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MLBTR Podcast: What We Learned From The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • At the start of the offseason, we expected players to do better than in 2023-24 and it seems like they did. What can we learn from that? (1:50)
  • Apart from Juan Soto and Willy Adames, a lot of top position players have been struggling in free agency. Is this signal or noise? (7:10)
  • There seems to be growing frustration from fans of small-market clubs, with new CBA talks just over the horizon. How will baseball respond? (20:00)
  • The Mets outbid the Yankees on Soto. Is this a paradigm shift in New York? (36:40)
  • Does the Soto deal help the top of next year’s market, guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker? (45:50)
  • Many Central division teams had almost no money to spend due to TV revenue concerns. Are there solutions coming in the future? (54:40)
  • With the Rays stadium situation, the Twins being for sale, the White Sox and Royals trying to get new stadium money, is expansion possible in the near term? (59:30)
  • Things we’re excited about going into the 2025 season (1:05:55)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Mariners Sign Cal Raleigh To Six-Year Extension

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The Mariners announced that they’ve signed catcher Cal Raleigh to a six-year extension that starts this year. It’s reportedly a $105MM guarantee for the Excel Sports Management client. He had previously agreed to a $5.6MM salary in 2025 to avoid arbitration, so this deal adds five years and $99.4MM in terms of new money. He was slated to hit free agency after 2027, so this deal buys out three free agent seasons and there’s also a vesting option for 2031. Raleigh gets full no-trade protection.

The specific breakdown is a $10MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025, followed by salaries of $11MM and $12MM in 2026 and 2027. He will then make $23MM salaries for three straight years. For 2031, there is a vesting player option valued at $20MM with a $2MM buyout. The option would vest if Raleigh appears in 100 games behind the plate in at least four of the six guaranteed seasons.

Raleigh, now 28, was a third-round pick of the M’s in the 2018 draft. As a prospect, he drew attention as a switch-hitting catcher with notable power. His 2021 debut wasn’t great but he has since established himself as one of the best two-way catchers in the game.

Over the past three seasons, Raleigh has stepped to the plate 1,612 times. His 28.3% strikeout rate in that time is a bit on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a 10% clip and hit 91 home runs. The end result is a .222/.303/.457 line, which translates to a 117 wRC+. That indicates he’s been 17% better than the league average hitter, but that’s even more impressive for a catcher, since they are usually about 10% below average.

The switch-hitter hasn’t been totally balanced in his production. 73 of his 93 career homers have come against righties and he has a .223/.304/.454 line when hitting from the left side. When he turns around to bat right-handed against southpaws, his line drops to .202/.271/.410, though the 94 wRC+ on that latter line is still passable.

Defensively, he’s received strong marks for all aspects but especially his framing. FanGraphs gave him the third-best framing mark last year, behind only Patrick Bailey and Jake Rogers. Statcast had him second only to Bailey.

The overall package is quite strong. FanGraphs has credited him with between 4.2 and 5.3 wins above replacement in each of the past three seasons. That means he was worth a total 13.9 fWAR over the 2022-24 period. That was tops among all catchers in the league and in the top 20 of all position players. It’s difficult to quantify a catcher’s contributions to a pitching staff but Seattle has had strong results from the mound during Raleigh’s time as well.

He just crossed the three-year service line in 2024, qualifying him for arbitration for the first time. As mentioned, he and the club settled at $5.6MM for this year. He would have been slated for two more arbitration passes before hitting free agency after 2027, his age-30 season.

Had he stayed healthy and productive between now and then, he could have perhaps been in line for a strong trip to free agency. However, the earning power of catchers at that age isn’t tremendous, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

While shooting into nine-figure territory and beyond is common for other players, the wear-and-tear of the catching positions make it rare for that group. J.T. Realmuto is actually the only free agent catcher to get to nine figures. He and the Phillies agreed to a five-year, $115.5MM deal going into 2021. Only four other free agent catchers have gone beyond $53MM. Willson Contreras got $87.5MM from the Cardinals, Brian McCann $85MM from the Yankees, Russell Martin $82MM from the Blue Jays and Yasmani Grandal $73MM from the White Sox.

