Latest On Freddie Freeman’s Market
It’s been apparent since the Braves acquired and extended first baseman Matt Olson that Freddie Freeman is likely headed elsewhere in free agency, but Freeman made that all but official this afternoon when he thanked Braves fans and bid them and the organization farewell on Instagram this afternoon.
“…Thank you from the bottom of my heart,” wrote Freeman. “It has been a blast to have you cheer for me and I hope I was able to bring smiles to a lot of your homes over the years. I gave everything I had day in and day out and I hope you guys saw that as well. Although our time has come to an end, I look forward to seeing and playing in front of you all again. When that time comes, I hope you remember all the wonderful memories we made together. I love you Braves Country! Champions Forever!”
It’s not clear whether Freeman’s message is a portent for an agreement with a new team or simply an acknowledgement that the first chapter of his storied career has drawn to a close. Several possible landing spots for the 2020 NL MVP have dried up in the past few days, as the Braves not only essentially replaced him with Olson, but the Yankees struck up a deal to bring Anthony Rizzo back to the Bronx.
Reports recently have suggested that Freeman remains of interest to the Dodgers, Red Sox, Rays and Padres, although each destination comes with its own reasons for some degree of skepticism. Freeman has reportedly sought a six-year deal that would carry him through his age-37 season, and the Dodgers tend to prefer higher annual salaries and shorter terms than that six-year target. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this week that L.A. is “believed” to have offered a four-year deal to Freeman that includes a sizable annual value.
Looking to Freeman’s other reported suitors, the Padres have spent more than a year trying to move Eric Hosmer, who still has four years and $59MM remaining on his contract. As explored more in depth here at MLBTR yesterday, it’s difficult to see that deal coming together without several other pieces falling into place first.
The Red Sox have been comfortable exceeding the luxury tax in the past, but they opted not to do so and have at pair of interesting young first base/designated hitter types already in Bobby Dalbec and prospect Tristan Casas. It’s doubtful that either would stand in the way of Boston signing a player of Freeman’s caliber, but the luxury tax concerns present a more feasible roadblock. Still, SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted this morning that the Yankees believe their archrivals’ interest in Freeman is sincere.
As for the Rays, their interest is said to be real but also comes with the most obvious hurdles of the bunch. Tampa Bay’s payroll is perennially among the lowest in the sport, and while the long-term books are exceptionally clean (as noted when first examining their reported offer), a free agent of Freeman’s caliber heading to Tampa is entirely without precedent. It was a surprise several years ago to see the Rays reel in Charlie Morton on a $30MM guarantee that spanned two seasons; Freeman could command an annual salary in that range over a longer term. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this morning that Tampa Bay has remained “aggressive” in its surprising pursuit of Freeman, but an actual deal between the two parties would still register as one of the largest free-agent surprises ever.
The lack of obvious suitors for a massive five- or six-year commitment and the recent decisions by the Braves and Yankees to move on has created a sense among some executives in the game that Freeman’s camp overplayed its hand, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets. That’ll be determined by Freeman’s ultimate contract, of course, but his path to the massive contract that once appeared to be a given looks a bit less clear now than it did when the Yankees and Braves were still in the market for his services.
Royals, Reds Swap Mike Minor For Amir Garrett
The Royals have traded left-handed starter Mike Minor and cash to the Reds in exchange for left-handed reliever Amir Garrett, per announcements from both teams.
Minor, 34, is headed into the second season of a two-year, $18MM contract originally signed with Kansas City. He’s due $10MM this season, plus a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2023 season. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Royals are covering that $1MM buyout. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that Kansas City is also covering $500K of Minor’s salary. That leaves the Reds on the hook for about $7.3MM in additional salary commitments, when factoring in the projected $2.2MM (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) that would’ve gone to the arbitration-eligible Garrett.
