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NPB’s Yokohama BayStars To Sign J.B. Wendelken

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The Yokohama BayStars have signed right-hander J.B. Wendelken, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The contract is a one-year deal with an option for 2024, and Wendelken can earn up to $3.05MM, including incentives.

Wendleken elected free agency after the season, ending a stint with the Diamondbacks that began in August 2021 when Arizona claimed him off waivers from the A’s.  The Diamondbacks agreed to an arbitration-avoiding one-year, $835K deal with Wendelken last winter, but he posted only a 5.29 ERA over 29 innings in 2022.  Arizona designated the righty for assignment in July and then outrighted him off the 40-man roster, with Wendelken then spending the remainder of the season at Triple-A Reno.

Beginning his career in Oakland, Wendelken had a solid 2.30 ERA over 74 1/3 relief innings from 2018-20, though his 3.74 SIERA was perhaps more reflective of his overall work.  Wendelken benefited from a very low .218 BABIP in those three seasons, but his fortune changed with a .310 BABIP in 2021 and a dropoff in his strikeout rate.  The right-hander has only a 19% strikeout rate and a unimpressive 11.4% walk rate over 72 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 season, as well as a 4.71 ERA.

With this recent performance, Wendelken might have been hard-pressed to find anything beyond than a minor league deal with an MLB team this winter, so he has instead opted for some guaranteed money and a fresh start in Japan.  Wendelken’s Triple-A numbers are worth noting, as he had a strong 2.63 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate over the small sample size of 24 innings with Reno.  This provides some hope that Wendelken can perhaps get on track with the BayStars, and either continue in NPB or perhaps eventually explore a return to North American baseball.

Marlins To Hire Brant Brown As Hitting Coach

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The Marlins have hired Brant Brown as their new hitting coach, as per SportsGrid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link).  Brown was one of the Dodgers’ two hitting coaches, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported earlier today that Miami was looking at Brown as the newest member of its staff.

Under new manager Skip Schumaker, the Marlins’ coaching staff will naturally look quite different in 2023.  Brown replaces Marcus Thames (who was hired by the Angels) in the hitting coach position, while Luis Urueta is the new bench coach, Jon Jay is the new first base coach, Jody Reed is the new third base coach, and Rod Barajas is joining the staff as a quality assurance coach.  Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. is staying put, after signing a new multi-year deal back in October.

This isn’t Brown’s first time in a Marlins uniform, as he played 41 games for the Fish back in 2000.  Brown played at the MLB level with the Marlins, Pirates, and (mostly) Cubs over five seasons, and then began his coaching career in 2007.  After a decade as a coach in the Rangers’ and Mariners’ farm system, Brown’s first MLB coaching assignment came prior to the 2018 season, when he joined the Dodgers as an assistant hitting coach.  While some of the specifics of Brown’s title have changed, he and Robert Van Scoyoc have shared the hitting coach duties since 2019.

A powerful and versatile lineup has been one of the keys to the Dodgers’ recent success, but the 51-year-old Brown will now face a new challenge in trying to jumpstart Miami’s lineup.  The Marlins have one of baseball’s more enviable cores of young pitching, yet the team has been unable to pair that pitching with even average offense.  The additions of Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, Jacob Stallings, and Joey Wendle last offseason didn’t help matters, and the Marlins are now hoping to have more of a focus on speed and contact hitting heading into 2023.

It remains to be seen how the Dodgers will replace Brown on the coaching staff, but Rosenthal cites assistant coach Aaron Bates as a logical candidate for a promotion, if L.A. sticks to the dual-hitting coach approach.  Bates has been the Dodgers’ assistant hitting coach for the last four seasons, and previously worked as a coach and coordinator from 2015-18 in the Dodgers’ minor league system.

Pitching Notes: Brash, Lugo, Red Sox, Raley

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Matt Brash’s debut in the majors resulted in a 4.44 ERA over 50 2/3 innings, with pronounced splits as a starter (7.65 ERA) and as a reliever (2.35), since returning from a minor league demotion in a relief role worked wonders for Brash’s effectiveness.  Unsurprisingly, “Brash has generated a ton of [trade] interest after his rookie season,” Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes, “but it would take a lot” for the Mariners to consider moving the 24-year-old.  If anything, the M’s have faith that Brash could still be part of a rotation, given the club’s plan to stretch him out for Spring Training.