Extensions have been the path for the top deals for catchers. Joe Mauer and Buster Posey are tops on that leaderboard, though those deals are both over a decade old. More recently, some rough comps for Raleigh can be found in Will Smith and Sean Murphy. Smith’s $131.5MM guarantee is larger than Raleigh’s, though he was one year closer to free agency, therefore giving him a bit more earning power. The nine-year term is a bit eye-popping but that was largely viewed as a way to lower the average annual value for tax purposes.

Murphy was in the same three-to-four service window as Raleigh and got $73MM over six years plus a $15MM option. The two players had a broadly similar profile as strong two-way backstops. Raleigh’s deal shoots well beyond that one.

For the Mariners, they generally struggle to attract top free agents. That’s perhaps somewhat due to the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park but more generally about the club not having massive payrolls. Since Jerry Dipoto has been atop the baseball operations department, this is now the eighth contract the club has given out worth more than $24MM. Of those eight, only two of those were free agent deals. They went to Robbie Ray and Yusei Kikuchi, both pitchers.

The six extensions have gone to Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Luis Castillo, Jean Segura, J.P. Crawford and Marco Gonzales. There are couple of pitchers in there but four of the six have gone to position players, showing that to be a preferred way of spending money for the club, particularly the lineup.

Perhaps not coincidentally, Raleigh’s salary jumps up at a time when the club should have some extra payroll capacity down the line. He will almost double his salary from 2027 to 2028, going from $12MM to $23MM. By that time, Castillo’s deal will be done the guaranteed portion, though there is a vesting option for 2028. Castillo would need to throw 180 innings in 2027 and be verified as healthy by an independent surgeon. Even if Castillo is still around in ’28, the deals for Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver, Crawford, Polanco and Víctor Robles will all finish between now and then.

It’s surely an exciting day for Raleigh, the Mariners and their fans. “Big Dumper” has become one of the better backstops in the league and a fan favorite. He’ll now be slated to stick around for six or maybe even seven more years, instead of just three. He’ll be 33 years old in the final guaranteed year of the deal and 34 in 2031, the vesting option year. Barring a future trade, he will eventually spend the majority or perhaps his entire career in Seattle.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides had agreed to six-year, $105MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relayed the no-trade clause. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times first reported on the vesting option that could push the total to $123MM. Passan reported the specific salary breakdown. Rosenthal reported the vesting condition.

Photos courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images.

Reds Select Austin Wynns

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The Reds announced that they have selected catcher Austin Wynns to their roster. To open a spot on the 40-man, they transferred left-hander Brandon Williamson to the 60-day injured list. Williamson underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Adding Wynns has seemed likely for a while now. The Reds previously only had two catchers on their 40-man roster in Tyler Stephenson and Jose Trevino. Stephenson got an MRI on his back a couple of weeks ago which revealed a low-grade oblique strain. That made it inevitable that the Reds would have to add another backstop to pair with Trevino to start the season.

Wynns, 34, was in this role with Cincinnati in 2024 as well. The club selected his contract three times last year, whenever they needed a fresh body. In the first two cases, he was designated for assignment and outrighted back to Louisville a few days later. In the third case, he himself landed on the IL due to a right teres major tear and finished the season there. At season’s end, he was outrighted off the roster again and elected free agency but returned on a fresh minor league pact.

His .230/.277/.332 career batting line isn’t strong but he’s a veteran backstop who has appeared in parts of six big league seasons now. He’s considered a competent defender and the Reds are clearly comfortable with him.

