The Opener: Ford, Eovaldi, Mets
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Ford on the way?
Top prospect Harry Ford traveled with the Mariners to Texas for their series against the Rangers and could be in line to make his major league debut this weekend, per Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. As Daniel Kramer of MLB.com notes, Ford was scratched from the Triple-A Tacoma lineup yesterday after veteran catcher Mitch Garver left yesterday’s game when a foul tip struck his chin/neck area. Garver is slated to undergo further evaluation today, and if he requires a trip to the injured list Seattle is expected to select Ford’s contract to serve as the backup to Cal Raleigh. Ford, the 12th overall pick in the 2021 draft, is not yet on the 40-man roster. The Mariners have an open spot after Rowdy Tellez was designated for assignment earlier this week, however, and would not need to make a corresponding move beyond placing Garver on the IL. Through 60 games at Triple-A this year, Ford is hitting .311/.426/.469 (135 wRC+) with eight home runs, a huge 15.5% walk rate and just a 17% strikeout rate.
2. Eovaldi to return:
While Ford’s status for the upcoming series between the Mariners and Rangers is up in the air, there’s one roster addition in the series that’s more or less assured at this point: right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has been announced as today’s probable starter for the Rangers after a month spent on the injured list due to triceps inflammation. The veteran right-hander was in the midst of a Cy Young-caliber season when he hit the shelf due to injury, with a 1.56 ERA and 2.32 FIP across 12 starts. He’ll try to pick up where he left off at 7:05pm local time in Dallas against Seattle ace Logan Gilbert, who recently returned from the injured list himself and has a 3.12 ERA in eight starts this year.
3. Mets roster moves incoming?
The Mets lost a key piece of their rotation yesterday when right-hander Griffin Canning suffered what is believed to be an Achilles injury. Will Sammon of The Athletic writes that righty Blade Tidwell, one of the club’s top pitching prospects, is expected to join the Mets in Pittsburgh for this weekend’s series. An off-day on the schedule for Monday means a fifth starter won’t be needed for some time, so it’s not a guarantee that Tidwell is going to slot into the rotation in Canning’s place. Sammon also suggests that there could be additional roster moves on the way beyond the anticipated swap of Canning for Tidwell. Right-handers Justin Garza, Tyler Zuber, and Chris Devenski are among the pure relief options already on the 40-man roster who the Mets could use to freshen up their bullpen after they covered 7 1/3 innings following Canning’s early exit last night.
Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In
While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:
The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.
For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.
Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.
Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.
Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.
Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.
Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.
There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.
Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.
Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.
This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.
As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).
Other Options
The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.
Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:
Who Will Be The AL Cy Young Winner In 2025?
-
Tarik Skubal 46% (2,917)
-
Max Fried 25% (1,609)
-
Garrett Crochet 11% (679)
-
Hunter Brown 8% (531)
-
Jacob deGrom 7% (437)
-
Other (Specify In Comments) 1% (92)
-
Kris Bubic 1% (84)
Total votes: 6,349
The Opener: Kershaw, Tigers, Imanaga
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Kershaw on the cusp of 3,000 strikeouts:
Three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is a future Hall of Famer and one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. He’s now seven starts into his 2025 campaign, and in that time he’s pitched to a 3.31 ERA in 32 2/3 innings of work despite a strikeout rate of just 17.6%. That low strikeout rate has become the norm for the 37-year-old in recent years, but it hasn’t stopped him from challenging for one of the most coveted milestones for a starting pitcher. The southpaw currently sits at 2,992 strikeouts for his career, meaning that he’s just eight away from becoming the 20th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3,000. With a vintage performance against the Rockies at Coors Field later today, he’d have the opportunity to add that milestone to his legacy. Kershaw and Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber (8.38 ERA in two starts) are scheduled to take the mound at 1:10pm local time this afternoon. Kershaw hasn’t topped seven strikeouts in a start this season, but the Rockies’ 27.5% team strikeout rate against lefties is the second-highest mark in MLB.
