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Twins Still Searching For Major Rotation Addition

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We’re closing in on the one-year anniversary of these memorable words from Twins GM Thad Levine: “The best moves are made not when you’re trying to open the window to contend, but when the window is wide open. We’re very eagerly waiting for this window to be opened, and when it is, we plan on striking.”

Last season, the Minnesota roster shattered the pane with 101 wins. A roster that front office characterized as possessing an “unusual abundance of variance and volatility” came up aces. Now, Levine and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey have no real choice but to believe in the talent on hand and take on the mentality of a clear contender. There are several areas to consider for improvement, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained at the outset of the offseason, the rotation was the prime area of focus.

So, how to understand the club’s early maneuvering? Falvey and Levine opened the offseason by bringing back two preexisting players at much higher prices than they had played for in the prior two seasons. The added cost is understandable in each instance, as both pitchers boosted their value with quality seasons. Jake Odorizzi doesn’t seem likely to vastly outperform the $17.8MM he’s now promised after accepting the qualifying offer — he’ll be hard-pressed to replicate his excellent results from 2019 — but it’s an appealing contract for the team since it comes without any future obligations. And just-re-inked hurler Michael Pineda seemed like a plausible candidate to be pursued at a higher rate of pay, so his two-year, $20MM contract seems at worst to be a market-value move that comes with real upside.

The front office is pleased with these re-acquisitions, as it should be, but the rotation remains incomplete. “I do think we’ve stabilized the team and that was essential,” Levine explains to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription link). “Now, we still have the ability to impact it significantly. But, first steps first, was to stabilize.”

Odorizzi and Pineda helped the Twins to a magical 2019 regular season and can undoubtedly be a big part of driving another winner. Doubling down on last year’s unit is mostly a fine strategy. But that roster variability that the Twins’ upper management cited this time last year? It cuts both ways. Mitch Garver might turn into a pumpkin. Nelson Cruz could show his age. Odorizzi and Pineda are hardly assured of repeating their ’19 efforts. Injuries and performance backslides are always possible. With the Indians facing uncertainty, the White Sox trying to figure out precisely how to vault into contention, and the remainder of the AL Central firmly in the rebuilding camp, now isn’t the time for the Twins to play it safe.

Retaining Odorizzi and Pineda was the prelude — but to what? Levine says that the team is “aspirational of getting the best players we can get.” He also suggested patience in making that happen. “What we’ve seen the last couple of years is that this process has skewed later and later each year,” says Levine of free agency. “Maybe we’re seeing it rebound a little bit this offseason and we’re going to be attentive to that. But we’re having a lot of meetings now to put ourselves in the best position to proceed.”

Just how it’ll all shake out remains to be seen. The Twins aren’t in the market for Gerrit Cole but do have eyes on the next tier of available arms. Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu have long been known to be targets. Fellow southpaw starter Dallas Keuchel is also of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

Hayes also emphasizes the possibility of trades, even noting that the front office hasn’t ruled out dealing from among its very best prospects. Trouble is, the trade market isn’t exactly laden with obviously available, high-end hurlers. Robbie Ray is probably the best rental arm that could be had; otherwise, Chris Archer may be the next-best single-season target that seems to be available. Matthew Boyd and Caleb Smith are among the controllable pitchers that ought to be open for bids. It is difficult to imagine deals coming together with the Rockies (Jon Gray, German Marquez), Mets (Noah Syndergaard), or Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez, David Price), but the Twins have surely inquired. Unfortunately, some of the most intriguing wild-card targets (Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger) play for the division-rival Indians.

The Twins aren’t the only organization playing this high-stakes game at the moment. Intense and widespread demand explains why the Phillies spent big to land Zack Wheeler — beating the Twins and others to do so — while the Nationals went to such heights to retain Stephen Strasburg. If and when the Twins finally put the wraps on a major transaction to haul in a top-shelf starter, it’ll likely sting the wallet or the farm. But with that metaphorical window now wide open, it’s incumbent upon the organization to dedicate real resources to taking advantage.

