MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?
The AL East was perhaps the strongest division in baseball last season, with three teams that made the postseason, four that finished above .500, and a fifth place team that would have finished third in most other divisions. Given that divisional strength last season, it’s no surprise that Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds give every team in the AL East at least an 8% chance to make the playoffs. By contrast, no other division’s projected last place team tops Detroit’s 3.1% odds. With Opening Day just over a week away, let’s take a look at the AL East’s five clubs (in order of their finish in the 2022 standings) in search of the division’s next champion.
New York Yankees (99-63 in 2022)
The Yankees were historically dominant in the first half of the 2022 season, but struggled to a 43-42 finish in the regular season after the calendar flipped to July, largely buoyed by the heroics of AL MVP (and pending free agent) Aaron Judge. Most of the focus this offseason in the Bronx was on retaining Judge, which they did on a nine-year deal. They also re-signed Anthony Rizzo to lock down first base, but signed just two new players to big league deals this offseason: lefty ace Carlos Rodon signed a six-year deal while reliever Tommy Kahnle signed on for two years. What’s worth, both of those free agent acquisitions are expected to open the season on the injured list alongside trade deadline pickups Harrison Bader and Frankie Montas.
Between an offseason marked by a low quantity (though high quality) of additions and a slew of spring injuries, this Yankees team looks unlikely to reach the heights they did in the first half of 2022, having lost the likes of Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter to free agency this offseason, but perhaps healthy returns from the likes of Rodon and Bader can help them improve upon their second half struggles from last season, to say nothing of exciting prospects like Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe who seem likely to impact the club at some point this year.
Toronto Blue Jays (92-70 in 2022)
After a solid campaign that saw the Blue Jays return to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2016, Toronto was aggressive in mixing up their roster throughout the offseason. In an effort to get more left-handed and improve the defense, the club added Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield mix at the expense of Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while also landing Brandon Belt to solidify the DH spot. As for the pitching staff, Chris Bassitt was brought in to solidify the middle of the rotation behind Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, while Erik Swanson will strengthen the back of the Toronto bullpen.
While the Blue Jays certainly made significant changes over the course of the season, whether they can surpass the Yankees to claim the division crown will likely require returns to form for some players who performed below expectations in 2022, such as Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, both of whom figure to open the season in the rotation despite posting ERAs north of 5.00 last season.
Tampa Bay Rays (86-76 in 2022)
After making their fourth consecutive postseason in 2022, the Rays had a very quiet offseason, with no major trade acquisitions and right-hander Zach Eflin standing as their lone major league signing. Indeed, it seems most of Tampa Bay’s resources were dedicated to extensions, as they agreed to long-term deals with Pete Fairbanks, Yandy Diaz, and Jeffery Springs shortly after the calendar flipped to 2023. That left the roster churn this offseason to be defined by departures rather than additions, as key players like Kevin Kiermaier, Mike Zunino and Ji-Man Choi departed the organization.
Still, the Rays have plenty of assets in place with which to make things interesting, as young players like Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Isaac Parades turned in excellent performances in 2022. With so few changes to the roster following a season where they finished 13 games back in the division race, however, the Rays are likely going to have to bank on improved health from stars Tyler Glasnow and Wander Franco along with bigger contributions from players who struggled last season like Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls and Francisco Mejia if they are to claim the NL East crown this year.
Baltimore Orioles (83-79 in 2022)
The Orioles were one of the most fascinating stories of the 2022 season, as the club surged in the summer months toward surprise contention after not having won more than 54 games since 2017, though they ultimately failed to make the postseason. With young talent like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez all either already in the big leagues or knocking on the door, with still more prospects to come, it seemed as though the rebuild in Baltimore was over.
Expectations have surely been tempered among the Orioles faithful after a relatively quiet offseason, however. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens made up the club’s free agent signings this offseason. That said, Mike Elias’s front office did fairly well on the trade market, picking up Cole Irvin to solidify the rotation and James McCann to back up Rutschman. After a surprise surge over .500 in 2022, it’s easy to imagine the Orioles slipping back underwater in 2023. That being said, with so much young talent breaking into the majors and percolating in the upper levels of the farm system, they certainly can’t be ruled out from making a surprise push into playoff contention or even toward the division title.
