Free Agent Contracts Gone Sour
Tons of research goes into any free agent signing, given the amount of money at stake. Still, one year later many have already gone sour. A look at some of the regrettable $10MM+ contracts from the 2009-10 offseason…
- It feels too early to throw John Lackey into this discussion, as he ended up giving the Red Sox 215 decent innings last year. But he does have a 4.83 ERA over the life of the contract. The deal was frontloaded, so Lackey will be paid $61MM over 2011-14.
- If new Mets GM Sandy Alderson could reverse Omar Minaya's Jason Bay contract, I'm sure he would. Bay is owed $48MM over the 2011-13 seasons, with the possibility of a $17MM club option vesting for 2014. A concussion ended his '10 season on July 25th, and he began the '11 season on the DL for a strained ribcage. Bay's Mets line still stands at .259/.347/.402.
- Chone Figgins' four-year, $36MM deal with the Mariners looked like a mild bargain at the time. 2010 was ugly, marked by an ill-advised position switch, a Don Wakamatsu altercation, and a batting average dip. Only nine games in this year, Figgins has time to turn the contract around.
- Randy Wolf provided the Brewers with 215 2/3 innings of 4.17 ball last year, but as with Lackey more was expected. Wolf's 5.9 K/9 was his worst since '04. The Brewers are probably glad to have the rotation depth at this point, so maybe the $20.5MM owed to Wolf over 2011-12 doesn't bother them.
- At $7.25MM this year, Mike Cameron is an expensive fourth outfielder for the Red Sox. They've got the payroll to tolerate the contract, and Cameron might be used more than most fourth outfielders.
- Fernando Rodney's two-year, $11MM pact with the Angels was panned at the time. You can't blame Rodney for this one turning ugly; his 2010 numbers were pretty similar to his '09 contract year.
- The contracts for Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa, and Mike Gonzalez also went sour in year one due to injuries.
Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers
The Rangers are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League Signings
- Adrian Beltre, 3B: five years, $80MM. Includes $16MM voidable option for 2016. Rangers gave #26 overall draft pick to Red Sox as compensation.
- Yorvit Torrealba, C: two years, $6.25MM.
- Arthur Rhodes, RP: one year, $3.9MM. Includes $4MM vesting option for 2012.
- Brandon Webb, SP: one year, $3MM.
- Total spend: $93.15MM.
International Signings
- Rougned Odor, Alberto Triunfel
Notable Minor League Signings
- Barret Loux, Esteban German, Yhency Brazoban, Brian Barden, Endy Chavez, Omar Quintanilla, Robinzon Diaz, David Bush, Brett Tomko, Luis Cruz, Seth McClung, Yoshinori Tateyama
Extensions
Trades and Claims
- Claimed P Ryan Tucker off waivers from Marlins
- Acquired SP Mason Tobin from Cubs after taken in Rule 5 draft from Angels
- Acquired RP Ryan Kelly from Athletics for SP Guillermo Moscoso
- Acquired C/1B Mike Napoli from Blue Jays for RP Frank Francisco and cash
- Acquired a player to be named later from Royals for 1B/3B John Whittleman
- Acquired cash considerations from Royals for C Matt Treanor
- Acquired a player to be named later from Braves for IF/OF Marcus Lemon
Notable Losses
- Cliff Lee (Rangers received #33 pick from Phillies and also get #37 pick), Vladimir Guerrero, Matt Treanor, Bengie Molina, Max Ramirez, Jeff Francoeur, Cristian Guzman, Rich Harden, Dustin Nippert, Frank Francisco, Doug Mathis, John Whittleman, Marcus Lemon, Guillermo Moscoso
Summary
The Rangers didn't sign Cliff Lee, Jim Thome, or Vladimir Guerrero, trade Michael Young, acquire Zack Greinke or Matt Garza, or move Neftali Feliz to the rotation, though those topics provided plenty of fodder for MLBTR this offseason. Instead, GM Jon Daniels gave Beltre a huge contract and tinkered at a few positions, capping his winter by signing an extension himself. For an added dose of drama, managing partner and CEO Chuck Greenberg was ousted for reasons unknown.