Latest On Kris Bryant

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The Cubs have reportedly been in fervent pursuit of trade possibilities, exploring deals involving much of their roster — including Kris Bryant. There are some wrinkles to structuring a deal for the superstar third baseman, as well as some new market developments of note. In particular, the Nationals have approached the Cubs to discuss Bryant, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

The Cubs are still awaiting resolution on a service-time grievance filed by Bryant and his representatives, despite the fact that a hearing was held in late October.  Speaking to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said he felt the ruling is “not going to be more than a couple weeks away,” though he admitted some frustration that the matter has yet to be decided.

That said, Epstein stated the team is “operating with what our understanding of what the likely outcome will be and moving forward that way,” which would hint that the Cubs are confident that Bryant will remain under team control through the 2021 season.  A ruling in the other direction, which would grant Bryant free agency after the 2020 season, would certainly count as a surprise, and one with a major impact on Chicago’s future roster maneuverings.

Needless to say, the length of Bryant’s remaining service time would have a giant impact on what the Wrigleyville side would receive back in a trade, though the third base market joins the delayed grievance ruling as the biggest factors in any trade plans the Cubs might have for Bryant.  Sharma notes that the Cubs are figuring that teams who miss out on Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson could come calling about Bryant, which would leave Chicago discussing Bryant with at least three of such teams as the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, Phillies, and Nationals.  Of that group, the Cubs would most likely be interested in the prospect-deep Atlanta or Los Angeles farm systems. Sharma also wonders if Chicago could also shop Bryant to the Padres (another club with a stacked farm system) as an outfielder, since San Diego is set at the corner infield spots with Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer.

In terms of specific potential landing spots, it seems we’re mostly dealing with informed speculation and hypotheticals. But we’re also beginning to see indications of actual trade talks.  The Nationals’ reported expression of interest is certainly intriguing, though it may be difficult for the D.C. organization to structure a deal. The club is not ruling out a return from Rendon and has also shown interest in Donaldson. But adding another monster deal to bring back Rendon would be tough to do. And Donaldson is said to be heading for a fourth guaranteed year with widespread interest. Under the circumstances, the Nats are surely not the only team to have made contact regarding Bryant. Jon Heyman of MLB Network noted yesterday on Twitter that the Braves and Phillies “could be a fit,” though it’s not clear whether that suggestive phrasing was indicative of dialogue between the organizations.

Gerrit Cole Seeking Massive Free Agent Contract

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9:40pm: The Angels and Boras “have had multiple ’ownership-level’ meetings” regarding Cole, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes.

6:53pm: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman is “coming with the offer for Cole today,” Heyman tweets. Bob Klapisch of the New York Times reported over the weekend (link below) that New York was preparing a seven-year, $245MM proposal.

5:28pm: Expectations are that Cole will indeed go past the $300MM mark, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who names nine years and $324MM as “not a bad over/under” for Cole’s next deal.

3:13pm: After securing a stunning, $245MM deal for Stephen Strasburg, Boras is on the hunt for an even larger-than-expected payday for Cole.

The goal is for a nine or ten-year pact, per Heyman (via Twitter). The $300MM level “is well within reach,” per the report, with even greater earnings “certainly possible” at this point.

It is believed that the bidding on Cole will come to a head in the coming days, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. That could set the stage for an old-fashioned Winter Meetings auction of the kind we haven’t seen in some time.

1:07pm: Free agent ace Gerrit Cole continues to be the center of attention as the game of baseball gathers up in San Diego for the Winter Meetings. We’ve yet to seen any seismic news with respect to his market situation, but there’s good reason to believe we’ll see significant developments in the coming days.

Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, informed teams that his client would like to consider offers beginning right away, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark writes (subscription link). The hurler “has been aggressively involved in setting the timing of these talks,” writes Stark, and it seems he’s not interested in a protracted courtship.

While Cole isn’t looking to drag this process out for the next several months, he’s not going to limit his options at the outset. While some geographical preference had been anticipated — Cole, as you’ve no doubt heard, has deep ties to California — it has become increasingly clear that he won’t restrict himself to one coast.

The word now is that Cole “will go with the best value/deal regardless of geography,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. That certainly leaves the door wide open for the Yankees, who are reportedly preparing to put a big number in front of Cole, but it’s far from a done deal. It’s rumored that the Angels, Dodgers, Phillies, and Rangers are also in the hunt and it remains to be seen which team will separate itself from the pack.

