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The Opener: Kirby, Perez, Heim

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Kirby to make season debut:

The Mariners have been without star right-hander George Kirby all season due to shoulder inflammation. While a strong start from the club’s offense has been enough to propel them to the AL West lead with a 28-20 record, the return for an All-Star who sports a career 3.43 ERA and 3.22 FIP only further brightens the outlook. Kirby has been a workhorse by the standards of today’s game, throwing more than 190 innings in each of the last two seasons. That streak will end this year after the first significant absence of his young career, but the 27-year-old still figures to offer the Mariners stability at the top of their rotation. His first task will be facing the Astros and right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. tonight. McCullers recently came off the IL himself but has struggled to a 7.88 ERA through three starts since his return.

2. Perez nearing milestone:

Veteran Royals catcher Salvador Perez has had a rough start to the 2025 season despite some positive signs in the underlying metrics. For however lackluster his season-long numbers may appear so far, the 35-year-old was brilliant during yesterday’s game in San Francisco when he collected three hits, including a double and a homer. That double is of particular note because it was the 299th of his career. His next two-bagger will make him just the sixth player in Royals history to reach 300 with the club, joining George Brett, Hal McRae, Frank White, Amos Otis, and his own former teammate Alex Gordon. Perez is also within spitting distance of 300 career home runs, a club he’d be the second Royal in history to join behind Brett. At 276 dingers for his career, it’ll be a bit longer before he reaches that milestone, however.

3. Heim dealing with hand injury:

The Rangers had an injury scare last night when catcher Jonah Heim exited yesterday’s game due to a compressed nerve in his right hand. As noted by Bill Ladson of MLB.com, Heim struggled with throwing the ball back to righty Jacob deGrom as the veteran warmed up on the mound, prompting the club to swap him out with Tucker Barnhart for the day. Ladson adds that according to Bochy, x-rays on Heim’s hand came back negative. That led to optimism from the veteran manager that Heim could be back in the lineup soon, which would be a major relief for the Rangers given the 29-year-old’s strong .268/.314/.433 slash (111 wRC+) from the catcher position this year. The Rangers can afford to play it somewhat safe with Heim in the coming days, given that both Barnhart and Kyle Higashioka are currently on the roster as catching options.

The Opener: Crews, Hassell, Orioles, Angels, A’s

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Crews to undergo testing:

The Nationals are promoting former top prospect Robert Hassell III for his big league debut today (weather permitting) after rookie Dylan Crews exited yesterday’s game with discomfort in his left side. Crews is expected to undergo testing today that will give the Nationals a better idea of his status. Hassell’s promotion seems to indicate that the Nationals believe a stint on the injured list is likely for Crews, who has struggled to a .196/.266/.354 slash line in 45 games. The former No. 2 overall pick has been turning things around, however, slashing .234/.315/.459 over his past 124 plate appearances and ripping three homers in his past nine games. If today’s imaging shows that Crews does not need an IL stint, perhaps the Nationals would instead facilitate Hassell’s promotion by placing center fielder Jacob Young, who collided with the outfield wall over the weekend and has been day-to-day ever since, on the injured list instead.

Hassell, a former No. 8 overall pick, will be the fourth player from the Nationals’ Juan Soto haul to make his big league debut, joining Washington’s star trio of James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams. Hassell’s stock isn’t as high as it once was, but he’s hitting .288/.337/.405 (99 wRC+) with four homers and a 9-for-10 showing in stolen base attempts through 175 plate appearances with Rochester this season. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at how Washington’s Soto haul seems to look better by the day, and Hassell’s promotion could further add to that.

2. Orioles look to avoid MLB-worst losing streak:

The Orioles are at risk of losing their ninth consecutive game today, which would be the longest losing streak in the majors this year. Last night’s 5-2 loss to Milwaukee gave them an eight-game losing streak that places them in a tie with the Rockies for the longest string of losses — a benchmark that Colorado has incredibly reached on three separate occasions in 2025. The Orioles will try to stave off that ninth loss tonight against the Brewers with Tomoyuki Sugano (3.08 ERA in nine starts) on the mound against Milwaukee rookie Chad Patrick (3.35 ERA in ten appearances).

