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Brad Ausmus Interviews With Red Sox, Is Not Interested In Mets

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Since losing his job as the Tigers skipper  a few weeks back, Brad Ausmus has drawn quite a lot of interest from other organizations looking to replace outgoing managers. Ausmus interviewed today with the Red Sox, per Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald (via Twitter), but has pulled out of the running for the Mets’ job, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag.

Boston recently announced that it would move on from manager John Farrell, opening one of the game’s premium posts. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski hired Ausmus to his former job in Detroit, leading to immediate speculation about a possible match.

While some believe that others are more likely to earn the position — Alex Cora, in particular, has drawn plenty of attention — there’s obvious reason to suspect that Ausmus will be strongly considered. We have been tracking the early-stage developments in Boston’s search right here.

As for the Mets’ job, it’s interesting to hear that Ausmus has pulled out of the hunt before meeting with the organization or landing elsewhere. New York was said to have real interest in Ausmus, and certainly has a talent-laden roster in spite of an undeniably rough 2017 campaign. Of course, we don’t know just what considerations Ausmus is bringing to bear on the situation; as Heyman notes, he does have particular ties to the broader area surrounding Boston, though New York is the next closest MLB city to that particular region (and is even closer to Ausmus’s hometown of New Haven, Connecticut).

In any event, that leaves New York considering a variety of alternatives. One other notable former MLB skipper that won’t be under consideration, it seems, is former White Sox manager Robin Ventura. He “does not appear to have a strong interest” in the Mets’ job, per Heyman’s report, despite being mentioned as a possible candidate previously. The team’s other candidates (including Cora) are covered in this omnibus post on the search for a Terry Collins replacement.

Latest On Braves Investigation: “Unprecedented” Violations

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SUNDAY: Hart may not be innocent in this matter, Bill Shanks of the Macon Telegraph reports in a piece that’s worth reading in full. He “knew everything,” according to two scouts who spoke with Shanks, with one source saying that “(Hart) is just as guilty as Coppy. He helped create this mess by letting Coppy do what he wanted to do.” If true, Hart could be on his way out of Atlanta. His contract is set to expire after the World Series, when the league is likely to announce the results of an investigation that continues to see allegations pour in, per Shanks. MLB investigators have not spoken with Hart, Shanks writes, but they have interviewed Coppolella multiple times, including at his house, and Blakely, among other past and current Braves employees. The league could also talk with some of the Braves’ international scouts, Shanks adds. Even after his resignation, the Braves offered Coppolella a severance package – a move that “amazed” several scouts, Shanks relays – but he rejected it and has hired an attorney, which could suggest that lawsuits are forthcoming.

THURSDAY: The investigation into apparent international signing violations by the Braves has already claimed the jobs of GM John Coppolella and special assistant Gordon Blakely, but the investigation is still ongoing. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has a lengthy update (subscription required and recommended) on the matter, citing sources that tell him the team’s “violations are unprecedented in scope.”

Even as the Atlanta organization weighs its next steps, which will necessarily include a replacement for Coppolella and others, the league continues to dig. There’s no evidence to this point that president of baseball operations John Hart had knowledge or involvement in the transgressions, per Rosenthal, though he also hasn’t yet had his sit-down with investigators.

Whether or not the matter can be traced higher than Coppolella will obviously play a role in the ultimate punishment. That said, Rosenthal emphasizes that commissioner Rob Manfred could potentially also cite lack of “oversight” or “institutional control” over the now-deposed GM. Of course, it’s not as if Coppolella was just a rogue, lower-level employee; he was entrusted with significant decision-making authority and was the face of the front office to the public.

We heard earlier today that former Braves exec and current Royals GM Dayton Moore is not expected to depart for Atlanta — a possibility that many have cited as a potential out for the Braves, but one that might require the departure of Hart (as well as interest from Moore and permission by Kansas City). And based upon Rosenthal’s report, it seems the expectation is that Hart will continue to lead the charge in finding a new GM and overseeing a broader realignment of internal personnel.

