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Red Sox Haven’t Made “A Competitive Offer” To Xander Bogaerts

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Such varied teams as the Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, Phillies, and Cubs have all been linked to Xander Bogaerts so far this winter, and the list of suitors could stretch even further beyond these teams.  Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports that between eight and 11 teams have shown interest in Bogaerts, and yet the Red Sox weren’t “positioned in that group as of Sunday afternoon.”  According to two sources, Bogaerts’ former team hasn’t yet made “a competitive offer” to re-sign.

This relative lack of interest on Boston’s part is perhaps a little surprising, given how chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has said on multiple occasions that retaining Bogaerts is one of the team’s top priorities.  However, as Abraham notes, there has been plenty of indications that the Red Sox haven’t been entirely committed to keeping the All-Star, ranging from their lowball extension offer last spring to the team’s signing of Trevor Story last offseason as a seemingly backup plan for shortstop if Bogaerts departed.

While a front office can obviously work on multiple things at the same time, it is perhaps also telling that the Sox have largely been focused on other roster areas thus far in the offseason.  The Red Sox made a big push to sign Jose Abreu before Abreu landed in Houston, and are among the many teams interested in Mitch Haniger.  Boston is also exploring a wide range of pitching options for the rotation and bullpen, and the Sox have already made two notable additions in relievers Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez.  This isn’t to say that the Red Sox couldn’t make an offer to Bogaerts at any time, but it would seemingly have to be a very substantial offer to outpace the several other teams who have shown a lot more direct interest.

There hasn’t been much indication that the Sox could pivot to one of the other star free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson) rather than Bogaerts, and the team might just use some combination of Story, Enrique Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Jeter Downs, and the newly-acquired Hoy Park to handle the two middle infield positions.  Long-term, Marcelo Mayer is Boston’s shortstop of the future, and prospect Ceddanne Rafaela could also be a factor at shortstop or other positions after a breakout 2022 season at high-A and Double-A ball.

Bogaerts rejected Boston’s qualifying offer, and since the Red Sox exceeded the luxury tax in 2022, their compensatory pick (if Bogaerts signed elsewhere) would fall only after the fourth round of the 2023 draft.  It wouldn’t make for much of a consolation prize for one of the best players in recent franchise history, especially since exceeding the tax threshold didn’t even result in a winning record for the 2022 Red Sox.

Astros Interested In Andrew Benintendi

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Left field is something of a question mark for the Astros, but the team might be looking to fill the position with a former Gold Glover.  Houston has had some discussions with free agent Andrew Benintendi, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.

With Jose Abreu already acquired and Rafael Montero re-signed, adding Benintendi would be the Astros’ latest step towards fortifying their roster for another World Series bid.  The team was already known to be looking for a left-handed hitting corner outfielder, to add both a bit more balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and to provide more assurance in left field.  Should an everyday player like Benintendi be signed, Jake Meyers would likely split time with Chas McCormick in center field, while Yordan Alvarez might see the occasional game in left field but would continue to primarily work as the designated hitter.

Benintendi wouldn’t come cheap, as MLBTR projects the 28-year-old to land a four-year, $54MM deal.  This price point factors in Benintendi’s relatively young age as he enters the free agent market, as well as a skillset that makes him a pretty safe bet to be a productive (if not necessarily a star) player going forward.

Being “only” a productive player seems like a respectable middle ground for Benintendi, who looked like a potential superstar early in his career with the Red Sox but then almost like a lost cause in the wake of a brutal 2020 season.  Benintendi rebounded with solid showings with the Royals and Yankees the last two seasons, moving to New York at the trade deadline before his season was ended by hamate bone surgery in early September.

This isn’t to say that Bentenindi might not yet have another breakout ahead of him, especially if he can turn around his drastic power dropoff in 2022.  Even without much pop, Benintendi still had a 122 wRC+ and a .304/.373/.399 slash line over 521 plate appearances last season.  A .352 BABIP aided that production, but Benintendi did an excellent job of taking walks, avoiding strikeouts, and putting the ball in play.  Combining that offensive profile with above-average defense and solid baserunning made for a 2.8 fWAR season for Benintendi in 2022, the second-highest fWAR total of his seven MLB seasons.

The Astros have just under $198MM in luxury tax commitments for 2023, so if Benintendi was signed to something in the range of that projected $13.5MM average annual value, Houston would still have plenty of room under the $233MM tax threshold to make further moves.  Owner Jim Crane recently said that the Astros “certainly have the ability to go at or over” the threshold, and spending on multiple players (Abreu, and perhaps at least one of Benintendi or Willson Contreras) might be more of a preferable strategy than splurging on a short-term, high-AAV deal on Justin Verlander.

