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Joc Pederson Suffers Right Hand Fracture

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The Rangers were dealt a major injury blow today when DH Joc Pederson was hit by a pitch in this evening’s loss to the White Sox. Pederson initially stayed in the game but was later lifted for a pinch-hitter. Manager Bruce Bochy revealed to reporters (including Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News) that Pederson suffered a fracture in his right hand when he was struck by the pitch. Pederson told reporters, including McFarland, that he expects a recovery timeline of six weeks for the injury.

It’s a blow to a Rangers club that has already struggled to stay healthy this year. Pederson will now join Corey Seager and Evan Carter on the shelf from the club’s lineup, in addition to injuries suffered by reliever Chris Martin and starters Kumar Rocker, Jon Gray, and Cody Bradford. Those injuries have contributed to Texas’s struggles this year, as they’ve posted a lackluster 25-28 record that’s left them three games out of a Wild Card spot and five games out of the AL West. With Josh Smith covering for Seager at shortstop and Sam Haggerty holding down center field in place of Carter, the Rangers will likely be forced to get creative with replacing Pederson.

One option could be first baseman Blaine Crim, who failed to record a hit in a five-game cup of coffee earlier this year but sports a .301/.369/.558 slash line in Triple-A this year. Another could be outfielder Dustin Harris, who has a 104 wRC+ in 45 trips to the plate at the big league level and is the club’s only left-handed hitter already on the 40-man roster at Triple-A. Harris could be a particularly attractive option if the Rangers would like to continuing starting backup catcher Kyle Higashioka at DH against left-handed pitchers, a role which the club is already carrying third catcher Tucker Barnhart in order to accommodate on a more regular basis.

Turning back to Pederson, it must be acknowledged that for however much losing his offensive prowess from the lineup may sting on paper he hasn’t delivered much production in his first season with the organization. Signed to a two-year, $37MM guarantee over the winter, Pederson has hit a paltry .132/.266/.240 (51 wRC+) in 144 plate appearances to this point in the season. That’s hardly production a club will miss from their lineup, but it’s unfortunate timing nonetheless giving that Pederson had just begun to look more like his normal self at the plate: he’s hitting .220/.429/.444 with four extra-base hits and an eye-popping 26.5% walk rate over his last 16 games.

The Rangers can only hope that he’ll be able to pick back up right where he left off when he returns to action later this summer. A six week timetable would leave him poised to return in early July, shortly before the All-Star break. Rough as his start to the 2025 campaign was, it goes without saying that Pederson can be a dynamic addition to virtually any lineup when healthy; while he almost exclusively plays against right-handed pitching, the slugger slashed an excellent .262/.365/.485 with a wRC+ of 135 and 61 homers in 387 games over his last three seasons. That’s the 16th-best wRC+ among all hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances in that span, sandwiched between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez on the leaderboard. If Pederson can offer that sort of production to the Rangers in the second half, it should be easy for fans to forget his first-half struggles and injury woes so long as Texas hasn’t already fallen out of the playoff conversation before he returns.

Marlins Select Janson Junk

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The Marlins are selecting the contract of right-hander Janson Junk, according to a team announcement. Right-hander Lake Bachar was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Junk on the active roster, while a 40-man roster spot was opened up by transferring catcher Rob Brantly to the 60-day injured list.

Junk, 29, was a 22nd-round pick by the Yankees back in 2019 who made his big league debut with the Angels back in 2021. Once a fairly well-regarded pitching prospect, Junk pitched to a 4.74 ERA and a 5.22 FIP in 24 2/3 innings spread across seven appearances (six starts) in the majors during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Following the 2022 campaign, the Angels traded Junk to Milwaukee as part of the package for outfielder Hunter Renfroe. Junk didn’t get much of an opportunity in the majors with the Brewers either, however, pitching just 15 1/3 innings for the club with a 5.87 ERA and 5.22 FIP between the 2023 and ’24 seasons.

Those struggles in Milwaukee culminated in Junk eventually being bounced around the majors in the second half of last year. Junk was designated for assignment by the Brewers in late July and was claimed briefly by the Astros before being DFA’d once again and finding himself in Oakland. Junk appeared in just one game for the club but surrendered seven runs without recording an out and was eventually outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster in September of last year. He then reached minor league free agency during the offseason and signed a minors pact with the Marlins back in February.

