AL East Notes: Neander, Rays Stadium, Hicks, Jays
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times takes an interesting look at how Erik Neander came to land atop the Rays‘ baseball operations department. Neander took an unusual path to his current position, with data providing his hook into the Tampa Bay baseball operations department — but only after a lot of hustle. At MLBTR, we often field emails and chat questions about how to break into the business; perhaps this article serves as something of a guide for what kind of effort it might take, even if you do have ability to go with the passion.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- While Neander will do all he can to squeeze value out of limited payroll resources, the Rays‘ ongoing stadium efforts remain critical to the organization’s long-term viability. On the heels of recent news that the club has settled on a preferred site, Topkin and others at the TB Times have compiled a comprehensive look at the current state of play surrounding the proposed site in Tampa Bay’s Ybor City. Those with interest in the subject will need to read the full post for its many details; suffice to say that a variety of challenges still lay ahead to convert this idea into reality.
- Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks says he’s coming to camp with sights set on winning a starting job in center, as Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. The 28-year-old unquestionably impressed in 2017, with a surprising .266/.372/.475 batting line and 15 home runs. Of course, that’s the first time the switch-hitter has posted above-average offensive production and he has still yet to top four hundred plate appearances (due to performance issues and, more recently, injuries) in a given season. Plus, the Yankees have to consider Jacoby Ellsbury, who isn’t likely to find time playing in the corners with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on hand along with Brett Gardner. It’s certainly still possible that the Yanks will clarify the roster logjam before the start of the season. If not, though, it seems reasonable to anticipate that Ellsbury will at least take a fair amount of time against right-handed pitchers. (While Ellsbury has long thrived against righties, Hicks has traditionally been better against southpaws.)
- John Lott of The Athletic examines the seven recent PED suspensions doled out to Blue Jays Latin American farmhands in a subscription-only post. Of course, there are lots of difficult issues surrounding this subject, due in large part to the difficult incentive system facing these young players. In the case of the Toronto prospects, they were caught using the kinds of unsophisticated substances that MLB deputy commissioner Dan Halem says are easy to detect. Of course, this isn’t a problem facing only the Blue Jays. The Latin American signing and development system, which typically involves so-called buscones and very youthful players, has long been riddled with problems.
Free Agent Notes: LoMo, Phillies, Rangers, Giants
Logan Morrison remains one of quite a few players still waiting for a new contract after a strong 2017 season. Just where he’ll fit remains unclear. The Red Sox have had contact with Morrison’s reps, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (via Twitter), though he seems mostly to be a backup plan as Boston continues to try to work things out with J.D. Martinez. It probably doesn’t help that the Sox already added a lefty-hitting first baseman this winter in Mitch Moreland, but both players could surely coexist on the roster with a DH slot still open and the right-handed-hitting Hanley Ramirez available to share time at both spots.
- We’ve long heard of the Royals as an interesting possibility for LoMo, as Morrison hails from the Kansas City area and the team may well have a notable opening if Eric Hosmer departs. Of course, the Royals are still hoping to land Hosmer at the moment. But if that changes, sources suggest to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link), Morrison would be very interested in talking with his hometown team. From an outside perspective, it seems unlikely that the Royals will dedicate a huge amount of cash for any non-Hosmer free agent. Then again, there could be a nice value opportunity here, particularly since Morrison ought to be an easy player to market at an opportune moment for the franchise.
- The Phillies‘ search for a starter remains a bit of a wild card on the market. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand has the latest, citing sources for the proposition that the Phils are taking an “aggressive” approach, though it’s not entirely clear what that means. While the organization has been tied, at least speculatively, to a wide variety of hurlers, the indication from Feinsand is that the organization is mostly looking currently at one-year targets rather than more significant hurlers. As Feinsand notes, it’s possible to imagine quite a few names that could conceivably fit. Indeed, many of the free agent starters remain available, so a Phillies team in an opportunistic position could yet take any number of different courses in filling out its staff.
