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American League Injury Situations That May Impact The Trade Deadline

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2017 at 11:47am CDT

With the deadline approaching quickly, teams will be forced to make tough decisions. Health issues will play a large role in complicating those decisions. In some cases, when a player is known to be out for the entire season, acting decisively to find a replacement makes clear sense. But there are plenty of unresolved health issues throughout the game that will likely have significant impacts on a team’s approach to the deadline. Teams will be gathering information on internal players and on possible targets; here are a few players whose uncertain health status will be watched closely:

Carson Smith & Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: While Pablo Sandoval is nominally on the DL, and perhaps still factors into the team’s needs at third base, the real action is in the pitching staff. Smith could yet represent a significant pen arm, but it’s still unclear how much (if at all) he’ll contribute. And while Rodriguez has been excellent, and seems slated to return shortly from the DL, his recurring knee problems could become a major near-term concern.

Matt Andriese, Rays: There have been plenty of suggestions that the Rays could consider dealing a starter — particularly, pending free agent Alex Cobb — even if they’re in contention. But that’d be much harder to do if Andriese isn’t showing clear signs of returning to full health. Even if he is, the club could elect to stand pat, perhaps deciding to use the abundance of starting options to bolster the relief corps rather than spending young talent to get a new bullpen arm.

Greg Bird & Tyler Austin, Yankees: Perhaps the ship has sailed on the Yanks fully relying on Bird in the second half. After all, he struggled when he was available and is dealing with an ankle injury that does not appear to come with a straightforward solution. And it’s unclear just how much stock the Yankees would put in Austin even if he were at full health. Still, the injury signals coming from these two over the next few weeks could impact the Bronx Bombers’ deadline plans, particularly since the organization is clearly looking to avoid parting with significant prospects unless strictly necessary.

J.J. Hardy, Orioles: Chris Davis is on the shelf as well, though the team’s glut of corner options allows them to weather that storm fairly well. It’s another story with Hardy, who is still one to three weeks from even resuming baseball activities. The Orioles have been in a free fall since mid-May, but GM Dan Duquette was maintaining a buyer’s outlook as recently as late June, but more recent suggestions indicated that the team is presently on the fence. If the O’s perform well in the first two weeks coming out of the break, Hardy’s absence creates a potential area of need.

Danny Salazar, Indians: Shoulder issues have significantly limited the talented right-hander, who is working back towards the majors at present. If he can return to full health, Salazar could conceivably get back to providing quality innings from the rotation — or, at least, the bullpen. If not, the team’s possible pitching needs will be all the more clear.

Hector Santiago, Twins: With a somewhat mysterious and lingering back issue, the southpaw is a question mark for Minnesota in the second half. The team is shopping for young starters regardless, but the urgency of that effort — if not also the possibility of considering at least a modest rental investment — could hinge in part upon Santiago’s progress.

Nate Karns, Royals: Kansas City is reportedly looking to augment the back of its rotation, which is likely in no small part due to the fact that the return of Karns is looking less and less likely. The last update on Karns suggested that thoracic outlet surgery may very well be in his future. If he is indeed lost for the season, as lefty Matt Strahm recently was, the Royals’ need to snag a back-of-the-rotation rental becomes more acute.

Dallas Keuchel & Collin McHugh, Astros: The AL West crown is already nearly in hand for Houston, but that doesn’t mean the team is without its needs. The ’Stros have the luxury of looking ahead to the postseason, but still clearly would like to add to the top of the rotation. So long as Keuchel and McHugh are moving back toward the major league mound, the addition of a starter will remain classified as a strong want. But if either (particularly Keuchel) show any worrying signs, the organization will surely feel a much greater urgency to add an arm that can help drive the team through the postseason.

Matt Shoemaker, Angels: Obviously, Mike Trout is of even greater concern. But all indications are that he’s good to go beginning this Friday. For the Angels, deciding whether it’s worth adding to the roster at the deadline could hinge more upon the health of the rotation. Shoemaker will get checked out before hopefully beginning a throwing program within the week; whether he is progressing toward a return will be important to the Halos’ plans. (Honorable mention: Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, who are on longer-fuse rehab paths.)

Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners: It’s not clear at this point whether Seattle can expect much at all from the veteran down the stretch. Seattle is already without Drew Smyly for the year due to Tommy John surgery. If Iwakuma can’t begin to make his way back from shoulder problems before the deadline –and if the team can hang in the Wild Card hunt over the next two weeks — then pursuit of a starter would make all the more sense.