Junk’s time with the Marlins organization has seen him pitch extremely well at Triple-A Jacksonville. In nine appearances (eight starts) for Miami’s affiliate, he’s pitched to a 2.48 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate in 45 1/3 innings of work. For a pitcher with a 4.03 career ERA across five seasons at the Triple-A level, it’s a noticeable step forward, and those impressive minor league numbers were clearly enough to get the attention of a Marlins club that’s always looking for extra arms who can pitch in flexible roles. He’ll join the Miami bullpen for the time being, where there should be opportunities for advancement into a late-inning role if he performs well given the club’s lackluster 5.09 bullpen ERA.

As for Bachar, the soon-to-be 30-year-old hurler is in his second season with the big league Marlins. He’s posted a 4.50 ERA in 36 innings of work as an up-and-down reliever for the club to this point, and while that league average (101 ERA+) production is hardly exciting, it’s the sort of effectiveness that should keep him in the conversation for appearances with the rebuilding Marlins going forward. Brantly, meanwhile, heads to the 60-day IL after sustaining a lat strain in April. That’ll keep him out of commission for at least another month, though a trio of Liam Hicks, Agustin Ramirez, and Nick Fortes seem perfectly capable of holding down the fort while Brantly is on the shelf.

Angels Promote Caden Dana

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The Angels announced this evening that they have designated right-hander Shaun Anderson for assignment. Anderson’s departure would make room for right-hander Caden Dana, who Sam Blum of The Athletic notes is poised to join the club’s bullpen.

Anderson, 30, was a third-round pick by the Red Sox all the way back in 2016 who made his big league debut with the Giants in 2019. He’s pitched parts of six seasons in the majors but has never had much success in doing so. Across 162 innings of work between the Giants, Twins, Orioles, Padres, Blue Jays, Rangers, Marlins, and Angels, the righty has a career 6.11 ERA in the big leagues with a 16.8% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk rate. He’s also had troubles with the long ball over the years, with 13.5% of his fly balls leaving the yard throughout his career.

It’s a rough profile, though a solid 2023 season in the KBO league where he pitched to a 3.76 ERA across 14 starts for the Kia Tigers offers at least some level of optimism about his ability to get outs at a higher professional level. He also has a 3.86 ERA in 349 1/3 career innings at Triple-A, suggesting he can at least be viable minor league depth for a pitching-needy club. The Angels will have one week to either work out a trade involving Anderson or attempt to pass him through waivers, at which point he would have the option to either accept an outright assignment or test free agency.

As for Dana, the 21-year-old has not yet done much at the big league level across parts of two seasons. He’s posted an 8.78 ERA in 13 1/3 big league innings so far, spread between three starts last year and one multi-inning relief outing earlier this season. Despite those lackluster performances in his brief time in the majors so far, Dana is a consensus top-100 prospect who dominated Double-A pitching last year with a 2.52 ERA across 23 starts (135 2/3 innings of work) with a 27.4% strikeout rate.

It was an extremely impressive showing, though Dana hasn’t been able to keep it up at Triple-A this year. In 38 innings of work across eight starts, he’s posted a 5.21 ERA despite a solid 24.6% strikeout rate. Much of that is surely due to the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, however, and perhaps getting Dana into a more pitching-friendly environment is why the Angels have decided to work to continue the right-hander’s development at the big league level. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a top pitching prospect broke into the majors first as a reliever, with Chris Sale’s early years with the White Sox standing out as perhaps the most noteworthy example.

The competitiveness of the big league club may also be a factor in the club’s aggressive promotion of Dana. After all, the club entered the weekend with an eight-game winning streak that had brought them back up to a .500 record, which puts them just 1.5 games out of playoff position in a weak AL Wild Card field. After a playoff drought that has lasted nearly all of Mike Trout’s career, it makes plenty of sense for the Angels to be aggressive in trying to capitalize on that opportunity. That aggressiveness could include pushing Dana to finish his development in the big league bullpen rather than the Triple-A rotation, where he can get reps against big leaguers in a less hostile environment to pitchers while avoiding the need to build up to a full starter’s workload or pitch a third time through the order.

