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How Many $100 Million Contracts Are Left This Offseason?

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23 years ago, the Dodgers signed righty Kevin Brown to a seven-year, $105MM deal in advance of his age-34 season.  It was the first baseball contract to break the $100MM barrier.  The deal famously included a charter jet to fly Brown’s family from Georgia to Los Angeles 12 times per season.  Sandy Alderson, then working for the commissioner’s office, called the deal “an affront and an insult to the commissioner of baseball.”  Rivals were also displeased with Dodgers GM Kevin Malone, believing other bidders were not close.

Due to inflation and increases in MLB revenue, $300MM is now the top of the market round number, and nine players have crossed that barrier.  $100MM is the realm of the very good, not superstar territory.  Still, that round number still holds some psychological significance.  This winter Corey Seager signed for $325MM, while Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have signed in the $110-175MM range.

That’s six $100MM contracts so far this winter, which we haven’t seen since seven players broke the barrier following the 2015 season.  How many more $100M deals will be struck once the lockout ends, with 20 of our top 50 free agents still on the board?

There’s a general expectation that we’ll see a free agent frenzy of sorts when the lockout ends, with the possibility that most signings will have to occur in a period of less than one month.  That pressure should make for an action-packed spring training/hot stove period.  In theory, we could see increased spending once new competitive balance tax thresholds are known and 15 National League designated hitter jobs are potentially added.  But for the most part, I think teams already have an idea of what they think each free agent is worth, and I don’t think that’s going to change much post-lockout.

I see a total of eight remaining free agents with at least some plausible chance to reach $100MM, if I’m generous.  Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman are locks.  Other candidates include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and Nick Castellanos, who were all projected by MLBTR in November to top the $100MM barrier.  We’ll also throw Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, and Seiya Suzuki in the mix, even though they seem like long shots.   In the poll below, vote for all the players you think will sign a contract worth $100MM or more before the season begins.  Click here for a direct link to the poll, and here for the results.

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Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With Hall Of Famer Chipper Jones

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This is a big one.  Chipper Jones needs no introduction; you can simply read his Hall of Fame plaque.  Chipper is one of the best switch-hitters of all time.  Drafted first overall in 1990, he was the offensive centerpiece of the Braves dynasty in the 90s and early 2000s mainly as the team’s third baseman.  Chipper’s first full season was 1995, when the Braves won the World Series and he finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting.  His accomplishments are too numerous to list, but Jones was the 1999 NL MVP and received votes in 12 other seasons.  He hit 30 home runs in six separate seasons, including 45 in ’99.  He also reached the century mark in RBI nine times.  Even as he battled injuries later in his career, Jones’ production stayed strong, and he won the 2008 batting title by hitting .364 at age 36.

Jones finished his career with a .303/.401/.529 line, hitting 468 home runs in his 19-year career.  He became a first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2018.  We were honored to host Chipper today for a live chat.  Click here to read the transcript.  You can follow Chipper on Twitter @RealCJ10.

If you’re a current or former MLB player who would like to do a chat with MLBTR readers, reach out through our contact form!  We’ve also had requests for a chat with a former MLB general manager, if there are any out there who would be interested.

Our Lockout Lottery Is Now Closed

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UPDATE: The contest is now closed.  We’ll be rooting for the lockout to end as soon as possible.

You’re here on this website, waiting for some sort of news indicating the MLB lockout will soon end.  We’ve got nothing: no indication of recent talks or progress.  Transactions are frozen, so we’re left to do our best talking about what happened in November and what might happen post-lockout.

That means our free agent prediction contest is frozen too, with Scott Schum standing alone atop the leaderboard with a .433 batting average.  Scott has been able to pull off this Nap Lajoie-like feat by correctly predicting the destinations of Corey Seager, Marcus Stroman, and Starling Marte, among many others.

I thought it might be fun to make the best of a bad situation by creating a contest to predict the date on which the lockout officially ends.  Everyone who guesses correctly will receive a free one-year subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office, or a one-year extension if you already have one.

By “officially ends,” I mean the date on which a press release from MLB goes out declaring the lockout over.  If there winds up being some subjectivity on the official date, the MLBTR staff will deliberate and decide.

If you’re interested in signing up for Trade Rumors Front Office right now, click here to learn more about the benefits.

Passan On CBA Negotiations

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On Monday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that no negotiating sessions were scheduled between MLB and the players’ union.  That remains the case, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes today that “MLB is working on proposals to bring to the table.”  Passan’s sources believe the “earliest negotiations will ramp up this time is late January.”

