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Free Agent Profile: Ricky Nolasco
As the team most likely to take on the $5.5MM remaining on Ricky Nolasco's contract, the Dodgers were seen as the trade market frontrunners leading up to their July 6th acquisition of the pitcher from the Marlins. The Marlins failed to receive top-tier prospects, and even threw in international pool money for the Dodgers. None of that came as a big surprise, not just because the Marlins like to save money, but because as ESPN's Keith Law put it, Nolasco was a "durable fourth starter type" who had a 3.85 ERA at the time.
Free agency has a large "what have you done for me lately" element, and it seems that Nolasco's 2.07 ERA in 74 innings with the Dodgers has changed the conversation about him from salary dump to coveted potential top ten free agent.
Strengths/Pros
Nolasco won't turn 31 until December. Comparable free agents like Ervin Santana and Scott Feldman are the same age, and these pitchers are young enough to justify a three-year deal.
One of Nolasco's biggest strengths is avoiding the free pass. Since 2011, he's walked only 2.05 batters per nine innings, which ranks 14th among starting pitchers with at least 400 innings. Five free agent starters have done better, the youngest of whom is Dan Haren, who turns 33 next week. On a related note, Nolasco has authored four seasons in his career with a K/BB ratio above 3.5, including this one. Only three free agent starters have a better K/BB ratio than Nolasco this year.
Nolasco also scores points for durability, as he'll have made at least 31 regular season starts in each of the last three seasons. Only four other free agent starters will be able to make the same claim. Says agent Matt Sosnick, "It's been my experience that guys get paid for being healthy consistently every year."
You may not buy into it, but Sosnick will also make the claim that finally getting out of Miami rejuvenated his client's career. Nolasco's 2.07 ERA since July 6th ranks fifth in all of baseball, putting him in company with teammates Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw and former teammate Jose Fernandez (Jarred Cosart sneaks in there as well). Sosnick adds, "When he pitches at home in front of his family in L.A., he's basically unhittable."
One key advantage Nolasco has to a comparable free agent starter like Santana is that Nolasco is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having been traded midseason. In December 2012, after Nolasco became the Marlins' highest-paid player following a series of trades, Sosnick told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, "If he had his druthers, he would pitch for somebody other than the Marlins in 2013 and beyond." Opening the season with the Marlins, however, ultimately gave Nolasco's free agent value a boost, as he doesn't have to worry about having draft pick compensation attached.
Weaknesses/Cons
There is a good case to be made that Nolasco is simply a 3.80 ERA type who had a nice 12-start run. My ERA estimator of choice, SIERA, has him at 3.71 this year, as opposed to his actual 3.14 mark. Nolasco has allowed 8.2 hits per nine innings in 2013, after allowing 10.4 in 2011-12. Limiting hits isn't a skill if the pitcher can't do it year in and year out, despite Sosnick's "unhittable" comment.
Nolasco's strikeout rate this year is a workable 7.3 per nine innings, but it was 6.2 per nine from 2011-12. He's currently sporting what would be the best home run rate of his career (0.77 per nine innings), but it's owed more to only 8.8% of his flyballs leaving the yard, rather than to a more reliable higher groundball rate. Nolasco is a flyball pitcher, and moving forward should be expected to give up more home runs and hits perhaps with a lower strikeout rate.
As far as the "getting out of Miami" boost to Nolasco's numbers, his groundball rate is up a tick, and he's in front of a better defense. Still, the best bet is to pay for the innings and a 3.80 ERA.
Personal
Nolasco grew up rooting for the Dodgers in Rialto, California, and described the trade as a "dream come true" in a statement. Nolasco, whose full name is Carlos Enrique, is close with his brother Dave, a former Brewers minor league pitcher. During the offseason, Ricky can be found in the desert almost every weekend, camping with friends and driving sand rail dune buggies.
Market
Nolasco's statement upon his trade to the Dodgers also included the line, "I couldn't be more excited to play in front of my family and friends in Dodger Stadium during the season, and hopefully for many more seasons to come." In other words, "I'm very interested in a contract extension, by the way." The most likely scenario has to be a contract extension with the Dodgers before Nolasco hits the open market. Nolasco has pitched well for the Dodgers and wants to stay, and he's got an extension-friendly agent in Sosnick. Nolasco's apparent eagerness to pitch for the Dodgers may reduce his leverage, but he has already banked about $34MM in his career, mostly from a 2010 extension with the Marlins totaling $27MM. He definitely came out several million ahead on that deal, as the Marlins might have eventually non-tendered him otherwise. Already having a large measure of financial security restores some of Nolasco's leverage.