Orioles Select Yaramil Hiraldo

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The Orioles have selected the contract of right-hander Yaramil Hiraldo, according to a team announcement. Southpaw Cionel Perez was designated for assignment to make room on the active and 40-man rosters.

Hiraldo, 29, signed with the Diamondbacks out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2018 but departed affiliated ball following a 2021 season where he struggled to a 4.13 ERA in 24 innings of work at the High-A level. He caught on with the independent Atlantic League, where he scuffled a bit in his first year outside of the minor leagues but bounced back to deliver an impressive 1.50 ERA in 18 innings of work. After once again impressing in 2024 (this time as a member of the Mexican League’s Caliente de Durango), he caught on with the Orioles this year on a minor league deal.

The right-hander has just 18 1/3 innings of work under his belt in the minors since returning to affiliated ball, but he’s dominated at every level the Orioles have put him through with a 2.43 ERA and 26.0% strikeout rate overall. Evidently, the Orioles feel he’s ready for the test of major league action, and the 29-year-old’s big league debut could come as soon as today’s game against the Red Sox. Now that he’s on the 40-man roster, Hiraldo will be an optionable bullpen piece available to Baltimore, a particularly valuable commodity given that closer Felix Bautista, top setup man Yennier Cano, and top lefty Keegan Akin are the only three pitchers besides Hiraldo will options remaining in the bullpen as things stand.

It’s been a tough year for Orioles pitching to say the least, given their MLB-worst team ERA of 5.77. The bullpen is less of a culprit in those struggles than the rotation, but their 5.67 ERA and 4.82 FIP still make them a bottom-four bullpen overall in baseball this year. Turning things around in the bullpen will primarily rely on pieces like Bautista and Cano getting right, but a dominant performance from Hiraldo in his first opportunities at the big leage level might be enough to convince the Orioles to keep him around over a struggling arm like Seranthony Dominguez, even though the latter is out of options. At the very least, a strong showing from Hiraldo in this first call-up to the majors should bode well for his ability to earn opportunities after a trade deadline where the Orioles look increasingly likely to be sellers in at least some capacity.

As for Perez, the 29-year-old has spent each of the past four seasons in Baltimore after previously pitching for the Astros and Reds over the years. Perez’s time in Baltimore has been generally successful, with a 3.72 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 212 appearances, though it must be noted that most of that success came in the 2022 and ’23 seasons. Last year was a down season for Perez, as he posted an ugly 4.53 ERA that clocked in 16% below average by ERA+ despite solid peripheral numbers. Those peripherals gave him a 3.30 FIP that suggested positive regression could be on the way, but Perez has not experienced that in 21 2/3 innings of work for the Orioles this year. Instead, he’s been torched to the tune of a 8.31 ERA with a 5.71 FIP that, while better, offers little optimism for above-average results going forward. Those deep struggles were evidently enough for Baltimore to pull the plug on the lefty, who they’ll now have one week to either work out a trade or attempt to pass through waivers.

Red Sox Designate Sean Newcomb For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced this afternoon that they’ve designated left-hander Sean Newcomb for assignment. The move makes room on the active roster for right-hander Luis Guerrero to be recalled from Triple-A.

Newcomb, 32 next month, is a former first-round pick who was selected 15th overall by the Angels back in 2014. He was swapped to Atlanta in the Andrelton Simmons trade prior to his MLB debut and spent parts of six seasons with the Braves from 2017 to 2022. During that time, he pitched to a league average 4.25 ERA in 144 appearances (57 starts) with a near-matching 4.27 FIP. That overall number doesn’t tell the full story, however, as Newcomb was actually an above-average pitcher (110 ERA+) over his first three years in the majors. Things took a turn for the worse after that, however, and by the end of the 2022 season he had been cut by the Braves and had a 7.45 ERA with a 5.57 FIP over his 73 2/3 innings of work in the majors from 2020 to 2022. He spent the following two seasons in Oakland with a roughly average 4.32 ERA despite shoddy peripherals that were more or less in line with his numbers during his previous struggles.