Passan suggests MLB is hoping to determine what tops the players’ list of priorities: the oft-repeated “competitive integrity” anti-tanking buzzword, getting players paid earlier in their careers, or raising the competitive balance tax thresholds.

As has been reported previously, MLB’s most recent proposal had the CBT threshold starting at $214MM in 2022.  MLB’s proposal had the thresholds progressing only to $220MM by the end of a presumed five-year deal.  Going from $210MM in ’21 to $220MM in ’26 would be a 4.8% increase.  As I’ll explain, that’d represent the union’s biggest failure yet in increasing the CBT.

Last month, I documented how the CBT thresholds have changed with each new CBA, after this tax was introduced in 1997.  In 2003, the threshold was increased by 98.6% from the previous mark, jumping from $58.9MM in ’99 all the way to $117MM in ’03.  That was the first of four collective bargaining agreements where CBT increases were on the table, once it was initially set at $51MM in ’97.

That set of negotiations had the CBT ending at $136.5MM in ’06.  In the CBA spanning 2007-11, the players were able to get a 30.4% increase by ’11, jumping up to $178MM.  But in the CBA spanning 2012-16, the players had a major loss.  They succeeded only in taking the CBT from $178MM to $189MM, an increase of about 6.2%.  Compared to that $189MM point, the 2017-21 CBA ended with an 11.1% bump to get to $210MM.

The players have reportedly set their opening bid for the CBT at $245MM.  That implies they might hope to see it progress to around $260MM by the end of the deal.  A jump from a $210MM starting point to a $260MM ending point would represent a 23.8% increase, falling neatly between the player-favoring 30% increase of ’07 and the MLB-favoring 11% increase of ’17.

The CBT is a major issue, but it remains to be seen whether the players will abandon some other more aggressive asks to prioritize it.  As Passan sees it, if the two sides don’t make progress by February 1st, a spring training delay is likely.  He feels that a lack of progress by March 1st “sets off the alarm” in terms of not starting the season on time, given all that must be done to be ready to play.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With Mariners Reliever Paul Sewald

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Righty reliever Paul Sewald signed a minor league deal with the Mariners about a year ago.  On May 13th, when his contract was selected by the club, the promotions of Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert got all the headlines.  Little did we know, Sewald would become one of the year’s best stories.  From the point of Sewald’s season debut on May 16th, he’d go on to lead all MLB relievers in strikeouts by a wide margin, with 104 in 64 2/3 innings.  Among relievers with at least 60 innings on the season, Sewald’s 39.4 K% ranked second in baseball.

Born in Las Vegas, Sewald was drafted in the 10th round by the Mets out of the University of San Diego in 2012.  He made his big league debut against the Marlins at Citi Field on April 8th, 2017.  Sewald logged 147 1/3 relief innings for the Mets before landing with the Mariners.

Deploying a sweeping slider, elevated fastballs, and a deceptive delivery, Sewald ascended to the top of the pecking order in the Mariners’ bullpen by August.  Sewald pitched in 19 of the Mariners’ last 32 games as they pushed for a playoff spot, always in the highest-leverage situations.  Sewald’s breakout 2021 season included 10 wins, a 3.06 ERA, 104 strikeouts, 11 saves, and 16 holds.  He’s slated to hold a prominent role in Seattle’s pen again in ’22.

Sewald is currently locked out by MLB, but he agreed to come chat with MLBTR readers today!  Click here to read the transcript.  And be sure to follow Paul on Twitter @ItsPaulSewald.

If there’s been one good thing for this website to come out of the lockout, it’s been these live chats with MLB players.  If you’re a current or former MLB player with some stories to tell, contact us here to set up a chat!  It’s fun and easy, and you get to choose which questions you answer.

Adam Eaton Considering Retirement, Possible Coaching Position With Angels

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About a year ago, the White Sox signed Adam Eaton to a one-year, $7MM deal to be their right fielder.  By July, Eaton had been designated for assignment.  The Angels picked him up for the league minimum, and he lasted about a month with them before being released.  The 33-year-old Eaton is “at least considering retirement,” according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, in part because the Angels discussed a coaching position with him prior to the lockout.  However, MLB’s stance is that Eaton is locked out from discussing employment as a coach.

Minor league free agents like Jake Bauers – even with plenty of MLB time this year – have been able to sign minor league contracts during the lockout.  Though he was released by the Angels on August 20th, Eaton become a free agent via unconditional release waivers, and is therefore covered by the lockout.  That means Eaton is unable to sign with a team as a coach or a player.  “The union does not necessarily agree” that Eaton should be locked out, according to Rosenthal.