The Rangers were Lee's second choice, and they extended themselves to a reported six-year, $138MM offer that included major deferrals. Lee's eventual contract with the Phillies includes big-time deferrals in its own right, with a low first-year salary and a $12.5MM buyout at the end. Based on the information we have, the Rangers' offer appears better, and it was fair for Texas to balk at a seventh year.
Regarding alternatives to Lee, Daniels continued big-game hunting. We didn't hear about the Rangers bidding on the Carl Pavanos of the world; instead, they inquired on Greinke, Garza, Francisco Liriano, and even Bobby Jenks as a starter. We don't know the prices for Greinke and Garza exactly, though Derek Holland and Engel Beltre would have been involved. Holland might be close enough to his own big league success that abstaining was the right move. The Rangers ultimately signed a pitcher with ace potential in Webb, but I liked the move more when I thought 30 starts was a possibility. Now we're left wondering if he can provide half that, a reminder that Webb is nothing more than a $3MM wild card for Texas.
The Rangers seriously considered putting Feliz in the rotation, a move I supported. Better foresight might have involved signing Jenks or J.J. Putz to close early in the offseason, protecting against the possible need to use Feliz as a starter. Daniels shipped out a closer candidate in Frank Francisco, but betting against his health seems like the right move for the team that knows his medical records best.
After failing to sign Lee, Daniels shifted to another top free agent in Adrian Beltre. Beltre (pictured) and Young are both solid hitters, though Beltre has a touch more power. The bigger upgrade is defensively, where replacing Young with Beltre should net the team at least a couple of additional wins. The contract for Beltre was bigger than I expected, especially since signing him came with the significant cost of a first-round draft pick. The argument is that the Rangers received two good picks when Lee signed with the Phillies, but that doesn't nullify giving up #26 for Beltre. Daniels' other free agent touches – Torrealba and Rhodes – just filled a couple of needs at market prices.
Young must have an amazing P.R. team, having twice created a distraction in recent years by demanding a trade but still being generally regarded as the ultimate professional. This time he was "misled and manipulated" by Daniels, perhaps because the Rangers tried to trade him after telling him they wouldn't. The Rangers seemingly did their due diligence after Young's request, but the attempt to move him was half-hearted if their reported demand for top prospects was accurate. Young is paid about double what he'd get on the open market, and the Rangers are best-served using him at DH and other spots rather than agreeing to a lopsided trade favoring the other team.
The Rangers pondered multiple DH options aside from Young, making the best offer to Jim Thome but getting turned down. Once Napoli was acquired, further improvement of the offense became a luxury. If healthy, this team can hit.
The Rangers' rotation remains questionable on paper, though it was a year ago as well. If C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis can approximate last year's performance and Holland takes a step forward, they'll have enough to win the division. If the rotation looks suspect in June, expect the Rangers to once again battle the Yankees to acquire anything resembling a front-end starter.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Outrighted To Triple-A: Ekstrom, Wagner, Ishikawa
The Pacific Coast League's transactions page gives us the update on three recently-designated players.
- Rays reliever Mike Ekstrom has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A according to the transactions page on the team's official site. Ekstrom was designated for assignment three days ago.
- Red Sox catcher Mark Wagner cleared waivers and was assigned to extended Spring Training, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The Red Sox designated him for assignment on March 29th.
- Travis Ishikawa cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A, the Giants announced (on Twitter).
- The Dodgers outrighted pitchers Jon Link and John Lindsey to the Albuquerque Isotopes. They'd been designated for assignment in late March.
- Catcher Lucas May, designated for assignment by the Royals on March 30th, cleared waivers and was outrighted to the Omaha Storm Chasers.
Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals
The Nationals are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League Signings
- Jayson Werth, RF: seven years, $126MM.
- Adam LaRoche, 1B: two years, $16MM. Includes $10MM mutual option for 2013 with a $1MM buyout.
- Jerry Hairston Jr., IF/OF: one year, $2MM.
- Rick Ankiel, CF: one year, $1.5MM.
- Todd Coffey, RP: one year, $1.35MM.
- Chien-Ming Wang, SP: one year, $1MM.
- Total spend: $147.85MM.
International Signings
- Click here to view
Notable Minor League Signings
- Matt Stairs, Jonathan Van Every, Matt Antonelli, Chad Gaudin, Brian Bixler, Michael Aubrey, Alex Cora, Cla Meredith, Laynce Nix, Alex Cintron, Ron Villone, Oliver Perez
Extensions
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RP Henry Rodriguez and OF Corey Brown from Athletics for LF Josh Willingham
- Claimed RP Elvin Ramirez from Mets and SP Brian Broderick from the Cardinals in Rule 5 draft
- Acquired SP Tom Gorzelanny from Cubs for SP Graham Hicks, P A.J. Morris, and OF Michael Burgess
- Acquired RP Adam Olbrychowski from Yankees for OF Justin Maxwell
- Claimed RP Lee Hyde off waivers from Braves
- Acquired 3B/OF Cutter Dykstra and $50K from Brewers for CF Nyjer Morgan
- Acquired SP Erik Davis and cash considerations from Padres for IF Alberto Gonzalez
Notable Losses
- Adam Dunn, Nyjer Morgan, Josh Willingham, Graham Hicks, A.J. Morris, Michael Burgess, Justin Maxwell, Alberto Gonzalez, Adam Kennedy, Willie Harris, Miguel Batista, Scott Olsen, Joel Peralta, J.D. Martin
Summary
After the 2009-10 offseason, I wrote that I'd have liked Nationals GM Mike Rizzo's offseason if we could eliminate the top two signings, the $21MM given to Jason Marquis and Ivan Rodriguez. A year later, it's much harder to excuse the $142MM spent on Werth and LaRoche.
With any seven-year free agent contract, the team is really just paying for the first three seasons and hoping the player doesn't become a complete albatross in the final four. The players can provide value at the tail end of these megadeals, but it's more of a bonus than an expectation. I can see Werth remaining an elite player through his age 34 season, and as he hasn't missed significant time since '07 I can see him remaining healthy too. Though Werth's seven-year term shocked the baseball world, I could justify the signing for a team on the cusp of contention.
My beef with the Werth signing is the Nationals' timing. They don't have the rotation to contend in 2011, and while the 2012 team should be better I'm not confident they'll be ready then either. Assuming the team's top young players will really start to come together after the '12 season, why not make your huge free agent strike then? The Nationals actually tried to make their free agent splash earlier, with big offers to Mark Teixeira and Torii Hunter in past offseasons. I don't have a problem with accelerating the timetable, for example if the Nationals signed Werth and went on to add Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. But win-now moves have to come as a package deal for a team like the Nats.
Did the Nationals "have to overpay" to get Werth and make the team more appealing for future free agents? I agree with ESPN's Keith Law that the concept is nonsense. Not because players rarely take discounts, but because they don't do so because they liked the team's crazy free agent expenditure. Were players lured to the Rockies, Astros, Giants, and Cubs because those teams went overboard for Mike Hampton, Carlos Lee, Barry Zito, and Alfonso Soriano? Many bad teams have turned things around without the luxury of a signature, excessive free agent signing.
The LaRoche contract pales in comparison to Werth's, but I still don't consider it money well spent. The Nationals went well beyond LaRoche's previous contract, despite his 2010 decline in walk rate and increase in strikeout rate. Similar to Marquis, these are not interesting players at ten-figure prices.
Rizzo's other free agent signings were acceptable purchases for a rebuilding club, with a little bit of upside sprinkled in.