Boston Red Sox (78-84 in 2022)
2022 was a difficult season for the Red Sox, as the club finished three games under .500 despite opting not to sell off valuable players like Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi and J.D. Martinez who went on to walk in free agency this offseason. The headline move of this offseason for the Red Sox has to be Rafael Devers signing a ten-year extension back in January, but the Red Sox were active players in the offseason marketplace as well, adding Mastaka Yoshida, Corey Kluber, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Adalberto Mondesi, among others. Still, the departures of Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Martinez, Rich Hill, and Michael Wacha, in addition to the deadline trade that sent Christian Vazquez out of the organization, all left plenty of question marks on the roster.
Those questions are particularly worrisome up the middle, where the Red Sox figure to use Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernandez, Reese McGuire, and Christian Arroyo to open the season. The Red Sox enter 2023 with more than enough talent on the roster to attempt to return to contention this season. That being said, there’s enough question marks and holes in the roster that it’s just as easy to see another sub-.500 season from this club as it is to see a return to the playoffs after missing out in 2022.
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While this division ultimately seems most likely to come down to the Yankees and the Blue Jays, who both finished well ahead of the competition in 2022 and improved most significantly over the offseason, the AL East could certainly see all five of its clubs in the thick of the postseason hunt come the summertime. What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Yankees reclaim the crown, will the Blue Jays or Rays surge from their Wild Card spots to capture the division title, or will the Orioles or Red Sox surprise? Let us know in the poll below.
Who Will Win The AL East In 2023
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Toronto Blue Jays 40% (4,401)
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New York Yankees 36% (3,976)
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Baltimore Orioles 8% (923)
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Tampa Bay Rays 8% (902)
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Boston Red Sox 7% (813)
Total votes: 11,015
Padres Notes: Soto, Nola, Pomeranz
Padres manager Bob Melvin spoke today with reporters, including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, regarding the status of superstar outfielder Juan Soto, who was pulled from a minor league spring training game on Sunday thanks to a mild left oblique strain. Melvin noted that Soto is set to undergo an MRI, but reaffirmed the club’s belief that the injury is a mild one, and noted that a return to action in time for Opening Day next week is not out of the question.
That’s about as good of news as Padres fans can get ahead of an MRI, as any absence from Soto would be a serious blow for a Padres club that will already play the first twenty games of its season without fellow phenom Fernando Tatis Jr. while he completes his suspension for PED usage. That being said, even if Soto were to begin the season on the injured list, the club would still be set to run out a star-studded roster on Opening Day that includes the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, and Josh Hader.
In the event that Soto does miss time, the likes of Jose Azocar and Adam Engel could benefit in terms of playing time as long as he is out. If Soto were to miss enough time that Tatis returns before him, it seems reasonable to expect that Matt Carpenter, currently slated to play right field while Tatis is suspended, would slide over to left to cover for the remainder of Soto’s absence.
More from Padres camp…
- Acee also notes that catcher Austin Nola, who suffered a fractured nose after getting hit in the face with a pitch on Sunday, is expected to return to the field tomorrow for “light work”, with an Opening Day start behind the plate still on the table. Nola, a solid bat-first catcher coming off his first below average offensive season (89 wRC+ in 110 games) in 2022, figures to be the club’s starting catcher this year. San Diego is fortunate to have a quality backup in the form of Luis Campusano should Nola miss any time. If Nola requires a brief stint on the injured list, Brett Sullivan stands to back up as the only other catcher on the 40-man roster unless the Padres decide to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate a non-roster invitee such as Pedro Severino.
- In less fortunate injury news, Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes that lefty reliever Drew Pomeranz is set to miss opening day after feeling some inflammation in his elbow. Pomeranz has been excellent for the Padres when healthy, posting a sterling 1.62 ERA over the past two seasons, but this latest setback adds to the 34 year old’s lengthy injury history that led him to pitch just 44 1/3 innings in that same timeframe. Fortunately for San Diego, Josh Hader and Robert Suarez are certainly a capable tandem for late-inning duties to open the season.
