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Starting Pitching Notes: Harvey, Cole, McCarthy, Greinke, Hellickson

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Starting pitchers could dominate talks leading up to this summer’s trade deadline, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest Insider-only column.  In addition to long-discussed trade candidates like White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana, struggling would-be contenders like the Mets, Blue Jays, Royals, and Pirates could put some of their own arms on the market if they’re fully out of the pennant race by July.  Olney’s column is well worth a full read for his listing of every potential name on the market, though here are a few of the particular hot stove notables…

  • Some evaluators believe the Mets would listen to offers for Matt Harvey if they fall out of the running in the NL East.  The former ace has been whispered in trade rumors for a couple of years due to both off-the-field controversy and a seeming likelihood that he will test the free agent market after the 2018 season (Scott Boras is Harvey’s agent).  Of course, Harvey’s stock has dropped due to an injury-plagued 2016 campaign, and the righty has been only average (4.25 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB rate) over 29.2 IP and five starts this season.  Harvey has been been homer-prone this season and his average fastball velocity is 93.8 mph, two full miles down from his 2015 velocity.  Still, as long as Harvey stays healthy, one would think he’d still receive a lot of deadline attention given his past history.
  • Gerrit Cole is also a Boras client, and since “there is a wide expectation” that Cole won’t stay with the Pirates when his current deal is up after 2019, the righty could be a deadline chip.  Olney writes that some teams felt Pittsburgh was even willing to listen to offers for Cole last year.  With two-plus years of team control left, Cole could well be the most sought-after name on the market if the Bucs indeed made him available, though Cole also has a fairly checkered injury history over the last three years.  The right-hander has a 3.60 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.5 K/BB rate, and 47.1% grounder rate through 30 innings this season.  Dealing Cole wouldn’t necessarily indicate a rebuild for the Pirates, as the team could seek to gain some MLB-ready young talent that could help them make a quick rebound in 2018.
  • Some contending teams could also look to shop pitching, as Olney notes that the Dodgers could again try to move Brandon McCarthy after they were unable to find a taker last winter.  McCarthy has a 3.10 ERA, 7.76 K/9, and 2.78 K/BB rate through 29 innings, finally looking to be in good form after missing much of 2015-16 due to Tommy John surgery.  Of course, given McCarthy’s long injury history, interested teams will surely want to see if the veteran can stay healthy before making any trade offers.  In my opinion, I’d think that the Dodgers might want to hang onto McCarthy given the team’s other injury and performance issues within their rotation.
  • Even with Zack Greinke pitching well and the Diamondbacks battling for first in the NL West, Greinke’s huge salary will still make the D’Backs open to discussing a trade, rival evaluators believe.  Greinke is owed roughly $167MM through the end of the 2021 season, single-handedly accounting for a such a big percentage of Arizona’s current and future payroll commitments that a trade may well be in the best long-term interest of the team.  Of course, if the D’Backs are still contending into July, GM Mike Hazen will face pressure to keep Greinke so he can help the club reach the postseason for just the third time in 15 seasons.
  • A busier-than-expected pitching market could also lead to some players staying put, as Olney suggests the Phillies could look to extend Jeremy Hellickson and make him a building block of their rotation.  Hellickson has a 1.80 ERA through 30 innings this season, though his ERA predictors and peripheral numbers (3.3 K/9, .196 BABIP, 86.2% strand rate, 3.63 FIP, 5.26 xFIP, 5.34 SIERA) suggest that he has been quite fortunate to get such good results.  One would think Philadelphia would try to sell high on Hellickson if he keeps outperforming the advanced metrics to such a large extent, though obviously other teams will be wary of those numbers as well.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff and contributors…

  • The Angels’ 2009 draft would’ve been successful even if the team hadn’t drafted a certain all-time great with the 25th overall pick, as Chuck Wasserstrom outlines in his newest Inside The Draft Room piece.  Wasserstrom examines the scouting and decision-making process that went into the Halos landing Randal Grichuk, Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards and Patrick Corbin within the first two rounds, not to mention the franchise-altering selection of Mike Trout.
  • Ryan Howard’s five-year, $125MM extension with the Phillies drew criticism from the moment the deal was signed in April 2010.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd looks back at how the Howard extension has become “a cautionary tale” or, for the Phillies, “something like the cost expended on a fancy diamond ring in a relationship that ultimately falls apart.”
  • Tim Dillard (a.k.a. The Man They Call @DimTillard) is back with his latest Inner Monologue, discussing some of the common terms you might hear around minor league clubhouses.  Feel free to yell “OK!  LET’S DO THIS!” before clicking on the link.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason In Review Series continued, with Steve Adams breaking down the winter moves of the Tigers, Twins, and Yankees.

