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Thairo Estrada Elects Free Agency

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The Rockies announced Thursday that infielder Thairo Estrada passed through waivers unclaimed and elected free agency. Colorado also claimed right-hander Garrett Acton off waivers from the Rays. He’d been designated for assignment by Tampa Bay earlier in the week.

Colorado turned down its end of a mutual option on Estrada earlier this week, but since he has yet to accrue six years of major league service, he remained on the roster as an arbitration-eligible player. After Estrada missed most of the 2025 season due to injury and hit just .253/.285/.370 when healthy, the Rox will move on and Estrada will head to the open market in search of new opportunities.

Estrada, 30 in February, had a solid three-year run with the Giants from 2021-23, hitting a combined .266/.320/.416 with plus defense and plus baserunning. Injuries have tanked his production since late in 2023, however. Estrada suffered a broken left hand that year, then missed time with a ligament injury in his left wrist in 2024. He broke his right wrist when he was hit by a pitch this spring and, after returning, missed additional time due to thumb and hamstring injuries. He’s been limited to 546 plate appearances across the past two seasons and turned in a woeful .228/.258/.351 batting line in that time.

Second base has been Estrada’s primary position, though he’s also seen ample time at shortstop and briefer appearances at third base and across all three outfield slots. Statcast pegs him as a plus defender at second, though Defensive Runs Saved is on the other end of the spectrum. At the very least, he’s a fleet-footed utility man with experience at six defensive spots and a lower-than-average strikeout rate at the plate.

Acton, 27, signed a two-year minor league deal with the Rays going into 2024. He had undergone Tommy John surgery prior to signing that deal and missed the entire 2024 campaign. He was added to the 40-man late in 2025 and tossed one scoreless inning in the bigs. He threw 58 2/3 innings in Triple-A with a 3.68 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate.

Red Sox, Cooper Criswell Agree To Deal For 2026

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The Red Sox and righty Cooper Criswell have agreed to terms on a contract for the 2026 season, reports FanSided’s Robert Murray. Criswell, a client of Republik Sports, was already on the 40-man roster but wasn’t necessarily a lock to stick all offseason. He’s now agreed to a fully guaranteed $800K, per Murray, which greatly enhances his chances of staying in place.

Boston could still pass Criswell through waivers at some point this winter. He’s out of minor league options and would thus need to break camp with the club or else be designated for assignment. The fully guaranteed $800K, while only a bit north of the league minimum salary, makes it less likely that he’d be claimed by another club and also ensures that Criswell would accept an outright to the minors. He’d have the right to reject a minor league assignment upon clearing waivers by virtue of the fact that he’s been outrighted in the past, but he doesn’t have the service time necessary to reject and retain the remainder of that guarantee.

The 29-year-old Criswell appeared in seven games for the Sox this year, logging 17 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball but with only an 11.3% strikeout rate. He’s totaled 154 2/3 innings across parts of five major league seasons and carries a career 4.48 ERA, 16.7% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate between the Angels, Rays and Red Sox. He also tossed 65 2/3 innings of 3.70 ERA ball for the Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in Worcester this season, working primarily as a starter.

While Criswell isn’t going to be penciled into next year’s rotation, he’ll be a depth option and could compete for a swing role in camp. Rotation help will be a focus for Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow this winter. Ace Garrett Crochet will again lead the rotation. He’ll be followed by Brayan Bello, but the rest of the group is more in flux. Kutter Crawford missed the entire season due to oblique and wrist injuries — the latter requiring surgery in July. Tanner Houck had Tommy John surgery this summer. Hunter Dobbins’ season ended with an ACL tear. Lucas Giolito is a free agent.

Top prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early debuted late in the season and impressed to varying extents, but neither will simply be handed a rotation spot. Veteran Patrick Sandoval should be healthy after spending 2025 rehabbing from UCL surgery. Former top prospect Kyle Harrison, acquired in the Rafael Devers trade, will be in the mix — as will righty Richard Fitts. There are plenty of in-house options, but some of those names could move to the bullpen and others may need more time in Triple-A. Adding a playoff-caliber arm to the rotation mix seems likely, whether that addition comes via free agency or trade.

Braves To Decline Club Option On Pierce Johnson

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The Braves will decline their $7MM club option on right-handed reliever Pierce Johnson, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll receive a $250K buyout and become a free agent. Johnson is the second affordable reliever whose 2026 option has been declined by Atlanta today. The Braves also opted for a buyout over exercising Tyler Kinley’s $5.5MM option.

