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Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

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After breaking down how last season’s five lowest-scoring offenses look now, we’ll do the same here with the five rotations that allowed the most earned runs in 2020…

Tigers (6.37 ERA/5.53 FIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.91 BB/9):

  • The Tigers received solid production from Spencer Turnbull and … nobody else last season. Matt Boyd, who was a coveted trade chip before the campaign, imploded; Michael Fulmer had a rough year in his return from Tommy John surgery; and high-end prospects Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize couldn’t keep runs off the board. Turnbull, Boyd and Fulmer are all coming back in 2021, while Skubal, Mize and fellow prospect Matt Manning should factor into the mix. Detroit also has a newcomer in former Marlins starter Jose Urena, whom the Tigers signed to a $3.25MM guarantee late last month. Urena was effective in Miami from 2017-18, but his numbers have gone off the rails since then.

Angels (5.52 ERA/4.78 FIP, 8.68 K/9, 3.52 BB/9):

  • Over two months into the offseason, Angels fans are surely awaiting the acquisition of a high-profile starter. The team hasn’t done anything to improve its rotation thus far, though the group isn’t devoid of potential as it is. Dylan Bundy enjoyed a long-awaited breakout in 2020 – his first year as an Angel – Andrew Heaney stayed healthy and performed pretty well, and Griffin Canning had a promising sophomore season. Those three are locks for starting jobs in 2021, but the rest is up in the air (will Shohei Ohtani finally regain his health as a pitcher? Will Jaime Barria stick in the rotation after a bounce-back season?). With that in mind, odds are the Angels will add a starter before next season, whether that means splurging on Trevor Bauer or shopping at lower tiers of the market.

Braves (5.51 ERA/4.98 FIP, 8.01 K/9, 4.04 BB/9):

  • The Braves’ status as a bottom-feeding rotation is deceiving because of the injury adversity they faced. They barely got anything from Mike Soroka, a 2019 ace who tore his Achilles early in the season, while Cole Hamels pitched once (on Sept. 16) because of nagging arm issues. Soroka will be back next season to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson as one of the best young trios in the game next season. Hamels is now on the open market and unlikely to return, but the Braves replaced him with veteran standout Charlie Morton in free agency. They also grabbed Drew Smyly on the market. While Smyly has gone through an up-and-down career, in part because of injuries, he was terrific as a Giant in 2020. The Braves are banking on Smyly continuing to roll in their uniform.

Nationals (5.38 ERA/5.17 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):

  • As was the case with the division-rival Braves, the Nationals’ rotation couldn’t get through 2020 without key injuries. There wasn’t a more notable victim than Stephen Strasburg, who threw all of five innings after winning 2019 World Series MVP honors and re-signing with the Nats on a seven-year, $245MM contract. The good news is that Strasburg is on track for next season after undergoing surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. If healthy, Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin should return to being an elite trio. There are some issues after those three, however. Joe Ross will come back after opting out last season, but he posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each year from 2017-19. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth were tattooed in similar fashion in 2020. General manager Mike Rizzo has spoken this winter of adding a No. 4/5 type of starter, which seems like a necessity.

Mets (5.37 ERA/4.21 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):

  • The Mets were yet another NL East team whose rotation battled health-related misfortune in 2020. Noah Syndergaard didn’t take the mound after undergoing TJ surgery in March, while the team also got zero contributions from Marcus Stroman because of an opt out. Things are looking better for 2021, though, with Syndergaard set to return at some point (perhaps in June) and Stroman coming back after accepting the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer. Stroman, all-world ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson are in line for starting spots at the opening of next season. The same could potentially be said of Steven Matz, whom the Mets elected against non-tendering, though he was terrible in 2020. Thanks in part to Matz’s struggles last year, it seems likely the Mets will pick up at least one established starter in the coming months. Bauer seems like a possibility when considering new owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, but even someone like Jake Odorizzi or Masahiro Tanaka could go a long way in bolstering New York’s rotation.

Phillies Sign Michael Ynoa To Minor League Contract

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The Phillies have signed right-hander Michael Ynoa to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league spring training, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.

Ynoa – who turned 29 in September – spent last season in the Athletics organization, though he didn’t reach the majors then. It was the second stint with the A’s for Ynoa, a once-touted prospect whom they originally sent to the White Sox in 2014 in a trade that also involved Jeff Samardzija, Marcus Semien and Chris Bassitt, among others.

