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Manny Ramirez Pursuing Taiwan Comeback

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May 1: Ramirez’s agent, Hector Zepeda Jr., tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that since Ramirez made his interest in a comeback known, he’s already heard from one CPBL team. That club expressed interest but indicated that a signing wasn’t likely until midseason.

April 29: Longtime MLB star Manny Ramirez is well past his prime, but he may yet have another act. He tells Mark Buckton of the Taiwan Times that he’s hoping to appear again in the Chinese Professional Baseball League.

“My goal for 2020, is to find a roster spot in the CPBL,” Ramirez says. “I have been itching to get back in the batter’s box and be able to compete again.”

The CPBL is, of course, the only place in the world to catch a ballgame at the moment. Ramirez, who turns 48 at the end of May, previously starred briefly in Taiwan’s five-team league back in 2013.

The idea this time around, per Ramirez, is to function “as a player-coach.” That’s the same angle he took when he appeared at Triple-A with the Cubs in 2014. Ramirez also pursued an opportunity in Japan in 2017, but nothing came of it.

Why Taiwan? Ramirez says he has also considered the indie ball circuit — which isn’t active right now and may not be in 2020 — but prefers to cross the Pacific. “I have had a few offers for teams in the Atlantic League, but am more in favor of experiencing Taiwan and their delicious food,” he explains.

Ramirez produced and occasionally puzzled over 19 memorable MLB seasons, the last of which was a very brief 2011 showing. He launched 555 total long balls and compiled a ridiculous lifetime .312/.411/.585 batting line, making him one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game — albeit one who tarnished his career with multiple PED violations.

You’ll want to check out the interview for more on what Ramirez has been up to of late. The ever-interesting and exceptionally talented slugger speaks of helping quietly in the community and focusing on his family and Christian faith.

The Phillies’ Upside Scenario

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For a big-budget team that has in recent years added high-profile players like Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and Jake Arrieta, the Phillies sure haven’t received a lot of attention of late. Perhaps it’s the fact that the rest of the NL East has been engaged in more interesting pursuits.

Let’s not overlook the challenges facing the Philadelphia organization in 2020 and beyond. The Nationals just won a World Series and still have elite talent. The Braves have taken the past two division titles and remain loaded. The Mets took a hit with the loss of Noah Syndergaard, but still have an imposing rotation and and an underappreciated amount of upside on the position-player side as well. And the Marlins? Well, we tend to overlook them, but maybe it’s time we recognize that the club’s young pitching is fairly interesting. They even spent some cash to bring in some veterans this offseason. Perhaps a renaissance isn’t far off.

Could the Phillies’ long-awaited return to the top of the heap stall out? There’s a real risk of it. Projection systems mostly seem to view the current roster as a generally average one, hardly a surefire contender. And the farm system isn’t exactly bursting with top-shelf youngsters just awaiting their chance in the majors. It’s necessary to acknowledge that the picture may never quite come all the way together as president Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak envisioned. But let’s also consider the realistic upside in the group of players they’ve assembled.

Outfield

Bryce Harper: It has been a few years, but he’s only 27 and is one of only a few players who has proven capable of producing a ~10 WAR season.

Andrew McCutchen: Cutch was nearly that good at his peak, too, though it’s much further in the past. But we shouldn’t go too far in the other direction. McCutchen has been a high-quality everyday player even since moving out of superstar status. Added rest for his knee probably helps.

Adam Haseley/Roman Quinn/Jay Bruce: I’m not going to tell you I’m in love with this group, but you can squint and see how it can work out. Statcast hated Haseley’s quality of contact and Quinn hasn’t made good with his chances. But they’re both young players who could yet make strides. Bruce wasn’t great in Philly last year but has mostly been an above-average offensive producer even in his decline years.

Infield

J.T. Realmuto: The Phillies feel he’s the best catcher in baseball and it’s possible there’s even more in the tank. He has done more offensively than he did in 2019. There’ll be no shortage of motivation with free agency beckoning.

Rhys Hoskins: He collapsed late last year but still led the league in walks. If he can figure out what went wrong … he was a .263/.401/.530 monster through his first 392 plate appearances in 2019.

Didi Gregorius: We’re looking at a guy who was a quality defensive shortstop who produced about 25% more offensive than the average player in 2018. He wasn’t back to that level after fighting back from Tommy John surgery, but as with Hoskins, the established ceiling isn’t that far in the rearview mirror.

Jean Segura: A steady producer for three seasons before the Phillies acquired him, Segura stumbled a bit last year. But when you look under the hood, he mostly seems to be the same player, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he was to bounce back at thirty years of age.

Alec Bohm: The team’s top prospect bolted up the ladder last year and ended up posting big numbers at Double-A (.269/.344/.500; 38:28 K/BB ratio). He’s a candidate to break out upon his MLB arrival.

