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Report: Padres, Rangers, Red Sox Are Finalists For Kohei Arihara

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The 30-day posting window for right-hander Kohei Arihara is set to close on December 26, and Arihara is apparently set to choose between three MLB teams.  According to reports out of Japan, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox are the finalists for Arihara’s services.

San Diego was the only team known to have interest in Arihara, though it isn’t any surprise that pitching-needy teams like Texas and Boston are also looking into the 28-year-old.  Interestingly, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox have also been linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, another high-profile NPB name on the market.  Sugano’s posting window doesn’t close until January 7, so it’s possible that whichever team lands Arihara could drop out of the race for Sugano.

Comparisons between the two pitchers are inevitable, and Sugano certainly has the more successful track record in Nippon Professional Baseball, as a two-time Sawamura Award winner and one of the better pitchers in the entire league over the last decade.  Sugano is also 31, however, while Arihara doesn’t turn 29 until August.  Arihara would also presumably be available at a lower price tag, which is certainly a factor for any team in this offseason.

Arihara has a 3.74 ERA, 3.23 K/BB rate, and 6.7 K/9 over 836 innings for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.  After winning Pacific League Rookie Of The Year honors in 2015, Arihara had a strong sophomore campaign in 2016 before his production took a dip in 2017-18.  He righted the ship with his finest season, as Arihara has a 2.46 ERA and 8.8 K/9 (both career bests) over 164 1/3 frames for the Fighters in 2019.

As per a scouting report from Will Hoefer of the Sports Info Solutions blog after that big 2019 season, Arihara has a plus changeup, and a fastball that can touch 95mph (though Arihara prefers to mix speeds to keep batters guessing).  Arihara has good command over these two pitches “and a slider that flashes plus,” and Hoefer projects the righty as “a middle of the rotation starter for an MLB team.”

Such an arm would surely be attractive to the three reported finalists.  The Padres are looking for rotation help in the wake of Mike Clevinger’s Tommy John surgery, and the Rangers and Red Sox are both looking for live arms just to fill out a rotation after their pitchers largely struggled in 2020.  In Texas, Arihara would slot in alongside veterans Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, with newly-acquired Dane Dunning also tabbed for a rotation spot after being acquired in the Lance Lynn trade.  Boston’s pitching staff is even more open, given the uncertainty over how Eduardo Rodriguez will bounce back from the health problems that kept him off the mound in 2020, the ever-present injury concerns for Nathan Eovaldi, and an overall lack of experience among other starting options.

According to the MLB/NPB posting system, Arihara has been free to negotiate with any Major League club over his 30-day period, and once he signs with a team, that team will owe the Fighters a release fee that will vary based on the size of Arihara’s contract.  The Fighters will receive a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM, and then 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, and 15 percent of any dollars spent beyond the $50MM threshold.

KBO’s Kia Tigers Sign Daniel Mengden

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Right-hander Daniel Mengden has signed with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization, the team announced (hat tip to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz).  The one-year contract will pay Mengden $425K in salary, a $300K signing bonus, and up to $275K in incentives.

The 27-year-old elected to become a free agent after he was outrighted off the Athletics’ 40-man roster following the season.  Mengden only threw 12 1/3 innings in 2020 after recovering from elbow surgery in February, two offseason surgeries to address an intestinal problem, and then a positive COVID-19 diagnosis in early September.

Originally a fourth-round pick for the Astros in the 2014 draft, Mengden was dealt to the A’s as part of the Scott Kazmir trade in July 2015 and he has gone on to spend his entire MLB career in an Oakland uniform.  After a pretty rough 2016 rookie season, Mengden has a 4.06 ERA, 2.22 K/BB rate, and 6.0 K/9 over 230 2/3 innings for the A’s since the start of the 2017 campaign, starting 34 of 46 games.  Neither a big strikeout pitcher or a grounder specialist, Mengden relies on a lot of soft contact, which has led to decent bottom-line results even if advanced metrics aren’t fond of his work.

Mengden becomes the latest experienced big leaguer to head to the KBO League for a better guarantee of both money and playing time, rather than test a very uncertain North American market.  He’ll join former A’s teammate Aaron Brooks on the Tigers roster, as Brooks recently re-signed for a second season with the Gwangju-based team.

