly most interested in acquiring a center fielder, and might prefer to do so on the trade market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch identifies Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock and Adam Eaton as possibilities (although, as our own Steve Adams notes, the White Sox probably won’t be inclined to trade Eaton). Of the other two, Pollock is the only righty, and from my perspective, a right-handed hitter might be a slightly better fit. The Cards’ lineup is fairly balanced, but they already have plenty of left-handed hitting in Carpenter, Adams, Wong and Garcia, and their team OPS was 35 points better against righties than lefties last season. Pollock is the better fit from a fielding perspective, too — advanced statistics suggest Grichuk is a better defensive center fielder than Blackmon, and it’s unclear whether the alignment of Blackmon in center and Grichuk in a corner would provide enough of a defensive upgrade to justify the Cardinals’ reported focus on center fielders rather than corner outfielders.

Of course, there have yet been no meaningful indications that the Diamondbacks are interested in trading Pollock, and they might prefer to wait to deal him until he recovers value after an injury-marred 2016 campaign. Other names could come into play as well, and perhaps the Cardinals could also turn to a relatively robust outfield free agent market, which features the likes of Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez, both of whom are relatively young and play quality center field defense. 30-year-old Dexter Fowler, too, will be available as an even higher-value target.

The Cardinals could also circle back and re-sign Moss, although Goold notes that Moss seems to be down their list of priorities right now. They didn’t extend him a qualifying offer, which makes sense — he hit 28 home runs last season, but with a low batting average (.225) and on-base percentage (.300). Re-signing Moss would certainly not be the worst idea, although it’s easy to understand the organization’s reasons for wanting to look elsewhere first, given the variety of potential alternatives.

The Cardinals appear set to welcome Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Mike Leake and perhaps Michael Wacha (who the Cards say they still view as a starter despite a 2016 season marred by health concerns) back to their rotation next year, with talented newcomer Alex Reyes also likely set to receive significant playing time. They can also probably count on getting something from Lance Lynn, who missed the entire 2016 season after having Tommy John surgery but was pitching in Triple-A by the end of the year. There are other options as well, like Luke Weaver, Mike Mayers, Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney. (The last three of those pitchers are returning from injury, and Gonzales and probably Cooney are better bets to contribute later in the season rather than earlier.)

Jaime GarciaThat depth left the Cardinals with a decision regarding 30-year-old Jaime Garcia, whose $12MM option they recently exercised. Given Garcia’s relative youth, his experience as a starter, and his outstanding ground-ball rate (56.5% for his career), he’s worth that kind of scratch, so the Cards’ call wasn’t a surprise. They could still try to deal him, though, and given the weak free agent market for starting pitching, Garcia would probably command at least a decent return.

Garcia alone wouldn’t be enough to acquire the sort of outfield talent the Cardinals are likely to seek, however. Perhaps an alternate route would be for the Cardinals to keep Garcia and trade another starting pitcher for a good outfielder. There is no indication the Cards are considering such a possibility, but it’s worth keeping in mind, since keeping a competent starter in Garcia and dangling a young, controllable arm like Wacha could be a way to get trade talks going. There’s precedent for such a trade, too, in the form of the November 2014 deal that sent Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden. Dealing Peralta could be another option, since the Cardinals have infield depth and Peralta only has one year left on his contract.

In the bullpen, Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh will be back after a brilliant first season in the US, and Kevin Siegrist, 2015 Rule 5 pick Matthew Bowman and ground-ball specialist Seth Maness (who had UCL surgery in August but could be ready in time for Spring Training if all goes well) are all likely to return after 2016 seasons that were generally effective. Jonathan Broxton, too, had a passable first season in St. Louis and should be back in 2017.

Trevor Rosenthal, though, walked a way-too-high 6.5 batters per nine, suffering through a shoulder injury and ultimately losing his closer job to Oh. Rosenthal is set to be paid a hefty $6.3MM this season, but the Cardinals would seem to have no choice but to tender him, since he’s only 26, throws in the high 90s and still struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings even in what was otherwise a terrible season. Zach Duke, meanwhile, had Tommy John surgery in mid-October, and the Cardinals declined Walden’s option after two injury-riddled years. It’s likely the Cardinals can get some relief mileage out of some of their less established arms (including Sam Tuivailala and Miguel Socolovich) and starting depth. Someone like Lyons or Gonzales could ultimately replace the left-handed Duke. It wouldn’t be surprising, though, if the Cardinals sought out a veteran bullpen arm (either left-handed or right-handed).

The Cardinals’ offseason, then, could follow a variety of possible paths. The organization could potentially be punished for former scouting director Chris Correa’s hacking of the Astros’ database, and it’s unclear whether that punishment could affect the team’s drafting or something else. For now, though, the Cardinals will proceed as if they’ll have no restrictions. While there’s potential for the Cards to pull off a blockbuster, given the team’s pitching depth and outfield needs, the franchise seems unlikely to veer off its current path, and they’ll enter 2017 hoping to field yet another competitive club.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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