White Sox To Select Nick Maton, Travis Jankowski

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The White Sox have some more roster moves to come. Per Scott Merkin of MLB.com, infielder Brooks Baldwin, infielder Nick Maton and outfielder Travis Jankowski all made the team. Maton and Jankowski aren’t yet on the 40-man roster, so a couple of spots will have to be opened for them. Per James Fegan of Sox Machine, Tyler Gilbert will start the season on the injured list.

Maton, 28, signed a minor league deal with the club in December and has had a strong camp. He hit .289/.357/.632 in his 43 Cactus League plate appearances, which will get him a chance to return to the majors.

He’s been given some chances in the big leagues before, thanks to some strong work on the farm, but those auditions have generally been brief and unsuccessful. He has a line of .267/.375/.454 over the past three minor league seasons, production which translates to a wRC+ of 118. He’s also been put into 185 major league games over the past four seasons but with a tepid line of .205/.303/.357 in those.

The Sox have plenty of uncertainty on their roster and Maton can move all around. He has big league experience at the three infield spots to the left of first base, in addition to some outfield work. He’s also played first in the minors and could be an option there as well. The Sox figure to have Miguel Vargas and Andrew Vaughn at the corner infield spots but the middle infield is less certain. Baldwin, Lenyn Sosa and Jacob Amaya are options but each is fairly lacking in experience, so Maton can earn some playing time in there.

Maton is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors if he doesn’t click. But if he is finally able to carry some of his strong offense up to the majors, he can be controlled for another four seasons since his service clock is just a bit over the two-year line.

Jankowski, 34 in June, has a long track record as a glove-first outfielder. He’s been in 681 big league games over his decade-long career with a .236/.319/.305 batting line. But he has 102 steals and strong defensive grades. Mike Tauchman seems likely to start the season on the injured list due to a hamstring strain and Andrew Benintendi might be the regular designated hitter. That leaves the White Sox with an outfield mix of Luis Robert Jr., Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater and Jankowski.

The moves could lead to more domino effects. The Sox already designated Oscar Colás for assignment earlier today. If they plan to select Mike Clevinger, they’ll need to open three more 40-man spots for him, Maton and Jankowski. Drew Thorpe will be able to open one of those by getting placed on the 60-day injured list, since he’ll miss the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the Sox will have to find two more.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Tigers Send Jason Foley, Andrew Chafin To Minors

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The Tigers are making some surprising roster cuts ahead of the start of the season. Per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, the club is sending both right-hander Jason Foley and left-hander Andrew Chafin to Triple-A Toledo. Foley is on the 40-man roster and will be optioned. Chafin is a veteran on a minor league deal with certain guaranteed opt-out dates but Petzold relays that the southpaw is expected to report to Toledo.

Foley, 29, was last optioned to the minors in April of 2022. He was recalled in May of that year and has been up with the club since then, seemingly establishing himself as a bonafide major leaguer. He’s never had huge strikeout numbers but has succeeded with good control and a grounder-heavy approach.

Overall, he has 199 2/3 innings in the bigs with a 3.16 earned run average, 18.1% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 54.1% ground ball rate. He has emerged as a key leverage arm for the club in recent years. In 2023, he secured 28 holds and seven saves. Last year, he largely took over the closer’s role, racking up 28 saves and eight holds. He qualified for arbitration and is making $3.15MM this year.

In this year’s camp, his 6.14 ERA certainly looks ugly, but it’s a tiny sample of 7 1/3 innings and the numbers under the hood aren’t nearly as bad. He struck out 10 opponents without issuing a walk, with one hit-by-pitch the only free pass of the spring. The five earned runs he allowed came over his first four appearances. The past four were scoreless. A .429 batting average on balls in play and 62.5% strand rate point to much of the damage against him being bad luck.

All in all, it’s a pretty surprising move. It seems as though Brenan Hanifee will get the final bullpen spot over Foley, per Petzold. Hanifee has a strong 2.36 ERA in his career but in just 34 1/3 innings. Similar to Foley, he’s a ground ball guy, with an 18.2% strikeout rate and 54.1% grounder rate thus far.

