Previewing Club Option Decisions: Designated Hitters, Outfielders
This is the second in a series of pieces previewing offseason club option decisions. This edition will focus on designated hitters and outfielders…
Designated hitters
- Nelson Cruz, Twins ($12MM option or $300K buyout): So let’s get this straight: Cruz has slashed .294/.385/.642 with 30 home runs in 362 plate appearances on a $14MM salary this year, and he’s actually in line for a pay decrease? This is looking like a brilliant signing by the Twins, who will no doubt exercise the 39-year-old Cruz’s option.
- Edwin Encarnacion, Yankees ($20MM option or $5MM buyout): Like Cruz, the 36-year-old Encarnacion has been one of the most prolific sluggers in recent memory. That doesn’t mean the Yankees will keep Encarnacion around, though. While he was enjoying another high-end year (.240/.346/.518 with 30 HRs in 451 PA) before fracturing his right wrist last weekend, the Yankees might decide they could spend Encarnacion’s money better elsewhere. After all, they won’t be hard up for other DH options in 2020.
Outfielders
- Alex Gordon, Royals ($23MM mutual option or $4MM buyout): The Royals certainly won’t bring Gordon back next year for $23MM, but he’s a franchise icon who hasn’t made it a secret he wants to spend his whole career in Kansas City. And Royals general manager Dayton Moore has great respect for Gordon, so expect the soon-to-be 36-year-old left fielder to return to KC next season at a more team-friendly price.
- Billy Hamilton, Royals ($7.5MM option or $1MM buyout): The same probably won’t apply to Hamilton, who has posted the worst offensive season of his light-hitting career. Hamilton has batted a woeful .209/.276/.262 with no homers in 293 PA, and even his always strong defense and base running haven’t been able to make up for his punchless production at the plate. He’ll return to free agency over the winter.
- Juan Lagares, Mets ($9.5MM option or $500K buyout): The 30-year-old Lagares joins Hamilton as another weak-hitting center fielder on his way to the open market. Lagares has long been known for his defense, but he has managed an unappealing minus-5 DRS/minus-4.0 UZR in center this season. Meanwhile, he has put up a horrid .186/.263/.267 line with a pair of HRs over 180 trips to the plate.
- Starling Marte, Pirates ($11.5MM option or $2MM buyout): This should be a no-brainer for the Pirates to exercise, as the soon-to-be 31-year-old Marte has turned in another respectable season in 2019. Despite a career-low 3.9 percent walk rate, Marte has slashed .285/.326/.505 and notched 20 homers and 17 steals across 462 PA. The defense hasn’t exactly been stellar (minus-5 DRS, minus-2.1 UZR), yet Marte has still been worth 2.5 fWAR.
- Kole Calhoun, Angels ($14MM option or $1MM buyout): This will be a tough choice for the Angels, who have seen Calhoun rebound from a subpar 2018 to bat .233/.318/.481 with 25 HRs (one fewer than his personal-high total) in 448 PA. Calhoun’s also a capable defender, which has helped him record the fifth season of at least 2.0 fWAR in his career. He’s set to turn 32 in October, though, and the Angels have an elite outfield prospect in Jo Adell knocking at the door. Therefore, they may be tempted to jettison Calhoun – quality track record be damned – and save $13MM.
- Adam Eaton, Nationals ($9.5MM option or $1.5MM buyout): The Eaton acquisition hasn’t worked out as hoped for the Nationals, who traded pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning to the White Sox for him prior to the 2017 season. Eaton hasn’t performed poorly by any means, but injuries limited him to just 118 games in his first two seasons in D.C. He has appeared in 108 this year, however, and batted a decent .276/.357/.396 with six HRs, 10 steals and 1.4 fWAR in 480 PA. As of now, the guess is they’ll keep the soon-to-be 31-year-old in the fold.
- Nick Markakis, Braves ($6MM option or $2MM buyout): Markakis has been one of baseball’s most durable players since his career began in 2006, but he took a pitch off the left wrist in late July and won’t return until sometime in September. His streak of 150-plus appearances will end at six seasons as a result. Still, the 35-year-old was in the midst of another decent season at the time he went down, and with Austin Riley perhaps set to move from the corner outfield to third base in 2020 (starting 3B Josh Donaldson‘s a pending free agent), the Braves just might bring the affordable Markakis back for a sixth season.
