Diamondbacks Sign Zack Greinke
TUESDAY: Arizona has announced the signing.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has a slew of details on the contract. (All links go to Twitter.) Greinke will receive a $18MM signing bonus and salaries of $31MM (2016-18), $31.5MM (2019), and $32MM (2020-21).
The overall valuation of the deal sits at $193,849,298, per Heyman, which accounts for the fact that $62.5MM of it is deferred. Greinke will also receive a $2MM trade bonus if he’s dealt once, though of course there is no-trade protection as well, and will donate one percent of his annual salary to the club’s charity.
SUNDAY: Greinke will receive a limited no-trade provision as part of his deal, Heyman tweets.
FRIDAY: In a shocker, the Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with free agent starter Zack Greinke, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The contract is for six years, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. Greinke is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Greinke will receive an amazing $206.5MM over six years, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. While that will include some deferred money (via Rosenthal), the total comes just short of David Price‘s $217MM deal with the Red Sox, which was the largest ever for a pitcher. (Rosenthal tweets that $60MM or more is deferred, and the present-day value of Greinke’s deal is around $190MM. Heyman tweets that the deferred money that will be paid within five years after the deal expires.) And Greinke’s contract is for only six years, compared to Price’s seven (although Price’s contains an opt-out, and Greinke’s does not, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets). Greinke’s $34.42MM AAV will be baseball’s largest ever, blowing away both Price and Miguel Cabrera, who got $31MM.
Rosenthal had reported earlier Friday evening that the Diamondbacks were pursuing Greinke, and the Diamondbacks had previously been connected to a number of high-profile arms, including Johnny Cueto, Kenta Maeda and others. Still, the fact that they’re set to sign an ultra-high-end star like Greinke comes as a surprise, particularly since the top two bidders seemed to be two of Arizona’s division rivals, the Dodgers and Giants.
Still, Greinke to the Diamondbacks makes a fair amount of sense, and not just because of the team’s new ten-figure TV deal. The $206.5MM total for Greinke is three times larger than the Snakes’ biggest-ever free agent contract (last year’s $68.5MM deal for Yasmany Tomas), but Greinke, in addition to being an elite talent, should fit well with what they already have built.
As FanGraphs’ August Fagerstrom pointed out earlier this week, Arizona already qualified as a sleeper team for next season. The Diamondbacks already had a solid offense headed by two top talents in Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and an excellent defense headed by Pollock, Nick Ahmed and Ender Inciarte. The chief reason they only won 79 games last season was their pitching staff, which rated 27th in MLB in fWAR. Their rotation already looked likely to improve somewhat next season with a full season of Patrick Corbin, but adding Greinke provides a much bigger shot in the arm. With Greinke in the fold, the Diamondbacks obviously have a much better chance of contending — and not only because of the direct impact Greinke will have on their roster, but also because they’ll be keeping Greinke from pitching for one of their rivals.
Greinke would, clearly, be an impact addition for any team. While he isn’t likely to repeat his 1.66 ERA next season, even with an outstanding defense behind him, he’s an elite pitcher by any standard — he pitched 222 2/3 innings in 2015 and struck out 200 batters, reaching that threshold for the fifth time in his career. His 1.6 BB/9 was good for fifth in the Majors, and he also did a terrific job limiting home runs. Via FanGraphs linear weights, his changeup ranked as the best in baseball, and both his fastball and slider were among the ten best. He also hit a relatively robust .224/.232/.343 and won his second consecutive Gold Glove award.
The Diamondbacks’ surprising deal with Greinke leaves its neighbors to the west on the outside looking in. The Dodgers were uncomfortable giving Greinke a sixth year, the Los Angeles Times’ Bill Shaikin tweets. They offered him about $31MM per year over five years, Heyman reports (again via Twitter), but they were uncomfortable guaranteeing a sixth year to a pitcher who’s already 32. With Greinke off the board, the Dodgers are expected to bid for Cueto, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, the Giants could turn to other starting pitchers, perhaps Jeff Samardzija.
Greinke’s decision to opt out of his contract with the Dodgers unsurprisingly turned out to be a very lucrative one. He effectively declined three years and $71MM more from Los Angeles, and now will receive three times as much over only twice as many seasons. Also, as the Bay Area News Group’s Andrew Baggarly tweets, Greinke will be taxed at a significantly lower rate in Arizona than in California.
Once the deal is complete, the Diamondbacks will forfeit the 13th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Greinke rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer. The Dodgers will receive a pick at the end of the first round.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Athletics To Sign Ryan Madson
MONDAY: Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports the breakdown: there’s a $500K signing bonus and Madson will earn $6.5MM in 2016 and $7.5MM a year over 2017-18. The deal also includes incentives up to $1.25MM a year based on games finished.