- Speaking of teams with some reputed interest in high-end pitching, the Rangers have long been said to have at least a foot in the premium pool even as they have signed a variety of hurlers to manageable deals. GM Jon Daniels says the door is still open, at least a bit, to making free-agent splash, as MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports. “I don’t think we can rule it out,” says Daniels, who also made clear that a major new addition isn’t particularly likely. As for what the slow movement means, Daniels says that’s still an open question. “I don’t think anybody has ever been in this position,” he said. “I’m not sure anybody knows what to expect.”
- While the Giants have little spending space if they are to remain beneath the luxury line, that makes minor-league signings all the more important for the organization. Per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter), the club will put eyes on former ace Tim Lincecum when he holds a planned showcase. Likewise, the San Francisco front office will scout the anticipated free agent spring camp in search of some useful assets.
Rays To Sign Dustin McGowan
The Rays have struck a minor-league deal with righty Dustin McGowan, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). He’ll receive an invitation to MLB camp and would earn a $1.5MM salary in the majors, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
Soon to turn 36, the former first-round pick has spent the past two campaigns with the Marlins. He posted a notable bounceback effort in 2016 but stumbled in last year.
To be fair, McGowan did still managed to handle 77 2/3 frames over 63 appearances, so he’s still capable of bearing a substantial load. But he had a tough season in the results department, posting a 4.75 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.
Despite carrying a typically solid 50.9% groundball rate last year, McGowan coughed up 13 home runs. He also lost some velocity after showing career-best rates in 2016, but still averaged over 94 with both his four and two-seam fastballs.
In the aggregate, it seems McGowan will have his work cut out to earn a shot on the Opening Day roster. At a minimum, he’ll have a chance to establish position on the overall reliever depth chart. It’s worth remembering that there could yet be some added opportunities in Tampa Bay depending upon how the rest of the offseason unfolds.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/8/18
We’ll keep tabs on the latest minor moves in this post …
- Outfielder Collin Cowgill has signed on with the Phillies on a minor league pact, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The 31-year-old Cowgill would earn an $800K base salary if he cracked the big league roster, per Nightengale, though he’ll have an uphill battle ahead of him in that regard. Philadelphia will have Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr, Nick Williams and Roman Quinn in the outfield mix as it is. Cowgill didn’t play in the Majors in 2017 and only logged nine games in 2016. He’s a career .234/.297/.329 hitter in parts of six Major League seasons and a career .283/.356/.431 hitter in seven Triple-A seasons.
Earlier Moves
- The Yankees have agreed to a minor-league deal with outfielder Shane Robinson, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). He could earn at a $950K rate in the majors and will receive an invitation to MLB camp this spring. The 33-year-old Robinson has long been a reserve/depth piece, seeing action in eight MLB campaigns but compiling only 795 total plate appearances at the game’s highest level. He spent most of 2017 with the Angels’ top affiliate, slashing a sturdy .319/.370/.425 in his 385 trips to the plate.
- Righty Stephen Fife is heading back stateside after signing on with the Indians, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). The 31-year-old, a third-round pick in 2008, hasn’t seen the majors since 2014 but does own a 3.66 ERA in 91 career frames. Fife made five starts last year for Japan’s Seibu Lions, but struggled to a 6.86 ERA with 11 strikeouts and 13 walks in just 21 frames. He’ll be looking to get back on track with the Cleveland organization, though he’ll certainly face very long odds to crack the roster out of camp.
Latest On Eduardo Nunez
Feb. 8: Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com tweets that the Braves can be counted among the teams that have “serious” interest in Nunez. Atlanta has something of an opening at third base, where Johan Camargo is presently projected to serve as a bridge to prospect Austin Riley.
However, there have also been multiple reports that the Braves aren’t likely to make a big splash at the hot corner; David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution recently characterized any such addition as unlikely, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that the Braves would primarily be open to a one-year deal with any third base target. Given the fairly robust level of interest in the versatile Nunez, it seems unlikely that he’d command only a one-year pact.
