Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available
5,966 people submitted entries in MLBTR’s annual free agent prediction contest! The contest leaderboard is now available.
The goal of the contest has always been to see who can do the best at predicting where MLB free agents sign – a very difficult endeavor. However, in the past I have always allowed for freebies – if a player signs during the week or so that the contest is open, you were able to change your pick to the correct team, and it would count as correct. Typically this has only been for a couple of players.
Though some people like the freebie simply to reward diligence, that’s not why I’ve done it that way in the past. Instead, I’ve left signed players in the contest because we didn’t have the technical resources to alter the leaderboard midstream. Now, we have that person, and removing the six signed (or in the case of Clayton Kershaw, close to a deal for three weeks) players from the contest was easy. Six would have been an abnormally high number of freebies, as well, so it served as a tipping point for me.
Additionally, some contest participants do not receive the confirmation email from Google Forms that allows them to modify their picks, so those people were missing out on freebies for a technical reason I was not able to solve.
I changed my mind on freebies because I think it’s better this way, and always doing something a certain way isn’t a good reason to continue. While this change is going to lower batting averages for all participants (including participating MLBTR staff!), nine prognosticators still maintain a perfect batting average after the signings of Mike Clevinger and Jose Abreu.
White Sox Showing Strong Interest In Mike Clevinger
The White Sox are showing strong interest in free agent starter Mike Clevinger, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
Clevinger, who turns 32 in less than a month, is two years removed from Tommy John surgery. He returned from the procedure this year to post a 4.33 ERA, 18.8 K%, 7.2 BB%, and 35.2% groundball rate in 114 1/3 regular season innings for the Padres. He also started a pair of playoff games, allowing seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.
The White Sox currently have a solid starting four lined up for their 2023 rotation in Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Michael Kopech, though Kopech is recovering from a pair of injuries. Clevinger could potentially fill the shoes of Johnny Cueto, himself a free agent. Cueto proved invaluable after signing a minor league deal with the Sox, posting a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 frames.
Though Clevinger’s post-Tommy John work was uninspiring, some teams may hope further distance from the surgery and/or tweaks to his repertoire can recover some of his previous form. From 2017-20, mostly pitching for Cleveland, Clevinger put up a 2.96 ERA over 489 1/3 innings, including an excellent 19 K-BB%. He was quite possibly one of the 20 best pitchers in baseball during that time.
The Padres acquired Clevinger from the Indians in a nine-player trade at the 2020 trade deadline. It’s worth noting that the White Sox were also in the mix for the pitcher they knew so well from the AL Central, though Rosenthal heard from one team official who felt they were used as a “stalking horse.” Clevinger made four starts as a new Padre, but was then scratched for what was at the time called biceps tightness and later revised to an elbow sprain. The Padres brought him back for Game 1 of the NLDS that year, but he was pulled from the start and was on the operating table the following month.
At the time of the surgery announcement, the Padres also bought out Clevinger’s final two arbitration years for a total of $11.5MM, effectively paying him that amount for what he could contribute in ’22. Though Clevinger remarked in March, “I feel healthier than I have in my entire career,” he sprained his knee shortly thereafter, leading to a May 4th season debut. He hit the IL again after three starts due to a triceps strain.
Over his first ten games, Clevinger was able to miss bats at an above average 24.7% clip. Over his last 11 starts, however, Clevinger punched out only 13.5%. Clevinger lost a bit off his fastball as the season wore on, occasionally working at 95+ in some of his earlier starts versus a few sub-93 games in the dog days of summer. Denied communication with the Padres during the lockout as well as a typical spring training, perhaps changing those variables will lead to better results for Clevinger in 2023.
With a cast of unproven hurlers vying for the fifth starting spot and Kopech recovering from knee surgery, White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz recently commented, “Obviously, we need another starter,” as reported by James Fegan of The Athletic. But as Fegan noted from the GM Meetings earlier this month, “If there’s one thing the White Sox are not touting about themselves this offseason, it’s their payroll flexibility.” For an overall view of the challenges faced by GM Rick Hahn, check out my Offseason Outlook here.