Utility

Scott Kingery: It’s important to remember that the Phillies can lean on Kingery in the infield or the outfield. That leaves flexibility to accommodate the rise of Bohm, needs in center field, or opportunities to add new players. Kingery had some ups and downs in his second season in the bigs, but ultimately made huge strides and turned in a league-average offensive season.

Josh Harrison/Neil Walker/Logan Forsythe/T.J. Rivera: The Phillies promised opportunities to compete in camp to a series of veterans who’ve had quite a bit of MLB success. That’s not necessarily likely to result in a lucky score of a high-quality regular, but it’s possible. And the team can reasonably hope it has added some useful pieces for cheap.

Rotation

Aaron Nola: He took a bit of a step back last year but was still quite good. And Nola put up a Cy Young-caliber effort in the season prior.

Zack Wheeler: This signing was all about the upside positively dripping from Wheeler’s high-powered right arm. There are risks, too, but there’s also a real possibility the Phils hit a home run here.

Jake Arrieta: As with McCutchen, it’d be foolish to pine for a return to the glory days. But Arrieta had turned in quality output even with diminished stuff before running into bigger problems in 2019. He was a sub-4.00 hurler in the two prior campaigns.

Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta/Zach Eflin: It’s something of an annual tradition to marvel at the big arms of Velasquez and Pivetta while wondering if they can succeed as MLB starters. It hasn’t really happened yet, but there have been flashes and crazier things have happened. Eflin’s peripherals slipped last year and he doesn’t exactly profile as an ace, but he has turned in 291 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA ball in the past two seasons.

Cole Irvin/Enyel De Los Santos/Adonis Medina/Spencer Howard: Irvin and De Los Santos have reached (but hardly mastered) the majors. It’s possible to imagine solid production coming from either or both. There are some highly regarded arms not far behind. It seems both of these hurlers have some development left, but when talent figures things out it can move quickly …

Bullpen

Hector Neris: He got the long balls under control in 2019 and returned to being one of the game’s more effective closers.

Tommy Hunter/David Robertson: It’s hard to count on too much, but these accomplished veterans could certainly have a rebound. The layoff will give extra time for both to rest and rehab.

Bud Norris/Anthony Swarzak/Blake Parker/Drew Storen: There are also a fair number of other veteran types looking to revive their careers in Philadelphia. Tough to say what to expect, but there are decent odds that there’s some productivity here. Norris is a particularly interesting candidate; he was quite useful in 2018 but sat out the ensuing season when interest didn’t develop as expected.

Victor Arano: He was quite good in 2018 and now has added time to recover from elbow surgery.

Deolis Guerra: The MLB track record is quite thin, but he thrived in a tough Triple-A environment last year.

Adam Morgan/Jose Alvarez/Ranger Suarez/Francisco Liriano: It’s not a star-studded group of lefties, but there is at least sufficient depth.

The Phils also have a fairly large group of younger pitchers already on the 40-man, many with MLB experience. While few jump off the page for their obvious upside, the Phillies can still hope that someone emerges from the group. Edgar Garcia may be the most interesting, with big swinging-strike rates and good results in the upper minors. There are three lefties with strong upper-minors strikeout numbers but other questions: Austin Davis, Garrett Cleavinger, and Kyle Dohy.

Remember, the bullpen is likely to end up with some spillover from the rotation, with Pivetta a particularly likely candidate to spend time in the ’pen. Hope remains that his stuff could play up in a relief role.

Overall

It’s silly to contemplate a scenario where literally everything breaks right for a team. That’s more or less impossible. But the realistic upside possibilities are fairly interesting. There’s potential for one mega-star (Harper), at least one top-of-class player (Realmuto), and several others with All-Star capabilities in the position-player mix. The pitching picture is similar, with a set of mid-prime hurlers who could emerge as twin aces and a reasonably interesting blend behind them.

Many have pegged the Phils as the fourth-best team in the NL East, and that’s quite possible accurate when you blend in all the downside. But this club still has the potential to break out — particularly if a strong early showing facilitates additional mid-season investments (presuming there’s such an opportunity).

Who’s The Top 2020-21 Free Agent Starter?

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There’s a lot of time left to assess the 2020-21 free agent class. It would help to have, y’know, some actual baseball to help inform. But in the absence of that, we can still make some assessments based upon what we already know.

Scanning the upcoming group of open-market starters, there’s no clear top arm. It’s certainly possible that one or more hurlers will significantly boost his stock with a big (partial) 2020 season, as we’ve seen in recent years from guys like Zack Wheeler and Patrick Corbin. But it’s pretty clear we’re not going to see another $200MM+ pitcher in the upcoming offseason.

There’s necessarily some serious guesswork here, but let’s see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Here are the candidates we’ll consider … which is likeliest to be the top free agent starter? (In alphabetical order below, randomized in the poll.)

