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Marlins Claim Seth Martinez

By Nick Deeds | March 15, 2025 at 2:05pm CDT

The Marlins have claimed right-hander Seth Martinez off the Seattle waiver wire, as announced by the Mariners.  It wasn’t known that Martinez had been designated for assignment, and Martinez only joined the Mariners on another waiver claim from Miami less than two weeks ago. The Marlins went on to announce that left-hander Andrew Nardi was placed on the 60-day injured list with low back inflammation to make room for Martinez’s return to the 40-man roster.

Martinez, 30, was drafted by the Athletics in the 17th round of the 2016 draft but has spent his entire MLB career in an Astros uniform. The right-hander made his big league debut in 2021 for an ill-fated cup of coffee where he surrendered five runs across three innings of work, but provided solid middle relief work for the Astros since then. Martinez’s 2022 season was particularly impressive, as he dominated to the tune of a 2.09 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of work with a 24.5% strikeout rate against a 9.0% walk rate. That production wasn’t entirely supported by more advanced metrics, but his 3.32 FIP and 3.56 SIERA still suggested even his underlying performance was that of a quality relief arm.

Unfortunately, Martinez has not been able to maintain that level of success in the years since. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign was something of a disaster, as he struggled to a 5.23 ERA with a 4.42 FIP in 43 innings of work. While his ERA was inflated by a below-average strand rate and a more than 100-point jump in BABIP, his walk and home run rates both crept upwards as well to make the struggles more than simple bad luck. While the luck-based factors in Martinez’s 2023 season reversed in 2024, allowing him to post a solid 3.59 ERA in 52 2/3 frames for Houston last year, his skills took a major step backward as his strikeout rate plummeted to just 16.2% while he surrendered the most home runs of his career.

Those struggles led the Astros to designate Martinez for assignment back in November, and he’s been riding the waiver wire ever since. The right-hander was first claimed by the Diamondbacks and spent most of the offseason with Arizona, but was DFA’d once again to make room for veteran hurler Kendall Graveman on the Snakes’ 40-man. He was picked up by Miami shortly thereafter and since then has been shipped to Seattle, and now will land back in Miami as a potential bullpen arm for a Marlins club with plenty of interesting rotation arms but very little certainty in their relief corps.

Things are even more unsettled in the Miami bullpen due to Nardi’s placement on the shelf. The southpaw entered camp behind schedule but the club provided little information about his situation, instead only noting that he had “some stuff flare up in the offseason.” Evidently, Nardi’s back issues are serious enough that the club does not anticipate him being ready to pitch before the end of May, an unfortunate development regarding one of the club’s better relief arms. The lefty posted an ugly 5.07 ERA in 2024, but underlying metrics suggested his performance was much stronger than that. He struck out a whopping 33.3% of opponents faced, walked just 8.6%, and kept hard contact to a minimum en route to a 2.76 xERA, a 2.77 SIERA, and a 3.33 FIP.

All of those figures were much more in line with the production Nardi posted in 2023, when he pitched to a 2.67 ERA in 57 1/3 innings of work. Given his excellent peripherals last year and previous success, Nardi seemed to be a likely candidate for a late-inning role with the Marlins this year. This injury will put that on hold for at least the season’s first couple of months, and perhaps longer depending on Nardi’s timetable for a return to action.

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Miami Marlins Seattle Mariners Andrew Nardi Seth Martinez

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Poll: Should The Blue Jays Have Offered Vladimir Guerrero Jr. $500MM?

By Nick Deeds | March 14, 2025 at 6:54pm CDT

Active extension talks between the Blue Jays and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came to an apparent halt last month. The beginning of Spring Training, which Guerrero set as a deadline for negotiations, came and went without a deal. But that hasn’t stopped those negotiations from being a major topic of discussion around baseball in the weeks since.

Some of that publicity has been created by Guerrero himself; while extension negotiations are often played relatively close to the vest by both players and their clubs, Guerrero has been unusually candid about the negotiations throughout the process. His public comments have ranged from acknowledging back in December that the Jays had extended him a $340MM offer to his recent interview with ESPN where he suggested his asking price clocked in below $600MM over at least 14 years.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Guerrero set his asking price at a net present value of $500MM in negotiations with Toronto, whether the deal was a straight $500MM contract with no deferrals or a higher sticker price including deferred money that took the net present value back down to $500MM. The Jays reportedly did offer Guerrero about $500MM, but with deferrals that knocked the net present value down to the $400-450MM range, so the two sides were about $50-100MM apart in terms of NPV.