Ynoa debuted in the bigs with the White Sox in 2016 and pitched to a 4.42 ERA/4.73 FIP with 8.08 K/9 and 5.95 BB/9 across 59 innings through the next season. He hasn’t taken a major league mound since then. Ynoa spent some of 2019 with the Royals at Triple-A, where he has logged a 4.70 ERA and recorded 9.4 K/9 against 5.4 BB/9 over 53 2/3 frames.

Latest On Cardinals, Kolten Wong

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The Cardinals began their offseason by declining second baseman Kolten Wong’s option, making him a free agent, but he remains unsigned two-plus months later. Although Wong called the Cardinals’ choice to let him go a “punch to the gut,” both sides remain interested in a reunion, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Jim Hayes of Fox Sports Midwest.

The Cardinals caught heat for cutting ties with Wong in the first place, but it was not an indefensible decision. The team saved $11.5MM by letting go of Wong, who would have earned $12.5MM in 2021 in lieu of a $1MM buyout had the Cardinals retained him. Wong’s option would have been pricey for St. Louis or any other team.

To Wong’s credit, the 30-year-old has been a valuable part of the team since he debuted in 2013. A two-time Gold Glove winner, Wong has mixed outstanding defense (55 DRS, 32.6 UZR) with respectable offensive production throughout his career. Most recently, he batted .265/.350/.326 with one home run and five stolen bases over 208 plate appearances in 2020.

With Wong at least temporarily out of the picture, Tommy Edman is the in-house favorite to start at second for the Cardinals in 2021. If they’re not content with Edman, and if Wong goes someplace else, they could pivot to free agents such as Tommy La Stella or Cesar Hernandez.

Considering his solid all-around game, Wong could land with several teams this offseason for a lesser price (at least on an annual basis) than the Cardinals turned down. MLBTR predicted at the outset of the winter that Wong would sign for $16MM over two years. Since then, no fewer than a half-dozen teams have shown interest in Wong.

Padres Designate Greg Allen

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The Padres announced that they have designated outfielder Greg Allen for assignment. The move creates 40-man roster space for newly signed infielder Ha-Seong Kim, whose deal is official.

Allen joined the Padres as a secondary piece in the blockbuster August trade that also sent right-hander Mike Clevinger from Cleveland to San Diego, though the outfielder only played in one game with his new team. He ended the year as a .154/.281/.308 hitter with one home run in 32 plate appearances between the two clubs.

Last season’s 61 wRC+ was essentially par for the course for the 27-year-old Allen, who has batted .239/.298/.343 (69 wRC+) over 618 PA since he first played in the majors in 2017. Allen has lined up at all three outfield positions and combined for four Defensive Runs Saved, which is a plus; on the other hand, Allen’s offensive struggles and total lack of minor league options shouldn’t do him any favors as he reaches DFA limbo.

Checking In On 2020’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses

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Three of the 2020 campaign’s five lowest-scoring offenses belonged to National League playoff teams, but that’s not an ideal outcome if you truly want to make noise in October. Indeed, all three of those clubs (St. Louis, Cincinnati and Milwaukee) failed to advance beyond the playoffs’ initial round during the fall. So what have they and the league’s other two bottom-feeding offenses done to improve themselves this offseason? Not much, as you’ll see below…

Pirates (219 runs scored, 73 wRC+):

  • The Pirates look even worse on paper than they did at the end of the season, having traded first baseman Josh Bell to the Nationals last week. While Bell had a horrid season in 2020, he was a star-caliber performer during the previous year, in which he slashed .277/.367/.569 with 37 home runs. The Bell-less Pirates haven’t done anything of significance to bolster their offense this winter, but the good news is that they should get a full 2021 (however many games that consists of) from third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who ran roughshod over the league during a scintillating 95-PA debut in 2020. There’s also nowhere to go but up for holdovers such as Gregory Polanco, Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier, who each posted awful numbers last season.

Rangers (224 runs, 67 wRC+):

  • The Rangers have a couple newcomers in outfielder David Dahl and first baseman Nate Lowe, who they hope will improve their attack in 2021. Otherwise, they’ll be counting on bounce-back efforts from the likes of Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, Nick Solak, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. It’s hard to imagine things will get any worse next year for that quintet, though Andrus and Odor have been trending in the wrong direction for years. The Rangers are down enough on Andrus these days that they’re planning on using him as a backup shortstop/utilityman behind Isiah Kiner-Falefa next season.