Rosenthal has more on the Angels’ coaching staff, including their addition of Bill Haselman as a catching instructor.  Haselman had a 13-year MLB career spanning 1990-2003.  Phil Nevin and Benji Gil are also known to have roles on Joe Maddon’s staff.

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Read The Transcript From Our Chat With Former MLB Outfielder Jody Gerut

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Drafted in the second round in 1998 by the Rockies out of Stanford, Jody Gerut joined the Indians in a 2001 trade.  He’d finish fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2003, popping 22 home runs in 127 games.  Injuries sidetracked Gerut’s career, and he missed all of the 2006-07 seasons.  Gerut stayed resilient and bounced back with a strong ’08 season for the Padres, putting up 2.9 WAR in only 100 games.

In total, Gerut played in 574 games for the Indians, Cubs, Pirates, Padres, and Brewers, smacking 59 home runs along the way while playing all three outfield positions.  Jody homered off many of the era’s great pitchers, including Pedro Martinez, Jake Peavy, and Bartolo Colon.  He also hit the first home run in the history of Citi Field when it opened in 2009 and hit for the cycle against the Diamondbacks in 2010.

Jody serves as a youth hitting coach in the Chicago suburbs in his spare time, and I’ve had the pleasure of meeting him when my son took lessons.  Jody now works as a mortgage consultant, and you can find his website here.  I’ve found him friendly and insightful about hitting as well as MLB.  He was already an MLBTR reader and I was thrilled to have him for a live chat with our readers today.  Click here to read the transcript!

We’ve got another fun MLB player chat lined up for tomorrow.  All the players who have participated have enjoyed the experience.  If you’re a former or current MLB player and you’d like to join in for an hour, drop us a line!

Justin Bour Signs With Mexico City Red Devils

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First baseman Justin Bour has signed with the Red Devils of Mexico City (Diablos Rojos del México) for the 2022 season, announced the team on December 30th.  After playing in the Majors from 2014-19 with the Marlins, Phillies, and Angels, Bour spent 2020 with the Hanshin Tigers.  He signed a minor league deal in March 2021 to return stateside with the Giants, but he moved to KBO’s LG Twins after 33 Triple-A games.

The 18-team Mexican League was founded in 1925 and became part of Minor League Baseball thirty years later, and was eventually considered a Triple-A league.  The Mexican League’s longtime connection ended in 2021 when MLB re-organized the minors.  Bour joins several players with MLB experience on the Diablos Rojos’ roster, including Arquimedes Caminero, Jumbo Diaz, Roberto Osuna, JC Ramirez, Yangervis Solarte, and Jorge Cantu.  Diablos manager Jorge del Valle noted that Bour brings similar power to that of Jon Singleton, who recently signed a minor league deal with the Brewers.

Bour, 33, was drafted by the Cubs in the 25th round out of George Mason University back in 2009.  He remains the most successful Major Leaguer from that Virginia college.  Bour joined the Marlins in the 2013 Rule 5 draft.  He became the Marlins’ primary first baseman from 2015-18, finishing fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting with a 23-homer debut in ’15.  Bour popped 83 home runs for the Marlins in that span and ranks 12th in franchise history.  A left-handed hitter, Bour generally needed to be platooned against southpaws but still owns a 123 wRC+ against righties in his 559-game MLB career.

The Best Remaining Free Agents

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The expiration of the collective bargaining agreement brought about a November flurry of free agent signings well beyond anything we’ve seen before.  We published our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list on November 8th, and at this point 20 players from that list remain unsigned.  Let’s take a look at who will still be out there when the lockout ends.

1.  Carlos Correa.  The Rangers committed $500MM to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, while the Tigers signed Javier Baez.  The Tigers doubling up on one of the big five free agent shortstops should, in theory, be a good thing for Correa.  As our top free agent of the winter, we still believe Correa’s agent will find a way to get his client paid.  However, if teams like the Yankees, Astros, Angels, and Phillies truly won’t get near Correa’s assumed asking price (north of Seager’s $325MM), he lacks a contending big market team in need of a shortstop.

3.  Freddie Freeman.  Most observers still consider the Braves the favorite for Freeman.  Last week, I ran through potential matches if the Braves can’t get it done.  MLBTR readers saw the Yankees and Dodgers as clear favorites in that case.  For what it’s worth, I don’t agree with that.

4.  Kris Bryant.  Hours prior to the expiration of the CBA, Jon Heyman mentioned that the Mets, Angels, and Padres had shown interest in Bryant, while the Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros are among the other teams who have “checked in.”  Bryant’s expected market prior to the lockout remains mostly intact, but the Rangers have committed $561.2MM to free agents and the Mets are in for $254.5MM.  That probably decreased the willingness of those teams to go big on Bryant.