With big-budget organizations pushing hard for Cole, the industry chatter continues to buzz with the likelihood of a record-setting deal. The only question seems to be just how many contractual records will be knocked over and to what extent, as Stark writes. MLBTR predicted a $256MM contract entering the offseason.

Nationals Agree To Re-Sign Stephen Strasburg

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4:02pm: The Nationals have announced the agreement. The deal also comes with incentives, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Strasburg will earn $500K for an MVP win, $250K for a second-place finish, $350K for third, $100K for fourth and $75K for fifth. His Cy Young incentives are the same. He’d take home $250K for another World Series MVP. An All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger are each worth another $100K apiece.

1:48pm: The defending World Series champs and the game’s biggest agent have kicked off the Winter Meetings with a bang. The Nationals have reached agreement on a new contract with star righty Stephen Strasburg, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It’s a stunning seven-year deal that guarantees the Scott Boras client a whopping $245MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The sides will announce the deal this afternoon.

If there was ever any doubt as to the stability of the relationship between the Nats and the player once hailed as a franchise savior, this contract resolves it.  There’s a full no-trade clause, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. The contract does not come with options or opt-outs, per Tim Brown of Yahoo (via Twitter). About $80MM of the money is deferred, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds on Twitter, but they will include interest, per Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal (Twitter link).

We had come to expect a record-setting pitching deal this winter, but not from Strasburg. Top-of-the-market ace Gerrit Cole had long figured to top David Price for the biggest-ever rotation contract. He’s certain still to do so … quite likely by far, far more than had been anticipated. Strasburg has now blown the prior $217MM record out of the water. It also tops the average-annual value record held previously by Zack Greinke.

Way back when the 2019 season began, it was highly questionable whether Strasburg would even opt out of the four years and $100MM left on his prior extension with the Nationals. The former top overall draft choice ended up turning in a huge regular season followed by an iconic postseason, leading the Nats to a long-awaited World Series berth. It was everything that he and the organization dreamed of when he was selected first overall back in 2009 and then made a stirring debut in 2010. That he navigated a devastating Tommy John surgery, shutdown controversy, and various travails thereafter only made it all the more meaningful.

It has been a rollercoaster for the Nats faithful, which watched Bryce Harper head to the rival Phillies last winter. Strasburg is back … but what about Anthony Rendon, who was the third consecutive first-round pick that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo knocked out of the park. Ownership has said it doesn’t believe it can sign both Strasburg and Rendon. While that claim is worth questioning, it’s also quite a bit more understandable now that we know just how much the club had to pay to retain the former.

We’ll have to wait and see whether the Nats continue to pursue Rendon. But there’s an obvious impact on his market, which includes quite a few other major bidders. It’s also not difficult to see the connections between Strasburg’s signing and the still-developing rotation market. Pressure soared on the pitching market and the NL East arms race when the Phillies inked Zack Wheeler to a $118MM pact, snatching him from the Mets. With multiple teams pushing for Cole, and some viewing Strasburg as a major fallback target, the Nats acted decisively to bring back their ace. Having now secured larger-than-expected early strikes for Strasburg and Mike Moustakas, Boras can turn to ratcheting up the bidding on Cole, Rendon, and his other major open-market clients.

It’s quite something to see a contract of this magnitude for a 31-year-old pitcher just one winter removed from a spate of high-end hurlers inked extensions. Two aces in a similar age bracket — Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale — received much more modest guarantees. Those pitchers were obviously protecting against the risks of pitching in the majors, but they were also surely cognizant of a frigid free agent market. Now, it seems the thaw may be on … though how far it will extend remains to be seen.

To be sure, Strasburg not only ensconced himself in Nats lore but reaffirmed his top-shelf status in 2019. He topped two hundred innings for the second time in his career and worked to a 3.32 ERA that may actually have belied the true quality of his effort. With 10.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a 51.1% groundball rate, he showed all the skills that help a pitcher generate outs. Strasburg graded at a 3.25 FIP, 3.17 xFIP, and 3.49 SIERA in 2019. His 13.4% swinging-strike rate was a career high, though he’s now averaging about two ticks less on his fastball than he did for much of his career. And he showed yet more in a blistering run through the postseason, when he allowed just eight earned runs with a ridiculous 47:4 K/BB ratio over 36 1/3 innings, topping it all off with a World Series MVP.