2. Tigers 40-man move incoming:
Earlier this week, it was reported that the Tigers would be adding southpaw Dietrich Enns to the roster ahead of today’s game. The 34-year-old last appeared in the majors in 2021, when he posted a 2.82 ERA in 22 1/3 frames for the Rays. He has a 2.89 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts for the Toledo Mud Hens this year after signing a minor league deal with the Tigers in the offseason, and now he’ll get the opportunity to face the A’s and southpaw Jeffrey Springs (4.24 ERA) at 1:10pm local time in Detroit. Before that can happen, the Tigers will need to make a corresponding move to create 40-man roster space. That could come by way of an injured player heading to the 60-day injured list or Detroit brass working out a trade, but since Detroit doesn’t have an obvious 60-day IL candidate, the most likely outcome is a player being designated for assignment.
3. Imanaga to return:
It’s been almost two months since southpaw Shota Imanaga went down with a hamstring strain, and while the Cubs have managed to go 26-19 without his help in the rotation, the cracks have begun to show in recent weeks. While Matthew Boyd has pitched like a front-of-the-rotation arm in his first healthy season in half a decade and Cade Horton has done admirable work in his rookie campaign so far, the rest of the rotation has scuffled.
Ben Brown was recently optioned after getting torched to a 7.65 ERA across his last seven starts. Colin Rea has a 5.92 ERA in nine starts since Imanaga went down. Even typically steady veteran Jameson Taillon has a 5.86 ERA in June after back-to-back blow up starts. Imanaga, who had a 2.82 ERA in eight starts this year before going on the injured list, will look to help stop the bleeding in the rotation and turn the Cubs’ rotation around. His first opportunity to do so will come against the Cardinals and right-hander Andre Pallante (4.48 ERA) later today in a game scheduled for 1:15pm local time.
Poll: NL MVP Race Check-In
While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Who are the frontrunners to claim the MVP Award this offseason? MLBTR’s look at the American League saw Aaron Judge come away with 55% of the vote, and today we’ll be checking out the National League:
The reigning NL MVP hasn’t slowed down much after his 50-50 2024 campaign. Ohtani is slashing an incredible .289/.388/.627 (174 wRC+) through 78 games this year, with 27 home runs and 11 steals during that time. His status as a DH holds him back somewhat in terms of WAR, but he’s still second in the NL among hitters according to Fangraphs. He leads the league in homers and slugging percentage and clocks in within the top five in terms of on-base percentage. Ohtani’s expected numbers are quite good as well, as his .435 xwOBA is actually better than his wOBA and trails only Juan Soto among NL hitters. Of course, the real ace in the hole for Ohtani is the fact that he’s returning to pitching this year. He’s only thrown two innings so far, but his stuff has looked good in those abbreviated outings and he figures to only ramp up the volume as the season progresses.
Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season until he either starts facing significant decline or retires from pitching. That said, he does not currently hold sole possession of the NL lead for fWAR even when combining his pitching and hitting numbers this year. His offensive numbers have not been quite as robust as they were last year, and he notably is not stealing bases anywhere near as frequently as he did when he was the second most valuable baserunner in the NL last season. For a player who’s won an MVP award in three of the last four seasons, voter fatigue can be a consideration as well; just ask Ohtani’s former teammate Mike Trout about the 2015 season. Will those potential weak spots be enough to let another player overcome him?
The dynamic 23-year-old’s breakout has been one of the biggest stories in the entire sport this year. Despite entering the 2025 season as a career 82 wRC+ hitter across parts of two seasons in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has slashed .273/.310/.563 (140 wRC+) across 78 games. That’s a very low on-base percentage for an MVP candidate, but Crow-Armstrong makes up for that flaw by being elite in every other regard. He’s fifth in the NL with 21 home runs, his 24 stolen bases are second only to Oneil Cruz, and he’s one of the most valuable defenders in the entire sport with +10 Outs Above Average. Taken together, it’s enough to give Crow-Armstrong a 4.0 fWAR figure that leads the league among hitters, and is tied with Ohtani when the latter’s work on the mound is factored in.