It’s frankly bizarre to see Cincinnati take on cash to acquire a struggling veteran starter, considering they commenced their offseason by placing a highly productive veteran starter, Wade Miley, on outright waivers — content to just give him away in order to save the same $10MM salary that is owed to Minor. The move to add Minor, who has an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his past two seasons, is a clear downgrade over simply keeping Miley. One can also imagine that if the goal was to add a veteran to the staff after trading Sonny Gray, there were options in free agency at a similar or even lesser price point.
Minor has been a durable source of innings over the past four years, starting at least 28 games in each full season and another 11 during the shortened 2020 campaign. However, he posted a 5.05 ERA in Kansas City through last year’s 158 1/3 innings, punching out 22.3% of his opponents against a strong 6.1% walk rate. Metrics like FIP (4.29) and SIERA (4.20) feel Minor’s strikeout and walk rates ought to have yielded a better ERA, but it’s quite a bet for him to bounce back when factoring in how the change of scenery could adversely impact Minor. As a fly-ball pitcher whose biggest Achilles heel during that time has been a susceptibility to home runs (1.43 HR/9 since 2018), the move to Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park seems like a poor fit (particularly at a time when the National League is adding the designated hitter).
Perhaps the Reds plan to explore additional trade scenarios surrounding Minor. Perhaps they believe pitching coach Derek Johnson, who coached Minor at Vanderbilt more than a decade ago, can help Minor return to form. Whatever the motivation behind the trade, it’s strange to see Cincinnati going out of its way to add salary after so aggressively finding ways to cut payroll over the past 18 months. In a vacuum, the trade for Minor is a sensible enough bet on a rebound for a prominent veteran — but in the context of the Reds’ recent string of transactions, it’s just rather puzzling.
As for the Royals, they’ll add a hard-throwing lefty with big bat-missing ability who has never quite put things together for a prolonged run of success. The 29-year-old Garrett averages 95 mph on his heater and has fanned just under 30% of his opponents dating back to 2018, but he’s also susceptible to walks (12.1%) and home runs (1.36 HR/9). Home runs have been a particular issue for Garrett over the past two seasons, although a move out of Cincinnati and into the spacious Kauffman Stadium could help him cut back on those long balls.
Garrett is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, so if the new environs can finally coax some consistency from him, he could be a vital piece of the Royals’ relief corps. Beyond the strikeouts and velocity, Garrett ranks 14th among all qualified relievers with a 15.7% swinging-strike rate since 2019, so the potential for a breakout is there. He’ll join a Kansas City bullpen that is increasingly deep in hard-throwing arms who can miss bats, pairing with righties like Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow as well as southpaw Jake Brentz.
Braves Sign Alex Dickerson
The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve signed free-agent outfielder Alex Dickerson to a non-guaranteed Major League deal that comes with a $1MM base salary. Dickerson, a client of Moye Sports Associates, will be placed on the 40-man roster for now and report to Major League Spring Training.
After playing 95 games with the Padres over 2015 and 2016, a few injuries cost him two whole seasons, with a bulging disk and a torn UCL preventing him from playing at all in 2017 or 2018. Dickerson was able to have a nice comeback season in 2019, however, splitting his time between the Padres and Giants. He got into 68 games, making 190 plate appearances, hitting .276/.332/.489, wRC+ of 112.
2020 was a tremendous breakout for the outfielder, as he hit 10 home runs in the pandemic-shortened season, finishing the campaign with a line of .298/.371/.576, wRC+ of 151. Unfortunately, injuries struck yet again in 2021, limiting him to 111 games and a line of .233/.304/.420, wRC+ of 97. The Giants designated him for assignment in November to make room on the roster for Anthony DeSclafani.