3. Angels, A’s face off amid streaks:

While the Orioles try to end their current streak of losses at eight, the A’s will try to avoid losing their eighth game in a row tonight against the Angels. It’s the third game in a four-game set, and after Anaheim took each of the first two games, they’ve put together a little streak of their own in the opposite direction, climbing to five consecutive wins. With veterans Tyler Anderson (3.04 ERA in nine starts) and Luis Severino (4.22 ERA in ten starts) on the mound in West Sacramento tonight, will both streaks continue, or will the A’s put a stop to their division rival’s recent surge and halt their own freefall in the process?

Poll: Should The Royals Be Worried About Salvador Perez?

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Veteran catcher Salvador Perez is the face of the Royals franchise, the last man standing from the club’s 2015 World Series team, and a nine-time All-Star with five Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers to his name. He’s one of the most important players in the organization’s history, and in that sense the 35-year-old’s legacy is already secure. That impenetrable legacy does little to help the Royals’ playoff odds in 2025, however, and in that regard Perez’s performance this year has been lacking. He’s hit just .218/.254/.324 across 46 games and 190 plate appearances so far in 2025. That leaves him with a wRC+ of just 57 and negative WAR according to both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, and that’s in spite of a brief hot streak where he collected 14 hits (including eight doubles) in ten games from April 24 to May 6.

That sort of production just won’t cut it for a Royals club that has playoff aspirations. Their 27-22 record entering play today is enough to keep them in the thick of the Wild Card race, but the recent losses of both Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans from the front of their rotation will put more pressure than ever on the offense to score runs. Perez is typically a key part of that offense, and with other key cogs in the lineup like Vinnie Pasquantino and Jonathan India also struggling to produce early in the year, Perez remains as important as ever. Can he turn things around, or do the Royals have a tough decision to make this summer about a franchise legend’s playing time in a pennant race?

A look at the underlying metrics provides plenty of reason for optimism. The most glaring factor in Perez’s downturn in performance is his anemic .106 ISO, which would put him on par with the 2024 performances of light-hitting, contact-oriented bats like Nico Hoerner and Nolan Schanuel. That’s a worrisome comparison to make considering Perez averaged 30 homers per season from 2021 to 2024, but the good news is that all signs point to this power outage coming to an end sooner rather than later. Despite hitting just two home runs so far this year, Perez’s 13.0% barrel rate is actually his best since he smacked 48 bombs in 2021 and his 45.7% hard-hit rate is better than it was in either of the past two seasons. In fact, Perez’s barrel and hard-hit rates are almost identical to those of Pete Alonso this year.

That could make it easy to write off Perez’s lackluster performance so far this season as little more than a fluke that should correct itself in due time, and the Royals are surely hoping that’s the case. With that being said, there are at least some potential red flags in the veteran’s performance that are worth keeping an eye on. While Perez has never been a particularly well-disciplined hitter, his 22.6% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate are both trending in the wrong direction relative to his All-Star 2024 season. He’s also hitting slightly more balls on the ground with fewer line drives relative to last year. All four of those figures are well within the bounds of Perez’s career norms, however.