Brash’s 14.9% walk rate was the third-highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched in 2022, and he also allowed a lot of hard contact.  On the plus side, the hard-throwing Brash had an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate, and elite curveball spin to go along with excellent whiff and barrel rates.  There’s a lot to like about a young pitcher who still has only 179 1/3 combined innings on his record at the Major and minor league levels, and rival teams are naturally seeing if the win-now Mariners might be open to moving a younger pitcher for a more established MLB-level player.  Nothing can truly be ruled out given the aggressiveness of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, yet it’s probably likelier that one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen are dealt from the Mariners’ pitching mix.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • Back on November 14, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported that the Mets weren’t one of the many teams who had checked in with free agent righty Seth Lugo.  Almost two weeks later, the two sides still haven’t been in touch, and “the Mets do not view Lugo as a starter,” Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  Lugo is reportedly open to signing as either a starter or as a reliever, and at least some of the other suitors have some interest in Lugo’s potential as a rotation piece.  Speculatively, this could translate to at least an incentive-heavy contract for Lugo, with more bonus money available if he ends up making more starts than relief appearances.  It could be that the Mets simply don’t value Lugo at this price, and are ready to look elsewhere in their search for bullpen help.
  • The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.  Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox).  Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter.  Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts.

Mariners, Phillies, Yankees, Explored Deadline Trade Involving Marco Gonzales, Joey Gallo

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Prior to the August 2 trade deadline, the Mariners, Phillies, and Yankees had some negotiations about a potential three-team swap, according to The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish.  Left-hander Marco Gonzales would’ve headed to Philadelphia and outfielder Joey Gallo “possibly” would’ve been dealt to the Mariners, though it isn’t known what player or players New York would’ve acquired in this proposed deal.

As it turned out, the Yankees instead moved Gallo to the Dodgers for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter, with Los Angeles absorbing the roughly $3.7MM remaining on Gallo’s 2022 salary at the time of the deadline.  The Phillies added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation rather than Gonzales, who stayed put in the Pacific Northwest.  Rather than move Gonzales or any other starters, the Mariners instead added to their rotation depth with a blockbuster trade to pry Luis Castillo away from the Reds.

Teams routinely discuss all manner of trades in the days and months prior to deadline day, and it isn’t known if this particular three-team deal (or even some permutation of a deal) was anywhere close to becoming a reality.  However, this floated trade certainly carries plenty of “what if?” consideration given that the three connected teams all made deep playoff runs, with the Phillies in particular reaching the World Series.  Also, given that Gallo is a free agent and Gonzales is still drawing trade interest, it’s worth wondering if those past summer trade talks could influence some moves yet to come this winter.

Let’s begin with Gallo, who struggled through a rough 2022 season but still had some value for a Mariners team that was looking for outfield depth.  In the lead-up to the deadline, Julio Rodriguez was battling wrist problems and Mitch Haniger was still on the 60-day injured list recovering from a high ankle sprain.  Utility options Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty were also banged up, and the M’s weren’t satisfied with what Jesse Winker or Jarred Kelenic were bringing to the table.  As Divish noted both in this piece and back in July, the M’s were actually exploring trading either Winker or Kelenic.

The two remain trade candidates in the offseason, and the Mariners are still looking for outfield help in general.  However, the M’s have already landed one new everyday corner outfielder in Teoscar Hernandez, and dealt Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks in another trade, so the Seattle outfield picture is quite different than it was back in July and early August.  It isn’t out of the question that the M’s could still make a play to land Gallo, though he might be more of a backup plan if such higher-tier free agents (i.e. Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi) couldn’t be signed.  Winker, Kelenic, and Taylor Trammell are all left-handed hitters, so it could also be possible Seattle would trade from this surplus before looking into signing Gallo.

Pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park might not be the ideal spot for a power-centric player like Gallo to rebuild his value, and the slugger has only a .190/275/.372 slash line over 153 plate appearances at T-Mobile as a visiting player.  That said, Gallo had a 4.2 fWAR season as recently as 2021, and could regain some of his old form simply with another change of scenery after his lackluster showings in New York and Los Angeles.