Orioles Among 8-9 Teams Interested In Carlos Rodon

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Roughly eight or nine teams are known to have interest in Carlos Rodon, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links).  Many of the suitors are already known, as past reports have indicated the Mets, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Dodgers, and Rangers have all checked in on Rodon’s market at different points this offseason.  However, Heyman also lists the Orioles as a new name in the mix for the left-hander’s services.

Baltimore has already made one notable rotation move in signing Kyle Gibson to a one-year deal earlier today.  Needless to say, signing Rodon would take a much heftier financial commitment, and the first major acquisition of the Orioles’ post-rebuild era.  Though past reports suggested that the O’s were wary of shopping at the very top of the pitching market, Rodon might represent something of a bridge between the “top tier” and “secondary tier,” depending on how one would define such players.

Entering his age-30 season, Rodon is considerably younger than either Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom, so Rodon might make more sense for a young Baltimore team that appears to be just entering its competitive window.  As Orioles GM Mike Elias noted last month, the club has “got a lot of interesting starters.  But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters.” 

Baltimore hopes at least one or two of their young arms can eventually develop into being ace-level pitchers, but waiting on that development might not be too helpful for a team that wants to win in 2023.  Gibson has had some quality seasons and was an All-Star just in 2021, but he struggled in his time with the Phillies, and he is more of a veteran innings-eater than a true frontline pitcher.

In other Rodon news, Heyman writes that Texas is still in on the southpaw even after already signing deGrom to a five-year, $185MM deal yesterday.  As expected, the Rangers have put a heavy emphasis on rotation upgrades this winter, between signing deGrom, re-signing Martin Perez, and acquiring Jake Odorizzi from the Braves.  That trio joins Jon Gray and Dane Dunning in the projected starting five, but the Rangers have been so aggressive over the last two offseasons that it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see them also sign Rodon.  In this case, one of Dunning or Odorizzi could become a depth starter or swingman, or potentially even a trade chip.

Both the Mets and Yankees have been linked to Rodon and Verlander, with Heyman tweeting that the two New York teams seem to have differing top choices.  Rodon seems to be the Yankees’ chief target, while Verlander seems like the Mets’ preferred option.

Angels Sign Cesar Valdez To Minor League Contract

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The Angels have signed right-hander Cesar Valdez to a minor league deal, ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (Twitter link).  Valdez receives an invitation to the Angels’ big league Spring Training camp, and he will receive a guaranteed $950K if he makes the active roster.

The veteran righty is back in Anaheim after also signing a minors deal with the Halos last offseason.  Valdez only made a single appearance at the MLB level, and was then designated for assignment and subsequently outrighted off the 40-man roster.  Pitching much of the season at Triple-A Salt Lake, Valdez had a 3.94 ERA, 21% strikeout rate, and a very strong 3.8% walk rate over 146 1/3 innings, all as a starter.

Though Valdez just got onto that one game with the Angels, it was enough to make it five career MLB seasons for the 37-year-old.  He made his debut way back in 2010 with 20 innings for the Diamondbacks, next surfaced in the majors in 2017 with the A’s and Blue Jays, and then didn’t appear in the big leagues again until working out of the Orioles’ bullpen in 2020.

Valdez’s odd career arc (that also includes stops in the Mexican League and the Chinese Professional Baseball League) has seen him move back and forth several times between starter and relief roles, but it would appear he’ll head to the Angels’ camp as rotation depth.  Never much of a strikeout pitcher throughout his career, Valdez has relied on grounders to generate outs, and he has a 49.1% groundball rate over his 112 career innings at the Major League level.

Latest On Cardinals’ Free Agent Targets

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The Cardinals have yet to have much engagement with the offseason’s top-tier free agents, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  This relates to both starting pitchers and position players, as in regards to the top of the shortstop market, the Cards “have remained on the outskirts of the shortstop discussions, staying aware but not plunging in,” Goold writes.

This isn’t to say the the Cardinals aren’t active, as the team is focusing on its need behind the plate.  Cards officials will be meeting with the agents for Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez, and such other free agent catchers as Omar Narvaez and Mike Zunino have also been explored by the team, as well as trade candidates like the Athletics’ Sean Murphy or any of the Blue Jays’ three backstops.