The Opener: WBC, Profar, MLBTR Chats
With just nine days remaining until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. WBC Update
The World Baseball Classic final is today. After a 6-5 walk off win in the bottom of the ninth against Team Mexico, the undefeated Team Japan moves on to the final round to face Team USA. Japan, of course, sports two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, as USA counters with not only Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout, but also Phillies shortstop Trea Turner, who leads all WBC players with four home runs in just 19 at bats. With the game set to air at 6pm CT tonight on FS1, the biggest question remaining is: Will Ohtani pitch? The team has left the answer up in the air publicly, naming lefty Shota Imanaga as the starter for tonight’s game even as Ohtani admits that it would be difficult to get warm in the bullpen while also batting in the heart of the order.
2. When will Profar be made official?
Jurickson Profar, the last top-50 free agent on the market this offseason, recently signed a one-year pact with the Rockies, though Colorado has yet to make the deal official. While the Rockies have a full 40-man roster, making the Profar signing official likely will not be impacted by that, as players such as Brendan Rodgers and Lucas Gilbreath are already ticketed for the 60-day IL. Still, with Profar expected to arrive in camp sometime this week, it seems reasonable to expect the signing to be made official in the coming days as Profar prepares to be the everyday left fielder in Colorado. The timing of the move is also notable given the simple fact that Opening Day is just over a week away. Profar got 16 plate appearances in with the Netherlands during the WBC and went 3-for-13 with a homer and three walks, but he’d still benefit from as many spring at-bats as possible.
3. MLBTR Chats Today
In conjunction with the Padres edition of our Offseason in Review series, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald will be hosting a Padres-centric live chat with readers later today at 10am CT. You can click here to leave a question in advance, and that same link will take you to the chat when it begins or allow you to read the transcript afterwards. In addition, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting his weekly chat with an MLB-wide focus at 1pm CT. You can click here to leave a question, participate live, or read the transcript of Steve’s chat.
The Opener: WBC, Soto, Astros
With just ten days until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. WBC Update
Last night, Team USA (5-1) trounced Team Cuba (3-3) by a score of 14-2 to move onto the World Baseball Classic Finals. Their opponent will be decided tonight, as Team Japan (5-0) faces off against Team Mexico (4-1). Patrick Sandoval (1 ER in 3.0 IP) will take the ball for Team Mexico, facing off against Team Japan’s 21-year-old phenom, Roki Sasaki (0 ER in 3.2 IP). In addition to a strong pitching matchup, both clubs have an MLB star on a hot streak at the plate, with Randy Arozarena (1.566 OPS in 17 PA) and Shohei Ohtani (1.438 OPS in 16 PA) both standing in the top 10 of all WBC batters in terms of OPS. The game begins at 6pm CT and will air on FS1.
2. Soto injury update on the horizon?
Last night, the Padres revealed that superstar Juan Soto suffered a mild oblique strain, but few details were made available about the situation. More information could come to light regarding Soto’s situation as soon as today. Should Soto indeed miss time, Jose Azocar and Adam Engel are among those who could stand to garner some additional playing time, while a player such as David Dahl or Brandon Dixon could be called upon to fill out the Padres bench.
3. Without Altuve, where can the Astros look for middle infield depth?
Yesterday, it was announced that Astros star second baseman Jose Altuve would undergo surgery after sustaining a broken thumb while playing in the WBC. The team did not provide a formal timetable for Altuve’s return. It seems that David Hensley and Mauricio Dubon will handle second base duties until Altuve has recovered. Beyond that pair, Houston has former Orioles and Dodgers prospect Rylan Bannon on the 40-man roster and journeyman Dixon Machado in camp on a non-roster deal.
If the Astros want to add some further depth to protect against injury to one of of Hensley, Dubon or shortstop Jeremy Pena, the free-agent market still has a handful of experienced veterans, with Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Villar and Alcides Escobar all unsigned at the moment. There will also surely be some middle infielders who’ll be designated for assignment over the next ten days or so as other teams select the contracts of prospects or veterans on minor league deals, which could create the opportunity for some minor trades or waiver claims for the ‘Stros. The corresponding 40-man move could be rather straightforward, assuming the Astros feel Altuve will require a stint on the 60-day injured list while he recovers from surgery.