Previewing Club Option Decisions: Catchers, Infielders
This is the first in a series of pieces previewing offseason club option decisions. We’ll start with catchers and infielders…
Catchers
- Welington Castillo, White Sox ($8MM option or $500K buyout): This looks like a buyout waiting to happen for the White Sox, who have gotten awful offensive production from the typically competent Castillo. The 32-year-old has hit .184/.262/.340 with six home runs in 164 plate appearances. Castillo has also graded as one of the game’s worst defensive backstops.
- Tyler Flowers, Braves ($6MM option or $2MM buyout): The 33-year-old Flowers’ offensive output has waned this season in comparison to the previous three campaigns, though his line – .229/.307/.432 with nine HRs in 215 PA – is closer to average than terrible relative to his position. And Flowers remains a strong defender, so it’ll be a surprise if the Braves buy him out – especially with Brian McCann‘s future in question.
- Yan Gomes, Nationals ($9MM option or $1MM buyout): This has been a miserable year for Gomes, a former Indian whom the Nationals acquired last offseason. Gomes, 32, owns a .207/.313/.327 line with six homers across 240 PA, and has been a mixed bag behind the plate. With fellow catcher Kurt Suzuki under control through next season, the Nationals may not feel compelled to bring Gomes back.
- Yasmani Grandal, Brewers ($16MM mutual option or $2.25MM buyout): At this rate, the Brewers will exercise their half of Grandal’s mutual option, but he’s sure to decline his end of it. Grandal’s amid another strong all-around year and, unlike last offseason, will enter free agency without a qualifying offer weighing him down.
- Chris Iannetta, Rockies ($4.25MM option or $750K buyout): It’s not a prohibitive price for Iannetta, but he hasn’t done himself any favors by hitting .212/.306/.409 with six dingers in 157 trips to the plate as Tony Wolters‘ backup. Expect the Rockies to move on without Iannetta.
First basemen
- Matt Adams, Nationals ($4MM option or $1MM buyout): This will amount to a $3MM decision for the Nationals, who are already paying Adams that much this year. The 30-year-old has been a useful piece for the club, with a powerful .245/.296/.532 line and 17 HRs in 233 PA. The guess is the Nats will exercise his option, especially with other first base choices Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick and Gerardo Parra possibly on the way out after this season.
- Anthony Rizzo, Cubs ($16.5MM option or $2MM buyout): The Cubs will obviously pick up Rizzo’s option.
- Eric Thames, Brewers ($7.5MM option or $1MM buyout): Thames has somewhat bounced back from an underwhelming 2018, his price for next year is reasonable, and the Brewers just sent fellow first baseman Jesus Aguilar packing. They’ll likely keep Thames around for 2020.
- Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals ($18MM option or $2MM buyout): Zimmerman’s days as a star third baseman are long gone, and the now-first baseman’s time as a National is likely to end after the season.
Second basemen
- Starlin Castro, Marlins ($16MM option or $1MM buyout): It’ll be easy for the low-budget Marlins to move on from Castro, who’s mired in the worst season of his career at the age of 29.
- Wilmer Flores, Diamondbacks ($6MM option or $500K buyout): The 28-year-old Flores was a quality bench piece for the Mets prior to this season, but his first (and possibly only) D-backs campaign has been an injury-limited one. The production hasn’t been great, either, as Flores has hit just .277/.327/.387 with a pair of HRs in 168 attempts. As of now, he looks like a strong possibility for a buyout.
- Jedd Gyorko, Dodgers ($13MM option or $1MM buyout): Speaking of injuries, Gyorko has taken just 62 PA this season, and he has slashed a meager .196/.274/.304 in that sample size. The Dodgers acquired the soon-to-be 31-year-old from the Cardinals at last week’s trade deadline, but despite LA’s deep pockets, he figures to hit free agency after the season.
- Jason Kipnis, Indians ($16.5MM option or $2.5MM buyout): In terms of aggregate production, this is the third straight unspectacular season for the 32-year-old Kipnis, who has batted .255/.317/.405 with 11 homers through 383 PA. Kipnis has been a lot better since an ice-cold start to the season, but so good that the budget-conscious Indians will pick up his pricey option? Highly doubtful. While Kipnis has been an Indian since they chose him in the second round of the 2009 draft, his long run with the organization may be on the verge of ending.
