The Opener: NLCS, Managerial Openings, Blue Jays
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day today:
1. NLCS Game 2:
The Dodgers took home a hard-fought victory in Game 1 of the NLCS yesterday when Blake Treinen struck out Brice Turang with the bases loaded to preserve a one-run lead in the ninth inning. Now, the Brewers will be looking to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole before they head to L.A. for Game 3, while the Dodgers will try to keep the good times rolling and build on their lead.
The game is scheduled for 7:08pm local time, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.49 ERA) on the bump opposite Freddy Peralta (2.70 ERA). Yamamoto dominated the Reds in the Wild Card series with two runs (zero earned) and nine strikeouts across 6 2/3 innings of work, but he didn’t fare quite as well against the Phillies in the NLDS as he surrendered three runs in four innings of work. As for Peralta, he made two starts against the Cubs in the NLDS where he allowed five runs in 9 2/3 innings of work. While he struck out 15 batters, he also allowed three home runs.
2. Another manager job opens up:
Yesterday, Padres skipper Mike Shildt announced his decision to step down from the manager’s chair. That creates yet another opening in the dugout for an MLB club, and San Diego will now join the Giants, Braves, Orioles, Rockies, Angels, Twins, and Nationals in the hunt for a new manager. Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty has already emerged as a candidate in San Diego, and he’s getting a look in Baltimore, too. He’s surely far from the only candidate for either role, however, and with so many vacancies around the game it may take a little bit longer than usual for teams to find the right fit on the market.
3. Blue Jays in a bind:
After a dominant performance against the Yankees in the ALDS, the Blue Jays find themselves in a bind. Right-hander Trey Yesavage was unable to replicate his previous dominance and surrendered five runs in four innings of work to take the loss in what ultimately became a 10-3 win for Seattle. That leaves Toronto down two games as they head to the west coast for the next three games of the series. With the Mariners now enjoying a one-game cushion as they look to clinch a trip to the World Series at home, the Blue Jays will be looking for their offense to wake up and start scoring runs like they did against New York if they’re going to represent Canada in the World Series for the first time since 1993. The ALCS has no game today as the two teams travel to Seattle. Will the day off be enough for the Jays to bounce back?
The Opener: ALCS, NLCS, Lukes
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. ALCS Game 2:
After a solo homer by George Springer in the first inning, Bryce Miller and the Mariners’ bullpen managed to shut down a Blue Jays offense that throttled the Yankees in the division series to take Game 1 of the ALCS 3-1. Seattle will look to build on that lead later today with right-hander Logan Gilbert (3.44 ERA) on the mound, while the Blue Jays will turn to rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage (3.21 ERA) as they look to tie up the series before it heads to Seattle for Game 3. Yesavage is coming off a dominant performance against New York where he struck out 11 in 5 1/3 hitless innings, but Gilbert had a strong showing in the ALDS himself. He struck out seven Tigers across six innings of one-run ball in his lone start in the series before pitching two scoreless innings of relief in Seattle’s marathon Game 5 win over Detroit. The teams are set to face off at 5:03pm local time this evening in Toronto.
2. NLCS Game 1:
Just over three hours later, at 7:08pm local time in Milwaukee, the Brewers and Dodgers will kick off Game 1 of the NLCS. Left-hander Blake Snell (2.35 ERA) is slated to take the mound for L.A. He’s already come up with wins for the Dodgers against both the Reds and Phillies this October, combining for 13 innings of two-run ball with 18 strikeouts. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has not announced a starter but plans to go with an opener for the start of the game, with either Quinn Priester (3.32 ERA) or Jose Quintana (3.96 ERA) to follow as a bulk arm. Quintana was the far more effective of the two in the NLDS, as he threw three scoreless frames against Chicago while Priester surrendered four runs and recorded just two outs in his lone appearance.
3. Lukes day-to-day:
Turning back to the ALCS, Jays outfielder Nathan Lukes exited yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off of his knee. He was eventually diagnosed as a right knee contusion after x-rays came back negative. It’s a good sign for his availability at some point later in the series, but manager John Schneider told reporters yesterday that it wouldn’t be known if Lukes was available for today’s game. Lukes will be evaluated by the Jays’ medical staff when he arrives at the park today. If he’s unavailable, Davis Schneider or Myles Straw would likely step into the starting lineup in his place.