Latest On The Marlins’ Potential Sale

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Here’s the latest surrounding the potential sale of the Miami Marlins…

  • Derek Jeter and former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who are leading one of the groups bidding for the Marlins, believe the team “has been spreading misinformation including the terms of the bid,” Ken Davidoff and Josh Kosman of the New York Post report.  Jeter and Bush “were exasperated” by apparently inaccurate reports from earlier this week saying they had reached a general agreement to buy the Marlins, as the Jeter/Bush group is still trying to line up investors.  A source tells Davidoff and Kosman that Jeter and Bush may eventually decide to not bid altogether: “These are not guys who can afford a vanity acquisition.  My guess is they will back out,” the source opines.  The Jeter/Bush group has enlisted the help of New York hedge fund financier Anthony Scaramucci as an advisor to bring some new investors into the bid, though Scaramucci himself won’t be joining the ownership group.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post breaks down the economics behind the potential sale, which goes well beyond the $1 billion-plus price tag.  Some in the game say the Marlins are $400MM in debt, and a new ownership faces losses in the range of $150-$200MM over its first few years of operations since the club lags behind in such revenue-generating streams as attendance, sponsorships, and a local TV contract.  “Some creative bookkeeping” will be required to work out the sale price no matter which competing group ends up buying the Marlins, and current owner Jeffrey Loria “will accept the fastest deal that meets his requests and he believes will be approved by the other owners” in order to get out from under this financial burden.
  • Given these costs involved in buying the Marlins, Sherman raises the possibility of another fire sale as a way that a new ownership group could cut costs.  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe also raises the possibility, particularly in regards to trading Giancarlo Stanton.  The slugger is owed $63MM through the 2019 season, and then, if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause following that year, a whopping $244MM through the 2027 season.  Even though Miami would surely have to eat some of this contract in a trade, Cafardo still wonders if a deal could be reached given Stanton’s injury history and less-than-elite production in 2016.
  • Also from Cafardo’s piece, he reports that the ownership group led by Tom Glavine and Tagg Romney appears to have all of the investors arranged behind its $1.1 billion bid.  A source tells Cafardo that it doesn’t appear as though as of Glavine and Romney’s investors would leave the bid to join the Jeter/Bush group.
  • Marlins manager Don Mattingly and catcher A.J. Ellis are no strangers to performing under an ownership change, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times writes, as both were with the Dodgers during that team’s perhaps even more tumultuous sale from Frank McCourt to the Guggenheim Baseball ownership group.  “That uncertainty, at this stage, is definitely hanging,” Ellis said.  “There’s so many guys here who have been with the Marlins their whole life. That’s all they’ve ever known. It could be a huge life change for them.”

Mariners Outright Leonys Martin

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APRIL 27: Martin has been outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers, Divish was among those to tweet. He’ll remain under Seattle’s control, then, though bringing him back to the active roster would require a 40-man move.

APRIL 23: The Mariners have designated outfielder Leonys Martin for assignment, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter links).  First baseman Dan Vogelbach and right-hander Chris Heston have been called up from Triple-A Tacoma in corresponding moves, while righty Chase De Jong has been sent down to Triple-A.

[Updated Mariners depth chart at Roster Resource]

Martin is off to a very rough start this season, hitting just .111/.172/.130 through his first 58 plate appearances.  This continues Martin’s slump from the last two months of the 2016 season, which put a damper on an overall productive first season in Seattle.  Martin generated 2.2 fWAR on the heels of a .247/.306/.378 campaign in 576 PA, even if his base-running and defense contributed more to his value than his hitting.