For Atlanta, this is a low-risk gamble on a player who has shown flashes of brilliance when healthy. The $1MM is barely above the league minimum salary, which is now $700K in the new CBA. It’s also not guaranteed, meaning that the club wouldn’t be on the hook if Dickerson’s past injury issues linger into this year. As it’s a non-guaranteed deal, Dickerson would earn a lesser rate if he’s in the minors instead of with the big league team. He could theoretically reject an optional assignment given that he has more than five years of MLB service time, but it seems likely he signed such a deal with an awareness that spending some time in Triple-A could be a possibility.
For the Braves, their incredible run to the World Series last year involved acquiring a number of outfielders that were set to reach free agency at the end of the year: Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario. They have since re-signed Rosario, who will join Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, Guillermo Heredia, Orlando Arcia, Travis Demeritte and Drew Waters in the outfield mix. Ronald Acuna Jr. is still rehabbing from his torn ACL and is hoping to return by May. That somewhat crowded picture could be helped by this year’s implementation of the designated hitter for National League teams. Dickerson’s never really earned favorable ratings for his defense, making him a good fit for some time in the DH slot, especially considering his injury history.
Dodgers, Shane Greene Agree To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran reliever Shane Greene, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Greene returns to Chavez Ravine after inking a Major League contract with the Dodgers last August, and appearing in nine games with the Dodgers down the stretch.
That brief stint in L.A. saw Greene post a 4.05 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, and an ungainly 16.7% walk rate over 6 2/3 innings of work. While nothing spectacular, it was still a big step up from Greene’s previous work last season — 17 innings out of the Braves bullpen that saw the right-hander struggle to an 8.47 ERA.
It was an unusual season overall for Greene, as his trip through free agency didn’t result in a deal of any kind until Atlanta signed him to a big league deal in May. The lack of a proper Spring Training undoubtedly had some impact on Greene’s performance, and while this season’s abbreviated spring camps are also not exactly normal, Greene will at least get some type of regular prep time as he tries to win a job in the Los Angeles bullpen.
Greene has been a little inconsistent since becoming a full-time reliever in 2017, yet he has posted some very strong numbers when at his best. The right-hander enjoyed very solid seasons in 2017 and 2019 while pitching with the Tigers (serving as Detroit’s closer and reaching the All-Star Game in 2019) and delivered another good year over 27 2/3 frames with Atlanta in the shortened 2020 season. However, Greene has never been a big strikeout pitcher even in his prime, and since the advanced metrics take a dimmer view of his performance than his real-world numbers, it could explain why Greene languished for so long on the open market last offseason.
If Greene can return to his old form, the Dodgers may have found a reliable and durable bullpen arm at a relative bargain price. L.A. has assembled quite a collection of notable relievers in camp on minors deals, as Greene joins a list that includes Reyes Moronta, Carson Fulmer, Yency Almonte, Bobby Wahl, and Sam Gaviglio.
Braves Re-Sign Eddie Rosario
The Braves have re-signed free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario to a two-year, $18MM contract with a club option for the 2024 season, the team announced. Rosario will earn $9MM in each of the next two seasons. The Braves didn’t announce the value of the 2024 option, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that it’s also at $9MM, with no buyout. Rosario is represented by Roc Nation Sports.
Rosario, 30, landed with the Braves in a midseason salary dump after a generally unproductive start to the season in Cleveland. The longtime Twins left fielder had signed a one-year, $8MM there after being non-tendered by Minnesota but hit just .254/.296/.389 in 306 plate appearances before landing on the injured list due to an abdominal strain. The Braves acquired Rosario knowing he’d need some additional time to mend, but it’s doubtful even their most bullish projections could’ve foreseen what laid ahead.
Activated from the 10-day IL on Aug. 27, Rosario exploded with a .271/.330/.573 showing in 96 plate appearances down the stretch in Atlanta. He seven home runs, four doubles and a pair of triples during that hot streak — and that production alone would’ve made the acquisition well worth it. Rosario, however, carried that production into the postseason — at least for the National League Championship Series.