For those less statistically inclined, the fact that his breakout has been key to the Cubs’ ascent from mediocrity to become one of the league’s heavyweights could hold value with voters who differentiate between the “most valuable” player in the league and the “best” player in the league. Even with all of that going for him, it’s hard to consider Crow-Armstrong the favorite. Ohtani’s star power and uniqueness as a two-way player is difficult to match, and if he’s able to pitch effectively throughout the second half, it will be very difficult for Crow-Armstrong to not fall behind on the WAR leaderboard. What’s more, advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical of his offensive performance this year, as his .356 xwOBA is 16 points lower than his actual wOBA of .372. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline issues go beyond his anemic walk rate; he swings more often than any qualified hitter in baseball but has a below-average contact rate both overall and more specifically on pitches within the strike zone.
He’s lagging behind both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong at this point, but Wood has been every bit the phenom the Nationals hoped he would be when acquiring him as part of the Juan Soto trade back in 2022. He’s hitting .281/.377/.561 (158 wRC+) in 80 games to go along with nine steals and solid defense in left field. His underlying offensive metrics are also immaculate, with top of the scale expected numbers, elite bat speed, and a 99th percentile barrel rate. It’s an exciting offensive performance, particularly from a player who’s just 22 years old. Some MVP voters could also hold the fact that Wood and his Nationals are not contenders against the budding young star.
Tatis is a familiar face in the NL MVP race, as he finished fourth for the award in 2020 before coming in third the following year. Injuries, a PED suspension, and a move from shortstop to right field have all changed the way Tatis is viewed around the league in the years since. That hasn’t stopped him from remaining a force within the Padres lineup, and this year he’s been one of the better all-around players in the NL. He’s slashing .264/.352/.459 (129 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals, and his defensive value is second only to Crow-Armstrong among NL outfielders. Tatis also benefits from strong underlying numbers; his .390 xwOBA is 37 points higher than his .353 wOBA, and if he can play closer to those expected numbers in the second half, he could push his way up to the top of some ballots.
Other Options
While Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong appear to be the clear frontrunners at this point, Wood and Tatis aren’t the only potential challengers. Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a sensational season and was right there in the mix with the top two until news a wrist fracture yesterday left it uncertain when he’ll take the field next. Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker have both been excellent and could find themselves more firmly in this conversation if things break right in the second half. Will Smith is one of the league’s top hitters this year with a 170 wRC+ made all the more impressive by his status as a regular catcher, but he’s only played in 63 games so far.
Juan Soto‘s first half has been somewhat disappointing by his standards (147 wRC+), but he’s on an absolute tear right now and his .458 xwOBA is right in line with last year’s monster performance. Elly De La Cruz is flirting with pace for a 40-40 season but hasn’t been nearly as rangy at shortstop this season in the eyes of defensive metrics, which has weighed him down a bit. He could still easily emerge as a candidate with a big second half. Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler are all in the midst of dominant seasons on the mound, but it’s somewhat rare for a pitcher to win the MVP award.
Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in NL MVP voting? Will Ohtani reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Crow-Armstrong step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:
Who Will Be The NL MVP In 2025?
-
Shohei Ohtani 57% (3,211)
-
Pete Crow-Armstrong 26% (1,457)
-
Other (Specify In Comments) 7% (406)
-
Fernando Tatis Jr. 5% (279)
-
James Wood 5% (263)
Total votes: 5,616
The Opener: Scherzer, Neto, Pitchers’ Duel
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Scherzer to be activated:
Veteran right-hander Max Scherzer is set to be activated from the 60-day injured list today. Scherzer made just one start for Toronto before going on the shelf due to a nagging thumb issue. For a Blue Jays team in clear need of starting pitching reinforcements, Scherzer’s return should be reason for optimism, given his Hall of Fame caliber resume and career 3.16 ERA. Scherzer will need to be re-added to the 40-man roster once activated. The Jays opened a spot when Erik Swanson was released earlier this week but then acquired Robinson Pina yesterday. Scherzer is scheduled to take the mound in Cleveland against right-hander Gavin Williams (3.58 ERA) at 6:40pm local time.