Even Martin’s vaunted center field glove took a hit in 2016, however — he managed just a +4.2 UZR/150 and -2 Defensive Runs Saved, very middling numbers for a player who posted 45 DRS from 2013-15.  Between this step backwards on defense, continued issues at the plate and a desire to give more playing time to Jarrod Dyson in center, it makes sense why Seattle would seek to move on from Martin.

The Mariners avoided arbitration with Martin by agreeing to a one-year, $4.85MM deal with him for the 2017 season, a sizeable enough salary that it seems unlikely another team would claim Martin on waivers.  A trade could be a possibility; this is just my speculation, but the Tigers, Giants, and Pirates stand out as teams that could potentially use a left-handed hitting outfielder capable of playing center.

Vogelbach was originally ticketed for a timeshare at first base this season before a somewhat surprising demotion to Triple-A during Spring Training.  With Danny Valencia struggling, however, it opens the door for Vogelbach to get some at-bats against right-handed pitching.  The Mariners are also likely looking for ways to keep the hot-hitting Taylor Motter in the lineup with Jean Segura returning shortly from the DL, so Motter could factor into the mix at first or in left field (if Guillermo Heredia gets some time in center field).

Pirates Looking For Outfielders

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The Pirates are looking for outfield help, GM Neal Huntington told reporters (including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).  While Huntington likes the Bucs’ current outfield options, the team is still on the lookout for external players to help the fill the void left by the suspended Starling Marte.  “If we felt there was something better internally at this point in time, we’d make that move,” Huntington said.

In four games since Marte’s suspension was announced on Tuesday, the Bucs have used Andrew McCutchen in center field, Gregory Polanco in left and a variety of players (Adam Frazier, Jose Osuna and John Jaso) in right.  Frazier has been swinging a hot bat this season, though overall, the outfield mix isn’t tenable defensively.  (Using converted infielders like Josh Harrison also wouldn’t help matters.)  There isn’t much reinforcement available at the minor league level, as Huntington reiterated that top prospect Austin Meadows isn’t going to be promoted anytime soon.  As Brink notes, Meadows isn’t hitting well at Triple-A and the Bucs would likely prefer to delay Meadows’ debut for service time reasons anyway.

The rather makeshift nature of the Pirates’ outfield over the last week isn’t surprising considering that the organization was apparently almost as shocked as the rest of the baseball world by the news of Marte’s suspension.  “We had no idea, no knowledge that this was coming,” Huntington said, adding that Pirates only learned of the suspension the night before MLB announced the 80-game ban last Tuesday.

Given this surprise factor and the Pirates’ limited payroll capabilities, the team certainly won’t make a rash move to trade for a star outfielder, especially since Marte will be back by mid-July.  Looking at the list of available free agent outfielders, Alejandro De Aza and Sam Fuld are potential fits, as left-handed bats are more of a need for Pittsburgh and a player with center field capability is necessary given McCutchen’s declining glovework.

The designated-for-assignment market is perhaps the more interesting avenue of exploration, as Leonys Martin was just DFA’ed by the Mariners earlier today.  Martin’s $4.85MM salary is likely out of the Pirates’ comfort zone, though the M’s could cover some of that money or take on another contract in a trade.  The Pirates have considered recently-designated Brewers outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports (Twitter link).  Nieuwenhuis is also a left-handed hitter but doesn’t produce much at the plate, so Biertempfel thinks the Bucs will look elsewhere.

NL West Notes: Span, Maeda, Spangenberg

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Here’s the latest from around the NL West…