  • Trevor Bauer: Well, we just gave you our best early guesses on camera. There’s no denying the upside here, as exhibited in his monster 2018 season. Bauer has all the necessary tools and is a curious craftsman when it comes to driving improvement. With a strong showing, he could be chased by quite a few contenders that find appeal in the idea of a rental ace.
  • Mike Minor: The results have been quite good and Minor’s health issues have faded. Perhaps his two lost seasons (2015-16) can even be spun as a bit of an advantage, in that he wasn’t logging mileage on his arm in that span.
  • Jake Odorizzi: Here’s a hurler that is easy to overlook. Odorizzi is coming off of a 3.51 ERA campaign and can’t be issued another qualifying offer.
  • James Paxton: With a long layoff, Paxton has had an opportunity to rest his surgically repaired back. That could help him more than any other player on this list.
  • Jose Quintana: Steady production. Excellent durability. He was probably somewhat unfortunate to post below-average results in 2019.
  • Robbie Ray: Probably the favorite for top dog status … and yet … the strikeout numbers are gaudy, but so are the walk rates. And Ray hasn’t consistently turned swings and misses into output. He owns a 4.11 ERA and landed higher than that mark in 2019.
  • Garrett Richards: When he’s healthy, he’s usually pretty awesome. Richards is recovered from Tommy John surgery and well-rested.
  • Marcus Stroman: It’s possible we’re not hyping Stroman enough. He just turned in 32 starts of 3.22 ERA ball.
  • Masahiro Tanaka: Through his six years in the majors, Tanaka has run up over a thousand frames of 3.75 ERA pitching.
  • Other: There’s a case that you’d be best off betting on the field. There are some talented arms out there who could launch back into big-contract status with a strong showing in 2020. Among them: Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, Michael Wacha, Jimmy Nelson, Anthony DeSclafani, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, etc.

Who’s the favorite to be the market leader? (Poll link for app users.)

Rizzo & Freeman Headline 2021-22 Free Agent First Basemen

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It’s an MLBTR tradition to maintain a list of not only the immediately pending group of free agents, but also those next in line. As part of the festivities, a certain number of folks fail to read the headline and prefatory language closely, thus prompting vehement protestations about players wrongly included or excluded.

To forestall that outcome to the extent possible, we just ran through the full 2020-21 free agent class on a position-by-position basis. (Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers.) Please explore those lists for the players who’ll be on the open market after the 2020 season.

What follows is a list of certain players — specifically, catchers — who are presently slated to qualify for free agency after the 2021 season. We’ve already run through the amazing group of shortstops in that class and taken a look at the veteran backstops coming to the market. It’s important also to understand that this list is far from exhaustive, in that many first basemen set for free agency in 2020-21 will ultimately ink one-year deals that put them back on track to return to the open market post-2021.

This is how the 2021-22 first base market shapes up at this point (season-age for 2022):

Top of the Class

  • Freddie Freeman (32): He’s such a franchise icon that the club’s former GM preferred Freeman to his own right arm … and that we forgot to include him in the initial version of this list. Gulp. It is indeed hard to imagine Freeman in another uniform after so many great seasons in Atlanta. Then again, an elbow injury did crop up in 2019. And the team’s current executive leadership may not have quite the same attachment to a much older version of the slugger. We’ll see whether and when serious talks on a second extension. If Freeman does reach the market, there’s a good chance he’ll be one of the most hotly pursued players. But teams are only going to pay so much for a first baseman of this vintage in the current environment.
  • Anthony Rizzo (32): He isn’t sure to be part of this class, as the Cubs could in theory decline their option next winter and let Rizzo sign a multi-year deal elsewhere. That’s … unlikely. Through nine years and over five thousand plate appearances in the majors, Rizzo is a .273/.373/.488 hitter who has launched 218 home runs. He has been a steadily excellent producer since his breakout 2014 season. We’ll see what the intervening seasons bring, but the odds are good that Rizzo will be one of the best bats available in the 2021-22 offseason. You might think the Cubs would be interested in pursuing an extension, particularly given Rizzo’s central role in the club’s identity, but the team declined the advances of the star first bagger this offseason. Future talks remain possible, but this was perhaps the most promising window.

Other Regulars

  • Brandon Belt (34): Long a high-quality but under-appreciated hitter, Belt has also dealt with significant concussion issues over the years. He was healthy in 2019, but also drooped in the power department — already a source of consternation for many Giants fans — over the past two campaigns. There are some rays of hope. Belt’s plate discipline was as good as ever last year (13.5% walk rate, 20.6% strikeout rate). And by measure of Statcast, he has produced better contact than the results would suggest (.327 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA in 2018; .319 vs. .346 in 2019).
  • Matt Carpenter (36): While he’s not playing first base at the moment, Carpenter has plenty of experience there and will likely be viewed as a first bagger when he reaches free agency. It feels rather likely that the Cardinals will end up paying a $2MM buyout rather than exercising a $18.5MM vesting option. Then again, couldn’t Carpenter’s sudden fall-off in 2019 represent a blip? He was a top-notch offensive producer for years before. I can’t think offhand of a player whose Statcast readings dove so dramatically. Carpenter dropped from a 44.7% hard contact rate in 2018 to a miserly 31.1% rate in 2019, while he sunk from a .392 xwOBA (his fourth-straight season ranking in the top ten percent leaguewide by that metric) to a middling .332 mark. Carpenter ended the year with a .225/.334/.392 batting line and personal-high 26.2% strikeout rate. He could be a big factor in this market, but he’ll have to figure out what went wrong.