It’s an interesting development, not only for the window it provides into Guerrero’s thinking with his final season prior to free agency just around the corner, but also because of how rare it is for a player’s asking price to be reported on so specifically. With reasonable confidence in the knowledge that Guerrero would have accepted a 14-year, $500MM contract offer from the Jays, the decision by Toronto not to offer Guerrero that deal is an especially interesting point of discussion.

It’s easy to see why Guerrero would feel comfortable asking for that sort of contract. The slugger is coming off a superb season at the plate for the Blue Jays last year where he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, a strikeout rate of just 13.8%, and a wRC+ of 165. The performance was good for a sixth-place finish in the AL’s stacked MVP race last year, and in terms of overall production was more or less a perfect replica of his 2021 campaign where he posted a 166 wRC+ and finished second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. With two seasons of that caliber now under his belt, it’s impossible to argue against the fact that Guerrero is one of the league’s most explosive offensive talents.

That lofty ceiling with the bat is made all the more tantalizing by his youth; Guerrero will play next year at just 27 years old, one year older than Juan Soto is now. Soto stands as perhaps the best reason for Guerrero to feel emboldened to set his asking price at half a billion dollars. After all, the star outfielder’s combination of youth and offensive prowess allowed him to land a 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets back in December. It’s the richest contract in the history of professional sports and completely shattered all contractual precedents. Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s own $700MM deal with the Dodgers, which has an estimated net present value of $461MM, Soto’s contract includes no deferred money.

In that context, Guerrero setting his asking price at approximately two-thirds of Soto’s deal is understandable. After all, neither player contributes much in the field or on the basepaths, and when Guerrero is at his best he’s easily the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability. The Blue Jays themselves clearly saw Soto as a player worth splurging on, as they were a finalist for his services. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported back in December that the Jays’ offer to Soto clocked in under $700MM, but that shows that Toronto has the financial wherewithal to make a massive offer and a willingness to put pen to paper on such a deal for a player relatively similar to Guerrero. As mentioned earlier, they also made a substantial offer to Guerrero that went beyond $400MM in terms of NPV.

With that being said, the comparison isn’t without flaws. Guerrero is already more or less restricted to first base defensively, while Soto is capable of playing passable defense in the outfield corners and likely could theoretically move to first base in the future, as other corner outfielders like Bryce Harper have done in the past. More important than either his slightly more versatile defensive skill set or the fact that he hit free agency one year younger than Guerrero will, however, is the fact that Soto is simply in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s aforementioned peak seasons.

Setting Soto aside, there are valid reasons for concern when it comes to Guerrero. The slugger has shown a level of year-to-year volatility that could be difficult to stomach for a franchise cornerstone on what would be the second-largest contract in MLB history, and is just one year removed from a lackluster 2023 campaign where he posted a wRC+ of 118 with just 1.3 fWAR. One also doesn’t have to look very far to find first basemen who were comparable or even greater offensive talents than Guerrero at his age but saw their production take a nosedive in their early 30s. Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols stand out as the most obvious examples of the pitfalls that can come with offering even immense offensive talents franchise-altering contracts under the assumption they’ll remain productive into their mid-to-late 30s.

Another consideration that must be taken into account from Toronto’s perspective is the club’s own prospects of near-term success at the big league level. The Jays, as presently constructed, feature an aging roster with plenty of holes and question marks that figure to only grow in the coming seasons as veterans like Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios continue to age while pieces of the club’s core like Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk reach free agency. The club is coming off a fifth-place finish in the AL East last year and is projected by Fangraphs for a record of just 82-80, less than a full win ahead of the Rays for fourth place and behind the Yankees’ division leading projection of 86-76. If Toronto were to enter a rebuild in the near future after giving Guerrero a massive contract, they’d risk wasting the prime of their superstar’s career and returning to contention only when his best years are already behind him.