Nathan Lukes Exits ALCS Game 1 Due To Knee Contusion
Outfielder Nathan Lukes exited Game 1 of the ALCS during the fourth inning tonight after fouling a ball off of his knee earlier in the game. He was replaced by Myles Straw in the outfield, and manager John Schneider noted to Ken Rosenthal on the FOX Sports broadcast that Lukes was going to get an x-ray done on his ailing knee, and that the issue “looked more like a bruise” upon initial evaluation. The Blue Jays later announced that he had exited the game due to a right knee contusion and would undergo further evaluation. After the game, Schneider told reporters (including Mitch Bannon of The Athletic) that Lukes’s x-rays came back clean and would be back in the lineup tomorrow if medically cleared to play.
While it’s undoubtedly good news that Lukes avoided a fracture, the injury is still worrisome for the Jays. Lukes was only an average bat in the regular season this year, with a 103 wRC+ across 135 games, but in five playoff games so far this postseason he’s been a key piece of the Toronto lineup with a .286/.357/.429 slash line across his 14 plate appearances this October. Straw and Davis Schneider would be the most likely candidates to step into the lineup if Lukes were forced to miss time, and while they both were respectable pieces for the Jays this year, adding another right-handed bat to the lineup would be less than ideal against Seattle’s heavily right-handed pitching staff given that Lukes is a career 109 wRC+ hitter against righties.
It likely won’t be clear just how serious the bruise Lukes is dealing with is until tomorrow, when he’ll be re-evaluated to see if he can play. Players like Kyle Tucker, Mike Trout, and Cody Bellinger have missed significant time during the regular season in recent years due to bone bruises after fouling balls off of their knee or shin, though it’s unclear if Lukes’s ailment is at quite that level of severity. It’s entirely possible that Lukes is dealing with a much less serious contusion and won’t be at substantial risk for missing time, particularly given the fact that players will typically attempt to play through injuries they normally wouldn’t in the postseason.
With that being said, it’s worth keeping an eye on Lukes even if he’s able to play tomorrow. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the contusion was serious enough to impact his ability on the field. Even if he’s not impacted at the plate, he’ll surely be moving more gingerly on the bases and in the field than he normally would. With Schneider boasting a 127 wRC+ in the regular season and a 2-for-8 line with two walks in the posteason this year, it’s not hard to imagine a diminished Lukes no longer being preferable to start over Schneider, who could be brought into the lineup either by shifting Anthony Santander to right field and placing him in left, or moving Addison Barger to right field to open up third base for Ernie Clement so he can play second.
Guardians To Look For Outfield Upgrades This Winter
The Guardians managed to make a miracle run to not only squeak into the postseason, but pry the AL Central title away from the Tigers over the final weeks of the season. That wasn’t enough, however, to stop them from falling to their division rivals in the AL Wild Card series, sending them home just a few days into the postseason. Now that the offseason is upon them, Cleveland’s front office has turned its attention to the 2026 campaign. As Zack Meisel of The Athletic discussed earlier this week, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters in the aftermath of the Guardians’ loss that improving production in right and center field would be a priority this offseason.
That’s not necessarily a surprise. GM Mike Chernoff noted to reporters (including Meisel) that the club ranked 28th in runs per game this year, and described the offense as a “clear area” in need of improvement next season. Getting more offense out of the outfield should be the easiest way to do that by far, seeing as the Guardians ranked 29th in the majors with a 77 wRC+ from their outfielders this year. Part of that is due to left fielder Steven Kwan‘s down season, although he still posted a 99 wRC+ and seems to be a fairly safe bet to handle left for Cleveland again in 2026, barring a surprise trade.
While there’s little reason to worry about Kwan in left, the same can’t be said for the other two outfield spots. Angel Martinez, Nolan Jones, Lane Thomas, and Jhonkensy Noel handled most of the reps at those positions, and all four turned in negative WAR performances according to Fangraphs this season. Thomas will be hitting free agency after this year’s injury-marred campaign where he appeared in just 39 games. The other three will all remain under club control next year, but none inspires much confidence heading into next year.