Timelines on all of these threads — the league investigation, hiring of a GM, and assessment and actions on current Braves employees — are not yet known. There are a few weeks yet to go before the organization will begin making key offseason decisions, and the continued presence of Hart would presumably help with continuity. Still, it’s obviously imperative for the Braves that they receive and deal with the punishment that’s expected while lining things up for a hectic offseason to come.

Just what kinds of sanctions might be anticipated? Per Rosenthal, “a substantial fine, a loss of prospects and restrictions on the Braves’ participation in the international market” are all on the table. The devil here is in the details, of course, as that slate of possible demerits could either be relatively light or rather compelling, depending upon how extensively applied.

Broadly speaking, we still don’t know how all of this will turn out. And it’s far from clear that the Braves will be fully diverted from their course — which, the organization hoped, would soon reach a stage of contending. But it’s also not yet apparent just how president John Schuerholz or the corporate ownership at Liberty Media feel about things. And given the evident severity of the misdeeds committed, it certainly seems as if further internal turmoil can be anticipated before the team is ready again to return its sole focus to the on-field product.

Astros Acquire Juan Ramirez From Tigers To Complete Verlander Trade

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The Tigers have announced that they have sent young outfielder Juan Ramirez to the Astros. He becomes the player named to complete the late August blockbuster that sent righty Justin Verlander to Houston.

In exchange for that pair of players, as well as $16MM to cover some of Verlander’s remaining salary, the Tigers picked up a trio of prospects. Righty Franklin Perez, outfielder Daz Cameron, and catcher Jake Rogers were all added to the Detroit farm system.

Coincidentally, the announcement comes on the eve of Verlander’s scheduled ALCS start. The swap has paid dividends for Houston thus far, as the veteran starter has been outstanding. Of course, the Tigers are far better served by interesting young talent than by Verlander at this stage.

Ramirez, now 18, landed with the Detroit organization as an international free agent back in 2015. He landed a $185K bonus to sign out of his native Dominican Republic. Ramirez saw 46 games of action this year in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, turning in a .301/.385/.362 batting line with twenty walks against just 14 strikeouts. Despite the clear lack of power, that sort of approach holds obvious appeal.

Poll: How Much Will Eric Hosmer Earn In Free Agency?

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We’ve heard varying suggestions on just how much money soon-to-be free agent Eric Hosmer may be seeking, or may command, on the open market. That’ll all be sorted out when the negotiations start in earnest, but it’s fun to begin thinking about it now.

We’re now just a few weeks away now from the start of free agency, after all. First, the Royals will issue a qualifying offer — which will be at a $17.4MM rate. Hosmer, inevitably, will reject it, making him a free agent just weeks after his 28th birthday.

By now, Hosmer’s broad profile is well-known. The former third overall draft pick played in all 162 games this year, slashing a robust .318/.385/.498 and banging 25 home runs for the second consecutive season. That’s quite a bit more than he has produced previously, though Hosmer has had other solid seasons at the plate.

The question teams will be asking is whether there’s reason to believe that Hosmer can maintain that level of output. He rode a .351 batting average on balls in play in 2017, steadily outpacing his .316 career rate. And Hosmer has stayed within the same general K/BB range as ever, while continuing to put the ball on the ground over half the time. His hard-hit rate dropped below thirty percent for the first time since his debut season. When he did put the ball in the air, it went out of the park over twenty percent of the time for the second consecutive season, though it’s still fair to wonder whether that’s sustainable.

There are other factors, too, of course. Hosmer is no longer a double-digit annual stolen base threat and hasn’t always drawn strong reviews from baserunning metrics. Likewise, defensive metrics have never matched his generally positive reputation with the glove. In these areas, perhaps, Hosmer’s reputation outpaces what some of the numbers say — as a result, he hasn’t even yet cracked 10 fWAR over his career — although these are among the most controversial areas of sabermetric analysis.