Phillies Name Sam Fuld As General Manager

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2:34PM: The Phillies have announced Fuld’s promotion.  Also, Jorge Velandia was promoted to assistant general manager from special assistant to the GM (as reported earlier today by Jim Salisbury) and former Twins GM Terry Ryan will move into the special assistant role from his past position as a Phillies special assignment scout.

12:59PM: The Phillies are set to promote Sam Fuld to the role of general manager, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link).  Fuld has been working for the team for the last three seasons as the director of integrative baseball performance.

Much like Philadelphia’s recent hire of Dave Dombrowski as the president of baseball operations, the news comes as something of a surprise, as there wasn’t any indication that Fuld was under consideration for the GM role.  However, after months of uncertainty about the front office after former GM Matt Klentak was reassigned, the Phillies’ baseball ops pyramid is now led by the one-two punch of a veteran executive in Dombrowski and a younger, first-time general manager in Fuld.

It was only back in 2017 that Fuld retired from a playing career that saw him play in 598 Major League games from 2007-15 with the Cubs, Rays, Athletics, and Twins.  Fuld moved from the diamond to the Phillies’ front office, operating (as he explained to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer in 2018) in a role that allowed him to transmit and teach analytical data provided by the front office to the Phillies’ players.  “I can appreciate what it’s like to step in the box and understand that some of the things that we may be asking them to do are really, really hard,” Fuld told Breen.  “I think that’s been an issue in the past I’ve seen.  Players are told to do something from someone that doesn’t quite have playing experience at a high level and it can be frustrating when you’re told to do something that is really, really difficult.  It’s taken for granted sometimes.  Hopefully I can relate.”

The skillset of being able to blend recent playing experience with new-age analytical data made Fuld a sought-after managerial candidate in recent years, though he turned down most interview requests before finally sitting down with the Red Sox about their managerial vacancy this past fall.  Fuld was known to be a finalist for the position the Sox re-hired former skipper Alex Cora.

Rather than turn to managing, the 39-year-old Fuld will now take a new path as a GM.  He joins the Rangers’ Chris Young and the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto as current general managers who also played in the majors (Oakland executive VP of baseball operations Billy Beane also has MLB experience.)  Young’s recent hiring in Texas might be the most obvious comp, as both Fuld and Young are recently retired players working under seasoned presidents of baseball operations — Dombrowski in Philadelpha and Jon Daniels in Texas — who will have the final say on personnel moves.

Brewers Claim Tim Lopes

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The Brewers have claimed outfielder Tim Lopes off waivers from the Mariners, according to a Seattle press release.  Lopes was designated for assignment earlier this week to create roster space for the Mariners’ acquisition of Chris Flexen.

Lopes made his MLB debut in 2019 and saw quite a bit of action for the Mariners last season, appearing in 46 of 60 games as part of Seattle’s unsettled corner outfield mix.  Over 279 career plate appearances at the big league level, Lopes has hit .252/.315/.362, and he has also stolen 11 bases in 14 attempts.

The large majority of Lopes’ playing time at the Major League level has come as an outfielder, though unusually, he spent almost no time playing outfield in the minors, playing mostly as a second baseman with significant amounts of experience also at third base and shortstop.  As such, the 26-year-old Lopes can bring quite a bit of versatility to a Brewers roster that has a lot of unanswered questions around the diamond.  The Brewers have valued multi-positional bench types in the past, and Lopes could be seen as a potential super-utility candidate for Milwaukee’s bench.

Nationals Open To Moving Carter Kieboom In Trade Talks

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As the Nationals continue to explore their offseason trade options, the team is “definitely open” to including former top prospect Carter Kieboom in negotiations, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (Twitter links).  Right-handed pitching prospects Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge, however, are not available.

Washington went into the 2020 season hoping Kieboom could step in as the new everyday third baseman, after Anthony Rendon left for the Angels in free agency.  While nobody expected Kieboom to match Rendon’s All-Star level of production, the Nats surely hoped for more than the .202/.344/.212 slash line Kieboom delivered over 122 plate appearances.  The lack of hitting led the Nationals to demote Kieboom to their alternate training site for just shy of two weeks, and his season was also shortened by a wrist injury in the final week of play.

Aside from a respectable OBP, there wasn’t much to like about Kieboom’s first extended taste of Major League action, as he didn’t make much hard contact and next to no power — Kieboom had the lowest slugging percentage of any player in baseball with at least 120 PA.  However, Kieboom showed lots of pop in the minors, hitting .287/.378/.469 with 45 homers in 1462 PA in the Washington farm system after being drafted 28th overall in 2016.