If the Dodgers and Nolasco can't find common ground, perhaps he'd first turn to other California teams like the Angels and Giants. American League teams, however, could be wary of Nolasco, as he's an NL lifer. The Phillies and Mets may be on the lookout for starting pitching, as well as the Indians if the AL isn't an issue. The Giants, Rockies, Rangers, Padres, and Orioles had trade interest in Nolasco during the summer.
Expected Contract
An agent recently told me he focuses much more on years than average annual value, because teams and agents generally know the likely AAV range before they even begin negotiating. Nolasco should have no problem finding three years; the big question is whether the Dodgers or another team will offer four. Sosnick will probably begin there, explaining why his client is on par with Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle, and one of the best in a weak market. Jackson, Buehrle, and Nolasco are all durable 200 inning types, but Jackson hit the market at 29 and brought the allure of a 93-94 mile per hour fastball. Buehrle was two years older than Nolasco, but also had better career numbers. Plus, Buehrle's four-year, $58MM contract was something of a fluke — the Marlins were reportedly the only team offering the fourth year, as they were in the midst of a new ballpark spending spree. Then again, it only takes one team to guarantee that fourth year, making the Jackson contract Nolasco's likely ceiling.
An innings guy these days will probably require an AAV in the $10-13MM range. Ultimately I believe Nolasco will sign a three-year, $36MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Top 34 Free Agent Starting Pitchers
Sometimes, there's just not a $100MM free agent pitcher out there. C.J. Wilson benefited from a weak free agent starting pitching class after the 2011 season, nabbing $77.5MM to lead the group. In the upcoming offseason, the top end of the starting pitcher segment is similarly uninspiring. Here are my early rankings, which are subject to change. I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comment section or on Twitter.
- Matt Garza – In terms of pure free agent starters, I think Garza will receive the largest contract this offseason. He's ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason, which boosts his value. He may have quieted health concerns by making all of his starts since his May 21st big league season debut and averaging nearly seven innings per start.
- Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka, a righty with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, is not technically a free agent but belongs here since he can be obtained by bidding the most (assuming he is posted). I don't want to give too much credit to the unknown, but there are some who would take Tanaka over Garza, especially since Tanaka will pitch next year at age 25.
- Ervin Santana – A quality arm whose stock will be damaged by a qualifying offer, if he turns one down and reaches the open market.
- Hiroki Kuroda – He'll play next season at age 39, but in feedback on early drafts of this list, most thought he should be this high.
- A.J. Burnett – Burnett said in March he wouldn't want to play anywhere but Pittsburgh, and I imagine the team's success this year only solidifies that stance.
- Tim Lincecum – I had Lincecum ranked better in earlier versions of the list, as a case can be made he's at least equal to Santana, if you're willing to look past ERA. Like Santana, a qualifying offer could suppress his market.
- Ricky Nolasco – I'd want to pay Nolasco like a 4.00 ERA guy, despite a 2.07 mark since joining the Dodgers in a July 6th trade. He doesn't have to worry about a qualifying offer, and could sign a new deal with the Dodgers during the exclusive signing period.
- Bronson Arroyo – He's not flashy, and he'll pitch at 37 next year, but he supplies innings and avoids the free pass. Arroyo spoke recently about wanting a multiyear deal, but turning down a qualifying offer from the Reds could put him in a bind on the market. I don't expect the Reds to chance it.
- Dan Haren – Haren will likely avoid a qualifying offer from the Nationals, as they won't want to risk giving him a raise on this year's $13MM. Despite a 5.23 ERA, Haren's K/BB ratio remains sparkling, and I still think there's hope for a sub-4.00 ERA given a few more groundballs and BABIP and HR/flyball swinging back his way.
- Scott Feldman – Ineligible for a qualifying offer, Feldman is in line for a multiyear deal. He's re-established himself as a solid mid-rotation arm, and he'll pitch at 31 next year.
- Paul Maholm – Maholm started his season with 20 1/3 scoreless innings, after which he's posted a 5.09 ERA in 120 1/3 frames. He also missed a month with a wrist contusion, and may have to settle for another one-year deal.
- Roberto Hernandez – I like Hernandez more than most. Though he hasn't done it since 2010, I see the skills of a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. His combination of a decent strikeout rate and big-time groundball rate is rare, but among the flyballs he has allowed, a whopping fifth of them have left the yard.
- Scott Kazmir – There's a lot to like about Kazmir, who I originally had inside my top ten. He's still young, he's got strikeout stuff from the left side, and he's sporting the lowest walk rate of his career. But he should finish the season with around 160 innings, a total he last reached in 2007. The Indians signed Kazmir to a minor league deal in December; MLBTR's Steve Adams covered his rise and fall in a June post. I think he could find a multiyear deal.