If you were in the Blue Jays’ shoes, would you have signed on the dotted line to keep Guerrero in the fold on a 14-year, $500MM contract? Have your say in the poll below:

Should the Blue Jays have given Guerrero $500MM over 14 years?
No 58.49% (5,685 votes)
Yes 41.51% (4,035 votes)
Total Votes: 9,720
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Toronto Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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The Opener: Tokyo Series, Spring Breakout, Cubs

By Nick Deeds | March 14, 2025 at 8:36am CDT

As the first regular season games of the year rapidly approach, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Tokyo Series exhibitions:

The Cubs and Dodgers are already in Japan for the Tokyo Series, where they’ll face off for a two-game set next week. While that’s still several days away, there’s still baseball to be played in the meantime. At 10pm CT tonight, the Cubs will play an exhibition game against Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hanshin Tigers. The Tigers have not yet announced who they’ll send to the mound, but the Cubs have announced that veteran reliever Julian Merryweather will kick things off for them.

The Dodgers will get in on the action tomorrow, facing the Yomiuri Giants in an overnight game that begins at 3am PT tomorrow morning. No starter has been announced for that game, though manager Dave Roberts indicated that the club plans for it to be a bullpen game. Seventeen hours later, the Dodgers will take the field again against Hanshin with Blake Snell set to start an 8pm PT game tomorrow evening. After that, it’s Chicago’s turn for an early-morning game as they’ll face Yomiuri at 5am CT Sunday morning with right-hander Jameson Taillon on the mound.

2. Spring Breakout continues:

After yesterday’s game where the Red Sox made headlines when their top three prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer) all slugged homers off of Rays pitchers, MLB’s Spring Breakout prospect showcase is set to continue. Six games are scheduled to take place today, with another four tomorrow and three more on Sunday. Top 100 prospects Nick Kurtz, Leo De Vries, Ethan Salas, Colt Emerson, Travis Bazzana, Jac Caglianone, JJ Wetherholt, Thomas White, Bubba Chandler, Aidan Miller, Jarlin Susana, and Cam Smith are among the many young, up-and-coming talents set to be part of today’s slate of games. You can find broadcast details and full rosters for all of this weekend’s showcases here, courtesy of MLB.com.

3. Cubs on the prowl for rotation depth?

Earlier this week, the Cubs were reportedly exploring the possibility of adding to their rotation. That news came as somewhat of a surprise given that Chicago has four healthy starters locked into its rotation mix and a bevy of possible fifth starter options including Colin Rea, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and the currently injured Javier Assad. Despite that depth, they’ve reportedly been discussing a big league deal with veteran right-hander Lance Lynn, who may be a particularly interesting fit for the club given that he’s drawn some interest as a reliever and expressed a willingness to pitch out of the bullpen this season as well.

The Cubs were once again connected to right-hander Dylan Cease this week, although the Padres righty seems very unlikely to move before Opening Day at this point. Will the Cubs add another name to their depth chart before their stateside opener against the Diamondbacks later this month?

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The Opener

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Poll: Will The Braves Add A Catcher?

By Nick Deeds | March 13, 2025 at 3:45pm CDT

At the outset of the offseason, the Braves made a surprising move to decline their club option on veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud despite prior indications being that they’d planned to exercise the option. Things turned out just fine for d’Arnaud, who signed a two-year deal with the Angels shortly thereafter, but the decision came back to bite Atlanta when starting catcher Sean Murphy suffered a cracked rib that will keep him out of action through at least the middle of April.

When Murphy missed time due to an oblique issue last year, d’Arnaud was there to step in as a capable regular option. This year, they’ll have no such ready-made answer locked and loaded on the roster. That’s not to say the club has no internal options; youngster Drake Baldwin is a well-regarded prospect who already seemed likely to make his MLB debut at some point this year, and Chadwick Tromp was already in line to make the roster as the club’s backup catcher. Baldwin has raked this spring to the tune of a .368/.520/.474 slash line, and perhaps that’s enough to convince Atlanta brass to give him the reins for the start of the season while Murphy recovers.

However, it’s hardly a reliable solution to the issue. Baldwin has yet to take a major league at-bat, and he struggled offensively at the Double-A level just last year before turning his season around upon his promotion to Triple-A. And if Baldwin proves unprepared to handle the big leagues, Tromp isn’t a viable starting option. The soon to be 30-year-old backstop has just 59 games and 156 plate appearances under his belt over parts of five seasons in the majors. In that time, he’s hit just .232/.237/.397 with a wRC+ of 66. While it’s not impossible to imagine more regular playing time in the majors allowing Tromp to perform better, 47 catchers produced more offense that Tromp’s career numbers across at least 100 plate appearances in the majors last year.