Keone Kela & Jake Diekman, Rangers: The Texas pen has produced plenty of hand-wringing this year. Ironically, perhaps, the first crack seemed to form with Kela’s stunning demotion to start the year, owing to behavioral issues. But he has been effective since making his way back, pitching his way into consideration for the closer’s role that has been vacated by Sam Dyson and Matt Bush. Now, however, Kela is dealing with shoulder soreness; his status could help dictate the team’s needs over the coming weeks. Diekman is even more of a question mark after surgery to treat ulcerative colits cost him the entire first half. He’s throwing from flat ground as of early July, and a return to the mound would obviously be a potential boon for the Texas relief corps. But, they also can’t fully know how much to expect from him in the second half given the unique nature of his medical status.

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Trade Market For First Basemen

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2017 at 9:23am CDT

It’s not immediately clear how many contenders will be pushing for upgrades at first base, with the Yankees perhaps representing the team with the clearest need. But other teams may still see an opportunity to add some pop with a platoon or bench option. Here are the first basemen that may be available over the next several weeks:

Rentals

Yonder Alonso, Athletics | $4MM in 2017

One of the breakout hitters of the current season, Alonso has exhibited fundamental changes in his approach that give cause to believe he’ll keep destroying baseballs down the stretch. While there has been some chatter about a possible extension with Oakland, the smart money remains on a trade. Teams that buy into Alonso as a middle-of-the-order bat with patience and power will no doubt see real value in pursuing him as an affordable rental player.

Lucas Duda, Mets | $7.25MM in 2017

An underappreciated offensive force, Duda has returned from an injury-riddled 2016 season as a potent left-handed bat. His batting average will never impress, but he draws plenty of walks and brings top-end power. Thus far in 2017, Duda has carried a career-best .286 isolated slugging mark and has swatted 14 long balls in 62 games. He’s not all that expensive, either.

John Jaso, Pirates | $4MM in 2017

Once quite an underappreciated hitter in his own right, Jaso hasn’t kept up his productivity since landing in Pittsburgh. He’s now a solid-average hitter on the whole, and that has held true even as he has swapped out some of his legendary plate discipline for power this year. Though Jaso has seven dingers in 203 plate appearances, putting him on pace to easily set a career high, he has uncharacteristically posted a 46:20 K/BB ratio and is reaching base at only a .320 clip. While he has mostly played the outfield this year, Jaso would most likely be targeted as a bench bat who could factor into the mix at first.

Controlled Through 2018

Matt Adams, Braves | $2.8MM in 2017; arb-eligible in 2018

We haven’t seen a large enough sample of Freddie Freeman at third base to know how long that experiment will continue. But the Atlanta front office won’t just be measuring the star’s capacity for the hot corner; it’ll also be weighing Adams’s trade value. With another year of control remaining, the 28-year-old could command a somewhat higher price than some of the pure rental options. Adams has produced at a .292/.339/.608 clip, with 13 homers, in his 186 plate appearances in a Braves uniform.

Mike Napoli, Rangers | $6MM in 2017; $11MM club option ($2.5MM buyout) in 2018

The 35-year-old isn’t hitting well at all in his latest run with the Rangers. Despite a healthy tally of 18 home runs, Napoli carries a .194/.273/.437 batting line over 283 trips to the plate. That’ll surely improve as his .215 BABIP moves north, but if the Rangers end up turning into a seller, Napoli would likely end up being moved mostly for some cost savings. (Note: I thought about including Joey Gallo on this list, but he seems lined up to step in for Napoli in 2018.)

Victor Martinez, Tigers | $18MM in 2017; $18MM in 2018

He’s obviously not really an option to play first base, but Martinez gets consideration here since he doesn’t fit anywhere else. At 38 years of age, VMart has stumbled to a .253/.322/.366 slash with just six long balls in his 286 trips to the plate. He is still producing a 40.0% hard-hit rate, so perhaps there’s hope of  a turnaround yet, but the contract is obviously well under water.

Longer-Term Assets

Jose Abreu, White Sox | $10.825MM in 2017; arb-eligible in 2018-19

Though he finished strong last year, Abreu faced some questions entering his age-30 campaign. He has answered with a .299/.349/.522 batting line and 16 long balls over 375 plate appearances. While Abreu probably won’t ever be quite the force he was in his debut campaign, back in 2014, he looks like a good bet to continue producing high-end offensive numbers through the end of his contract. The White Sox haven’t seemed as inclined to deal Abreu as other stars, but it’s hard to imagine the organization wouldn’t be amenable to trading him in the right circumstances.

Justin Smoak, Blue Jays | $4.125MM in 2017; $4.125MM in 2018; $6MM club option ($250K buyout) in 2019

The former top prospect has turned his extension from a perceived head-scratcher to a huge win for Toronto. Smoak has already set a personal high with 23 home runs and made his first All-Star appearance. Even if the Jays remain mired in the AL East cellar, though, it’ll be hard for them to part with a player who now looks like a solid bet to provide good value on an affordable contract over the next several seasons.

Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays | $10MM in 2017; $11MM in 2018; $12MM in 2019

Already 34 years of age, and hardly a bargain, Morales doesn’t look like a terribly appealing trade candidate. He’s hitting at an unimpressive .252/.300/.454 rate since arriving in Toronto. While it’s reasonable to hope for improvement, it’d also be hard for rival organizations to stake such a big commitment on an aging player — particularly given the alternatives.

Justin Bour, Marlins | First-time arb-eligible in 2018

Entering the year, Bour had established himself as a surprisingly effective slugger — though he was limited both by an inability to play anywhere but first and questions about his abilities against left-handed pitching. He has responded with a huge arbitration platform season in which he has not only continued to pummel right-handers, but owns a .333/.412/.667 slash in 68 plate appearances without the platoon advantage.

Tommy Joseph, Phillies | First-time arb-eligible in 2020

With Rhys Hoskins clamoring for a promotion, it’s possible to imagine the Phillies shopping Joseph. But will there be much demand? He’s hitting at a solid .252/.313/.466 rate on the year, but that’s not quite the level he showed last year and surely not enough to warrant a regular job on a first-division club. As a righty bat that can only play at first base, Joseph is a limited player.

C.J. Cron, Angels | First-time arb-eligible in 2018

Much the same is true of Cron, who has stumbled badly this year after putting up slightly above-average offensive numbers over the prior three seasons. He’s back in the majors after a stint at Triple-A, but could be sent elsewhere if improvements are not forthcoming.

Brandon Belt, Giants | $2.8MM in 2017; $64MM from 2018-21

A polished and extremely steady hitter who only just turned 29, Belt looks like a solid asset for San Francisco. He’s not exactly cheap, but the future commitment is more than fair for a still-youthful player who owns a lifetime 127 OPS+. While the Giants will likely at least consider proposals, there’s little chance they could reliably replace his production without spending more in the upcoming offseason.

Joey Votto, Reds | $22MM in 2017; $157MM from 2018-23 (including $7MM buyout on 2024 club option)

Still an awesome hitter, Votto has full no-trade rights and doesn’t appear to be on the market this summer. But nothing is bolted to the floors in Cincinnati, and the contract is perhaps aging better than has been feared, so he has to be mentioned.

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers | $28MM in 2017; $192MM from 2018-23 (including $8MM buyout on 2024 vesting club option)

Cabrera is currently in the midst of his worst season since his debut campaign. And he’s 34 … and is owed gobs of cash over the next six years. It’s far too soon to count out a full-blown turnaround at the plate from the outstanding slugger, but this is a tough contract to move at present. Cabrera also controls his own destiny and can veto any deal.

Currently in the Minors

Pedro Alvarez, Orioles | Minor-league contract

The 30-year-old has attempted a move to the outfield at Triple-A. It’s doubtful that a contender will play him on the grass late in 2017, though perhaps Alvarez could end up functioning as a power source off the bench. He has not hit particularly well at Norfolk this year, but has a long history of solidly above-average output with excellent power against right-handed pitching.

Byung Ho Park, Twins | $2.75MM in 2017; $6.5MM through 2019 (including $500K buyout of 2020 club option)

Things just aren’t going well for the former KBO star. He showed plenty of pop, but also big holes, in his MLB debut last year, leading to a demotion. While he no doubt hoped to resolve some of the lingering on-base issues, it has all fallen apart thus far in 2017. Park is hitting just .243/.301/.391 with four home runs in his 249 plate appearances in the highest level of the minors.

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2017 Trade Market MLBTR Originals

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Latest On Marlins’ Sale Talks

By Jeff Todd | July 11, 2017 at 11:20pm CDT

11:20pm: Mas “seems like a surefire favorite,” writes Heyman, though he notes that the finalization of a deal may yet take as many as two weeks. Heyman agrees with the $1.17 billion figure that Ozanian reported yesterday. Mas’ involvement in the Miami community is seen as a big plus by the league, Heyman writes, and he also notes that Jeter’s group consists mostly of investors that are committing money in $10-50MM increments. Mas, on the other hand, has a net worth of more than $2 billion and has a “couple other investors,” Heyman writes, which obviously makes the transaction less complicated.

Jeter was, at one point, offered a spot in Mas’ ownership group, according to Heyman. He preferred to continue his own efforts due to his desire to be the ownership group’s control person.