Ultimately, Opening Day is just one day on the calendar. Bullpen churn is pretty common in today’s game, so Foley could be back up in short order. Still, it’s notable when last year’s closer is sent to the minors without much obvious reason. If Foley spends significant time in the minors this year, it could impact his trajectory. He comes into 2025 with his service clock at three years and 33 days, putting him on track for free agency after 2027. If he spends enough time on optional assignment this season to come up short of the four-year mark, that trip to the open market would be pushed back by a year.

The news on Chafin is also surprising. He’s a pretty reliable veteran with over a decade in the big leagues. He has a 3.42 career ERA and posted a 3.51 ERA last year. Even settling for a minor league deal was a surprise, but at least that deal came with a strong $2.5MM base salary for cracking the majors.

Like Foley, Chafin’s spring numbers look bad at a glance but not so much under a magnifying glass. He posted an ERA of 12.00 by allowing eight earned runs in six innings. He also gave out six walks. However, six of those eight earned runs and five of the six walks were surrendered in his first two innings pitched. He only allowed two runs and one walk in his final four innings, with the final two innings being scoreless and walk-less with five strikeouts.

Given his reputation, it would be fair to write-off his poor spring stats as small-sample weirdness but the Tigers evidently don’t want to make room for him. He’ll report to Toledo and hope for a call-up but he’ll have chances to opt-out on May 1 and June 1.

In another notable move, Petzold reports that utility player Ryan Kreidler will make the Opening Day roster. Kreidler had previously been optioned to the minors but it was reported earlier this week that the club’s injuries might open a spot for him. The Tigers have been hit hard by the injury bug, particularly in center field, with Parker Meadows, Wenceel Pérez and Matt Vierling all slated to start the season on the injured list.

Kreidler has played more infield in his career but the club apparently considers him viable enough in center to bring him up for extra coverage there. It’s unclear who will get the bulk of the playing time in center, but it may be some combination of Kreidler, Riley Greene and Manuel Margot.

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images

Reds To DFA Fairchild, Place Hays On IL; Steer Will Not Go On IL

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The Reds have a few notable moves on tap ahead of Opening Day, as reported by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Despite previous reports that infielder/outfielder Spencer Steer will start the season on the injured list due to a right shoulder injury, he actually will make the Opening Day roster but will be the designated hitter only. However, outfielder Austin Hays will go on the 10-day injured list due to a calf injury. Additionally, outfielder Stuart Fairchild will be designated for assignment tomorrow.

At this point, the details on Hays aren’t clear. He was in the lineup for the club on Sunday, stepping to the plate three times. It hasn’t been publicly reported how he sustained his injury or how severe it is. Opening Day IL stints can be backdated by three days, so it’s possible he could rejoin the club as soon as one week into the season if it’s minor.

As for Steer, his right shoulder has been bothering him going back to last year. Here in camp, he’s been able to swing a bat without pain but the shoulder bugs him when he throws. Manager Terry Francona told members of the media a few days ago that Steer would start the season on the IL but it seems the club has changed that plan recently.

It’s understandable that they don’t want to lose his bat. He hit .271/.356/.464 for a 117 wRC+ in 2023. His line dropped to .225/.319/.402 last year but that seems to have been at least partially bad luck, with his batting average on balls in play dropping from .318 to .260 in those respective seasons. Having him in the DH spot will give the club a bit less flexibility but ideally some extra thump.

As for Fairchild, he has largely been serving as a glove-first depth outfielder for the Reds lately. He exhausted his final option year in 2023 but then managed to stick on the roster last year as the club suffered through a number of injuries.

His glovework has been strong but he has a career batting line of .224/.308/.389, which translates to an 88 wRC+. In camp this year, his numbers were far worse, as he slashed .132/.233/.184 in 45 plate appearances. That performance seems to have sealed his fate. The Reds could have kept Fairchild and optioned guys like Jacob Hurtubise and Blake Dunn to the minors, but will open the season with those two and bump Fairchild off the roster.