The Braves do have a pair of non-roster invitees in camp who could step in, but neither inspires confidence. Sandy Leon didn’t play in the majors at all last year, last had even 100 plate appearances in a season back in 2021, and is a career .208/.276/.311 hitter. Fellow NRI Curt Casali has a somewhat stronger track record, having played at least 40 games in the majors every year since 2018 (excluding the 60-game 2020 season where he appeared in 31 games for the Reds), but hit just .194/.293/.250 for the Giants in 125 trips to the plate last year.

Given all of the uncertainty facing Atlanta, an external addition can’t be ruled out. It’s been reported that the club made an offer to Yasmani Grandal even prior to Murphy’s injury. While Grandal turned that deal down, it signals the club already had reservations about its catching depth and it’s at least possible that the sides could circle back to each other with Opening Day fast approaching and additional playing time having opened up for Grandal.

Other options on the free agent market are few and far between. James McCann and Yan Gomes remain unsigned, but other options could emerge in the coming days as veterans on minor league deals with other teams begin to get the opportunity to opt out and return to free agency.

Jorge Alfaro, Omar Narvaez, and Tucker Barnhart are among the veterans in camp with other clubs who could return to free agency if they don’t make their current club’s Opening Day roster. It’s also at least possible that a club with an excess of catching options on the 40-man roster like the Twins could either make one of their backstops available on waivers or via trade, though trades of particular note are quite rare at this stage of the calendar. While none of the options likely to be available are game changers, they could offer a higher floor than any of Atlanta’s current options and allow the club to avoid rushing Baldwin to the majors.

How do you think the Braves will approach the situation? Will they take Murphy’s injury as an opportunity to give Baldwin regular playing time and stand pat with their internal options, or will they instead look to upgrade over a potential tandem of Baldwin and Tromp by bringing in a more reliable veteran to help handle the pitching staff? Have your say in the poll below:

Will Atlanta bring in a catcher while Murphy is injured?
No, they'll stick with who they have in-house. 64.46% (2,497 votes)
Yes, they'll add someone else to the mix. 35.54% (1,377 votes)
Total Votes: 3,874
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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Chadwick Tromp Curt Casali Drake Baldwin Sandy Leon Sean Murphy

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Cardinals Sign Phil Maton

By Nick Deeds | March 13, 2025 at 9:42am CDT

The Cardinals announced this morning that they’ve signed right-hander Phil Maton to a one-year deal. The Paragon Sports International client will reportedly make $2MM. Left-hander Bailey Horn was designated for assignment to make room for Maton on the club’s 40-man roster.

Maton, 32 later this month, was among the better relief arms still available on the free agent market at this late point in the calendar. Drafted in the 20th round by the Padres back in 2015, Maton will suit up with the Cardinals for his ninth MLB season and hope to continue a stretch of quality work that began with the Astros back in 2022. The first five seasons of Maton’s career saw him struggle despite solid peripherals, with a subpar 4.76 ERA in 215 1/3 innings of work across 209 appearances. He struck out 26.4% of opponents during that time while walking 9.2%. Those numbers were decent enough to keep Maton rostered with San Diego and Cleveland over the years, but he eventually wound up in Houston late in the 2021 season.

The righty’s middling results continued with the Astros through the end of 2021, but by the start of the 2022 season a switch seemed to have flipped. His 25.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over the past three seasons aren’t markedly different than what they were earlier in his career, but the veteran’s results have improved drastically as he’s posted a 3.50 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in 195 2/3 innings of work across 206 games.

After hitting free agency for the first time in his career prior to the 2024 season, Maton signed on with the Rays but struggled with a 4.58 ERA in 40 appearances for them last year. Fortunately for the right-hander, he was traded to the Mets for the stretch run and turned a corner, dominating to the tune of a 2.51 ERA across his final 31 appearances of the regular season.

Now, Maton is headed to St. Louis as the first and perhaps only major-league free agent signing the club will make this offseason. The Cardinals’ plans for the winter were largely hamstrung by an inability to find a trade partner for veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado, resulting in an extremely quiet offseason that was defined most by the departures of key veterans like Paul Goldschmidt in free agency.

Despite the Cardinals’ lack of activity this offseason, they’ve long been known to want a veteran relief arm who could fill the role Andrew Kittredge played last year and create a bridge between closer Ryan Helsley and the rest of a relatively young late-inning mix. They now appear to have found that player in Maton, who has just five career saves but has recorded 42 holds over the past three seasons.