There’s also a one-time, $250K trade bonus, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
SUNDAY: Reliever Ryan Madson and the Athletics have agreed to terms on a three-year, $22MM deal, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links). Madson can also receive up to $1.25MM per year in incentives based on the number of games he finishes. He is an All Bases Covered client.
That the 35-year-old Madson would receive a three-year deal over $20MM would have been unthinkable just a year ago. Madson did not pitch in 2012 through 2014 due to injury, then signed what at the time seemed to be an insignificant minor-league deal with the Royals last January. In 2015, though, he reemerged as something close to the dominant reliever he once was with the Phillies, posting a 2.13 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings in Kansas City. He also threw in the mid-90s, and his ground-ball rate (55.0%) was the highest of his career.
Madson figures to serve in a setup role in Oakland, although he has closing experience and could potentially move into the closer’s role in case Sean Doolittle, who missed much of 2015 with shoulder trouble, gets hurt again. Nonetheless, $22MM is a surprising risk for the Athletics to take with an aging reliever. MLBTR projected Madson would get three years, but at a more modest $15MM; Madson’s $22MM total eclipses that of, for example, former Athletic Luke Gregerson, who got $18.5MM from the Astros last offseason despite being five years younger than Madson is now and having a more robust recent track record. There’s also the question of whether the Athletics will contend in 2016 after winning 68 games last season, and if not, whether spending so heavily on a 35-year-old is the right strategy.
Perhaps, though, Madson’s deal is part of a broader strategy. Madson joins Rich Hill as the second 35-year-old pitcher this winter to have a comeback 2015 season and then agree to a big-league deal with the A’s. Hill had four dominant late-season starts with the Red Sox after pitching sparingly in the Majors in the previous three seasons, and Oakland signed him for $6MM. The Athletics might feel that skepticism about players in situations like Hill’s or Madson’s presents them with opportunities that they might not otherwise have to sign talented pitchers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Royals Re-Sign Chris Young
5:06pm: Kansas City has announced the signing. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com tweets the annual breakdown of the contract, which promises Young $4.25MM in 2016, $5.75MM for the following year, and a $1.5MM buyout on a $8MM mutual option for 2018.
9:10am: Young will earn about $11.75MM over the life of the two-year deal, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star hears that it’s slightly less: an $11.5MM total over two years (Twitter link).
DEC. 7, 8:15am: Young does indeed have a deal with the Royals, pending a physical, reports MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter), who adds that Young is in Kansas City at the moment, presumably to take said physical examination.
DEC. 6: The Royals are close to re-signing pitcher Chris Young to a two-year deal, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The deal is likely to be worth around $10MM to $11MM, and it’s likely to be completed by the close of the Winter Meetings. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently reported that it was just “a matter of timing” before Young and the Royals came to terms.
It appears that, as expected, Young’s new deal will be considerably more lucrative than the $675K contract to which he agreed before last season. In the last two seasons, Young has very effective, posting ERAs well below four and pitching a total of almost 300 innings split between the bullpen and the rotation in Seattle and Kansas City.
Young is now 36, and there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of his prospects for future success — he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with mediocre peripherals and very little in the way of velocity. Those reasons existed before each of the last two seasons too, however, and Young succeeded despite them. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron broke down Young’s success in a fascinating column earlier this year, noting that Young has demonstrated an ability to repeat a BABIP that is drastically better than the league average due to his extreme fly-ball tendencies and uncanny ability to induce weak contact.
If the Royals believe in his ability to continue to be useful and versatile, a salary of about $5MM per season does not seem like an unreasonable price to pay. And considering the fact that Kansas City plays in one of the American League’s most expansive ball parks and typically prioritizes outfield defense — Lorenzo Cain is among the game’s best, though they’ll have a significant defensive hole to fill if Alex Gordon leaves — Young’s skill set seems perfectly tailored to succeed with the Royals. It remains to be seen just how many innings Young can handle in a season — the 165 he threw for Seattle in 2014 were his most since 2007, and he’s never even reached 180 — but for the reported price, Young doesn’t need to log 200+ innings in order to more than justify his salary.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Royals, Athletics Talking With Scott Kazmir
6:32pm: The Athletics are also in the hunt for the free agent southpaw, he tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. There are numerous other teams still in the mix, though, she adds.
Oakland knows Kazmir as well as any team, of course. He spent all of 2014 and most of 2015 with the club after signing there as a free agent, and delivered plenty of value on his contract.
3:35pm: The Royals are in pursuit of free agent lefty Scott Kazmir, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets. The Dodgers are also interested, as Olney notes (and as FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal also noted earlier this weekend). The Royals appear close to re-signing another starter, Chris Young, but it doesn’t appear that will keep them from searching for more pitching help.