10:05pm: Manfred said today that three bids are all comparable in terms of price, as Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel writes. With final negotiations playing out, Loria will soon have to make a decision on which bid to accept. Loria refused to offer much of a comment when asked by reporters today, Healey adds. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick did note that Loria firmly denied that there’s any deal in place.

JULY 11, 10:20am: Perhaps it’s too soon to count out the group led by Romney and Wayne Rothbaum. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets that its members are still expressing confidence in landing the club. Indeed, it has even added another local celebrity to its slate of investors in hopes of boosting the bid (thus making for another odd twist in this particular saga). Per Jackson, Armando Christian Perez — once the Marlins’ DJ and now famous by his stage name, Pitbull — is now a part of the bidding group (along with former Jeter compatriot Jeb Bush, Hall of Fame hurler Tom Glavine, recently fired D-Backs GM Dave Stewart and others).

JULY 10: With all eyes on Marlins Park as it hosts this year’s All-Star Game festivities, the ongoing efforts to find a buyer for the Miami organization appear to be reaching a boiling point. Though a deal obviously wasn’t struck before the mid-summer classic, as had been hoped, commissioner Rob Manfred suggested today that the process will likely come to a conclusion in the near-term.

Notably, per Manfred, that uncertainty does not mean that the league will be looking at any deadline activities. “They don’t need my permission to make player moves,” the commissioner said. While sale considerations could still influence the decisionmaking, then, it’s notable that other organizations won’t need to worry about the league’s position in attempting to structure deals with the Marlins.

Despite the apparent momentum, it’s still uncertain just how the bidding will turn out. Multiple reports disagree, in fact, as to which direction the winds are blowing. Since the information currently occupying the newswire can best be described as deeply conflicting, we’ll run through the latest chatter to get a sense of the state of play.

Kicking things off today was a report from Mike Ozanian of Forbes, in which he said an agreement is in place between current owner Jeffrey Loria and Miami billionaire Jorge Mas. Per Ozanian, the deal will be finalized at a $1.17B price tag — unless “an unusual twist” scuttles things.

Both the current ownership group and the would-be buyer, though, told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald that no agreement was in place. Such a public stance may not be fully incompatible with that report, but others cast more doubt. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, for example, hears that Mas is in the lead — but also that he has yet to secure a deal with Loria.

In the face of all that, then, came a New York Post report indicating that Mas likely won’t land the Fish. Instead, per Josh Krosman, Ken Davidoff, and Claire Atkinson, it’s the Derek Jeter-led bidding group (which now also includes Michael Jordan) that seems to be “closing in on a deal” with Loria. The Post pegs the price at $1.2B and suggests the entire affair will be finished by “next week.”

If it’s possible to draw any conclusions at this point, it seems that the bidding is now a two-horse race — with the Tagg Romney-led group now falling largely out of the picture. Beyond that, however, there’s a total lack of certainty even as the organization weighs potential trade scenarios for large portions of its MLB roster.

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Manfred & Clark On Int’l FA, Homers, 10-Day DL, Expansion, Rays, A’s

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | July 11, 2017 at 4:18pm CDT

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and MLBPA chief Tony Clark each chatted with the media today in advance of tonight’s All-Star Game. Here are a few highlights from their comments:

  • While the new CBA instituted some rather significant changes to the international signing system, there remain quite a few ad hoc rules in place — with variation, in particular, based on a player’s country of origin. Manfred suggested a more comprehensive change, with the intent of establishing one uniform system for acquiring foreign professional talent, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe notes (Twitter links). Clark expressed general agreement with that concept, which suggests that the league and Union will continue working to create one standardized means of acquiring talent from foreign professional leagues in Japan, Korea, Cuba and others.
  • The leaguewide power surge has been the source of much discussion of late, with Manfred suggesting there has been no change to the game ball that would explain it. In his most recent comments, he suggested that the current ball falls within rather wide established standards, while also hinting he’s not exactly displeased to see more balls leaving the yard. A tighter variance in testing may be one possible solution, Manfred said (and Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal tweets). But he also noted that bats could be as much of a cause as the baseballs and suggested that MLB will begin testing bats as well, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. As for the MLBPA, Clark says “health and safety” considerations — presumably, recent complaints over blisters feature among them — have led the union to engage the league on the topic, Shaikin tweets.
  • Changes in home run propensity and the run-scoring environment can impact the player market in subtle ways; so, too, does the change from a fifteen to a ten-day minimum DL stint. Of course, that latter modification also bears more directly on roster movement, since it makes it easier for teams to give rest to slightly injured or worn down players. Manfred suggested that some organizations may have gone too far already with aggressive DL placements, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. “I don’t like some of the activity in terms of what’s going on with the 10-day DL,” said Manfred. That did not seem to be a concern shared by Clark, who indicated he had not received complaints from the players about the way the 10-day DL has functioned.
  • Manfred also touched upon a few open stadium issues. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “I continue to believe Tampa (Bay) is a viable major-league market, and I also believe it may be better than the alternatives than we have out there,” Manfred said of the Rays and their efforts to move into a newly constructed, more modern facility. “And I am hopeful we get to a resolution.” The commissioner did concede that eventually there may come a point where alternatives must be considered but stressed that such a point is not close at hand. Topkin adds that based on Manfred’s comments about expansion/relocation on Monday, the primary alternatives are believed to be Montreal, Charlotte and Mexico City (or elsewhere in Mexico).
  • Regarding the ongoing stadium issues for the cross-country Athletics, Manfred again offered hope that the team would not need to relocate (via MLB.com’s Mark Newman). Newly hired A’s president Dave Kaval, who was brought in largely to oversee the stadium process, has said recently that the team hopes to have a proposal for the site of a new facility this year, and Manfred is heartened by the efforts being put forth. “I think the renewed interest that [managing partner] John Fisher has shown in finding a new site in Oakland is positive,” said Manfred. “Baseball has had a long history of commitment to its communities. We have been the sport least likely to relocate. We’d like to have Oakland be a success. I think the identification of a single site in Oakland will be a step forward in that stadium process.”
  • Newman also notes that Manfred continues to have interest in expanding the league, though the commissioner said expansion will not become a prominent focus until the stadium issues for both the Rays and A’s are resolved. “I know the Mayor of Montreal has been very vocal about bringing baseball back to Montreal,” said Manfred. “Charlotte’s a possibility. And I’d like to think that Mexico City or some other place in Mexico would be a possibility.”
  • Finally, Clark addressed the long-simmering issue of substandard wages for minor-league players. Though the MLBPA does not technically represent non-40-man players, almost all of its members spent at least some time playing in the minors without a 40-man spot. Still, Clark largely demurred when asked about the union’s role in the minimum-wage dispute between minor leaguers and MLB organizations. “We’ve done what we can where we can,” Clark said (via Shaikin, on Twitter).
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Twins Showing Interest In Controllable Starters

By Jeff Todd | July 11, 2017 at 1:33pm CDT

The Twins are “checking in” on a few starting pitchers around the game, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Minnesota is seemingly limiting its interest to controllable arms at this point.

That’s not terribly surprising to hear. After all, the Twins are still treading water in the AL Central and AL Wild Card races. And GM Thad Levine said recently that the organization “would be very open to spending aggressively on assets that we could use to propel our team forward this year and for years to come.”

As noted in that above-linked post, the Twins have an obvious need — both now and in the near future — for reliable starting pitching. While there’s little reason to think that the team would part with significant future talent just for an immediate upgrade, it makes sense that the club would value the chance at contending this year while also considering arms that could bolster the roster for a few more seasons to come.

Rosenthal notes that Jose Quintana of the White Sox and Sonny Gray of the Athletics are two pitchers who’d likely appear on Minnesota’s list of possible targets, though it’s not clear whether the Twins have eyes for either in particular. He also suggests Dan Straily of the Marlins as an option, though again there’s still no indication that he’s specifically on the radar of Levine and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey.

Of course, those sorts of pitchers — Quintana and Gray, in particular — figure to draw interest from many other organizations. Those two have done so for quite some time, in fact, with the continued demand perhaps also representing a big reason that their respective organizations have felt comfortable waiting to deal them.

At this stage, there’s still a lack of clarity as to how the market will develop. Quintana and Gray might spur bidding wars; certain contenders could pivot to more affordable rental pieces (or even relievers); and/or we could see other long-term rotation assets (such as Julio Teheran or Gerrit Cole, among many other possibilities) reach the market to meet the demand. The level of involvement of teams such as the Twins will very likely play a role in dictating those developments, though the question remains whether Minnesota will press to get a deal done for a new starter.

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Chicago White Sox Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins Oakland Athletics Dan Straily Derek Falvey Jose Quintana Sonny Gray Thad Levine

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Injury Notes: Otani, Nunez, Bumgarner, Harvey

By Jeff Todd | July 11, 2017 at 12:40pm CDT

Japanese star Shohei Otani is slated to pitch for the first time this year, per a report from the Japan Times. That’ll come in Japan’s NPB, not the majors, but nevertheless has importance on the other side of the globe. As Otani ponders a move to the big leagues after the current season, MLB clubs will be watching closely. He has been held out of pitching duties due to ankle and thigh injuries; Nippon Ham Fighters skipper Hideki Kuriyama says he’ll bring back Otani slowly as he “build[s] up his pitch counts.”