I expected the Nationals to bring in a credible starter for Willingham, but Rodriguez does have the potential to develop into a premium late-inning reliever. The Morgan trade struck me as selling low, and if the center field alternatives are Ankiel and Hairston, why not give him a chance to rebuild value? I understand the Gorzelanny trade, as the lefty can chew up big league innings and has mild upside. However, Morris might have been able to help the Nationals' bullpen this year, and I'm not sure why a rebuilding team gave up on Burgess.
The Nationals would not agree that their window for contention is likely to open in 2013. I respect that, but if the plan is to win now I expect the team to be aggressive in improving its pitching staff at the trade deadline and during the 2011-12 offseason after failing to do so this winter.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals
The Royals are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League Signings
- Jeff Francoeur, RF: one year, $2.5MM.
- Bruce Chen, SP: one year, $2MM.
- Jeff Francis, SP: one year, $2MM.
- Melky Cabrera, OF: one year, $1.25MM. Can be retained for 2012 as an arbitration eligible player.
- Total spend: $7.75MM.
International Signings
- Darwin Castillo, Igor Feliz
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Billy Butler, DH/1B: four years, $30MM. Includes $12.5MM club option for 2015 with a $1MM buyout.
Trades and Claims
- Claimed IF Joaquin Arias off waivers from Mets
- Claimed IF Lance Zawadzki off waivers from Padres
- Acquired SP Vin Mazzaro and SP Justin Marks from Athletics for OF David DeJesus
- Claimed SP Nathan Adcock in Rule 5 draft from Pirates
- Acquired CF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, RP Jeremy Jeffress, and SP Jake Odorizzi from Brewers for SP Zack Greinke, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, and $2MM
- Acquired 1B/3B John Whittleman from Rangers for player to be named later
- Acquired C Matt Treanor from Rangers for cash considerations
Notable Losses
- Zack Greinke, Yuniesky Betancourt, David DeJesus, Josh Fields, Brian Bannister, Gil Meche, Dusty Hughes, Bryan Bulllington, Anthony Lerew, Philip Humber
Summary
Once again Royals GM Dayton Moore spent the offseason focusing on the long-term health of the organization. Moore accommodated Greinke's trade demand, moved Royals mainstay DeJesus, locked up Butler, and dabbled with a few stopgap free agents.
There is a sense that Greinke forced the Royals' hand with his trade demand, but as ESPN's Keith Law points out, they weren't obligated to do anything. Law felt the package received from Milwaukee was more about "bulk and fit, but not impact." Granted, Law likes Jeffress and Odorizzi less than other prospect gurus, but it was surprising to see the Royals trade two years of an ace starter and not receive one top 50 prospect in return. Perhaps the Royals felt that Greinke's desire to move on would adversely affect his 2011 performance and reduce his trade value, and that their backs were up against the wall due to the pitcher's no-trade clause. He'd already rejected a trade to the Nationals that might have been superior.
Law was also down on the DeJesus return, as Mazzaro does not project as even a "medium-impact pitcher" in his mind. Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein profiled Mazzaro as "a solid fourth starter who can eat up innings," ranking him tenth among the organization's strong group of 25-and-under players. Ten Royals prospects appeared on a top 100 prospect list compiled by Law, Goldstein, or Baseball America, so the Royals can be forgiven for not shooting for the moon for one year of DeJesus, who was coming off thumb surgery. Not that a team can ever acquire too much upside, but innings guys are needed too.
Meche made the classy decision to forfeit the $12MM remaining on his contract, preferring not to have the Royals pay him to rehab from shoulder surgery. Moore did not spend the found money on pointless free agent signings, though on January 18th there wasn't much out there anyway. Moore's free agent strategy was to commit the paltry sum of $7.75MM to Francoeur, Chen, Francis, and Cabrera. These four aren't going to take playing time from top prospects, and Francis could even have trade value if he stays healthy. Moore has been knocked for finally signing his boy Francoeur, but at that price there's little harm in seeing if he has another 2007 in him.