Cardinals (240 runs, 93 wRC+):

  • The Cardinals’ place in these rankings is deceiving because a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak cost them two full games. Their 93 wRC+ was closer to average than horrendous, but that isn’t to say they don’t have work to do offensively. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielder Harrison Bader, two of their best hitters in 2020, are returning. But Brad Miller, who was second on the team in wRC+ (121), is a free agent. Going by wRC+, those three were the only above-average offensive players on last season’s roster. The Cardinals haven’t done anything thus far to better their offense, even though they’re facing questions almost everywhere. Catcher Yadier Molina is a free agent, as is second baseman Kolten Wong, while most of their outfielders underwhelmed at the plate in 2020.

Reds (243 runs, 91 wRC+):

  • The Reds made a real effort to upgrade their offense last winter in signing Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama. Moustakas wound up having a typical season at the plate, but Castellanos and Akiyama fell short of expectations. Barring trades, no one from that group is going anywhere in 2021. Likewise, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Tucker Barnhart will hang around in key roles. Aside from Winker, who was fantastic in 2020, the Reds will need more from everyone listed in the previous sentence. They also need to upgrade at shortstop, where the largely untested Jose Garcia is their current starter, but it’s unclear whether the team will do so to a satisfactory extent during what has been a cost-cutting winter so far.

Brewers (247 runs, 89 wRC+):

  • We’ll cap things off with another NL Central team, Milwaukee, which has joined its division rivals this winter in doing virtually nothing to better its chances of success in 2021. The Brewers opted against retaining infielder Jedd Gyorko, among their most productive hitters last season, instead paying him a $1MM buyout in lieu of exercising his $4.5MM option. They also declined team icon Ryan Braun’s option, but that was an easy decision because the six-time All-Star would have otherwise earned a $15MM salary in 2021. Braun, to his credit, was roughly a league-average hitter last season, which is more than you can say for most Brewers regulars. Whether or not the Brewers bring in outside help, better years from former NL MVP Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez would go a long way in helping the team tack more runs on the board in 2021.

Mets Make Changes To Coaching Staff

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The Mets announced that they have hired Tony Tarasco as their first base coach. The New York City native will also oversee the Mets’ outfielders and baserunning.

The 50-year-old Tarasco carries extensive coaching experience with multiple organizations. He spent the previous five years with the Padres as their minor league performance and outfield/baserunning coordinator. Before that, Tarasco was with the Nationals organization for 10 years in various roles, including as their first base coach. But he’s likely best known for his run as a major league outfielder from 1993-2002. Tarasco spent the last of those seasons as a member of the Mets.

Now back with the Mets in a different role, Tarasco will take over for prior first base coach Tony DeFrancesco, who will remain with the organization as a senior advisor, player development and scouting. DeFrancesco managed the Mets’ Triple-A team from 2018-19 and was then a candidate for the big league managerial job last offseason. That position ultimately went to Luis Rojas, though DeFrancesco was part of his coaching staff in 2020.

Latest On Cubs, Jon Lester

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This offseason has brought major changes to the Cubs, who have lost president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and key on-field contributors in Yu Darvish, Kyle Schwarber and Victor Caratini since the winter began. Free-agent left-hander Jon Lester may be one of the next to officially go, as Robert Murray of FanSided reports “there has been little indication of progress toward a reunion” between the two sides.

Soon to turn 37 years old, Lester reached free agency when the Cubs declined his $25MM option for 2021 in favor of a $10MM buyout. That was a straightforward decision for the Cubs, though Lester didn’t harbor any ill will toward the club in its aftermath. He even said there was “mutual” interest in a new deal once Chicago terminated his previous pact. Since then, however, there hasn’t been much news on Lester. San Francisco is the only reported team that has shown interest in him in the past several weeks.

On paper, losing Lester probably won’t be a big blow to the Cubs. After all, the former star struggled to a 5.16 ERA/5.14 FIP in 61 innings last season, and also wasn’t a world-beater in 2019. However, having made enormous contributions to the franchise since joining it in 2015, Lester is a Cubs great and well-respected veteran who, even in this late stage of his career, has shown he’s capable of eating innings on a regular basis. In fact, he amassed at least 171 2/3 frames in each of his first five seasons as a Cub before last year’s pandemic-shortened campaign.

Lester shouldn’t be expensive for the Cubs to re-sign, but if they don’t bring him back, they may need to find another source(s) of innings from outside the organization. Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies (whom they acquired in the Darvish trade) are the only truly proven starters on the roster. While Alec Mills did pile up 62 1/3 innings in 2020, he didn’t prevent runs at a strong clip. There’s little experience to speak of otherwise among starting possibilities on the Cubs’ 40-man roster. Colin Rea and Adbert Alzolay could vie for spots, and their No. 1-ranked prospect, Brailyn Marquez, might be in for a larger major league role next season after throwing just two-thirds of an inning in 2020.