Newcomb’s future was filled with uncertainty entering Spring Training this winter. He had signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox over the winter, but the club had a loaded pitching staff and Newcomb hadn’t exactly shown much at the big league level in recent years. Fortunately for the soon to be 32-year-old, the Red Sox suffered a number of injuries throughout the spring. That, in conjunction with an impressive Spring Training, was enough to get Newcomb an opportunity to break camp not just with Boston, but as a member of the starting rotation while players like Lucas Giolito, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello began the season on the IL.

Newcomb’s five starts with Boston over the season’s first month were something of a mixed bag. The southpaw completed the fifth inning just once in those outings and surrendered a 4.43 ERA overall, but his peripherals looked quite strong as he struck out 25.7% of his opponents while walking 10.5%. He got bumped from the club’s rotation as other pitchers started to get healthy, but remained on the roster as a long relief option and excelled in that role as well, with a 3.06 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 17 2/3 innings of work across six relief outings.

In all, the lefty finishes his time with the Red Sox with a 3.83 ERA and 3.28 FIP across 40 innings of work. It’s a solid track record, and it would hardly be a surprise to see a pitching-needy club scoop the southpaw up either via trade or the waiver wire in the coming days given his previous pedigree and more recent success in the majors this year. The Red Sox will have one week to either trade Newcomb or attempt to pass him through waivers. Should he clear waivers, they could attempt to outright him to the minors as non-roster depth but he would have the opportunity to reject that assignment.

As for Guerrero, the right-hander has yet to give up an earned run in 14 innings of work at the major league level across the past two seasons. He’s rode the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors frequently for the Red Sox in recent years due to the fact that he has options remaining, but has yet to get an extended audition at the big league level. It’s possible his opportunity is now, although it must be noted that the Red Sox have a number of hurlers on the injured list whose activation will eventually require someone to be sent down to the minors or otherwise removed from the roster.

White Sox Release Oscar Colas

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The White Sox have released outfielder Oscar Colas, according to an announcement from the club’s Triple-A affiliate Charlotte Knights. Colas was previously outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster back in March, so the move has no impact on Chicago’s major league roster.

It’s an unfortunate end to Colas’s time in the organization. The 26-year-old was a fairly high-profile player in Cuba and Japan before he came over to affiliated ball by signing with Chicago for a $2.7MM bonus in early 2022. He crushed minor league pitching that year and put himself on the map as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport headed into the 2023 season. He broke camp with the team after a strong spring training, but ultimately struggled badly across 75 games with the White Sox that year. He hit just .216/.257/.314 in 263 trips to the plate, with an elevated 27.0% strikeout rate against a lackluster 4.6% walk rate.

Those numbers weren’t enough for the White Sox to continue riding with Colas even amid a disastrous 101-loss season, and he was shipped back to the minors. Once back in Triple-A, Colas regained his hitting prowess somewhat and slashed .272/.345/.465 with the Knights in 54 games down the stretch. As the White Sox dove headfirst into a rebuilding phase in 2024, many expected that Colas would receive another opportunity to come up and try to establish himself in the majors with the club. That never came to pass, however, as reps in right field were instead primarily split between Dominic Fletcher, Gavin Sheets, and Tommy Pham.

Relegated to Triple-A for almost the entirety of 2024, Colas hit .273/.368/.273 with a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 10.5% walk rate in the 13 games he did play in the majors last year but recorded no extra-base hits in the majors and saw his performance in the minors take a noticeable step back as he slashed just .246/.332/.400 across 400 trips to the plate. Colas did not factor into the club’s plans for the outfield this year either, as team brass added players like Mike Tauchman and Austin Slater to the mix rather than give Colas another opportunity. This year, he posted a brutal .163/.245/.255 slash line across the Double- and Triple-A levels in 29 games (110 plate appearances) before the White Sox decided it was time to pull the plug.