Perhaps the biggest reason for concern regarding Perez is his age. As a 35-year-old catcher, it would hardly be a surprise if he wasn’t as physically capable of maintaining peak performance across 162 games as he was in his younger days. Regular reps at first base and DH should help that somewhat, but it’s still worth noting that Perez has seen his offense take a turn for the worse when the calendar flips to July in each of the past two seasons. If that trend of Perez slowing down as the year progresses continues in 2025, he may be running out of time to turn his overall season numbers around despite the solid underlying metrics to this point in the year.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of Perez’s 2025 campaign will play out? Will he bounce back to around where he’s been in recent years, as the underlying numbers suggest? Or has he struggled too deeply for too long in the first half to make up for a potential slowdown after the All-Star break? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Buehler, Twins, Guardians, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. Buehler back from injured list:

The Red Sox have had plenty of pitching struggles this year between health and ineffectiveness, with ace southpaw Garrett Crochet standing out as the only consistent bright spot. Fortunately, they’re getting some reinforcements from the injured list. Right-hander Walker Buehler is expected to be active and on the mound for tonight’s game against the Mets. The two-time All-Star is in the midst of his first full season since 2021, and while he’s been merely average through six starts this year with a 4.28 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.29 FIP, that should still provide a notable boost to Boston’s pitching staff. In this evening’s game, he’ll face off against Mets righty Clay Holmes. Holmes has been generally excellent in 2025, with a 3.14 ERA through nine starts, though he has looked a bit less dominant so far in May (4.00 ERA, 4.60 FIP) than he was in April (2.64 ERA, 2.22 FIP).

2. Twins, Guardians continue suspended game:

Yesterday’s game between Minnesota and Cleveland was suspended after three innings due to inclement weather, with the Twins leading by a score of 2-1. The suspended game is expected to continue today at 5:10pm local time, and today’s regularly scheduled game will begin 30 minutes after its conclusion. That, of course, is pending any further interruptions from mother nature; today’s forecast suggests rain throughout the afternoon and evening in Minneapolis. According to MLB.com, all ticketholders for today’s regularly scheduled game are also welcome to attend the continuation of yesterday’s suspended game while those with ticketholders can click this link for details on exchange and refund policies.

3. MLBTR chat today:

All of the league’s teams have now completed around 30% of their schedule, but there’s still plenty of baseball left to go and more than two months remaining until the trade deadline on July 31. Whether you’re looking ahead to the deadline or still trying to sort between the contenders and pretenders, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Poll: How Effective Has The Prospect Promotion Incentive Been?

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The Prospect Promotion Incentive was instituted as part of the latest collective bargaining agreement prior to the 2022 season. As the name implies, it’s designed to incentivize teams to more quickly promote their top prospects to the majors and avoid service time manipulation to gain a seventh year of team control over a given player. If an eligible player wins the Rookie of the Year award or is a finalist for either the MVP or Cy Young award before he reaches arbitration eligibility, then his team will be awarded a pick immediately after the first round of the following year’s draft.

Over the first three years of the incentive’s existence, four players have earned a PPI pick for their team: Julio Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, and Corbin Carroll all did so by winning their league’s Rookie of the Year award, while Bobby Witt Jr. did so last year by finishing second in AL MVP voting. That’s more than one player per year bringing in an extra pick for their team, and that collection of some of the league’s brightest young stars would have otherwise been prime candidates for service time manipulation; all were viewed as among the game’s best prospects, and all except Carroll had not yet signed an extension with their club although both Witt and Rodriguez would do so later on. The Mariners, in particular, had a history of manipulating service time with their best prospects including a controversy surrounding their handling of then-top prospect Jarred Kelenic.

In the cases of Rodriguez, Henderson, and Witt, the club in question evidently felt that the combination of a potential PPI pick and a full season of their top prospect in the majors was the better choice to pursue than the possibility of a seventh year of team control. The fact that players who finish in the top-two of Rookie of the Year voting are awarded a full year of service time even if they have not yet reached 172 days naturally surely factors into that calculation as well; the Pirates held star right-hander Paul Skenes back from their Opening Day roster and ended up with the worst of both worlds when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year. Not only did they not receive a PPI pick for Skenes’s win after he wasn’t included on their roster to begin the year, but his win cost them that extra year of team control gained by holding him back in until May anyway. 2015 NL Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant surely would’ve appreciated the opportunity to get that same bump in service time and move his free agency up to the 2020-21 offseason.