Other Option Possibilities

Like Rizzo, several other notable players can each be controlled for the 2021 season through club options. Should that come to pass, those players would play out their contracts before returning to the open market. If they don’t perform well enough, there’s still a good chance they’ll end up in the 2021-22 free agent class.

  • Carlos Santana (36; $17.5MM option, $500K buyout) and Edwin Encarnacion (39; $12MM option, no buyout) lead the way here. It’s not certain they’ll be in this class: their options are expensive enough that they could conceivably be sent onto the open market after a good-but-not-great season and still end up signing a multi-year deal. And Encarnacion, at least, is getting up there in years. Another player with a lot of money at stake is Daniel Murphy (37), who’ll either receive a $6MM buyout or play for a $12MM salary in 2021.
  • Todd Frazier (36; $5.75MM option, $1.5MM buyout), Justin Smoak (35; $5.5MM option, $1MM buyout), Eric Thames (35; $4MM mutual option, $1MM buyout), and Mitch Moreland (36; $3MM option, $500K buyout) are all also possibilities to become parts of this class.

Names to Watch

  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30): The Japanese star inked a two-year deal with the Rays this past offseason. It’s anyone’s guess how it’ll look when Tsutsugo is ready to return to the open market. While he has historically spent most of his time in the outfield, he’s being given time in the infield in Tampa Bay and has experience at first base in Nippon Professional Baseball.
  • Mark Canha (33): He’s currently finding success ranging on the outfield grass, but Canha came up primarily as a first baseman. And if he can sustain his monster 2019 output — .273/.396/.517 — then the bat will play anywhere on the diamond.
  • Ian Desmond (36): It’s all but inconceivable that the Rockies will exercise their $15MM club option ($2MM buyout) over the struggling veteran, so he’s sure to be a part of this class. Even with a bounceback platform season, though, teams aren’t likely to relish the idea of plugging Desmond into their first base mix. Though he was rather oddly plugged in at first when the Rockies signed him, the former shortstop and center fielder’s real potential value lies in his defensive versatility.

The Dodgers’ Underappreciated 2018 Trade Heist

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Just before the calendar flipped from 2018 to 2019, the Dodgers and Reds formally executed a deal that sent short-term veterans to Cincinnati and prospects to Los Angeles … a bit of an oddity in and of itself, given the expectations and eventual results for those two clubs in 2019. The ever-fascinating Yasiel Puig! Former star Matt Kemp, fresh off of a resurgent ’18 effort! Excellent lefty Alex Wood, probably the best present-talent player in the deal! And going in the other direction: Homer Bailey, the guy (some fans allege) the Reds chose to keep over Johnny Cueto!

For a trade that involved some huge names, this one didn’t get a ton of hype at the time. And it faded from memory rather quickly, in no small part because the most visible players in the deal ended up in other uniforms. That’s not to say there weren’t some big moments along the way, it’s just … the most memorable one occurred minutes after Puig was traded away to the Indians, when he took part in an on-field brawl with his technically former Reds teammates.

Looking back on the deal, you can see what the Reds were trying to accomplish and why they hoped it would work out. But it stung in retrospect, even with Puig helping the club secure the services of Trevor Bauer in that summer swap. More than a loss for the Reds, though, it stands out as a masterstroke by the Dodgers, who didn’t miss the veteran talent they parted with, re-filled their farm system, saved money, and gained payroll flexibility.

Let’s break it all back down and see what precisely each side got and gave up …

Dodgers Receive

  • Homer Bailey, SP: one year, $23MM + $5MM buyout
  • Josiah Gray, SP: 6+ seasons of control; not yet on 40-man roster
  • Jeter Downs, INF: 6+ seasons of control; not yet on 40-man roster

Reds Receive

  • Matt Kemp, OF: one year, $21.5MM
  • Yasiel Puig, OF: one year, $9.7MM
  • Alex Wood, SP: one year, $9.65MM
  • Kyle Farmer, C/INF: 5 seasons of control; pre-arbitration
  • $7MM cash

So, the Dodgers took on $28MM in salary and sent another $7MM to Cincinnati, while the Reds absorbed $40.85MM in 2019 spending obligations.