It’s a fairly surprising decision regarding Johnson, who’s pitched well in two-plus seasons with Atlanta — particularly in 2025. The 34-year-old righty was acquired from the Rockies at the 2023 deadline, posted a sub-1.00 ERA down the stretch and was rewarded with a two-year, $14MM contract. Johnson has pitched 115 1/3 innings of 3.36 ERA ball since putting pen to paper on that deal, including a 3.05 ERA in 59 1/3 frames this past season. He’s posted nice strikeout and walk rates overall, and in 2025 fanned one-quarter of his opponents against an 8% walk rate.

That said, Johnson will be 35 next May and is coming off a poor finish to his season. Nearly half the runs he allowed on the year came over the final month of play. From Aug. 25 onward, Johnson was rocked for nine runs on 19 hits and three walks. Four of those 19 knocks left the yard. His strikeout rate dropped nearly three percentage points, and his average fastball dipped by about 0.4 mph. Those aren’t necessarily catastrophic red flags, but it’s also surely not a finish with which he or the team is satisfied.

While both the Johnson and Kinley decisions are somewhat surprising in isolation, the broader trend of seeing teams turn down reasonably priced options early in an offseason has been around for several years. Just last offseason, we saw reasonably priced options on Colin Rea, Andrew Chafin and Danny Coulombe bought out. Those teams clearly preferred not to allocate notable resources to relievers who weren’t set to be key leverage arms in 2025 (though Johnson was a regular in high-leverage spots with Atlanta). Even as far back as 2020, Cleveland waived Brad Hand and bought him out rather than pick up a $10MM option.

It’s tempting to read a bit too deep into the Braves’ bullpen decisions today, but declining options on a pair of mid-30s relievers doesn’t necessarily serve as a portent for an uncharacteristically thrifty offseason. Atlanta is never a particularly big spender in free agency under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, but the Braves typically add a mid-tier free agent or two and are active on the trade market. More of the same could unfold. By forgoing the club options on Johnson and Kinley, their projected luxury tax number at the moment is around $197MM rather than nearly $209MM, per RosterResource.

As for Johnson, he’s coming off a nice run of two and a half seasons working as a setup man. He still sits 95-96 mph with his heater and still posted quality rate stats. He ought to command a big league deal in free agency, although the lack of a trade likely indicates that he might have a hard time exceeding the $7MM price point of his prior option.

With Johnson and Kinley out of the mix, the back-end of Atlanta’s bullpen includes Joe Jimenez, Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee. Anthopoulos & Co. will surely make further additions in the months ahead. The Braves have already been linked to a potential reunion with outgoing closer Raisel Iglesias, and there’s no shortage of veteran arms to peruse on this offseason’s open market.

Rays To Exercise Option On Brandon Lowe

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The Rays have informed second baseman Brandon Lowe that they’ll exercise his $11.5MM club option for the 2026 season, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It’s the final season on the extension Lowe signed back in March 2019. He’ll wind up having earned $45MM over the eight years on that deal. Lowe is slated to become a free agent next offseason.

There was never any doubt as to whether the option would be exercised. The 31-year-old Lowe has been a consistently above-average hitter throughout his big league tenure, dating all the way back to his MLB debut in 2018. That includes 2025, when Lowe slugged 31 home runs in just 134 games. The lefty-swinging slugger turned in an overall .256/.307/.477 batting line. While his 6.9% walk rate was the lowest of his career, Lowe’s 91.1 mph average exit velocity and 46.4% hard-hit rate were some of the best he’s posted in his eight major league seasons.

The only real uncertainty surrounding Lowe’s option was whether it’d be the Rays or another club picking it up. With just one more year of control on his deal and the Rays’ penchant for trading veteran players as the end of their control windows near, Lowe stands as an obvious trade candidate. Tampa Bay could’ve flipped him to another club before the option decision was due — they could still do the same with closer Pete Fairbanks and his still-pending $11MM option/$1MM buyout, it should be noted — but at least for the time being, Lowe will slot in as the projected second baseman next year.

[Related: Top 40 Trade Candidates of the 2025-26 MLB Offseason]

Over the course of his eight big league seasons, Lowe is a .247/.326/.481 hitter with 157 home runs, 126 doubles, 12 triples, 33 steals, a 9.4% walk rate and a 27.3% strikeout rate. He’s typically graded out as a solid defensive second baseman, though he was dogged by both Defensive Runs Saved (-14) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (-13) during the 2025 season.