NL East Notes: Braves, Nimmo, Painter
The Braves have a handful of areas on the roster that have yet to be settled, even with Opening Day only a little over a week away. The fifth starter competition has been upended since the beginning of spring, as Michael Soroka has once again struggled with injuries while early favorites Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder fell out of favor thanks to excellent springs from prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd. The final spot in the bullpen and the fourth outfielder position are other areas with uncertainty, but perhaps the most interesting camp battle at this point in the Spring is one few expected headed into the year.
As noted by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the shortstop position is still up for grabs, though most considered youngster Vaughn Grissom all but locked into the role as camp began last month. Since then, though, prospect Braden Shewmake has paired already-excellent defense with a torrid spring at the plate as he’s slashed .333/.400/.482 in 12 grapefruit league games. While it seems that the most likely conclusion to this remains Grissom as the starting shortstop, backed up by Orlando Arcia, Shewmake has made a case for himself this spring, and it’s worth noting that his left-handed bat could serve as a better complement to the right-handed Arcia than Grissom, who also bats righty. Toscano notes that it seems unlikely the Braves would roster both players to open the season, but it’s reasonable to expect that even if Shewmake fails to take the starting shortstop gig for himself to open the season, an opportunity to make his big league debut will open up at some point this season.
More from around the NL East…
- Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo tells reporters, including Joel Sherman of the New York Post, that he was “relieved” following his diagnosis with a sprained knee and ankle that there was no structural damage in either area. Nimmo believes he will still be ready for Opening Day next week, which is surely a relief for Mets fans who recently lost fellow high-dollar returning free agent signing Edwin Diaz for the season to knee surgery. Should Nimmo miss time, it seems likely that would open up playing time for the likes of Tommy Pham and Tim Locastro.
- Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that he still expects top prospect Andrew Painter to make his big league debut at some point this season. Painter was diagnosed with a UCL sprain earlier this spring which took him out of the fifth starter competition in Philadelphia, but the young right-hander has not been recommended for Tommy John surgery, instead attempting to rehab the injury after a four week shutdown. Should the rehab route prove successful, it’s no surprise that Painter would be in the mix to make his debut later this season, as he proved himself to be clearly MLB-ready with a dominant spring prior to the sprain.
Glenn Otto To Undergo MRI On Right Lat Muscle
The Rangers’s rotation depth has been dealt another blow, as right-hander Glenn Otto, who was scratched from his start yesterday with “right lat tightness”, tells reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that he is set to undergo an MRI on the muscle after feeling more soreness this morning.
Otto, who celebrated his 27th birthday last week, made 27 starts for the Rangers last year, pitching to a 4.64 ERA that was 15% below league average by ERA+. Underlying metrics further underscore Otto’s struggles last year, as he posted a strikeout rate of just 18.2% against a 10.6% walk rate, with a whopping 8.9% of his batted balls allowed resulting in barrels. All that added up to a 5.21 FIP, more than half a run higher than his ERA. Given that performance, its no surprise that Texas’s offseason spending spree on starters that saw them acquire Jake Odorizzi, Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, and Nathan Eovaldi while re-signing Martin Perez pushed Otto out of the rotation picture. Still, Otto figured to compete for a roster spot with Cole Ragans and Dane Dunning following the announcement that Odorizzi would begin the season on the injured list.
Though Otto was far from the favorite to secure that roster spot, it’s worth noting that virtually every team needs depth starters throughout the regular season, and Otto was sure to make appearances in the big leagues at some point this year even if he didn’t make the Opening Day roster. That’s especially true for the Rangers, who have a starting five featuring a handful of players who have missed significant time in recent years: deGrom and Heaney both failed to clear 75 innings of work last year, while Eovaldi has pitched more than 111 innings just once since the end of the 2016 season.
Should Otto join Odorizzi on the injured list to open the season and miss significant time, that lines Ragans and Dunning up for a battle to be the long man out of the Rangers’s bullpen to open the season, with the other likely headed to Triple-A to serve as a depth starter alongside Spencer Howard. That being said, it’s worth noting that both Eovaldi and deGrom are expected to open the season on limited pitch counts, meaning it could behoove the Rangers to carry both Ragans and Dunning into the season in order to have more long relief options available to shoulder the additional workload while Eovaldi and deGrom ramp up.