- Ubaldo Jimenez – He has the second-best strikeout rate in this free agent class, behind Burnett. If he can push his walk rate back under four per nine innings, as it was with the Rockies, he'd be close to the front-rotation hurler the Indians thought they acquired at the 2011 trade deadline. Some feel he's among the ten best in this free agent class, and he will be able to score a multiyear deal.
- Bartolo Colon – I reluctantly pushed Colon up to 15th, as over 300 innings of 3.22 ball since 2012 can't be ignored. Colon's career, elbow, and shoulder were resurrected in an April 2010 stem cell procedure, and he was later suspended 50 games for a positive PED test in August of last year in an apparently unrelated incident. He'll pitch most of next season at 41, and is succeeding with a subpar strikeout rate.
- Josh Johnson – Johnson's final start of the year came on August 6th in Seattle, and at least that one outing was reflective of what we used to say about him: he pitches well when he's on the field. His final injury was a strained forearm that will not require surgery, but unlike years past, Johnson did not pitch well while on the field this year, with a 6.20 ERA in 16 starts. His downfall was a fluke in theory, in that his strikeout and walk rates were solid while his BABIP and HR/flyball went through the roof. A qualifying offer is unlikely — Johnson would probably accept, and that would not be a good deal for the Blue Jays.
- Phil Hughes – Hughes was demoted to the Yankees' bullpen earlier this month. He had a respectable 2.85 K/BB ratio in 26 starts, but the extreme flyballer also allowed 23 home runs. There's a 4.00 ERA pitcher in there somewhere, especially away from Yankee Stadium, where he allowed 17 of those longballs. Hughes won't turn 28 until June next year, and as the youngest free agent starter, the former phenom should be a popular one-year deal reclamation project target.
- Jason Vargas
- Chris Capuano
- Roy Halladay - The former ace had labrum and rotator cuff surgery in May, returning to make a few starts this month.
- Tim Hudson - Hudson was pitching well before his season ended in July with an ankle fracture.
- Jason Hammel
- Wandy Rodriguez
- Andy Pettitte
- Joe Saunders
- Jake Westbrook
- Ryan Vogelsong (club option)
- Edinson Volquez
- Chad Gaudin - Gaudin has been quietly solid in a dozen starts for the Giants, with a 3.53 ERA.
- Mike Pelfrey
- Shaun Marcum
- Scott Baker
- Colby Lewis
- Randy Messenger - The 32-year-old is a sleeper MLB deal candidate this offseason, with a 2.83 ERA as a starter for the Hanshin Tigers from 2011-13.
Jon Lester, Jorge De La Rosa, and James Shields were excluded from this list, under the expectation their club options will be exercised.
Free Agent Profile: Omar Infante
When you think of the ten best second basemen in the game, does the name Omar Infante spring to mind as a contender? It should. Infante, 32 in December, ranks eighth in FanGraphs wins above replacement by a second baseman for 2011-13. This year, despite fewer games played than anyone ranked above him, Infante holds the seventh spot. Among the six second basemen ranked above Infante in WAR this year, the only other free agent is Robinson Cano, who will be a consideration only for a select few ultra-rich large market teams. If you're a GM looking to add a quality veteran free agent to solidify second base and you'd prefer not to dole out a nine-figure contract, Infante is your man.
Strengths/Pros
Infante doesn't strike out much, and that generally leads to solid batting averages. He's had several seasons above .300, including this one, and hasn't hit below .271 since 2005.
Defensively, UZR/150 considers Infante a plus. Defensive runs saved from The Fielding Bible suggest he's a bit above-average with the glove as well.
Infante also offers versatility, as he can play third base, shortstop, and the outfield in a pinch.
Weaknesses/Cons
When he hits .300 or better, Infante's on-base percentage will be pretty good, as it is this year at .348. However, since he generally only draws a walk in about 4% of his plate appearances these days, he's not going to be an OBP threat if he settles back into a batting average in the .270s. Tigers manager Jim Leyland deserves credit for not confusing the ability to make contact with the ability to get on base, as he's batted Infante in the bottom third of the order more than 80% of the time this year.
Infante rates well among second basemen in slugging percentage, but that gives credit to his many singles, making it a poor choice to measure his power among his peers. Isolated power puts him 15th among 25 second base qualifiers since 2012, in a similar range as Neil Walker and Dustin Pedroia. Infante has a few double-digit home run seasons on his resume, but he's not a middle of the order hitter.
