Marlins Designate Tim Anderson For Assignment
1:40pm: The Marlins have made it official, announcing Anderson’s DFA and the recall of Edwards, with the latter starting at shortstop tonight.
10:48am: Edwards will indeed be recalled to take Anderson’s spot on the roster, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10:28am: The Marlins have designated infielder Tim Anderson for assignment, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald. The team has not yet formally announced the move.
Anderson, 31, was Miami’s lone major league signing in free agency this past offseason. He inked a one-year, $5MM contract on the heels of what was then a career-worst .245/.286/.296 showing in his final season with the White Sox — the only organization he’s ever known. Both Anderson and the Marlins envisioned a rebound of some extent — if not to the outstanding .318/.347/.473 slash he posted in 2019-22, then at least to the point where he’d reclaim his status as a viable regular in a big league infield.
Instead, Anderson’s production has dipped even further. He’s posted career-worst marks in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and strikeout rate — all while delivering the second-worst walk rate of his career. In 241 plate appearances, Anderson is batting .214/.237/.226 with no home runs, a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 2.9% walk rate. Of the 230 hitters this season who’ve tallied at least 200 plate appearances, none has a lower wRC+ than Anderson’s mark of 31 (which indicates he’s been 69% worse than league-average at the plate).
While the Marlins technically have as many as five days to trade Anderson, the overwhelming likelihood is that he’ll simply be released. A team isn’t going to claim the remainder of this season’s salary if he’s placed on waivers, and that contract plus Anderson’s play over the past two seasons renders him without any trade value. Once he’s cleared release waivers, he’ll be free to sign with any club on a minor league or big league deal. A new team would owe Anderson only the prorated league minimum for any days spent on the MLB roster or injured list. That sum would be subtracted from what Miami is required to pay out, but the Fish are on the hook for the majority of his salary regardless.
Anderson’s departure for the roster will clear playing time for younger hitters like Vidal Brujan and perhaps Xavier Edwards. Brujan, once one of the game’s top prospects in Tampa Bay, is hitting .238/.306/.343 in 157 plate appearances with Miami but has received sparse playing time. Edwards, another former Rays prospect, has spent the bulk of the season in Triple-A Jacksonville and is hitting .330/.376/.450 in 119 trips to the plate. It’s a small sample that’s buoyed by a huge .361 average on balls in play, but Edwards is making tons of contact (9.2% strikeout rate). His bat-to-ball skills and speed have long been his calling cards, and at this juncture there’s little reason for a team in Miami’s situation not to take a look at someone like Edwards and/or Brujan over Anderson.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Kodai Senga To Begin Rehab Assignment; Mets To Recall Christian Scott
It seems reinforcements for the Mets’ rotation are on the horizon. Right-hander Kodai Senga, who’s missed the entire season thus far with a shoulder injury, is slated to throw 40 pitches in the first start of a minor league rehab assignment, per Will Sammon of The Athletic. New York will also recall top prospect Christian Scott from Triple-A Syracuse to start Wednesday’s game, manager Carlos Mendoza confirmed to reporters (X link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). Speculation regarding that possibility began when Scott was scratched from a scheduled start in Syracuse despite not having an injury.
Senga suffered a moderate capsule strain in his shoulder back in spring training. What was originally supposed to be a much shorter absence has been prolonged by multiple setbacks. Senga was facing live hitters in late April but scaled back to bullpen sessions without hitters as he looked to get his mechanics back on track. While going through that step, he incurred a triceps injury that necessitated a cortisone injection and led to another five-day shutdown. He’s been built up slowly but now seems ready to pitch in a game setting. He’ll surely require multiple rehab starts before he’s cleared to return. Tomorrow’s start will kick off a 30-day rehab window, though he can be activated earlier than that 30-day maximum, of course.
As for Scott, he’ll return to the big leagues after impressing in his first five MLB starts earlier this season. The 2021 fifth-rounder tossed 27 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA ball with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 34.2% grounder rate and 0.98 HR/9. Since returning to the minors, Scott has made four starts but been limited to 17 innings as the Mets look to manage his workload.
The 25-year-old Scott tossed only 87 2/3 innings last year and is already up to 70 innings this season. Managing his workload in the minors is easier than doing so in the majors, where the surging Mets have climbed back to .500 and thrust themselves into the midst of the NL Wild Card picture. Scott will now step back into the rotation alongside Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and David Peterson.