Considering this prospect pedigree, Kieboom’s age (23) and the fact that the 2020 season was about the most difficult of possible circumstances for a younger player to acclimate himself to the big leagues, it is certainly very possible that Kieboom can break out in the near future.  As such, Ghiroli notes that the Nationals surely aren’t going to “give him away” in any trade, if they were to deal him whatsoever.  It’s probably safe to assume most teams also still see Kieboom as a valuable trade chip, so D.C. would only deal Kieboom as the centerpiece of a trade for an established MLB player — perhaps even at third base, to solidify that position.

Cavalli and Rutledge are widely seen as the top two prospects in a Washington farm system that is heavy on pitching, particularly right-handers.  The sheer amount of depth makes it possible that the Nationals might be willing to discuss one of those less highly-regarded prospects (say, in the 5-10 range of their top ten list) but it also makes sense that they’re not budging on moving Cavalli or Rutledge, both first-round picks in the last two drafts.

Cubs Claim Phillip Ervin

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The Cubs claimed outfielder Phillip Ervin off waivers from the Mariners, as announced by both teams.  Seattle designated Ervin for assignment last week.

Ervin will return to the NL Central after spending four-plus seasons with the Reds, though his final act in Cincinnati wasn’t a pleasant one.  After a solid .262/.326/.438 slash line over 571 PA as a part-timer for the Reds from 2017-19, Ervin had only a .324 OPS over 42 PA for the Reds in 2020.  This led to a DFA in late August and a claim by the Mariners, as Ervin hit only somewhat better (.205/.340/.282) in 47 plate appearances for Seattle.

Ervin has experience at all three outfield positions, so he could be a useful bench piece for the Cubs as they figure out their new post-Kyle Schwarber outfield.  The right-handed hitting Ervin has good numbers against left-handed pitching over his career, so he could spell Jason Heyward or Ian Happ when a southpaw is on the mound.  Ervin could have an advantage in the battle for backup role since he is out of minor league options, so the Cubs would have to risk losing him on waivers if they wanted to send him down to Triple-A.

Indians Avoid Arbitration With Nick Wittgren

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The Indians and right-hander Nick Wittgren have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2MM salary for the 2021 season, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reports (Twitter link).

The 29-year-old Wittgren was making his second of three trips through the arbitration process this winter.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Wittgren to earn between $1.4MM-$2.2MM after the righty earned $1.125MM last offseason in another arb-avoiding deal.

Acquired in something of a steal of a trade from the Marlins in February 2019, Wittgren built off the promise he showed in Miami to become a key part of the Cleveland bullpen.  Over 80 games and 81 1/3 innings with the Tribe, Wittgren has a 2.99 ERA, 4.19 K/BB rate, and 9.7 K/9.  ERA predictors haven’t been quite as impressed (4.24 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, 3.56 SIERA) since Wittgren has gotten some good luck in the form of an 84% strand rate and a .254 BABIP, and Statcast also doesn’t love many of his peripheral numbers.  Wittgren is also a bit homer-prone, though he does do a good job of limiting walks.

The Tribe has been comfortable using Wittgren as a setup man, and it seems likely that he’ll continue in that role in 2021, albeit in front of a new closer now that Brad Hand was cut loose.  James Karinchak or Emmanuel Clase could be tabbed as the top ninth-inning options, and it’s possible Wittgren might also pick up the stray save opportunity.

Mets Avoid Arbitration With Noah Syndergaard

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The Mets and right-hander Noah Syndergaard have agreed to a contract for the 2021 season and will avoid going to salary arbitration, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter).  Syndergaard will earn $9.7MM, which was also what he earned in 2020 when missing the entire season due to Tommy John surgery.

Since Syndergaard went under the knife last March, he isn’t likely to be back in action until May or June.  It isn’t yet clear how much game time Syndergaard will actually miss given the rumors about a possible delay to the start of the 2021 season, though regardless, the righty will have a somewhat limited amount of time to establish that he is both healthy and still somewhat close to his old ace-level self in advance of free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.  A Syndergaard who can check both of those boxes should still put himself in line for a substantial multi-year contract next winter, though his price ceiling will surely be impacted by his recent injury history.