While few details regarding Otto’s injury are available, MLB.com notes that lat strains come in three grades, with the mildest ones requiring a recovery time of just a few weeks while the most severe ones can require surgery and a lengthy rehab afterward. With such a wide range of possible outcomes, it’s impossible to predict the outcome of Otto’s MRI, the severity of his injury, or the timetable for his return to action.
Phillies Interested In Right-Handed Hitting Outfielders
With just over a week until Opening Day, the bench group in Philadelphia is beginning to come into focus. As discussed by The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, the Phillies view each of backup catcher Garrett Stubbs, and utilitymen Edmundo Sosa and Josh Harrison as locks to make the roster. With Bryce Harper slated to begin the season on the injured list as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, the Phillies have no set, everyday DH, leaving them with effectively five seats on the bench. With three locked in, two spots remain available for the Phillies to fill.
Gelb notes that the Phillies are interested in acquiring a right-handed fourth outfielder to complement the starting outfield trio of Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Nick Castellanos, but there are plenty of internal candidates also capable of securing one of the remaining bench jobs: utilitymen Scott Kingery, Dalton Guthrie, and Kody Clemens are joined by outfielder Jake Cave and first baseman Darick Hall in the hunt for a spot on the Philadelphia bench to open the season.
All five players have relatively secure spots in the organization headed into the season: Guthrie, Clemens, Cave, and Hall all are on the 40-man roster with minor league options remaining, while Kingery is not on the 40-man roster but is set to remain in the organization during the final year of his ill-fated six-year, $24MM extension he signed with the Phillies ahead of the 2018 season, before he had taken a big league at-bat. Without fear of losing any of these players by not dedicating an Opening Day roster spot to them, the Phillies have plenty of flexibility in making their final decisions about which players to roster.
Looking at external options, the best right-handed fourth outfield option remaining unsigned is likely Albert Almora. Almora played in 64 games for the Reds in 2022 with solid defense at each of the three outfield spots, but struggled at the plate as he slashed just .223/.282/.349 in 235 plate appearances, good for just a 71 wRC+. That seems to be about in line with what a club should expect from Almora should they sign him for this season, given his career 80 wRC+ drops to 71 when looking at his performance since the start of the 2018 season.
While the pickings are currently slim on the free agent market, it remains possible that a player squeezed off their current club’s roster could be made available either by trade or by opting-out of their current minor-league pact and returning to the free agent market. Jake Marisnick, Monte Harrison, and Michael Hermosillo are among the numerous players around the league for whom that is a possibility as Spring Training draws toward a conclusion.
If the Philies are unable to find anyone outside of the organization to their liking, both Kingery and Guthrie are right-handed hitters with experience at all three outfield spots. Kingery has had a better spring to this point that Guthrie, as the former has raked to a .394/.459/.515 line this spring that far outshines Guthrie’s .250/.273/.375 line. With that being said, Guthrie has advantages of his own. As previously mentioned, he already has a 40-man roster spot, while Kingery would require a corresponding move to roster. Additionally, Guthrie raked in his first taste of big league action last season, posting a whopping 184 wRC+ in his fourteen-game cup of coffee that earned him a spot on the postseason roster during Philadelphia’s NL championship run.
It’s also worth noting that Kingery has largely struggled in his major league opportunities to this point in his career, with his already mediocre 73 wRC+ in 325 career games mostly buoyed by a 2019 season where he was league average at the plate (100 wRC+) in 500 plate appearances. Since then, Kingery has posted a brutal wRC+ of just 21, indicating he’s been 79% worse than league average at the plate in 52 big league games since the start of the 2020 season. Given his long-lasting struggles, it would be understandable if the Phillies were hesitant to trust his torrid spring.
Assuming the Phillies would like another left-handed bat on the bench in addition to Stubbs, the spot that doesn’t go to one of Kingery, Guthrie, or an external fourth outfielder would likely go to one of Hall, Clemens, or Cave. All three have raked in Grapefruit League play, but one separator could be that Clemens has by far the most positional flexibility of the three. Cave is confined to the outfield while Hall is limited to first base and the DH slot while Clemens has experience in the four corner spots and at second base, though Gelb indicates that the Phillies don’t see Clemens as a factor at the keystone.