Here’s more on some health situations from around the game:

  • It seems that the Giants will welcome back trade candidate Eduardo Nunez heading out of the break. He’s slated to start a brief rehab assignment tomorrow, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter; the organization has already optioned outfielder Mac Williamson to open a roster spot, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. While it remains to be seen how far San Francisco will go in dealing away veterans, Nunez is a pending free agent who would seem better utilized by a 2017 contender.
  • Also nearing a return to the Giants is ace southpaw Madison Bumgarner. He just turned in six strong innings at the High-A level in what appears to be his final rehab start, as Martin Gallegos of the Bay Area News Group writes. It seems that Bumgarner will make it back after about a three-month layoff following a shoulder injury suffered in a dirtbike accident earlier this season. While he won’t factor directly in the trade deadline, Bumgarner’s health is an important factor in San Francisco’s long-term roster and budgeting. There have long been suggestions of possible talks on a new extension for the postseason hero, and those could take place later this year if Bumgarner shows he’s healthy.
  • The Mets are set to begin welcoming back some dearly missed players, as Marc Carig of Newsday reports. That includes star righty Noah Syndergaard, who is going to pick up a ball again in about two weeks, and closer Jeurys Familia, who’ll do so over the All-Star break. It also includes former star righty Matt Harvey, whose future remains murky. Interesting, pitching coach Dan Warthen says that doctors found significant weakness in Harvey’s right shoulder muscles. The current focus is on “building that back up,” says Warthen, though at present it’s unclear just when Harvey might be expected back.

 

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Trade Market For Third Basemen

By Jeff Todd | July 11, 2017 at 11:22am CDT

The hot corner is shaping up tot be an area of interest, with the Red Sox clearly in need of an upgrade and clubs like the Yankees and Cardinals perhaps weighing their options as well. As buyers scan the market for available players, here are some of the names they’ll likely consider:

Rentals

Todd Frazier, White Sox | $12MM in 2017

Long the most obviously available hot corner rental, Frazier has turned it on at the plate over the past two months. He can still handle the position and has been a more balanced hitter (.335 OBP; .444 SLG; 16 home runs; 67:47 K/BB) after selling out for power over the prior two campaigns.

Eduardo Nunez, Giants | $4.2MM in 2017 

The 30-year-old has continued to do the things that made him a rather appealing trade target last summer, with approximately average offensive work combined with solid glovework and excellent baserunning. Nunez is not a particularly overwhelming option as a regular at third, but would make for a nice platoon mate or a utility piece (he can also play short). He’ll be returning from a hamstring injury after the All-Star break, but has a few weeks to show he’s at full health.

Howie Kendrick, Phillies | $10MM in 2017

Soon to turn 34, Kendrick has hit as well as ever this year, though his .349/.403/.476 slash line has undoubtedly been driven by a .433 BABIP. Even when that falls to his lofty career levels, the veteran ought to represent a quality hitter who can play the outfield, second, or perhaps third. Of course, this particular post is dedicated to the hot corner, where Kendrick has spent must 132 major league innings. Though he could be added as a utility player, it’s not clear whether teams will see him as a semi-regular at third.

Yunel Escobar, Angels | $7MM in 2017

It seems unlikely that the Halos will end up selling, but Escobar would be among the team’s clearest trade candidates if they do. He’s continuing to post solidly above-average offensive numbers with a high-contact, high-average, low-power approach at the plate. But Escobar is a poor fielder and baserunner, so he’s more a plug-in option than a player who’d be targeted heavily even if he is shopped.

Controlled Through 2018

Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays | $17MM in 2017; arb-eligible in 2018

Injuries and age limit the market for Donaldson somewhat, but that’s less of a concern given that his contract has just one year remaining. While he’s not quite playing at his usual superstar rate in 2017 — he’s hitting a merely excellent .261/.383/.484 and isn’t drawing stellar ratings with the glove — Donaldson would draw huge interest. But the Jays have shown little inclination even to consider parting with him, even with the club mired in the AL East basement.

Manny Machado, Orioles | $11.5MM in 2017; arb-eligible in 2018

Similarly, the 25-year-old Machado isn’t playing to his typical standards. In his case, though, there’s even less reason for concern. Machado still profiles as an all-world defender and has maintained his power and pate discipline. He’s making more contact than ever before, though he has traded in a few line drives for grounders. In all likelihood, the real culprit behind his .230/.296/.445 slash is likely a .239 BABIP that’ll surely head northward. Again, though, there’s no indication yet that the O’s will part with their best player.

