March 25: Dunning has been outrighted to Triple-A, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
March 23: The Rangers have placed right-hander Dane Dunning on outright waivers, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Notably, Dunning has not been designated for assignment and remains a member of the Rangers organization who can pitch in games and workout with the club while the process runs its course. Rival clubs will have 48 hours to claim Dunning off waivers, taking on the entirety of his $2.66MM salary for the 2025 campaign in the process. Should the righty clear waivers, the Rangers would then have the opportunity to outright Dunning off the 40-man roster and to the minor leagues, though they would be under no obligation to do so.
Dunning, 30, was a first-round pick by the Nationals in 2016 but was traded to the White Sox alongside Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for outfielder Adam Eaton. Dunning became a consensus top-100 prospect ahead of the 2018 season but was sidelined by Tommy John surgery for the entirety of the 2019 season. He made his big league debut in 2020, making seven starts for the White Sox and pitching to a solid 3.97 ERA with a 3.99 FIP in those 34 innings of work. Dunning was then traded for the second time in his career, this time to the Rangers as part of the trade that sent Lance Lynn to Chicago.
The right-hander’s first two years in Texas painted him as a fairly run-of-the-mill back-end rotation arm. He posted a decent but unremarkable 4.48 ERA (93 ERA+) with a 4.28 FIP while soaking up 271 innings for the then-rebuilding Rangers, but he took a major step forward alongside the rest of the club during his age-28 season. That year, Dunning turned in solid, mid-rotation numbers as he made 35 appearances (26 starts) for Texas with a 3.70 ERA (116 ERA+) in 172 2/3 frames. While Dunning’s peripheral numbers, including a 4.27 FIP and a 19.4% strikeout rate, were nothing to write home about, the right-hander’s solid results seemed to leave him poised to continue acting as a solid back-of-the-rotation option for the Rangers for years to come.
Unfortunately, the wheels came off for Dunning in 2024. The right-hander struggled to the worst season of his career last year, splitting time between the rotation and bullpen as he posted a lackluster 5.31 ERA with a 5.17 FIP in 95 innings of work spread across 15 starts and 11 relief appearances. Dunning spent time in the minors as well last year, and his struggles continued at Triple-A Round Rock where he posted a a 5.28 ERA in 15 1/3 innings of work. In the majors, Dunning’s 21.6% strikeout rate was actually a couple of ticks better than it had been the year prior, but those gains were more than outweighed by a career-high 9.5% walk rate and a massive 10.9% barrel rate. That latter figure helped to contribute to a huge spike in home runs, as he surrendered 18 long balls in 95 frames after allowing just 20 in the prior year’s 172 2/3 innings of work.
That difficult season left Dunning in a somewhat precarious position entering the offseason, though he eventually agreed to a pre-tender deal with the Rangers worth $2.66MM back in November. Since then, however, the Rangers have pressed up against the lower limit of the luxury tax; RosterResource currently projects them for a luxury tax payroll of roughly $235MM this year, just $6MM under the first $241MM threshold. The club has made it abundantly clear this winter that ducking under the luxury tax is a top priority for them this winter and, given that, it’s easy to imagine that shedding Dunning’s salary could offer the club a bit of extra breathing room in a year where their pitching depth is being tested to the point of bringing in veteran lefty Patrick Corbin to help eat innings.
While Dunning himself could be relied upon to do the same in theory, he’s looked rough in Spring Training this year with an 8.18 ERA and four home runs allowed in just 11 innings of work. If the Rangers are uncertain about his ability to contribute in even a long relief role at this point, perhaps the best outcome for all sides would be Dunning getting claimed by a rebuilding club like the Marlins or White Sox where he can have more of a leash to figure out his issues. Another possibility could be joining the rotation mix of a club like the Yankees that has seen its rotation ravaged by injuries and is currently relying on options like Will Warren and Carlos Carrasco who arguably offer even less certainty than Dunning. Should Dunning clear waivers unclaimed, the Rangers will be able to decide whether to carry him on the Opening Day roster as initially expected or outright him off the 40-man roster and to the minor leagues to make room for another arm.