Lowe spent time on the injured list due to both oblique and ankle/foot injuries. It’s feasible that either or both could’ve impacted his performance on the defensive side of the coin. His defensive grades have fluctuated wildly on a year-to-year basis, which perhaps isn’t a major surprise for a player who’s previously been sidelined by back injuries, a bone bruise in his shin and, near the end of the 2023 season, a fractured right patella (kneecap).

Even if Lowe never reclaims his status as an above-average defender following that Sept. 2023 knee injury, his bat will keep him in major league lineups. A move to another position could eventually be possible, too. He’s logged more than 300 innings in the outfield corners over his career, though he’s no longer the above-average runner he was early on, ranking in the 36th percentile of position players with his 2025 sprint speed. Lowe has drawn fine grades in 155 innings at first base as well, and his 30-homer power would play well at that position if a full-time move is needed at any point.

Rays Exercise Option On Taylor Walls

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The Rays and infielder Taylor Walls are in agreement on a deal for the 2026 season, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The team will be exercising the $2.45MM club option that covers Walls’ second arbitration season but is also adding a club option that proactively covers his third year in 2027. That option is valued at $3.1MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. Walls is represented by Vayner Sports.

The 29-year-old Walls led the team in shortstop appearances last season, providing quality glovework but little to no production in the batter’s box. The 2017 third-rounder was credited with a superlative 17 Defensive Runs Saved but turned in an anemic .220/.280/.319 line (66 wRC+) at the plate. He did draw walks at close to a league-average clip and has been well above average in that regard throughout his career as a whole. Walls also provided a bit of value on the bases, though his 14-for-20 showing in stolen base attempts wasn’t nearly as efficient as in the earlier years of his career; he entered the season with 52 steals in 62 tries.

Heading into 2026, Walls gives Tampa Bay some cover at shortstop in the event that top prospect Carson Williams needs more time in Triple-A. Williams made his big league debut this year but hit poorly in his first 32 games/106 MLB plate appearances, slashing only .172/.219/.354 with an alarming 41.5% strikeout rate. Williams spent the rest of the season in Triple-A and didn’t exactly light things up there either (.213/.318/.447), though he was just 21 years old for most of his time at the top minor league level.

Williams will head to spring training squarely in the mix for Tampa Bay’s Opening Day shortstop job, but if he struggles in Grapefruit League play, the Rays can send him back to Triple-A Durham for more seasoning and turn shortstop back over to Walls, knowing he’ll at least provide a quality glove and a bit of speed out of the ninth spot in the batting order while Williams rounds out his development. If Williams does nab the shortstop job from the jump next year, Walls can fill a utility role; he’s also drawn strong grades for his defense at second base and third base.

Walls’ 2026 club option contained a $50K buyout, so it was a net $2.4MM decision for the team. He’d have remained under club control even if the Rays had declined the option. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Walls for a $2MM salary, so the Rays either projected a higher number for Walls or picked up the option at a marginally higher-than-expected rate as a trade-off to secure another club option year at a relatively low rate.

That same scenario will hold true next winter as well. The Rays could decline the option and still keep Walls for a lesser amount in arbitration, depending on how his season plays out. Today’s deal doesn’t buy out any potential free agent seasons. Walls is still under club control through 2027 and is slated to become a free agent in the 2027-28 offseason.

Rockies Claim Troy Johnston

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The Rockies announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed infielder/outfielder Troy Johnston off waivers from the Marlins. Colorado also reinstated Kris Bryant and righty Jeff Criswell from the 60-day injured list, adding both back to the 40-man roster.

Johnston, 28, was a 17th-round pick by Miami back in 2019 and has been a career-long Marlin to this point. He made his big league debut this season after a lengthy run of productive campaigns n the upper minors. The Gonzaga product hit .277/.331/.420 with four home runs in 121 plate appearances during his first run at the MLB level.

In Johnston, the Rockies are adding an older but controllable player with a strong minor league track record. Johnston is a career .281/.367/.458 hitter in seven minor league seasons. His .267/.345/.438 slash in parts of four Triple-A campaigns is weighed down a bit by an awful debut there back in 2022 (116 plate appearances), but he’s been an above-average hitter with the Marlins’ top affiliate in Jacksonville each season since.

Though Johnston has primarily been a first baseman in the minors, with more than 4300 innings logged at the position, he’s also suited up for 826 innings in left field and 492 innings in right field. Since his contract was selected to the 40-man roster for the first time this season and he wasn’t optioned back down thereafter, he’ll join the Rox with a full slate of three minor league option years remaining.