Some opportunity for improvement could come from within. Chase DeLauter has not yet made his regular season debut but appeared in the Wild Card series, and Meisel relays that Antonetti expects him to compete for a roster spot in Spring Training next year. Rookie George Valera managed a 113 wRC+ in 16 games this year and could get an opportunity next year, as well. Perhaps an outfield of Kwan in left, DeLauter in center, and Valera in right could work out for the Guardians, but it seems fair to argue that at least one external addition will be necessary to offer some certainty, and perhaps help balance a trio of lefty-swinging outfielders with a right-handed hitter.
Reuniting with Thomas is at least plausible, but he’s hit just .189/.258/.340 in 92 games with the Guardians over the past two seasons and a change of scenery may be what’s best for both sides. Harrison Bader would be perhaps an ideal acquisition for the team, but it’s possible that his excellent work with the Phillies down the stretch (129 wRC+ in 50 games) may have put him out of Cleveland’s price range. Rob Refsnyder and Austin Hays are both also set to be available in free agency this winter. Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia and Astros outfielder Chas McCormick are both possible non-tender candidates who could help improve Cleveland’s outfield mix with a bounce-back season, as well.
Yomiuri Giants Interested In Kenta Maeda
The Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball have interest in acquiring veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda, according to a report from Yahoo Sports Japan. Maeda, 37, indicated back in August that he plans to leave MLB and return to Japan for the 2026 season, where he hopes to find a role in NPB.
The veteran’s decision to leave MLB behind isn’t exactly a surprise given how difficult the past two seasons have been for him. After he struggled to a 6.09 ERA in 112 1/3 innings of work with the Tigers in 2024, he failed to make the club’s rotation out of Spring Training and opened the season as a long relief option out of the bullpen. He ultimately wound up making just seven appearances, however, and allowed eight runs (seven earned) on nine hits, six walks, a home run and three hit batsmen while striking out eight across eight innings of work. He was ultimately released in early May, bringing the two-year, $24MM contract between the sides to a disappointing end.
Since being released by Detroit, Maeda has pitched in the minor leagues for both the Cubs and Yankees this year. In 20 starts between those two organizations, he pitched to a 5.40 ERA in 100 innings at the Triple-A level, with a 19.5% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate. With that said, he did improve a bit during his stint with the Yankees’ affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, as he posted a 4.64 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate over his final eight starts of the season. He ended his stateside career on a positive note when he threw five scoreless innings against the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons and struck out five batters.
Weak as Maeda’s results at the big league level have been over the past two years, one shouldn’t forget that he was a quality starter for several years for the Dodgers and Twins after making his big league debut back in 2016. Through the end of his age-35 campaign in 2023, Maeda had posted a career 3.92 ERA and 3.74 FIP in 866 1/3 regular season innings in the majors to go along with a strong postseason resume that saw him pitch to a 3.24 ERA and strike out 26.8% of his opponents in 41 2/3 playoff innings.
That solid track record in the majors, of course, came after eight seasons with NPB’s Hiroshima Carp. After breaking out during the 2010 season at the age of 22, Maeda posted six consecutive seasons with an ERA of 2.60 or lower across 175 innings or more for the Carp, including an eye-popping 1.53 ERA in 206 1/3 innings across 29 starts during the 2012 season. He made five All-Star games for Hiroshima, but now it’s possible that he’ll join a new club in his return to NPB next year given Yomiuri’s interest in his services. Of course, it’s also possible that the Carp (or another club) could express interest in Maeda’s services once the NPB offseason begins later this month.
Guardians Expect To Be Granted Fourth Option Year On Juan Brito
The Guardians expect to be granted a fourth option year on infield prospect Juan Brito, according to a report from Zack Meisel of The Athletic earlier this week.
Typically, players have three option seasons with one used each season during which the player spends at least 20 days on optional assignment in the minor leagues. A player is considered to be on optional assignment when on a club’s 40-man roster but sent to the minor leagues while not on a rehab assignment. Brito, 24, was selected to the 40-man roster in Cleveland in November of 2022 in a move that protected him from that year’s Rule 5 draft after he was acquired from the Rockies in exchange for Nolan Jones. Since then, Brito has been optioned to the minors in the 2023, ’24, and ’25 seasons with at least 20 days in the minors in each of those years.