Feb. 6: Veteran infielder Eduardo Nunez has long seemed likely to command fairly broad interest, though his market got underway only recently since he spent the early part of the offseason recovering from a knee injury (though he was able to avoid surgery). It still seems that there’s some room for development in his market, as interest continues to percolate.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, via Twitter, the Rays have joined the division-rival Red Sox and Yankees with interest. Tampa Bay, according to Rosenthal, is generally gauging the market for right-handed bats while simultaneously fielding interest in some of its presently more expensive assets, including Jake Odorizzi and Alex Colome. In theory, either or both could be traded for younger, more controllable assets while clearing some salary for a free-agent addition such as Nunez.
Nunez has been tied most closely in recent weeks to Boston (see here and here), and Rosenthal wrote again tonight that the Red Sox have shown interest in re-signing him. But he has also been connected to both New York organizations and a host of other possible destinations given his experience at third base, shortstop, second base and in left field. While Nunez doesn’t thrive at any one position and grades out below average at several, the ability to place him at multiple spots on a short-term basis holds plenty of appeal all the same. He’s also taken his offensive game to a new level in recent seasons, slashing .296/.332/.443 in 1290 plate appearances for the Twins, Giants and Red Sox dating back to the 2015 campaign.
Of course, the Mets are no longer a reasonable possibility; per John Harper of the New York Daily News, the club believed it could’ve signed Nunez for approximately the same price it paid Todd Frazier (two years and $17MM). After some internal debate, though, the club opted for Frazier’s power and glovework at the hot corner over Nunez’s superior batting average and baserunning prowess but weaker contact profile and glovework.
NL East Notes: Mets, Cole, Jay, Braves
As the Mets have now managed to check off their most pressing needs at fairly reasonable prices, some attention has turned to the question whether the organization might now go on to spend on a starter. GM Sandy Alderson noted that “some opportunities arose for us that probably would not have been expected right after the end of the World Series,” as James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Given the noted health questions for the talented Mets pitching staff, the thinking goes, perhaps the team will look to score some rotation value and thrust itself into clear contention status. To this point, though, the Mets “have yet to engage in meaningful discussions” with free agent hurlers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Rather, the focus seems still to be on finding some pitching depth.
More from the division…
- At a recent Nationals Hot Stove event, GM Mike Rizzo plainly stated that, as things presently stand, right-hander A.J. Cole is his team’s fifth starter (link via TalkNats.com). “Our number five starter, you know, is A.J. Cole which I’m really looking forward to seeing where he’s at this year,” said Rizzo. “If you look at his numbers last year, his last seven starts were outstanding. He pitched in eleven games last year in the big leagues with eight starts and had a 3.81 ERA… Look at the other teams in our division. See where that ERA ranks on those other staffs.” Of course, fielding-independent metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all pegged Cole north of 5.00, due largely to a 4.7 BB/9 rate and a pedestrian 7.6 K/9 mark. One would think, too, that a strong Spring Training effort from someone such as Austin Voth or Erick Fedde could impact that plan, as could the addition of an arm via free agency or trade. At present, though, it’s certainly noteworthy that the job is Cole’s to lose. Cole figures to make the roster in some capacity, as he’s out of minor league options.
- Jon Jay “appears to be a consideration” for the Marlins in free agency, FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column. Jay has some local ties, having played his college ball at Miami, though it’s not entirely clear at this point how much the Marlins are willing to spend. Heyman suggests that their payroll is south of the $85MM mark at present, though between the commitments to Wei-Yin Chen ($10MM salary + $8MM deferred signing bonus payment this June), Martin Prado ($13.5MM), Starlin Castro ($10MM), Brad Ziegler ($9MM), Junichi Tazawa ($7MM), Derek Dietrich ($2.9MM), Justin Bour ($3.4MM), J.T. Realmuto ($2.9MM) and Miguel Rojas ($1.18MM) they’re at nearly $68MM. Add in the $13MM they owe Edinson Volquez, the remaining unresolved arb case of Dan Straily and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and it’d seem they’re still north of $90MM.
- Heyman also notes that the Braves would add a third baseman if they can find a match on a one-year deal, but they’re comfortable using Johan Camargo there for a year while waiting for prospect Austin Riley to finish off his development in the upper minors. More generally, he adds that they’re looking more at “depth” signings than anything else at this point of the offseason.