MLBTR ranked Clevinger 49th on our top 50 free agents list, predicting a one-year, $10MM deal. While we do find a two-year pact plausible for Clevinger, it’s possible he’d prefer to sign a one-year contract to rebuild value in ’23 – though he would be subject to a qualifying offer if he succeeds. A handful of starting pitchers have come off the board at this early point in the offseason, Martin Perez, Tyler Anderson, and Nick Martinez chief among them.
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Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest
The MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest is still open for entries! Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents. The deadline for entry is TONIGHT at 11pm central time. You can edit your picks until then. Further contest info:
- After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams. We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it. So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest. Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
- We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.
- If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
- After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms. In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
- We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed. We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place. We will also be giving one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office for everyone who finishes in the top 15. Winners must respond to an email within one week.
- The winners of this contest will be declared on Opening Day 2023, and any unsigned players will be excluded from the competition.
- Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total. For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct. Tim gets Aaron Judge (#1 ranking) and Noah Syndergaard (#21 ranking) for a total of 22 points. Steve gets Carlos Rodon (#6) and Jameson Taillon (#14) for a total of 20 points. Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.
If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post! Otherwise, make your picks now!
Top 50 MLB Free Agents Chat Transcript
Our Top 50 free agents list is a massive undertaking every year. This year, Steve Adams led the effort, with assistance and tons of deliberation from Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald, and me. Would you like? This morning, Steve, Anthony, and I held a live chat to give readers a chance to yell at us about our contract and/or team predictions! Click here to read the transcript!
Also, you can enter our free agent prediction contest up until Wednesday at 11pm central time.
Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent
As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA allowed for the creation of an international amateur draft. As this was something MLB was pushing for, the proposed tradeoff was the elimination of free agent compensation. The two sides reached their overall CBA in March, but included a July 25th deadline for the possible international draft/free agent compensation trade. The two sides failed to reach an agreement by that July deadline, so the qualifying offer system for free agent compensation that was agreed to 11 years ago remains in place.
The qualifying offer is set at $19.65MM this offseason, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO. Certain star free agents, including Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, are locks to receive and turn down a qualifying offer. A dozen others could easily join them.
If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres
If any of these six teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2023 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays
These 14 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. The Twins and Mariners are realistic possibilities to sign a qualified free agent, while the Orioles and a few other revenue sharing recipients may lurk as dark horses.
All Other Teams: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals
These 10 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.
What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.
Chicago White Sox Offseason Chat Transcript
On Tuesday, I published MLBTR’s White Sox Offseason Outlook. Today, I took questions from MLBTR readers about the team. Read the transcript here!
Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
Aside from a new manager, the White Sox don’t seem destined for a major shakeup after a very disappointing 2022 season.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Lance Lynn, SP: $19.5MM through 2023. Includes $18MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
- Yasmani Grandal, C: $18.25MM through 2023
- Yoan Moncada, 3B: $46MM through 2024. Includes $25MM club option ($5MM buyout) for 2025
- Liam Hendriks, RP: $29MM through 2023. Includes $15MM club option ($15MM buyout) for 2024
- Joe Kelly, RP: $10MM through 2023. Includes $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
- Kendall Graveman, RP: $16MM through 2024
- Eloy Jimenez, DH/LF: $25.5MM through 2024. Includes $16.5MM club option ($3MM buyout) for 2025 (also has club option for 2026)
- Luis Robert, CF: $39MM through 2025. Includes $20MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2026 (also has club option for 2027)
- Leury Garcia, IF/OF: $11MM through 2024
- Jake Diekman, RP: $4.5MM through 2023. Includes $4MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2024
- Aaron Bummer, RP: $10.5MM through 2024. Includes $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout) for 2025
Option Decisions
- AJ Pollock, LF/CF: $13MM player option with a $5MM buyout
- Tim Anderson, SS: $12.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout (also has club option for 2024)
- Josh Harrison, 2B: $5.625MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Total 2023 commitments: $135.47MM
Total future commitments: $249.85MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Lucas Giolito (5.080): $10.8MM
- Adam Engel (5.058): $2.3MM
- Kyle Crick (5.027): $1.5MM
- Reynaldo Lopez (5.004): $3.3MM
- Dylan Cease (3.089): $5.3MM
- Jose Ruiz (3.048): $1MM
- Michael Kopech (3.041): $2.2MM
- Danny Mendick (2.168): $1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Engel, Crick, Ruiz
Free Agents
What went wrong with the 2022 White Sox? Take your pick. Start with former manager Tony La Russa, whose storied tenures with the A’s, White Sox and Cardinals landed him in the Hall of Fame in 2014. Upon being hired by the White Sox after the 2020 season, he’d been out of the dugout for nine years. The White Sox won the AL Central under La Russa last year, but finished in second place with a .500 record in 2022. Health issues prevented La Russa from managing in the season’s final month, and he eventually announced those issues would require him to step down rather than finish out a contract that ran through 2023. Regarding the disappointing ’22 season, La Russa explained in a statement, “I was hired to provide positive, difference-making leadership and support. Our record is proof. I did not do my job.”