It was an odd season for Gallo, who had some of the game’s best walk, hard-hit ball, and barrel rates.  He also had a 39.8% strikeout rate (far and away the worst of any player with at least 400 plate appearances), as Gallo’s “three true outcomes” approach was carried to absurd extremes.  Unfortunately for Gallo, the third outcome wasn’t quite as extreme, as he hit 19 homers in 401 PA and his .197 Isolated Power metric was well below the .283 career IP he posted from 2015-21.

Gallo struggled whether or not he faced defensive shifts in 2022, and he actually had a better wOBA against the shift than without facing shifts (.350 to .323) in 2021.  That said, the new rules limiting the use of shifts might have at least some impact on improving Gallo’s numbers, given opposing teams regularly deployed the shift against Gallo over 90% of the time.

There has been a lot of speculation about whether or not Seattle could trade at least one of Gonzales or Chris Flexen this winter, since the M’s have been connected to Kodai Senga and Matt Brash is also on hand as a potential fifth starter.  The rest of the rotation is set, with Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby forming an impressive quartet of arms.  Gonzales (who turns 31 in February) is over two years older than Flexen, and is more expensive — Gonzales is owed $6.5MM in 2023 and $12MM in 2024, while Flexen is only under contract through the 2023 season on an $8MM salary.

Given Gonzales’ longer-term contract, the Phillies seemingly had interest in the left-hander as more than just a rental player, so it would stand to reason that he might still be on their radar heading into 2023.  With Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson hitting free agency, the Phillies could use a durable veteran like Gonzales to reinforce the back end of their rotation.

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are Philadelphia’s two aces, Ranger Suarez has emerged as a solid starter, and the inexperienced Bailey Falter and Michael Plassmeyer are penciled into the final two rotation spots at the moment.  Top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel could both enter the Major League picture before 2023 is out, but with the Phillies in clear win-now mode, relying on Falter, Plassmeyer, Painter, and Abel for as many as two rotation spots probably isn’t ideal.  It wouldn’t even be a shock to see the Phils acquire one big-ticket arm to join Nola and Wheeler at the front of the rotation, and then a more moderately-priced hurler like Gonzales as a fifth starter.

Dodgers “Have Shown Interest” In Willy Adames

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The Dodgers “have shown interest” in Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio reports.  The depth of the interest isn’t known, though it does reflect how Los Angeles is keeping tabs on the shortstop market beyond incumbent free agent Trea Turner.

Of course, there also isn’t any guarantee that the Brewers are even open to trading Adames, given how the club has had at least some interest in retaining the slugger on a long-term extension.  However, such an extension would be quite costly for the Brew Crew, and for a lower-payroll team, trading Adames for a bounty of younger players might be a more efficient way for Milwaukee to reload its roster.  The Dodgers have one of the sport’s better farm system, and could offer the Brewers some prospects who could contribute at the MLB level as early as 2023.

Adames has two years of arbitration control remaining, and he is projected to earn $9.2MM in 2023.  Another good season would push his 2024 price tag up into the $13MM range, unless an extension was worked out to overwrite what Adames might earn in his final arb-eligible year.  Since Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are also going to be free agents after the 2024 campaign, it seems likely that the Brewers will be moving at least one of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames before they hit the open market, barring a huge change to their spending approach.

In fact, the Brewers have already increased spending in recent years, as their Opening Day payroll of just under $132MM was the largest in club history.  However, with Christian Yelich’s salary taking up a big chunk of that payroll, the Brewers have largely stuck to their usual tactic of moving on from certain players once their arbitration numbers get too high.  For recent examples, Milwaukee just traded Hunter Renfroe to the Angels earlier this week, and Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres just prior to the August trade deadline.

As former president of baseball operations David Stearns noted in a statement announcing the Hader deal, “this mix of present Major League talent and high-level prospects furthers our aim to get as many bites of the apple as possible and, ultimately, to bring a World Series to Milwaukee….We also recognize that to give our organization the best chance for sustained competitiveness, to avoid the extended down periods that so many organizations experience, we must make decisions that are not easy.”

Moving Adames could be a similarly tough decision for the Brewers and GM Matt Arnold, who is now the top decision-maker in Milwaukee’s front office.  On the one hand, the Brew Crew are surely hopeful of returning to contention in 2023, and having Adames in the lineup (as well as Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation) would give the team a clearer “bite of the apple,” so to speak.  On the flip side, it could be argued that Adames might be just about at the peak of his trade value this offseason, and given how the Hader deal left several Brewers players openly disappointed at the club’s direction, the front office might want to avoid another midseason trade of a key player if the Brewers are anywhere close to contention.