- Mike Moustakas, Brewers ($11MM mutual option or $3MM buyout): Like Grandal, the Brewers figure to exercise Moustakas’ option. But Moustakas is likely to join Grandal in taking another stab at free agency. Set to turn 31 next month, Moustakas has performed well this year at second (where he hadn’t played prior to 2019) and third, and is on track for his second 30-HR campaign.
Shortstops
- Freddy Galvis, Blue Jays ($5.5MM option or $1MM buyout): It’s not a crazy price for the durable, switch-hitting Galvis, who has slashed a competent .272/.306/.455 and smacked 18 homers over 449 PA in his age-29 campaign. But it may not be palatable for the Blue Jays, who have seen touted middle infield prospects Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio emerge as major leaguers this year.
Third basemen
- We already covered Flores, Gyorko and Moustakas, the only third base-capable players with options.
The Mets’ Unsung Offensive Star
It was an action-packed offseason for rookie Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who stole headlines with his transactions and his bold proclamations naming his club the favorite in the National League East. Van Wagenen’s roster hasn’t performed to expectations since then, but after a tumultuous few months, the team has climbed above .500 and put itself in the thick of the NL wild-card race. One of Van Wagenen’s less heralded offseason pickups has been among the Mets at the forefront of their midsummer hot streak.
There was little hype accompanying the Mets’ acquisition of infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis from the Astros on Jan. 6. The Mets surrendered three minor leaguers for Davis, who – despite being a 2014 third-round pick and a solid prospect in Houston – didn’t have an obvious path to playing time with the Astros. However, the 26-year-old quickly worked his way into New York’s plans, thanks in part to season-opening injuries to infielders Todd Frazier and the still-hurt Jed Lowrie, and hasn’t graced the minors at all in 2019 after spending almost all of his Astros tenure there.
While Davis did hold his own at the lower levels with the Astros, he collected just 181 major league plate appearances from 2017-18 – in which he batted an unimpressive .194/.260/.321. On the other hand, the Mets’ version has amassed 293 PA and slashed a terrific .300/.369/.498 (131 wRC+) with 12 home runs and respectable strikeout and walk percentages (20.1 K, 9.2 BB). Much of the damage has come in the summer months for Davis, who overcame an unproductive May to post an .881 OPS in June and a 1.017 mark in July. His recent output has helped New York to a second-half awakening – after going into the All-Star break at 40-50, the team has shockingly risen to 57-56.
Although his production has benefited from a .347 batting average on balls in play – which is sure to drop considering the slow-moving Davis’ groundball-heavy profile – that’s not to say he has lucked into his success. To the contrary, according to Statcast, which places Davis in the league’s 91st percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average, hard-hit percentage and expected batting average. As impressive as Davis’ .369 wOBA is, his .389 xwOBA is even better and ties for 17th among all qualified hitters, sandwiching him between Juan Soto and teammate/NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. It helps, of course, that Davis has chased far fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter.
Regardless of whether the Mets do the unthinkable and rally to a playoff berth this year, it looks as if they have a legitimate long-term piece in Davis. As someone who has handled both right- and left-handed pitchers, the righty-swinging Davis has the makings of an everyday player. And while he has accrued more appearances in left field (38) than at third (31), it’s possible he’ll take over for Frazier – a pending free agent – at the hot corner next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL Injury Notes: Dyson, Rangers, Luzardo, Zimmermann
Newly acquired Twins reliever Sam Dyson went to the injured list Sunday with right biceps tendinitis. It turns out the issue has been bothering him since mid-July, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com tweets. Dyson let Twins general manager Thad Levine know about the discomfort “a few days ago,” per Park, who reports the club decided to shut him down thereafter. It’s an unfortunate turn of events for Dyson, who had been enjoying a great year before Minnesota acquired him from San Francisco at the trade deadline, and for a Twins team that made him its headlining July pickup. Dyson pitched twice for the Twins before going on the IL and put up calamitous numbers in both outings, yielding six earned runs on six hits and retiring just two hitters.
- The Rangers have shut left-handed prospect Taylor Hearn down for the season because of renewed irritation in his pitching elbow, though doctors don’t believe it’s related to his ulnar collateral ligament, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. Hearn originally suffered the injury during a nightmare of a major league debut against the Mariners on April 25. The 24-year-old Hearn started the game, but he ultimately recorded only one out and gave up five runs (four earned) on four walks and three hits. MLB.com ranked Hearn as the Rangers’ 11th-best prospect the day of his first promotion. He’s now 26th on the list.