Hoyer Denies Report Of Cubs Shopping Contreras

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Dec. 30: In a conference call to discuss the Darvish/Caratini trade, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer called any reports of the team shopping Contreras “fictional” (Twitter link via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago). Hoyer, who stressed that the Darvish trade was “not financially motivated,” declined to label any player on his team untouchable and acknowledged that he has received repeated trade inquiries on Contreras, however.

Dec. 29: The Cubs made a couple of significant subtractions from their roster Monday when they agreed to trade right-handed ace Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini to the Padres. Those two may not be the last noteworthy players the Cubs part with in a trade this winter, though, as they’re “extensively shopping” catcher Willson Contreras, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.

The 28-year-old Contreras has been one of the preeminent backstops in the game since he debuted in 2016, so you would think the two-time All-Star would bring back a sizable return for the Cubs. Offensively, Contreras owns a lifetime .265/.351/.463 line (good for a 116 wRC+) and has hit 74 home runs in 1,889 plate appearances. As a defender, Contreras struggled with pitch framing earlier in his career, but he ranked in the league’s 85th percentile in that category last season, according to Statcast. He has also thrown out an above-average 32 percent of would-be base thieves in Chicago.

Adding to Contreras’ appeal in a potential trade, he has another two years of arbitration eligibility remaining. He’s projected to earn between $5MM and $7.4MM next season, but even the higher of those estimates should be intriguing to teams looking for a new starting catcher. That’s especially true when considering J.T. Realmuto, the No. 1 free-agent catcher available, figures to rake in a guarantee well north of $100MM on what’s likely to be a contract of at least five years. Speculatively, the Phillies, Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Yankees, Nationals and archrival Cardinals could be among the teams that at least kick the tires on a Contreras acquisition.

The Cubs don’t seem to have an immediate replacement for Contreras, who teamed with Caratini to form one of the majors’ most effective duos at catcher. Promising prospect Miguel Amaya is the only other backstop on their 40-man roster, though he hasn’t played above High-A ball yet. Of course, Chicago could get back a different catcher in a trade (be it as part of a Contreras swap or another deal) and/or add someone in free agency to help bridge the gap to Amaya.

Padres Acquire Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini

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DEC. 29, 10:07pm: Both teams have announced the trade. The Cubs will pay $3MM of Darvish’s remaining money, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and Heyman. Darvish has $62MM left on his contract – not the previously reported $59MM – because of the incentives he reached for finishing second in 2020 NL Cy Young voting, Bastian notes.

DEC. 28: The Cubs and Padres have agreed to a deal that will send right-hander Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini from Chicago to San Diego, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. The Cubs will receive righty Zach Davies, shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana, and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena in return. The trade is done pending medical records, and the sides could finalize it Tuesday, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  Chicago will pick up “a minor portion” of Darvish’s remaining money, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds.

This deal does not come as a surprise, as the two sides had been in deep discussions about Darvish throughout the day. It’s the latest bold strike for the Padres, who are coming off their first playoff season since 2006 and clearly plan to vie for their first-ever World Series title next year. Even before landing Darvish, they made a huge addition to their rotation Sunday by agreeing to pick up left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays. They also agreed to sign Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, making for an epic 24-hour period of dealmaking for GM A.J. Preller.

The Cubs, meanwhile, are losing perhaps their best starter in Darvish – a 2020 National League Cy Young finalist – as well as a quality catcher in Caratini. Although the Cubs are just a couple months removed from their fifth playoff berth in six years, ownership entered the offseason unlikely to spend after a pandemic-shortened campaign. Indeed, the Cubs previously saved money by saying goodbye to Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora at the non-tender deadline, while pricey third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant has been the subject of trade speculation. It’s unclear whether the Padres will take on all of Darvish’s remaining contract, but if they do, that’ll be $59MM on their books over the next three years. Caratini’s much more affordable, as he will earn a projected $1.2MM to $1.6MM in 2021. Caratini isn’t on track for free agency until after 2023.

In heading to San Diego, Darvish will reunite with Preller, who was part of the Rangers’ front office when they signed Darvish out of Japan before the 2012 season. Darvish, now 34, has since enjoyed a terrific career divided among the Rangers, Dodgers and Cubs, and last season was likely his best yet. He ended up with 76 innings of 2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP ball, posted 11.01 K/9 against 1.66 BB/9, and averaged a personal-high 95.5 mph on his fastball. He’ll now slot in near the top of a rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to Tommy John surgery but will still feature Snell, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack as locks for rotation jobs (barring other aggressive moves). The Padres also boast multiple high-end pitching prospects, including MacKenzie Gore.