The looming changes to the Mets’ rotation come at a time when there have been rumblings about the team’s willingness to potentially move a veteran big league starter while still taking aim at pushing for the postseason. A trade involving staff leader Severino seems quite difficult to envision — and indeed, SNY’s Andy Martino reported yesterday is overwhelmingly unlikely so long as the team remains in playoff reach — but Quintana seems feasible (speculatively speaking).
The Mets have a growing collection of depth, with Severino, Manaea, Quintana, Peterson and Scott in the majors, Senga on the mend, and the trio of Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto on the 40-man roster down in Triple-A. Last year’s second-round pick, Brandon Sproat, has a sub-2.00 ERA in 67 innings between High-A and Double-A this season.
Senga’s progress and Scott’s performance in his big league return will be worth watching with a careful eye, as they’ll both be factors in the Mets’ willingness (or lack thereof) to deal from the big league staff in the weeks ahead. If the rotation depth looks sufficient, perhaps a veteran like Quintana could be flipped for some big league bullpen help — the sort of exchange between buyers that could fill needs on both clubs (while, in the Mets’ case, potentially shaving as much as $13MM from the books between Quintana’s salary and luxury-tax hit).
Giants Outright Trenton Brooks, Raymond Burgos
The Giants passed first baseman Trenton Brooks and lefty Raymond Burgos through waivers unclaimed, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Both were designated for assignment over the weekend, and both have now been assigned outright to Triple-A Sacramento.
Brooks, acquired last August in the trade sending Sean Newcomb across the bay to Oakland, made his MLB debut as a 28-year-old rookie this season. He went 3-for-25 (all singles), punched out six times and drew four walks.
That debut hardly turned many heads, but Brooks has clobbered Triple-A pitching this season and walked more often than he’s struck out in the process. Through 177 plate appearances, he’s hitting .308/.426/.462 with a 17.5% walk rate against a 15.3% strikeout rate. He’s homered four times and swiped six bases. This is Brooks’ fourth season of action at the Triple-A level, and he’s a career .277/.377/.471 hitter in 1365 trips to the plate there. That solid track record wasn’t enough to convince another club to claim him, so he’ll remain with the River Cats and give the Giants a depth option in the event that they need a left-handed bat or some help at first base and/or in the outfield corners.
Burgos, 25, also made his big league debut with the Giants recently. It lasted just one inning, and Burgos yielded a run on three hits and a walk with one punchout in that brief debut showing. The former Cleveland farmhand signed a minor league deal with San Francisco two offseasons ago and did so again earlier this year after very briefly pitching in Mexico. While he had lackluster results in Triple-A last year, Burgos has been excellent in Sacramento this time around. In 22 innings, Burgos boasts a 1.64 earned run average with a 27.4% strikeout rate against a comically low 2.4% walk rate.
As with Brooks, Burgos will remain in the organization as a depth option in Sacramento. Taylor Rogers and Erik Miller are the only healthy left-handers on the Giants’ 40-man roster at the moment, so Burgos could quickly find himself back in the mix for a big league role if anything happens to either southpaw.
Mets Currently Have Buyer Mentality, Could Focus On Bullpen Help
A month ago, the Mets looked like also-rans in the National League playoff picture. They followed up a 9-19 showing in the month of May with a pair of losses to begin June, but the Mets have since turned things around in dramatic fashion, going 16-6 over their past 22 games. Manager Carlos Mendoza’s squad is still a game under .500 and has minimal hope of catching the best-in-MLB Phillies (55-29), who lead the NL East by a margin of eight games over the Braves and 13.5 games ahead of New York. However, even at 40-41, the Mets are only two games out of the final spot for the final National League Wild Card spot.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that as things stand right now, the Mets are approaching the July 30 deadline with an eye toward adding to the team. President of baseball operations David Stearns tells Heyman that the bullpen, specifically, is an “area of the team we’re going to continue to monitor.”
Mets relievers rank 14th in the majors with a 3.77 earned run average. Both their 3.73 FIP and 3.47 SIERA rank more favorably among MLB clubs, and the Mets’ bullpen leads all of baseball with a 26.8% strikeout rate on the season. They’re not without their flaws, however. The bullpen in Queens has a 10.5% walk rate that ranks as the fifth-worst in MLB. The Mets also just lost righty Drew Smith to probable Tommy John surgery, and they’ve had an uneven season from closer Edwin Diaz. The Mets’ $102MM closer posted a 5.40 ERA in 20 innings before landing on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement, returned to rattle off three straight scoreless innings (three strikeouts, no walks) — but then was hit with a 10-game ban following a failed foreign substance check in his most recent appearance.