Cubs Defeat Justin Grimm In Arbitration
The Cubs have won their arbitration hearing against righty Justin Grimm, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter link). Grimm will play for $2.2MM in the coming season after filing for a $2.475MM salary.
Grimm, who earned $1.825MM in 2017, struggled to a 5.53 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.93 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 55 1/3 innings for the Cubs last year. The 2017-18 offseason marks his third winter of arbitration eligibility, though due to his status as a Super Two player, he’ll be eligible once more next offseason before reaching free agency upon the completion of the 2019 campaign.
Grimm represented the last unresolved arbitration case for the Cubs, who had previously cut deals to avoid a hearing with Kris Bryant, Tommy La Stella, Kyle Hendricks, Addison Russell and Justin Wilson.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Cards, Mets, Arbitration, Free Agent Standoff
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Latest On Market For Lance Lynn
Free agent hurler Lance Lynn has received interest from “seven or eight teams,” according to a report from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His former team, the Cardinals, is not one of them.
Lynn, of course, declined a qualifying offer from St. Louis at the start the offseason. It seems the club is now content to allow him to leave, knowing that it’ll receive a draft choice after the Competitive Balance Round B selections so long as Lynn signs before this year’s draft.
Clearly, Lynn is worthy of punting some draft compensation. But while the CBA’s new qualifying offer rules have generally put that matter on the back burner, parting with draft value is still a factor in any free agent case. (MLBTR has run down what draft picks each team would need to sacrifice to sign a qualified free agent such as Lynn.)
As we’ve noted of late, Lynn has had a quiet offseason but remains an easy-to-visualize fit with quite a few organizations. Among the teams showing some level of interest, per Goold, are the Brewers and Cubs — two teams that are plenty familiar with Lynn from his lengthy stint with the Cardinals. The article also rounds up reported interest from other quarters, mentioning the Orioles, Twins, Nationals, and Mets as plausible suitors. Indeed, a run through MLBTR’s log of posts involving Lynn shows no shortage of possibilities.
Lynn himself discussed the situation with Goold, though he declined to get into specifics on teams. You’ll want to read the entire piece, as it’s loaded with interesting information and discussion, but generally Lynn suggests he feels comfortable preparing as normal despite his lack of a contract. “I haven’t missed anything,” he said. “There’s nothing really to worry about — at this moment.”
Goold also examines Lynn’s value against prior open-market players, suggesting the Tigers’ signing of Jordan Zimmermann — five years and $110MM, with strong no-trade protection — as a comp. While there’s certainly an argument to be made for that kind of analogy given Lynn’s bottom-line results, the view of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes — as explained first in the MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents list and expanded upon in his free agent profile of Lynn — is that the veteran righty isn’t quite in that stratosphere, due in large part to concerns with the peripherals. MLBTR has pegged Lynn for a four-year deal in the $14MM or $15MM annual range, citing a variety of teams as plausible fits on paper.
In large part, the overall market picture remains much the same as it was when Dierkes set out to evaluate things before the action got underway. Just how Lynn’s situation will shake out, though, is even more difficult to predict now than it was then. The overall tenor of Lynn’s comments, and Goold’s reporting, suggests that this free agent case is not particularly close to resolution.
Zack Wheeler Defeats Mets In Arbitration
Mets righty Zack Wheeler has won his arbitration case against the team, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Wheeler, a client of Jet Sports Management, will earn the $1.9MM he requested rather than the $1.5MM figure the team sought.
Obviously, the arbitration panel’s decision won’t have a drastic impact on the New York balance sheet for the coming season. And it won’t mean much for the future, either, as Wheeler only has one additional season of arbitration eligibility remaining.
Still, this is a relatively substantial victory — certainly, from Wheeler’s perspective but also for a union that’s currently engaged in a larger rhetorical battle as the free agent market limps along. As MLBTR’s 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker shows, the players have thus far taken seven of ten arbitration cases, with thirteen still left to be decided.
Wheeler, 27, returned from a long Tommy John layoff to make 17 MLB starts last year. He still has a ways to go, though, to regain his former trajectory, as he ended the year with a 5.21 ERA and 8.4 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 over 86 1/3 frames.