Though the Dodgers will keep talking to Turner’s camp, Toribio feels that “the more realistic option…is that the Dodgers don’t sign any of the top four free-agent shortstops,” referring to Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson.  This would either put Gavin Lux in line for the everyday shortstop job in 2023, or L.A. could address the shortstop position via trade, whether for Adames or another player.

Since Adames is only controlled through 2024, he might not necessarily be a longer-term answer either in Los Angeles, though he should still have some prime years remaining since he only turned 27 in September.  The Dodgers could conceivably look into extending Adames themselves, or perhaps instead use him as something of a high-level placeholder.  That would give L.A. time to decide on Lux’s ideal role, or more time to evaluate whether or not shortstop prospects Jacob Amaya or Eddys Leonard can be MLB-caliber players.

Rays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

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In a market thin on center field help, Brandon Nimmo has naturally drawn a lot of interest on the free agent market.  Many of baseball’s bigger spenders have been linked to the former Mets standout, but according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the low-payroll Rays are also a rather surprising suitor for Nimmo’s services.

MLBTR projected Nimmo for a five-year, $110MM deal this winter, which would represent far and away the largest contract the Rays have even given to a free agent.  It would also represent the franchise’s second-largest expenditure on any contract, behind only Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension.  Since Nimmo rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer, Tampa Bay would also have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft as compensation for signing the outfielder — no small penalty for a club that relies on building from within.

In short, it would count as a real stunner if the Rays won the bidding for one of the winter’s most sought-after free agents.  However, it is worth noting that we’re only about a year removed from the Rays’ reported offer to Freddie Freeman, another big-ticket name on the open market.  Between the Freeman offer and the Franco extension, there have been some hints out of Tampa Bay that the Rays are prepared to stretch their budget (by their standards) in order to capture that elusive championship.  The Rays have reached the postseason in each of the last four years and made it as far as the World Series in 2020, but fell short to the Dodgers in six games.

Assuming Nimmo did sign for around $22MM in average annual value, such a deal would take Tampa Bay’s payroll into a new stratosphere, though the team has already broken some of their own financial benchmarks.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2022 was just shy of $83.9MM, a new club record.  Roster Resource projects Tampa for a 2023 payroll of roughly $67.7MM, and that number includes the projected salaries of a still-large class of arbitration-eligible players.

The Rays have already parted ways with some arb-eligibles (i.e. Ji-Man Choi, Ryan Yarbrough) to save some dollars, and any number of other creative trades could still be possible to further shed payroll.  Tampa could continue to shop more members of their arbitration class, or the team could look into moving players on guaranteed contracts.  Franco isn’t going anywhere, but any of Manuel Margot, Brooks Raley, Tyler Glasnow, or even Brandon Lowe could be plausible trade chips.

Moving an established player to bring in a more expensive player like Nimmo would be an uncharacteristic move for the Rays, yet it could make sense in this circumstance.  Nimmo would essentially be Margot’s replacement in the outfield, and Raley or Glasnow could be replaced by one of the many young arms from Tampa’s seemingly endless pitching pipeline.  The Rays already did well without Lowe for much of the 2022 season, as Lowe played in only 65 games due to ongoing back problems.  If Lowe was traded, the Rays could rely on some combination of Taylor Walls, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, or Vidal Brujan at second base, as they did last season.  Plus, top prospect Curtis Mead is waiting in the wings for his Major League debut.

The Rays relied on their pitching and defense to win 86 games and claim a Wild Card berth last season, but Nimmo’s bat would greatly help a lackluster offense.  Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 with 16 home runs over 673 plate appearances last season, which translated to a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR.  No Rays position player in 2022 had a higher fWAR than Yandy Diaz’s 3.8 number, and only Diaz (146) had a better wRC+.  The left-handed hitting Nimmo even helps from a lineup balance perspective, since Tampa’s lineup is mostly right-handed.

An argument can be made that if the Rays were going to splurge on a player, it should be for someone without Nimmo’s checkered injury history.  There is some irony in Tampa Bay pursuing an oft-injured center fielder just as Kevin Kiermaier is finally off the team’s books.  Kiermaier’s six-year, $53.5MM extension was also one of the larger deals in Rays history, and while Kiermaier was only rarely in Nimmo’s league as a hitter, Kiermaier was one of the league’s best fielders at any position when he was healthy enough to stay on the field.  The public metrics are a little more mixed on Nimmo’s work in center field, though Tampa could use him in any of the three outfield positions, since Jose Siri is on hand to play center.