The club’s search for a new manager is ongoing, with Ozzie Guillen, Ron Washington, Pedro Grifol, and Joe Espada among those in the running. Managers are not measurable in the way players are, and I think often tend to get too much credit or blame for a team’s record. So I won’t try to get into the merits of each candidate, but hopefully this time around Rick Hahn, the team’s GM for the last decade, will have autonomy to make his own choice. Hahn’s place as the team’s GM seems secure at least for now. As Jon Heyman of the New York Post put it at the end of September, “It’s unlikely longtime White Sox general manager Rick Hahn will pay for the team’s stark underachievement…while owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s legendary loyalty worked against the baseball ops department with the Tony La Russa hiring, it likely works in their favor now.”
Turning to the players, disappointments and failures abound for a club that was a consensus favorite to win the AL Central and instead finished 11 games behind the Guardians. We’ll start with the outfield, which served as the worst defensive unit in baseball. Much of that has to do with Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets, who combined to take 30% of the team’s defensive innings in the outfield. Vaughn, in particular, probably rates as the worst defensive outfielder in baseball in 2022. While Sheets was exactly league average as a hitter, Vaughn improved to a 113 wRC+ as a sophomore. We’ll get to first base later in this post, but that was Vaughn’s position through college and his brief time in the minors, and it seems he’ll finally settle in there for 2023.
That leaves the White Sox with only one outfielder definitively penciled in for next year: center fielder Luis Robert. Robert, 25, did not take the star turn many anticipated in 2022. Health has been a big part of that. Robert played only 68 games in 2021 due to a right hip flexor strain that cost him more than three months. Robert hit so well in 43 games since returning from that injury that 2022 seemed like his possible coming-out party. Instead, he played in only 98 games, managing a 111 wRC+ while playing a middling center field.
Robert battled a groin strain in April, but then went on a 62-game tear in which he posted a 139 wRC+ despite a COVID stint in the middle. After that run of success, Robert dealt with lightheadedness, blurred vision, a wrist sprain, and a bruised hand. While Robert’s talent remains tantalizing, he’s played in just over half of his team’s games since 2021 and the White Sox have to be ready to call upon backups often next year.
One of those backups could again be AJ Pollock, who must decide between a $13MM player option and a $5MM buyout after the season. As a 35-year-old coming off a down year, Pollock doesn’t figure to top the $8MM net value of that option on the open market, so the smart money is on him staying put. The Sox also gave center field innings to Adam Engel, who can be retained affordably through arbitration but is not a lock given a 63 wRC+ on the season.
Pollock, Vaughn, and Eloy Jimenez served as Chicago’s left fielders this year. Assuming Pollock takes more of a backup role, Vaughn moves to first, and Jimenez gets increased DH time, the White Sox need a new starting left fielder. Several key White Sox hitters struggled against righties this year. Free agency offers a particularly solid fit in Andrew Benintendi, a quality defender who hits right-handed pitching well. Joc Pederson is another palatable option. Pollock can complement in a lefty-mashing role.