It would be unfair to suggest durability is a concern with Infante, who played in almost 150 games in each of the 2011 and '12 seasons. However, a sprained ankle suffered in July this year kept Infante out for over a month, with a few setbacks during the recovery process.
Infante's stock would be hurt significantly if he receives and turns down a qualifying offer from the Tigers, which FanGraphs' Dave Cameron recommends the team makes. Losing a potential first-round draft pick to sign Infante would severely limit his appeal, and perhaps he would be compelled to become the first player to accept a qualifying offer. In that case Infante would earn more in 2014 than he did in the previous four years combined, but would hit the open market again after the season.
Personal
Infante, his wife Yohanna, and their four-year-old son Yomar reside in Lecheria, Venezuela during the offseason. Omar and Yohanna have been married for over ten years. From what we've heard, Infante is beloved by other players and coaches and is a hard worker. He is a family man and a private person.
Market
One feasible scenario is the Tigers and Infante agreeing to a new deal before qualifying offers are due in November, or at least before the open signing period. My guess is that the Tigers ultimately would not make Infante a qualifying offer — $14MM might be twice the average annual value Infante would get on the open market. The Tigers don't have to decide now, and are probably keeping an open mind. Detroit should have strong interest in retaining him, regardless. The Yankees could be a fit for Infante if Cano signs elsewhere, while the Cubs, Orioles, Dodgers, and Royals could make sense as well. Free agent competition is light outside of Cano, as Mark Ellis, Kelly Johnson, and Brian Roberts are the top names. Any team that misses out on Cano could conceivably bid for Infante, should he reach the open market.
Expected Contract
Infante was represented by Alan Nero of Octagon for most of his career, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck, but Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports recently revealed the infielder switched to Gene Mato this year. Two years ago, Infante inked a two-year, $8MM extension with the Marlins in the final days of the 2011 season. He's improved his stock drastically since then, and this offseason probably represents his one shot at a big contract.
The most relevant contract for Infante might be Marco Scutaro's three-year, $20MM deal with the Giants signed in December last year. However, Scutaro's deal covers his age 37-39 seasons, while a three-year deal for Infante would cover his age 32-34 campaigns. Cameron referenced Martin Prado's four-year, $40MM deal as a potential comparable. That contract was not signed on the open market, and still included $33MM covering Prado's first three free agent years. While there is a sabermetric case for Infante receiving a bit more than $33MM over three years, I consider that his ceiling on the open market, as Prado is younger and a better hitter (and, incidentally, the godfather to Infante's son). My guess is that Mato will set his sights on four guaranteed years at the outset, and ultimately I peg Infante at a three-year, $25MM deal.
It should be noted that my prediction includes the assumption that Infante does not reach the open market having turned down a qualifying offer. If he receives and rejects a qualifying offer and reaches the open market, I would knock my ceiling down to Scutaro's contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Athletics Acquire Kurt Suzuki
Kurt Suzuki is headed back to Oakland. After just over a calendar year in Washington, the Nats and A's have officially announced a trade that will send Suzuki back to Oakland in exchange for Class-A right-hander Dakota Bacus. Oakland will reportedly assume about $675K of Suzuki's remaining $1.34MM salary as well. The Athletics' catching depth is currently compromised, with John Jaso on the DL for a concussion and Derek Norris suffering a broken toe suffered on Tuesday.
It's likely that Suzuki, a favorite of manager Bob Melvin, will platoon with current A's backstop Stephen Vogt. A 29-year-old Hawaii native, Suzuki was originally drafted out of Cal State-Fullerton by the A's in the second round in 2004, a few picks after Hunter Pence and Dustin Pedroia. The Red Sox, in fact, wrestled between picking Pedroia or Suzuki in that draft, wrote WEEI's Alex Speier a few years ago.
Instead, Suzuki debuted with the A's in 2007 and managed to hit 15 home runs in 2009. The following season, he signed a four-year, $16.25MM extension with Oakland, which still marks the largest contract for a catcher with between three and four years of big league service (though it has since been topped by Buster Posey and Carlos Santana, who had less than three years). Suzuki talked about the extension in-depth with B.J. Rains for MLBTR in Spring Training this year. The contract has an $8.5MM club option for 2014 that becomes guaranteed with 113 starts this year, but Oakland does not have enough games remaining for that to become possible. So, it will remain a club option, which is likely to be declined.
Suzuki is surely feeling déjà vu with this trade, having been dealt to a contender on Aug. 3 last year when the Nats acquired him for minor league catcher David Freitas. Suzuki had a nice run offensively for the Nationals last year, but he's dropped off in 2013, hitting just .222/.283/.310 with three homers. Now, he's returned to the organization that drafted him, tweeting that he's "pumped to be back and ready to go make a run at this."