Unlike many extensions, I don't believe the Butler contract was about arbitration savings. The deal pays Butler (pictured) $19MM for his three arbitration years, which represents minimal savings over what he might have gotten year-to-year assuming campaigns in the .300, 20 home run, 80 RBI range. Instead, the contract is about projection: the arbitration years become a bargain if Butler develops more power, which seems possible since he turns 25 this month. Plus, the Royals have a free agent season for $8MM and a club option for another at $12.5MM. At worst the contract provides mild savings and a free agent year, but there is potential here for big savings. And if Kila Ka'aihue and Eric Hosmer both prove big-league capable soon, that's a good problem to have.
The Royals have the consensus top farm system in baseball by a wide margin. Moore has earned the opportunity to build a competitive club around his top young players as they graduate to the Majors beginning this year. The Royals have lost consistently since Moore took over in 2006 and while they're a lousy team again this year, their farm system should catalyze a turnaround in the near future.
Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League Signings
- Ted Lilly, SP: three years, $33MM.
- Juan Uribe, 2B: three years, $21MM.
- Matt Guerrier, RP: three years, $12MM.
- Hiroki Kuroda, SP: one year, $12MM.
- Jon Garland, SP: one year, $5MM. Includes $8MM club option for 2012; vests with 190 innings in 2011.
- Rod Barajas, C: one year, $3.25MM.
- Vicente Padilla, P: one year, $2MM.
- Dioner Navarro, C: one year, $1MM.
- Marcus Thames, LF: one year, $1MM.
- Tony Gwynn, CF: one year, $675K.
- Jay Gibbons, LF: one year, $650K.
- Total spend: $91.575MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Juan Castro, Lance Cormier, Dana Eveland, Gabe Kapler, Mike MacDougal, Aaron Miles, Eugenio Velez, Trent Oeltjen, Tim Redding, Roman Colon, Merkin Valdez, Juan Rincon, Steven Jackson
Extensions
- Chad Billingsley, SP: three years, $35MM. Includes $14MM club option for 2015 with a $3MM buyout.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RP Blake Hawksworth from Cardinals for 2B/SS Ryan Theriot
- Acquired SP Mike Antonini from Mets for SS Chin-lung Hu
Notable Losses
- Russell Martin, Reed Johnson, Ryan Theriot, Chin-lung Hu, Ronnie Belliard, Jeff Weaver, George Sherrill, Charlie Haeger, Justin Miller
Summary
You've heard repeatedly that the biggest story of the offseason for the Dodgers was owner Frank McCourt's divorce. At this point the question is whether Commissioner Bud Selig will approve McCourt's proposed television deal with Fox, allowing him to settle his divorce and resolve some of the team's massive debt. While the situation surely prevented GM Ned Colletti from bidding on Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth this winter, he did guarantee over $125MM to 11 free agents and Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers were one of the most aggressive teams in baseball in free agent spending as Colletti assembled a team for new manager Don Mattingly.
The Billingsley extension was Colletti's best move of the offseason, as two free agent years were acquired affordably and a club option was included. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith estimated savings of at least $6MM for the club. Not to take away credit from Colletti, but it appears this extension fell into his lap. Reportedly, agent Dave Stewart recommended the pitcher wait until after the season but Billingsley instructed him to broker a deal as soon as possible.
Similarly, Kuroda (pictured) was eager to re-sign on a team-friendly deal with the Dodgers, and he never felt the need to field offers from other clubs. Re-signing the second-best free agent starter on a one-year commitment was a big win for Colletti, who at least deserves praise for the original signing in '07 that led to this goodwill.
Had he made it to the open market, Lilly might have placed ahead of Kuroda as the second-best free agent starter – especially if the Dodgers chose not to offer him arbitration. Instead, they extended him at a fair price in October after a strong 12-start stint. By early November, the huge rotation uncertainty expected from Kuroda and Lilly's free agency was resolved.