Not all instances of the PPI’s influence are quite this cut-and-dry, however. One recent trend regarding PPI-eligible prospects has been for clubs to put potential Rookie of the Year candidates on their Opening Day roster (or promote them early enough in the season so that they retain PPI eligibility) before giving them a short run in the majors and optioning them to the minor leagues if they don’t excel. The Cubs recently did exactly this with top infield prospect Matt Shaw, who was promoted back today after making the Opening Day roster, struggling in 18 games, and then spending a month at Triple-A. The Orioles have used this tactic when handling the promotions of Grayson Rodriguez and Jackson Holliday, as well.

Exactly how much those demotions had to do with service time and how much they had to do with performance can be debated, but it’s a method that allows a team to essentially hedge their bets by only extracting that extra year of team control once the PPI-eligible player has struggled enough in the majors to make a top-two finish in Rookie of the Year voting extremely unlikely. Aside from those cases, there are also some teams that seem completely undeterred from holding down their top prospects by the PPI. The aforementioned Pirates fall into this group even after the debacle with Skenes last year, as they’ve shown no inclination towards promoting top pitching prospect Bubba Chandler despite his dominance at Triple-A and the club’s struggles at the big league level.

How do MLBTR readers view the incentive? Has it been a success because it’s allowed players like Skenes to earn a full year of service while getting players like Henderson the opportunity to break camp with the big league team on Opening Day of their rookie seasons? Or is the fact that players like Chandler are still being held down in the minors while players like Shaw and Holliday have been sent back to Triple-A once they’re no longer good bets to bring in a PPI evidence enough that the system is ineffective? Have your say in the poll below:

Braves Activate Spencer Strider

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May 19: The Braves announced this morning that Strider has been reinstated. Dodd was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett in a corresponding move.

May 18: The Braves optioned right-hander Bryce Elder to the minor leagues to call up southpaw Dylan Dodd earlier this weekend. The 2023 All-Star had a middling 4.50 ERA and 4.92 FIP in eight starts in the majors to this point in the season, so the club’s decision to send Elder to Triple-A is hardly a shock. That said, it’s still notable given that it opens up a spot in the rotation behind Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Grant Holmes.

At first glance, Dodd seems like the obvious candidate to take that role considering that the lefty has started seven of his eight MLB appearances so far in his career. Dodd has moved to the bullpen full time at Triple-A this year, however, and Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported today that right-hander Spencer Strider is actually the one who will take Elder’s spot in the rotation after he’s activated from the injured list on May 20.

The 26-year-old missed nearly all of last season after undergoing internal brace surgery on his UCL early last year. The righty made it back to the big league mound just over a month ago and struck out five across five innings of one-run ball, but suffered a hamstring injury shortly thereafter while playing catch in preparation for his second start of the season. Rather than take any chances with Strider pitching on a balky hamstring, Atlanta placed him back on the injured list, where he’s remained for the past month.

Now, it appears Strider is finally poised to take his second start of the 2025 season. It was reported last week that Strider was scheduled to throw a 70-to-75 pitch simulated game in preparation for his return to action, at which point the club would decide whether to send him on a short rehab assignment or activate him directly off of the injured list. It seems they’ve opted to go with the latter option in order to get Strider back to the majors as quickly as possible. A disastrous 0-7 start to the season has become little more than a bad memory, as the 24-23 Braves are just four games back of a playoff spot and five games back of the Mets in the NL East.

That’s hardly an insurmountable deficit, particularly for a club that’s hoping to get a healthy, vintage performance from Strider the rest of the way. The hard-throwing righty was among the best pitchers in baseball in his first two MLB seasons as he posted a 3.36 ERA with a 2.43 FIP and a 37.4% strikeout rate from 2022 to 2023. If he can offer anything close to that sort of a production for a rotation that already features the reigning NL Triple Crown winner in Sale and a pair of electric young arms in Schwellenbach and Smith-Shawver, Atlanta should be a force to be reckoned with moving forward this year before even considering the fact that Ronald Acuna Jr.’s own return may be just around the corner or that All-Stars Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II have yet to produce offensively this year.