That being said, Cave has the advantage of a long track record of major league experience, with 335 big league games under his belt to this point and a career wRC+ of 92, though he posted just an 81 in 54 games with the Twins last year. While the most defensively limited of the three options, Hall is the most interesting bat of the three, as he posted a 119 wRC+ in 101 Triple-A games last year before carrying that success into the big leagues, where he slashed .250/.282/.550 with a wRC+ of 120. For a team set to start the season without Harper, it’s possible that Hall’s lefty power might be too attractive to pass up, even with his defensive limitations.
While pairing Hall with one of Guthrie or Kingery certainly seems like an attractive option for the Phillies right now, an external addition or injury could certainly change that over the course of the next week or so, to say nothing of the reality that all five internal options seem sure to get major league opportunities at some point this year as the roster churns through the regular season.
The Opener: WBC, Relief Market, Voit
With Opening Day less than two weeks away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. WBC Update
The World Baseball Classic continues tonight as Puerto Rico takes on Mexico in the quarterfinals. Marcus Stroman will take the mound for Puerto Rico, while Julio Urias will start the game for Mexico. To this point in this series, Mexico has been lead by Randy Arozarena (1.714 OPS) and Joey Meneses (1.263 OPS) while Puerto Rico is lead by Francisco Lindor (1.129 OPS) while also featuring All-Star Javier Baez. Puerto Rico, of course, will be without closer Edwin Diaz, who required surgery on the patellar tendon in his right knee yesterday and will likely miss the entire 2023 season. Tonight’s game, which will begin at 6pm CST, will air on FS1.
2. Relief Market Update
Following Diaz’s injury, all eyes are on the Mets as they decide whether to stick with their internal relief options like David Robertson, Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley or pursue external additions. Meanwhile, two possible options on the free agent market are holding workouts in attempts to get signed to big league deals: Zack Britton held a showcase yesterday, which the Mets were in attendance for, while Ken Giles will do the same this morning for multiple teams, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Both Britton and Giles have worked out for teams already this spring, but as Opening Day approaches are doing so again, perhaps to ease the nerves of teams who are put off by each player’s lengthy recent injury history.
3. Voit Opt-Out Decision Looming
The Brewers signed slugging first baseman Luke Voit to a minor league deal earlier in the offseason, but Voit reportedly has an opt-out of the contract that he intends to exercise if the Brewers do not add him to the 40-man roster. The Brewers had until midnight last night to do so before Voit was able to opt-out, but it’s possible Voit could stay in camp with Milwaukee for a little while longer, as noted by MLB.com’s Adam McCalvey. Should Voit opt out of his contract, he would re-join the free agent market as one of the top remaining bats available, behind only the lingering Jurickson Profar.
Latest On The Red Sox’ Rotation
The Red Sox’ rotation will likely be down several starters to begin the season, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes that each of Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and James Paxton are expected to begin the season on the injured list. Paxton had already been trending in this direction, but Whitlock and Bello now join him in missing at least the beginning of the 2023 season. Cotillo notes that Whitlock, who got a late start while recovering from hip surgery is expected to be ready sometime in mid-April. Bello, who battled forearm tightness early in camp, should follow shortly thereafter. Paxton isn’t expected to return until May at the earliest.
The Red Sox announced this week that offseason signee Corey Kluber would get the nod on Opening Day. Left-hander Chris Sale, eyeing for a rebound campaign after a dreadful run of injuries in recent seasons, is slated to start the second game of the season. Righties Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and likely Kutter Crawford should round out the quintet to begin the year.
With Whitlock and Bello both expected to return by the end of the season’s first month, though, the rotation will likely be reconfigured early in the regular season. Crawford, who struggled to a 5.47 ERA in 77 2/3 frames last season, figures to be the odd man out once either Whitlock or Bello is able to reclaim a spot in the starting staff. In that case, Crawford would figure to serve as optionable rotation depth alongside Josh Winckowski.
Assuming everyone remains healthy by the time both Whitlock and Bello are ready to return, the Sox will be faced with a decision between Houck and Pivetta for the final rotation spot. Pivetta made a league-leading 33 starts last season and paced the team with 179 2/3 innings pitched. That impressive volume came with mediocre results, however, as the right-hander posted a slightly below-average 4.56 ERA during the 2022 campaign.