After a mostly nondescript three games in the NLDS, Rosario again stole the spotlight with a blistering 14-for-25 effort that included three home runs, a double, a triple and nine runs driven in. Following that showing, Rosario’s crowning as NLCS MVP was a foregone conclusion. His production dried up during the World Series (5-for-22), but Rosario’s overall production with the Braves and those postseason heroics resulted in a solid payday and what figures to be an everyday role in Atlanta.
The up-and-down nature of Rosario’s 2021 season wasn’t exactly anomalous in nature. He’s been prone to torrid hot streaks and pronounced cold streaks throughout his big league career, thanks in part to a hyperaggressive approach at the plate. Rosario has strong bat-to-ball skills, evidenced by a strikeout rate of just 14.7% across the past three seasons. However, he’s also walked in fewer than five percent of his big league plate appearances, and over the past three seasons he has the game’s 13th-highest swing percentage (55.8%) and 11th-highest chase percentage (43%). Rosario excels at making contact even on those pitches off the plate, but in chasing so frequently, he gives up some opportunities to capitalize on his above-average power by driving better pitches.
Defensively, Rosario is more of a mixed bag. He’s played all over the outfield but is best suited in the corners, where he has ample arm strength that led to some gaudy assist totals, particularly early in his tenure with the Twins. Defensive metrics have soured on his work in recent seasons, but there’s an immense gulf between the most bullish and most bearish measures of evaluation. Defensive Runs Saved, for instance, credits Rosario with a +2 mark in 2021 — but Statcast’s Outs Above Average grades him at -17, which is the worst mark among all Major League outfielders. Year-to-year looks at defensive metrics can offer great fluctuation, but taken in larger samples, each of DRS, UZR and OAA give him negative grades dating back to 2017.
None of that’s to say Rosario is a poor investment for the Braves, particularly at these terms. His approach at the plate has worked for him, as evidenced by a solid .275/.309/.473 batting line (105 wRC+) and 133 home runs through 3242 career plate appearances. He’s posted single-season home run totals of 27 (2017) and 32 (2019) in the past, so he has the potential to be a prominent source of power in the Braves’ lineup over the next couple seasons. His overall offensive production is curbed a bit by the frequent swings and lack of walks, but Rosario has been a generally above-average hitter who’ll pair with Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna and, once healthy, Ronald Acuna Jr. in what should be a productive outfield/designated hitter carousel in Atlanta.
In order to clear space on the 40-man roster, Atlanta placed starter Mike Soroka on the 60-day injured list. Soroka underwent a second Achilles surgery last June that was expected to sideline him into July, so it’s no surprise he won’t be ready for at least the first two months of the season.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Undergoes Wrist Surgery
March 16: Tatis is undergoing surgery this morning, tweets Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune.
March 14, 2:16pm: It’s not clear precisely when Tatis suffered his injury, but he admitted today when speaking with reporters (including Jesse Rogers of ESPN) that he’d fallen off his motorcycle multiple times throughout the winter. One accident described as minor had been reported in early December; Tatis called its resultant injuries “minor scrapes,” but Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that some people “close to the situation” are hypothesizing he suffered his wrist fracture at that point. As Bob Nightengale of USA Today points out, team officials were barred from speaking with or examining Tatis until last Thursday on account of the lockout.
11:29am: Tatis has a fracture in the scaphoid bone of his left wrist, tweets Cassavell. It’s possible the injury was sustained earlier in the winter (though that remains unclear), but it flared up decisively while swinging a bat recently.
11:05am: Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered a broken wrist that could require surgery, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller announced to reporters this morning (Twitter link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell). Surgery is a possibility for Tatis, who is expected to miss up to three months recovering from the injury.
It’s a brutal blow to the Padres, who’ll now go as much as half the season without one of the game’s brightest young stars. Tatis missed time last season with a recurring subluxation of his shoulder but nevertheless hit .282/.364/.611 with 42 home runs in just 130 games. Tatis avoided surgery for that particular ailment but will now miss substantial time with a new malady.