Perhaps the most interesting concept, though, is the idea that Hosmer delivers value that outpaces his direct, on-the-field contributions. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star just published an interesting, though eminently arguable look at the evident position that super-agent Scott Boras intends to take on the matter this fall. Most intriguingly, Boras is said to be readying for an attempt at quantifying the ways in which Hosmer’s halo adds value by producing “a metric on intangibles.”

Mellinger cites an executive that thinks Boras will be looking for something like $20MM annually on a decade-long term. That’s quite an ask for a first baseman with the stat line of Hosmer’s — particularly in a day and age when a far superior hitter such as Edwin Encarnacion can only get $20MM over three years (albeit at a significantly older age) and with a number of other quality bats available in free agency.

Plenty of less-than-amazing batters have taken down big money over long terms, though typically such players were expected to deliver significant value in the field and on the bases. Jason Heyward, for example, got $184MM over eight years (plus two opt out opportunities). But Heyward was only 26 and was one of the game’s most valued defenders. Oh, and he also carried a lifetime 118 wRC+ to that point — clearly superior to Hosmer’s 111 wRC+ career mark, though the latter did have the bigger offensive platform season.

We aren’t going to get a sneak peek at Boras’s binder. But Mellinger lays out the broad case for Hosmer to out-earn his prior productivity:

But consider this. The Royals built their success, in large part, on intangibles. How much did they talk about clubhouse friendships, of bonds formed in the minor leagues, and of the joy they found in playing for each other?

For argument’s sake, let’s assume that was overstated, and that the parade happened because of athleticism and relief pitching more than anything else. But you can’t have watched the Royals’ rise without believing the other stuff had a part in it, too. The resiliency in the comebacks, the consistent performance in the biggest moments.

The Royals had a parade because of these things, the team welcoming in record attendance and interest.

Shouldn’t the players be rewarded, too?

Do you buy that? Even a little? How do you value it? And how do you value the stat line you expect Hosmer to put up? Rolling it all together, just how much will he be worth on the open market? (App users can click here for the poll.)

Angels Engaged In “Dialogue” With Justin Upton

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Angels outfielder Justin Upton is still weighing his opt-out decision, which promises to have widespread ramifications for the free-agent market. But as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, the club isn’t just sitting back and waiting to learn Upton’s fate.

Rather, Halos GM Billy Eppler says “there is dialogue going on” between the sides, citing a “positive conversation” with Upton and his agent, Larry Reynolds. He did not divulge details beyond that, quite understandably, so it’s not entirely clear just what was discussed. But it certainly seems as if the team is taking a proactive approach in the hopes that Upton will remain in an Angels uniform for 2018 and beyond.

Upton can choose to enter the open market — which he’d do free and clear of any qualifying-offer-related draft compensation — or elect instead to keep the four-year, $88.5MM guarantee remaining on his contract. The Angels are surely hoping to convince Upton to stay, though we don’t know anything else about the substance of the chatter. Beyond pitching Upton on the organization, it’s not known whether some additional inducement has or could be contemplated. In theory, though, the sides could completely re-work the contract, modify it in some way, or instead just continue their discussion into free agency.

Unusual circumstances surrounded the 30-year-old Upton’s move out west. Despite the presence of the opt-out provision, the club acquired him from the Tigers at the last possible moment — during the revocable trade period, on August 31st, the last day that teams could add outside players who’d be eligible for the postseason. Righty Grayson Long and a player to be named or cash went to Detroit in the deal, which included no assurances or future considerations regarding Upton’s remaining contract (or lack thereof).

Upton played well in Los Angeles, though the club fell shy of the postseason. Through 115 plate appearances, he slashed .245/.357/.531 with seven home runs — good for a 137 OPS+ that matched his output over his first 125 games on the year with the Tigers. Though Upton has had a few productivity dips in his eleven-year career, he carries an excellent .269/.348/.479 cumulative batting line through more than six thousand trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.