Kazmir would, of course, immediately upgrade a Royals rotation that finished 12th in the AL with a 4.34 ERA last year. Kazmir’s 3.10 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 2015 would have placed him among the Royals’ best starters. Kazmir struggled down the stretch after being traded from Oakland to Houston, and he didn’t fare well the third time through the order (when batters hit .280/.335/.452 against him), so he also seems likely to benefit from the Royals’ strong bullpen. The 31-year-old Kazmir’s previous two-year deal with the A’s paid him $22MM, although he seems well positioned for a significantly larger deal this time around.
Latest On Joakim Soria
Here’s the latest on veteran closer Joakim Soria, one of the best relievers remaining on the free agent market, particularly with the Orioles closing in on re-signing Darren O’Day and with Ryan Madson having agreed to terms with the A’s.
- It’s likely Soria will get a three-year deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). He’ll also be looking for some other protection in his deal: some kind of no-trade clause and an incentives package. (Rosenthal says the incentives would be to “cover him if he is used as a starter,” but that seems likely to be a typo; presumably, the veteran reliever would be looking to add some salary upside if he is used as a closer.)
Earlier Updates
- Soria remains a potential fit for the Twins, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. Soria’s agent, Oscar Suarez, says his client doesn’t mind pitching in a setup role rather than closing, but adds that he doesn’t want to sign with a team likely to trade him in July. “If he’s got to be an eighth-inning guy, he’s got no problem with that, as long as he’s paid accordingly,” Suarez says. “[H]e’d like to be in a situation where he doesn’t have to worry about being flipped on July 31 if the team falls out of it. He’s looking for a team that’s committed to him.”
- Of course, the Tigers actually did flip Soria last July, but they are open to re-signing him even after adding Francisco Rodriguez, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. With K-Rod in the fold, Soria would serve in a setup role. The Tigers spoke to Soria before acquiring Rodriguez.
- Other teams recently connected to Soria include the Blue Jays and Royals, as well as the Rangers and Giants. At last check, Soria was reportedly looking for a three-year deal in the $27MM range.
Dodgers “Making Progress” On Aroldis Chapman Deal
4:57pm: The Dodgers are “making progress” on a deal involving Chapman, Rosenthal tweets.
4:13pm: The Dodgers are discussing a trade with the Reds that would bring Chapman to Los Angeles for prospects, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Obviously, the prospect package likely required to land Chapman would be considerable. The Dodgers do, of course, already have a terrific closer in Kenley Jansen, but having too many great ninth-inning options is an excellent problem to have. A dominant bullpen would also likely help ameliorate worries the Dodgers might have about their rotation, which just lost Zack Greinke to the Diamondbacks. As Rosenthal tweets, there’s also the possibility that the Dodgers could trade either Chapman or Jansen if they do trade for Chapman.
4:04pm: Reds GM Dick Williams expects that his club will deal star closer Aroldis Chapman, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. There is, obviously, plenty of interest in Chapman, with potential trade partners including the Nationals, Astros and Diamondbacks as well as the Dodgers.
That the Reds plan to deal Chapman perhaps comes as little surprise — Chapman is eligible for free agency after the season, the Reds don’t appear likely to contend in 2016, and he ought to fetch a very significant return. The 27-year-old flamethrower was brilliant as usual in 2015, posting a 1.63 ERA, 4.5 BB/9 and a ridiculous 15.7 K/9 in 66 1/3 innings while winning his fourth straight All-Star berth in 2015. He also posted an average fastball velocity of 99.5 MPH that came in 1.4 MPH faster than the closest pitcher (the Royals’ Kelvin Herrera).
Marlins Notes: Lackey, Gordon, Fernandez
Here are a few quick notes on the Marlins, all via CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman (all Twitter links).
- The Marlins had interest in John Lackey to upgrade their rotation, Heyman writes. Lackey got two years and $32MM from the Cubs, and the Marlins have interest in a pitcher at around that price. They do have interest in Ian Kennedy, although he might turn out to be too expensive.
- The Marlins have also had preliminary extension talks with second baseman Dee Gordon, tweets Heyman. They will meet with his agent, Rick Thurman of Beverly Hills Sports Council, at the Winter Meetings. Gordon, a Super Two player, will make a projected $5.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility in 2016 after leading the NL in hits, batting average and stolen bases (as well as times caught stealing) last season. If he doesn’t agree to a deal, he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2018 campaign.
- The Marlins do not intend to trade Jose Fernandez and have received only a few calls on him, Heyman says. Marlins exec Michael Hill recently told MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro that the team had not placed their ace on the block.