For much of the season, the focus on the Mets has been about who they might have to peddle to contending clubs at the deadline. Pete Alonso‘s name, in particular, has been a hotly debated topic, though Heyman writes that as of this time, the slugger “isn’t going anywhere.” So long as the Mets remain in arm’s reach of a postseason bid — particularly with considerable momentum on their side after their play in the past three weeks — it seems they’ll avoid straight sell-side transactions.
That said, both Heyman and SNY’s John Harper suggest there’s room for the Mets to walk both paths. New York’s pitching depth is improving with Kodai Senga on the mend. The Mets have several starters on short-term deals — Luis Severino and Jose Quintana most notably. The Post’s Mike Puma reported yesterday that the Mets could look to move some veteran starters, knowing that Senga is progressing toward a return while top prospect Christian Scott and young righty Jose Butto continue to impress in the upper minors.
Among their short-term veterans, Severino would presumably have the most value but is also the least likely to change hands. The longtime Yankee hurler has posted a 3.42 ERA in a team-high 97 1/3 innings with strong walk (8%) and ground-ball (50%) rates. Severino has a career-low marks in strikeout rate (18.5%) and swinging-strike rate (8.3%), but his revamped, sinker-heavy approach has nonetheless yielded impressive results. Moving him would register as a surprise, given that he’s presumably viewed as a leading candidate to make playoff starts, alongside a hopefully healthy Senga.
Lefty Sean Manaea, too, can become a free agent at season’s end. There are different sorts of hurdles when it comes to trading him. The veteran southpaw has turned in a 3.89 ERA in 76 1/3 innings with a strong 23.6% strikeout rate but also a career-worst 10.6% walk rate. More concerning for interested teams than his walk rate, though, would be the lefty’s contract. He inked a two-year, $28MM contract over the winter, but the second season of that deal is a $13.5MM player option.
Broadly speaking, teams are reluctant to trade for players who have player options and/or opt-out clauses on their contracts. Those clauses are pure downside for the acquiring team. If the player performs well or exceeds expectations post-trade, he’s all but assured taking the out clause and becoming a free agent. If said player incurs an injury or performs poorly, the acquiring team could be stuck with an additional year(s) of the player on a contract that outpaces his market value. Effectively, if the player performs well post-trade, he becomes a rental. If he plays poorly or gets hurt, it becomes an underwater multi-year contract.
Of the team’s veteran starters, Quintana might be the most straightforward option to change hands. The 35-year-old has had some struggles this season, posting a 4.57 ERA and proving uncharacteristically susceptible to home runs (1.42 HR/9). Quintana has a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate but a sharp 8.1% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a strong 44.5% clip.
Quintana has also pitched much better of late. An eight-run drubbing at the hands of the Rays back on May 3 represents nearly 20% of the lefty’s total earned runs this season. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of his 16 starts this season and owns a tidy 3.70 ERA over his past eight trips to the hill. Quintana is earning $13MM this season, with about $6.36MM of that sum yet to be paid out as of this writing. For the Mets, there’s some extra incentive to shed some of that salary; they’re paying a 110% tax on it because of their current luxury tax status. Though Quintana himself is only owed that remaining $6.36MM, trading him would save the Mets just shy of $13.5MM when factor in luxury tax considerations.
It bears emphasizing that there’s no indication the Mets view shedding a veteran starter as a necessity or even a likelihood. Being open-minded to that sort of move is nothing new for Stearns, who made several trades of big league players during his time atop the Brewers’ front office — even when the Brewers were in the midst of a contending season. And, as with most teams currently on the Wild Card bubble, the current mentality is presumably subject to change. The Mets played themselves into this spot with a torrid late-June showing, but it stands to reason that if the pendulum swings in the other direction and they lose several games in a row to fall considerably further back in the standings as the trade deadline draws nearer, they’d consider operating more as a conventional seller.
Rays Release Chris Devenski
The Rays have released right-hander Chris Devenski after designating him for assignment last week, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He’s now a free agent.
Any team can now sign Devenski to a big league or minor league deal. A new club would only be responsible for the prorated league minimum for any time he spends on the big league roster/injured list. That number would be subtracted from what the Rays owe, but Tampa Bay is on the hook for the bulk of the remainder of his $1.1MM salary.
Devenski, 33, joined the Rays late in the 2023 season after being cut loose by the Angels and tossed 8 2/3 sharp innings down the stretch, holding opponents to a pair of runs on five hits and two walks with nine strikeouts. He added another two shutout innings (one hit allowed) during the postseason. The Rays re-signed him to a big league deal over the winter, but Devenski hasn’t replicated that small-sample success this time around.