Right field continues to be a revolving door for the White Sox; they haven’t found any success at the position since Avisail Garcia’s 2017 campaign. 24-year-old Oscar Colas might be able to break the mold. Colas signed in January for $2.7MM and spent most of the season hitting well at High-A and Double-A, finishing his season at Triple-A. Yoelqui Cespedes could be a factor as well, though he didn’t hit well enough at Double-A to suggest he’ll succeed in MLB.
Since neither the health of Robert nor the success of Colas is guaranteed, the Sox could consider a veteran addition capable of playing both center and right field. Mike Yastrzemski, Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier, and Ramon Laureano could fit that description. Bellinger could be non-tendered by the Dodgers, while Kiermaier’s club option will be bought out by the Rays. Yastrzemski and Laureano are arbitration-eligible for the Giants and A’s, respectively, but could be trade candidates this winter.
Moving to the infield, the White Sox are in a tough spot with Yoan Moncada. The 27-year-old is locked up at significant cost through at least 2024, but he has continued to alternate good and bad seasons since coming to the White Sox. In 2022 he was both bad (career-worst 76 wRC+) and injured (oblique strain, multiple hamstring strains). Barring a trade, the team will have to pencil Moncada in at third base again, with Jake Burger still serving as the backup option.
At shortstop, Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option is an easy choice to exercise. Anderson is an excellent player when healthy, but has only played in 62% of the team’s games since 2021. This year he dealt with a groin strain and a torn ligament in his left hand. The White Sox caught lightning in a bottle with the strong play of veteran Elvis Andrus, who was released by the A’s in August. If Andrus departs for a more clear starting job elsewhere, the club will need a good backup plan at shortstop much as they do with Robert in center field.
Second base was handled by Josh Harrison and Leury Garcia in 2022. Harrison, 35, played capably, but there’s still a pretty good chance the team declines his $5.625MM option after the World Series. Second base has been a void for the White Sox even longer than right field has; they haven’t really had a player excel there since Tadahito Iguchi in 2005, excepting 109 solid plate appearances from Nick Madrigal in the pandemic-shortened season. Speaking of Madrigal, there’s a fair chance he’s made available this winter if the Cubs sign a shortstop. The White Sox do still have Garcia under contract. Danny Mendick could be an option as well, once he’s recovered from a torn ACL suffered in June. The free agent market could offer players such as Jean Segura or Kolten Wong if their options are declined. Brandon Drury could be a solid addition given his ability to play both second and third base.
Over at first base, vibes are strong that Jose Abreu will be allowed to leave as a free agent after nine successful seasons. While I understand the desire to plug Vaughn in at his natural position and leave DH at-bats for Jimenez, Sheets, and Yasmani Grandal, the team seems fairly nonchalant about losing arguably their best hitter. It’s true that a team with Abreu, Vaughn, and Jimenez has to make a defensive compromise by putting one of the latter two into a corner outfield spot. Still, the offense takes a hit with the probable loss of Abreu.
In Jimenez, the White Sox have a third core position player who has missed significant time over the last two seasons. Jimenez has missed even more time than Anderson and Robert, playing in only 43% of the team’s games since 2021. 26 in November, Jimenez remains capable of a monster offensive season if only he can stay healthy. In 2021, he tore a pectoral muscle in spring training and made his season debut in late July. This year, it was a late April hamstring strain that required surgery and cost Jimenez more than two months. While the lack of communication between players and teams during the lockout is a significant variable here, it’s fair to ask: why can’t the White Sox keep Robert, Anderson, and Jimenez healthy? Is it something inherent in the players, or the team?
Behind the plate, the White Sox have a repeat of the Moncada situation: stuck with with a player who has a big contract and hit really, really poorly in 2022. Grandal, 34 in November, led all catchers with a 158 wRC+ in 2021 and was one of the worst-hitting backstops with a 68 mark this year. Grandal dealt with back and knee injuries this year, following offseason knee surgery. Unless they can unload his franchise-record contract somehow ($18.25MM of which remains), the White Sox have to hope he can bounce back and provide value in ’23. Grandal hasn’t topped 627 1/3 innings behind the dish since 2019. He needs to be complemented with a starting-caliber catcher. Seby Zavala was able to fill that role this year with a surprising 111 wRC+ at the plate. A veteran addition would still make sense here.