Catcher is the most pressing need for the Cardinals, so it isn’t surprising that the team might be looking to get its catching situation settled before moving onto other targets.  With Adam Wainwright re-sigining and Nolan Arenado passing on his opt-out clause, St. Louis had two major bits of business settled before the offseason even officially began, perhaps giving the team some extra flexibility to proceed a bit more slowly on other matters.

Signing Contreras would certainly count as a headline-grabbing move, as the longtime Cubs catcher is projected to land a four-year, $84MM deal, and would also cost draft pick compensation since he rejected Chicago’s qualifying offer.  $84MM would count as the second-biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent, behind only Matt Holliday’s $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason.  That deal was also a re-signing, as Holliday had become a familiar quantity to the Cardinals after spending the last two-plus months of the 2009 season in a St. Louis uniform.

In short, making a big free agent splash usually isn’t the preferred strategy of Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.  This obviously doesn’t rule out Contreras altogether, but it might make St. Louis more open to trade talks with the A’s or Jays in the catching search.  That said, signing Contreras for just money and a draft pick might be preferable to giving up a big trade package for Murphy, Alejandro Kirk, or Gabriel Moreno.

On the pitching side, the Cardinals are known to be looking at re-signing with Jose Quintana.  For the bullpen, the Cards are targeting high-strikeout relievers — as Goold notes, the team is looking to add more swing-and-miss after finishing near the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage.  St. Louis is looking at pitching options both in North America and overseas.

Cubs Interested In Dansby Swanson

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The Cubs are among the teams with interest in shortstop Dansby Swanson, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link).  Chicago has been known to have interest in the free agent shortstop market, though Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts were the shortstops more linked to the Cubs.

Still, with so many other teams keen on landing a top-tier shortstop, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs have at least considered every member of the “big four” — Swanson, Bogaerts, Correa, and Trea Turner.  Bogaerts and Correa have stood out from the pack since the Cubs have reportedly had interest in Correa for years, while Bogaerts’ ties to Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer string back to Hoyer’s days in the Red Sox organization.

That said, Swanson naturally has plenty of appeal to any team looking for an upgrade at shortstop.  The former first overall pick is coming off the best of his seven MLB seasons, as Swanson had a career-high 6.4 fWAR over 696 plate appearances and the full 162 games with the Braves.  Swanson’s contributions came on both offense (.277/.329/.447 with 25 homers and 18 steals) and defense, with his first career Gold Glove and a range of above-average marks from public defensive metrics.

Swanson turns 29 in February, so he is still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that might have a few too many roster holes to be a full-fledged contender in 2023, though it depends on how aggressive Chicago plans to be this winter.  Like Bogaerts and Turner, Swanson comes at the extra price of draft pick compensation, since all of these three shortstops rejected a qualifying offer (Correa was ineligible for a QO after receiving one last winter).  Swanson is the second-youngest of the big four shortstops, though he is generally seen as the member of the group who has the smallest price tag, comparatively speaking.  MLBTR projected him for a seven-year, $154MM deal, which still ranks fifth on our top 50 free agents list — Swanson was ranked behind only Aaron Judge and the other three shortstops.

It stands to reason that pretty much every team (i.e. the Phillies, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Red Sox) looking into any of the top shortstops might have some interest in other members of the group, a la the Cubs.  That said, the Braves have been the only team known to have a direct interest in Swanson himself, and if Swanson did sign elsewhere, Atlanta isn’t likely to look to Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts as a replacement.

Royals Hire Zach Bove As Assistant Pitching Coach

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Zach Bove is the latest new face on the Royals’ coaching staff, as Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo (Twitter link) reports that Bove is leaving the Twins’ staff to become Kansas City’s new assistant pitching coach.  Bove has been in Minnesota for the last four seasons, working in the assistant pitching coordinator role in 2022.

It marks another Royals hire from inside the AL Central, as K.C. just named Brian Sweeney (formerly the Guardians’ bullpen coach) as the team’s new pitching coach earlier this week.  Beyond these hirings, the Royals also named Matt Quatraro as their new manager and Paul Hoover is the new bench coach, with both men coming from the Rays organization.  Additionally, longtime former Giants coach José Alguacil is coming aboard as the Royals’ new infield coach.

Bove is one of several pitching coaches and coordinators around baseball who came to the majors from the college ranks, as Bove was a pitching coach at the College of Central Florida for seven years before he joined the Twins.  With more of a new-school, analytical approach, Bove brings some different perspectives towards the Royals’ stated goal of helping bring their younger pitchers along at the MLB level.  Brady Singer pitched well in 2022, but with Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar all struggling, the Royals haven’t gotten nearly the expected results from the pitchers they thought would be the backbone of the team’s latest rebuild.

