Jeff Todd | MLB Trade Rumors

Extension Candidate: Aaron Nola

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2017 at 4:20pm CDT

The Phillies have scrupulously maintained their future balance sheets, preferring not to make any commitments that might tie their hands in future seasons. But the organization has already made one exception, inking Odubel Herrera last winter, and could explore yet more extensions with core players this winter.

One could probably make a case for a very early strike with one of the team’s less-experienced would-be stars — chief among them, Rhys Hoskins. But by far the likeliest candidate for a long-term deal is righty Aaron Nola, who was selected with the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft and has since established himself as one of the game’s better young starters.

Nola, 24, reached the majors after just 30 minor-league appearances, showing quite well in his 13-start debut at just 22 years of age. Last year, though, he faded after a strong opening and ended the season facing injury questions. Nola ultimately avoided surgery for some UCL and flexor tendon issues and was able to rehabilitate through the problem over the offseason.

It’s easy to forget now, but entering the current season, nobody was quite sure what to expect from Nola. He responded with 168 innings of 3.54 ERA ball. Nola also racked up 9.9 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 along with a 49.8% ground-ball rate in his 27 starts, showing career-best numbers in average fastball velocity (92.5 mph) and swinging-strike rate (10.8%).

Looking at Nola’s overall body of work, it’s hard not to be impressed. While he did struggle to keep runs off the board in 2016, advanced metrics have basically loved him from day one. Through 356 2/3 MLB frames, he carries a 3.38 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, and 3.52 SIERA.

The hugely positive outlook on his future makes Nola a bargain, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron suggested when ranking him 49th in all of baseball on his top 50 trade value rankings. Because he didn’t reach the Majors quite soon enough back in 2015, Nola will fall shy of Super Two qualification, meaning he’ll play at (or near) the league minimum in 2018 before reaching his three years of arbitration eligibility.

While Nola did take home over $3MM to sign out of LSU, he has another year to wait for significant Major League earnings. That means risk aplenty, which is true of any pitcher but perhaps especially so for Nola, given his prior injury scare. He and the team are aware of the details of the medical situation and thus can adequately account for the risk it entails, but that factor could also push him in the direction of weighing a contract extension.

It’s tempting to speak abstractly about a possible discount for the injury questions. In truth, though, the more interesting question is just what framework might be utilized as a starting point for talks. To this point, no pre-arbitration starter has scored a guarantee of over $40MM. Even Corey Kluber, a 2+ service-class pitcher like Nola, was promised $38.5MM over five years (while giving up two option years) in his 2015 contract. Kluber was more than five years older than Nola is now but also was coming off of a Cy Young Award at the time.

The Kluber deal largely fell in line with prior pre-arb starter contracts, though, and even moved the standard up a bit. Chris Sale ($32.5MM), Derek Holland ($28.5MM), and Trevor Cahill ($30.5MM) are a few of the prior 2+ service hurlers that took five-year deals with similar structures.

Though Nola has staked out a claim as a top-quality young starter, it’s hard to argue that he has shown more to this point than had Sale or Madison Bumgarner (who signed his own five-year, $35MM deal as a 1+ service-class player). Considerations of inflation could be somewhat offset by Nola’s health record, though his representatives would surely argue that his avoidance of surgery and a 2017 season free of arm issues render that a largely moot point.

Provisions could be worked in that would protect the team in the event of an elbow flare-up, such as the addition of cheap option years at the end of the pact. (For example, both Felix Hernandez and John Lackey have previously agreed to clauses that add a league-minimum option to the end of their deal in the event of Tommy John surgery) Or, perhaps the wealthy Phils would be willing mostly to look past Nola’s elbow questions in the hunt for upside, reasoning that the overall risk is minimal and that the open-market price for pitching has steadily risen in recent years and figures to do so between now and the point at which Nola himself would reach the open market.

The previously mentioned five-year structure would run through Nola’s age-29 season and buy out one free-agent year. That’s still a lucrative age at which to reach the open market, though the Phils may seek to add a club option or two that’d further delay his path to the open market. Reaching free agency in advance of his age-31 season would leave Nola with plenty of earning capacity, though tacking on a second club option (and thus delaying his free agency by three full years) could be a tough sell. Generally speaking, Nola and his reps at Paragon Sports would be weighing whether an immediate guarantee is worth forgoing the opportunity to reach free agency before his age-29 season — an age at which he’d almost certainly be one of the youngest starters on the market.