- Better news from Grant, who reports injured Rangers righties Edinson Volquez and Shawn Kelley are progressing toward returns. Volquez, who’s set to retire after the season, will start a rehab assignment Wednesday as he works back from an elbow strain that has shelved him for almost the whole year. Biceps soreness has kept Kelley out since July 12, though the Rangers could activate him Tuesday. The 35-year-old has served as the Rangers’ closer at times this season, saving 11 of 15 chances, and has posted an effective 3.00 ERA/4.10 FIP with 8.73 K/9, 1.36 BB/9 and a 30.1 percent groundball rate in 33 innings.
- Athletics lefty Jesus Luzardo got through a two-inning rehab appearance unscathed Monday, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com. Luzardo will now move from the rookie level to Single-A ball, where he’ll make a three-inning start Saturday. The prized 21-year-old hasn’t been able to make his much-anticipated major league debut this season on account of shoulder and lat injuries. Luzardo could, however, serve as a late-season reinforcement for the wild card hopefuls.
- The Tigers placed righty Jordan Zimmermann on the IL on Monday with a right cervical spasm, the team announced. It’s the latest setback in an ugly Detroit tenure for Zimmermann, whose five-year, $110MM contract has been a bad investment for the club from the get-go. This season, Year 4 of the deal, Zimmermann has logged a 7.13 ERA (with a better, albeit unspectacular, 4.80 FIP) in 72 innings.
Seunghwan Oh Signs With KBO’s Samsung Lions
Reliever Seunghwan Oh is returning to his homeland to sign with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports (Twitter links). Oh has inked a one-year, $490K deal to join the Lions, with whom he began his professional career in 2005.
Oh isn’t going to pitch again this year, as he’s set to undergo season-ending elbow surgery. The Rockies released Oh last month after finding out he’d need the procedure, and that parting of ways may go down as the 37-year-old’s final major league transaction. If it does, the right-hander will conclude his big league tenure with a 3.31 ERA, 10.05 K/9 against 2.23 BB/9, 45 holds and 42 saves in 225 2/3 innings divided among the Cardinals, Blue Jays and Rockies.
Oh signed with the Cardinals prior to the 2016 season after a resoundingly successful run in Asia. He pitched with Samsung from 2005-13, during which he saved a KBO-record 277 games, logged a sparkling 1.69 ERA in 510 1/3 innings and earned the nickname the “Final Boss.” Oh then had a highly productive two-year tenure with the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan before he headed to the majors.
Now that he’s back with the Lions, Oh will have to overcome a couple obstacles before taking the mound again. Not only will he have to recover from his surgery, but Oh will be required to serve a 72-game suspension for a gambling conviction in Korea, according to Yoo. He’ll sit 42 games this season and the other 30 next year.
NL Injury Notes: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Brewers
Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill has made just one appearance in relief since he revived his career in 2015, but it’s possible he’ll finish the season in bullpen when he comes off the injured list, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register relays. Hill has been out since June 20 with a flexor tendon strain, and while his recovery’s going well, he may not have enough time to build up his arm strength for a return to the Dodgers’ rotation. “Ideally, starting is the priority,” said Hill, but he’s just eager to “get back to pitching” in some capacity. Meanwhile, utilityman Chris Taylor – who fractured his left forearm July 14 – remains hopeful he’ll come back at the low end of the four- to six-week period the Dodgers said he would miss. Taylor will first have to embark on a rehab assignment, though, and he hasn’t progressed to that point yet.
More from the NL…
- Cubs reliever Brandon Kintzler is dealing with pectoral discomfort, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times was among those to report. The Cubs will have more information on Kintzler on Tuesday, but a stint on the injured list would be another unwelcome development for a bullpen that just lost closer Craig Kimbrel to the IL. Kintzler has rebounded from a rocky 2018 to serve as one of the Cubs’ go-to bullpen arms this season. The 35-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 2.33 ERA/3.45 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 1.94 BB/9 and a 53.3 percent groundball rate in 46 1/3 innings.
- The Phillies are “optimistic” injured lefty reliever Adam Morgan will pitch again this year, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. A second opinion confirmed Morgan won’t need surgery after a flexor strain forced him to the IL on Aug. 2. He won’t return to throwing for two weeks, however, and that’s assuming he gets through that time frame without pain. Morgan owns a 3.94 ERA/4.33 FIP with 8.8 K/9 and 3.03 BB/9 across 29 2/3 frames. Lefties have hit a horrid .143/.250/.204 against him.