Now that the White Sox and Colas have parted ways, the outfielder is free to sign with any of the league’s 29 other teams. The outfielder won’t turn 27 until September and is not terribly far removed from sensational numbers in the upper minors, so it wouldn’t be a shock if an outfield needy club gave him a call to serve as a depth option or injury replacement. Another possible option would be to explore the possibility of playing overseas, building on his stint with NPB’s Fukuoka Softbank Hawks during the 2019 season. If Colas is unable to find an attractive stateside opportunity, he’s certainly young enough to find success overseas before attempting to make an MLB comeback as a handful of other players have done over the years.

Guardians Promote Nic Enright

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The Guardians are recalling right-hander Nic Enright to the roster today, as noted by MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins. He’ll take the place of right-hander Hunter Gaddis, who is going on the bereavement list. Should Enright make it into a game during this coming stint in the majors, it would be his big league debut.

Enright, 28, was drafted by Cleveland during the 20th round of the 2019 draft. Having mostly worked in relief during his college days, he was used out of the bullpen right away in his professional debut, when he allowed just one earned run in 18 dominant innings at the rookie league level. He struck out 36.1% of his opponents while walking 11.1%, and was clearly ready for a larger challenge. The cancelled minor league season in 2020 stalled Enright’s promotion somewhat, but he nonetheless reached Double-A by the end of the 2021 season. After scuffling to a 4.31 ERA in his first taste of action at the level, he enjoyed a fantastic season in the upper minors in 2022 with a 2.88 ERA in 65 2/3 innings of work between the Double- and Triple-A levels.

That’s the sort of performance that puts a player on the radar for a call-up to the majors. The Marlins clearly saw him as potentially ready for the show, as they plucked him from Cleveland in the Rule 5 draft that December. As Stebbins wrote about back in March, however, Enright was diagnosed with Hodgkins’ Lymphoma just a couple of weeks after being drafted by Miami. MLBTR readers are encourage to read Stebbins’s story about Enright’s battle with cancer in full.

The righty continued to pitch while undergoing treatment and made a handful of rehab appearances in the minors with the Marlins before eventually being returned to the Guardians organization in late May. Perhaps unsurprisingly given the fact that Enright was simultaneously changing organizations and battling cancer while trying to continue his development as a pitcher, 2023 was a bit of a down season for him as he struggled to a 5.09 ERA in 46 innings of work at the Triple-A level.

Despite those difficulties, Enright continued to persevere and turned things around last year, when he dominated to the tune of a 1.06 ERA and a 49.2% strikeout rate at Triple-A. That phenomenal performance came in just 17 innings of work, however, as the right-hander missed most of last year due to a strain in his throwing shoulder. Enright has been able to avoid further injury this year through nine appearances and has a 2.00 ERA at Triple-A, albeit with identical 18.9% strikeout and walk rates that are clear cause for concern. Regardless of that potential red flag, however, the 28-year-old is now on the precipice of making his big league debut despite the substantial off-the-field hurdles he’s faced in recent years.

If Enright does make his debut with the Guardians this evening, he’ll be tasked with facing a tough Tigers lineup in Detroit. As for Gaddis, his absence from the Cleveland bullpen will surely be felt given that he’s he’s pitched to a brilliant 1.41 ERA and 2.82 FIP with a 26.1% strikeout rate across 95 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2024 season. Fortunately, the Guardians will still have Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith to handle the late innings in Gaddis’s absence.

Poll: Can Jeremy Pena Keep This Up?

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It’s been a struggle for the Astros to even keep their heads above water this year thanks to the substantial losses they suffered over the offseason and a large number of lackluster in-season performances. Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are all playing elsewhere. Yordan Alvarez is hurt. Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, and new addition Christian Walker have all been disappointing so far. And the rotation has virtually no certainty behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. All of that makes staying just 2.5 games back in the AL West an impressive feat in its own right, even if the days of the dynasty that brought home two World Series championships appear to be over.

The development of shortstop Jeremy Pena is a major reason why they’re still in the hunt for the playoffs at all at this point. A third-rounder in the 2018 draft who debuted in 2022 with a brilliant season that earned him a Gold Glove award, Pena has always been a valuable player thanks to his excellent work at shortstop but has never been more than a league average performer at the plate. Entering 2025, the 27-year-old had slashed .261/.307/.399 with a wRC+ of exactly 100 during his MLB career.