With a number of factors for both sides to weigh, it’ll be an interesting situation to watch if the Phillies and Nola do indeed sit down this winter. Nola could well become the latest Phillies player to secure a long-term commitment as part of the organization’s hopeful contending core, but his proximity to arbitration should reduce his urgency to take a deal to some extent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL East Notes: Strasburg, Phils, Mets

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2017 at 1:21pm CDT

The Nationals have reversed course on yesterday’s announcement that Tanner Roark would take the ball for this afternoon’s win-or-go-home NLDS Game 4. Instead, star righty Stephen Strasburg will make the start against the Cubs after indications were that he’d be unavailable due to illness. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo says that Strasburg offered to pitch last night, but at the time seemed too ill to go. (Via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, on Twitter.) After a more aggressive treatment, though, Strasburg reported feeling better this morning and asked for the nod.

Much of the story here lies in the backdrop of yesterday’s rainy-day drama and the longer-running narratives surrounding Strasburg, which Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post broke down perfectly this morning before the change of direction. Needless to say, the stakes are now raised in an already momentous game for the Nats, who are trying to avoid a fourth-straight NLDS exit.

Hazen, Hall On D-Backs’ Offseason Plans

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2017 at 10:18am CDT

Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen and president Derrick Hall chatted about the organization’s plans after the culmination of an exciting season, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.

Both suggested an interest in continuity while also contemplating the possibility of some changes in the makeup of the roster. Certainly, there’ll be some complications as the organization seeks ways to improve the on-field result. Hazen downplayed financial considerations as a catalyst for roster moves, but both he and Hall acknowledged their import.

“I’m not anticipating a lot of challenges with being able to bring the group back as constituted if, in fact, that’s what we chose to do,” said Hazen. While “some changes” are to be anticipated, he said, “I don’t think a large majority of that will be driven by (finances) specifically.”

Hall was a bit more explicit about the limitations. Suggesting that the team has been a bit hasty in doubling down on prior quality seasons, he cited “the need for sustainability” in an offseason approach. Ultimately, said Hall, “we have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”

It’s hard to guess just what kind of creative options might conceivably be pursued. The team could consider trading away some of its relatively more expensive players, though that seems to be quite a challenge from the outside. In all likelihood, Arizona would need to hang onto significant future obligations (or sweeten the pot with prospects) to move Zack Greinke or Yasmany Tomas. Trading or non-tendering arb-eligible players could result in some savings, though in almost all cases that would mean opening up corresponding holes.

While the Snakes have a relatively modest $60.5MM committed to 2018 payroll, that sum accounts for just four players. Indeed, more than half is ticketed for Greinke alone, which helps to illustrate just how relatively massive that commitment was and is for this organization. But that’s not the only source of salary. As Piecoro notes, the MLBTR arb projections call for a hefty tally of just over $50MM for Arizona.

This year, the D-Backs opened with a payroll in the $93MM range and ultimately topped out at around $105MM, per Piecoro. In the past, the Opening Day balance sheet has been as high as $112MM. Clearly, though, the club will approach or exceed that amount just by holding pat.

None of the above numbers account for star outfielder J.D. Martinez, who was added at the deadline and is now headed for free agency. There are others, too, who’ll need to be replaced — especially closer Fernando Rodney, relievers Jorge De La Rosa and David Hernandez, and catcher Chris Iannetta. Finding new players for those roles may not be prohibitively expensive, though as ever there’s generally a tradeoff between the cost and the quality of an asset.

Regarding Martinez, who’s expected to command a huge commitment after a monster season, the D-Backs say they’ll at least try to facilitate a return. In Hazen’s words, the club will “certainly stay engaged” with Martinez. Adding the kind of annual salary that the slugger could command would surely require a significant payroll boost and/or the shedding of some other major commitments.

Red Sox Fire John Farrell

By Jeff Todd | October 11, 2017 at 8:29am CDT

The Red Sox have announced that John Farrell will not return as manager. The team had previously exercised its 2018 club option over the skipper, but will now change course and pursue another option.

A search is set to begin immediately, per the club announcement. The Mets, Phillies, and Tigers are also looking for new managers at this point, so there will be some competition.

Farrell took over in Boston after the team’s ill-fated 2012 season. The relationship got off to quite a start, as the Sox ran up 97 wins and streaked to a World Series win in 2013.

Two-straight last-place divisional finishes followed, however, leading to the departure of then-GM Ben Cherington. His replacement at the top of the baseball ops pyramid, Dave Dombrowski, decided to retain Farrell for each of the last two seasons.

Regular-season results have followed, as the organization added significant new pieces and paced the AL East with 93 wins in both 2016 and 2017. Unfortunately, though, the postseason results have also been the same: consecutive first-round wash-outs.