Once he’s officially DFA’d, he’ll have at most a week to find out his fate, whether that’s a trade or some destiny on the waiver wire. Despite the poor offense, he does have ten Defensive Runs Saved and nine Outs Above Average in his 1,389 1/3 innings. He’s also stolen 23 bases over the past two years. Perhaps some other club will be interested in grabbing him as a fourth outfielder. If that comes to pass, he can be controlled for four seasons since his service time is between two and three years at the moment.

Without Steer, Hays or Fairchild, the outfield might be in flux to start the season. TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley should be regulars in two spots. Gavin Lux might play a decent amount of left field with Matt McLain at second and Jeimer Candelario at third. Candelario can also play first but it seems as though Christian Encarnacion-Strand will be the regular there. Dunn and Hurtubise could also factor into the mix alongside Lux.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Nationals To Select Brad Lord

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The Nationals are going to promote right-hander Brad Lord to their Opening Day roster, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The righty is not yet on the 40-man, so a corresponding move will be required. That could be an easy call since DJ Herz has been recommended for Tommy John surgery. It’s not fully confirmed that Herz will go under the knife but he will likely miss a decent chunk of time even if he avoids the surgeon’s table.

Lord, 25, isn’t a typical prospect. As Passan mentions in his report and as detailed by Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post last month, Lord has had to grind. While some top draft picks get multi-million-dollar signing bonuses, Lord was an 18th-round selection in 2022 and signed for $125K. He spent this past winter working at a Home Depot in Bradenton, lifting bags of mulch and Christmas trees, around his offseason training.

That makes it all the more impressive that he’s been able to improve his stock in recent years. In 2023, he tossed 104 2/3 innings at the Single-A and High-A levels, working both as a starter and reliever. He posted a 4.04 earned run average, 18.5% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and huge 61.6% ground ball rate.

Last year, he climbed from High-A to Double-A and Triple-A, logging 129 2/3 innings across a combined 29 starts at those three levels with a 2.43 ERA. His grounder rate dropped to 42% but he upped his punchouts to a 25.3% clip. Baseball America ranked him the #29 prospect in the system going into 2025.

Here in camp, his 6.08 ERA doesn’t look so nice, but that’s in a tiny sample of 13 1/3 innings. He was very unfortunate in that time, with an unlucky .348 batting average on balls in play and 50% strand rate. He only struck out 13.8% of batters but got the grounders back up to 55.6%.

He seems likely to start the season working a long relief role for the Nats. They project to have a rotation of MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and Michael Soroka. By having Lord serve the longman role, it will allow the club to keep other potential starters like Shinnosuke Ogasawara and Jackson Rutledge stretched out in Triple-A.

Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images

Jordan Montgomery To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Diamondbacks left-hander Jordan Montgomery says he will be having Tommy John surgery next week, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. He will therefore miss the 2025 season and likely a notable chunk of 2026 as well.

The out-of-nowhere news is a brutal development for the lefty. The past year-plus have already been a challenging time for him and now he’s slated for another year-plus of rehab before he can improve his trajectory.

The southpaw already had Tommy John surgery once, in June of 2018. He missed the latter half of that season and most of 2019. He then had a subpar showing in 2020. He stabilized things for a three-year stretch after that. From 2021 to 2023, he made 94 starts and logged 524 1/3 innings. He had a 3.48 earned run average, 22.5% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 44.5% ground ball rate. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 10.3 wins above replacement for that span. He was a key part of the 2023 Rangers team that won the World Series, tossing 31 innings that postseason with a 2.90 ERA.

He hit free agency after getting that ring and seemed poised for a strong nine-figure contract, but that didn’t come to pass. The 2023-24 offseason was rough for most free agent, with the so-called “Boras Four” becoming the poster children for the chilly winter. Scott Boras clients Montgomery, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger all lingered unsigned into the spring. Each eventually signed a short-term deal that fell well below initial expectations.