Angels Sign Jacob Webb To Minors Contract

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The Angels have agreed to sign right-hander Jacob Webb to a minor league contract, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  Webb became a free agent after spending much of the 2022 season with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate.

Webb was an 18th-round pick for the Braves in the 2014 draft, and he has spent his entire career in Atlanta’s organization apart from a brief stint with the Diamondbacks last season.  The D’Backs claimed Webb off waivers in April, and he made six appearances at Triple-A and some time on the Major League roster (without appearing in a game) before the Braves re-acquired Webb back in a trade last June.

Injuries hampered Webb last season, and he had only a 6.06 ERA over 35 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level with the Braves’ and Diamondbacks’ top affiliates.  He didn’t pitch at all at the MLB level, after posting a 2.47 ERA in 76 2/3 frames for Atlanta in parts of the 2019-21 seasons, topping out at 34 1/3 frames in 2021.  Webb also pitched 1 2/3 innings during the NLCS, and earned a World Series ring for his role in Atlanta’s championship season.

Despite that 2.47 ERA, Webb’s 4.28 SIERA and modest 21.9% strikeout rate perhaps better reflect why the Braves first parted ways with him a year ago, and he also had a checkered injury history.  Still, there isn’t much risk for the Angels in taking a look at Webb in camp and seeing if he can compete for a bullpen job.  As Murray notes, Webb is a known quantity to Angels GM Perry Minasian, who worked in Atlanta’s front office from 2017-20 before being hired by Los Angeles.

Though Webb doesn’t record a ton of strikeouts, he does have some swing-and-miss in his game, with an impressive 13.8% swinging-strike rate over his brief MLB career.  If he can continue to miss bats, generate soft contact and (perhaps most importantly) stay healthy, Webb might end up being a nice under-the-radar pickup for the Angels.

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Sign Ariel Jurado

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The Kiwoom Heroes have signed right-hander Ariel Jurado to a one-year contract worth $850K in guaranteed salary, with another $150K available in incentives.  (Hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net.)  After nine seasons in affiliated North American baseball, Jurado will try to jumpstart his career in the Korea Baseball Organization.

It was almost exactly ten years ago that Jurado began his pro career as an international signing for the Rangers, and he worked away in the farm system before finally making his MLB debut in 2018.  Baseball Prospectus even ranked Jurado as the 72nd-best prospect in the sport prior to the 2017 season, though once Jurado made it to the Show, he posted only a 5.97 ERA over 181 innings with the Rangers and Mets from 2018-20.  The Mets acquired the righty from Texas in August 2020, then non-tendered him after the season.

Jurado’s career was then put on hold due to Tommy John surgery, and he missed the entire 2021 season in recovery.  Catching on with the Twins on a minor league deal last winter, Jurado posted a 3.54 ERA over 53 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level in 2022, with his typical low-strikeout (21.5%) and grounder-heavy (51.8%) approach.

Jurado worked as both a starter and long reliever with Triple-A St. Paul, with most of his starts coming later in the season after he had gotten more stretched out after his long layoff.  It’s fair to assume he will look to keep starting in the KBO League, and hope to pitch well for the Heroes and perhaps attract future attention from Major League scouts.  Jurado doesn’t even turn 27 until January, so there’s plenty of time for him to rebuild some value in South Korea and then explore a potential move back to the big leagues.

Willy Adames “Had Conversations” With Brewers About Contract Extension

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Willy Adames is eligible for free agency after the 2024 season, but he has been vocal about wanting to keep playing with the Brewers.  To that end, Adames told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy that the two sides have “had conversations” about a possible longer-term deal, and that “I let them know that obviously I want to stay” in Milwaukee.

“I’m always open to listen to what they’re thinking, and if it’s something that’s good for both sides, I’m open to it,” Adames said.  “I let my agent handle that.  I love it here, I feel good here, I feel comfortable here and I wish I could stay here the rest of my career.”