Jed Lowrie, Athletics | $6.5MM in 2017; $6MM club option ($1MM buyout) in 2018

The 33-year-old switch-hitter is a prime deadline candidate who could step in at second or third — while perhaps still lining up at short in a pinch. Now healthy, Lowrie is also back on track at the plate (.279/.346/.458, 9 home runs). His injury profile isn’t the greatest, which perhaps reduces the value of the affordable option year, though that still looks to be an appealing element of his trade stock.

Asdrubal Cabrera, Mets | $8.25MM in 2017; $8.5MM club option ($2MM buyout) in 2018

Cabrera is in a generally similar situation to Lowrie, but he’s a bit more expensive and hasn’t hit quite as well this year. Plus, the Mets are likely still somewhat interested in picking up his option. Cabrera has spent plenty of time at short but probably ought to be shifted to second or third at this point. He’s also drawing some eye-opening baserunning ratings this year, and not in a good way.

Longer-Term Assets

Yangervis Solarte, Padres | $2.5MM in 2017; $4MM in 2018; 2019-20 club options

A solid hitter and versatile defender on an affordable deal, Solarte looks to be a useful trade chip. He’ll need to return from an oblique strain first, though. Ultimately, Solarte looks to represent a somewhat younger and less expensive version of some of the players listed above. Whether contenders will pay a premium for that kind of asset, though, remains unclear.

Martin Prado, Marlins | $11.5MM in 2017; $13.5MM in 2018; $15MM in 2019

Miami will surely need to hold onto some of the cash it still owes Prado, who has not been at peak form in his age-33 season. While there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll bounce back from an injury-filled first half, Prado profiles not as a star but as a slightly above-average hitter and defender. He is held in high regard around the game and has already drawn interest, but he doesn’t seem worth the significant contract premium he is owed over some of the other players covered in this post.

Josh Harrison, Pirates | $7.5MM in 2017; $10MM in 2018; 2019-20 club options

The Bucs reportedly dabbled in some talks involving Harrison over the winter, but ultimately held onto him. He has responded with a bounceback 2017 season that has his contract again looking appealing. Through 368 plate appearances, Harrison is slashing .280/.361/.436 with ten home runs and ten steals — along with typically strong marks for his work on the bases and in the field. A dynamic athlete, Harrison would be quite an interesting target, though it’s now less than clear that Pittsburgh has real interest in moving him.

Luis Valbuena, Angels | $6.5MM in 2017; $8MM in 2018; $8.5MM mutual option ($500K buyout) in 2019

Things haven’t gone as hoped for Valbuena since he signed on with the Halos. At the time of the deal, he seemed a nice buy-low piece who was available for less because he lost half of the prior campaign due to injury. But the health woes have continued and Valbuena has limped to a .185/.267/.318 batting line thus far. As noted above, the Angels don’t really profile as sellers. And Valbuena isn’t really doing much to suggest he’d be a target for most contenders. But it’s still possible to imagine a trade, particularly if the Angels saw an opportunity to add a similarly expensive pitcher.

Eugenio Suarez, Reds | First-time arb-eligible in 2018

Thus far in 2017, Suarez is showing a big jump in his walk rate (to 12.4%) and continuing to grow in the power department (.183 ISO; 12 home runs). He rates well at third and can also play up the middle in the infield. While the Reds will no doubt be willing to listen, perhaps there’s also not much urgency to finding a taker for Suarez, particularly with the team’s shortstop position likely to come open sooner than later.

Nick Castellanos, Tigers | $3MM in 2017; arb-eligible in 2018-19

It’s still hard to know just what to make of the former top prospect, who’s still just 25 and put up a strong 2016 season. He’s now back to hitting at about the league average, making his BABIP-fueled effort from a year ago seem like something of an outlier. The value is tied up in the bat, and it just hasn’t been that great. That’s not to say other organizations wouldn’t love to take a shot on his talent, but will they pay enough to make that worthwhile for Detroit?

Maikel Franco, Phillies | First-time arb-eligible (Super Two) in 2018

Generally viewed as a core piece for the Phils, Franco has increasingly been mentioned as a possible trade candidate. While he’s not going to be seen as an immediate option for contenders and may not be dealt at this low point of his value, it seems that Philadelphia is very much open to considering offers involving the highly talented youngster. Franco is off to a miserable start at the plate, though he has made strides in his plate discipline and carries a personal-best 13.5% strikeout rate. The power is lagging and Franco is struggling to square up baseballs, though surely his .215 BABIP also reflects some poor fortune. Somewhat like Castellanos, Franco could conceivably factor into some creative trade scenarios over the next few weeks.