Youth is still mostly on Upton’s side. So are defensive metrics, which see him as a solid-to-excellent fielder in left. In the aggregate, it’s fairly easy to make out a case for Upton commanding a guarantee of $20MM or more annually for a five- or six-year term — as he received the last time he went to the open market. Now that the risks of playing out the season are in the past, he doesn’t have much reason to take a (hypothetical) offer from the Angels before testing the broader market, though perhaps he could try to gain a sweetener if he’s at all inclined to avoid the risks of free agency by declining the opt-out opportunity.

Antonetti, Chernoff, Francona Discuss Indians’ Offseason

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The Indians were obviously disappointed by the way things ended this year, as the club was knocked out with three-straight ALDS losses. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff, and skipper Terry Francona discussed the state of affairs heading into the offseason in a media session, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports.

Broadly, Antonetti suggested that he thinks the organization’s processes remain sound. He also cited strong performance by the roster in all three major facets of the game, while emphasizing a commitment to continue “look[ing] to get better.”

In terms of how much cash the Indians will have to work with, that evidently isn’t yet known. Unsurprisingly, though, there’s no inkling that the organization will do anything other than continue to try to win with the current core.

The group of organizational leaders discussed a variety of players and situations in the lengthy dialogue, which is well forth a full read at the above link. There’s ongoing interest in bringing back Carlos Santana, though Antonetti was non-committal on how that would progress. He did suggest that Santana could be considered for a qualifying offer, which has been set at $17.4MM. Who’s on first if he departs? Per Antonetti, the team has internal options, plus “there’s a litany of guys on the trade and free-agent market that we’ll explore.”

Jay Bruce proved a big presence for the club after his mid-season acquisition, but he’ll hit the open market as well. Chernoff expressed satisfaction with Bruce’s performance and noted there is some “mutual interest,” though it certainly seems that both sides will also explore their alternatives as well. Francona offered high praise for pending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw for his steadiness and constant readiness to enter the game. Given that, it seems possible to imagine a return, though that wasn’t addressed directly. Antonetti did say the team will “absolutely” consider re-signing Austin Jackson, who he credited for a strong bounceback year.

A few other players could present interesting questions. Somewhat notably, Antonetti said it was a “significant decision” whether to exercise Michael Brantley’s $11MM option. While he credited Brantley’s work ethic, he noted that “just getting healthy” remains a priority for the oft-injured outfielder. Likewise, there’s some uncertainty surrounding Jason Kipnis, who is under contract but doesn’t have a clear position. The versatility is a good thing, says Antonetti, but the organization also needs to consider “what opportunities are out there externally for us” in all regards before deciding how it will line up its roster. Yandy Diaz is another versatile asset, Chernoff notes, though Francona suggested he hopes to give the youngster a single position to focus on — indicating he may best be suited to the hot corner.

Also, Francona (who will, as expected, remain in his position) fielded some questions on the team’s postseason performance. In particular, he emphasized that there’s no reason to believe at present that Corey Kluber — who faltered in Game 5 and has dealt with arm slot difficulties — is anything other than healthy. Francona also noted that he has never before been so physically drained by a baseball season, saying that he intends to work on his own conditioning over the offseason. You’ll want to check out the link for more on that and other topics of discussion.

Mariners’ CEO Discusses Offseason Plans

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The Mariners are still dead-set on trying to contend in 2018, CEO John Stanton tells Larry Stone of the Seattle Times. While the club didn’t ride a wave of “magic” to the postseason this year, as Stanton said he expected, the team is still committed to expanding and relying upon its existing core.

Stanton, who has been running the organization since its sale was finalized last August, is obviously on board with the approach of GM Jerry Dipoto. The org’s top baseball decisionmaker recently chatted about things from his own perspective, emphasizing the strides the team has made in sustainability, even if it has yet to get over the hump and crack the postseason.

Notably, though, Seattle’s payroll does have some “room for growth,” according to Stanton. The M’s opened at $154MM this year and already have around $113MM committed for 2018 (including a pair of buyouts) with just under $30MM in potential arb payouts still to go.

While Dipoto said he did not expect many fireworks over the winter, it seems there’s at least a little space for some additions. What the team likely won’t do, however, is go wild for a major free agent.