The risks are equally obvious. Though he has avoided another devastating arm injury, Strasburg averaged 145 innings annually between 2015-18 and has had arm scares throughout that time. (He also carried a 3.27 ERA in that span.) He’s now under contract through his age-37 campaign.

While the Nats are obviously pleased with the output they’ve received to this point, having now twice inked Strasburg to massive contracts, they’re still banking on quite a bit more in the second half of his career. The club has now expanded its already huge commitment to its trio of high-end starters, with Strasburg now topping the big salaries promised to Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Washington’s 2020 prospects will be determined in no small part by the way in which these hurlers bounce back from a Herculean postseason effort.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Hire Bobby Wilson As Double-A Manager

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Former catcher Bobby Wilson signed on with the Rangers organization to manage their Double-A affiliate, per a club announcement. That also indicates that his playing career is coming to a close.

Wilson, 36, appeared in parts of ten MLB seasons but just passed the threshold of one thousand career plate appearances. He was only a .203/.258/.304 hitter in the majors … which only serves to amplify the degree to which he was regarded for his work as a backstop.

It was once an annual tradition around these parts to cover the many minor moves involving Wilson. Those days are over. But he’s likely to return to MLBTR’s pages before long as a managerial or coaching candidate in the majors. Wilson has long been posited as a future skipper and will launch right into that career path now that his playing career is over.

Upon breaking into the bigs in 2008 with the Angels, Wilson kicked off a five-year run in which he appeared consistently with one team. He went on a journeyman run thereafter, spending time in the majors with the Rangers, Rays, Tigers, Twins, and Diamondbacks in addition to minor-league stints with the Yankees and Dodgers.

Reds Outright R.J. Alaniz

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The Reds have outrighted right-hander R.J. Alaniz after he cleared waivers, per a club announcement. That leaves a pair of 40-man openings to work with during this week’s Winter Meetings,

Alaniz, claimed off waivers in May, made his first dozen MLB appearances in 2019. He gave up more earned runs (16) than innings pitched (15 2/3), so obviously has some proving left to do before he’s given his next opportunity.

Unsurprisingly, Alaniz showed better during his time in the upper minors. He maintained 12.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over 40 1/3 Triple-A frames during the ’19 campaign. Alaniz carries a 3.79 ERA over 128 1/3 lifetime innings at the highest level of the minors.

Josh Donaldson Increasingly Seen As Candidate For 4-Year Deal

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Veteran third bagger Josh Donaldson is an unsurprisingly popular target through this stage of the market development. The interest has been so robust that he may even secure a four-year guarantee. We’ve seen the suggestion bandied about in recent days, but MLB.com’s Mark Bowman now reports (via Twitter) that it’s becoming a “growing expectation” that Donaldson will get the fourth campaign.

That length of contract wouldn’t be surprising at all for a player of Donaldson’s stature … were it not for the fact that he just turned 34 yesterday. Ben Zobrist did secure a four-year term a few years back, but more recent free agents have faced greater headwinds in securing promised cash into their late-thirties. And Donaldson seems all but certain to command a much loftier annual salary than Zobrist did.

As it turns out, though, interest in Donaldson is quite robust. While numerous clubs are still grappling over top third baseman Anthony Rendon, only one will get him. Donaldson is far senior to Rendon but was even better at his peak. While the former is no longer a perennial MVP candidate, he easily outperformed the one-year, $23MM bounceback contract he took last season with the Braves and seems a good bet to deliver big production for years to come.

Donaldson hit a ton in his 659 plate appearances in 2019, turning in a .259/.379/.521 slash with 37 homers. He did all that while providing value in the field, with Defensive Runs Saved taking a particularly bullish view. As important was the fact that he played that extensively at all. Donaldson had appeared in 165 contests over the prior two seasons but went the distance in 2019.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Donaldson would secure a $75MM guarantee over three seasons. If he’s able to get that fourth guaranteed year, it may be at a somewhat lesser single-season rate of pay. But it’s also now conceivable he could threaten nine figures in his next contract.