You can see how the Reds convinced themselves to gamble some young talent here. They added less than $6MM in payroll obligations to get a trio of veterans who had long track records of success. In 2018, Puig turned in a 123 wRC+ effort while Kemp hit at a nearly identical rate (122 wRC+). Wood spun 151 2/3 innings of 3.68 ERA ball and had been even better the season prior. Farmer was a cheap and useful player to sweeten the pot. Even if the Cincinnati club didn’t break out, the front office likely felt it’d be able to recoup some value at the deadline (which, to an extent, it did).

On the Dodgers’ side, there was an added piece of value. Competitive balance tax considerations were of no concern to the lower-spending Redlegs, but the Los Angeles organization strongly preferred to stay under the luxury line. Bailey’s contract helped make that possible, because the average annual value of his deal was much lower than the remaining cash he was actually owed. As it turns out, the Dodgers skated in just under the $206MM payroll line. In addition to moving the salaries of Puig and Wood, changing out Kemp money ($20MM CBT hit) for Bailey money ($17.5MM) made the difference.

That critical piece of accounting work was accomplished without really taking anything from the Reds at all, leaving the Dodgers room to structure a swap that brought in serious prospect value. Both Gray and Downs were seen as solid talents at the time of the deal, but they’ve only boosted their stock since.

After one year of added seasoning, we now know, the Dodgers secured two leaguewide top-100 prospects out of this deal. Gray rocketed through the low minors to finish the 2019 season at Double-A, where he ran up 39 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA pitching in his age-21 campaign. He’s now a significant part of the Dodgers’ near-term rotation picture.

Downs also took off and reached the penultimate level of the minors in his first (and, it turns out, only) season in the Los Angeles organization. The middle infielder spent most of the season pummeling High-A pitching and ended the campaign with a cumulative .276/.362/.526 slash and 24 home runs through 535 plate appearances. The Dodgers preferred to keep Downs, but he ended up being a necessary piece of the team’s bold bid to add superstar Mookie Betts. When the original deal fell apart, the club agreed to a modified pact that sent Downs to the Red Sox as the key prospect asset.

The original Dodgers-Reds trade unquestionably delivered a hit to the Dodgers’ 2019 talent pool. Otherwise, they never would’ve been able to pull it off. But the club’s immense depth left a robust mix in both the outfield and the rotation. The Dodgers rightly anticipated they’d be just fine with losing this trio of players. Sure enough, the club led all of baseball in outfield WAR and tied for second in the rotation.

Funny enough, this one could’ve worked out even better for the Dodgers. Baseball being the bizarre game that it is, Bailey actually ended up being the most productive player in this deal in 2019. He contributed 2.0 rWAR/2.9 fWAR … though not to the Dodgers, who cut him loose after the swap. Bailey caught on with the Royals and ended up being acquired by the Athletics, throwing well enough to earn a $7MM contract with the Twins this winter. To be fair, even had the Dodgers given it a shot, they may not have had room for Bailey on their already loaded staff.

The others involved didn’t fare as well, last season or in free agency. Puig didn’t play quite to expectations before the mid-summer trade. He remains the best free agent that has yet to sign. Kemp was cut loose after a brutal early showing and is now on a minor-league pact with the Marlins. And Wood? He missed most of 2019 with injury, severely curtailing the Reds’ side of this deal. But he did return late in the season, just enough to show he’s back to health … and to earn a return to Los Angeles on an incentive-laden, $4MM deal that could work out quite nicely for the Dodgers if he can return to form.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yadier Molina Intends To Play Beyond 2020, Whether Or Not With Cardinals

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In an interesting twist on the post-2020 catching market, long-time Cardinals backstop Yadier Molina tells ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera that he’s open to playing in another uniform if and when he reaches free agency.

That’s quite a different stance than the one Molina announced just a few months ago. He made clear then that he was interested in continuing to play, but only in St. Louis, where he has been a fixture behind the dish since 2005. The team reciprocated and launched extension talks that seemed likely to come to fruition.

Now? Molina explains to Rivera that “the situation with this pandemic has changed everything.” While he still prefers to remain with the Cards — the only team he has ever played for — the likely future Hall of Famer says he’s “willing to go into free agency” and find another organization.

It seems the change of heart is less about Molina’s feelings towards the team than it is his feelings for the game of baseball itself. He says he’d like to “have that conversation” again about an extension with the Cardinals, at least once baseball finally starts back up. And Molina says he’s “confident” an agreement will come together.

But the time away from the game has also convinced Molina he wants to keep going past a (likely shortened) 2020 campaign.  In fact, the 37-year-old says he intends to keep playing for two more seasons no matter the outcome of his talks with the Cards.