Of course, there’s only so much Farrell could have done differently to stave off elimination. The Sox were swept last year by the eventual American League champion Indians. And this year, the team ran into an Astros buzzsaw, rebounding to avoid another sweep and make the fourth game competitive but ultimately falling short.

Farrell’s tenure had its ups and downs off of the field as well. He battled through lymphoma during his tenure. And Farrell also kicked up some controversy when he and his wife divorced and rumors arose of a relationship with a local reporter.

Ultimately, it seems the Boston higher-ups felt that gains could be achieved by pursuing a new direction. Plenty of names have been tossed around in the immediate aftermath of the move, though as yet no clear connections have been made. Clearly, Boston will be looking for someone that can move the team into and through the postseason, though otherwise little is known. Dombrowski is expected to meet with the media later this morning.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Lucroy

By Jeff Todd | October 10, 2017 at 12:47pm CDT

Generally, of course, Jonathan Lucroy’s stock is down on the heels of a disappointing season. He entered the year with a chance at earning Russell Martin-type money — $82MM over five years — but now won’t scrape that stratosphere.

That said, there’s still a lot of value in the veteran. Just how much? Let’s take a look.

First and foremost, it’s important to note just how good Lucroy was from 2012 through 2016. After all, there’s a reason that folks thought he could meet or exceed that Martin contract. In 641 games over that span, Lucroy posted an excellent .291/.353/.465 batting line that rated about twenty percent above the league-average output. For a catcher that also was regarded among the best at defending his position, those are monster numbers.

That five-year run serves as a notable backdrop for what happened in 2017. Lucroy struggled badly out of the gates, slashing just .242/.297/.338 in his 306 plate appearances with the Rangers. He hit just four home runs in that stretch after drilling 24 in the prior season in 544 trips to the plate. Just as suddenly, though, Lucroy bounced back upon his summer trade to the Rockies. In his 175 turns, the veteran posted a .310/.429/.437 mark while drawing 27 walks against just 19 strikeouts. The power did not fully return — he hit only two more long balls — but clearly Lucroy was again an above-average offensive performer, even after accounting for the altitude boost.

So, how does one frame the recent years? Was the first half of 2017 just a detour? Or should we figure in Lucroy’s tepid 2015 season and isolate his excellent 2016 season as the outlier? What about that waning power?

In all likelihood, clubs will land somewhere in the middle on all of this. It’s certainly quite promising that Lucroy has restored his plate discipline nearly to the levels it stood in 2014, when he walked (10.1%) nearly as often as he struck out (10.8%) over 655 plate appearances. But his isolated slugging mark has now sat below the league average in two of the past three seasons. Plus, Lucroy managed only an anemic 22.3% hard-hit rate in 2017 while his groundball rate soared to over fifty percent for the first time in his career.

Of course, there’s still the matter of Lucroy’s work in the field to be accounted for. There was a time when his mastery of the dark arts behind the dish significantly bolstered the 31-year-old’s value. When he posted 6.2 fWAR in 2014, that was arguably an understatement, as it failed to account for Lucroy’s otherworldly framing skills and management of the pitching staff over a 153-game grind.

Now, the picture seems quite a bit different. Framing metrics panned Lucroy’s work over the first half of 2017. Though he ticked upward in Colorado, it’s still a far sight from the days when Lucroy was the poster child for the newly illuminated art of strike gathering. Still, he drew positive grades as recently as 2016, and it would be rather surprising for such a remarkable degradation in skill to occur so suddenly, so perhaps there’s a bounceback (or another explanation) here. And it’s worth noting that Lucroy has drawn plaudits for his presence on the defensive side from Rockies skipper Bud Black.

All told, the signals leave quite a lot of room for interpretation. No doubt many organizations will feel differently than others about what to expect from Lucroy. All will value the fact that he has been one of only four catchers to top three thousand plate appearances since the start of 2012 (and one of only three to post more than twenty WAR in that span). He seems clearly worthy of being awarded a regular job, but guessing at an earning range is more difficult. And that depends, too, on market factors.

Obviously there’s reason to expect that the Rockies could be interested in a return. The team has indicated satisfaction with Lucroy’s work and could use him just as much next year as this, though there are also internal options to be considered. Lucroy himself has made clear he’d welcome a chance to return. Beyond that, the possibilities are a bit more difficult to suss out. Few contenders have really clear needs behind the plate, though contending organizations such as the Diamondbacks, Angels, and perhaps Nationals could consider a move.