It’s not entirely clear who’s making roster calls in the Colorado front office at the moment. The Rockies fired GM Bill Schmidt shortly after the season, and longtime assistant GM Zack Rosenthal left the club shortly thereafter. Owner Dick Monfort and his son, executive vice president Walker Monfort, have been conducting a search for a new baseball operations leader over the past month but have yet to announce a hire. It’s possible they’re making calls with input from some of the still-remaining midlevel baseball operations executives while continuing through a hiring process that as of last week was down to two finalists but once again appears more wide open.

Pirates Place Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, Jack Little On Waivers

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The Pirates have placed three players on waivers. One of them is outfielder Ji Hwan Bae, per Danny Demilio of Pittsburgh Baseball Now. The other two are infielder Liover Peguero and right-hander Jack Little, per Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

At one point, the now-26-year-old Bae was a high-profile international signing who ranked among the organization’s better farmhands. He’s appeared in parts of four big league seasons but has never found his stride. The South Korea native carries a meek .223/.294/.293 line in 514 trips to the plate at the MLB level. He’s a good runner, swiping 37 bags in 49 tries (75.6%) and sitting in the 82nd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed, but Bae has fanned in more than one-quarter of his plate appearances and sits well below average in terms of exit velocity, hard-hit rate and other batted-ball metrics.

Originally a middle infielder, Bae never developed into a passable option at shortstop due in large part to subpar arm strength. The Bucs have given him plenty of run at second base and in center field — more the latter in recent seasons — but he hasn’t drawn quality grades at either position. He’s continually posted strong numbers in Triple-A (.305/.389/.451 in 1109 plate appearances) and has a minor league option remaining.

Peguero was an even more highly touted prospect than Bae. Originally acquired from the D-backs in exchange for Starling Marte, he’s a former top-100 prospect whom the organization at one point viewed as a possible shortstop of the future. In an all-too-common refrain for Pirates position prospects, however, his bat never came around. Peguero has seen action in four big league seasons but has mustered only a .227/.278/.368 slash line in 315 turns at the plate.

Unlike Bae, Peguero has also looked overmatched at the top minor league level. Outside of a late-2023 cameo in Triple-A where he smacked a pair of homers in 30 promising plate appearances, Peguero has produced well below-average numbers with the Pirates’ top affiliate in Indianapolis. He’s a .253/.317/.403 hitter in 888 plate appearances there, including a career-worst .247/.313/.375 showing in 75 games with Indy this season. Baseball America and other outlets have lauded his quality defensive tools but also noted a penchant for slipping into poor mechanical stretches that lead to far too many throwing errors. Peguero is out of minor league options.

The 27-year-old Little came to the Pirates via waivers in August. He made his MLB debut with the Dodgers in 2025. Los Angeles selected Little out of Stanford with its fifth-round pick back in 2019. He’s pitched only three MLB innings and posted a 4.06 ERA with a 20.2% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in 62 relief innings between the two organizations’ Triple-A affiliates in 2025.

Little sits 94 mph with his four-seamer and complements the pitch with a slider and splitter — both in the mid-80s. He’s never been a top-ranked prospect in L.A.’s system but does have a pair of minor league options remaining and decent track record in the minors.

Krall: Reds’ 2026 Payroll Will Be “Around The Same” As 2025 Levels

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The Reds enter the offseason likely to seek bullpen help and multiple upgrades within the lineup, but they won’t have an especially lofty budget for achieving those goals. President of baseball operations Nick Krall said Tuesday that 2026’s budget “will be around the same as our payroll from 2025” (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic).

Cincinnati opened the 2025 season with a roughly $112MM payroll and finished around $116MM, per Cot’s Contracts. RosterResource pegs their end-of-season number a bit higher, at about $119MM.

Regardless, running back the same payroll gives the Reds a bit of spending power but not all that much. They’re currently projected for a payroll around $91MM, per RosterResource. That’s before option decisions on relievers Scott Barlow and Brent Suter. Barlow’s $6.5MM option seems likely to be bought out. Suter is a bit more of a borderline call at $3MM but could still be cut loose (or re-signed to a restructured deal with lighter immediate payroll implications, as was the case for the Cincinnati native this time last year).

The 2025 Reds nabbed the final NL Wild Card spot and saw an attendance increase of about 147,000 over their 2024 levels. However, the 2025 payroll was up about $20MM over the prior season, so much of the increased attendance revenue was offset by a more expensive on-field product. Reds ownership has never trotted out an Opening Day payroll north of roughly $127MM — though their prorated $55.5MM Opening Day payroll in 2020 indicates they’d have set a new franchise-high were it not for that year’s shortened schedule.