The Opener: Martin, Royals, Giants, Phillies

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Martin exits due to shoulder issue:

Rangers right-hander Chris Martin departed yesterday’s game against the Astros after throwing just one pitch. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News) that Martin’s exit was due to “shoulder discomfort.” Bochy indicated that Martin’s shoulder will be examined before the club makes any decisions about next steps, but it would hardly be a shock to see the nearly 39-year-old hurler be placed on the shelf. That would be a tough outcome for the Rangers, as Martin has been fantastic in a late-inning role this year with a 1.83 ERA and 1.87 FIP across 22 appearances.

2. Series Preview: Royals @ Giants

The Royals are headed to San Francisco for a three-game set that pits the current holder of the final Wild Card spot in each league against one another. The Royals have a one-game lead over the Rangers and Astros for the last spot in the AL, while the Giants have a two-game lead on the Cardinals over in the NL.

Southpaw Kris Bubic has a sterling 1.66 ERA through nine starts, and at 6:45pm local time in San Francisco he’ll be taking on fellow lefty Robbie Ray (3.04 ERA) in an attempt hand the Giants their first loss of the season with the veteran Ray on the bump. Tuesday, Royals righty Michael Lorenzen (3.76 ERA in nine starts) will square off against Hayden Birdsong (2.31 ERA in 11 relief outings) as he moves from the bullpen to the rotation. The series will close out on Wednesday with San Francisco ace Logan Webb (2.42 ERA in ten starts) taking on a to-be-announced Royals starter. Kansas City placed both Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo on the injured list over the weekend.

3. How will the Phillies handle the loss of Alvarado?

The Phillies were dealt a nasty surprise yesterday when closer Jose Alvarado was suspended for 80-games after testing positive for exogenous testosterone. The lefty has been crucial in the bullpen for Philadelphia, delivering a 2.70 ERA and 1.84 FIP in 20 appearances while picking up seven saves. Fellow lefty Matt Strahm (2.89 ERA, 1.91 FIP in 21 outings) has been nearly as effective, but the Phillies’ relief corps owns a lackluster 4.57 ERA as a collective unit. That’s a bottom-ten figure in baseball, thanks largely to early struggles from Jordan Romano (7.27 ERA) and Carlos Hernandez (6.35 ERA). Romano, however, has rattled off eight consecutive scoreless frames with an 11-to-1 K/BB ratio. Hernandez hasn’t been as sharp but still has a more palatable 4.50 mark with improved strikeout and walk rates over his past 10 frames.

Getting Romano back to the pre-injury form he showed in Toronto would be a boon, especially since trade season is unlikely to begin in earnest for another month at least. In the meantime, could the Phillies look to make a more minor addition, as their division rivals in New York did when they added southpaw Jose Castillo in a trade the Diamondbacks last week?

Mets Release Billy McKinney

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The Mets have released outfielder Billy McKinney from his minor league contract with the club, as noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. McKinney signed a minor league deal with the club back in March.

Selected 24th overall by Oakland back in 2013, McKinney was once a consensus top-100 prospect who was included in two major trades before making his big league debut: first he was part of the package (headlined by Addison Russell) that the Cubs received in return for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the A’s, and then just two years later he was part of the package (headlined by Gleyber Torres) that Chicago sent to the Bronx in exchange for Aroldis Chapman. After that whirlwind of trades, McKinney finally settled in with the Yankees long enough to make his big league debut during the 2018 season.