2. Zach Neto to undergo MRI:
The Angels are facing a potential injury scare today after shortstop Zach Neto was removed from yesterday’s game. Neto told reporters (including Jack Janes of The Sporting Tribune) last night that he’s dealing with some “soreness” in his shoulder after sliding into second base on an attempted steal and that he will undergo an MRI today to determine the severity of the issue. The 24-year-old added that he isn’t concerned about his shoulder and is just being cautious after undergoing shoulder surgery back in November. Scott Kingery took over the position after Neto departed the game and could be in line for reps at shortstop if Neto misses time. In 262 plate appearances this season, Neto is batting .278/.321/.494 (125 wRC+) with a dozen homers and 13 stolen bases.
3. Pitchers’ duel in the NL Central:
A battle of exciting young pitching talents is scheduled to take place tonight in Milwaukee, as top Brewers prospect Jacob Misiorowski will take the mound for his third career start after posting a 1.64 ERA with a 28.9% strikeout rate (and a less-appealing 13.2% walk rate) across 11 innings in his first two appearances. Misiorowski’s opponent will be Pirates ace Paul Skenes, the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year, a finalist for the 2024 NL Cy Young Award, and an early frontrunner for the Cy Young this season. Skenes has pitched to a phenomenal 1.85 ERA in 16 starts across 102 innings of work this year, striking out 27.2% of his opponents against a 6.9% walk rate. He’s allowed only five home runs (0.44 HR/9). The two young flamethrowers will face off at 1:10pm local time this afternoon.
The Opener: Burns, Simpson, MLBTR Chat
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:
1. Chase Burns to make MLB debut:
It’s a big day for fans of the Reds, as top pitching prospect and second overall pick in last year’s draft Chase Burns is set to make his major league debut today. He’ll take the mound at Great American Ball Park against Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon (3.10 ERA) in a game scheduled for 7:10pm local time. Burns has been sensational through 13 starts across three levels of the minors this year, combining for a 1.77 ERA and 36.8% strikeout rate in 66 innings. Even when zeroing in on just his two starts at Triple-A, Burns has been quite impressive with a 2.19 ERA and 30.4% strikeout rate in 12 1/3 innings of work. His rapid ascent through the minors and dominance at every level has made it clear he’s ready for the challenge of the big leagues, though the Yankees are a tough first assignment given that they lead the AL in runs scored and wRC+.
2. Simpson to return:
One of the sport’s fastest players is headed back to the majors. As noted by Adam Berry of MLB.com, the Rays are poised to recall Chandler Simpson from the minors today to take over center field duties from the recently-optioned Kameron Misner. Simpson stole a whopping 19 bases in just 35 games (22 attempts) and batted .285/.315/.317 (85 wRC+) during his first stint in the majors earlier this year. In conjunction with some lackluster defense in center field, that lack of power and paltry 4.5% walk rate resulted in Simpson returning to the minors at the beginning of June. Since then, he’s hit a robust .366/.416/.465 at the Triple-A level. He’ll get another opportunity as the Rays face the Royals at Kauffman Stadium tonight, where he’ll be tested by southpaw Kris Bubic (2.12 ERA).
3. MLBTR Chat today:
With just over a month to go until the July 31 trade deadline, chatter about trade season has already begun in earnest. While it will be difficult for another in-season blockbuster to top the Devers deal from earlier this month, a handful of smaller deals have started to come together around the league as well. Whether you’re looking ahead to the deadline or still trying to sort between the contenders and pretenders, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In
While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. With an MVP set to be crowned in both leagues after the season, that means two players are already halfway through a year that will earn them the sport’s most prestigious individual award. Who are the frontrunners to claim the trophy for themselves this offseason? We’ll be looking at both leagues over the next two days, starting with the American League:
Major stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker have migrated to the National League in recent years, but Judge would arguably have entered the season as the odds-on favorite even if he were still competing with them. The slugger already won the MVP award in both 2022 and ’24. Ohtani won back-to-back MVP awards in 2023 and ’24, but those were for two different teams in two different leagues. Judge would be the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in the same league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13. Uncommon as the feat may be, Judge seems well positioned to pull it off. His .367/.468/.727 (225 wRC+) slash line is nothing short of comical, and he already has an absurd 6.0 WAR season according to Fangraphs through just 77 games.