Houck, meanwhile, has been a successful pitcher both as a starter (3.22 ERA in 92 1/3 innings) and a reliever (2.68 ERA in 53 2/3 innings) to this point in his career. The former first-rounder has long been seen as a potential rotation piece at Fenway, but the Red Sox were noncommittal early in the offseason when asked about his role. Houck also had back surgery late last season and ended the year on the injured list after making 28 of his 32 appearances as a reliever. It’s easy to see why the Sox would be intrigued by the idea of Houck upping his workload this year and even getting some more run in the starting staff, but he’s coming off a 60-inning season that ended in back surgery; a jump to a full starter’s workload would be something of a surprise.
Of course, this needn’t be a strict either-or proposition. Situations like this tend to work themselves out, often as injuries pop up elsewhere on a pitching staff. Getting Houck some early rotation work and perhaps moving him to a multi-inning relief/sixth starter role once everyone is healthy would be a good means of managing his workload as he ramps up from last year’s 60 innings.
Even if the plan is to ride Houck as a starter as long as possible, that doesn’t mean Pivetta will be decidedly forced out of the rotation. Given that each of Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Kluber and especially Paxton have some notable injuries within the past few seasons, it’s likely the Sox will need to shuffle through quite a few starters. All six of their top options figure to spend ample time in the rotation this summer, and they’ll also have depth options like Crawford, Winckowski, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata as candidates for rotation work down in the minors.
Sergio Romo Signs Non-Roster Deal With Giants For Likely Final Appearance
Veteran reliever Sergio Romo has signed with the Giants on a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to Spring Training, according to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. According to Baggarly, the plan is for Romo to pitch in the team’s Bay Bridge exhibition against the A’s at Oracle Park towards the end of Spring Training as a farewell tour for Romo, who pitched in nine seasons for the Giants and won the World Series with the club in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Though he didn’t specifically use the word “retire,” the right-hander spoke very much like someone who expects this to be a ceremonial final stop.
“I’m not coming here to make a team,” Romo tells Baggarly. “I can’t make this team right now. Mainly I’m not trying to. I like where I am in life, seeing my kids as often as I can.”
Romo’s career began in San Francisco in 2008, his age-25 season. He impressed in his debut campaign, posting a 2.12 ERA in 34 innings of work. After a difficult 2009 season where Romo’s ERA was nearly two runs higher than his FIP, he returned to form in a 2010 season that would kick off a four-year stretch of utter dominance. During that time, he posted a sterling 2.03 ERA (178 ERA+) in 225 2/3 innings while striking out 261. That four-year stretch saw Romo collect two World Series rings (one of which he earned by striking out Miguel Cabrera to end the 2012 World Series) and his sole career All-Star appearance.
The 2014 season was something of a step back for Romo, however, even as his club won its third World Series in five years. Romo posted his first below average season of his career by ERA+. His 3.72 ERA was 7% worse than league average by that metric, and unlike his difficult 2009 season, his FIP wasn’t up to his previous standards either, standing at 3.94. Fortunately, Romo would return to form as an above-average reliever for his last two seasons in a Giants uniform, posting a 2.87 ERA (137 ERA+) in 88 innings of work, with an even stronger 2.57 FIP.
Ultimately, Romo was a phenomenal reliever during his tenure with San Francisco, pitching to a 2.58 ERA (146 ERA+) in 515 games while striking out 498 and collecting 87 saves. He also pitched well in the postseason, posting a 3.06 ERA in his 23 1/3 innings of work for the Giants in the postseason, including six scoreless appearances in World Series games.
In the six years following his departure from the Giants organization, Romo would pitch for seven different organizations: the Dodgers, Rays, Marlins, Twins, A’s, and Blue Jays. Despite those years accounting for his mid-to-late thirties, Romo was still a league average reliever during that time, with his 4.20 ERA over those 283 innings translating to an ERA+ of exactly 100.
In the event that this marks the end of his career, Romo, who celebrated his 40th birthday earlier this month, will have appeared in 821 regular season games while finishing 301 over his decade and a half tenure in the major leagues, with a 3.21 career ERA. He also racked up 137 saves and 204 holds along the way.