Cincinnati currently has just three players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season. Ace Hunter Greene will earn $8MM, while third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is owed $7MM and catcher Jose Trevino is owed $5.25MM. Assuming the options on Barlow, Suter and outfielder Austin Hays (a $12MM mutual option) are bought out, their only other financial commitments will be in arbitration. The Reds already outrighted infielder Santiago Espinal and reliever Ian Gibaut, sparing themselves a projected $4.6MM in salary between the two of them.

The Reds still have 12 arbitration-eligible players even after that pair of outrights (effectively non-tenders), but the only players projected to earn more than $5MM are right-hander Brady Singer ($11.9MM) and catcher Tyler Stephenson ($6.4MM). Any of Gavin Lux ($5MM), Sam Moll ($1.2MM) or Will Benson ($1.7MM) could be non-tendered or traded to buy a little extra breathing room. Speculatively, the pitching-rich Reds could swap out Singer for a comparably priced veteran bat to plug into their outfield (e.g. Taylor Ward).

Krall has downplayed the possibility of trading a starter, but the quintet of Greene, Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and top prospect Chase Burns is strong as it is, and well-regarded young arms like Chase Petty and Rhett Lowder loom as rotation possibilities as well.

Adding to the bullpen also figures to be on Krall’s to-do list. Closer Emilio Pagan is a free agent. Holdovers Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips all showed well in 2025 (Phillips in a fairly small 25-inning sample), while young flamethrowers Luis Mey and Zach Maxwell provide some upside. Still, there’s not much end-of-the-game certainty among the group, making a few reasonably priced bullpen pickups seem likely.

Depending on further non-tenders and some potential trades, it seems the Reds probably have room for one big-ticket item. A major bat like Pete Alonso or Cincinnati native Kyle Schwarber would be highly out of character, but there’s probably enough payroll flexibility to make that type of splash if the other moves are minimally priced. The likelier outcome would be a handful of more measured, mid-range additions to the roster, likely with a bit of wiggle room left for in-season maneuverings like we saw with this summer’s acquisitions of Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar.

Braves To Exercise Club Option On Ozzie Albies

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The Braves are going to pick up their club option on infielder Ozzie Albies. The club hasn’t announced the decision yet but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos confirmed the move in a radio appearance, per Mark Zinno of 92.9 The Game. Atlanta will pay him a $7MM salary instead of the $4MM buyout. There’s also a $7MM club option for 2027 but with no buyout.

Even coming off a down season, there was never any scenario where Atlanta would turn down what’s a net $3MM option to keep Albies in the fold. The 28-year-old switch-hitter (29 in January) posted a career-worst .240/.306/.365 batting line (87 wRC+) in 157 games/667 plate appearances this past season, but he’s also not far removed from a 33-homer campaign and .280/.336/.513 output back in 2023. Plus, Albies finished the season looking far more like his typical self; over his final 264 turns at the plate, he produced a .272/.330/.439 line that sat about 11% better than league average.

Albies is now entering year six of what can max out as a seven-year contract. He inked a five-year, $35MM extension that has long stood as one of baseball’s great bargains. That deal contained a pair of $7MM club options, the first of which is now guaranteed bringing the total to six years and $38MM. (The $4MM buyout was included in the original $35MM guarantee.)

Even if Atlanta brass had soured on Albies’ long-term outlook — and, to be clear, there’s no indication that’s the case — picking up the option was a no-brainer. Albies’ bargain-rate salary and matching club option (with no buyout) would still hold appeal to teams seeking second base upgrades on the trade market.

As things stand, Albies can be reasonably expected to serve as the Braves’ everyday second baseman again in 2026. He’ll return to a lineup that’s set at most positions. Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy will split catching duties. Matt Olson is locked in at first base. Third baseman Austin Riley is signed through 2032. Ronald Acuña Jr. is heading into the final guaranteed season on his contract but, like Albies, has a pair of no-brainer club options (his covering 2027-28). Jurickson Profar is signed through 2027. Michael Harris II, who like Albies had a terrible three months followed by a strong second half, is signed through at least 2030.

Shortstop is the lone position where the Braves aren’t set at the moment. They’ll need to upgrade their bench and have plenty of work to do on the pitching staff — both in the rotation and the bullpen — but that only makes the affordable nature of Albies’ contract all the more appealing. Atlanta’s projected payroll checks in at a hefty $214MM, assuming the club options for Chris Sale, Tyler Kinley and Pierce Johnson are exercised.