San Diego has plenty of infield depth, though there’s no replacing a player of Tatis’ caliber. His injury could create a more stable opportunity for former KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, who struggled in a part-time role with the Friars last year after signing a four-year, $28MM contract. Alternate options on the roster include third baseman Manny Machado, second baseman Jake Cronenworth and utilityman Jurickson Profar — all of whom have experience at shortstop in the big leagues. Twenty-one-year-old CJ Abrams is among the top prospects in all of baseball, but he’s not yet on the 40-man roster and has yet to play above Double-A. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, though, so he’ll get a chance to force the team’s hand.
Of course, it at least bears mention that there are a few prominent shortstops yet unsigned on the market. Both Carlos Correa and Trevor Story have been in search of new homes this winter, and were either amenable to a one-year deal that’d allow them to reenter the market next winter, the Friars could make for a previously unexpected fit. There’d be an eventual logjam, but Tatis did spend some time in the outfield last year.
That said, a Story or Correa match is an extreme long shot for multiple reasons. Both are seeking long-term arrangements, and the Padres have been looking to shed payroll as they explore trade scenarios involving Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers. Signing either free agent would require not only forfeiting a draft pick but also forking over a sizable salary. Preller has taught us time and again to never expressly rule the Padres out on virtually any pie-in-the-sky scenario, but it’s pretty difficult to imagine either Story or Correa popping up in Padres camp to step in for Tatis.
Tatis is entering the second season of a precedent-shattering 14-year, $340MM contract extension. He’s slated to earn $5MM this season and will see his salaries rise to $7MM in 2023, $11MM in 2024, $20MM in 2025-26, $25MM in 2027-28 and $36MM annually from 2029-36.
D-backs, Keone Kela Agree To Minor League Deal
The D-backs have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran righty Keone Kela, reports Fansided’s Robert Murray. Kela had Tommy John surgery mid-May in 2021, so he won’t be ready for the beginning of the season but will give Arizona a potential high-end reliever to join the bullpen at some point midseason.
The 28-year-old (29 next month) has seven seasons of MLB experience under his belt, spending time with the Rangers, Pirates and Padres. From 2015 to 2019, he appeared in 228 games, throwing 214 2/3 innings, recording a 3.23 ERA, along with an excellent 30.1% strikeout rate and slightly-high 9.4% walk rate.
Unfortunately, health issues have slowed him down since then. In 2020, a positive COVID-test and forearm tightness limited him to just two innings on the season. Last year, he logged 10 2/3 frames before requiring Tommy John. As part of his contract with the Padres, the surgery meant that they were allowed to retain Kela for 2022 via a club option valued at $800K. However, they decided not to pick that up, presumably not confident that Kela could make it back to the mound in time for it to be worth their while. Tommy John surgery typically comes with a recovery time of 12 to 18 months for pitchers, meaning that Kela could be ready to go a few months into the season but also could miss the entire year.
For the Diamondbacks, they are coming off a miserable 52-110 campaign that saw them even with the Orioles for worst record in the majors. Despite that, they don’t seem interested in stripping down the roster, instead opting for making some upgrades and hoping for better results this year. In the bullpen, they’ve already added Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, who are likely to take the high leverage spots. If Kela can come back from his surgery and perform like he did from 2015 to 2019, he’ll give the club yet another experienced veteran to help out their relief corps. Should the team struggle to contend again, these relievers could all make for intriguing trade chips at the deadline.
Athletics Trade Matt Chapman To Blue Jays
Oakland’s rapid sell-off and the Blue Jays’ aggressive offseason both continued Wednesday, as the A’s announced that third baseman Matt Chapman has been traded to Toronto in exchange for right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-hander Zach Logue and left-hander Kirby Snead.