In Montgomery’s case, he agreed with the Diamondbacks late in March. It was a one-year, $25MM guarantee, though with an easy path to extra earning power. He could vest a $20MM player option with just ten starts and bump the value to $22.5MM with 18 starts and $25MM with 23 starts.

After missing the start of the season due to his late signing, he never got on track and eventually got bumped to the bullpen. He made 21 starts and four relief appearances, finishing the year with a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings.The club finished 89-73, tied with the Mets and Braves, but those two clubs took the final Wild Card spots via tiebreakers.

In early October, fresh off the sting of just barely missing the playoffs, club owner Ken Kendrick publicly expressed frustration with the Montgomery signing. “Looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did,” Kendrick said. “It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.” While he pointed the finger at himself for suggesting the front office pursue him, it was nonetheless surprising to see an owner publicly roast one of his own players in such a manner.

Despite that apparent tension, Montgomery wasn’t going to walk away from $22.5MM after the season he had. He exercised his player option for the 2025 campaign. That led to a full winter of trade speculation. The Diamondbacks didn’t need him in the rotation, especially after Arizona native Corbin Burnes agreed to sign there. That gave them a projected starting group of Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson.

But Montgomery stayed with Arizona throughout the offseason. Just in the past week, there were some reports of ongoing trade talks. The lefty just pitched a spring game on March 19, less than a week ago. Given the injuries to other pitchers around the league, there seemed to be at least some chance to a club swinging a deal for Montgomery just before Opening Day. That’s obviously off the table now.

For Montgomery, he was surely hoping to engineer a bounceback season in 2025 before returning to the open market. His last foray into free agency didn’t go as planned, enough that he changed his representation and later accused Boras of having “butchered” his case. But he’ll instead go into the 2025-26 offseason still recovering from this surgery. At that point, he’ll likely be looking for a one-year “prove it” deal or perhaps a backloaded two-year pact covering the 2026-27 seasons. He’ll turn 33 years old this December.

For the Diamondbacks, they were also hoping for Montgomery to get things back on track, if only for the cost savings. Per recent reporting, they asked at least one club to take on $13MM of the $22.5MM still owed to the lefty. That was a tall ask but perhaps a strong early-season performance from the lefty could have increased his appeal around the league. Now the club will have no chance of moving any of that money.

The one silver lining is that this clarifies some roster things. Montgomery will be put on the 60-day injured list, giving them an extra 40-man spot to work with. It also crystallizes their rotation plans a bit, since they can just wipe Montgomery off the board. Even without him, they still have six guys for five rotation spots, which perhaps leaves Nelson to work a long relief role until a spot opens up for him.

Photo courtesy of Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images.

Cam Smith To Make Astros’ Roster

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Prospect Cam Smith is going to make the Astros’ Opening Day roster as their right fielder, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The youngster isn’t yet on the 40-man roster and they will need a spot for him, as well as Rafael Montero and Steven Okert. They have two openings already and several candidates for the 60-day injured list, meaning they shouldn’t have trouble finding room for all those guys.

It’s been an incredible whirlwind for Smith, who was a student at Florida State a year ago. In July, the Cubs selected him with the 14th overall pick in the draft and signed him to a $5,070,700 bonus. The Cubs put the young third baseman to work right away, getting him into 15 Single-A games, 12 at High-A and five at Double-A. He walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances and was only struck out at a 17.9% clip. He launched seven home runs in 134 plate appearances and had a combined .313/.396/.609 batting line.

That made him one of the top prospects in baseball going into 2025. The Cubs went into the winter with a loaded farm system but a big league roster that had struggled to push beyond the mushy middle, finishing at 83-79 in each of the past two years. They were looking for a big splash and the Astros were reportedly open to moving Kyle Tucker. He’s a tremendous player but was slated for free agency after 2025, with Houston seemingly having no hope of getting an extension done. The Astros also had a preference to avoid the competitive balance tax this year.