The Braves have several non-tender candidates, and cutting anyone from that group will trim next year’s total outlay and their luxury-tax ledger by a few million dollars. But the Braves have only crossed the tax threshold once during the current core group’s time together (2023), so if the aim it to again stay under that line ($244MM in 2026), they’ll need to be judicious in how they address the remaining holes on the roster.

Jack Flaherty Exercises Player Option

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Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty will not opt out of his contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll exercise a $20MM player option and head back to Detroit for a third season. The Tigers formally announced the move just a minute or two after Passan’s initial report.

Flaherty, who turned 30 in October, had an uneven season, but it’s still a mildly surprising decision to pick up the player option. It’s unlikely he’d have commanded a $20MM annual value on the open market, but a multi-year deal at a slightly lesser rate doesn’t seem far-fetched. Middle-of-the-road starters like Luis Severino ($67MM), Taijuan Walker ($72MM), Jameson Taillon ($68MM) and Eduardo Rodriguez ($80MM) have all garnered notable three- or four-year contracts at this age or older.

That said, had Flaherty turned the option down, this would’ve been the third straight season in which he was a free agent. Perhaps there’s an element of fatigue there, particularly given that he lingered in free agency until early February last time around. Turning down the player option would probably also have emboldened the Tigers to make a qualifying offer (only $2.025MM more than Flaherty’s $20MM option). The prospect of another trip to the open market, this time with a QO hanging over him, may not have been especially appealing.

Flaherty started 31 games and pitched 161 innings for manager A.J. Hinch in 2025. He was tagged for a pedestrian 4.64 ERA, though there are plenty of encouraging rate stats that suggest he’s in line for better results moving forward. The right-hander struck out a well above-average 27.6% of his opponents, was slightly better than league-average in terms of swinging-strike rate (11.3%), and sat barely north of average in walk rate (8.7%).

Flaherty’s 92.9 mph average fastball was roughly in line with the prior season’s 93.2 mph mark. He was plagued by a slightly elevated average on balls in play and a lower-than-usual strand rate; metrics like FIP (3.85) and SIERA (3.67) felt that Flaherty was far better than his more rudimentary earned run average would suggest. The 18.9-point differential between his strikeout and walk percentages ranked 16th among the 53 MLB pitchers who tossed at least 160 innings, sandwiching him right between Freddy Peralta and Kevin Gausman.

The return of Flaherty provides some additional stability in Detroit’s rotation. Tarik Skubal will of course lead the staff again, taking aim at what would be a third consecutive Cy Young win (as he’s all but certain to win his second straight award in a couple weeks). He and Flaherty will be joined by Casey Mize and Reese Olson, health permitting, but the final spot is more up in the air. Rookie Troy Melton looked sharp down the stretch but hasn’t pitched a full season in the majors yet. Top prospect Jackson Jobe will miss most of next year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid-June. Keider Montero, Sawyer Gipson-Long and Ty Madden join Melton as an option for that last spot, but no one in that group brings much certainty to the table.

If the Tigers were hoping to see Flaherty decline and sign elsewhere, thus sparing $20MM from the books and allowing them to pursue a bigger fish in free agency, they still ought to be able to line up on a trade. Flaherty’s $20MM might feel a bit steep, but the going rate for innings continues to escalate. The Tigers themselves gave Alex Cobb $15MM last winter after a season in which he made just three starts with Cleveland. Aging veterans Charlie Morton ($15MM), Justin Verlander ($15MM) and Max Scherzer ($15.5MM) were all paid similarly — Verlander coming off a 5.48 ERA in 90 1/3 innings as he headed into his age-42 season.

Flaherty’s $20MM salary isn’t a raucous bargain but also isn’t out of line with modern-day contractual norms — particularly if one believes his true talent level lay closer to his fielding-independent metrics than his earned run average. Even with Flaherty now under contract, the Tigers’ projected payroll, per RosterResource, sits around $121.5MM. That doesn’t account for potential non-tenders or trades from a huge class of 14 arbitration-eligible players. Detroit has previously pushed payroll up to the $200MM range, albeit under the watch of now-late owner Mike Ilitch. The Tigers’ top Opening Day mark under his son, Chris Ilitch, has been last year’s $145MM number, though deadline acquisitions pushed the end-of-year figure up into the $155-160MM range.

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