Dodgers To Sign Chase Utley
The Dodgers have agreed to a one-year deal with second baseman Chase Utley, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweets. The deal is believed to be for around $7MM, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted that a deal was close. Utley is a client of the Wasserman Media Group.
The 36-year-old Utley joined the Dodgers after an August trade with the Phillies and batted a modest .202/.291/.363, a line consistent with the notion that his hitting has declined steeply in the past two seasons. However, he had a very low .230 batting average on balls in play for the 2015 season, suggesting there’s room for him to rebound next year, and he was worth 4.4 fWAR in 2014 even as his hitting numbers declined. The Dodgers might be hoping he improves somewhat offensively, combining to produce sufficient value with his hitting and his solid glove.
The Dodgers also have a pair of interesting young second base options in Enrique Hernandez and Jose Peraza. Hernandez hit .307/.346/.490 in a super-utility role for the Dodgers in 2015, and though his minor-league track record suggests it’s unlikely he can keep up that kind of production, he does have pop in his bat. Peraza, acquired in the Dodgers’ three-team trade with the Braves and Marlins in July, lacks power but has youth, outstanding speed and a top prospect pedigree on his side.
By re-signing Utley, then, the Dodgers are giving themselves another option at second, quite reasonably hoping that one of their second basemen, or a combination of them, will produce. Such a signing would, however, suggest that they are unlikely to re-sign 2015 second baseman Howie Kendrick, who figures to be significantly more expensive and to require multiple years. By signing Utley, the Dodgers can clear the position for Peraza in 2017 if he shows he’s ready.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL West Notes: Dodgers, Samardzija, Rockies
The Dodgers remade their roster at last year’s Winter Meetings, and they already have plenty of irons in the fire for this year’s, the Los Angeles News Group’s J.P. Hoornstra writes. They need at least one starting pitcher, and maybe two, with Zack Greinke headed to the Diamondbacks. They could also address the second base position, and Hoornstra writes that he doesn’t see them re-signing Howie Kendrick, since they want to get younger next season. Here’s more from the NL West.
- The Dodgers are looking for starting pitching for the second offseason in a row, but they haven’t yet landed any of the key starting pitchers to sign either this winter or last, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes. Though the Dodgers did make a fairly hefty bid for Greinke, they’ve operated cautiously when it comes to big free agent contracts. “Obviously with the free agent market – if you look back over time it hasn’t necessarily resulted in helping teams win in October. There’s just not that high a correlation between it,” Dodgers exec Andrew Friedman said last week. “On one hand, by making big splashy deals you win the winter headlines. But more often than not, you aren’t having a parade at the end of October.”
- The Giants might have overpaid for Jeff Samardzija, whose $90MM deal appears to compensate him more for potential than performance, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Samardzija’s size and stuff suggest he can be an ace, and if that’s what happens, $90MM will look like a pittance. He does not, however, have a track record commensurate with the amount the Giants have committed to pay him. Matt Cain‘s recent struggles with the team demonstrate how risky long-term deals for pitchers can be, and Cain appeared to be far less risky than Samardzija is.
- Nonetheless, Samardzija fills a big hole in the Giants’ rotation, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. “This guy is a horse,” says GM Bobby Evans. “Even in tough times, and what they were doing in Chicago last year, he still put 200-plus innings on the board. His numbers may have been affected by (being in the) third place he’s pitched in in two years. There may be some mechanical adjustments he needs to make.”
- In an interview with FanGraphs’ David Laurila, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich shares a number of thoughts about how to win at altitude. The takeaway is that he generally believes the traits needed to succeed at Coors Field aren’t that different from the traits needed to succeed anywhere else. He does say, however, that the equation might be slightly different for hitters than for pitchers. “Our history shows that there isn’t one specific algorithm, or equation, for a pitcher that equals success here,” he says. “For position players, yeah, I would say that there are. But that’s not something I wish to talk about here. Some of that is proprietary as to how we look at players. With both, probably the best answer is, ‘To a certain degree.’”
Latest On Mike Leake
Here are the latest tidbits on free agent starter Mike Leake (who has also recently been connected to the Giants, as well as to the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, who are discussed below).
- The Cardinals, who have lost Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery and John Lackey to the Cubs, are seriously considering Leake, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes. In addition to David Price and Jeff Samardzija, the Cardinals also “tried hard” to sign Lackey. It appears, then, that they’ll have ample room in their budget to sign Leake if they make him a priority.
- The Diamondbacks, however, could have the edge on signing Leake if they can make a strong offer, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. Leake lives near Phoenix and would like to stay there if possible. There is reportedly mutual interest between Leake and the Diamondbacks.