Latest Tigers News & Notes

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Picking first in the upcoming draft won’t be quite as advantageous as usual, as the Tigers will only have between five and ten rounds to utilize their advantage. But it’s still an exciting opportunity to infuse big-time talent into an organization that has patiently awaited a return to competitiveness. The Tigers are sorting through a long list of possibilities; you can familiarize yourself with many of them by checking out Baseball America’s first top 500 draft prospect list.

Here’s the latest from the Detroit organization:

  • Tigers analytics chief Jay Sartori held an interesting chat with Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic (subscription link) about the team’s efforts to construct an analytics department over the past several years. He now oversees a “robust staff,” he says, after an “incremental” building process that started from a mostly blank slate. Sartori came aboard in November of 2015, not long after Al Avila was hired as GM. So what are the Tigers focused on in this realm? Sartori says it’s the question of how to make “complicated concepts and data sets and pieces of information readily accessible to staff and players?”
  • Making analytics work for ballplayers is now a big part of the job for MLB coaches. Tigers hitting coach Joe Vavra acknowledged that, saying that he’s working on “challenging [hitters] to come out of their comfort zone a little bit” when it comes to data and advanced analysis, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported recently. Applying analytics requires “baby steps” at the start, says Vavra, and the organization is trying to get its players to take as many as possible during the present hiatus. Otherwise, the team is handling all its players differently. For some, Vavra is helping to oversee “rather major adjustments to your mechanics and your swing;” for others, it’s mostly a matter of maintaining conditioning.
  • Detroit pitching coach Rick Anderson also just chatted with media, as Stavenhagen covers in a Twitter thread. Anderson says it was disappointing to see Spring Training halted because he wanted to see more of the team’s slate of prized upper-level pitching prospects. Even more worrying, perhaps, is the lack of anticipated minor-league competition. The organization doesn’t seem to have a clear idea yet as to how it’ll make up for the lost developmental opportunity, though obviously that’s an industry-wide issue.
  • Though the focus remains largely on the future, the Tigers did go out and make some notable potential improvements to the MLB infield mix. McCosky examines a unit that now includes anticipated regular veterans in most spots. C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, and Austin Romine are slated to earn a combined $16.3MM — at least, in a full 2020 season. The shortstop position was due to feature Niko Goodrum and Jordy Mercer, with third base handled by Jeimer Candelario and/or other unproven players such as Dawel Lugo and Isaac Paredes. While most of the options on the left side of the infield will remain under team control beyond 2020, the new additions were all on one-year pacts. McCosky looks at the potential line of succession in all areas.

Latest On MLB Teams’ Cost-Cutting Efforts

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There’s a spreading optimism — or, at least, a spread of reporting about optimism — regarding the return of baseball in 2020. But the pandemic shutdown has already stung MLB teams and the near-term revenue prospects remain poor, even if a television-only campaign is launched.

Unsurprisingly, even as teams prepare to refund fans for games that won’t be played as expected, we’re seeing enhanced efforts on the part of MLB organizations to cut costs. As Pirates GM Ben Cherington put it (via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), “revenues aren’t coming in” but “cash is still going out.”

The notoriously tight-fisted Bucs have enacted austerity policies. But sources tell Mackey that the team isn’t among those in the roughest shape financially around the game. The Pirates have stopped 401(k) contributions and suspended fellowship/internship programs while top-level leaders take reductions in pay. Cherington says “the full expectation is that [401(k)] contribution will go back into effect as soon as possible,” and emphasized that the hope was to “find some savings without too much impact on people and their everyday lives.”

None of these sorts of measures are pleasant, but Pirates employees seem to be in better stead than those of the Rays. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the low-budget Tampa Bay outfit has become the first MLB organization “to implement aggressive expense cutting moves” — in particular, furloughing some full-time employees and cutting the pay of others that earn above a certain threshold.

The Rays are covering health insurance for furloughed staff and the hope remains to bring many jobs back online. But the move reflects the stark realities of the sport in the era of COVID-19. Per Topkin, the top organizational leadership advised employees of concern that the revenue drag could continue for years to come.

Like the Rays, the Athletics have been scrimping and saving while working through difficult new-ballpark negotiations and planning. With those efforts now confronted by an entirely new sort of hurdle, and the near-term revenue outlook plummeting, the Oakland club is considering cuts of its own, according to Ken Rosenthal and Alex Coffey of The Athletic (subscription link). The A’s may actually be contemplating something rather more aggressive than what the Rays just enacted. The Athletic reports that the Oakland org is “discussing extensive layoffs” and could ultimately carry a “significantly smaller staff on both the business and baseball sides.”

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle also examines the A’s situation. Employees say they have no idea what to expect and the team hasn’t responded to requests for comment. It remains to be seen how the situation will be handled, but with every other team in the league having already charted a path, the silence is ominous. Slusser doesn’t offer a definitive prediction, but does warn: “don’t be surprised” if major cuts occur.