As the Cubs demonstrated when they offered Dansby Swanson $177MM to become their starting shortstop, a league average bat with an excellent glove at shortstop is already incredibly valuable. Pena has seemingly taken his game to another level so far this year, however. He’s hitting an excellent .298/.362/.447 with six homers, six steals, and a wRC+ of 132 this season. Those numbers aren’t exactly appearing at the top of any leaderboards this early in the season, when relatively small sample sizes allow baseball’s most fearsome hitters to flirt with a .400 batting average or a 60-homer season virtually every year. But could Pena’s step forward be more sustainable than the typical hot start to a season?

There’s plenty of reason to believe that’s the case. One of the most positive changes in Pena’s profile is his substantially improved plate discipline. After striking out at a 20.4% clip and posting the third-lowest walk rate in the majors among hitters with at least 1500 plate appearances over the past three years, Pena is now one of just 19 qualified hitters with a strikeout rate under 14% this year (13.7%). He’s even walking a bit more frequently, with a 6.2% rate that grades out as merely below average rather than in the conversation for lowest in the league. Those improvements in plate discipline appear to be largely sustainable. Pena is swinging less often than ever (49.0%), and while that’s come with a decrease in swing rate inside the strike zone it’s also allowed him to cut down his swinging strike rate by nearly three points relative to his career norms.

While Pena’s increased passivity in the strike zone could be a cause for concern down the line, for now it seems as though swinging less often is doing wonders for his plate discipline. That willingness to take strikes inside the zone has been offset so far by increased power production. Pena’s .149 ISO to this point in the season doesn’t quite match his rookie campaign, when he launched 22 homers and 20 doubles, but it’s still ten points above his career norms and leaves room for him to flirt with a second 20-homer season after combining for just 25 long balls in 2023 and ’24. If this newfound power proves to be sustainable, that could help Pena avoid opposing pitchers challenging him in the zone more often to exploit the fact that he’s begun to swing less often.

The underlying metrics on Pena’s power output are mixed, however. He’s hitting the ball hard more often than ever before with a 40.1% hard-hit rate that would be the best of his career, but his 6.8% barrel rate is not substantially different from his career 6.2% mark, his average exit velocity is virtually unchanged, and his max exit velocity is actually lower than ever before. His bat speed has actually come down slightly as well. It’s not all bad news, however: in addition to his aforementioned hard-hit rate improvements, Pena is squaring the ball up more often than ever before (28.9%). In all, Pena’s xwOBA (.349) is more or less in line with his wOBA of .355, which suggests that he’s more or less earned his production to this point.

How do MLBTR readers feel about Pena’s strong start to the season? Is it a sustainable step forward for the young hitter, or will he revert back to average with time? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Acuña, A’s, NLCS Rematch

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world as we head into another weekend:

1. Acuña to return:

The wait is finally over for fans in Atlanta: the Braves will be back to (mostly) full strength today when they activate outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. from the injured list. The 27-year-old superstar and 2023 NL MVP hasn’t taken the field in nearly a fully calendar year after tearing his ACL last May, and the Braves have struggled somewhat in his absence. The club made the playoffs by virtue of a tiebreaker last year but went on to get swept out of the NL Wild Card series, and after an 0-7 start to the 2025 season they’ve only recently clawed their way back to a .500 record. A career .289/.379/.525 hitter, Acuña should certainly help with the offensive woes in Atlanta amid lackluster seasons from Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II as well as a PED suspension for offseason signee Jurickson Profar.

2. Roster overhaul in West Sacramento?

The A’s are in a tough spot. The club worked hard to try and revamp their roster over the offseason for their first year away from Oakland, and while the early part of the season saw them flirt with contention, they’ve now crashed back down to Earth with nine consecutive losses. It seems as though that losing streak might be a cause for a shakeup to the roster; outfielder Denzel Clarke is reportedly on his way, and while that move by itself wouldn’t constitute a major change to the roster ESPN’s Jeff Passan teased the possibility of more moves to come as the A’s try to get things back on track. Will the roster look substantially different by the time they face the Astros next week — or even the Phillies this evening?