- The Brewers sent one of their top starters, righty Zach Davies, to the IL with a back issue on Monday. Davies discussed the problem with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters, saying he’s “not concerned” it’ll lead to a lengthy absence. Davies has fallen flat over his most three most recent outings, though the wild card-contending Brewers can ill afford to go without another starter for a long period. They were already sans their No. 1, Brandon Woodruff, as well as Jhoulys Chacin before Davies hit the shelf. To this point, Davies has defied underwhelming peripherals to post a solid 3.74 ERA in 122 2/3 innings.
Cubs Have Reportedly Shown Interest In Jonathan Lucroy
The NL Central-leading Cubs are suddenly in an unfavorable position behind the plate, where they’ll go without injured star Willson Contreras for about a month. With the trade deadline having passed and short-lived Cubs reserve Martin Maldonado now a member of the Astros, Chicago’s lacking avenues to bolster its depth at catcher. The Angels are set to release veteran Jonathan Lucroy, though, and the Cubs have shown interest in the two-time All-Star, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
Although Lucroy has gone through a rough couple years since his halcyon days with the Brewers and Rangers, the Cubs aren’t in position to be choosy at his spot. Victor Caratini, who has taken over for Contreras, has performed well this season and may have what it takes to hold the position down for the next few weeks. But the Cubs are without a remotely established backup for Caratini, who only has the untested Taylor Davis behind him on the team’s 40- and 25-man rosters. The 29-year-old Davis has picked up a meager 36 plate appearances at the major league level since he debuted in 2017, and he hasn’t provided much offense in the minors over the past couple seasons.
While Davis may not be the answer behind Caratini, the same could apply to Lucroy. Now 33 years old, Lucroy’s once-excellent hitting and formerly pristine pitch-framing skills have experienced severe drop-offs of late. After Lucroy struggled mightily with the Athletics in 2018, he joined the Angels over the winter on a $3.35MM guarantee in free agency. However, the Angels cut the cord on Lucroy after 268 trips to the plate and a gruesome injury he has since recovered from.
Although Lucroy’s 2019 offensive numbers (.242/.310/.371 – good for an 84 wRC+) are presentable for a catcher, he has declined into one of the game’s worst defenders behind the plate. The catcher-needy Cubs could nonetheless take a low-risk flier on Lucroy in hopes he’ll give them a better backup than Davis.
Marcus Semien Hires Wasserman Agency
Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien has hired the Wasserman Agency for representation, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Agent Joel Wolfe will take the lead.
Semien’s agency switch comes amid a breakout campaign for the 28-year-old, a valuable regular from 2015-18 who has found another gear this season. Acquired from the White Sox in a significant December 2014 trade, Semien entered this season as a lifetime .249/.310/.403 hitter with 9.7 fWAR in 2,637 plate appearances. Semien has since has slashed a career-best .276/.363/.480 with a personal-high 4.3 fWAR in 524 trips to the plate. He slugged a pair of home runs Monday, giving him 19 on the season and easily putting him on pace for the second 20-HR showing of his career.
Semien’s offensive strides have come thanks in part to improved plate discipline, as he has posted the top strikeout and walk percentages of his career (13.9 and 11.8, respectively). Meanwhile, Semien has also taken noticeable steps forward as a defender over the past couple seasons. He combined for minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-9.7 Ultimate Zone Rating from 2016-17, but he’s now enjoying his second straight year in the pluses in those categories (13 DRS, 14.4 UZR since 2018).
The well-rounded Semien has emerged as arguably one of the premier middle infielders in baseball – all the more auspicious for a low-budget A’s team that’s not breaking the bank on him. Semien’s making a a team-friendly $5.9MM salary this season, but unfortunately for Oakland, his bargain days don’t look as if they’ll continue for much longer. Next year’s slated to be Semien’s last as an arbitration-eligible player, and though the Athletics have discussed an extension with him, nothing has come together yet.
[RELATED: MLBTR Agency Database]
Dodgers Plan To Start Julio Urias In 2020
Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias has spent the majority of the season working out of their bullpen, but the club expects to change his role in 2020, manager Dave Roberts told Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com and other reporters Monday.
“We project him to be a starter for us next year,” Roberts said, “and many years to come.”