Other possible suitors could yet emerge. But Lucroy will face some competition. It helps that Kurt Suzuki has decided to remain with the Braves. But Welington Castillo is likely to decline his player option and Alex Avila will return to the open market. Chris Iannetta had a strong year, and he’s one of several solid veterans that may represent more cost-conscious options for organizations that prefer a timeshare at the position rather than paying more to land a heavily-used regular.

Recent comps are of limited utility, too. Big dollars have gone to Martin and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM), but as noted at the outset that seems highly unlikely here. Looking at other significant, multi-year deals, though, there’s a big gulf between those larger contracts and the three-year pacts signed by Jason Castro ($24.5MM) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($21MM). Lucroy has a strong argument to out-earn that pair, so it seems reasonable to anticipate at least a three-year arrangement with some possibility for a fourth.

Perhaps Francisco Cervelli’s three-year, $31MM extension represents a more noteworthy marker in this case. It’s telling, too, that Matt Wieters was guaranteed $21MM over two years despite a clearly inferior record to that of Lucroy, perhaps further suggesting that Lucroy ought to command an eight-figure annual commitment. Ultimately, it’s easy to imagine pursuit by two or more determined organizations pushing up the guarantee past the Cervelli level. Demand is less than crystal clear, so there’s some downside risk here as well, though it helps that Lucroy will not be subject to a qualifying offer since he was dealt in the middle of the season. Regardless of how it all shakes out, two things are clear after Lucroy’s 2017 campaign: he won’t be paid like the top-flight player he was for the prior five seasons, but he’ll still earn a hefty commitment when he hits the open market for the first time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: Allen, Sano, Beckham, Rangers, Claudio

By Jeff Todd | October 10, 2017 at 10:21am CDT

The Twins have decided to part ways with pitching coach Neil Allen, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune writes. While Paul Molitor will remain as the manager after inking a new deal, the organization is now on the market for a new hand to guide the pitching staff. Minnesota is sure to enter the offseason in search of ways to boost the productivity of its rotation after a season in which only two starters (Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios) turned in high-quality overall campaigns. While others showed signs at times — Kyle Gibson finished strong, for example — there’s clearly room to improve through both new acquisitions and internal development.

Here’s more from the American League:

In other Twins news, the organization does not presently expect Miguel Sano to require surgery to address his shin injury, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Though there have been some prior indications to the contrary, a surgical option would be an “extreme” measure and isn’t on the table at this point, per the report. Berardino adds that young reliever J.T. Chargois is also not under consideration for a surgical approach despite missing virtually all of the season due to elbow problems. You’ll also find some player reactions to the coaching staff decisions at the link.
What can the Orioles expect from shortstop Tim Beckham in 2018? Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun takes an interesting look at Beckham’s two months in Baltimore, explaining that Beckham no longer consistently made high-quality contact and reverted to his high-strikeout ways after his outstanding performance in August. All in all, Meoli sees signs of optimism despite Beckham’s inconsistencies. For a team with other significant needs, especially in the rotation, there’s probably little choice but to roll with Beckham — whose deadline acquisition still looks like an excellent move — and hope for the best.
Another organization that figures to focus on pitching this winter, the Rangers, need to add volume to fill out their rotation, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reasons. The club likely won’t have the cash needed to add impact arms and needs to account for many spots on its rotation depth chart, beyond the five pitchers that’ll start the year in the rotation. Grant’s discussion drives home the challenge facing the Texas front office and the many moving parts involved.
Meanwhile, the Rangers have authorized southpaw Alex Claudio to play in the Puerto Rican winter league despite his heavy usage this year, as Gerry Fraley of the Morning News writes. Claudio has now established himself as a quality late-inning piece after turning in 82 2/3 frames of 2.50 ERA ball, with just 6.1 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 but a dominating 66.7% groundball rate on the year. While GM Jon Daniels says the club was inclined initially to protect Claudio, he notes that the reliever has succeeded based upon a routine that has long included winter ball stints. This year, moreover, the devastation of Hurricane Maria has pushed back and shortened the schedule.

Brandon Guyer To Undergo Surgery

By Jeff Todd | October 10, 2017 at 8:12am CDT

Indians outfielder Brandon Guyer is set to undergo surgery on his left wrist, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal reports on Twitter. The club provided a bit more detail in an announcement, noting that the procedure will involve a repair of the extensor tendon.

At this point, it’s not clear how long Guyer will miss; more will be known after he emerges from surgery. Regardless of the prognosis, he’s under contract for next season under the two-year, $5MM deal he signed in January. Cleveland also possesses a $3MM option (with a $250K buyout) for 2019.