These three teams may be pressed into action sooner than some peers, but the issues aren’t limited to lower-budget organizations. As Mackey writes in the above-linked post, and as we have covered in recent weeks, several other clubs have also pursued cost-reduction strategies that impact employees. And The Athletic reports that multiple teams around the league have had some level of internal discussion of major changes to their operations. At the moment, every team in baseball aside from the A’s and Rays has promised to retain full-time employees through the end of May. Hopefully, there’ll be sufficient clarity and optimism in the outlook at that point to avoid broader cuts.

MLB Will Permit Teams To Develop Ticket Refund Policies

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Major League Baseball is preparing to allow its thirty teams to issue new ticket policies to facilitate refunds for games missed due to the coronavirus shutdown, Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal reports. To this point, the league had treated those contests as postponements that would, in theory, be made up.

It appears as if every organization will set its own course. It’s not yet clear if the league will limit the timeframes or issue other limitations on how teams can respond. Some clubs had already begun facilitating requests from fans who reached out in hopes of obtaining a refund.

While the league hasn’t yet cancelled 2020 regular season games, and doesn’t intend to do so at present, teams will evidently now have greater flexibility to go ahead with refunds. That seems to match the reality of the situation. There’s no reason to think that we’ll have typical games with fans in the stands in the coming months, if at all in 2020, and many ticketholders are surely in need of the cash they had previously plunked down for tickets.

It has been one week since a lawsuit was filed seeking class action status to challenge the league’s decision not to issue ticket refunds. Whether that action will proceed, perhaps in some modified form, remains to be seen.

20 Baseball Contracts Over $200MM

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Not long ago, the $200MM threshold was one rarely breached by MLB contracts. It has become increasingly common. Now, you might say, $300MM is the new bar for the most rarefied air. But the $200MM club is still rather exclusive, with just twenty members.

Typically, we evaluate contracts based upon the new money actually promised in the deal. That is, we don’t count already guaranteed future money when we write about contract extensions. But that’s not the only reasonable way to discuss cash, depending upon what you’re trying to measure. (And that’s all before considering deferrals and other major contractual elements.) In this case, what we’re hoping to examine is the biggest overall commitments teams have made to players.

MLB’s 20 biggest-ever contract commitments:

1. Mike Trout (Angels, $426.5MM): Is it possible to earn this much more than any other player, despite signing extensions rather than inking an open-market deal, and still remain a bargain? Well, yeah, if you are one of the absolute best baseball players ever to take the field. Joe Posnanski just graded Trout the 27th greatest player of all time based upon his accomplishments through his *rubs eyes disbelievingly* age-27 season. It was hardly surprising when the Halos added ten years and $360MM to the preexisting deal between the parties. This contract won’t actually kick in until 2021, so it’s impossible to evaluate it, but Trout was his typically unbelievable self last year and has yet to show any signs of slowing down.

2. Bryce Harper (Phillies, $330MM): It took a super-long, 13-year pact to get Harper to this level — the biggest contract ever when inked. But he wanted to ride out his career in one uniform and the Phils were willing to enter new contractual territory to bring him over from the division-rival Nationals. The first season wasn’t a barn-burner, with Harper producing good but hardly superstar-level numbers at the plate, but he’s still just 27 years of age and has plenty of time to make good on the deal.

3. Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins, $325MM): Another 13-season behemoth, this pact was inked years earlier than Harper’s and included opt-outs. The Yankees took over the contract after Stanton’s 2017 MVP season. While he has mostly produced high-end offensive numbers since putting pen to paper, he has also encountered some health issues and missed most of the 2019 season.

4. Gerrit Cole (Yankees, $324MM): The bidding got out of hand quickly as Cole flew past prior starting pitcher contracts and became the first (and thus far only) hurler to break the $300MM barrier. The contract didn’t just set a new high-water mark for overall guarantee to a pitcher; it also topped Trout with a monster $36MM average annual value over its nine-year term. We’re still waiting to see how this deal plays out.

5. Manny Machado (Padres, $300MM): As with the Harper deal, Machado’s was premised in no small part on the fact that he was still youthful enough that a lengthy and massive investment could pay huge dividends over a long period of time. This one went for ten years, so Machado is actually out-earning Harper on an AAV basis. He also turned in a good but underwhelming debut season with his new club.

6. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees, $275MM): This was one of the first monster deals of the MLBTR era. Tim Dierkes wrote at the time that “$28MM would be a pretty fair deal for him, maybe even a bargain.” Nobody could’ve foreseen the craziness that ensued — Biogenesis, talk of voiding the deal, a surprisingly civil mid-2016 retirement, etc. — but it was eminently reasonable to make the deal at the time. As it turned out, Rodriguez contributed only 23.1 rWAR from that point forward, though the fact that it seems underwhelming only serves to show just how good he was.

7. Nolan Arenado (Rockies, $260MM): This deal included $234MM in new money — a huge amount for a mid-tier spender but also a fair sum for one of the game’s most consistently productive position players. Though Arenado was as productive as ever in 2019, the Rox took a step back and had to consider trade scenarios over the offseason.