Though Stanton says he likes the prior additions of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, that’s not how he prefers to build a roster. “Bluntly, I’d like to see us be strong in the playoffs for a decade,” said Stanton, “and I think we need to have the payroll dollars spent on players that can be with us for a long period of time.” 

Rather, any big contracts in the future could go to younger players that earn extensions, Stanton suggests. He cites the Jean Segura and Kyle Seager deals as models for the team to pursue in the future. Rather than bringing in such players once they have reached or perhaps moved past their prime, he’d rather make large but still more manageable commitments to players that have shown merit earlier in their careers.

Of course, that’s more or less the ideal for any organization. For the M’s, the question remains whether enough of the team’s recent acquisitions — both in terms of younger amateur talent and recent trades — will fully establish themselves as core pieces. If so, it’s possible to imagine this club taking further strides and eventually even challenging the ascendant Astros. But that’s far from a given.

MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

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Major League Baseball has set the qualifying offer for the upcoming offseason at $17.4MM, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link).

With the news, teams can now make full assessments of whether to issue qualifying offers to pending free agents. Offers are due five days after the World Series wraps up; players will then have ten days to weigh them.

Prior indications were that the figure would land somewhat higher, with expectations sitting in the range of $18.1MM. Last year, the QO sat at $17.2MM, so this represents only a marginal tick upward. Though the variations here are relatively small relative to the total value, every bit of money adds up for teams that are looking to map out a payroll plan.

When the QO system went into effect in the fall of 2012, the offer price — which is set by averaging the top 125 salaries leaguewide — was set at $13.3MM. For the first five years of its operation, the draft compensation system was relatively simple, but also seemingly operated to create quite a burden for mid-tier free agents. Tim gave an early an excellent account of the impact early in 2013; one year later, I took a lengthy look at the way the offer functioned in practice and explored some concepts for improving it. To that point, no player had accepted a qualifying offer. The market evolved from that point onward, as several players ultimately took the big, one-year salaries. But it remained clear that only a few players each year were disproportionately burdened by the system, which also did not seem to be benefiting smaller-market organizations.

With a new collective bargaining agreement came a new and more complicated rules regime that sought to temper some of those problems. Rather than the one-size-fits-all approach that once governed, several variables are now utilized to determine the draft compensation that results when a player declines a QO and then signs with another organization. You’ll want to review this thorough breakdown of the new system, via MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, for a full understanding of the procedures that apply for the coming offseason.

Shohei Otani Undergoes Ankle Surgery

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OCT. 12: The Kyodo News reports that Otani underwent surgery without complication and is expected to require a rehabilitation period of about three months. He’ll spend the next two to three weeks rehabbing in a medical facility before moving his rehab to the Fighters’ minor league facilities. Per the report, Otani is still expected to move from NPB to MLB via the posting system this offseason.

OCT. 11: Japanese star Shohei Otani is slated to undergo ankle surgery later this week, as the Japan Times was among those to report. It will address an injury that occurred this time last year, but has evidently lingered to some extent.

Otani’s outlook does not figure to be impacted too much by the procedure, though it’ll add another layer of potential complexity as he ponders a move to the majors. Per the report, and via the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, he’ll undergo “keyhole surgery to treat a posterior impingement.”

With around three weeks until the start of the offseason, teams are preparing for a fascinating pursuit of Otani. The two-way star, who evidently hopes not only to pitch but also to spend some time hitting at the game’s highest level, is widely regarded as the best talent in the world not currently with an affiliated organization. He’s also still subject to MLB’s international bonus rules, drastically limiting his earning power and potentially opening the door to a variety of suitors that might not otherwise be able to afford him.

[Related: Scouting Shohei Otani]

The biggest mystery remains just what Otani himself will prioritize if he does indeed follow through with the strong suggestion that he’ll ask to be posted. But he’ll also now have to show some heath information to teams, especially after a thigh injury significantly limited him this season. The plot will thicken considerably if Otani’s reps attempt to discuss a potential future extension scenario with organizations, both due to the possible health considerations and the grey area in the rules governing this sort of transaction.

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