In 2024, Devenski pitched 26 2/3 innings in 19 appearances out of the bullpen, yielding a gloomy 6.75 ERA with a below-average 19.7% strikeout rate against a weighty 11.5% walk rate. He’s also been immensely homer-prone, surrendering nine long balls in his brief stint — an average of 3.04 homers per nine innings pitched.
Early in his career, Devenski was a powerhouse reliever for the Astros, pitching to a 2.38 ERA in 189 innings of relief from 2016-17 and striking out 28.2% of opponents versus a 6.4% walk rate. His results have taken a notable step back since that time, in part due to injuries. Most notably, Devenski underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021, limiting him to 7 1/3 innings that season and just 33 2/3 innings the following season.
Devenski’s bread and butter has long been a plus changeup that helps him neutralize left-handed opponents. It’s given him reverse splits throughout his career, and that’s carried into the 2024 season. He’s held lefties to a .211/.262/.439 slash in 61 plate appearances this season. In an identical number of plate appearances, however, righties have torched him with a .314/.426/.745 batting line.
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Dodgers Rumors: Stone, Crochet, Shortstop, Outfield
Several teams tried to pry right-hander Gavin Stone from the Dodgers in offseason trade talks, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today, but Los Angeles held firm on the former top prospect and is now reaping the benefits. After yielding 31 runs in his first 31 big league innings last season, Stone has emerged as a vital member of manager Dave Roberts’ rotation.
Stone, 25, ranks second on the Dodgers with 89 innings pitched and is tied for second with 15 games started. He’s posted a terrific 2.73 earned run average through the season’s halfway point. While his 19.5% strikeout rate is below average and his .268 average on balls in play and 6.3% homer-to-flyball ratio suggest there’s likely some ERA regression in store, he has the look of a legitimate big league starter. The 2020 fifth-round pick has been a constant in the L.A. rotation while the team has navigated injuries for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and others.
The Dodgers have a whopping six starters on the injured list, to say nothing of oft-injured arms like James Paxton and Tyler Glasnow healthy and in the rotation. Glasnow, in particular, is already 17 innings from his career-high at the MLB level (120 innings). He’s never topped 155 innings in any professional season before.
Unsurprisingly, given the wide slate of current injuries and the health histories of their current arms, the Dodgers have been exploring the market for pitching. Nightengale reported within that same column that the Dodgers have already made an offer to the White Sox for lefty Garrett Crochet, which has been rejected, and the latest report from Ken Rosenthal, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic also touches on Los Angeles’ interest in Crochet.
Crochet isn’t an ideal fit for a team seeking consistent, bankable innings — as the Dodgers currently are. This year’s 101 1/3 innings is more than Crochet, a 2020 draftee, had thrown in his entire professional career combined prior to the ’24 campaign. There are questions about how the left-hander will hold up down the stretch, and The Athletic trio suggests he’s not a lock to spend the remainder of the season pitching in a regular rotation role if he is indeed moved — as the White Sox are reportedly planning on after extension talks with Crochet quickly stalled out. The Dodgers, however, view Crochet as a legitimate October weapon regardless of the role in which he’s used and could simply figure out the specifics of his usage down the line, depending on how the second half of the season plays out.
Rotation innings are just one of multiple questions the Dodgers will face over the next four-plus weeks as the deadline looms. They’re also staring down an absence of six to eight weeks for star leadoff man Mookie Betts, who in recent years has moved from right field to both middle-infield positions, playing virtually anywhere the team asks without seeing any real drop-off in his MVP-caliber offensive production. With Betts on the shelf, the Dodgers have plugged hot-hitting Miguel Rojas back into a regular role at shortstop, and the veteran’s play this season could make that a more permanent arrangement when when Betts is healthy.
“I would, I would,” manager Dave Roberts replied when asked by Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times whether he’d consider keeping Rojas his everyday shortstop when Betts returns. “I don’t think anyone can debate the level of shortstop play from Miguel Rojas. Some of it is contingent on the timeline for Mookie’s return and where Miggy is physically and how things are going. But to your question, would I consider it? Absolutely.”
Rojas, 35, is hitting .297/.344/.446 (126 wRC+) — his best career production outside of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s playing his customary brand of high-end defense at shortstop, drawing lavish praise from both Roberts and Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, who calls Rojas one of the five best defensive shortstops in the sport. (Statcast lists Rojas tied for seventh among all shortstops with six Outs Above Average in just 215 innings this season; every other name among the top-8 this season has played more than 700 innings).