The acquisition of Chapman will give the Blue Jays not only one of the best defensive third basemen in the game but one of the top defensive players in baseball at any position. Since Chapman’s 2017 Major League debut, his 88 Defensive Runs Saved and his 47.3 Ultimate Zone rating both trail only Mookie Betts and Andrelton Simmons among all big leaguers. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric largely agrees, ranking him tenth among all big league players, regardless of position, since 2017. Indeed, Chapman has twice been recognized as the league’s best all-around defender by being named the league’s Platinum Glove winner.
Of course, Chapman is far from a glove-only player. From 2018-19, he was a legitimate MVP candidate on the strength of his combined offensive and defensive prowess. The former No. 25 overall draft pick posted a .263/.348/.507 slash with 60 home runs while playing his home games at the cavernous Oakland Coliseum during those two seasons, finishing Top 7 in American League MVP voting on both occasions.
Chapman’s offensive production has fallen sharply over the past two seasons, due in no small part to a major hip injury in 2020 that he tried to play through before succumbing to surgery. That procedure both repaired a labrum tear and “cleaned up” the head of his right femur bone. Even as his production has dipped, Chapman has still hit for power (37 home runs, .216 ISO) and drawn plenty of walks (11.4%), but his strikeout rate has spiked from 22.8% in 2018-19 all the way to 33.1% in 2020-21. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted a combined .215/.206/.431 batting line.
The Jays are surely betting that Chapman will bounce back to an extent at the plate now that he’ll be 18 months removed from that September 2020 surgery. However, even if he doesn’t return to his MVP-caliber levels from 2018-19, the new three-true-outcomes version of Chapman was still worth 3.5 wins above replacement per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs last season. He’s a pronounced upgrade for a Jays team hoping to make a deep postseason run on the strength of a dominant offense and a rotation that has improved by leaps and bounds in recent seasons.
Chapman’s salary has not yet been settled, as he’s arbitration-eligible and did not settle on a price point with the A’s prior to the lockout. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM this coming season and will be owed one more raise for the 2023 campaign before reaching free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. While Jays fans may be looking to Matt Olson‘s swift extension following a trade from Oakland to his hometown Braves, it should be pointed out that as a client of the Boras Corporation, Chapman seems less likely to follow that same trajectory. Still, he’ll be locked in as the Toronto third baseman for at least the next two seasons.
Adding Chapman firmly pushes Cavan Biggio to second base, where he’s better suited to play from a defensive standpoint. Chapman’s range will also play nicely alongside Bo Bichette, who has drawn mixed reviews for his glovework at shortstop. Statcast notes that Bichette is much stronger on balls hit to his left side than those hit to his right, so getting some extra range out of their third baseman will be particularly helpful.
It’s worth pointing out that Chapman isn’t an ideal fit for a Toronto lineup that skews almost entirely right-handed. He’d give them eight pure right-handed hitters in the starting lineup, with Biggio the lone lefty. That right-handed lean was part of the reason that a potential Freddie Freeman fit has seemed so tantalizing for the Jays. This acquisition technically doesn’t rule out a Freeman signing, but it does quash any speculation of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moving back to third base. That’s in the team’s best interest anyhow, as Guerrero was never a strong defensive option at the hot corner. A theoretical Freeman addition would push Guerrero into a primary designated hitter role earlier in his career than the Jays might’ve liked, but the sheer offensive firepower of that lineup would still make it worth considering. Toronto had been linked to Kyle Schwarber, but he’s now Philadelphia-bound after agreeing to a four-year deal with the Phillies.
Turning the Oakland’s return, they’ll acquire one high-end but far-off pitching prospect, Hoglund, and a trio of largely MLB-ready pieces in Smith, Logue and Snead. Hoglund was the No. 19 overall draft pick in 2021 and might well have gone in the Top 10 selections had he not required Tommy John surgery during last year’s NCAA season. The former Ole Miss ace was largely regarded as one of the top college arms in the draft after pitching to a 2.41 ERA with a sky-high 39% strikeout rate against a strong 6.1% walk rate.