  • Denard Span told CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic and other reporters that he hopes to miss only a few days after hurting his shoulder crashing into the outfield wall last night.  Span said he suffered a similar injury in 2012 that kept him on the DL for several weeks, though his current issue doesn’t quite seem as serious, with Span noting that “the good thing is I’ve got range of motion.”  Between Span’s injury, Hunter Pence day-to-day with a knee strain and the team’s ongoing need in left field, the Giants are in need of some roster creativity to address the outfield.  Manager Bruce Bochy raised the possibility that Brandon Belt could play left (as he is today) in order to get Buster Posey at first and Nick Hundley behind the plate, as Hundley is hitting well.  Drew Stubbs could also be promoted from the minors as further outfield depth.
  • Kenta Maeda now has an 8.05 ERA through his first 19 innings after another rough start last night, though Dodgers manager Dave Roberts still expressed faith in his starter.  “We’re definitely going to hang with him.  But we’re going to talk through some things, and see what’s best for Kenta,” Roberts told Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters, adding that the Dodgers could potentially skip Maeda’s next start.  Maeda has been hampered by a whopping 22.6% homer rate, a lack of grounders and an increase in hard contact (though only from soft to medium contact, by Fangraphs’ calculations).  As McCullough, Maeda’s problems actually date back to last season, as Maeda was less effective down the stretch than in the first half of his MLB rookie year.
  • With Cory Spangenberg on fire at Triple-A, the Padres may be in a bit of a roster crunch, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes.  Spangenberg could be called up to take some playing time away from the struggling Ryan Schimpf at third base, though that still wouldn’t give Spangenberg the everyday at-bats the Padres want him to get, plus it also seems early to relegate Schimpf to a part-time role.  There’s also a 25-man issue in finding a place for Spangenberg, as the Padres have three Rule 5 Draft picks and three out-of-options players on their big league roster.

Quick Hits: Pedroia, JDM, Greene, Draft, Analytics

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Dustin Pedroia will undergo an MRI on his left ankle and knee on Monday, Red Sox manager John Farrell told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Jen McCaffrey and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham).  After suffering the injury on a hard slide from Manny Machado on Friday, Pedroia sat out Saturday’s game and is also not in Sunday’s lineup, as Farrell said the swelling around Pedroia’s lower leg area hasn’t yet subsided.  While the MRI is being performed “just to rule anything out,” according to Farrell, it’s worth noting that Pedroia underwent surgery on that same knee to remove part of his meniscus last October.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • J.D. Martinez could return from the DL in late April or early May, Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck).  This is the latest in a series of positive reports on Martinez, who suffered a lisfranc sprain in his left foot during Spring Training.  The original timeline had Martinez not even beginning baseball activities until mid-April, though the slugging outfielder has been ahead of schedule, including feeling better than expected during light running drills on Friday.  The Tigers will reportedly be cautious with Martinez, which isn’t any surprise given the tricky nature of lisfranc injuries and Martinez’s importance to Detroit’s lineup.
  • “The rumors of [Hunter Greene] and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret,” Baseball America’s John Manuel writes as part of a mock draft.  Greene, a high school pitcher/shortstop, reportedly wants to be a Padre for geographical (Greene is from Los Angeles) and baseball-related reasons, as the Padres’ throwing program more closely matches Greene’s own throwing program.  Interestingly, Greene is believed to be shutting down as a pitcher, perhaps in part to lower his draft stock so that Minnesota and Cincinnati pass on him with the first two picks and Greene winds up in San Diego.  Then again, the Reds “aren’t afraid to call Greene’s bluff,” Manuel writes.
  • Manuel’s piece is well worth a full read, as he details potential needs, leanings, and first-round draft picks for all 30 teams.  Sticking with the top of the draft, the Reds “covet” Brendan McKay, the Louisville two-way star who Manuel projects will be taken first overall by the Twins as a pitcher.  Then again, Minnesota is also reportedly exploring deals with several players for the first pick, including high school position player Royce Lewis and Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith.
  • Teams showed an increased willingness to pay for pitch-framing ability and defense this winter (such as the Twins and Jason Castro) on the catching market, though as Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com notes, there are so many facets to the position that “catching cannot be quantified” no matter how hard teams try.  The same could technically be said of any position, though a catcher’s true value is particularly difficult to pin down since the human element of the pitcher/catcher relationship is so important.

Angels Designate Kirby Yates For Assignment

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The Angels have designated right-hander Kirby Yates for assignment, the club announced.  Righty Brooks Pounders has been called up from Triple-A in a related roster move.

This is the second time this month that Yates has been DFA’ed by the Halos, as the righty already cleared waivers once and was outrighted to Triple-A, only to be recalled yesterday.  Yates didn’t fare well in his only appearance for the Angels (allowing two homers in a inning of work), though the team still held on for a 5-4 win over the Blue Jays on Saturday.