8. Alex Rodriguez (Rangers, $252MM): A-Rod opted out of this one, setting the stage for the already-covered pact. The original $252MM contract was perhaps the most successful ever deal of this magnitude. Rodriguez racked up 56.4 rWAR over the seven seasons that were completed before he exercised the exit clause.

9. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers, $248MM): It seemed questionable at the time for the Detroit organization to make this kind of commitment two years before Cabrera was slated for free agency. But nobody could’ve expected the kind of collapse that has occurred since. Cabrera is an all-time great hitter but has dealt with health issues and doesn’t profile as a highly productive mid-to-late-thirties player.

10. Stephen Strasburg (Nationals, $245MM): Strasburg is the chief protagonist in the tale of the Nationals’ rise, intervening disappointments, and eventual 2019 triumph. It’s fitting that he’ll likely end up spending his entire career in D.C., and Strasburg has shown he can dominate even without top-shelf velocity, though it’s also quite a risk on a 31-year-old hurler who has had his share of arm troubles.

10. Anthony Rendon (Angels, $245MM): Another newer deal resulted in the departure of another former Nats star. Rendon has long been a strong producer, but reached new heights with the bat in his most recent seasons and seems a good bet to keep up the steady output for years to come.

12. Albert Pujols (Angels, $240MM): The Halos hope their latest contract in this realm works out better than the last one. Pujols was already 32 when he went west and — we now know — his best years were behind him. The Halos got a few useful campaigns but it was nothing like the superstar output of yore.

12. Robinson Cano (Mariners, $240MM): Hello Cano came about when the Yankees didn’t pursue their stud second baseman quite as forcefully as many expected and the M’s stepped in with a bold bid. Cano returned 23.3 rWAR in his five seasons in Seattle, which was strong production and enough to allow the team to trade away the back half of the deal even after a PED suspension. We recently explored in a video just how rough that swap was for the Mets; it has worked out even better than hoped for Seattle.

14. Joey Votto (Reds, $225MM): While some would prefer their star first basemen to deliver more dingers, Votto has been an enormously productive hitter for quite some time. He’s coming off of a tepid 2018 (by his standards) and decidedly average 2019 showing, so there’s some reason to worry whether Votto is beginning to fade. But the game’s ultimate professional hitter has largely lived up to expectations and could yet add more value over the final years of his deal.

15. David Price (Red Sox, $217MM): The biggest pitching contract in history when signed, the Price deal hasn’t really paid out as hoped but also wasn’t a total train wreck. The southpaw has been a quality performer — but not the ace he once was — and the Sox won a title. It cost Boston half of the remainder of the deal to offload Price on the Dodgers as part of a bigger swap this past offseason.

16. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers, $215MM): This was a slam dunk of a deal to sign. Kershaw was the game’s preeminent hurler entering his walk year in 2014. He ended up winning the MVP award in the season before the deal formally kicked in, so there’s little doubt the star southpaw would’ve cost bundles more in free agency. While back issues have reduced his dominance, Kershaw remains an excellent starter. When his opt-out decision was pending in the fall of 2018, he and the club agreed to an extension that expanded the original deal.

16. Christian Yelich (Brewers, $215MM): The most recent two-hundred-million-dollar man has emerged as one of the game’s best players since the Brewers acquired him and his team-friendly early-career extension from the Marlins. He agreed to his new contract just before Spring Training was halted — less than two months ago, if you can believe it — thus adding seven seasons and $188.5MM on top of the final two years he was already promised. If Yelich can maintain anything like the trajectory he has established over the past two seasons, this new contract will be a bargain.

18. Prince Fielder (Tigers, $214MM): Fielder had a monster debut season in Detroit, but this ultimately turned into another classic slugger contract that didn’t really pan out. He had one more good campaign left in him after a swap to the Rangers, but Fielder was ultimately forced into early retirement owing to neck surgery. The Texas organization was able to sort out a settlement with its insurer.

19. Max Scherzer (Nationals, $210MM): Wonder why teams sign these deals when so many seem to run into trouble? This is Exhibit A. Scherzer has just plain dealt in D.C., winning two Cy Young awards and placing in the top five of the voting in each of his five seasons with the Nats. We just examined whether an extension of the arrangement might be worth pursuing.

20. Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks, $206.5MM): And that brings us to … probably the biggest stunner on this list. Nobody saw Greinke going to Arizona, least of all for a deal with this much money in a six-season span. Good as he was in his platform season, and for years before that, Greinke managed to set an AAV record entering his age-32 season. He got off to a rough start with the Snakes, but ended up delivering strong results — so much so that the Arizona organization was able to recoup significant young talent (while also holding onto a big portion of the remaining salary) in a 2019 trade deadline blockbuster.

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