Under normal circumstances, that would mean that Brito would have to be exposed to waivers before he could be sent back down to the minors starting in 2026. Occasionally, however, teams are granted a fourth option year on certain players, typically due to the player missing significant time with injury. MLB.com explains that players with less than five full professional seasons (defined as at least 90 days on a major or minor league active roster) are eligible for a fourth option year. That should certainly apply to Brito, who played full-season ball for the first time in 2022 and appeared in just 31 games this year between thumb and hamstring injuries that both ultimately required surgery. When fourth option years are granted to teams on their players, it’s most often in a situation like the one Cleveland now faces with Brito, where the player missed a significant amount of time due to injury during one of their option years.
Assuming the fourth option year is granted as expected, it should afford the Guardians additional flexibility as they look towards building their roster in 2026. Prior to his injury-marred 2025 season, Brito actually put together a strong performance in Spring Training and made a push for the Opening Day second base job, but the team ultimately cycled through Daniel Schneemann, Angel Martinez, and Gabriel Arias in that role before settling on Brayan Rocchio late in the year. All of those players wound up producing well below average results offensively, meaning that if Brito can return healthy and effective in 2026 there should be a path to big league reps for him barring an external addition that changes the makeup of the roster.
That’s especially true given how strong Brito’s results were in his limited sample of healthy games. After hitting .256/.365/.443 with 21 homers and 40 doubles at Triple-A in 2024, he more or less replicated that line in 99 plate appearances at the level this year where he slashed .256/.357/.463 with a 13.1% walk rate against a 21.2% strikeout rate. Even if Brito ends up winning the job come March, however, it’s not uncommon for rookie players to be optioned back to the minors at some point in their rookie season if they begin to struggle to give them a lower pressure environment in which to develop.
Latest On Giants’ Managerial Search
As Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey conducts his first managerial search, John Shea of the San Francisco Standard reports that he’s spoken to an intriguing name: former Orioles manager Brandon Hyde. Shea does not clarify whether or not the conversation was part of Posey’s search for a new manager or even if either side has clear interest in Hyde taking over for Bob Melvin in San Francisco, but the conversation between the two is noteworthy nonetheless.
After all, Hyde would make plenty of sense as a manager for the Giants. Like Melvin before him, Hyde is a Bay Area native who has had success managing a small market team in the past. Ignoring a one-game stint as manager of the Marlins back in 2011, Hyde’s time in the manager’s chair has been spent entirely in Baltimore. He managed the club from 2019 until he was fired back in May, and in doing so led the club through a lengthy rebuild, exceeded all expectations with a surprisingly competitive 2022 season, and then build on that success to deliver a 101-win campaign to Baltimore in 2023 en route to an AL Manager of the Year award.
Hyde’s 421-492 record with the Orioles leaves much to be desired, though it must be viewed through the lens of a club that had no intentions of competing during the first three seasons he spent in the organization. The early-season disaster the Orioles suffered under Hyde this year is an undeniable blemish that can’t be excused as the trials of managing a rebuilding club, but he’s nonetheless well-respected around the game. Former Rockies manager Bud Black told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last month that he believes Hyde will be managing again “soon,” and for his part Hyde indicated to Nightengale that he does hope to return to the dugout as soon as next season. Perhaps that opportunity could come with the Giants, his hometown team.
Of course, while there’s a plausible fit between Hyde and the Giants that doesn’t mean that he’ll be hired or even necessarily interview for the position. Shea notes that Rangers special assistant (and former Giants catcher) Nick Hundley is “fast becoming the popular choice” to replace Melvin and highlights his strong relationship with Posey, who he served as the backup for during his time as a player in San Francisco. Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic takes things a step forward and reports that Hundley is “considered the favorite” for the job in San Francisco, before adding that he’s not believed to be considering any managerial opportunities besides the Giants’ vacancy.
Hundley has been a known candidate for the job for some time now, and has already interviewed for the role, but the fact that he’s considered the favorite is new information. Former All-Star catcher Kurt Suzuki and Guardians associate manager Craig Albernaz are both known to be candidates for the role in San Francisco as well.
Dodgers Notes: Rotation, Bench, Hernandez
The Dodgers don’t yet know whether they’ll be heading to Milwaukee to face the Brewers or welcoming the Cubs into Dodger Stadium for Monday’s series opener of the NLCS, but that’s not stopping them from making plans for the series. In particular, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including MLB.com’s Sonja Chen) this afternoon that he expects the club to carry at least one more pitcher on their roster for the upcoming series after carrying 11 (plus Shohei Ohtani) in the NLDS against the Phillies.