Caratini, 27, was Darvish’s personal catcher in Chicago, but he was a reserve behind No. 1 backstop Willson Contreras. Caratini debuted with the Cubs in 2017 and has since offered passable offense relative to his position, having batted .250/.327/.372 in 677 plate appearances. Caratini was also a well-regarded defender in Chicago, including when he ranked in Statcast’s 98th percentile in the pitch-framing department last season. He’ll join Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as catchers on the Padres’ 40-man roster.

For the Cubs, this deal represents their first blockbuster trade under new president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, their former GM who earned a promotion after Theo Epstein stepped down in November. Losing Darvish and Caratini may not go over well for their fan base, but the Cubs are banking on Davies helping replace Darvish in 2021 and the young talent they received emerging as cornerstones.

Davies was somewhat quietly a top-tier starter in 2020, his only year as a Padre, as he recorded 69 1/3 frames of 2.73 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 8.18 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9. He should look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021, though the 27-year-old Davies isn’t controllable beyond then. He’ll earn a projected $6.3MM to $10.6MM via arbitration next season.

The rest of the Cubs’ return doesn’t consist of any elite farmhands, but Kyle Glaser of Baseball America notes that BA was planning to rank Preciado (No. 15), Mena (17), Santana (18) and Caissie (20) among the Padres’ 20 best prospects in its upcoming Prospect Handbook.

Just 17 years old, BA rated Preciado 23rd in the Padres’ farm system midway through last season, writing that the 6-foot-4 switch hitter’s “frame provides hope he can grow into 20-plus home run power as he matures physically.”

Mena, 18, signed an expensive $2.2MM bonus with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic during the 2019-20 international signing period. BA lauded Mena’s speed, range and potential 15- to 20-home run power earlier this year.

The 20-year-old Santana put up impressive production in rookie ball from 2018-19, when he combined for a .306/.418/.425 line in 365 plate appearances. The Canadian-born Caissie, 18, was a second-round pick (No. 45) of the Padres last summer. BA wrote before the draft that Caissie possesses “exciting upside,” though there are “some significant swing-and-miss concerns” in his game.

All things considered, this looks like a trade between two NL playoff teams going in different directions. The Padres appear to be all in on playing for a championship in 2021. It’s hard to say the same for the Cubs, who seem to be a club in retooling mode.

Rays GM Erik Neander Discusses Blake Snell Trade

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Tampa Bay’s rotation took a serious hit this week when the team shipped left-hander Blake Snell to San Diego, and general manager Erik Neander admitted Tuesday (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that the Rays “are not as good a team without him.” Despite that, Neander insisted to Topkin and other reporters that the Rays, who won the American League in 2020, still plan to compete for a championship.

“Our goal is to win a World Series,” Neander said. “Want to make that that very, very clear. … It’s our philosophy, it’s our belief that the best way for us to achieve that goal is to construct playoff-caliber teams year in, year out. For every team that we put out there to have a shot. To avoid the valleys. To not take any years off.”

The Rays seem to be of the belief that the return they received for Snell will help them continue to push for a title for the long haul. On paper, they did get an impressive package for Snell, acquiring three prospects – Luis Patino, Cole Wilcox and Blake Hunt – as well as catcher Francisco Mejia. As Neander suggested, however, it’s tough to see them as a better team right now in the wake of the trade. Even before losing Snell, the Rays said goodbye to right-hander Charlie Morton in free agency. Their only notable free-agent addition of the offseason has been righty Michael Wacha, who had immense difficulty keeping runs off the board with the Cardinals and Mets from 2019-20.

It’s anyone’s guess how the Rays will fill out their 2021 rotation after Wacha, Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough, but they are “in aggressive pursuit of another starter,” Topkin writes. Getting rid of Snell’s three-year, $39MM contract gives the team some money to spend on a short-term deal in free agency if it’s willing, notes Topkin, who adds that the Rays should have a payroll in the $60MM range. The Rays also boast the game’s No. 1 farm system, so they could try to trade for starting help.

While the Rays don’t look as strong as they did a couple months ago, Neander said, “We have a lot of confidence in the group that we have here and we’ve got a lot of time left to continue to build this club out and to get this puzzle where we want it.” Although their budget is at the bottom of the league, Neander & Co. have found a way to keep the Rays afloat on a regular basis. However, Neander acknowledged that there’s “a lot of work to do” with Snell out of the mix.

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