Moving to the rotation, the White Sox received better results than they could possibly have expected out of Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto, who combined for 337 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball. The only thing holding Cease back from being a bona fide ace is his walk rate, which went up a tick this year to 10.4%. He still managed to post a ridiculous 1.51 ERA over his final 23 starts. The White Sox control Cease for three more years, and they may consider trying to lock him up beyond that. Cueto, signed to a minor league deal in April, may sign elsewhere as a free agent.
Along with Moncada and Grandal, Lucas Giolito performed well below expectations this year. While his SIERA was virtually identical to 2021, his ERA rose from 3.53 to 4.90. Strikeouts, fastball velocity, and walks all moved in the wrong direction, and notably, Giolito’s batting average on balls in play rose from .269 to .340. That can’t all be blamed on the team’s defense or on bad luck, as Giolito’s pitches were indeed hit harder than last year, per Statcast. There’s not much to be done here except try to find a way to bounce back; Giolito is still a bargain at his projected $10.8MM arbitration salary.
On the other end of the spectrum, Michael Kopech pitched to a 4.73 SIERA but managed a 3.54 ERA, despite being the staff’s pre-eminent flyball pitcher working with the game’s worst defensive outfield. Much of that ERA stems from a .223 BABIP. It’s worth noting: if the skills Giolito and Kopech demonstrated in 2022 – strikeouts, walks, and groundballs – remain the exact same next year, you should expect Giolito to have the better season.
At any rate, the White Sox have four starting pitchers locked in for 2023. Even with internal options like Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and eventually Garrett Crochet, the Sox would be well-served adding a starting pitcher.
With a collective 4.00 ERA, the White Sox did not get great results from their bullpen. But again, ERA is unreliable, and the group did miss bats. Having traded Craig Kimbrel on April 1st, the highest-leverage innings went to Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, and Reynaldo Lopez. The first three are under contract for next year, and Lopez is under team control. Veterans Joe Kelly and Jake Diekman are under contract as well, so Chicago’s bullpen seems pretty well set for next year unless they trade someone to trim salary.
The White Sox opened the season with a payroll over $190MM – easily the highest in franchise history. Assuming Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Lopez, and Mendick are tendered contracts, they’ll have about $167MM committed to 18 players. Add in eight more players at the league minimum and the payroll is around $172MM. So if you’re Hahn, what do you do with a roster that is already largely in place for next year, and limited financial wiggle room?
Running a similar group back next year with a new manager isn’t as crazy as it sounds. The Sox can add one decent defensive outfielder and get Vaughn into his natural position, and the outfield defense will improve greatly. They could use a new second baseman plus rotation and catching depth. Maybe Hahn will shake things up with some trades, though it’s not a team with any real surplus except possibly well-paid relievers. Most of the pieces remain in place for a 90-win team – particularly if Anderson, Robert, and Jimenez are able to stay healthy next year.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Chicago Cubs
MLBTR will be holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams. My Cubs Offseason Outlook was published yesterday, and today I answered your questions about the team! Read the transcript here.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
In conjunction with this post, Tim Dierkes held a Cubs-centric live chat on 10-18-22. Read the transcript here.