The Garland signing was the icing on the cake; a solid 200 inning arm fell to the Dodgers for just $5MM. Garland probably won't actually hit 200 innings in 2011, as a spring oblique strain should have him right around the 190 inning threshold that could turn this into a two-year deal. I liked the depth added by the affordable Padilla signing as well at the time, but since then the righty required elbow surgery. Colletti didn't out-fox other GMs in signing so many pitchers below market rates, but the moves do reflect well on the organization.
The Uribe and Guerrier additions were market-rate signings. Uribe rose to the top in a weak free agent market for middle infielders, but it's a sizeable commitment for a guy with a .300 OBP. His versatility should come in handy, at least, and it's nice to hurt the Giants slightly. The Dodgers were also the one team willing to add a third year for Guerrier, whose recent success has relied on limiting hits allowed rather than striking batters out. I'm wary of that kind of commitment to a 32-year-old reliever who struck out 89 in 147 1/3 innings over the last two years.
The Dodgers' pitching staff looks strong top to bottom. Scoring runs should be an issue, with the low OBPs of Uribe and Barajas and a possible lack of corner infield power from James Loney and Casey Blake. The left field mix of Thames, Gwynn, and Gibbons figures to prove dicey offensively or defensively, depending on who's out there. I'd hate to see the Dodgers waste this pitching staff, which includes Clayton Kershaw's last cheap season. To compete, they'll need big offensive years from Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Rafael Furcal, plus a few surprises at other spots in the batting order.
Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League Signings
- Jon Rauch, RP: one year, $3.75MM. Includes $3.75MM club option for 2012 with a $250K buyout.
- Octavio Dotel, RP: one year, $3.5MM. Includes $3.5MM club option for 2012 with a $750K buyout.
- Jason Frasor, RP: one year, $3.5MM. Accepted arbitration. Includes $3.75MM club option for 2012.
- Edwin Encarnacion, 3B: one year, $2.5MM. Includes $3.5MM club option for 2012 with a $500K buyout.
- Jose Molina, C: one year, $1.2MM. Club option exercised.
- Total spend: $14.45MM.
International Signings
- Jairo Labour, Francisco Tejada
Notable Minor League Signings
- Corey Patterson, Scott Podsednik, Winston Abreu, Ryan Budde, Brian Stokes, Chad Cordero, Jason Lane, Ryan Shealy, Chris Woodward
Extensions
- Jose Bautista, RF: five years, $64MM. Includes $14MM club option for 2016 with a $1MM buyout.
- Rajai Davis, CF: two years, $5.75MM. Includes $3MM club option for 2013 with a $500K buyout.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired C Miguel Olivo from Rockies for cash considerations or a player to be named later. Declined club option, paid $500K buyout, offered arbitration, and received #53 overall pick in supplemental round as compensation when he declined.
- Acquired RP Carlos Villanueva from Brewers for a player to be named later.
- Acquired 3B Brett Lawrie from Brewers for SP Shaun Marcum.
- Claimed RP Wil Ledezma off waivers from Pirates.
- Acquired CF Rajai Davis from Athletics for RP Danny Farquhar and RP Trystan Magnuson.
- Acquired C/1B Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera from Angels for OF Vernon Wells and $5MM.
- Acquired RP Frank Francisco from Rangers for C/1B Mike Napoli.
- Acquired IF Jayson Nix from Indians for cash considerations.
Notable Losses
- Shaun Marcum, Vernon Wells, Mike Napoli, Lyle Overbay, Fred Lewis, John Buck, Dewayne Wise, Brian Tallet, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Shawn Hill, Jeremy Accardo, Taylor Buchholz, Danny Farquhar, Trystan Magnuson
Summary
The 2010-11 offseason was another active one for Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, filled with low-risk free agent signings, intriguing deals, a major extension and the hiring of manager John Farrell. Pull up a chair.