Waiver Claims: Kinley, Rodriguez, Diplan

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A spate of waiver claims have hit the wire this afternoon …

  • The Rockies claimed righty Tyler Kinley from the Marlins. Righty Joe Harvey was designated for assignment to create 40-man space in Colorado. Kinley, a 28-year-old righty, carried an ugly 46:36 K/BB ratio in 49 1/3 MLB frames last year. But he also managed a 3.65 ERA on the year, generated a 12.9% swinging strike rate, and carried a mid-nineties heater. He was a Rule 5 pick by the Twins in 2018, so it’s clear that multiple clubs are intrigued by his raw potential. He has a pair of minor league options remaining, so he’s a sensible and affordable depth option for the Rockies, who opened the season by proclaiming a lack of payroll flexibility.
  • The Brewers announced that they claimed infielder Ronny Rodriguez from the Tigers. The 27-year-old has struggled in two seasons with the Detroit organization, showing some power and defensive versatility but demonstrating some of the worst on-base skills in the league. Through an even 500 plate appearances at the MLB level, Rodriguez is a .221/.254/.396 batting line. He still has multiple option years remaining, so he can be shuttled between Triple-A and the Majors in both 2020 and 2021.
  • Also departing the Tigers is right-hander Marcos Diplan, who was claimed by the Orioles, per a team announcement. He appeared in 38 games between the Double-A affiliates for the Twins and Brewers, totaling 68 2/3 innings of 4.85 ERA ball with 9.6 K/9 against 5.8 BB/9. Diplan was ranked among the Brewers’ 10 to 20 best prospects back in 2017 but has seen his stock dip in recent seasons as he’s begun to bounce around the waiver circuit. Notably, Diplan was has now been claimed by the Tigers and Orioles this winter — the teams with the No. 1 and No. 2 waiver priorities. He has a minor league option remaining.

Brewers Re-Sign Alex Claudio

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The Brewers announced today that they have re-signed lefty Alex Claudio to a one-year deal. The MDR Sports Management client was non-tendered by Milwaukee last week but will return on a lesser deal than the projected $2.2MM he’d been projected to earn. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that he’ll earn $1.75MM on the new arrangement. Claudio will remain arbitration-eligible next winter as well.

Claudio, 28 next month, was acquired from the Rangers last winter in a trade that sent a Competitive Balance draft selection from Milwaukee to Texas. He was used largely as a specialist, as evidenced by totaling 62 innings despite appearing in a league-leading 83 games. Claudio notched a 4.06 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a strong 57.9 percent ground-ball rate last season, holding opposing left-handed hitters to a .218/.301/.378 line through 137 plate appearances.

Claudio has consistently overwhelmed opposing lefties in his career, limiting them to a miserable .201/.245/.306 slash, but right-handers have typically had little trouble figuring him out. That was the case again in 2019 (.274/.357/.469), and it’ll be perhaps even more problematic for him next year when the league is expected to adopt a new rule that requires a pitcher to either face a minimum of three batters or finish an inning. Milwaukee was able to allow Claudio to face more left-handed batters than right-handed batters this past year (137 to 130), but that’s unlikely to be the case in 2020.

Adam Jones Weighing Move To Japan

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Veteran outfielder Adam Jones may be headed for a late-career stint in Japan. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, via Twitter, Jones is in talks with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Orix Buffaloes on a contract.

Notably, the concept under consideration is a multi-year arrangement. That’s a rarity for players contemplating a westward crossing of the Pacific, though NPB organizations have certainly agreed to multi-year pacts to retain players.

Jones, 34, would become one of the biggest MLB stars to play in Japan if he decides to make the move. Kevin Youkilis was another major player who headed to the NPB to cap off a memorable career, though his experience did not go as hoped and he played in only 21 games there before retiring.

It’s tough to imagine that Jones is receiving truly satisfactory interest stateside. The longtime Orioles star ended up landing a $3MM deal with the Diamondbacks last year after languishing on the market. he appeared in 137 games and received 528 plate appearances in Arizona, but struggled to a .260/.313/.414 batting line.

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