Aaron Judge “Increasingly Likely” To Land A Nine-Year Contract

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It seems as though teams interested in signing Aaron Judge will have to commit to the slugger for the rest of his 30’s, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that “it appears increasingly likely” that Judge will land nine guaranteed years in his next contract.

It isn’t known if Judge is necessarily prioritizing contract length or a record-setting average annual value, but the reigning MVP might very well have the leverage for both.  Mike Trout’s current deal with the Angels is the benchmark ($36MM) in terms of average annual value for position players, so if Judge was looking to top Trout’s record, it would take nine years and more than $324MM.

That isn’t far off MLBTR’s projection of an eight-year, $332MM deal for Judge, which works out to a $41.5MM AAV.  If Judge is only looking to top Trout’s average salary whatsoever (rather than by a $5.5MM amount), technically a $332MM deal over nine years would do it.  But, it could be that Judge wants to move the goalposts significantly forward for future star free agents.

Going into a ninth guaranteed season (which would be Judge’s age-39 year) might not have much appeal to teams if they’re not getting much or any break on the AAV.  That said, Judge is perhaps a unique enough case that any of his big-market suitors might not mind the extra year — if a team is already willing to pay Judge in the $36MM range for his age-38 season, the ninth year might be seen as the cost of doing business.

If a ninth guaranteed season is now the going rate to sign Judge, it could put the Dodgers out of the running. “The Dodgers are believed to want Judge only on a short-term, high-dollar deal,” Rosenthal writes, which matches the club’s general strategy in pursuing any free agents.  This isn’t to say that L.A. doesn’t abandon that strategy in certain circumstances, as it was just last winter that Freddie Freeman (heading into his age-32 season) was inked a six-year, $162MM deal.  But, with Judge in position to at least double Freeman’s total salary, he might not be a fit for a Dodger team that could devote its resources towards acquiring other star players.

The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are the teams publicly linked to Judge’s market, and Rosenthal reports that some other teams have at least checked in on Judge, though it isn’t known if any of these mystery suitors are making a serious push.  Last week, reports suggested that New York had made Judge an offer in the range of eight years and $300MM, and the Yankees weren’t viewing that as a final offer.  Adding a ninth guaranteed season at the same AAV would result in a nine-year, $337.5MM offer.

Shaun Anderson Signs With KBO’s Kia Tigers

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NOVEMBER 29: The Tigers have finalized an agreement with Anderson on a one-year deal that guarantees him $700K (h/t to Ji-heon Bae). He’ll receive a $100K signing bonus on top of a $600K salary, and the deal contains $300K in potential incentives. Anderson is represented by Wasserman.

NOVEMBER 26: The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization are in talks with free agent right-hander Shaun Anderson, according to Ji-heon Bae of Sports Chunchu (hat tip to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz).

The 28-year-old Anderson has pitched in the last four Major League seasons, though his participation in the 2022 campaign was limited to a single inning of work with the Blue Jays.  The remainder of Anderson’s year was spent at Triple-A Buffalo, where he posted a 3.58 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate over 88 innings.  Anderson started 15 of 36 appearances, though some of those “starts” were as an opener.

Originally a third-round pick for the Red Sox in the 2016 draft, Anderson has bounced around quite a bit during his pro career, and he has already pitched for five different teams over his four MLB seasons.  After spending the 2019-20 seasons with the Giants, Anderson took the mound for the Twins, Orioles, and Padres in 2021, before his one-game cup of coffee with Toronto last year.  The right-hander was also briefly part of the Rangers organization for some of the 2021 campaign.

Anderson hasn’t had much success at the MLB level, posting a 5.84 ERA over 135 2/3 career innings.  He has a more solid track record in the minors (3.72 ERA in 416 2/3 frames) but he has never been a big strikeout pitcher, and Anderson’s grounder rates have also tailed off after topping the 50% threshold earlier in his career.

Multi-inning relief work might have been Anderson’s best way of finding a niche to stay on a big league roster, but he’ll now head to South Korea to try and revive his fortunes as a starting pitcher.  Former Major Leaguers Thomas Pannone and Sean Nolin pitched with the Kia Tigers in 2022, but Bae writes that the Tigers might not retain either hurler as they look to overhaul their rotation.

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