Making room for Maton on the 40-man roster is Horn, a fifth-round pick by the White Sox in the 2020 draft. The 27-year-old lefty was traded to the Cubs in exchange for Ryan Tepera at the 2021 trade deadline and was eventually added to his new club’s 40-man roster, but did not make his big league debut in Chicago. He was traded back to the White Sox last February in order to clear a 40-man roster spot for the return of Cody Bellinger, but was then designated for assignment and traded to Boston in April. He made his big league debut for the Red Sox last June but struggled badly with a 6.50 ERA and 7.00 FIP in 18 innings of work.

During the offseason, Horn was designated for assignment by the Red Sox but picked up off waivers by the Tigers in November. He lasted on Detroit’s 40-man roster for just a month and was claimed off waivers by St. Louis in early January. He’ll now likely return to the waiver wire for the fourth time in the last 11 months. The Cardinals will have one week to either trade Horn or put him through waivers, where he can be claimed by any club willing to offer him a spot on their 40-man roster.

If Horn clears waivers, the Cardinals will get the opportunity to outright him to the minors as a non-roster depth option. That said, Horn is an optionable left-handed reliever who averages 95 mph with his heater and has a track record of missing bats in the upper minors. He could make him an attractive candidate for a waiver claim despite his lackluster results in the majors last year.

Katie Woo of The Athletic was first on the terms.

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Newsstand St. Louis Cardinals Transactions Bailey Horn Phil Maton

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The Opener: Spring Breakout, Rule 5, Rangers

By Nick Deeds | March 13, 2025 at 9:01am CDT

After an early morning free agent signing and a notable injury development, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Spring Breakout begins today:

MLB’s Spring Breakout prospect showcase begins today after debuting during Spring Training last year. 16 games are set to be played as part of the showcase, with all 30 clubs participating. Only two of those games are scheduled for today, however: a Grapefruit League match between the Red Sox and the Rays scheduled for 7:05pm ET, and a Cactus League game between the Dodgers and Cubs scheduled for 6:05pm PT.

The two AL clubs will square off in a star-studded game that figures to feature six top-100 prospects, including top-ten talents Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Carson Williams. Meanwhile, the NL clubs six top-100 talents of their own. Among the prospects suiting up for L.A. are left-hander Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zyhir Hope, both of whom were drafted by the Cubs back in 2023 but shipped to the Dodgers prior to the 2024 season as the return for first baseman Michael Busch.

2. Teams nearing decision time on Rule 5 draft picks:

Yesterday saw the Reds return their selection in this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft, infielder Cooper Bowman, back to the Athletics. The move made Bowman, 25, the first of this winter’s 15 Rule 5 selections to be sent back to his original team. It’s likely several more players will follow in Bowman’s footsteps over the coming weeks, as Rule 5 picks must be carried on their new club’s active roster for the entire season and cannot be optioned to the minor leagues. With clubs now starting to finalize their Opening Day rosters, it’s likely that at least some of the remaining 14 Rule 5 draftees will fail to break camp with their new clubs and return to their original organization.

One player who appears poised to avoid that fate, at least for the time being, is infielder Gage Workman. Workman was plucked from the Tigers by the Cubs in this offseason’s Rule 5 draft and was included on Chicago’s travel roster for the upcoming Tokyo Series, which suggests that the club plans to keep Workman in the fold at least for the time being. The White Sox, Marlins, Angels, Athletics, Nationals, Blue Jays, Rays, Twins, Braves, Padres, and Brewers all have Rule 5 draftees currently in camp, with Tampa and Atlanta each holding onto two draftees.

3. Rangers facing rotation questions:

The Rangers suffered a scare in the rotation earlier this week, as both right-hander Tyler Mahle and left-hander Cody Bradford were sent for MRI exams due to potential arm injuries. Both MRIs came back clean, but with the hurlers facing soreness in their forearm and elbow respectively and just two weeks left before the regular season begins, it’s fair to wonder if both hurlers will be back to pitching and built up enough to start the season in the club’s rotation. If either pitcher suffers a setback or the Rangers simply decide to take things slowly with even one of the two veterans, that would open the door for a youngster like Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker to break camp with the team in the rotation.

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The Opener

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Poll: Should The Cubs Extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?