Unfortunately, by that point McKinney’s top prospect shine had already worn off. He made it into just two games with the Yankees before being traded once again, this time to the Blue Jays alongside Brandon Drury in exchange for J.A. Happ. He spent three years with Toronto in total and got into a combined 122 games during that time while slashing .230/.291/.439. He was DFA’d by the Jays following the 2020 season, however, and spent 2021 bouncing between multiple clubs. He ultimately appeared in a career-high 116 games that year but hit just .192/.280/.358 across 300 plate appearances with the Brewers, Mets, and Dodgers before being non-tendered by the Rangers that November.

A return to Oakland on a minor league deal in 2022 did not go well, but McKinney’s return to the Bronx in 2023 injected some life back into his career when he hit a solid .227/.320/.406 after being selected to the roster in June of that year following an injury suffered by Aaron Judge. McKinney’s roughly league average performance did not keep him on the club’s 40-man roster throughout the offseason, however, and he was outrighted off the 40-man and elected free agency that November. He initially re-signed with the Yankees on a minor league deal but was traded to the Pirates shortly thereafter. He hit .299/.406/.460 at the Triple-A level for the Pirates before being called up to the majors in August, though his lackluster 52 wRC+ in ten games wasn’t close to enough to earn him a more stable role with the organization.

After being outrighted last September and once again electing free agency, McKinney found himself unsigned until late March, when he landed with the Mets on the aforementioned minor league pact. Now in his age-30 season, McKinney struggled even with the club’s Syracuse affiliate this year, hitting just .184/.285/.307 across 130 trips to the plate in 33 games at the Triple-A level. That was enough for the Mets to decide to part ways with McKinney, and he’ll now return to free agency in search of a fresh opportunity elsewhere. As a depth option with the ability to handle first base and all three outfield spots, it’s not hard to imagine a club bringing him in on a fresh minor league deal, whether that’s to see if they can tap into the potential that made him a top prospect a decade ago or simply to fill out their Triple-A depth chart.

Royals Purchase John Gant’s Contract

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The Royals have purchased the contract of right-hander John Gant from the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks, according to a report from Robert Murray of Fansided. Gant will report to club’s Triple-A affiliate in Omaha.

It’s an exciting turn of events of Gant, who last pitched in the majors back in 2021 and hasn’t pitched much since. A 21st-round pick by the Mets all the way back in 2011, Gant was traded twice before he fully established himself in the majors: once from New York to Atlanta in the 2015 Juan Uribe trade, and a second time from Atlanta to St. Louis prior to the 2017 season in exchange for Jaime García. In between those two deals, Gant made his big league debut and pitched to a 4.86 ERA with a 4.39 FIP in a 50-inning cup of coffee with the Braves during the 2016 season.

The majority of Gant’s time in the majors came as a member of the Cardinals, however. The right-hander made just seven appearances with the club in 2017 but was a fixture of the club’s pitching staff as soon as the 2018 season, when he posted a 3.47 ERA (112 ERA+) in 114 innings of work spread across 19 starts and seven relief outings. His 4.07 FIP and pedestrian 19.5% strikeout rate both stood out as potential red flags about his abilities in that role, however, and so the Cardinals moved him to the bullpen full time ahead of the 2019 campaign. Gant spent two years as a full-time reliever for the Cards, and pitched quite well in that time with a 3.43 ERA (123 ERA+) and a matching 3.44 FIP thanks to a more robust 23.6% strikeout rate.

That strong performance in relief was enough to earn Gant another crack at starting in 2021, and it went fairly well early in the season. On June 1 of that year, Gant pitched six scoreless frames to lower his ERA to 1.60 on the year through 50 2/3 innings of work. That impressive figure was belied by a 4.02 FIP, but even replicating that figure the rest of the way would have been enough to make Gant a solid mid-rotation arm. Unfortunately, Gant was torched for 18 runs across 14 innings in his final four starts of the year for the Cardinals before moving back to the bullpen. With a 1.54 ERA (albeit one that was once again paired with a lackluster FIP of 4.71) in 11 relief appearances, Gant’s value was able to recover enough that the Cardinals swapped him to the Twins for veteran southpaw J.A. Happ at the trade deadline.