Keeping Rojas at shortstop and sliding Betts back over to second base in place of Gavin Lux could deepen the team’s lineup and improve the defense. The Athletic report notes that adding an everyday outfielder would allow the Dodgers to use Betts at second base and go with a platoon of Andy Pages and Jason Heyward in the outfield alongside the new acquisition and Teoscar Hernandez.
Of course, that’s just one of many viable scenarios, and it’s not framed within that report as a clear objective so much as one of various possibilities that could be explored. Alternatively, if the Dodgers were to add someone who can handle second base on a regular basis — and do so at a higher level than in-house choices like Lux, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez — that could push Betts back to the outfield.
As is frequently the case with the Dodgers, their blend of versatile defenders and a hefty lead in the division combine to create various trade avenues to explore while also reducing urgency to complete a deal. Los Angeles holds a 7.5-game lead over second-place San Diego in the NL West. They’ll surely upgrade in multiple areas between now and July 30, but the size of their lead likely reduces pressure on president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and their staff to complete something in the short-term and gives them the luxury of taking a fluid approach to augmenting an already first-place roster.
Nationals Promote James Wood, Designate Eddie Rosario For Assignment
The Nationals have made top prospect James Wood‘s previously reported promotion to the major leagues official, formally announcing the selection of his contract from Triple-A Rochester. In a corresponding move, veteran outfielder Eddie Rosario has been designated for assignment.
Wood’s promotion to the majors was reported last Friday, and MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald broke down the vaunted outfielder’s impending ascension to the majors at the time. The 21-year-old had laid waste to upper-minors pitching this season, delivering an outrageous .353/.463/.595 slash with 10 homers, 16 doubles and nearly as many walks (40) as strikeouts (42). Wood has drawn a free pass in a massive 17.3% of his trips to the plate and chipped in a 10-for-11 showing in stolen base attempts as well.
A second-round pick of the Padres back in 2021, Wood has elevated his status to the point that he’s widely regarded as the top yet-to-debut prospect in the sport. Baseball America and MLB.com both rank him as the game’s No. 3 prospect, but the players ahead of him between those two lists (Paul Skenes, Jackson Holliday, Junior Caminero) have all reached the majors at least briefly. Based on the timing of his promotion, Wood will now be under team control through at least the 2030 season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2027-28 offseason.
Wood now joins top Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams as potential core pieces acquired by the Nationals in the blockbuster trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego two summers ago. The Nats still have minor league outfielder Robert Hassell III and minor league lefty Jarlin Susana working their way through the system as well. Neither is viewed as having the type of ceiling Wood, Abrams and Gore have already shown, but Hassell is still just 22 and reached Double-A this year, while the 20-year-old Susana is in his second season at Low-A. Both players could yet reach the big leagues in the next few years.
Turning to the 32-year-old Rosario, he’s long been seen as a potential casualty of Wood’s big league promotion. The former Twins, Braves and Guardians outfielder signed a minor league deal with a $2MM base salary during spring training and made the team’s Opening Day roster despite a poor showing in nine spring contests. Rosario had an awful first month of the season (.088/.137/.162 through the end of April), followed by a blistering May (.253/.319/.530) before falling into another major swoon (.191/.200/.250 in June).
Overall, Rosario’s time with the Nats will draw to a close with a .183/.226/.329 batting line. That’s 46% worse than league-average production, by measure of wRC+ (54). Rosario’s 5.5% walk rate was his lowest since 2019, while his 23% strikeout rate is roughly in line with the 2022-23 rates he showed in Atlanta (but a far cry from the 16.1% mark he turned in from 2017-21).
The Braves acquired Rosario in a 2021 salary-dump deal with Cleveland and immediately saw him go on a magical run down the stretch, slashing .271/.330/.573 with seven homers in 106 plate appearances. He went on to deliver a legendary 14-for-25 performance with three home runs during the National League Championship Series, taking home NLCS MVP honors in the process, before slumping in the World Series.
Rosario’s late surge with Atlanta prompted the team to re-sign him on a two-year, $18MM contract that proved regrettable. He hit .212/.259/.328 in his first season of that contract, and while Rosario bounced back with 21 homers in 2023, his overall batting line was effectively league average (100 wRC+) while his defense continued to receive lackluster grades. Rosario was a productive everyday outfielder with the Twins from 2017-20 but in four seasons since that time he’s turned in a .236/.283/.403 batting line with poor defense and mounting strikeout rates.