8.  Trevor Story.  Story could serve as the more affordable alternative to Correa, with Baez’s six-year, $140MM deal likely serving as a benchmark.  Story doesn’t have an obvious shortstop-needy team with $100MM+ burning a hole in its pocket, however.

10.  Nick Castellanos.  Castellanos was one of the top available bats at the opening of free agency, and he figures to be easier for a new team to sign than Freeman.  Still, Castellanos is a player with some wide error bars on contract predictions.  MLBTR said $115MM over five years, but outlets like ESPN and FanGraphs were at three years and $54-63MM.

15.  Kyle Schwarber.  Schwarber is a player who works against Castellanos, in that he’s a year younger and didn’t receive a qualifying offer.  He had a similar 2021 season to Castellanos, albeit with less volume.

18.  Carlos Rodon.  We felt that second half health concerns would limit Rodon to one to three years, and we still feel that way.  If that’s correct, his market could be robust given the increasing aversion among teams to long-term contracts.  The chance to get a potential ace on a short-term deal is what made Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander so appealing.

20.  Seiya Suzuki.  When the lockout ends, Suzuki will have 20 days left to sign with an MLB team.  As Brad Lefton of the New York Times pointed out in late November, “Spring training in Japan starts Feb. 1, roughly three weeks earlier than the current MLB schedule. Beyond players with health issues, latecomers are almost unheard-of in Japan. If Suzuki has any thoughts of returning to the Carp, he would probably want to do that with the rest of the group on Feb. 1.”  If we don’t see progress on the MLB lockout this month, it’s possible Suzuki will play another year in Japan rather than wait around in limbo.

21.  Anthony Rizzo.  It’s possible Rizzo would like to see what happens with Freeman to get clarity on his own market, but Rizzo will require a much more modest contract.  He could find a home with a team that won’t be considering Freeman.  Rizzo and his wife have moved out of their longtime Chicago apartment, but if he signs a relatively small contract elsewhere there will be many in Chicago wondering why the Cubs didn’t do it.

25.  Jorge Soler.  Soler’s market hasn’t been altered much by the signings that have taken place.  He’ll be rooting for the National League designated hitter.

29.  Kenley Jansen.  Most of the top right-handed relievers are off the board, like Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Hector Neris, Mark Melancon, and Corey Knebel.  But contenders can almost always supplement the bullpen, so Jansen should be fine.  The Angels, White Sox, Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres are the ten teams who have spent at least $7MM on a reliever so far.

32.  Michael Conforto.  We’ve only seen four major outfield signings so far in Starling Marte, Chris Taylor, Avisail Garcia, and Mark Canha.  We generally didn’t expect Conforto to re-sign with the Mets anyway, so his market is largely unaffected.

33.  Clayton Kershaw.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 81.8% of readers predicted Kershaw would sign with the Dodgers or Rangers or retire.  Hopefully we haven’t seen the last of the lefty, who turns 34 in March.  Kershaw received a PRP injection in his left flexor tendon in October.

34.  Yusei Kikuchi.  One of four starting pitchers remaining from our Top 50 list, Kikuchi is only 30 years old and comes without health concerns.  Despite a 4.41 ERA on the season, the lefty has upside and should be a popular post-lockout target.

40.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke, 38, seems in line for a one-year deal if he decides to continue playing.

41.  Eddie Rosario.  Rosario seemed like a decent match for the Marlins, who signed Avisail Garcia for $53MM.  Otherwise, his market should be mostly intact.

43.  Jonathan Villar.  Leury Garcia signed a three-year, $16.5MM deal to stay with the White Sox as their jack-of-all-trades utility guy.  Villar generally doesn’t play outfield, but he’s otherwise comparable and may still find a two-year deal.

45.  Ryan Tepera.  Tepera is a solid right-handed setup type.  Hector Neris’ two-year, $17MM deal could be a comparable on the high end.  Tepera may be easier to sign than Jansen, as Tepera doesn’t have any attachment to serving in a closer’s role.

47.  Nelson Cruz.  Like Soler, Cruz will be well-served by a universal DH.

48.  Danny Duffy.  Last month, Duffy told Andy McCullough of The Athletic that he “plans to start a throwing program in March and intends to be ready to pitch by June.”  The 33-year-old southpaw will make for an intriguing one or two-year addition.

Honorable mentions: Tyler Anderson, Andrew Chafin, Johnny Cueto, Josh Harrison, Joe Kelly, Andrew McCutchen, Collin McHugh, Brad Miller, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Michael Pineda

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