A couple of last winter's signings, John Buck and Kevin Gregg, improved their stock playing for the 2010 Blue Jays, each contributing a supplemental draft pick to the club as a parting gift. The four veteran relievers acquired this winter, all in the $3-4MM salary range, must be viewed with Anthopoulos' draft pick obsession in mind. The Blue Jays also bolstered the trade value of Dotel, Rauch, and Frasor by getting reasonable club options for 2012. On the surface the four relievers will replace Downs and Gregg, but the bigger picture seems to be about future value in terms of draft picks or trades. The signings are also forward-facing moves in that the Jays' young starters might be their greatest asset, and they'll be aided by a reliable bullpen.
For further proof of Anthopoulos' draft pick hoarding, consider the Olivo maneuvers. The Jays essentially bought the #53 overall draft pick for $500K plus whatever amount was sent to the Rockies, the first time I've seen that strategy employed. Given the free agent contracts they eventually signed, it seems that Gregg and Olivo might have had trade value had the Blue Jays exercised their options, but the team either didn't forecast that or just preferred the picks.
Anthopoulos made more traditional trades as well. The Wells deal was a masterstroke, as the Toronto GM moved his predecessor's unmovable contract, clearing significant payroll space and even netting a useful player down the line in Francisco. Anthopoulos cashed in on Marcum's fine 2010, netting a top 50 prospect in Lawrie. He did take on risk in that deal, dealing one of baseball's precious commodities (multiple years of a top starting pitcher) while pinning the success of the trade on one prospect. The Blue Jays dealt their ace for the second consecutive offseason, a trend that is probably finished.
I liked the Davis pickup, given the scarcity of center fielders. And while the Villanueva trade is not complete, it doesn't seem that the Jays gave up much for a guy who had an 11.4 K/9 last year. I'm not sure why the Brewers found Villanueva expendable.
I'm a fan of the Bautista extension as well. There's risk in any long-term deal, but if Bautista is now a consistent 30 home run bat, $14MM per free agent year is a fair price.
The Blue Jays will likely become progressively more aggressive about competing in the AL East, starting with the 2012 season. A playoff berth could be added by MLB, and Toronto's goal is to begin an extended period of contention. They've got a respectable 2011 club, but this coming offseason could be Anthopoulos' biggest push yet toward winning now.
Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.
Giants Sign Doug Mathis
The Giants signed righty Doug Mathis yesterday, according to the Pacific Coast League's transactions page. He's already made a start for the Fresno Grizzlies. The 27-year-old had been released by the Indians last week.
Mathis posted a 5.66 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9 in 89 Triple-A innings last year, mostly as a starter. He was worse with the Rangers in 22 1/3 relief innings, allowing seven home runs and 30 hits.
Rizzo On Stats, Bench
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo joined Bill Rohland and Danny Rouhier of 106.7 The Fan last night. Here are a few highlights…
- Asked which team's success he'd like to mirror, Rizzo cited the Montreal Expos first, as they were "one of the prototypical scouting/player development organizations back in the day." He also named the Braves and Dodgers.
- Rizzo explained that he's recognized the value of statistical analysis well before Moneyball was published. He noted, "We have a whole staff of sabermetricians."
- Rizzo defended his veteran bench acquisitions, explaining that a team can't have young players at every position, and the veteran mentors won't take at-bats away from prospects.
Rockies Release Greg Smith
The Rockies released lefty Greg Smith, reports Jack Etkin of Inside the Rockies. Smith was part of the Rockies' haul from the Athletics for Matt Holliday in November of 2008, along with Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street.
Smith, 27, spent most of the 2010 season in Triple-A. There he posted a 6.12 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 1.7 HR/9 in 75 innings across 15 starts. Smith also tossed 39 innings across eight starts for the big club. He's battled shoulder issues since the middle of the '09 season. His best year was 2008 with the A's, when he made 32 starts with a 4.16 ERA despite some middling peripheral stats.