The Nats will have five days to trade Rosario, release him or place him on outright waivers, though a veteran with Rosario’s service time would surely just reject an outright assignment to Triple-A anyhow. It’s unlikely that any team would claim even the modest remainder on Rosario’s contract. The likeliest outcome is a release, at which point Rosario will be free to sign with any team. A new club could owe him only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the Nats still owe him, but Washington will be on the hook for the majority of his contract at this point.
Rays Could Make Multiple Starters Available On Trade Market
The 40-41 Rays are one of many key teams to keep an eye on as the trade deadline draws near. While they’re buried in the American League East and unlikely to close their current 10.5-game deficit, they’re also only four games out of the final American League Wild Card spot. At the same time, Tampa Bay could soon find itself with a growing number of big league starters — more than it has room to plug into its rotation.
Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will be ready to rejoin the rotation before long; both pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgery — Baz’s performed in late 2022 and Springs’ performed early last season. Baz already completed a minor league rehab assignment and has continued building up in Triple-A.
Once regarded as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game, the 25-year-old Baz got out to a rough start during his rehab stint but has now rattled off five starts with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has been on rehab for several weeks as well but has yet to pitch more than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Prior to his Tommy John procedure, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the latest in a long line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.
Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a trade that sent catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. At the time, Springs was a journeyman lefty who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial big league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to the tune of a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31MM extension — but Springs unfortunately went under the knife just three starts into the 2023 campaign.
With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure just under one year ago — the Rays indeed have a mounting stock of arms. The Athletic trio notes in their report that of the team’s current starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be available in trades. Both pitchers are in their second year of arbitration eligibility and controlled through the 2025 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired last summer in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is earning $4.9MM this year. Littell, yet another product of the Rays’ almost comical hidden-gem factory (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), is earning just $1.8MM.
Of the two, Littell is enjoying the stronger season but also has the shorter track record. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly average 22% strikeout rate against an exceptional 4.3% walk rate. Since the Rays took the former starter-turned-reliever and plugged him back into a rotation role last July, he’s given them 27 starts with a 3.98 earned run average, 20.2% strikeout rate and even more impressive 3.6% walk rate. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in depth earlier this season in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers.)
Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone as the team had hoped when acquiring him last year. He’s posted strong strikeout and walk rates alike, but his sharp K-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up home runs. The 29-year-old righty has started 26 games for Tampa Bay dating to last summer’s trade but logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Despite upping his strikeout rate from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and maintaining his terrific command (6.1% walk rate in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 with his former club to 5.26 with his current one. After yielding 1.19 homers per nine frames in five seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 big flies per nine since heading to St. Petersburg.
There hasn’t been a major change in Civale’s repertoire that’s clearly prompted that flaw. He’s throwing more sliders this year at the expensive of his cutter, but it’s not an overwhelming change in usage rates and the righty is still using the same blend of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as well.
Despite Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no shortage of teams interested in adding him and/or Littell to their staff for the next season and a half. Both arms are affordable — particularly for teams with CBT concerns — and there established rotation arms in general will be in short supply. That’s all the more true given recent injuries to trade candiates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm shortage could position the Rays to deal from their current rotation and then replace whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm that’s returning from injury.
Darragh McDonald and I discussed this possibility with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, also touching on the possibility of the Rays drawing interest in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably more important to the team’s staff than either Civale or Littell, but he’s also the most expensive starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40MM deal in free agency prior to the 2023 season. It’s a heavily backloaded pact that will pay Eflin $18MM in 2025 — a hefty number by the Rays’ typically thrifty standards. With Springs, Baz and Rasmussen all on the mend and able to join young arms like Baz, Bradley and Pepiot in next year’s rotation, the always cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to listen on Eflin while pondering a similar gamut to the Littell/Civale scenario laid out in The Athletic’s report.
It bears emphasizing that even if the Rays end up selling — or, as they often have in the past, operating on both the “buy” and “sell” side of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the front office is not interested in a large-scale rebuild. Even if the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will be to reload and take aim and contending again in 2025. Given the wealth of young and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that keeps churning out interesting young hitters, the Rays likely feel they have the foundation of a contending club largely in place.
As is so often the case this time of year, the Rays appear positioned as one of the teams who will in many ways dictate a fair bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether they rattle off several wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card position, maintain the status quo as a bubble team or drop further down the standings, their slate of rehabbing quality arms gives them the flexibility to shop current big league arms — be it for other big leaguers in areas of need or near-MLB prospects who can help in 2025.