That’s a higher total than stars like Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were able to cobble together in a full slate of games last year, and it’s hard to argue with those numbers. Dominant as Judge has been, however, it must be pointed out that he’s currently benefiting from an eye-popping .453 BABIP. That figure is 100 points higher than his career mark, which is already at the high end of the spectrum for sustainable BABIP figures. It would be the highest BABIP by a qualified player since 1871 if he were to maintain it over a full season, and just the second time a player posted a BABIP of even .400 since 2002, joining Yoan Moncada‘s 2019 campaign.
If anyone has a chance to challenge Judge for the title, Raleigh likely has the best shot. He’s hit a whopping 31 home runs this season to capture the MLB-wide lead, and his .276/.383/.659 (191 wRC+) slash line is almost as incredible as that of Judge. Raleigh’s 5.1 fWAR is second in the majors to Judge as well, and he’s even managed to chip in on the bases by swiping nine bags in 11 opportunities. Of course, the most impressive thing about Raleigh’s season is that he’s doing all of this while playing the game’s most taxing defensive position. He’s caught 58 of the 75 games he’s appeared in, and if he keeps this up over the full season he’d surpass legendary seasons by Buster Posey in 2012 and Johnny Bench in 1972 to put together the best season behind the plate in MLB history.
The biggest obstacle to Raleigh turning this first-half momentum into an MVP win is, of course, Judge. While Raleigh has the edge in terms of baserunning, defense, home runs, and strikeout rate, Judge is leading in WAR, wRC+, walk rate, all three triple slash categories, and games played. There’s no question about whose season has been more productive when stripping away the context of Raleigh’s position, and Judge might need to cool off significantly in the second half just for their numbers to be comparable when all is said and done.
After finishing second to Judge in 2024 AL MVP voting with a stellar campaign, Witt is back at it this year with another banner year. His elite shortstop glove has made him the second most valuable defender in baseball according to Fangraphs, and he’s already stolen 21 bases after swiping just 31 total last year. With that being said, the power that allowed him to swat 32 homers last year has taken a big step back. The drop off in power has left him with a .286/.343/.490 (123 wRC+) slash line that’s well above average but not quite MVP-caliber, and he would likely need to turn things up a notch in the second half and benefit from steps backward by Judge and Raleigh in order to have a chance at coming home with the trophy.
Perhaps the most surprising entrant into this list, Pena has never so much as made an All-Star appearance in his career but is in the midst of an incredible season. He’s slashed .326/.380/.493 (149 wRC+) in 78 games so far this year with 11 homers and 15 steals in 17 attempts alongside an excellent 16.1% strikeout rate. That wRC+ is seventh-highest among qualified AL hitters, and Pena benefits further from playing a valuable defensive position in shortstop. With that being said, he’s not quite on the level of Witt defensively and his .365 BABIP is elevated well outside the range of his career norms. Like Witt, he’ll likely need a massive slowdown in production from Judge and Raleigh in order to be a serious contender for the award this year.
Other Options
Judge, Raleigh, Witt, and Pena are all more or less in a class of their own at this point in the season, and even Witt and Pena would need a lot to go right in order for them to catch the two front-runners. With that being said, there are some other at least plausible candidates. Tarik Skubal continues to dominate on the mound and his 3.9 fWAR tally matches that of Witt and Pena. Jose Ramirez remains as consistent as ever and could put up another 30-30 season this year. Jonathan Aranda has been one of baseball’s best hitters this year but doesn’t play a premium position. Byron Buxton has flashed all five tools this year with strong defense, elite speed, and a 155 wRC+ but will have trouble garnering much attention with just 60 games played so far.
Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL MVP voting? Will Judge reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Raleigh step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will be the AL MVP in 2025?