The exact timing of these talks isn’t known, though they did take place at some point before David Stearns stepped down as the Brewers’ president of baseball operations in late October.  The nature or extent of the negotiations also isn’t known, such as whether the front office and Adames’ agents at CAA Sports had only some broad discussions of Adames’ future, or if they actually exchanged some numbers or floated contract scenarios.

The fact that Stearns is no longer running baseball operations could also be a factor in any future negotiations, though Stearns remains with the Brewers as an advisor, and it isn’t yet clear how things might change in Milwaukee now that GM Matt Arnold has the reins in the front office.  While the Brew Crew has opened up some payroll space in declining Brad Boxberger’s club option, waiving Brent Suter, and trading Hunter Renfroe to the Angels, these moves aren’t necessarily indicative of a rebuild.  The Brewers have routinely looked to maintain a modest payroll while also making less-heralded and less-expensive moves to keep the team competitive.

Extensions have also been part of the strategy, with Christian Yelich’s seven-year, $188.5MM deal standing out as far and away the biggest contract in franchise history.  More recent deals for Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby were much more modest, and looked to lock up some cost certainty on both pitchers earlier in their careers, whereas Yelich already had an NL MVP Award and an MVP runner-up on his resume at the time of his extension.  Yelich was also playing on a previous extension signed back during his days as a member of the Marlins.

Adames represents something of a middle ground between Yelich and Peralta/Ashby, even if a contract extension would certainly be closer to Yelich’s numbers.  The shortstop turned 27 last September, so Adames will be entering his age-29 season if he does hit the open market following the 2024 campaign.  Adames earned $4.6MM in 2022 (his first year of arbitration eligibility), and is projected to exactly double that figure to a $9.2MM salary in 2023.

Trying to pick a comp for Adames is a little difficult at this point, since such free agent shortstops as Carlos Correa, Trea Turner (also a CAA client), Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson are all likely to reset the market with their new contracts.  Since most extension talks don’t take place until Spring Training anyway, Adames’ representatives will likely wait and see how the “big four” shortstops fare before exploring what Adames could earn on a long-term deal.

Adames has delivered plenty of pop throughout his career, especially after being traded from the Rays to the Brewers early in the 2021 season.  The shortstop has hit .256/.325/.483 with 51 homers over 1030 plate appearances in a Brewers uniform, and over his career as a whole, Adames has a 111 wRC+ — a solid number for any player, but particularly from the shortstop position.  Adames has also performed well in the field since the start of the 2019 season, at least in the view of the Defensive Runs Saved (+20) and UZR/150 (+2.9) metrics.  The Outs Above Average metric was much more down on Adames before 2022, when he suddenly posted a +10 OAA.

There is some sense that Adames might yet have more offensive potential in him, especially if he can translate his hard contract into more hits.  Adames had elite barrel-rate metrics in 2022 and an above-average hard-hit ball rate, though he hit only .238 with a .298 on-base percentage.  As he told McCalvy, “I don’t even know how to feel about my numbers.  It’s weird.  Obviously, I want to be more consistent next year and just try to eliminate those long slumps and just be better.”

Adames’ walk rate has fluctuated over the years, dipping to a below-average 7.9% in 2022.  But, the biggest fix for Adames would be to correct some of the swing-and-miss in his game.  Since making his MLB debut in 2018, only 31 qualified players in all of baseball have a higher strikeout rate than Adames’ 28.2% career number.  This is the kind of stat that could give the Brewers some pause in deciding whether or not to extend Adames, if the team’s payroll situation wasn’t already an obstacle.

Yelich’s salary will alone take up a significant chunk of Milwaukee’s future expenditures, and the Brewers also have to consider whether Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff might be extension candidates.  Both All-Star pitchers are also set for free agency after the 2024 season, though recent reports suggest that the Brewers aren’t looking to trade either Burnes or Woodruff for salary relief just yet.  It could be that the Brew Crew keeps Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames all in the fold through 2023 to take another shot at contention, and then some tougher decisions could be saved until next winter.

Waiting would also give the Brewers more time to evaluate whether or not they have a successor on hand for Adames at shortstop.  2022 first-round pick Eric Brown just completed his first year of pro ball, and Brice Turang (a first-round in the 2018 draft) is expected to make his MLB debut sometime next season.  Turang is considered to be a capable shortstop, but he might break into the Show as a second baseman or perhaps an outfielder, depending on the Brewers’ needs at either position.

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