The time has come for the Cubs to add significant talent, but are they willing to make long-term commitments?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Marcus Stroman, SP: $46MM through 2024. Can opt out of remaining one year and $21MM after 2023 season
- Jason Heyward, RF: $22MM through 2023
- Kyle Hendricks, SP: $15.5MM through 2023. Includes $16MM club option for 2024
- Seiya Suzuki, RF: $73MM through 2026
- Yan Gomes, C: $7MM through 2023. Includes $6MM club option for 2024
- David Bote, 3B: $10.5MM through 2024. Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for 2026
Total 2023 commitments: $92.5MM
Total future commitments: $181.5MM
Option Decisions
- Drew Smyly, SP: $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Ian Happ (5.036): $10.6MM
- Franmil Reyes (4.115): $6MM
- Nico Hoerner (3.014): $2.2MM
- Steven Brault (4.167): $1.7MM
- Rafael Ortega (2.145): $1.7MM
- Rowan Wick (3.114): $1.5MM
- Nick Madrigal (2.164): $1.1MM
- Alec Mills (3.097): $800K
- Brad Wieck (3.085): $800K
- Codi Heuer (3.000): $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Reyes, Brault, Mills, Wieck
Free Agents
The 2022 Cubs played to their low preseason expectations. FanGraphs pegged them for 75 wins, and they won 74. It was an assortment of players that seemed unlikely to contend, but could maybe hang on the fringes of playoff contention.
As it turned out, the Cubs posted an abysmal 35-57 first half and were out of contention very quickly, but salvaged their record and created optimism in some quarters with a 39-31 second half. How much of that success is sustainable, and who will president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer pursue this winter to turn this team into a contender?
The rotation posted a 2.89 ERA in the second half, which ranked third in baseball. This fact was touted by owner Tom Ricketts in his annual letter to fans, so it’s worth a deeper look. One stat that jumps out is the rotation’s MLB-best 80.1% left-on-base percentage in the second half. Coupled with a below-average strikeout rate, there’s little indication the Cubs’ starting pitchers are actually skilled at stranding baserunners.
Eight Cubs pitchers made four or more starts in the second half. Two of them, Drew Smyly and Wade Miley, are headed toward free agency. The remaining six: Marcus Stroman, Adrian Sampson, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Keegan Thompson.
Stroman dealt with COVID-19 and shoulder inflammation early this year, but was excellent in 16 starts to close out his season. While the veteran serves as the Cubs’ nominal ace heading into his age-32 campaign, he’s also likely to opt out of the remaining $21MM on his contract with a solid 2023. Stroman is a good player to have for ’23, but he’ll essentially be in a contract year and thus isn’t a long-term piece.
As for Smyly, the Cubs are expected to talk to his agent this month about a new contract, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. If the Cubs were to sign Smyly to a two-year deal, it’d cover his age 34-35 seasons. Smyly’s 22 starts this year went about as well as could be expected, and the temptation to lock in a veteran for next year is understandable. Smyly did miss all of June with an oblique strain, and battled shoulder fatigue in the season’s final two weeks. This year’s 106 1/3 innings is about all a team can expect from him. Even cherry-picking to leave out April and September, Smyly still averaged fewer than five innings per start. He had a below-average strikeout rate, too, instead succeeding based on a low walk rate and weak contact. There may be some recency bias at play here in the expectation that Smyly’s modest 2022 success will continue.
The Cubs did turn up a pair of interesting, under-30 potential long-term rotation pieces in the second half: Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski. Steele, a 27-year-old southpaw, closed out his season with a run of 14 starts featured a sparkling 2.05 ERA and solid 16 K-BB%. For a two-month span, Steele looked, at least, like one of the 20 best pitchers in the game. He missed all of September due to a back injury, so the next step in his development will be to increase his innings beyond this year’s 119.
Wesneski, 25 in December, came via a shrewd one-for-one trade with the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross. Wesneski posted an excellent 2.18 ERA in 33 innings with the peripherals to match, but it was only 33 innings and his 5.3% walk rate in the Majors is likely unsustainable.
At present the Cubs can really only write Stroman and Steele into their 2023 rotation. World Series hero Kyle Hendricks has at least one year left on his contract, but his season ended in July due to a capsular tear in his right shoulder. The Cubs can hope for a return to form, but can’t count on Hendricks. Of the other rotation candidates, Sampson and Assad had the best results, combining for a 3.19 ERA in 27 starts. Neither had the peripheral stats to back up an ERA below 4.50. The bottom line is that a competitive 2023 team will need to add at least two starting pitchers this winter. Even if one of them is Smyly, who else might the Cubs consider?