By Nick Deeds | March 12, 2025 at 5:05pm CDT

The Cubs’ teardown of their last core that saw them part ways with Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Craig Kimbrel over the course of nine months. That slate of moves, to this point, has offered little in terms of major league production. There are some promising prospects from trades in that teardown, such as Owen Caissie (Darvish) and Kevin Alcantara (Rizzo) knocking on the door of the big leagues, but some of the pieces acquired in the trades of Darvish, Rizzo, Bryant, and Kimbrel have already departed the organization (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Alexander Canario).

So far, the primary exception is the trade that sent Baez (and right-hander Trevor Williams) to the Mets for center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. The former first-round pick’s premium defense and speed gave him a high floor, and he continued to elevate his stock en route to billing as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport.

In a league that’s seen an increasing number of young talents locked up long-term before reaching arbitration, Crow-Armstrong’s pedigree has long led Cubs fans to wonder if Chicago could follow in the footsteps of Arizona, Atlanta, and their brethren on the south side and lock up their young center fielder early in his career. It seems as though both the club’s front office and Crow-Armstrong himself could consider such an arrangement. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote last week that the front office “would be open” to bringing an offer to Crow-Armstrong. For his part, the youngster told Sharma he’s “always open to that conversation” as well.

Both the highs and the lows of Crow-Armstrong’s profile were on full display in 2024. He hit just .237/.286/.384 (87 wRC+) in 410 trips to the plate across 123 games… and his 2.7 fWAR in center field was still tied with Jacob Young of the Nationals for the eighth-highest figure of any player at the position last year thanks to his top-flight defensive and baserunning abilities. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths, including 22 straight steals without being caught. In the field, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field.

Impressive as his rookie season was in many ways, it’s undeniable that Crow-Armstrong’s bat left something to be desired. Among 31 center fielders to get at least 400 plate appearances last year, his aforementioned 87 wRC+ ranks just 20th and puts him well behind the production of similarly gifted center fielders like Daulton Varsho, Michael Harris II, and Brenton Doyle. If the Cubs believe Crow-Armstrong will remain a below-average hitter, it’d be difficult to justify extending him when he’s already under team control through his age-28 season.

There were some signs of positive growth throughout the year, however. From July onward, Crow-Armstrong slashed .260/.309/.442 with a wRC+ of 108. His strikeout (21.6%) and walk (5.6%) rates were both slightly improved in that time, but most of that offensive boost came from a power outburst. Crow-Armstrong entered July with just one home run but crushed nine more over his final 72 games. While Crow-Armstrong’s .085 ISO through the end of June would put him in line with Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez, his .185 ISO from July onward was more in line with hitters like Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The increased power is reflected in more advanced metrics, as well. Crow-Armstrong’s barrel rate (4.3%) and hard-hit rate (29.8%) were both lackluster early in the season but from July onward increased to 8.9% and 40.3%, respectively.

Perhaps Harris, who signed an eight-year, $72MM extension with the Braves back in 2022, could be the most useful comp for Crow-Armstrong given his strong work in center field and up-and-down offensive production throughout his career to this point. Harris was in the midst of a dominant rookie season where he slashed .297/.339/.514 (137 wRC+) at the time of his deal with Atlanta and was also a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now, but lacked his pedigree as a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect while also providing far less defensive value than Crow-Armstrong does.

Lawrence Butler just signed a seven-year, $65.5MM extension but did so with more than a year of service. Glove-first position players with some offensive ceiling who signed long-term deals in recent years include Ke’Bryan Hayes (eight years, $70MM) and Ezequiel Tovar (seven years, $63.5MM). Most of those deals were signed when the player had five remaining years of club control, however. Crow-Armstrong has six.

If you were in the Cubs’ shoes, would you try to lock up Crow-Armstrong long-term despite his lack of consistent offensive track record? Or would you wait to see how he develops in 2025 and beyond, even at the risk that he substantially boosts his earning power with a breakout campaign? Have your say in the poll below:

Should the Cubs extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?
No, wait to see how he develops and risk a breakout raising his asking price. 51.86% (2,634 votes)
Yes, offer him an extension despite questions about his bat. 48.14% (2,445 votes)
Total Votes: 5,079
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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Pete Crow-Armstrong

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The Opener: Scherzer, Giolito, Tigers

By Nick Deeds | March 12, 2025 at 8:56am CDT

As the start of the regular season gets closer, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Scherzer dealing with thumb soreness:

Veteran right-hander Max Scherzer is dealing with a bout of soreness in his right thumb, according to Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. Manager John Schneider called the Blue Jays’ decision to scratch Scherzer from his upcoming start tomorrow is the club “just being extra careful.” Scherzer missed time in 2024 with a litany of injuries, one of which was a nerve issue in his right arm that spanned his thumb to his triceps. If this latest thumb/nerve issue proves to be more serious, Toronto could call upon right-hander Yariel Rodriguez to step into the rotation from the bullpen or carry Jake Bloss, who is currently ticketed for Triple-A, on the big league roster to open the season.