-
Aaron Judge 55% (4,111)
-
Cal Raleigh 37% (2,796)
-
Other (Specify In Comments) 3% (202)
-
Jeremy Pena 3% (198)
-
Bobby Witt Jr. 2% (173)
Total votes: 7,480
The Opener: Athletics, Orioles, Cubs, Cardinals
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Athletics groundbreaking ceremony in Las Vegas:
The A’s are scheduled to finally break ground on their planned ballpark in Las Vegas this morning, nine months after they played their final game in Oakland. The ceremony is scheduled for 8am local time. According to Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review Journal, the ceremony will feature an appearance from MLB commissioner Rob Manfred in addition to a number of local- and state-level government officials. Akers suggests that they’ll be joined by A’s ownership, executives, and alumni at the event. The A’s have today off, but with a game scheduled for tomorrow evening in Detroit it’s unlikely that any current players will make appearances at the ceremony.
2. Orioles examining catcher following collision:
The very same day Adley Rutschman was placed on the injured list due to an oblique strain, the Orioles may have lost another catcher when backup Maverick Handley collided with Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. as Chisholm attempted to score. As noted by MLB.com’s Jake Rill, O’s manager Tony Mansolino told reporters after the game that Handley’s “full body” was being evaluated and that placing the 27-year-old in the concussion protocol had not been ruled out. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Handley ended up needing a trip to the injured list, at which point Baltimore would need to make a 40-man roster move to bring up a depth catcher like David Banuelos or Chadwick Tromp.
3. Series Preview: Cubs @ Cardinals
One of the league’s most storied rivalries has yet to face off in 2025, but that changes tonight when the Cubs take the field in St. Louis against the Cardinals in a game scheduled for 6:45pm local time. St. Louis is currently 4.5 games back of Chicago for the NL Central lead, meaning a sweep of this four-game set could but them within spitting distance of the division lead. It would likely put them in playoff position as well, given that they’re just one game back in the NL Wild Card race. As for the Cubs, a strong showing in this series could help them turn things around after a middling stretch of play that’s seen them go 7-8 over their past 15 games.
Right-hander Ben Brown (5.57 ERA) will face off against southpaw Matthew Liberatore (4.08 ERA) in tonight’s game. Cubs veteran Jameson Taillon (3.84 ERA) is the only other announced starter for the series, but The Athletic’s Katie Woo and Sahadev Sharma write that right-hander Michael McGreevy (2.70 ERA in 3 appearances) and southpaw Shota Imanaga (2.82 ERA in eight starts) are expected to take the mound during the series at some point as well.
Mets Option Francisco Alvarez
The Mets announced today that they’ve optioned catcher Francisco Alvarez to Triple-A. Catcher Hayden Senger was called up to take Alvarez’s spot on the active roster.
Alvarez, 23, is in the midst of his fourth MLB season. He played just five games in the majors in 2022, however, and entered the 2023 campaign a consensus top-10 prospect in the entire sport. He hit a respectable .209/.284/.437 (97 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 123 games during that rookie campaign while grading out as one of the sport’s best defensive catchers. It was a strong enough showing to make Alvarez a lock to serve as the Mets’ regular catcher in 2024, but was sidelined by a hand injury that ultimately required him to undergo surgery on his thumb and miss nearly two months. Alvarez was able to hit a respectable .237/.307/.403 (102 wRC+) last year, roughly league average production despite a sharp decline in power output.
While Alvarez’s overall offensive line was on par with expectations in 2024, there were still reasons for concern. His once-elite defense was just average in 2024 as his blocking ability went from average to the second percentile among qualifying catchers per Statcast. His pitch framing numbers also slipped slightly, though they still remained elite. In addition to the step back defensively, Alvarez’s power outage last year led underlying metrics to judge his performance at the plate more harshly last year; his xwOBA dropped from .305 in 2023 to just .289 in 2024 despite his wOBA remaining steady at .310 across both seasons.