The Cubs, as mentioned, had a very strong farm system. That included a couple of infield guys who were viewed as ahead of Smith. Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie are both on many top 100 prospect lists and each of them reached the Triple-A level in 2024.

All those stars aligned to make the trade happen. The Astros sent Tucker to Wrigley in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and Smith. From the Cubs’ perspective, they were giving up a lot in the long term in order to make a big upgrade in 2025. Smith, as a prospect, was obviously a long play. Paredes still had three years of club control and would be an affordable replacement for Bregman at third base. Wesneski, with five years of club control, gave the club some affordable rotation depth.

Arguably, the Astros were making themselves worse in the short term, in order to save some money and come out ahead in the long run. Bregman and Tucker were two big losses. Parades could make up for some of Bregman’s production but likely not all. The outfield looked clearly worse on paper when compared to last year, especially with Yordan Alvarez slated to spend more time as the designated hitter. But beyond 2025, they weren’t going to have Tucker anyway. Now they would have Paredes, Wesneski and Smith’s contributions.

The short-term picture has changed a lot since camp opened. Smith put up a massive line of .342/.419/.711 in Grapefruit League action. As he started building those impressive numbers, there were whispers that the club wanted to get him work in right field, with Paredes blocking Smith’s natural third base position. It seems he has impressed the decision-makers enough to get the Opening Day nod, despite his very limited professional track record of just 32 professional games, none at the Triple-A level.

The outfield picture also changed in another way. Jose Altuve, who has been Houston’s second baseman for over a decade, is now going to be the left fielder. His glovework at the keystone was never great but has declined significantly as he has pushed into his mid-30s.

Overall, it’s a fascinating gambit for the Astros. Moving Alvarez out of left field makes sense, given all the health scares he has had over the years. Trading Tucker was also risky in its own way. Now they seem likely to feature a regular outfield mix of Jake Meyers in center, flanked by Altuve and Smith. Meyers hasn’t hit much in his career but is a strong defender. That glovework figures to be important, as he’ll be flanked by two converted infielders with no real experience on the grass.

The Altuve/Smith combo seems to have a good chance of outhitting a corner mix of Ben Gamel and Chas McCormick, which seemed like a possible Opening Day alignment as recently as a few weeks ago. Then again, even the best prospects often struggle when first promoted to the majors, so there are no guarantees Smith will immediately flourish. Still, it’s understandable bet on a higher ceiling.

If Smith does thrive, that would obviously help the club in 2025 but it could also benefit the Astros in another way. The current collective bargaining agreement added measures to discourage service time manipulation. One of those prospect promotion incentives is that clubs can receive an extra draft pick just after the first round under certain conditions. If a player is on two of the three top 100 lists from Baseball America, ESPN or MLB.com, they are PPI eligible if their club promotes them early enough in the season to earn a full service year. If such a player wins Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP or Cy Young voting in their pre-arbitration years, the club earns an extra pick. Smith is ranked 55th overall at BA, 73rd at ESPN and 59th at MLB.com and is therefore eligible.

Turning to a few other roster decisions for the Astros, Zach Dezenzo will get a bench spot but Cooper Hummel will not, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Hummel is out of options, so he should be designated for assignment or traded in the coming days.

Hummel has an awful .159/.255/.275 batting line in the majors but has been much better in the minors and has interesting defensive versatility. He has a .285/.419/.480 line over the past four minor league seasons and hit .316/.435/.447 in camp this year. Defensively, he’s an option at all four corner spots. He didn’t play behind the plate in 2024 but did in previous seasons. That could make him attractive to other clubs but he cleared waivers in April of 2024 when he still had an option remaining.

One final bench spot will come down to Brendan Rodgers or Zack Short, manager Joe Espada tells Rome. Both players were signed to minor league deals, so that will be another 40-man spot the team will need to open. But as mentioned, they have lots of 60-day IL candidates and should be fine there.