2. Red Sox, Giolito await MRI results:

The Red Sox rotation has been tried by injuries this spring, with Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello both already poised to start the season on the injured list. It’s possible another starting pitching option will join them, as right-hander Lucas Giolito is scheduled for an MRI after leaving yesterday’s game due to hamstring tightness. If the issue is severe enough to keep Giolito off the Opening Day roster, the Red Sox have a number of viable depth options to help cover for the absence. Quinn Priester might already be lined up to take Bello’s spot already, but other options on the 40-man roster incclude Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, and Josh Winckowski.

3. How will the Tigers fill out their outfield?

The Tigers were expected to welcome outfielder Wenceel Perez back into the lineup today after he was sidelined by a back issue last week, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that Perez is absent from today’s Grapefruit League lineup and is not expected to play. With Matt Vierling and potentially Parker Meadows both slated to start the season on the injured list, Perez has stood out as a center field option for the Tigers to open the season. If he’s also ticketed for a late start to the 2025 campaign, however, the Tigers may need to get creative in filling out their outfield mix.

Riley Greene was ticketed for everyday duties in left field but could slide over to center if needed. Kerry Carpenter could spend more time in right field rather than serving as a regular DH. Zach McKinstry and Andy Ibanez both have at least some outfield experience, but it seems likely the club could benefit from another outfielder joining the roster like Justyn-Henry Malloy or perhaps even non-roster invitee Jahmai Jones. If Carpenter plays more in the outfield instead of filling the DH slot in the lineup, that could also create an avenue for Spencer Torkelson to get back into the lineup after losing the first base job to Colt Keith.

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The Opener

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Poll: The Yankees’ Priorities

By Nick Deeds | March 11, 2025 at 8:39pm CDT

It’s been a tough spring for the Yankees on the injury front. The club has faced a number of noteworthy injuries, with the latest blow being the loss of veteran ace Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2025 season, while rotation-mate Luis Gil is set to miss a couple of months after suffering a lat strain. The lineup has been impacted as well, with slugger Giancarlo Stanton poised to miss significant time due to elbow issues while likely starting third baseman DJ LeMahieu has been sidelined by a calf strain.

Each of those injuries have prompted varying levels of speculations that the club could look to bring in some help, but the Yankees are seemingly facing fairly strict budget limits. RosterResource projects them for a $285MM payroll. The Yanks have shown little interest in adding payroll, and their projected $305MM competitive balance tax number is already above the $301MM top tax threshold. It would be fairly difficult to make lineup and rotation additions with limited budget space and a limited supply available to them. General manager Brian Cashman downplayed the possibility of the Yankees making a notable addition, citing the current tax situation as an obstacle.

Perhaps the most obvious choice for an upgrade would be the starting rotation. The Yankees are already down at least one starter for the entire 2025 season, and while Marcus Stroman can step into the rotation as a #5 starter relatively seamlessly, the depth beyond him gets shakier. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 6.18 ERA over his past two seasons, while prospect Will Warren struggled to a 10.32 ERA in his big league debut last year with an ERA near 6.00 at Triple-A. A steadier depth arm like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson would make plenty of sense for a rotation that has multiple pitchers with notable injury histories.

The Yankees do have plenty of high-end talent in the rotation that could help to make up for the lack of depth. Max Fried is a legitimate No. 1 starter in his own right. Carlos Rodon is just two seasons removed from earning Cy Young votes. Clarke Schmidt posted a sterling 2.85 ERA in 16 starts last year. With the reigning AL Rookie of the Year set to join the rotation at some point this year, perhaps the Yankees’ needs are more acute in the lineup.

The idea of filling Stanton’s spot in the lineup is made more intriguing by the presence of a comparable veteran lingering in free agenct. J.D. Martinez remains on the market, and the two sluggers have produced nearly identical offensive value over the past five years: Stanton has slashed .231/.313/.473 with a 117 wRC+, while Martinez has hit .263/.330/.477 with a wRC+ of 118. Even with Martinez coming off a relative down season and a particularly tough second half with the Mets last year, it’s easy to see why having Martinez fill in for Stanton could be very appealing. The Yankees have had at least “some contact” with Martinez since Stanton was sidelined.