Syndergaard’s status will also heavily impact the Mets’ plans for both this winter and the coming season, as an in-form Syndergaard will provide an enormous boost to the team’s starting rotation.  While the Mets have been linked to Trevor Bauer and other free agent hurlers this offseason, it’s possible the team could wait until the trade deadline in order to see what they have in Sydergaard before making any truly big-ticket pitching additions, which means the Mets could pursue lower-tier arms than Bauer this winter.

Even with Syndergaard’s deal now done, the Mets still have ten other arbitration-eligible players remaining.  Here are those projected salaries, as per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

White Sox To Sign Yoelki Cespedes

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The White Sox have agreed to a $2MM bonus with outfielder Yoelki Cespedes, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports.  The deal will be official on January 15 when the 2020-21 international signing window (delayed from last July 2 due to the pandemic) opens.

As the half-brother of former All-Star Yoenis Cespedes, the 23-year-old Yoelki carries some notable family ties and a lot of potential.  MLB Pipeline ranks Cespedes first in its list of 2020-21 int’l prospects, noting that he has put on “at least 15 pounds of muscle” for “more power and explosive bat speed.”  Cespedes has recently overhauled his swing to closely resemble his brother at the plate.  Pipeline’s scouting grades (on the 20-80 scale) indicate five-tool potential for Cespedes, with a 50 grade for his hitting being the lowest score — his fielding and power earned 55s, while his running and throwing arm earned 60s.

Not all scouts are quite this optimistic about Cespedes (as we observed back in March when Cespedes was declared a free agent), though naturally more recent evaluations on Cespedes aren’t really available given how the pandemic curtailed scouting activity for months.  Obviously the White Sox felt comfortable enough in Cespedes’ ceiling to give him $2MM, one of the higher bonuses given to any player in the 2020-21 international class.

As Badler notes, with Cespedes’ deal now taking up much of the available space in Chicago’s international signing pool, the White Sox could be out of the running for Oscar Colas after previously being rumored to have interest in the outfielder.  Colas’ availability was tied up in a dispute with Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks for months, and while that dispute was recently settled, there hasn’t yet been any word on whether or not MLB has officially made Colas a free agent.  It could be that the Sox simply decided to allot their int’l funds towards a player they already knew was available rather than continue to wait on Colas.

Over four seasons in the Serie Nacional, Cespedes hit .287/.352/.416 with 12 homers over 803 PA, beginning in Cuba’s top league as a 17-year-old.  He also played for Cuba during the 2017 World Baseball Classic, as the youngest member of the team’s roster.

Walker Lockett Agrees To Deal With KBO’s Doosan Bears

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Dec.  22: Lockett and the Bears are in agreement on a one-year contract, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports. The agreement is still pending completion of a physical.

Dec. 20: Right-hander Walker Lockett is close to signing a deal with the Doosan Bears of the Korea Baseball Organization, according to multiple Korean media outlets (hat tip to Daniel Kim of ESPN and DKTV).  The Blue Jays hold Lockett’s MLB rights, as Kim notes, so there will likely be some money changing hands between the Bears and Jays to complete the transaction.  Lockett is represented by O’Connell Sports Management.

The move to Seoul will send Lockett to his fourth different organization in as many months, as the Mariners claimed the righty away from the Mets in September, and Toronto claimed him from Seattle two weeks ago.  Lockett is coming off a season that saw him post a 4.96 ERA, 2.75 K/BB, and 6.1 K/9 over 16 1/3 combined innings with the Mets and Mariners.

Modest as those numbers are, they represented a big improvement over the 8.84 ERA Lockett delivered in his first 37 2/3 innings in the Show (with the Padres and Mets in 2018-19).  After allowing home runs at a 2.4 HR/9 pace in those first two seasons, Lockett had a somewhat more palatable 1.1 HR/9 in 2020, and he also allowed much less hard contact than in 2018-19.  Lockett made the cutter into a much more prominent part of his arsenal in 2020, throwing the pitch over 20 percent of the time.

Lockett started eight of his 20 career MLB games and was a regular starter in the minors (97 of 114 games), so it seems probable that the Bears will give him another look out of their rotation.  A fourth-round pick for the Padres back in the 2012 draft, Lockett is still only 26, and has posted decent numbers over nine minor league seasons, relying on lots of grounders rather than big strikeout totals.

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