Images courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images

Angels Sign Nicky Lopez

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The Angels have signed infielder Nicky Lopez to a major league deal, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Earlier, Sam Blum of The Athletic relayed that Lopez has a locker for tonight’s game against the Dodgers. Blum also relayed that left-hander José Quijada does not have a locker, so perhaps he has been removed from the club’s roster. Subsequently, Blum has added that left-hander Angel Perdomo is also without a locker. The 40-man roster count dropped to 39 earlier today with the release of Mickey Moniak. Adding Lopez would bump that back up to 40 but that would drop again if Quijada and/or Perdomo are removed.

Lopez, 30, was in camp with the Cubs on a minor league deal until recently. He was reassigned to minor league camp ahead of that club travelling to Japan for the Tokyo Series. It was reported at that time that he was expected to trigger an opt-out in his deal. He was officially granted his release a few days ago, freeing him up to sign this deal with the Halos.

Broadly speaking, Lopez is a glove-first infielder. He did have one especially strong season at the plate in 2021, though that was largely fuelled by a .347 batting average on balls in play. He has 2,346 big league plate appearances overall with a .248/.312/.314 line and 77 wRC+.

But the defensive profile is strong, with over 2,000 innings at the shortstop position. Defensive Runs Saved has considered him to be roughly average at that spot, before giving him a rough -9 mark last year. Outs Above Average, however, has Lopez at +33 at short in his career. He has also received strong marks for his work at second and third base, with brief showings at first and left field as well.

He was with the White Sox last year and could have been retained for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $5.1MM salary. Given his light hitting, the Sox weren’t willing to pay that. He was passed through waivers in November and elected free agency. He later signed a minor league deal with the Cubs, with that pact coming with a modest $1.5MM salary if he made the majors. Presumably, this deal with the Angels comes with a fairly modest salary.

The Angels have plenty of uncertainty throughout their infield. Shortstop Zach Neto is going to start the season on the injured list as he is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. Third baseman Anthony Rendon underwent hip surgery last month and has been moved to the 60-day injured list. The Angels signed Yoán Moncada to replace Rendon at third but he’s been battling some thumb soreness in camp and hasn’t played in an official spring game since March 12. Second baseman Luis Rengifo has been dealing with a nagging hamstring injury. He’s been back in the lineup for over a week but is hitting .150/.261/.150 in Cactus League action.

As of now, Kevin Newman seems likely to be the club’s shortstop. Rengifo seems to be healthy enough to play either second or third base. Lopez gives them a glove-first guy who can bounce around. Non-roster invitees like Tim Anderson or J.D. Davis could also factor into the mix if added to the roster.

Perdomo and Quijada are both out-of-options lefty relievers. That means they need to be on the active roster or else removed from the 40-man. Nothing official has been announced but their absences from the clubhouse seem to suggest they won’t be making the club.

Quijada, 29, has generally been able to rack up lots of strikeouts but also plenty of walks in his career. To this point, he has 128 innings under his belt with a 4.64 earned run average. He has punched out 30.3% of opponents but given out free passes at a 14.8% clip. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2023, meaning he didn’t pitch much in the past two years.

He qualified for arbitration for the first time after that 2023 season. But due to the surgery, he was only able to bump his salary to $840K, barely above league minimum. He and the Angels agreed to a deal in January that will see him make $1.075MM this year, with a $3.75MM club option for 2026.

Hypothetically, if he were to be passed through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency as a player with at least three years of service time. However, he has less than five years of service, meaning he would have to give up that money to head to the open market. In that scenario, he would likely stick with the Angels as non-roster depth in order to keep his 2025 salary in place.

Perdomo, 31 in May, was acquired from the Braves in a cash deal about a week ago. He has a 5.55 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate and 15.8% walk rate in his career. He only has 48 2/3 innings pitched but has almost three years of service time thanks to many injured list stints. He has a previous career outright and would therefore have the right to elect free agency if passed through waivers.

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