Gant pitched decently in seven relief outings for Minnesota but floundered once moved back into the rotation for the stretch run, surrendering a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings of work across seven starts in August and September. The Twins decided to cut bait on the righty after the 2021 season, and he elected free agency after clearing outright waivers that November. Once he became a free agent, he signed with the NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters to play in Japan during the 2022 season. Unfortunately, he was largely sidelined for the 2022-24 seasons, making just three appearances for the Fighters in 2023 and missing the other two seasons in that window entirely.

He’s re-emerged with the Ducks in 2025, however, and in his age-32 campaign he’s looked dominant with a 1.71 ERA across four starts while striking out 35.5% of opponents. Independent league play is obviously a far cry from the majors, but that level of dominance was still enough to get the attention of a Royals club in need of some extra starting pitching depth after losing Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans to the injured list this weekend.

Jared Jones To Meet With Dr. Keith Meister Regarding UCL Sprain

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Pirates fans received some ominous news today when John Perrotto of Pittsburgh Baseball Now reported that right-hander Jared Jones was “likely” to undergo Tommy John surgery. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com expanded on that report shortly thereafter, emphasizing that nothing has been decided yet regarding Jones’s status. With that being said, Stumpf did report that Jones is poised to meet with orthopedic surgeon (and Rangers head physician) Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and that surgery is “an option” for the righty, who was shut down near the end of Spring Training due to elbow soreness that eventually turned out to be a UCL sprain.

Jones was shut down for six weeks following that diagnosis, and (as noted by Stumpf) began playing catch at the tail end of April. Updates on Jones’s status have been sparse since then, but this latest update is not exactly an encouraging one. While it’s not yet clear if Jones will end up going under the knife, surgery after this attempt to rehab his elbow would still cost him his entire 2025 season, but could put his 2026 campaign in jeopardy as well. That’s a frustrating outcome for any pitcher, but particularly a 23-year-old who made his big league debut just last season an enjoyed a solid rookie campaign where he posted a 4.22 ERA and 4.01 FIP across 22 starts.

It may be quite some time before he’s able to attempt to build on that performance at this point. Losing Jones for that extended length of time would be crushing for a Pirates club that has struggled to a 15-32 record to this point in the season and is built around the strength of its young starting pitchers including Jones, 2024 NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes, and top prospect Bubba Chandler. That trio when paired with Mitch Keller and Andrew Heaney would make for one of the most fearsome on-paper rotations in the sport, but Chandler has yet to make his big league debut while Jones has been sidelined by injury all season.

Those dents in the armor that is the club’s rotation have only served to further exacerbate the issues brought on by a deeply flawed bullpen and lackluster offense. It’s already arguably cost the Pirates whatever shot they had at making a postseason run this year, but the loss of Jones for most or all of 2026 would risk casting a grim note over next season’s team as well without a significant turnaround going forward or a more robust financial outlay this winter than ownership has shown itself to be comfortable offering.

Of course, a meeting with a surgeon is not necessarily the same thing as being ticketed to undergo surgery itself. Gerrit Cole famously held a meeting with noted surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache last spring, but needed only to rehab his ailing elbow in the short-term and was able to return in the second half last year for the Yankees, though he did eventually end up requiring surgery during camp this past spring. Whether Jones ultimately ends up undergoing surgery or not at this time, it seems likely at the very least that his rehab progress will be slowed or perhaps even halted entirely. That would leave the Pirates without the talented young righty for even more of the 2025 campaign.

To this point, Bailey Falter (4.02 ERA) and Carmen Mlodzinski (5.67 ERA) have been relied upon to fill out the Pirates rotation behind Skenes, Keller, and Heaney. Chandler’s eventual promotion should create additional depth, however, and other options like Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington remain available in the minors who are already on the 40-man roster in case of further rotation injuries.

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