Baseball America ranked him fifth among Toronto farmhands, while FanGraphs pegged him No. 3 in the Toronto system. Much of Hoglund’s future depends on how he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he’d been described as an advanced college arm with mid-rotation upside and a potential quick path to the big leagues.
Smith, 25, ought to step right into the Athletics’ Opening Day lineup. He went just 3-for-32 in a brief big league cup of coffee late in the 2021 season, but that’s overshadowed by a big .285/.370/.561 batting line in Triple-A last year. Smith, ranked seventh among Jays prospects at BA and 16th at FanGraphs, smacked 21 home runs, 27 doubles and four triples while also going 18-for-21 in stolen base attempts in that outstanding Triple-A campaign. BA ranked him as the game’s No. 91 prospect in the 2018-19 offseason, and while a poor first showing in Triple-A dropped his stock, last year’s excellent rebound restored a good bit of faith in his abilities.
The Jays played Smith primarily at shortstop during his time in Triple-A, but he also has 651 professional innings at third base and 161 innings of work at second base. Scouting reports peg him as a capable but not-elite defender at short. Given the presence of all-world defensive prospect Nick Allen in the upper tiers of the Oakland system, it seems quite possible that Smith’s eventual home with the A’s will be either third base or second base.
As for the two pitchers, Logue has a chance to be in the Oakland rotation before long. The 25-year-old (26 in April) was Toronto’s ninth-round pick in 2017 and has greatly elevated his status, thanks in part to a nice showing between Double-A and Triple-A this past season. In 125 innings between the two levels, Logue notched a 3.67 ERA with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate, an even better 5.3% walk rate and a 38% ground-ball rate. That he’s a fly-ball pitcher moving to Oakland as opposed to Toronto’s more hitter-friendly Rogers Centre can only help his chances of becoming a quality big league contributor.
Logue ranked 24th among Jays prospects at BA, where he was labeled one of the system’s “most improved” players in 2021 and touted as a potential back-end starter. FanGraphs tabbed him 10th in the Toronto system, praising his plus changeup, plus command and above-average cutter. Scouting reports generally don’t peg Logue as more than a fourth starter, but if he’s able to realize that potential, there’s quite a bit of value in six-plus seasons of a No. 4 starter.
Snead, 27, gives the A’s an MLB-ready bullpen piece who made his big league debut late in the ’21 season. Snead allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and a pair of walks with seven strikeouts through his first 7 2/3 big league innings last year. That marked the continuation of an excellent season in Triple-A, where he’d notched a 1.58 ERA with a huge 36.1% strikeout rate, a 10.1% walk rate and a massive 63.3% ground-ball rate.
Unlike many lefties, Snead has no issues containing right-handed opponents in 2021. While he was still better against left-handers, who posted an awful .141/.222/.203 against him (Majors and Triple-A combined), right-handers were similarly futile. Even when batters held the platoon advantage, they mustered only a .186/.278/.245 output against Snead. He’s been a pure reliever throughout his professional career, but that dominance against both righties and lefties mitigates any specialist concerns and gives him the chance to be a multi-inning option. Snead has pitched 236 1/3 innings through 186 minor league appearances, so he’s no stranger to working more than an inning at a time.
The trade of an All-Star third baseman to the Blue Jays for a four-player package consisting of three largely MLB-ready pieces and one further-off but high-upside prospect will do little to quell comparisons to the 2014 Josh Donaldson blockbuster. That trade, which brought Franklin Barreto, Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin to Oakland, didn’t pan out as the front office hoped, but today’s swap is a separate deal, eerie similarities notwithstanding. The A’s have added a notable influx of talent to their system, and the Chapman return in particular features the largest crop of MLB-ready talent they’ve picked up thus far in their offseason dealings.