Yates, who turned 30 last month, was originally claimed off the Yankees’ roster last October.  The right-hander has a 5.38 ERA over 98 2/3 career innings in the bigs with the Angels, Yankees and Rays.

Athletics Acquire Ryan LaMarre

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The Athletics have acquired outfielder Ryan LaMarre from the Angels in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations, as per announcements from both teams.  In a related move, the A’s moved right-hander Chris Bassitt to the 60-day DL to create roster space.  Los Angeles designated LaMarre for assignment earlier this week when catcher Juan Graterol was acquired in a trade with Toronto.  LaMarre, 28, signed a Major League deal with the Halos this winter but began the season at Triple-A.

Originally a second-round pick for the Reds in the 2010 draft, LaMarre has a .267/.345/.381 slash line over 2695 career plate appearances in the minors, plus 27 games in the big leagues with the Reds and Red Sox from 2015-16.  He has primarily played as a center fielder during his career, so LaMarre provides the A’s with some versatile outfield depth at the minor league level.

The 60-day DL placement means that Bassitt can’t return to Oakland’s roster under June, even though an early return didn’t seem possible anyway given that Bassitt underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2016.  The righty was reported to be making good progress in his recovery as of two weeks ago, though Bassitt is obviously still in need of a lengthy rehab stint in the minors.

Injury Notes: Bumgarner, Span, Hunter, Odorizzi, Locke

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There hasn’t been any talk within the Giants organization about filing a grievance against Madison Bumgarner in the wake of the ace southpaw’s dirt bike accident earlier this week, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required).  It isn’t known whether Bumgarner had some sort of contractual clause (as many players do) prohibiting him from engaging in potentially dangerous activities like dirt biking, though if he did, the Giants would technically be within their rights to pursue recouping some of the salary owed to Bumgarner while he is on the disabled list.  Then again, as Olney notes, such a tactic “would be incredibly shortsighted and stupid” for the Giants given Bumgarner’s importance to the franchise, not to mention the fact that Bumgarner is already an enormous bargain thanks to an early-career extension.

Here’s the latest on some injury situations from around baseball…

  • Denard Span left last night’s game in the second inning after colliding with the wall while making a catch.  The Giants outfielder suffered a mild right shoulder sprain and though Span told MLB.com’s Chris Haft and other reporters that x-rays were negative, manager Bruce Bochy said Span may be out of action for a few days.  With Hunter Pence also hampered by a knee strain, the Giants may need to make some type of roster move to fill the gaps in their outfield.
  • The Rays placed right-hander Tommy Hunter on the 10-day DL with a right calf strain, recalling Chih-Wei Hu from Triple-A to fill the spot in the bullpen.  Hunter, who signed a minor league deal with Tampa Bay in February, has performed very well in his 8 1/3 innings with the club, posting a 1.08 ERA in 10 relief appearances.  Hu, 23, will be looking to make his official MLB debut after five seasons in the minors with the Rays and Twins.  Baseball America ranked Hu as the fifth-best prospect in the Rays’ system prior to this season.
  • In better news for the injury-plagued Rays, Jake Odorizzi told reporters (including Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times) that he feels ready to return from the 10-day DL after a 36-pitch bullpen session and some running drills.  Odorizzi was placed on the DL last weekend due to a left hamstring strain, though the injury wasn’t considered to be too serious.  The Rays righty is eligible to be activated on Wednesday.
  • The Marlins will probably use Jeff Locke out of the bullpen when the southpaw returns from injury, manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including Andre C. Fernandez of the Miami Herald).  Locke gives the Fish another lefty out of the pen, and “We still want — we’ve always talked about having a number of guys who can do multiple innings,” Mattingly said.  Locke has been sidelined with biceps tendinitis since early in Spring Training and is getting close to beginning a rehab assignment, Mattingly said, though no more specific timeline was provided beyond the skipper saying that Locke is expected back sometime in May.  Locke has primarily been a starter during his six-year MLB career, though the Pirates shifted him to the pen last year in the midst of a rough 2016 season for the left-hander.  Pittsburgh non-tendered Locke in December, and he signed a one-year, $3.025MM deal with Miami.

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