2025 started out on a familiarly tough note for Alvarez, as he missed the start of the season due to surgery on his left hand—this time to repair a fractured hamate bone. Since making his season debut on April 25, Alvarez has hit just .236/.319/.333 with a wRC+ of 91. That’s not terrible for the standards of the catcher position, but it’s still a far cry from the roughly league average production he had posted for his career entering this year. He’s also hitting for even less power than last year, with just three home runs and three doubles in 35 games. An 8.2% barrel rate suggests that might be due to some lackluster batted ball luck, but further steps backward defensively aren’t as easy to dismiss.
Alvarez has remained below average as a blocker behind the plate after last year’s rough showing, and he’s now become one of the worst framing catchers in the league after that was his strong suit in his career prior to this season. While he’s stayed somewhat valuable by throwing out opposing base runners at an elite rate, Alvarez has fallen off to the point of becoming an average to below average catcher overall based on his numbers this year. Between his offense trending downward and his uncharacteristically lackluster defense behind the plate, the Mets clearly felt it was time to send him to the minors for a reset.
It’s a sign of urgency for a club that recently lost seven consecutive games before snapping that losing streak with a win over the Phillies last night. The Mets are in a statistical tie with Philadelphia for the NL East title at the moment, which puts a premium on wins as they look to rebuild their lead in the division and put the club’s front office in position to buy more aggressively at the trade deadline this summer. While the best version of the Mets involves Alvarez in the lineup on a regular basis, though Luis Torrens has shown himself to be deserving of a regular role in the short-term with strong defensive grades and an 89 wRC+ that’s not too far off of Alvarez’s own figure this year.
In the short term, it seems Senger will be tasked with backing up Torrens. The 28-year-old made his MLB debut earlier this year and has hit .179/.207/.214 (18 wRC+) in 29 plate appearances across 13 games in the majors. Longer term, there’s little question that Alvarez will return to the majors with the club and rejoin Torrens as part of the club’s catching tandem. The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the Mets are satisfied with their catching tandem at this point and that they aren’t expected to enter trade season in the market for catching help.
Padres Activate Jackson Merrill From Concussion IL
Center fielder Jackson Merrill has been activated from the concussion-related IL, according to an announcement by the Padres. Outfielder Brandon Lockridge was optioned to the minors in a corresponding move.
Merrill initially went on the shelf last week after he was struck by a hard tag from Ketel Marte when trying to steal second base. It was his second trip to the injured list of the year after missing a month due a hamstring strain, but this one fortunately ended up only requiring a minimal absence. Merrill is back just one week after being shelved thanks to the nature of the concussion-related IL, which comes with a minimum stay of just seven days to encourage players and clubs to be more proactive with its usage.
When healthy, Merrill has more or less followed up his sensational rookie season with an exact replica. Across 44 games this year, he’s slashed .304/.349/.474 with a wRC+ of 131. He’s striking out a bit more than last year (22.0%) but is also walking more frequently (6.5%) to go with his five homers and ten doubles. Merrill’s return to action should provide a huge boost to a Padres team that has scuffled a bit while relying on Tyler Wade and Bryce Johnson to handle center field in his absence. While they managed to score more than 4.5 runs per game during Merrill’s time away from the club, they dropped three of four in a crucial series against the Dodgers and have lost four of their last six games overall.
That may seem like a fairly minor skid, but in a hotly contested NL playoff picture it was enough to put them half a game out of the final Wild Card spot and five games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. With trade season just around the corner, the next few weeks of play will be crucial for clubs on the bubble of playoff contention like San Diego. Adding Merrill back to the middle of the lineup alongside Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado should go a long way to bolster the offense enough to help it carry a beleaguered pitching staff, to say nothing of what Merrill’s strong glove in center field could do for the Padres’ run prevention after they allowed 30 runs in seven games last week.
Departing the roster to make room for Merrill is Lockridge. The 28-year-old made his big league debut with San Diego last season and has made it into 59 total games, though he’s slashed a lackluster .210/.248/.280 (50 wRC+) to this point in his MLB career. He’s primarily been used as a defensive replacement and pinch runner thanks to his impressive speed, and in that role he’s done quite well with a 10-for-11 record on the basepaths and +3 career Outs Above Average in the outfield. He’ll head back to Triple-A and serve as depth for the Padres’ bench moving forward.