Asked about adding a top of the rotation starter – which the Cubs obviously need – Hoyer replied, “I think it’s important that we continue to add quality innings. We’re actively looking for quality innings, pitchers we feel like we can work with and potentially make better.” To me, this is mostly classic GM-speak that doesn’t reveal much about offseason plans, though Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports feels Hoyer’s comment suggests sights set somewhere below one of the best pitchers on the free agent market, Carlos Rodon.
I believe the Cubs are committed to avoiding risky contracts, and wouldn’t take the plunge on a starter like Rodon unless, like Stroman, he could somehow be landed on a three-year deal. While I agree with the speculation that Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are unlikely to join the 2023 Cubs, I think the market is rife with opportunities for good pitchers who can be had with commitments of three or fewer years. And keep in mind, the three-year limitation is only my speculation.
It’s easy to see the Cubs focusing some interest on older but recently-effective starters who shouldn’t require excessive years: Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jameson Taillon are a few who come to mind. It’s also easy to see Hoyer turning back to Japan for Kodai Senga, who turns 30 in January and just posted a 1.89 ERA in 148 innings for the Softbank Hawks. A four-year deal for Senga at an AAV below that of the typical MLB-experienced free agent ace could be possible. Zach Eflin could be another name to watch, as the soon-to-be free agent righty doesn’t turn 29 until April. The Cubs could pursue Shane Bieber or Pablo Lopez via trade, and that market always includes a few surprises every winter. If Shohei Ohtani is made available, the Cubs would have to at least gauge the asking price and consider converting some of their prospect capital into the superstar they’re lacking.
Turning to the bullpen, the Cubs were relying on Brandon Hughes, Manny Rodriguez, Mark Leiter Jr., Adbert Alzolay, and Keegan Thompson in high leverage situations in the season’s final month. That was necessitated by the club’s veteran bullpen purge, which saw David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Effross sent packing in trades. It seems likely Hoyer will continue deploying his strategy of one-year deals for veteran free agent relievers, with the specific names impossible to predict.
On the position player side, the Cubs seem content with Happ and Suzuki at the corners again next year. While neither fit the profile as a middle of the order masher, both outfielders posted offensive numbers at least 16% better than league average. At 3.5 WAR, Happ put together the best season of his career in 2022, and the Cubs will at least explore an extension. My guess is that Happ won’t be retained long-term, with prospects Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario near MLB-ready.
The Cubs gave most of their center field reps to Christopher Morel and Rafael Ortega in 2022. While Morel had a solid rookie season overall, there’s a good chance the Cubs will look outside the organization for short-term help in center. A one-year deal for Cody Bellinger (who’s likely to be non-tendered by the Dodgers) could be interesting, or the Cubs could take a more defense-minded approach with Kevin Kiermaier. Long-term, the Cubs will likely keep center field open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who finished 2022 at High-A.
The Cubs surprisingly held on to catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline this year, presumably because they felt the offers were worse than the draft pick they would receive if he turns down a qualifying offer. That pick would be between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next summer’s draft. Contreras, 31 in May, will likely seek a four or five-year deal in free agency, and the Cubs have not seemed interested in hammering something out to retain their longtime backstop.
A Contreras departure would leave the Cubs reliant on Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins behind the plate. Prospect Miguel Amaya is recovering from injuries and has yet to play above Double-A, but could be a factor for the Cubs in the second half. The free agent market features a typical array of veteran catchers, and there’s a decent chance the Cubs will sign one to bolster their depth.
Alfonso Rivas, 26, led the Cubs in defensive innings at first base. He managed just an 82 wRC+ in 287 plate appearances. The Cubs released Frank Schwindel in September, and simply don’t have much at the position. Much of their DH time went to Franmil Reyes, Contreras, and Schwindel. Reyes posted a 94 wRC+ in 193 plate appearances for the Cubs after being claimed off waivers from the Guardians, and the team may choose not to tender him a contract and instead keep their options open.