Obviously, the injury news means that Guyer won’t be a part of the Indians’ postseason run, though that had largely become clear already. The 31-year-old endured an injury-limited and disappointing 2017 campaign. Through 192 plate appearances, he slashed just .236/.326/.327 with a pair of long balls.

Prior to the current season, Guyer has been a source of solidly above-average hitting line he carried to that point. While he has never done much damage against same-handed pitching, Guyer has been a weapon against lefties, posting a lifetime .281/.379/.448 batting line.

Right-hander Adam Plutko has undergone his own surgery, the team further noted. In his case, a procedure to repair his right hip labrum is likely to sideline him for four to six months. Plutko briefly cracked the majors last year but struggled to a 5.90 ERA in 135 2/3 Triple-A frames in 2017.

Guillermo Heredia Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

By Jeff Todd | October 9, 2017 at 9:05pm CDT

Mariners outfielder Guillermo Heredia has undergone surgery on his right shoulder, per a club announcement. With a full offseason to recover, the 26-year-old is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

While the overall prognosis seems promising, it appears to be a fairly significant surgery. Heredia is said to have required repair of a Bankart lesion — one of the varieties of labrum tears that can occur.

Fortunately, though, the injury did not occur to his throwing side. More importantly, he’s not a pitcher. And given the timing, there’s plenty of time for rehab work.

Heredia played a significant role for the M’s this year and is expected to continue to do so into the future. While he’s generally regarded as a talented defender, though, he managed only a .249/.315/.337 slash with six home runs over 426 plate appearances in 2017. Clearly, that output will need to increase if he’s going to keep receiving so much playing time.

Seattle is already going to be looking to add an outfielder with Jarrod Dyson heading to free agency. Heredia’s status injects a bit of added uncertainty to the situation, though given the outlook it doesn’t seem as if Seattle’s plans will change significantly due to the surgery.

Angels Acquire Felix Pena, Designate Jason Gurka

By Jeff Todd | October 9, 2017 at 7:26pm CDT

The Angels have announced the acquisition of righty Felix Pena from the Cubs. Los Angeles designated southpaw Jason Gurka for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Pena, a 27-year-old from the Dominican Republic, had made 36 MLB appearances over the past two seasons. He carries a 4.98 ERA in the majors, with 10.4 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9. Nine opposing long balls have accounted for quite a bit of the damage against him.

For Los Angeles, this is an opportunity to take a shot on a hurler that has at times shown signs of more. He had generally produced quality results in the minors as a starter before moving to the pen and of late has boosted his strikeout numbers. Pena carries a promising 12.7% swinging-strike in the majors.

As for Gurka, he’ll have an opportunity to test the open market if he’s not claimed. He made it up to the majors briefly late this year, but spent the bulk of the season at Triple-A. Gurka was rather impressive overall, spinning 50 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball with 9.9 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 at the highest level of the minors, but he has failed to receive extended MLB looks in the past despite quality minor-league numbers.

Rookie Davis Undergoes Hip Surgery

By Jeff Todd | October 9, 2017 at 5:16pm CDT

Reds right-hander Rookie Davis has undergone surgery on his right hip, per a club announcement (h/t MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, on Twitter). Specifically, repair work was done to the labrum and a bone spur was removed.

The procedure is a rather significant one, it seems. Davis will have an entire winter to rest and rehab, but the team says he is not expected to be ready to begin spring camp with the rest of the roster in mid-February.

With the news, it seems the Reds will have one less early-season rotation option on hand. Presumably, though, Davis will work back up to strength at some point during the 2018 campaign. Regardless, adding some pitching depth likely remains the Reds’ top priority this winter.

Though the 24-year-old Davis was perhaps not a leading candidate to claim one of the five rotation spots, he surely would have had an opportunity to compete for a job during camp. And given the organization’s views on pitching usage — including a focus on multi-inning relievers — it certainly stands to reason that Davis would have had a chance of earning a significant role of some kind out of the gates.

Instead, the youngster will have a chance to iron out some pitching kinks even as he rebuilds strength in his hip. He struggled to an 8.63 ERA over his first 24 major-league frames in 2017. But Davis did show better at Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.43 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.

Notably, Davis will accrue MLB service while he’s on the 60-day DL since he ended the season on the big-league roster. Cincinnati will still control him for the foreseeable future, leaving plenty of time for the club to recoup some value from one of the four players received in the 2015 Aroldis Chapman trade. (Among the others, only Eric Jagielo remains with the organization; he has struggled in the upper minors and has yet to reach the bigs.)

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