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2017 Trade Market MLBTR Originals

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Coco Crisp Reportedly Takes High School Coaching Job

By Jeff Todd | July 11, 2017 at 8:43am CDT

Veteran outfielder Coco Crisp has evidently decided upon a new career path. He has signed on to be the head coach at Shadow Hills High School in Indio, California, according to a report from Blake Arthur and Jesus Reyes of KESQ News.

The high school’s athletic director confirmed that an agreement is in place to bring aboard Crisp to run the school’s baseball program. Crisp’s connection to the school isn’t immediately apparent, but the report does note that the Los Angeles native has lived in the area — in the desert east of L.A. — for quite some time.

Last we checked in, Crisp was still holding out hope of finding a big league job for the current season. Clearly, that had not occurred. While there has yet to be any formal announcement regarding his playing future, the 37-year-old seems to be on the way to hanging up his spikes for good.

Crisp turned in an underwhelming 2016 season, slashing .231/.302/.397 over 498 plate appearances. He hit 13 home runs but stole just ten bags (well below his typical output), while defensive metrics graded him an acceptable performer in left but panned his glovework in center.

Still, Crisp was valued highly enough for the Indians to acquire and rely upon him rather heavily in the postseason. In 32 total plate appearances from the ALDS through the World Series, Crisp recorded seven hits (four for extra bases) and as many walks as strikeouts (three apiece).

Looking more broadly at Crisp’s 15-year career, he delivered plenty of value to the teams that employed him. He racked up 29.1 rWAR and 30.0 fWAR in over 1,500 games played, representing an excellent output for the $70MM+ salary he took home over that span. Crisp enjoyed notable runs with the Athletics, Indians, and Red Sox while also spending a somewhat less memorable year with the Royals back in 2009.

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Uncategorized Coco Crisp

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Dee Gordon Drawing Interest From Angels, Blue Jays, Royals

By Jeff Todd | July 10, 2017 at 9:26pm CDT

At least three teams have expressed some interest in Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. The Angels, Blue Jays, and Royals have each “at least mentioned” the infielder as a possible deadline target, per Heyman.

Gordon, 29, hasn’t continued the form he showed in 2015, his first season with Miami. He slashed a career-best .333/.359/.418 — helped along by a .383 batting average on balls in play — and swiped 58 bags that year. With quality glovework mixed in, Gordon was valued at 4.7 fWAR and earned himself a five-year, $50MM extension.

He has had a somewhat redemptive 2017 season, at least, after his second season with the Marlins was marred by a PED suspension and significant performance decline. In his 375 plate appearances this year, Gordon owns a .295/.342/.358 batting line and has already stolen 32 bases.

While there isn’t immense need at second base around the game, Gordon would be a future asset for any acquiring team. And with his immense speed and highly rated glovework, he’d also be a particularly useful postseason roster piece.

All said, Gordon’s contract seems fairly reasonable, though it’s certainly not the bargain the Marlins once hoped it would be. The deal promises Gordon $7.5MM this year and $38MM over the three seasons to come — which includes a $1MM buyout on a $14MM option for 2021. (That option would be guaranteed if Gordon reaches 600 plate appearances in 2020 or 1,200 over that and the prior season.)

It’s not yet clear just what kinds of trade scenarios might entice the Marlins. Presumably, though, the focus would be on shedding as much of the financial commitment as possible. It’s not difficult to see the reason for interest from the teams that Heyman lists, as the Halos, Jays, and Royals have each had their share of uncertainty at second base. But it’s an open question whether those or any other teams would really be willing to take on most or all of Gordon’s contract.

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Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins Toronto Blue Jays Dee Gordon

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Minor MLB Transactions: 7/10/17

By Jeff Todd | July 10, 2017 at 7:58pm CDT

Here are the latest minor moves from around the game:

  • The Yankees have released first baseman Chris Carter, per the MLB.com transactions page. While Carter accepted one outright assignment from the club previously, with the Yankees calling him back up shortly thereafter, he’ll return to free agency this time around. Despite his struggles — a .201/.284/.370 slash over 208 plate appearances on the season — there ought to be a fair bit of interest in the 30-year-old. After all, Carter mashed 41 long balls last year and carried a .221/.318/.474 batting line over the five prior seasons. For organizations interested in getting ahold of some righty pop off the bench, Carter ought to hold appeal — particularly since the Yankees are paying his $3.5MM salary.
  • The Dodgers have acquired outfielder Todd Cunningham from the Cardinals, also per the transactions page. Cunningham, a 28-year-old switch-hitter, has seen brief MLB action in three seasons but has spent the bulk of his time at Triple-A in recent years. Since joining the Cards as a minor-league deal over the winter, he has slashed .270/.401/.400 with as many walks as strikeouts (37 apiece) over 286 plate appearances at Triple-A Memphis.
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