Urias entered the majors as a hyped 19-year-old prospect in 2016. He started in 15 of 18 appearances that season, but because the Dodgers were monitoring his workload as a rookie, he only totaled 77 innings. Urias nonetheless thrived over that span, pitching to a 3.39 ERA/3.17 FIP with 9.82 K/9 against 3.62 BB/9. The hope then was that Urias would offer similar or better production over a larger number of innings going forward, but he instead underwent a major procedure – anterior capsule surgery on his left shoulder – in June 2017 and combined for just 27 1/3 innings between that year and last season.
Set to turn 23 next week, Urias has returned from his injury (and a May domestic violence arrest, for which charges weren’t filed) to serve as one of the strongest members of a somewhat shaky bullpen. He’s hands down the top lefty option in a relief corps that has dealt with significant injuries to veteran southpaws Scott Alexander (our since June 7 with forearm inflammation) and now-Cardinal Tony Cingrani (out all season because of shoulder issues). Through 37 1/3 innings as a reliever, Urias has notched a 1.93 ERA/3.59 FIP with 8.44 K/9, 3.13 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent groundball rate. Adding to his value, Urias has given the Dodgers more than one inning in most of his appearances.
As the NL-leading Dodgers take another shot at a World Series this year, they’ll consider deploying Urias as one of their main setup men, per Roberts. Beyond that, with Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill scheduled to become free agents over the winter, there will be room for Urias in the Dodgers’ rotation.
Yusei Kikuchi’s Difficult Start
The Mariners made a slew of moves last offseason as part of their “reimagining” plan, but no addition came with more hype than free-agent signing Yusei Kikuchi. The club handed the Japanese star a four-year, $56MM contract – a deal that could turn into a seven-year, $109MM pact – with the expectation it was landing at least a mid-rotation starter. The left-handed Kikuchi could still evolve into that for the Mariners, but their investment hasn’t paid off as planned so far.
In his most recent start last Friday, the Astros lit up the 28-year-old Kikuchi for six earned runs on nine hits, including four home runs, in four innings. The performance dropped Kikuchi’s already uninspiring ERA to 5.49 through his first 118 innings in the majors, with FIP (5.95), xFIP (5.18) and SIERA (5.17) indicating he has deserved his poor run prevention numbers thus far. Home runs have been the main problem for Kikuchi, who has yielded them on 20.1 percent of fly balls and surrendered 2.14 HRs per nine innings. He ranks in the bottom five of the majors in both departments, including dead last in the latter category.
Unlike other recent ballyhooed Japanese imports (Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani, to name a few), Kikuchi hasn’t excelled at missing bats in his initial MLB action. While Darvish, Tanaka and Ohtani each struck out more than a batter per inning upon reaching the bigs, Kikuchi has only set down 6.41 per nine via K, which outdoes just five qualified starters. Therefore, even though Kikuchi has logged a decent BB/9 (2.9), he sits 13th last in K/BB ratio (2.21). Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike, chase and contact rates are also subpar.
To this point, Kikuchi has relied on a four-seam fastball (51.3 percent), slider (26.0) and curveball (17.4), per Statcast. The trouble is that two of those offerings – Kikuchi’s fastball and curve – have been eminently hittable. Batters have teed off on Kikuchi’s four-seamer for a .422 weighted on-base average/.386 expected wOBA, while they’ve lit up his curve for a .397/.431 pairing. Although they’ve mustered a .334 wOBA off Kikuchi’s slider, his .271 xwOBA against is far more encouraging. Looking at the location heatmaps for those pitches (via FanGraphs: four-seamer, slider, curve), it’s not hard to believe two have gotten crushed.
Lefties and righties alike have smacked around Kikuchi, who has yielded a .385 wOBA against the former and a .359 versus the latter. While his overall xwOBA against (.339) paints a much more optimistic picture than the actual mark (.369) hitters have put up, that’s not saying much. After all, according to Statcast, Kikuchi still only ranks in the majors’ 24th percentile in the category. Meanwhile, he’s in the league’s 48th percentile or worse in expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage against, hard-hit percentage against, exit velocity against, average fastball velocity (93.0 mph), fastball spin and strikeout percentage.
There clearly hasn’t been much to like about the rookie version of Kikuchi, which isn’t what the Mariners had in mind when they made him their headlining acquisition last offseason. Manager Scott Servais preached patience in regards to Kikuchi on Monday, saying this has been “a developmental year” and he’ll “learn from it.” That may prove to be the case. So far, however, Seattle can’t be thrilled with what Kikuchi has provided.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.