This leaves the Cubs hurting for offense at two traditionally easier-to-fill positions in first base and DH. The ship may have sailed on Anthony Rizzo even if he does opt out of his Yankees contract, but free agency offers names like Jose Abreu, Brandon Belt, J.D. Martinez, Matt Carpenter, and Michael Brantley. The Cubs may also find some at-bats for Matt Mervis, who would be a 25-year-old rookie next year and had a huge 2022 with the bat as he ascended from High-A to Triple-A.
The Cubs could also look to upgrade at third base, after a 1.1 WAR season from Patrick Wisdom. Wisdom, who has also played some first base and left field, could still stick around as a lefty-masher. If Nolan Arenado doesn’t reach free agency, the third base market looks thin. Names like Brandon Drury or Evan Longoria could be in play.
Nico Hoerner’s breakout 4-WAR 2022 campaign affords the Cubs some intriguing possibilities. The first could be an extension for Hoerner, perhaps with J.P. Crawford’s four-year, $46.15MM extension serving as a guidepost. Though Hoerner logged almost all of his innings at shortstop this year and got above-average defensive marks, the Cubs have signaled a willingness to move him to second base next year. That could make playing time hard to come by for Nick Madrigal, but the 25-year-old contact specialist put up just a 70 wRC+ in 228 plate appearances this year.
Speculation has been heavy on the possibility of the Cubs signing one of the four big free agent shortstops: Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, or Carlos Correa. Owner Tom Ricketts did nothing to dispel that notion, saying in his letter to fans, “We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.” Hoyer told reporters, “I have total confidence — if we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players — that we’ll have his blessing. And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”
Hoyer has also been known to talk about “intelligent” spending. He elaborated recently, “To me, intelligent spending involves making decisions that make sense for the 2023 season but also aren’t going to hinder what we’re trying to build. The nature of baseball contracts is challenging that way. We’ve all seen contracts of certain lengths that can really bog a team down. It’s easy to talk about the player you’re acquiring, but if that contract ends up hindering the ultimate goal here, which is to build something special and sustainable and lasting, then it wasn’t a good transaction.”
Regret set in pretty quickly for the Cubs’ last two $100MM deals. With Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal, he simply never hit as the Cubs expected, and Hoyer told reporters in August that the club will release him and eat the $22MM remaining on his contract for 2023. Darvish was traded for prospects halfway through his six-year deal. Heyward’s contract, in particular, contributed to the Ricketts family keeping the checkbook closed after the 2018 and ’19 seasons.
We at MLBTR are still deliberating our free agent contract projections, but all of the big four shortstops figure to hit the market seeking seven or eight-year deals. Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson, and Correa were born within a two-year span of each other. Bogaerts, the oldest, recently turned 30. Correa, the youngest, just celebrated his 28th birthday. That gap may not seem like much, but the Cubs are clearly worried about entering another long-term deal they’ll quickly regret. That’s why I could see some favor for Correa, who could sign a seven-year deal that would still only take him through age 34.
Considering likely non-tenders, the Cubs appear to have about $107MM tied up for a dozen players in 2023, including Heyward’s money. Assuming Stroman opts out after ’23, the Cubs have a mere two players under contract for 2024 with Suzuki making $20MM and Bote at $5.5MM. The initial competitive balance tax thresholds are set at $233MM in 2023 and $237MM in 2024. The Cubs, in one of the country’s largest markets, are currently $217MM below the first CBT threshold for 2024 if Stroman opts out.
There are no players the Cubs can’t afford, up to and including Aaron Judge. But with Judge turning 31 in April and looking to be paid through age-38 and beyond – and with the Cubs’ outfield in decent long-term shape – he seems an unlikely target.
The Cubs are not remotely close to the CBT. While teams have stopped paying top free agents through age 41, as the Angels did with Albert Pujols a decade ago, paying stars through age 37 is still often the only way to get them. And even deals for the youngest of free agents can go bust; it’s hard to find a free agent younger than the 26 Heyward was when the Cubs signed him.
The Cubs outspent expectations last winter with over $200MM in commitments, yet still avoided the leap of faith required to sign the top players on the market. With the payroll looking increasingly clear and two rebuilding seasons in the rearview, we’ll find out soon how far the Cubs are willing to go.