Bacus, 22, was selected by the A's in the ninth round of the 2012 draft. In 121 1/3 innings for Beloit this season, he's posted a 3.56 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. At the time of the draft, Baseball America noted (subscription required) that Bacus — Indiana State's ace — led his team to a Missouri Valley Conference championship. He sits 90-92 mph with his fastball and features a slider and change-up, though his lack of swinging strikes makes him profile as a No. 4 starter.
Amanda Comak of the Washington Times was the first to report that Suzuki was headed to the A's, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Nationals would receive Bacus and roughly $675K of salary relief.
Steve Adams contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Introducing MLBTR’s DFA Tracker
MLB players are designated for assignment regularly. The transaction, often abbreviated DFA, removes the player from the team's 40-man roster, giving the club ten days to trade, release, or outright him to the minors. Players who are designated for assignment can be placed on waivers within the first seven days, and the best ones are traded or claimed and added to another team's 40-man roster.
Today we're happy to introduce a new way to monitor these players: MLBTR's DFA Tracker. The tracker, which will be updated moving forward, lists the player's name, team, date designated, and the date by which a resolution is expected. A player is assigned one of five statuses: DFA Limbo, Claimed, Outrighted, Released, or Optioned. Designated players all begin in what we like to call DFA Limbo, where they're off the 40-man roster and awaiting a resolution. All players will have their status updated from DFA Limbo to one of the other four when appropriate. Within the tracker, the player name is linked to his original MLBTR DFA post. You can search for players, filter by teams and/or status, and search within date ranges.
You can find the DFA Tracker here, and the link has also been added to the righthand sidebar under MLBTR Features. Speaking of which, check out our list of players who have cleared waivers, reverse standings, 2014 free agent list, transaction tracker, and agency database as well.
Athletics Sign Mike Zagurski
The Athletics signed lefty reliever Mike Zagurski to a minor league deal, MLBTR has learned. He has a September 1st opt-out. Zagurski, 30, opted out of his deal with the Yankees on Thursday.
Zagurski joined the Pirates on a minor league deal in January, but only made six big league appearances for them. In 47 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, he has a 2.66 ERA, 14.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 0.76 HR/9. Zagurski was originally drafted by the Phillies in the 12th round in 2005, a round which also produced Matt Joyce, Craig Stammen, and Adam Rosales.
The A's currently have two lefty relievers on their active roster in Jerry Blevins and Sean Doolittle. It's possible that rehabbing southpaw Brett Anderson will remain a starter with Bartolo Colon hitting the DL with a groin strain. Aside from Zagurski, the A's have a few lefty relief options at Triple-A in Pedro Figueroa and Hideki Okajima.
Phillies Release Laynce Nix
AUGUST 12: Nix was released by the Phillies, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link).
AUGUST 6: The Phillies have designated outfielder/first baseman Laynce Nix for assignment, activating left fielder Domonic Brown from the seven-day concussion DL.
Nix, 32, is batting .180/.228/.258 in 136 plate appearances this year. The Phillies signed Nix to a two-year, $2.5MM deal in December 2011, hoping for a powerful left-handed hitting reserve to use against right-handed pitching. Nix, older brother of Yankees infielder Jayson, was drafted in the fourth round by the Rangers in 2000. Three quality big leaguers were picked earlier in that round: David DeJesus by the Royals, Cliff Lee by the Expos, and Yadier Molina by the Cardinals.
MLBTR Seeks Mobile Website Developer
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Red Sox Sign Rafael Devers, Emmanuel DeJesus
AUG. 9: The Devers signing is now official, as the 16-year-old signed his contract today, according to Badler.
JULY 2: The Red Sox made an international splash today, signing Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers for $1.5MM according to a tweet from Dionisio Soldevila of ESPN Deportes. Devers, perhaps the best left-handed hitter on the market, was ranked third among this year's class of international prospects by Baseball America's Ben Badler, and sixth by MLB.com. The Sox also agreed in principle with Venezuelan lefty Emmanuel DeJesus on a deal worth $780K, tweets MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez.
Devers, 16, has average raw power that could become above-average, according to Badler. He needs work defensively but has an "advanced feel for hitting," writes Badler. DeJesus' stuff has some similarities to Felix Doubront, and Badler noted Boston's interest in the past. MLB.com ranked him 24th, noting that he "could end up in the bullpen one day."
The Red Sox have the seventh-largest international bonus pool at $3,179,900, according to BA. They appear to have about $900K remaining after these two signings.