That will consequently mean shortening up a bench that was six players deep during this past series. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register suggests that utility man Hyeseong Kim and outfielder Justin Dean are the most likely candidates to be left off the NLCS roster. Kim, 26, has a wRC+ of 95 in 71 regular seasons games this year in his rookie campaign after signing with the Dodgers out of South Korea during the offseason. He’s primarily played second base this year but has also made cameos at shortstop and in center field. Dean, meanwhile, has just two plate appearances in the majors this year as he’s been used almost exclusively as a pinch runner by Los Angeles. He does have a stolen base this postseason, however, while Kim has made just appearance so far across L.A.’s two series.
Alex Call, Ben Rortvedt, and Miguel Rojas have all drawn starts in the playoffs already and seem likely to once again be parts of the bench mix headed into the NLCS. Dalton Rushing has seen virtually no playing time so far, but might be needed insurance for the Dodgers at the catcher position given that Will Smith is playing through a hairline fracture in his throwing hand. Keeping Rushing on the roster would mean that the Dodgers will have two catchers available even if Smith needs a game or two off at some point to manage the injury. Without a three-catcher setup, a day or two off for Smith would likely necessitate a placement on the injured list, which would then make him unavailable for the World Series if the Dodgers were to advance.
One player that definitely won’t be removed from the roster, it seems, is utility man Enrique Hernandez. Hernandez has served as the club’s starting left fielder this postseason and, while he’s known to have been nursing a day-to-day back injury since the Wild Card series against Cincinnati, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic relays that Hernandez is doing fine in spite of that injury and that the days off between the end of the NLDS and the start of the NLCS should help him get healthy. Hernandez has long been excellent in the postseason and that hasn’t changed this year, with a .318/.400/.409 slash line (132 wRC+) across 25 plate appearances.
Turning back to the rotation, Roberts indicated to reporters (including Chen) that despite both Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto needing extra rest built in between their starts, he does not anticipate the Dodgers needing more than four starters for their upcoming seven game set. That quartet figures to be the aforementioned duo of Ohtani and Yamamoto, plus Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan have both been available to provide length out of the bullpen so far, and headed into the NLCS it’s possible someone like Ben Casparius or Andrew Heaney is added to the playoff roster to give the team another long relief option.
Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Scherzer, Bassitt
The Blue Jays put together an impressive win in four games over the Yankees in the ALDS this past week, and it’s all the more impressive when one considers that they managed to pull it off without one of their star players. Shortstop Bo Bichette has been on the injured list since early September due to a left knee sprain, and did not participate in the Division Series as a result. With the ALCS against the Mariners scheduled to start tomorrow, it seems a decision on Bichette’s status has not yet been made.
Earlier this afternoon, Ben Nicholson Smith of Sportsnet relayed that, per Jays manager John Schneider, Bichette hit against live pitching yesterday and ran the bases today. Schneider added that how Bichette responds to that uptick in activity will help to determine whether or not he’s rostered for the ALCS. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com expanded on that, noting that Schneider suggested the decision on Bichette would be one of the last ones they would make before rosters are announced tomorrow morning. Per Matheson, Bichette still appeared to be experiencing discomfort when he ran the bases today, and he suggested that Bichette might be confined to a DH-only role if he does return to action.
As Matheson notes, a DH role for Bichette would push George Springer into the outfield and force a fellow outfielder like Nathan Lukes or Anthony Santander out of the lineup. That’s surely only something they would do if they were confident that Bichette was healthy enough to contribute substantially at the plate. On the other hand, if Bichette isn’t quite ready to return but making enough progress, Toronto could opt to roster him even if he wouldn’t be available for Game 1. That would come with substantial risk, however, as if he was placed back on the injured list at some point in the ALCS he would not be eligible for the World Series if the Jays advance.
Moving on to the rotation, Toronto made the somewhat bold decision to leave both Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer off their ALDS roster. Both veteran starters were left off for understandable reasons; Scherzer struggled badly late in the year, while Bassitt wasn’t fully stretched out after being placed on the injured list in late September. That was fine for a five-game set where the team could lean heavily on Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Shane Bieber to handle starting duties, but Schneider acknowledged to reporters (including Nicholson-Smith) that both Bassitt and Scherzer will be in the mix for the club’s roster given the need for “more length” in a seven-game series. All of those roster decisions will be made by 9am CT tomorrow morning, when rosters are due for both clubs.