3. NLCS rematch in Queens:

The reigning World Series champions are coming to Queens, and for the Dodgers and Mets that means a rematch of last year’s NLCS. The Dodgers, of course, ultimately prevailed in six games last time around, but both teams made substantial upgrades in the offseason. The series starts tonight at 7:10pm local time in New York with longtime Dodger Clayton Kershaw on the mound for his second appearance of the season. The Mets will counter with Griffin Canning, who has a 2.47 ERA through nine starts. Saturday will see Tony Gonsolin (4.05 ERA) make his fifth start of the year against southpaw David Peterson (2.86 ERA), while Sunday’s game will feature Dodgers youngster Landon Knack (6.14 ERA) against Mets ace Kodai Senga (1.43 ERA).

Poll: Did The White Sox Find A Gem In The Rule 5?

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There’s not been much for fans on the South Side of Chicago to get excited about of late. The club’s lengthy rebuild in the 2010s assembled a core that included well-regarded pieces like Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Luis Robert Jr. but did not translate to much success on the field; the group ultimately made it to the playoffs in 2020 and ’21 but lost in the first round both years before regressing to an 81-81 record in 2022 and kicking off the latest rebuild.

Since then, White Sox fans have watched that core get dismantled, whether via trades or declined club options, and breakout ace Garrett Crochet followed them out the door over the offseason. Crochet’s excellent pitching performances were the one highlight of the White Sox season this side of the Campfire Milkshake, so that left fans with little to look forward to in 2025… or so we thought. In reality, the White Sox seem to have replaced their dominant ace with another potential front-of-the-rotation arm who came from the most unlikely of places: the Rule 5 draft.

Righty Shane Smith was plucked from the Brewers’ organization and made Chicago’s Opening Day rotation out of Spring Training. It was difficult to know what to expect from Smith, given that an organization as well-regarded for its pitching development as Milwaukee was comfortable leaving the righty unprotected this past winter. That’s quickly proving to have been a mistake. Through his first ten starts of the season, Smith has posted a sterling 2.36 ERA that stands as the eleventh-best figure among qualified starters this year, just ahead of Paul Skenes.

ERA is an imperfect estimator of talent, of course, and Smith’s personal figure is deflated by the fact that a six-run, five-inning outing against the Cubs saw five of those runs scored as unearned. Even setting ERA aside, however, his season has been an impressive one so far: a 3.32 FIP (26th) and 3.57 xERA (t-29th) lend credence to the idea of Smith as a potential front-end arm, even if he isn’t quite in the Cy Young conversation based on those more advanced metrics. Have the White Sox truly found a diamond in the rough, or is Smith’s hot start to his career just a flash in the pan?

Overall, Smith’s profile is a solid one, but there are signs that it’s closer to that of a league average starter than anything else. His 22.0% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate are both middle of the pack, and a 45.3% ground ball rate is above-average but not exactly elite. His .259 BABIP and 5.9% home run to fly ball ratio are both top-of-the-scale, but neither of those figures are particularly skill-interactive or sustainable, particularly for a hurler who rarely generates soft contact. If anything, those figures are potential red flags that indicate risk of future regression. Smith’s 3.96 SIERA and 97 xFIP- paint him as a roughly average MLB starter as well, offering all the more reason to think he might regress.

There are reasons for optimism as well, however. Smith generates swinging strikes at a well above average clip, which could be a sign for strikeout potential beyond the average rates that he’s shown to this point. An uptick in strikeouts would raise the floor on his whole profile in a way that could allow him to keep producing at this level. Even without that, however, it’s fair to point out that there have certainly been pitchers who have found consistent MLB success over the years despite mediocre underlying data. Smith’s metrics are better than, as one example, those of Javier Assad on the other side of town. Assad has a career 3.40 ERA across nearly 300 innings in the majors despite lackluster metrics, and that’s a figure any team would happily take from a Rule 5 pick.

How do MLBTR readers think Smith will pan out going forward? Will he be able to find another gear and keep producing like a front-half of the rotation arm, will he settle in as more of a reliable back-end starter, or will this hot start prove to be a total mirage? Have your say in the poll below:

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