The Chapman trade marks the latest step in the dismantling of a roster that was largely foreseeable but is nevertheless disheartening for the fanbase. Chapman follows fan favorites Olson and Chris Bassitt out the door, and it’s unlikely Oakland will stop its roster purge with those three. Lefty Sean Manaea, a free agent at season’s end, seems all but certain to be traded. Right-hander Frankie Montas, center fielder Ramon Laureano and reliever Lou Trivino all have multiple seasons of club control remaining but still could change hands. Montas, in particular, has been a target for pitching-hungry clubs. Looking ahead, it’s not really a question of whether any of those players will be traded — but rather one of who’ll be the next to go.
Former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga first reported on Instagram that a trade agreement was in place. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported Oakland’s return for Chapman (Twitter link).
Tigers Re-Sign Wily Peralta
The Tigers have brought right-hander Wily Peralta back to the organization on a minor league contract, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports (via Twitter). He’ll compete for a roster spot in big league camp after a solid showing in Detroit last year. Peralta would earn a $2.5MM base salary if he makes the roster, per Petzold, with the opportunity to pick up another $500K worth of incentives.
Peralta, 32, had a strong return to the Majors last season after not pitching in the Majors in 2020 and logging a 5.80 ERA in 40 innings with Kansas City in 2019. The former Brewers hurler went from minor league signee to a regular member in the Detroit rotation, making 18 starts (plus one relief appearance) and pitching to a 3.07 ERA in 93 2/3 innings. The underlying metrics weren’t nearly as rosy, as Peralta posted a just a 14.4% strikeout rate against a 9.5% walk rate. He kept more than half his batted balls on the ground, but metrics like FIP (4.94) and SIERA (5.27) don’t paint an especially optimistic portrait.
That’s likely a large reason that, in spite of a glowing 2021 ERA, Peralta had to settle for a nonguaranteed contract in free agency. That said, while Peralta isn’t promised a roster spot, he ought to have a decent chance at making the roster after making a good impression on the organization last year.
The Tigers’ Opening Day rotation figures to included Eduardo Rodriguez, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, but things are less certain thereafter. Righty Matt Manning, a longtime top prospect, was hit hard in his MLB debut last year but will still have a chance to win a spot. Prospects Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo could eventually be options, but both are returning from Tommy John surgery.
It’s quite possible that the Tigers will add another veteran starter to join the ranks, thus pushing Peralta and Manning into a competition for the fifth spot on the staff. For the time being, Peralta seemingly has a better chance at cracking the roster than your average non-roster player in Spring Training.
Chris Sale Has Stress Fracture In Rib Cage, Won’t Be Ready For Opening Day
Red Sox ace Chris Sale has a stress fracture in his right rib cage and will not be ready for Opening Day, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom announced to reporters today (Twitter links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). It will be “weeks, not days” before Sale is even cleared to pick up a ball and begin any form of throwing, Bloom adds. Sale didn’t suggest a timeline other than stating that bones typically take six to eight weeks to heal. Sale suffered the injury during the lockout during a live batting practice he was streaming on Instagram, but was prohibited from communicating it to the Red Sox until the new collective bargaining agreement was reached March 10.
Sale joined the Red Sox in a December 2016 trade and is in the third year of a five-year, $145MM extension. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020, ultimately leading to a gap of almost exactly two years between MLB mound appearances. In his nine starts in late 2021, Sale averaged 82 pitches per outing. Sale’s work fell short of his Cy Young-caliber peak, which is to be expected at age 32 and after a long layoff, but he still managed a healthy 28.4 K% and 6.6 BB% in his 42 1/3 innings. Two of Sale’s three postseason starts were particularly brief, but he was able to make a strong 87-pitch effort in Game 5 of the NLCS against the Astros.
The prospect of Sale missing potentially a couple months of the 2022 season is a blow to the Red Sox. Still, the club did sign free agents Michael Wacha and Rich Hill before the lockout, and has already been stretching out Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock this spring. Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta are also set for the team’s rotation.