Pete Alonso Expected To Seek Seven-Year Deal In Free Agency
First baseman Pete Alonso is ticketed for a second consecutive trip through free agency, as he told reporters when the regular season came to a close that he intends to opt out of the final year of his contract and return to the open market. He won’t officially become a free agent until five days after the World Series concludes, but whispers about Alonso’s asking price as he returns to the market have already begun to percolate. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, Alonso is expected to seek at least a seven-year deal as he returns to free agency.
It’s natural for players to set a high bar for contract negotiations entering free agency, but it would be something of a surprise if Alonso was able to secure that sort of arrangement. A seven-year pact would cover the slugger’s age-31 through -37 seasons, and that’s the sort of rarefied air that’s difficult for a defensively limited slugger to reach in free agency. Dodgers star Freddie Freeman is signed through age-37, but Freeman is an MVP winner and future Hall of Famer. It’s hard to argue Alonso is in that same stratosphere, and few other first basemen have managed to get that sort of long-term security.
Paul Goldschmidt‘s extension with the Cardinals back in 2019 was for just five years and $130MM, ending after his age-36 campaign, and Matt Olson‘s eight-year, $168MM contract extension with Atlanta is guaranteed only through his age-35 season. Both Goldschmidt and Olson were also Gold Glove winners for their work at first base when they signed those deals, while Alonso is viewed both by defensive metrics and many scouts as one of the game’s weaker first basemen defensively. While Puma points to Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman as fellow Boras clients who managed to land contracts in a similar range to what Alonso is expected to seek, it also must be noted that Chapman actually signed a six-year extension with the Giants after he had already been in the fold on a short-term deal similar to the one Alonso will be opting out of.
More importantly, Semien was a shortstop when he signed with the Rangers, and Chapman is a multi-time Gold Glove winner at third base. When it comes to financial expectations for infielders higher on the defensive spectrum, the bar is simply much different than it is for first basemen. That’s part of why players like Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa who have found themselves taking similar short-term contracts with high average annual values in free agency to the one Alonso signed last winter have been able to secure a higher AAV than Alonso did on a two-year pact. The same principle extends to larger deals, and helps to explain why someone like Xander Bogaerts managed to land a contract that will pay him through his age-40 campaign despite much less robust offensive numbers than someone like Alonso can offer.
Even if Alonso is unable to land the seven-year guarantee he appears to covet, it should still be expected that he’ll make out far better in free agency this time around than he did last season. After all, he’s no longer encumbered by draft pick compensation after rejecting a Qualifying Offer from the Mets last winter. That means a team that signs him away from Queens won’t have to forfeit draft capital in order to bring him into the fold, and that reality is likely to help his market a great deal. In addition, Alonso enjoyed a much stronger platform season this year than he did in 2024. This season, Alonso appeared in 162 games for the second consecutive season and slashed .277/.347/.524 with a wRC+ of 141, which tied his 2022 campaign for the second-best mark of his career.
Alonso famously rejected a seven-year, $158MM extension offer from the Mets back in 2023. That deal would have covered the last year of his arbitration eligibility, for which he ultimately received $20.5MM. In other words, he’ll need to make more than $137.5MM between 2025 and 2030 in order to surpass that benchmark. He made $30MM this year, meaning he’ll need to beat $107.5MM over the next five seasons if he’s going to exceed the value of that extension he passed on. It seems very safe to bet on him to do just that at this point.
Goldschmidt’s extension with the Cardinals, which covered his age-32 to -36 seasons, netted him $130MM over five years. While Goldschmidt’s 145 career wRC+ at the time of that deal was far stronger than Alonso’s career 132 wRC+ entering this offseason, Alonso will be entering his age-31 season when his next contract begins and will benefit from more than half a decade of inflation since St. Louis inked that deal just before the 2019 season began. Considering that he wouldn’t even need to match Goldschmidt’s guarantee in order to beat that 2023 extension offer, it seems safe to say that Alonso will come out ahead in free agency this year so long as he doesn’t have to settle for another short-term agreement.