Then again, it’s fair to argue that Stanton is the easiest of the injured Yankees to replace in-house. Ben Rice has impressed during Spring Training and was already in the conversation for the backup catcher job. He could be tabbed as a potential DH option against right-handed hitters. Another solution would be giving regulars more rest by playing them at DH on occasion. If the club places Trent Grisham in center field for a day rather than Cody Bellinger, Stanton’s injury could let them give Bellinger a partial rest day at DH or have him back up any of Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, or even Paul Goldschmidt so they could get a rest day of their own.

Third base has also been a question throughout camp. LeMahieu seems like he’ll have a shorter absence than Stanton, but even coming off a down season, his injury thins out the infield options. A mix of LeMahieu, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera always looked fairly uninspiring. An MLBTR poll late last month suggested that a plurality of respondents believed the club’s primary third baseman would be someone not yet in the organization.

The third base market — and second base market, if Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays third instead — has largely been picked over, however. The Yankees were connected to infield options like Jose Iglesias and Jorge Polanco at points throughout the offseason and into Spring Training, but both veterans have since landed elsewhere. Nolan Arenado is known to be willing to waive his no-trade clause to join the Yankees, but it’s unlikely New York would be willing to take on his contract. Veteran Whit Merrifield remains available in free agency but isn’t a clear upgrade coming off a downturn in production at the plate. Perhaps upcoming opt-out opportunities for non-roster veterans and players made available on waivers due to roster crunches when Opening Day draws near will present a more viable solution.

How do MLBTR readers think the Yankees should address their injury-created holes? Will the club sign/acquire a starter to deepen its oft-injured rotation mix? Or could the Yankees instead turn to the lineup and either replace Stanton at DH or look for an upgrade to the infield? Have your say in the poll below:

Where Should The Yankees Prioritize Upgrading?
Starting Rotation 53.39% (2,843 votes)
Third Base/Second Base 39.10% (2,082 votes)
Designated Hitter 7.51% (400 votes)
Total Votes: 5,325
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Yankees DJ LeMahieu Gerrit Cole Giancarlo Stanton Luis Gil

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The Opener: Tokyo Series, Garver, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | March 11, 2025 at 8:35am CDT

As Spring Training continues, here are three things to watch for today:

1. Tokyo Series roster decisions:

The Cubs and Dodgers are hitting pause on Spring Training and boarding planes to Japan as they prepare for next week’s Tokyo Series. The exhibition games and other festivities associated with the coming event won’t get underway for a few more days, but the clubs will need to make decisions regarding their 31-man travel roster today. A few notable decisions remain, with Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writing that either outfield prospect Kevin Alcantara or infield prospect Matt Shaw will be heading to Japan with the Cubs, but not both players. Meanwhile, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic notes that the Dodgers have a decision to make on infielder Hyeseong Kim.

Shaw, 23, figures to be the club’s starting third baseman in 2025 but may not begin his time with the club immediately after being slowed in camp by an oblique injury. Alcantara, meanwhile, is the club’s primary backup to Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field after the Cubs parted ways with Cody Bellinger, Mike Tauchman, and Alexander Canario throughout the offseason. As for Kim, Ardaya notes that the 26-year-old could start the 2025 regular season in the minors as he works to implement changes to his swing the Dodgers have worked with him on throughout the spring.

2. Garver, Mariners await x-ray results:

Mariners catcher and DH Mitch Garver exited yesterday’s game against the Brewers after being hit by a pitch. The Mariners sent Garver for x-rays on his “hand and wrist area,” and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes that the club is still awaiting those results. Garver, 34, is entering the second year of a two-year, $24MM contract with Seattle and is likely to serve as the club’s primary backup to Cal Raleigh behind the plate. If Garver were to miss significant time with injury, Blake Hunt is on the Mariners’ 40-man roster and would likely be tapped to fill in as Raleigh’s backup.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

The first regular season games of the year are just a week away, though a handful of of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents remain unsigned and some clubs are scrambling to patch holes created by spring injuries. Whether you have a late spring trade proposal in the back of your mind or questions about your favorite club’s final roster decisions, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

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The Opener

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